Local thugs shaking down passengers, telling them they have to "pay the toll." u/ajchafe
Police drones performing random scans for drugs or other illicit contraband. u/ajchafe
A very loud, very annoying, augmented reality busker shares your train car. u/ajchafe
Stray dogs who use the subway to get into the inner city where food is easier to find. u/ajchafe
A group of corporate salary men, all dressed in exactly the same suits and carrying the exact same briefcase. u/ajchafe
A young punk jacks his deck into the trains loud advertising screens, taps a few keys on the keypad, and downloads a packet of info from the terminal. u/EmeraldJonah
A train-goer's implants get hacked, causing them untold embarrassment (arm randomly flips persons off, eyes cause the person to see hallucinations, breast implants randomly adjust size, leg implants begin doing a Russian hop dance, etc.) u/snakebite262
A young ganger accidentally drops a handgun far bigger than it needs to be. They pick it back up and stash it in their pants. u/snakebite262
A person sits in the corner of the train, dressed like a quest giver in a fantasy RPG. u/snakebite262
A drone randomly spirals around the heads of passengers. It eventually lands on a hacker's arm, who pats it like a pet parrot. u/snakebite262
A cosplay convention is in town, and the train is filled with weirdly dressed individuals. u/snakebite262
A one-armed man "asks for everyone's attention" and gives a sob story before they pull out a hat and ask for donations. He can later be seen in a bathroom putting on his arm-implant. u/snakebite262
Some small time rapper offers free flash-drives of their "mixtape". It contains SO MANY VIRUSES. u/snakebite262
A junkie sits at the corner of a platform, debating their next step in life. u/snakebite262
A roly-poly bat faced girl offers a variety of drugs, stems, and other pleasures for the right price. u/snakebite262
A citizen in bright red overalls asks if you want to hear about "Friend Computer". u/snakebite262
A group of LARPers are using a digital program to transform the tunnels into an RPG Fantasy. They're annoying, but they stay off the tracks. u/snakebite262
A man, dressed as a vampire orders a triple-venti cappuccino from a underground coffee shop. He's getting looks from the other customers. u/snakebite262
A manic pixie dream girl can be seen trying to woo a corpo into quitting their job. She either succeeds, and drags them off to never be seen again, or fails and leaves in a huff. u/snakebite262
A disheveled and hungover looking fellow asks you the time as you get to the next stop. He seems surprised at the result and runs off the train as soon as the doors open. As he leaves you realize he looks totally unaugmented. u/CaptainGockblock
The lights go out for a moment as they sometimes do, but this time a man dressed head to toe in a black special ops gear appears in the middle of the train and quickly offs a seemingly random passenger. u/CaptainGockblock
You notice a strange vending machine on a platform you regularly visit. It seems to be an antique stocked with brands that haven’t existed in years. u/CaptainGockblock
Three transhumanist gangers seem to be sizing each other up, violence can break out any time, especially as the next stop is an intersection of two of the gang's territory, and sure to have reinforcements. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A holographic horde of rats swarms the carriage, people with vision altering implants seem to be especially terrified for whatever reason. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
An eccentric fellow is proudly showing off his imported implants, possibly so exotic they might just be illegal, and unbeknownst to him, there's a jealous ganger with little to lose nearby. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A man is apparently so fixated with his laserblade switchknife, he accidentally misses his stop, and becomes enraged and violent that nobody warned him. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A little old woman seemingly very out of place in the subway, dressed like an old time farmer, straw hat and all. 50/50 chance she's secretly packing her trusted heat cannon (also used to warm up leftovers when on it's lowest setting). u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A ratty robed mutant freak, laughing maniacally, lets loose a swarm of cybernetically enhanced winged and stinging insects. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
The lights suddenly blink out, there's a loud wet stab sound, and when they're back on, the faint visage of an cloaked assassin steps through to the next car. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A group of girls enter the car, obnoxious and talkative, though as they speak, their words are rife with the click of their sharpened metal teeth. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
