TOP 25 WIN OR LOSE QUOTES (of 169) | A-Z Quotes

you win you lose some quotes

you win you lose some quotes - win

This quote gave me a little perspective when things weren't exactly "fun". Hopefully it can do the same for some of you. We sacrifice a lot for a dream that we may never realize. Win or lose, at least you had the guts to play the game.

This quote gave me a little perspective when things weren't exactly submitted by GhostGoku to premed [link] [comments]

Listen to me: We CANNOT trust the short interest numbers this week.

First, credit to u/johnnydaggers for putting the pieces together in this post.
Many of us are probably watching the short interest % of float to indicate when the short squeeze is squoze. At this point, the hedge funds clearly know this, given how hard they've spent the last couple days using their MSM shills to announce "WE HAVE EXITED OUR SHORT POSITIONS!!! YOU WIN!"
There is a chance we're going to see that short interest % of float number go down at the same time as the price drops. Failure-to-delivers may also go down, at least in appearance.

This is probably a lie.

Failure-to-deliver numbers and the short interest % are just the tip of the giant dildo they're trying to fuck us with. If this thing is actually what it looks like, they have way, way, way more exposure to this shitstorm than they are letting on.
There are ways for hedge funds and their colluding market makers to hide their exposure to a counterfeit stock scheme / naked short / short attack. You can read all about it here: counterfeiting stock 2.0 (again, credit to johnny for bringing this to our attention)
If you don't know how to read, just scroll down to the picture of the iceberg.
If you do know how to read but don't have a lot of time, still scroll down to the picture of the iceberg, and start reading from there.
TL: DR-- using a bag of dirty tricks, hedge funds can "unwind" their disclosed short positions, without ever having to exit their real short positions-- the ones that are actually super dangerous and putting them at risk of insolvency. They are going to do everything they can to get us to sell, up to and including fucking with the disclosed short interest % of float-- the number we're all watching.
So watch the short interest with a titanic-sized grain of salt. It could go up, it could go down, but it's likely not anywhere close to their real risk exposure either way.
My GME positions: 4 @ 329, 2 @ 325, 13 @ 272.
I originally bought in at $14 and sold at $19 like a paper-handed bitch.Now I'm holding until $10,000.
I'm an ape, I don't know what the fuck I'm talking about, this is not financial advice, do your own research, etc.
EDIT: if you have a lot of time on your hands and want some more research on how this works and maybe a little peek into what we're in for, see u/Sleavitt10's comment HERE
EDIT 2: people are pointing out that that source I’m using says short squeezes aren’t really possible anymore, because counterfeiting can overcome any amount of buy-side pressure. And normally I would agree, but there are exceptions.
Like when a counterfeiting scheme runs into a multi-million-man army of enraged retail investors who are willing to buy the stock at any price, for example. And remember, the longer this goes on, the more they lose, so they are highly motivated to produce a quick resolution. The desperate moves on Thursday and Friday that ultimately failed are proof of what a serious situation this is becoming for them.
The sheer number of retail investors who are buying this stock just to fuck up the short attack is absolutely mind boggling. So long as we maintain our numbers and resolve, they must spend more and more money to get out of the hole.
Hold. The. Line.
EDIT 3: IT'S ALREADY FUCKING HAPPENING. 6 hours ago shorts weren't covering, and suddenly they've covered 30 mil on 50 mil volume? I don't fucking THINK so. And even if they are, that doesn't unwind the 2-3x as many shorts built on top of imaginary shares.
EDIT 4: to quote Brought2UByAdderall, "Fuck the stats. Watch the fear."
submitted by vinlo to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

(GME DD) One DD to rule them. One DD to find them. One DD to to bring them all and in the darkness bind them.

(GME DD) One DD to rule them. One DD to find them. One DD to to bring them all and in the darkness bind them.

Ok retards listen up. Been seeing lots of cucks writing small DD pieces of bullish or bearish shit. You cucks need to read this cos this is the whole fucking thing.

this is also basically my magnum fucking opus so upvote retards. Dont give me awards, legit go buy a powerup membership for a year. Cant tell you to buy shares because we gonna get closed down by SEC somehow.
im also not some fininacial advisor or whatever just read this and make your own conclusions degenerates. Im not fucking liable lmao but i am balls deep 125 shares @ 19 average now, its literally all I have on this earth.
TLDR: GME DD sumarized, Margin wont affect longs the same way as shorts right now. Dont buy shares on margin though and get ready to supply collateral regardless. Short interest is up and some smart retards are on our side. Read the post to raise your IQ from 8 to 9 though. 🐻 🌈s mega fuk and even posting high level bear shit to scare us.
Compulsory 7 rockets so you autists dont start having a seizure or something:
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Basically been seeing posts about "blah blah margin this, short interest this, WS to clever blah". Going to split this post into distinct sections but im no english degree cuck so dont expect any bear bloomberg level shit or something

1. GME is a fucking steal regardless of squeeze. Buy now or be left on a dying planet while we head to alpha fucking centauri.

So basically everyone here knows about Ryan cohen and his horsemen of the apocalypse coming to steal melvins lunch money. This man bought apple stock in 2017. Hes fucking rich. Hes also an eccommerce wizard, taking CHEWY from a measly 100k co-founded company to a $4 Billion company in 2017 at which point he sold it to petsmart or something. Its now valued at $40 Billion, granted anything eccommerce now gets money thrown at it like a stripper in a high flying strip club or some shit idk im a virgin so dont listen to me, so it may well be a bubble. Regardless the thing grows its revenue like bacteria doing binary fission on agar jelly 🚀🚀🚀🚀.
THEY SELL FUCKING PET FOOD. the market for that is like what? $1?. Gaming is going to the moon and is basically recession proof because of how cheap game is compared to other things for how much you get out of it. Any bears saying that Gamestop cant compete with digital or with amazon. Ryan cohen already slapped amazons head in with a no name brand. Hell fucking do it again. About digital everyone here already knows, microsoft deal, Ryan cohen also mentioned the possibility of having "Digital game exchanging" or something, image below.
Online trade ins. It says online.🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
He also mentions streaming, digital content etc and aside from all the digital stuff wants GME to move to a community centric structure where big stores operate with VR centres, Internet cafe, table games like Dungeons and dragons and 40k (rapidly growing somehow will boom post covid) and as we now might know due to this post:
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kypuyb/gme_dd_buildapc_kiosks_coming/
BUILD YOUR OWN PC KIOSKS. This is the literal smell of money. Go to your Gamestop to build your PC with your kid? Gamestop is already the goto place wher your parents go to get you your latest digital fix so now they can go build PC's and it cant go tits up?
Now for some pussy boomer talk (aka fundametals or something).
The expected Q3 EPS was -0.84$ or something close to that. The actual loss was -0.53$ but boomzoids only talked about the revenue drop. No shit sherlock its closing all its dead weight stores.
In the holiday report I will talk about a bit more below, 11% of stores were closed and revenue dropped only 3%. Comparitive store sales increased nearly 5%. They cant get enough consoles to sell so expect the momentum to carry on for the whole year I expect. Eccommerce is up 300% over holidays. In Q3 they reported 800% to date. In 2020 Gamestops eccomerce went up 24x. YES YOU READ THAT RIGHT. Online sales now account for ~33% of Gamestops sales now. This is literally gold dust for ryan cohen.
We are still trading at 0.38 P/S at this price. The average P/S for the SP500 is 2.753. Massive upside on these two numbers alone.
Burry got in this for the MOASS and the intrinsic value. At the time intrinsic value was like $22 and this will pump up as RC takes it to new heights.
GME in Q3 somehow halved the expected loss. Big Bad Boomer sherman somehow didnt fuck it up that bad by saying "omnichannel" at the speed of light. Yes the revenue dropped 30% but thats covid for you. As the PC kiosk post above shows GME now sells small items basically so fast they have to have fake stock lmao. The new console cycle always spikes the share price sky high too, as youll see in a crayon drawing later. The potential revenue that this console cycle brings in could be huge. Biggest ever is potentially a true statement and Gamestop sells every fucker they get. Combine the fact that they share game pass ( a massive hit) revenue from the xboxes they sell, something no other retailer has, revenue could be sky high.
Now I know you autists are starting to develop short term dyslexia or something but keep reading. This could be the most important piece of shit you read in your life. How do you think I feel? My brains overheating just trying to write coherent sentences.
Holdiay report was a bear trap imo, saw people saying the decrease in revenue was bearish blah blah blah. Lies. Comparitve store sales rose 5% and thats with some towns having like 4 gamestops. When the leases dont get renewed and these stores get liquidated (Also in Ryan cohens letter) they can just get this influx of cash and pay down debt and invest in logistics and marketing and new growth. Gamestop realistically needs like 1/2 the stores they have now and just need to improve efficiency.
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/349890 this article the messiah himself wrote. In it he states:
At Chewy, we had maniacal discipline when it came to how we spent money. The company-wide culture of frugality came from his example. Free cash flow was our unwavering governor of growth. We grew Chewy from $200 million in sales in 2013 to $3.5 billion in 2018 while spending only $130 million in capital, all of which went into opening distribution centers across the country and acquiring new customers.
Maniacal. Thats all I need to say. The guy is going to get to mars before papa musk and he wont even break a sweat. When FCF starts to catch up to WS expectations every analyst who donwgraded them is gonna get ditched and upgrades will start to happen.
So in the heading i said its a steal. That implies some future higher price target right? Well here is my guess for a conservative price target based on the information above and also some more I probably forgot cos im a retard.