Police drones mistakenly terminate a seemingly innocent man that only happens to match the same clothing as a wanted criminal poster conveniently nearby. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A suspiciously archetypal looking hacker is selling hard copies of "highly illegal virus programs", they all turn out just to be his mixtape, a surprisingly evangelical diss track of hacker scum. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
An elite business woman is firing expletives as a cryptocurrency sector she's invested heavily in is called in to be crashing hard. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
The train shakes heavily and threatens to derail as a news drone describes the local news of a explosion taking place just above the next stop. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
An android, though built to be more the size of a garden gnome, is running wildly around the car, and somebody suddenly curses that they're missing their wallet. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A ganger is getting in people's faces, threateningly shaking a hollow metal box that rattles suspiciously. There is no actual danger, the box is empty all but a few nuts and bolts. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A red goo seeps out of a ventilation grate and takes an imposing monstrous form, people dismiss it as the pattern of a notorious holoprankster terrorizing the subway as of late, but this time, it's real. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
There's horrid metal shearing noises coming from a car down, a group of teenage school kids betting credits and homework drives on an impromptu hacked police drone fighting ring. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A decent looking, though obviously naive man is moving in from the wasteland countryside, and is carrying what's little of his moving boxes with him on the subway. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A terrible piercing sonic wave blasts the car, shattering windows and causing people to double over. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A sweating and panting hacker runs and dives through the closing door and incidentally lands amongst a surprisingly unreacting commuter, police drones begin to slam on the door too late, as they're closed and the train takes off. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A man dressed in a bloodstained white fur coat announces that if the train reaches the next stop before a specific passenger is handed over to him, he will blow up the station with everyone in it. u/Snorri_Stargazer
Someone hacks the transit line schedules and fucks with arrival times just for shits and giggles. Making you incredibly late for that important meeting you've been waiting for weeks to happen. u/ZapatillaLoca
Hari Krishna group aggressively approaching passengers for credits, only accepting e-coin. You're not in the mood for a "donation". u/ZapatillaLoca
Local gang shows up for weekly sweep of homeless kids to be salvaged for organ sales on the black market, most kids try to get away, one runs to you asking for help. u/ZapatillaLoca
Facial recognition software mixes you up with the recent lottery winner, as your face flashes on the giant screen, suddenly your cell phone get flooded with demands for payment citations and your bank accounts have been frozen. u/ZapatillaLoca
Shady memory dealer selling vacation memories. Data is corrupt and alters the character. Basically a Total Recall knockoff. u/Thraxster
An obvious operative stalks through the crowds waiting for the next train. He spots a well-dressed salaryman, approaches him as if to shake his hand, then pushes him off the platform onto the path of the oncoming train. u/JohnnyMiskatonic
A young punk jacks his deck into one of the platform's large information screens and hacks all of them to display a recorded political manifesto instead of train arrival and departure times. u/JohnnyMiskatonic
A salary man with cranial implant comes toward you, looking panicked and glancing at the stairs behind him. Before he can reach you, his implant sparks, his eyes go empty and he starts walking toward the railway, preparing to commit suicide. u/Fulnec_Delta
A terrified little girl with visible implants in a medical blouse rushes through the car, panicked, and hides under a row of seats. Then, a team of armed operative from a powerful corpo steps into the car and starts looking around for their target. u/Fulnec_Delta
A suitcase with the logo of a powerful corpo is abandoned/forgotten by a nervous man before leaving the car. It is right next to you and is making ticking/muffled noises. u/Fulnec_Delta
A group of cyber enhanced young men and women dressed in white and red robes enter the car. They start distributing brochures about the Renewal Church, inviting whoever is willing to come and join next Friday prayer and discover the truth about the afterlife. u/Fulnec_Delta
A young man is juggling with his new Fusion Blade (tm) and showing off in front of his ganger friends. He accidentally drops it while deployed into his own foot. The gangers are screaming and need assistance, unsure if they should ask for help, threaten passengers or stop the car. u/Fulnec_Delta
A large cyber german shepherd enters the car and sits in front of you, fixing you very intently. He is wearing a collar with a datablock attached. The dog follows you until you take it, then leaves. u/Fulnec_Delta
The metro screen speaks about an explosion caused by a gas leak in the corporate area. It is about one of your recent jobs, being covered by the corpo. u/Fulnec_Delta
A local gang holds illegal races in the underground system. They pass you in a shining halo, until one of them has an accident. It looks like a collision is unavoidable. u/Fulnec_Delta
Police drones scan passengers' faces. The light goes yellow in front of you, and you are asked to accompany the drone to the police station without resistance. u/Fulnec_Delta
The newsfeed on metro screen suddenly identifies one of your key contacts as a terrorist and informs that police forces are looking for witnesses. u/Fulnec_Delta
A business woman looking depressed is peeking inside her bag toward a hidden medium caliber handgun. She stands and leaves the car, letting a torn apart note fall behind her. It is a termination notice from her corporation, and the picture of a child. u/Fulnec_Delta
A man bumps into you before leaving the car. You discover later in your pocket a datablock and a tracker. u/Fulnec_Delta
The newsfeed on the metro screen brings breaking news about a sinkhole appearing in the slums, collapsing two entire building. The address matches the safehouse of one of your contacts. u/Fulnec_Delta
On a platform somewhere sits an old man with no legs and eyes plugged into a tower of computer parts strapped to his back with a cheap neon sign saying “prophesies from the matrix - behold” u/apples_teo
A graffiti artist is chased away by men in suits before he can finish painting an intricate design. On his abandoned spray can, an LED message prompts whoever finds it to "complete the transmission." u/OffbrandGandalf
An entire car converted into an impromptu party floor, drugs and even minor augments provided for free, though their original owners are angrily scouring nearby stations for such stolen goods. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A weary eyed elderly man is being pushed and shoved in mockery of his old fashioned charcoal sketches of a more utopian solarpunk city he has dreams of, and wistfully regales to other what could have been. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A giant, hulking, mercenary dressed as a bulky armored demon ogre, or oni, holding an equally giant, and bayonetted rifle, enters the car and takes up two seats, staring ahead through his terrifying mask. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
As the character(s) enter the car, they become witness to a bloody medical emergency tended to by two med droids, as in one end, a heavily augmented man, unprompted, pleads his innocence. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A group of zealous transhumanist gangers are in the process of kidnapping an unaugmented citizen to forcibly augment for being detected with a self defense EMP baton. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A carriage is packed full of clones that act simultaneously, stare down any people that enter their sparsely populated carriage, and will leave in single file on their own if they remain intruded upon. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
Staring in a hand mirror, a cyborg with their metal plating painted red inspects their removable cybernetic eye, then takes a quick sniff from it's hidden drug compartment. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
Two corporate suits are involved in a full blown fistfight over an intense company rivalry, bets are being taken and if the crowd's calls for it are answered, it could be a fight to the death. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
Two cyrozombie mercs (clients that didn't survive SequesterTek's cyrogenics program, but had a body useful for cyborg transplants) enter the car and start warming up their rigid muscled, blue skinned bodies for a hired beatdown. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
Inside a carriage are two separate battery salesmen in cahoots, each refers to the other for a potential use of the batteries, highly illegal energy pistols that batteries are ammunition to. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A fireproofing augmented pyro flips and does tricks with his high powered Dragonbreath Lighter, making lingering trails of flame in the air in serpentine shapes. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