The difference is where share price looks to be and where market cap places us is due to difference in outstanding shares (another reason shorts are fuk)
The difference is where share price looks to be and where market cap places us is due to difference in outstanding shares (another reason shorts are fuk)
This alone means if for not inflation adjusted terms we reached 9.8Bn or whatever the crayon chart says we should reach:
9.8/2.48 = ~3.95 3.95 * $35.5 = ~$140. The share price now to reach old mkt cap is $140 fucking dollars. Thats a 4 bagger from now. It gets better.
from statista :
Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in recent years, a 2.24 percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection.
If we take 2.24% inflation, the this share price target in todays money means we should reach $182 because of $140 * 1.0224^12, = $182 in adjusted. Thats more than a 5 bagger. basically we could see $10 GME price from short manipulation and buying more is basically a lottery ticket!
I really dont understand the bear thesis. The only bear thesis ( short term this one) was that margin would affect longs more but I looked at it on ortex and its basically bullshit. Buy shares with cash though dont use margin. Own your piece of GME dont borrow it. Bears just spout "DigITaL" or "BlOCKbuSTER" so much Ryan tweeted a shit emoji at them. All the bears think theyre clever. What the fuck makes those cucks special? How are they different now than the ones from $2, or $4, or $10.
Bears are betting against:
Ryan fucking cohen, buisness legend CHEWY from 100k investment, now 40 billion
Michael burry, Investing legend, predicted the housing crisis and is in GME since april
u/DeepFuckingValue , the new WSB god chad, now basically a whale
Reggie Fils-Aimé, gaming and buisness legend, former COO of nintendo
Senvest, a mega fund thats actively managed
Norweigan sovereign wealth fund
Fidelity, Vanguard and blackrock own this shit and are never selling they literally dont give a shit
All of WSB has now formed a shield wall against the bears
Microsoft gave GME highly discounted azure deals and free office use for all employees and a revenue sharing agreement. Bears are stupid if they think MSFT didnt vet GME.

Some valid bear thesis left now (the only ones left) -- Ryan Cohen dies.

2. Now some analysis on the short squeeze and some technical data on puts and calls and ortex data.

Ok everyone on here and their cat, dog, bedbugs and wifes boyfriend knows about the squeeze. Jimmy chill aka cramer even talking about it. Gamestop is literally the most shorted stock of all time and space. The squeeze makes every autist salivate because its basically free money while cucking big money out of like what 1% of their fund.
Although I know all you cucks hate shares, and hate holding, if the squeeze doesnt happen selling is probably the most retarded thing anyone could do. Its literally buy high sell low and you fucking disgust me. STONK ONLY GOES UP.
This squeeze is so monumental that its been sucking sharks in like fresh blood. Most of the funds where shorting this from 30-15 dollars before this year so they didnt really care. It all changed with 2 people. u/DeepFuckingValue and Dr. Michael Burry. These guys are as OG as it gets with GME. I think u/DeepFuckingValue may have even sniffed this trade out before the legend himself. Since then funds will have churned this through their rules and started jumping on this train. Ive been in since $13 with 125 shares. If I had more money Id be buying but im just some stupid student ok. Im merely a medium for this money made information.
The stats for this stock now short wise are, from ortex:
Concrete short interest as of 31 December 2020: 71 Million.
Estimated short interest, January 11th data: (This isnt predicted, this is from data in flow, has margin of error) : 77 Million
Short shares on loan 7 days ago: 50 Million
Short shares on loan now (This breaks the bearish margin calls affect longs more thesis): 54.2 Million
% of known float short: 147% as of 31 December 2020
% of know free float on loaned shorts: 108% as of January 11th.
Some guy on here took into account extra buying on wednesday, Institutions, Burry, RC's extra 7% and WSB ownership (something so stupendously retarded no serious firm will do it) that float on short could be in the 100s of %. Total short float now I would say could be 200-400% if the numbers are correct. This pisses on all other short squeezes. Some countries ban shorting above 100% cos of how autistic it is.
The recent hike in interactive brokers available shares is probably a mix of sell off on friday (remember some guys are now buying lambos with GME money. If they held they could buy 10), calls exercising and puts being covered and brokers ditching the shares. Nakedshort even reported 5 million naked GME shorts on friday. This is bullish as fuck because the best the shorts could do on a red market day was -10%.
Gamestop is still on the SECs threshold list for 27 days now.
This shows naked short selling and downwards pressure hasnt capitulated
Need rockets 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀:
Ok so now if WSB owns an estimated 6-8% of the stock and we all know to move over to cash accounts now to avoid margin calls, we should be minimizing longs getting margin called. Every bear on stockwits is a clueless cuck who spouts "blockbuster" and these guys dont even know what margin even is so my bet is the colossal 54 Million shares short on loan are gonna be affected by the margin calls more. Why? Because every long on margin is in the green, and now a true zealot/extremist/autist for ryan cohen so will supply their account with collateral to avoid margin call. Shorts are in the massive red zone. How do I know you ask?
Ortex data from Jan 4th 2021:
This is the data from ortex for short interest for Gamestop for Jan 4th
So this shows for jan 4th the estimated short interest is 66.98 Million shares. From the exchange reported 71 Million on december 31st this makes a lot of sense because the share price fell from ~21 to ~17 so shorts took profits. The shares on loan arent for longs too. This is all purely short data, and 47M shorted at $17 this shows.
These shorts are in a circle of hell we cant comprehend and makes satan scared.
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Now for the data for this week:

Ortex short data for Jan 14th for Gamestop
SHARES ON LOAN HAVE GONE UP. BUT 87% OF LOANED SHORTS WHERE SHORTING AT SUB $20.
Cost to borrow is also up, estimated short interest is up to a cataclysmic amount.
Longs on margin need to supply collateral, but we are in the massive green zone, shorts are underwater. Margin calls will ravage the shorts and sting the longs. We also have the uptick rule in place until the end of the day, so shorts can only short on the way up. Im not saying itll happen but this shit is skewed in our favour big time. we need to 💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌.
🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Seen a lot of talk about Gamma hedging and delta.
You realize that the fucking bankers and brokers dont understand gamma hedging right? That shits up their with the black-scholes equation and feynman-kac solution. Forget about it. The retards claiming to understand it are either payed by hedge funds or lose money. The guy who took out outs thinking options exercising and gamma hedging would lead to a collossal sell off on friday lost money on his puts because no one except some quants in a goldman sachs server room know this shit. The idea is simple about neutral delta on options that people take out, but the simple system interacts with every other thing in the stock market, and wow who couldve guessed it, like nearly any other element of the stock market predicting something by the day is nigh impossible. That guy talking about Gamma , Delta and margin calls is on weeklies. Hes no more autistic and equally retarded as all of us. Hes a chill guy though so dont berate a fellow brother.
Now weve established the likelihood of longs getting margin called is far smaller than shorts, on to the options distributions
Two images now: Top one is before the end of the 15th, the other one is after market close:

This shows the suspected melvin puts (51000 contracts, 5 Million shares, rolled up from july, strike price $24) and lots of big ITM calls.
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This shows the big put contract didnt get rolled over and the big ITM calls got exercised on friday. Large puts are underwater big timem while calls are in the big tendy zone.
These two graphs, show before market close and after. As we can see the massiver 51000 put contracts didnt get rolled over and the chances that those were melvins july puts rolled up is very high. They expired worthless. Lots of calls are printing big time while huge amounts of puts are worthless and bleeding money.
Something else we can extrapolate from the charts is that massive options trades are not present on the scale we saw before (tens of thousands).
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We are seeing a discrepancy in the number of puts/calls opening up at the higher prices with calls gaining fast. This could show that some funds are now becoming optimistic on the long or short term prospects of gamestop. There are also more puts than options and if we assume this for shorts vs longs on margin (without even taking into account that all shorts are borrowed shares and pay interest further bleeding cash) then shorts are likely on more margin than longs.
Regardless fellow autists my main point is two show that the bears are underwater and the bulls are flying high with regards to options.
Now lets compare this possible squeeze with others.
Bear in mind this is the most shorted stock of all time, but differences in free float change the share price differently.
Kodak went from $2.16 to $33.2
Volkswagen went from ~200 euro to nearly 1000.
Overstock went from ~$21 to $123
Blue apron went from $2.31 to $18
Ive been seeing some estimated that 1 million shares is roughly a dollars move in share price. This maths is about to be pretty autistic so bear with me degnerates.
$1 now is 2.81% of the share price. Everything in the markets is exponential and based on percentages. So if we assume a full squeeze of ortexs estimated short interest (This assumes no sell off and no new shorts, new shorts can be positive or negative depedning on when in the squeeze they happen) $35.5 * 1.0281^77 = $299. GME to moon. 🌑 .
This shit can happen. Hold on.
GME has squeezed and been manipulated before and it always happens around the console cycles. Shorts never win and they wont win now.

This post right here I found months ago and got me in the squeeze from the honourable and valiant u/Uberkikz aka Rod Alzman
Basically the crayon chart shows green (outstanding shares) orange ( short shares) purple (Market cap) and cyan (Share price). In 2006-2008 the share price rose in tandem with short interest ( Like now ) Until console releases when you can see an abrupt squeeze happend mooning the share price.
This happend to a degree in 2013 with the xbox one but worse conditions for the company and a worse console launch lead to slow short covering but the share price still mooned.
Now we get to the best part. History is repeating itself for the third time and the shares sold short are literally higher than the outstanding shares, which have been decreasing since 2010. Short shares are also at the highest point ever and GME hasnt had a brighter future, well ever. Ps5 and Xbox Series X. are the two most hyped consoles since the Ps2. This is setting up the foundations for massive price movements weve never seen before. This shit has literally never happend, ever. Uncharted waters and we are the captain.
For the insurmountably retarded autists who think that the squeeze has happend look upon this and despair:
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kwpf6k/gme_gang_there_hasnt_been_a_short_squeeze_yet/
IHOR IS A MEGA WIZARD
Ihor I quote:
A long-buying tsunami ... is the primary factor for the price move
Ihor Dusaniwsky is managing director of predictive analytics at S3 a firm similar to ortex. He told bloomberg that the squeeze hasnt happend yet and that this was long buying. If someone knows this shit its him. He was talking about the tesla squeeze in january 2020. He has access to resources we can only imagine. Barrons cut his comment that the squeeze hasnt happend yet out it was that fucking bullish. All the media ramming down "Short squeeze has happend" down peoples throats because bears are fucking scared.
The bots on stocktwits spamming bearish sentiment should show how rattled they are.
Edit: You fucking degens just enlightened me that cramer pump is real, funds are ruminating over the long weekend, and stmmy bills pumps stonks and that stimmy bill buys many an xbox. See you at andromeda! Also more rockets.
Edit**: Some autists thought lottery ticket was misleading so instead, gauranteed lottery numbers!**
Edit 3: RYAN FUCKING COHEN TWEETED THE HOMIE JUST TWEETED. PEANUT EMOJI. HES 1) NUTTING 2) SAYING 35 IS PEANUTS 3) GIF SAYS THERES A CHANCE, SHORT SQUEEZE IMMENINT HOMIES
Edit 4: Amazing post here showing that unlucky prize guy was wrong like I said. Ihor also talked about the hypothecation agreement.
Edit 5: This is true and I forgot to add
from u/luncheonmeat79 via /wallstreetbets sent 2 minutes ago
There’s also the chance of a ratings upgrade. Moody’s and S&P have GME at B3 and B-, which is rated “highly speculative”. Ratings are reviewed every quarter, and a review might be due this month (i.e. this coming week or next). Good chance that the agencies might upgrade GME to a B2/B, or even better to the next higher band (Ba/BB).
Edit 6: We are scraping 42 in frankfurt. Granted its low volumes but pre market should open at these prices I think?
Conclusion: Buy shares with cash not margin. Hold shares forever unless RC dies (Shame hes a cybernetic demigod), Melvin bad, Shorts fuk, 🐻 🌈 posting bearish shit are doing weeklies for the second time after they expired red on friday, GME to $200 without squeeze, Ryan cohen a god, GME is still a value play, Good luck have fun.
submitted by TitusSupremus to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

$GME Endgame - Game Theory & Best Scenarios

For those confused why BUY and HOLD are the investors best strategy - both to stick it to hedge funds and profit - this post is to map this out.
HEDGEFUND RISK
First understand what's at risk for the hedge funds. According to S3 analytics, HFs have lost $20B on $GME so far. Other reports have come out that hedge funds have lost 15-20% of assets so far this year. Using these two numbers we can make an estimate they have $80B at stake here (Citadel was worth $33B on Jan. 1st so I believe this to be close). Because Citadel and Melvin struck a deal, we can assume they are all in this together. This prevents a prisoners dilemma for any one of them and makes retail investors battle $80B vs. say an individual worth $2B.
Now let's assume short amount is 100% of float and they have reduced the high debt on Thursday's shady tactics. This means to calculate daily interest we take:
$300*.07%*50M = $10.2M in interest/day.
At $300 share price and $80B in funds as long as they continue to acquire the minimum # of shares needed they can keep this up for 21 years.
So that's their situation. The question they are asking then is how do we improve our situation and ensure we gather enough shares to keep this going?

HEDGEFUND GAME THEORY
Ok so now assume you are a huge asshole that steals from poor people and has no respect for others. You need shares and you want to exit your position so you can make money elsewhere*.* How do you do this?
There are three tactics likely:
  1. Settlement

2A) Test Pricing - Low

2B) Test Pricing - High

3) Work with GME to Issue Shares

Well this all sounds good and I need to get back to my yacht. Let's do some price testing and call up our buddies to solve this in a couple weeks. This can't go tits up.
Wrong. Retail Investors still have the power.

RETAIL INVESTOR GAME THEORY
So now you are a smooth-brained ape. What can you do to stick it to the twats?

  1. HOLD

2) BUY

3) FIND WHALES

4) DO IT QUICKLY

RETAIL INVESTOR WINNING - WHAT TO EXPECT
Now that we understand that what will winning look like? Well we have two outcomes:

  1. Successful Buy Wall Overwhelms The Shorts

2) Retail Investors Own All The Shares

TL;DR

This is not financial advise. Do your own DD.
submitted by Hundhaus to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Post AEW Dynamite 2/10/21

It's Wednesday Night. You Know What That Means. ​🖐👁💜
Match Winner Post Match Brawl?
TNT Championship Match: Darby Allin Vs. Joey Janela Darby Allin No
Cody / Lee Johnson Vs. Pretty Peter Avalon / Cezar Bononi Cody/Lee No
PAC Vs. Ryan Nemeth PAC No
MJF / Jericho Vs. The Acclaimed MJF/Jericho No
Women's Eliminator Tournament: Thunder Rosa Vs. Leyla Hirsch Thunder Rosa No
No DQ/Unsanctioned: Kenny Omega / KENTA Vs. Jon Moxley / Lance Archer Omega/KENTA Yes
Future Announced Matches
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Women's Eliminator Tournament

  • Winner faces Hikaru Shida at Revolution.
  • Single elimination, all matches officially AEW sanctioned.
  • JP Round 1 will all be on AEW's YT channel Monday 2/15 (If I understand correctly)
Round 1 Matches

US

Match Winner
Thunder Rosa Vs. Leyla Hirsch Thunder Rosa
Riho Vs. Serena Deeb TBD
Tay Conti Vs. Nyla Rose TBD
Britt Baker Vs. Anna Jay TBD

JAPAN

Match Winner
Yuka Sakazaki Vs. Mei Suruga TBD
Veny Vs. Emi Sakura TBD
Maki Itoh Vs. Ryo Mizunami TBD
Aja Kong Vs. Rin Kadokura TBD

Fill out your women's bracket here! Winners get a solid round of applause!