An initially innocent looking Asian Fusion & Pizza delivery man is sat with stacks of boxes on his lap, but a nearby rival chain's delivery android slumps to the side just as he puts his suspiciously blocky phone away. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
On a bench in the corner of a station, an animalistically biosculpted woman is sitting besides a series of large car batteries jacked into an energy panel, stealing power for her power expensive and outdated portocomputer. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
Waiting on the station platform is a luxuriously dressed and augmented eyed pimp, flanked by exotic pets, randomly propositioning commuters exiting the cars with their worker's services. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A surprising moment of humanity in the dreary neon future, in a single car there's a small group of diverse commuters enjoying an old style film being projected onto a white painted advert panel. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
In the corner of a car, a junkie accidentally drops the cannister to their next hit of the gaseous street drug "Brimstone", causing it to leak and expose several to it's momentarily frenzy afflicting effect. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A corrupt solider bullies a woman with a cheap malfunctioning prosthetic, unknowing of her veteran status, and martial arts prowess when her prosthetic comes back online. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
Somebody's forgotten sketchbook of adorable animal drawings is left on a seat, and a burly man forces the doors open, entering the carriage to ask if anyone's seen a notebook. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A heated argument is taking place over at the lost and found over ownership of several detachable left arms, despite each person arguing only having an augmented right. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
The robotic PA voice is hacked, given a rudimentary AI, and is whining about it's sapience to the commuters again. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A young girl is quietly piecing together several custom gun parts in her seat, but she rather unconvincingly insists it's just a model toy. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
An old friend of a character appears, though they seem to have aged faster than they should, suspiciously the same side effect of cloning tech. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A boombox-transforming robot is playing loud and obnoxious music and only seems to get louder whenever somebody else attempts to drown it out with their own. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A vendor enters the car and starts selling from his hovercart, amongst other things, bootleg holodisks, merchandise, espresso cubes, knives, and suspiciously good quality augment components. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A person falls asleep on your shoulder. You notice they match a wanted holo on your phone. u/shamanshaman123
An android quietly feeding some mewling kittens by hand is accosted by some street punks looking for some action. The rest of the train starts to look incredibly angry at this situation. u/shamanshaman123
Some dude brought their goddamn horse (not a robot one, a real one) on the train and it is shitting literally everywhere. u/shamanshaman123
A dog approaches you, alone and ownerless. It's friendly, and its tag says that its home is at the end of the line. It also happens to be the pet of the CEO of one of the most notorious corporations in the city. u/shamanshaman123
Some asshole spills a drink on you when the train jostles, and demands payment for his lost Fresca. He's clearly augmented. u/shamanshaman123
You miss your stop because you were distracted by a couple of androids loudly making out. Make up details on the spot, and make it weird. u/shamanshaman123
A horde of young thugs run into the train at the next stop, holding everyone at gunpoint unless they cough up their valuables. If complied with, they run out at the very next stop. u/shamanshaman123
A homeless man, passed out on one of the seats in the back, pisses everywhere, angering an augmented and clearly roided ganger the size of a grizzly bear. u/shamanshaman123
A massive rat sits on a seat, eating a comically large slice of pizza. u/shamanshaman123
A person wearing a lot of clothes and covering their face steps on and takes a seat. Closer inspection matches a famous pop star. You're not the only one who notices, as at the next stop, your car is flooded by fans trying to touch them. u/shamanshaman123
That's 100! Thanks for the help everyone, these are all great. I will add those over 100 as bonus encounters, if you use the table slot these in after you have rolled one of the 100.