Outside of Dynamite
At Dynamite
  • Moxley says KENTA has been calling him out constantly. He says it's no surprise KENTA showed up, because he realizes the time for cheap talk is over. If he wants the NJPW belt he has to do the work. A war of attrition... on 2/26. But that match is sanctioned. Tonight, no. "Tonight is just for fun," he says.
  • Sammy heads to the Inner Circle dressing room and makes everyone else bail so he can talk to MJF. The team is hesitant but leaves (even Wardlow). Sammy says he watched the show last week, he knows what MJF is doing. He says he knows MJF is trying to do a power play. MJF says he thought that Sammy was initially just jealous because MJF was getting attention from Jericho. But he realized this is more sinister. He thinks Sammy hates Jericho. That Sammy thinks he should be the frontman. MJF thinks sammy wants to be the head of IC. Sammy says "Yeah, sure, that's what I wanted." MJF recorded him on his phone (or so it seemed) and Sammy smashes the phone and puts MJF down.
  • Tony Schiavone comes to the ring to talk to Lee Johnson after his first win after losing to half the roster on Dark. Lee says he wishes he had a world of words for him but he just doesn't. 0-29 he says. "They showed me that if you do the work it always goddamn pays off... They did this for me," he says.
  • The Young bucks are being interviewed about their loss in the battle royal. The Bucks say well, let's ask them, as the Good Brothers show up. Good Brothers said they have heat with "Private Sharty", not you guys! Our bad! The Bucks accept this terrible apology. The Bucks say, actually, let's have a title match next week! With Santana and Ortiz! The segment ends.
  • Dasha is with Hangman. She says will you be teaming with Matt again? Matt interrupts immediately. Matt says hey, we have something special!! Let's celebrate! Drink all you want, drinks on me! He knows the way to Adams heart. Adam leaves but then runs into Dark Order. They have an awkward ex moment.
  • Miro Kip and Penelope are here talking about their wedding fiasco. He calls Chuck Taylor a gutless bastard for what he did. Miro says it's not Charles' fault, it's Orange Cassidy. Miro is going to put them in the hospital with their friend Trent. We cut to the Best Friends. They're chilling with some champagne. "What did they think was gonna happen" OC says.
  • Dasha is with IC, asking where their missing members are. Jericho says there's no issue. MJF shows up wrapped up in tape looking like DDP for half of the late nineties. He says he thinks Sammy broke his ribs. Jericho asks where Sammy is but their music plays and the match must go on.
  • Sammy comes out after the MJF/Jericho match with a mic and something is in the air. Jericho says what's the deal? Sammy says "I told you, December 9th, 2020, right on Dynamite, if one more thing happened with MJF I was done. So I'm here to tell you, I'm done." Sammy says he quits the Inner Circle. He drops the mic and he heads out. Jericho tries to stop him but he pushes him away. He leaves through the face tunnel.
  • The Unchainable MARVEZ is summoned outside the stadium by the threat of a juicy interview. He asks Sammy why he's left? Sammy says he needs time to think and focus away from AEW. He leaves.
  • Matt Hardy and Adam Page are drinking. Matt says he's still buzzing from their win! Matt is a slimy carny bastard and he isn't actually drinking but Adam is wasted. Suddenly Matt is producing paperwork and trying to get him to sign some stuff to be in his group. Adam SWITCHES THE PAPERWORK while Matt is distracted by being a slimy carny bastard and signs his own contract, which he gets Matt to sign. Adam is having a fucking blast as Matt runs off unaware he may have signed his life away.
  • Tony Schiavone is with Sting... again... What's on your mind Sting, Tony asks. It's interrupted as tradition mandates by Taz who says they're taking his friend to "FTW World"( Fuck the world world?). They have Darby in a bodybag. They have it tied to their SUV and they drag him away. Sting leaves the arena in quote unquote "hot pursuit".
  • The Ceaseless MARVEZ is with Kenny at the golf course. Kenny tells him to shut the fuck up while he gets out of this sandtrap. Marvez asks Kenny why he's golfing when you have a big main event tonight with maybe 3 guys who hate you. Kenny says, dude, we're talking about wrestling right? (As he is saying this Callis is dropping Kenny's ball into the cup) Am I supposed to be studying? I'm already the best! He says he won't lose or miss. Kenny gives Marvez his golf ball but Don says "All he's gonna do is sell it on his MySpace page".
  • We get a short promo from Thunder Rosa. She says she has a few pieces of business in AEW. She wants to win the tournament, beat Shida, get her NWA title back from Deeb, and kick Bakers big nose in.
  • Tony is with Jungle Boy backstage. Marko is apparently okay and safe. But Jungle Boy wanted to address FTR. He says Dax slapped him so hard he nearly quit. But he won. He came out of that match a different man. He says he didn't "TELL ON HIM", he wants to make Dax his bitch.
Post-Show Poll Results
  • 1/27 Results
    • Overall Rating: 4.07
    • Best Match: Jungle Boy Vs. Dax Harwood (72.3%)
    • Worst Match: Britt Baker Vs. Shanna (33.2%)
    • Wrestler of the Week: 1st: Jungle Boy (57.9%) 2nd: John Silver (12.3%) 3rd: Dax Harwood (8.1%)
    • Full results here
  • 2/3 Results
    • Overall Rating: 4.34
    • Best Match: Pac / Fenix / Mox Vs. Omega / Gallows / Anderson (80.4%)
    • Worst Match: Hangman Adam Page / Matt Hardy Vs. Chaos Project (54.6%)
    • Wrestler of the Week: 1st: Rey Fenix (51.6%) 2nd: Kenny Omega (9.2%) 3rd (Tie): Britt BakePAC (6.3%)
    • Full results here
  • Best of January Results
    • Best Match: Omega Vs. Fenix (1/6)
    • Worst Match: Cody Vs. Peter Avalon (1/20)
    • Wrestler of the Month: Rey Fenix
    • Full results here
See the full archive of post-show polls here
Hacksaw Jim Duggan Buries All Elite Wrestling
With a wrestling career that's lasted more than 40 years, Jim Duggan's power level is beyond comprehension. If he hasn't beaten an AEW wrestler directly, he's beaten them through a few degrees of separation.
Could Hacksaw Jim Duggan defeat KENTA?
  • 9/16/86 - Jim Duggan defeats Tatsutoshi Goto
  • 8/25/07 - Naofumi Yamamoto & Tatsutoshi Goto defeat Hiroyoshi Tenzan & Tomoaki Honma
  • 1/08/21 - Hiroyoshi Tenzan & Satoshi Kojima defeat Great-O-Khan & Will Ospreay
  • 8/7/19 - Will Ospreay defeats KENTA
Yes, Hacksaw Jim Duggan could easily defeat KENTA
Hacksaw has previously defeated:
Kenny Omega, Colt Cabana, Hikaru Shida, Kris Statlander, Eddie Kingston, Chris Jericho, Darby Allin, John Silver, Evil Uno, Hangman Adam Page, Private Party, Alex Reynolds, Matt Hardy, Jon Moxley, the Young Bucks,Sting, and Orange Cassidy
And has lost to only one man:
The Exalted One, Mr. Brodie Lee
Outside Links
Being The Elite on Youtube
AEW Dark & More on Youtube
Visit /AEWOfficial - The Most "Official" Unofficial Subreddit for All Elite Wrestling fans.
Visit AllEliteWrestling.com for news, tickets, merch, and other info.
Watch Impact Wrestling On Twitch
submitted by SmurfyX to SquaredCircle [link] [comments]

$PLTR - The Big DDD

I don't get what you guys are worried about with PLTR.
Here's my personal DD on PLTR, you're welcome to read and do whatever you want. Other helpful info or pointing out mistakes in my DD is very welcome.
Fears preventing you from buying PLTR
  1. Targeted ads on your phone from Yahoo Finance or Zacks telling you PLTR = BAD!!!1!eleven
  2. Shills spamming "pLtR tO tHe MoOn" and :rocket: on PLTR thread comments.
  3. Last quarter's seemingly bad financials/earnings.
  4. Financials Moving Forwards
  5. Soros who owns 21 million shares "threatening" to sell his shares upon DPO expiry.
  6. DPO expiry 3 days after February's earnings and possible insiders and DPO holders sale and dip.
  7. What does PLTR tldr.
  8. Other Information

#1 Targeted Ads
Ads and articles are both paid for by someone.The fact that in the past 3 weeks i've been getting multiple multiple targeted ads on my phone related to PLTR since i love PLTR so much.
Ads are telling me that PLTR is bad, doesn't provide a dividend, they're telling me PLTR's fair price is 20 instead of 25 based on some financial model and have gone as far as to provide a list of alternative stocks to buy.
To me, this all screams: SCARE TACTICS
Additionally, the last few weeks of ups and downs in PLTR's stock price is another indication of the attempts to short the stock to sh!t and drive investors out. (For what reason? I don't know.)

#2 Shilling PLTR
I myself love to shill PLTR to people whenever i can. I do this because i legitimately think this company will do great. I work as a product manager in a software development house and understand what PLTR does. PLTR is not cryptic.Regardless, i think when people shill PLTR to you, they are right to do so as you're probably missing out on a great opportunity to make money in the long run. If you're looking for big gains short term, maybe try something else.
Shillery is OK, but at least give the facts.

#3 Last Quarter's Bad Financials
If you'd done your DD not by searching reddit posts but by checking PLTR's actual quarterly report, you'd know that PLTR's "bad" last financial quarteearnings were due to the costs of listing themselves on the New York Stock Exchange.~855million were spent on listing and stock related compensations and this is the big reason.
Direct quote by PLTR here: https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2020/Palantir-Reports-Revenue-Growth-of-52-in-the-Third-Quarter-Raises-Full-Year-2020-Guidance/default.aspx
We incurred a loss from operations of $847.8 million, which includes $847.0 million in stock-based compensation following our recent direct listing.
I would like to remind everyone that this is a 1 TIME THING. Put simply, this means that PLTR won't have as excessive losses next quarter as they did this last quarter.
Additionally, let me go into further detail on this and not just leave it to that.
ADDITIONALLY...
PLTR also had a higher R&D cost this quarter that just passed. Normally they'd pay 80 million on R&D, but somehow ended up paying ~300 million this quarter. No one knows why, but this is another thing that influenced PLTR's earnings.
https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2020/Palantir-Reports-Revenue-Growth-of-52-in-the-Third-Quarter-Raises-Full-Year-2020-Guidance/default.aspx
On September 30, 2020, in connection with the Direct Listing, we incurred $769.5 million and $8.4 million of stock-based compensation using the accelerated attribution method related to the satisfaction of the performance-based vesting condition for RSUs and growth units, respectively, that had satisfied the service-based vesting condition as of such date.

#4 PLTR financials moving forwards
PLTR is deep in bed with the government and the Biden regime although may look like it would be against using PLTR is in fact secretly very pro-surveillance e.g pro Palantir.
Here's some of the known organizations in the US Govt that use PLTR:
  1. CDC
  2. Office of the Secretary
  3. Food and Drug Administration
  4. Immigration and Customs Enforcements / ICE
  5. Internal Revenue Service / IRS
  6. National Institute on Drug Abuse
  7. DOD/ARMY - ACC Aberdeen Proving Ground
  8. Coast Guard / DHS
  9. DOD/NAVY - Naval Information Warfare Systems Command
  10. US Attorney's Offices / DOJ
  11. US Special Operations Command / SPEC OPS
Boys. The big institutional people know these things. You just found this out. See how deep PLTR is already in bed with the Government?????? Palantir IS the next Raytheon/Lockheed of DATA aggregation and visualization.
UPCOMING EARNINGS
I've done some quick maths and it looks like PLTR is more likely to be in positive earnings this quarter and with a 0.02 cent EPS target, we can easily assume that they'll destroy this with maybe 0.04 or 0.08 EPS. In the worst case scenario, PLTR's EPS this quarter could be somewhere around MINUS -0.05 ish due to interview costs and ad/campaigning costs that were not there before the company was listed.
WHAT CAN DESTROY PALANTIR
Now, there's big possible downsides and Palantir can fail IF contracts that expire are not renewed. That's biggest REAL reason for Palantir's balance sheet getting screwed.
I've seen a disturbing pattern with PLTR's financials and that's that every year, it's R&D cost is rising by between 150 and 350 million dollars. This is quite a bit of negative revenue and if new contracts are not constantly coming in, PLTR's balance can start going into the negative.
WHAT WILL NOT DESTROY PALANTIR
Some people may have concerns over the new left leaning government dumping PLTR. An article was posted that is behind a paywall EVERYWHERE that goes something like this:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/cdc-officials-urge-biden-team-to-dump-palantirs-covid-tracker
In my opinion, i believe this is inconsequential and that a few people crying to daddy Biden to kill a multimillion contract with PLTR is a stretch. Also we know the current new Biden team has his hands full and will have them full for at least the next 1 year with what's going on.
There is no time to deal with a few crybabies and even if he did deal with it and did decide to kill the PLTR Tiberius Covid tracker contract with the CDC which he WONT, these things take months and years to deal with, and by then the contract/s will have already brought PLTR tons of money and revenue in.
HOW MUCH DOES KARP AND HIS GOONS GET PAID
Short answer is... A LOT. The amounts below are PER YEAR. That's a lot of money in the hole and contributes to annoying amount to why PLTR is always just at the edge of just barely being profitable.
https://preview.redd.it/ba58nqcurob61.png?width=2615&format=png&auto=webp&s=55d45833faad4d60ea8dc142a9601c44b4cc7395
Palantir's prospectus 311 page document's 130 last pages are almost all exclusively talking about extremely complicated options trading schemes that are made by Cohen and others to make sure they can squeeze out a LOT of money out of PLTR.
Mithril Investments has existed from before and is not a new company. Owned by Thiel/Cohen/Karp as a way to launder and exchange options for more options and more money for all 3 of them. Also Shyam Sankar to me feels corrupt which scares me a bit, he's had some very shady dealings and has brought his wife in PLTR that gets paid 200k per year.
Prospectus Document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1321655/000119312520230013/d904406ds1.htm
I suggest you skim through it, it contains EVERYTHING about Palantir.
Palantir is going to need to have to be getting AT LEAST 500 million in NEW contracts per year to REMAIN BARELY profitable. It's doable in my opinion, but just barely and it's why they made the company public to try and get more people's attention and increase the inflow of contracts.

#5 Soros and his 21 million shares
First of all, i think we can all agree that Soros can suck it.
If you've read a few articles here and there, you'll know that Soros owns/owned 1% of Class A PLTR shares. No one knows whether he's sold them yet or if he's an DPO holder who'll sell 3 days after February's earnings.
Whether he sells them or buys more will be mostly inconsequential in my opinion. We see dips and pumps every day. He legally cannot sell his shares all at once, he'll have to sell certain amounts daily and over time. This will create annoying sideways motion as shares exchange hands and consolidation starts for 2-3 weeks until his and insider shares exchange hands.
Nothing special to see here, move along just a little draw down resulting in some consolidation.
PLTR is exposed to OIL more than anything, so fluctuations in the general market and general market crashes affect PLTR much less than other stocks. Also PLTR does not track ANY benchmarks. NONE.

#6 DPO expiry 3 days after earnings in February
To my limited knowledge, this is how BIG plays who are holding DPO shares usually work:
There's a total of 1.16Billion Class A PLTR shares currently (Give or take don't flog me). We are currently trading with ~250 million shares while the rest are locked away in the DPO.
When those shares are "unlocked" in February, the price of the stock won't be diluted. These shares already exist and are accounted for. They are simply locked. Also when they are unlocked, the share price won't simply multiply because all shares are now tradeable.
According to Palantir’s after-hours filing with the SEC this afternoon, the company has 1.16 billion Class A shares, 484 million Class B shares and 1 million Class F shares on its cap table outstanding today, or a total of roughly 1.64 billion. Only Class A shares will trade, and Class B and F shares are convertible to Class A shares on a one-to-one basis. On a fully diluted basis, which Palantir says represents 2.2 billion shares total according to its most recent S-1 filing, the company is valued at $16 billion. The difference between those two aggregate numbers comes from outstanding stock performance grants, warrants and other financial instruments.
What WILL affect stock price:
To note, regular employees will barely affect the price of the stock with their miniscule share holdings. Alex Karp, Peter Thiel and a handful of other high ranked executives in PLTR are the ones that will create a tiny but manageable ripple in the stock price.
What COULD affect the stock price a lot:

#7 What does PLTR do, tldr.
Imagine Facebook's database of everything about everyone & Youtube's Database of everything & Geolocation data in a database made by the US Army for known terrorist cells.
Palantir allows you to select and match varied data TYPES from several different database, combine it in any way you want and visualize it so that it's human readable by even the dumbest person in the room so that even they can see patterns and come to conclusion on a subject matter.
It's kind of like filling an excel sheet with data and then visualizing it with a bar chart, except the date you filled the sheet with can be anything and not just numbers or dates or countries and you can make various combinations using all the different rows of data to maybe come up with a pattern to something like how to best distribute the Covid vaccines in the counties in a very specific state in the US.
Literally what you see in SciFi movies where people combine random data by smashing keys on a keyboard and somehow find the murderer, the location of a terrorist or the percentage that someone will commit a murder in the future based on a lot of random data about that person or the area, country, family, history... anything.
While this all might sound super cool and amazing, it is. Maybe in 10 years time there will be a few more companies doing this, but for now, it's only Palantir, Circles, Alteryx and a few other private entities that do this type of thing. Many of them work with governments and are hush hush due to the kinds of things they use this type of software for (terrorist cells, warzones, etc) and the public backlash this could cause.
tldr: Glorified data aggregator and visualization platform/software with different access levels for different people.
PLTR is superbly positioned to offer their software to SLOW and Boomer like organizations like Governments.
Governments are stupid and don't have neither the time, nor technical knowledge to develop this software themselves for internal use. This is what PLTR capitalizes on and why Governments use them so much.
Governments could have spent the a fraction of the money they spend on PLTR contracts to make the software themselves but only for their own internal systems and use, but they can't and if they tried, they'd fail because technocracy in governments is not a thing. By the time they'd even complete a project like this, it'd likely be out of spec, unusable and would require further development and money and we know how slow and bad governments are at doing even the basics. Again PLTR wins because of this.
PLTR is likely NOT to be adopted by giants like Google or FB or other modern tech organizations of any size because they are not stupid. They have their own purpose built internal systems that they use to do everything related to data aggregation and visualization because they have the technical knowledge and resources. Buying PLTR for their use is a joke.
PLTR capitalizes on being general a general purpose tool and is set up manually by an engineer over the course of 4-10 days for each customer. The engineer customizes and configures the system for each company's custom use since the software allows you to do so. Regular aggregation and visualization software CAN do the same, but typically lacks data input types and features that PLTR has because PLTR has cultivated a special set of features over many years that were suggested by their existing clientele in battlefields and other places.