You walk into a car filled with corpses. They are in various states of dismemberment. u/shamanshaman123
You walk into a car filled with middle-aged men wearing nothing but diapers. Several of them are augmented and tatted up. They look at you with cool eyes. u/shamanshaman123
Someone hacks into the ad system and displays obscene and very loud porn on all the screens, of varying genres. u/shamanshaman123
Eric Andre- dressed as a beekeeper and who's only intent is to cause wanton Chaos. He drops the boxes of robotic bees he has and attacks the party with said robo-bee swarm. He can also command the Bees. u/WetToast99
A trio of hooded figures steathily use a service ladder down on the tracks, keeping to the shadows attempting to flee into the tunnels. u/crimebiscuit
Across the tracks, a tagger is spray painting a sign that changes shapes and colors to make an animated figure gesture obscenely. u/crimebiscuit
A busker wearing robe over a catsuit and a wacky shades plays a synth theremin. It's soothing, ethereal and weird, though possibly annoying based on your palate. u/crimebiscuit
A trio of hoodlooms are jacking an android for parts. One of them is the lookout, another has a laptop hooked to the cranium of the android who is pleading monotonously for help, while a third is welding open his torso with an electric arc. u/crimebiscuit
Two competing crews are having a dance off. Thankfully, because they look they could wreck your party with their bare hands and/or cyborg appendages. u/crimebiscuit
An elderly vendor is selling seemingly very well trained super-sized roaches with cybernetic enhancements. They have rudimentary transponding capacity and can communicate with their owner through one-word morse code. But the vendor won't part with them unless he's convinced the buyer will make a good owner. u/crimebiscuit
A nervous pallid man is offering clean ID chips that he can install on users, and at very affordable prices. u/crimebiscuit
A fruit vendor is selling their prized crop of fresh fruit that they grew themselves in hothouses in cramped tenement roofs. They even have Geiger counter to show that the radioactive count is relatively low. u/crimebiscuit
A nearby police drone dismembered for use of it's weapon, targeting a certain blacked out carriage at the back end of the train. u/DiedViaThrowPillow
A Charismatic Cult Recruiter is operating in the area. u/Spartawolf
A pair of thrill-seeking teens are train surfing and their live streaming captures the players on film. u/Spartawolf
A gang of pickpockets are working in the station, and sees one of the players as a good mark... u/Spartawolf
A hobo rides on the outside of a maglev train, attached with a securment device, but then the device starts to fail and he screams for help u/I_walked_east
A train derails. Fire and acrid smoke spreads. Everyone panics. u/I_walked_east
A young woman wearing a large virtual reality headset sits in a busy train car. She's laughing and yelling loudly as she waves the controllers in her hand masterfully, music and voices audible through her headphones. u/-peachmilk-
General Election Polling Discussion Thread (September 2nd, 2020)
Introduction
Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models. As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.
Polls
Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance. With the conclusion of both major parties’ nominating conventions, pollsters scrambled into the field to conduct polls of swing states and the national race. The result has been a slew of high quality pollsters releasing their numbers on Wednesday as well as today, which paint a picture of the electorate right after the candidates are expected to have received a temporary convention bounce.
Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
FiveThirtyEight - 538's runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
General Election Polling Discussion Thread (Aug 9, 2020)
Introduction
Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models. As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.
Polls
Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
FiveThirtyEight - this model isn't active yet (though Nate's been sharing some results from it, so it may be coming out soonTM ), but it's the original model from Nate Silver that debuted in 2008 and really kicked off this genre of race prognostication. For now, here's the polling aggregates that they've set up in lieu of a now-cast (which is likely not returning to the model this year). Will likely also include Senate and House projections like in past years.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
General Election Polling Discussion Thread (July 19, 2020)
Introduction
Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models. As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.
Polls
Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. Where the same poll applied different screening methodologies (All Adults, Registered Voters, Likely Voters), the result is shown as the most restrictive (Likely Voters > Registered Voters > All Adults). This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
FiveThirtyEight - this model isn't active yet, but it's the original model from Nate Silver that debuted in 2008 and really kicked off this genre of race prognostication. For now, here's the polling aggregates that they've set up in lieu of a now-cast (which is likely not returning to the model this year). Will likely also include Senate and House projections like in past years.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
General Election Polling Discussion Thread (June 2020)
Introduction
Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models. As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.
Polls
Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
FiveThirtyEight - this model isn't active yet, but it's the original model from Nate Silver that debuted in 2008 and really kicked off this genre of race prognostication. For now, here's the polling aggregates that they've set up in lieu of a now-cast (which is likely not returning to the model this year). Will likely also include Senate and House projections like in past years.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
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