#8 Other Information
\*Big known PLTR Holders*\**
https://preview.redd.it/a404oalxrob61.png?width=1631&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c2dbcfac5a7ca207127771ec4e3133f8d943359
\*PLTR's Price List (2019)*\**
https://www.esi.mil/Download.aspx?id=7186

\*Personal TA and Crayon Mania*\**
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PLTnrjqL4dw-PLTR-Risky-April-100-200-possibility/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PLT5YcdCye0-PLTR-Schizzo-Technical-Analysis/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PLTCkCTvtqM-PLTR-PLTR-train-leaving-the-station-get-ready/

\*PLTR stock pumping events*\**

\*Similar Companies*\**

\*Known Contract Info*\**

\*Past and new US KNOWN gov contracts. Source* govtribe.com\\**
https://preview.redd.it/kbim7afrrob61.png?width=1392&format=png&auto=webp&s=9abc99d9995c4972919e275f407e1bba6382dfdd

\*Quotes from Won and LOST contracts from Federal Agencies*\**
National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIH) - WON
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) intends to award a contract without providing for full and open competition to Palantir Technologies, Inc., 100 Hamilton Ave., Suite 300, Palo Alto, CA 94301.
Veteran Health Association - WON
The pandemic-related data management and operational decision-support requirements have led the program office to determine that the Palantir data management and analytics platform is the only viable solution that would maintain the current operational capability, without a degradation in VHA COVID-19 decision-support.
AFLCMC Wright Patterson AFB (DOD - USAF - AFMC - AFLCMC) - LOST
Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) held meetings in January/February 2020 timeframe with potential vendors to determine their capabilities and their abilities to meet this mission requirement. They met with Palantir, Recorded Future, Altyrex, In-Q-tel and Semantic AI. From the information they gathered in those meetings it was determined that Semantic AI would be the only company that could fully meet the requirements of this effort without further delaying the project and incurring additional costs


Now friends, here's my position on PLTR. I'll be holding onto it for the next year. If it's not at least 300% by then, i'm selling it and moving on to the next stock. App i'm using is Revolut.
Also yes, i'm ALL-IN only on Palantir because i know my money will multiply itself in the short term. I'm not holding this till 2025 as others are supposedly doing. I'm selling in 2022 with 300% or more profit. PLTR is severely undervalued, underpriced because it's a DPO. Give it till EOY and we're going to be rich. If it was an IPO it'd be trading at 180+ already imho.
I've spent the last month and a half holding PLTR. I've gone full schizzo mode when it comes to PLTR. I lose sleep daily and i love it. I hadn't slept for 37 hours a few days ago because i spent so much time researching PLTR and scraping the internet for all possible information.
I come from an IT/Development background, so i understand what PLTR does completely.
My PT's for PLTR are:
https://preview.redd.it/4t0k1ujprob61.png?width=407&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b3a16265edafa290432e6b79f9009e3df99f495
submitted by Leenixus to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Post WWE Raw 1/25/2021 Show Discussion Thread

MATCH RESULTS
Winner Match Finish Loser Stipulation
Charlotte DQ when Nia attacks Charlotte Shayna Bazler
Charlotte, Mandy Rose, and Dana Brooke Count-Out Shayna Bazler, Nia Jax, and Lacey Evans
Nia Jax, Shayna Bazler, and Lacey Evans Leg Drop Dana Brooke, Mandy Rose, and Charlotte
Xavier Woods Shining Wizard Slapjack w/ Retribution
Sheamus White Noise John Morrison w/ The Miz
Miz and Morrison Skull Crushing Finale Sheamus
AJ Styles w/ Omos Calf Crusher R-Truth
Riddle Roll-up Shelton Benjamin, MVP, and Cedric Alexander Gauntlet Match
Alexa Bliss No-Contest due to Orton Asuka (c) For the Raw Women's Championship
IMPORTANT NOTES
* POLLS
Rate this week's Raw
Best match on this week's Raw?
SHAMELESS PLUGS
submitted by Darren716 to SquaredCircle [link] [comments]

Clayton Kershaw: “Big teams are not trying to win”

Clayton Kershaw sits down with Jorge Castillo from the LA Times and discusses a variety of topics including tanking:
On baseball’s economics and tanking:
“I don’t have a firm enough grasp on the economics to make a serious answer on a lot of this stuff, but what I do know is that some teams are having the ability to do all this stuff and go get guys and it’s teams that you wouldn’t expect and it’s teams that shouldn’t have more money than other teams.
“The Rays maybe get a pass, right, because they’ve proven they can have success doing that. Other than them, Oakland has had success doing it, but I don’t think any other team gets a pass. You’ve got to spend money to win. And then I don’t think this rebuilding approach, losing 100 games for a few years and then turning it around [works]. There’s only going to be one team that does that a year, potentially.
“So, yeah, for every Astros or Cubs story. there’s going to be 10 other teams that don’t win and they’re just going to have to do it all over again. And how, as a fanbase, can you accept that? The whole rebuild, don’t spend money for a few years, get a bunch of draft picks and try to do it, it’s tired. Every team does it now. Every team. They need to be more creative. Figure something out.
“There’s a lot of smart guys in front offices. Figure something out that’s easier to do than trading away a [star]. Just, for example, a potential Cy Young [Award winner] in [Yu] Darvish, who has been one of the top five pitchers in baseball for a year and a half, for prospects that could potentially be good but they’re 17, 18 years old. And [Kyle] Davies is a great pitcher, but to me, that’s just not . . . For the Chicago Cubs to do that, it’s not good. It’s just not good.”
Full article: https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2021-02-11/clayton-kershaw-candid-dodgers-andrew-friedman-blm-covid-vaccine
Edit: added another quote
submitted by PeteOGrande to baseball [link] [comments]

GME - EndGame Part 2: Cohen, Market Cap, Potential Investors

Hello again folks. This is an extension of my DD last week in which I shared some research on short positions, GME’s debt, and some speculation on institutional investing. Since that post, GME is up 75% and there’s been lots of good bullish / bearish DD on the short term.
In this post, I’m going to cover 3 topics, focusing on the mid-to-long term prospects for GME: 1) Cohen, 2) GME’s market cap potential, and 3) potential investors that could continue to pile in.
TL:DR; You need to think about GME differently. Not as a trader. Not as an investor. You need to think like a venture capitalist. This is an unprecedented opportunity, and the first time I’ve gone all-in - I’m more bullish now than when the stock was trading sub $15. If you’re in GME you need to get in with conviction otherwise you’re going to lose by selling when it drops.

Quick aside - my history and positions:

I’ve been a passive investor for many years. This is literally the first time I’ve taken an interest in becoming an active investor. I opened an RH account in August to start speculating on GME. My first post called out some cheap lottery plays that took my speculating account from $5K - $20K in 3 weeks. I’ve since posted a few times on GME, even trying to tell you to buy the post-earnings dip, and added more to my active trading accounts. I’ve taken $10K -> $130K on RH and $230K -> $480K in IBKR since slowly adding to GME since September.
UPDATE: I have deleted my positions in this post - will explain why in my next post. I'm still holding.
All that being said, thus far I’ve been thinking about GME as a trade - trying to get in at the lowest cost I could for the maximum upside on a near-term exit, but I’ve switched completely into thinking of GME is a ridiculously asymmetric investment with massive potential in the next 2-3 year timeframe - even at $35. Even at $45, $50, $60. That’s why I added roughly 2500 shares on Friday at around $36 despite adding very cautiously when GME was below $20. I’m also completely all-in on RH with options (mostly deep ITM, a few fds) - $0 buying power left.
Grab a drink, sit down. Let me tell you why I’ve gotten more aggressive, and probably why you shouldn’t worry about what price you pay right now, as long as you’re willing to believe and hold.

About Cohen (and friends)

From the recent 8K about the board changes (which you should definitely read if you’re putting serious money in):
As part of the Agreement, RC Ventures has agreed to customary standstill provisions*, which provide that from the date of the Agreement until the earlier of (a) the date that is 30 calendar days prior to the deadline for the submission of director nominations by stockholders for the Company’s* 2022 annual meeting of stockholders and (b) the date that is 120 days prior to the first anniversary of the 2021 Annual Meeting (such period, the “Standstill Period”), RC Ventures will not, among other things: (i) acquire beneficial ownership in, or aggregate economic exposure to, directly or indirectly, more than 19.9% of the Company’s outstanding common stock; (ii) make any proposal for consideration by stockholders at any annual or special meeting of stockholders of the Company; (iii) make any offer or proposal with respect to any extraordinary transactions; or (iv) seek, alone or in concert with others, the appointment, election or removal of any directors in opposition to any recommendation of the Board, in each case as further described in the Agreement. As part of the Agreement, the Company has permitted RC Ventures to acquire, whether in a single transaction or multiple transactions from time to time, additional shares of the Company’s common stock to the extent such acquisitions would result in RC Ventures having beneficial ownership of less than 20.0% of the outstanding shares, without triggering the restrictions that would otherwise be imposed under Section 203 of the Delaware General Corporation Law (the “DGCL”), and RC Ventures has agreed that upon acquiring beneficial ownership 20.0% or more of the outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock, the restrictions under Section 203 of the DGCL would apply to a potential business combination with RC Ventures as an “interested stockholder” (as defined in Section 203 of the DGCL).
This is critical: This agreement was the result of a negotiation between Cohen and the existing board.
  1. After his activist letter calling out the board and then 13D buy after the earnings dip rocketed the stock up from 12 -> 20, it was clear to everyone that RC was the reason GME’s stock was heading up. The GME board was afraid of a hostile takeover / losing their jobs. This agreement allowed Cohen and 2 others on the board as long as he didn’t attempt a hostile takeover.
  2. Cohen wants it all. In the activist letter, he publicly said “no” to just one board seat. He then publicly bought more as soon as Sherman threatened a shelf offering to dilute him below 10%.
In addition to getting added to the board, Cohen brought along 2 execs who built Chewy with him:
He’s not fucking around folks. He wants to build another Chewy, and he’s bringing the people who helped him do it the first time to do it again.
As a result of the agreement, he’s limited to buying up to 20% of shares until 2022. Why not 13%? Simple - Cohen wants the option to buy more. He’s not happy with a single board seat; he’s not going to settle for simply getting added to the board; and he’s not going to settle for 13% ownership.
Also, remember that Alan and Jim have 💲 to buy in as well. I haven't seen their holdings yet. Their time is worth more than their money and they've already decided to put their time in.

Cohen is not an exec - he’s a founder with an all-in mentality

Go read this bloomberg Cohen interview to understand his mindset.
  1. Cohen himself is an all-in person. Key quote:
    1. “When I find things I have a lot of conviction in, I go all-in*.”*
    2. Cohen is a founder that has gone through the successful creation of a startup. When you are startup founder, most of your NW is tied to equity in your company. You are trained to have skin in the game. You’re not allowed to think you have a safety net. You give up years of your life and bet everything because you have to believe in what you’re doing. Founders typically have 30-50% ownership of their company.
    3. “Cohen uses the word “conviction” a lot. He says it’s something he learned from his father, who ran a glassware importing business in Montreal where Cohen grew up. “He taught me how to block the noise from the masses,” says Cohen. “To have a point of view and have conviction and not waver.”
  2. He only sold Chewy rather taking it to IPO because of his Dad’s health. He cut his entrepreneurial career short and he’s itching to get back in.
  3. Cohen sold Chewy for $3.35B, with estimates stating he personally walked away with about $600M after taxes.
  4. Cohen has a lot of capital to buy more. After selling Chewy, he went all-in on Apple & WFC, which as of June was up 40%.
    1. “ Cohen says his portfolio, when including dividends and a few other stock holdings, has returned more than 40% over the past 3 years, beating the market.”
    2. Aapl was his largest holding, and is up another 50% since June 5 when the Bloomberg article was published.
    3. Cohen lives in FL - with no income or capital gains for individuals, unlike other founders who live in CA which taxes all cap gains as ordinary income.
    4. I’m going to estimate his net worth (minus his GME holdings) is around $800M-$1B.
  5. Cohen’s 9,001,000 (it’s over 9000! 🐲🏐) shares have thus far been purchased at something like an average of $12/share, for a total investment of around $110M.
So Cohen has put in $110M out of his $1B into GME. Does that sound like he’s all-in? Absolutely fucking not. Cohen’s going to buy up to the max he can this year (20%), likely by selling some other holdings prior to cap gains tax law changes. He can add more next year after the standstill period is done.

What will lead to Cohen’s next purchase of GME

Thus far, every RC purchase has been about sending a message.
  1. Prior to Q3 earnings, his purchases were signaling an intent to the board that he was serious about wanting to get involved. He also rubbed it in their faces that the stock price was largely appreciating because of him. From the activist letter:
    1. “We recognize that the Board may feel it is insulated from stockholder scrutiny after adding new directors this past spring and seeing a recent stock price uptick (which only came on the heels of RC Ventures filing its 13D)” (what a fucking burn).
  2. If there was any doubt about RC’s impact on the stock price, it was put to rest after Q3’s earnings, where the current leadership’s hubris and threat of diluting RC led to a drop of almost 30%. RC then bought the dip, shoved it in their faces, and the market GME again rocketing GME to 20 in a massive post-earnings recovery. Message sent again - “The market wants me. Let me the fuck in.”
  3. Now that Cohen and the Chewy folks are on the board, he’s going to angle for CEO. He’s not looking to advise GME. He wants to go all-in, to run GME. He’s holding the optionality of buying more based on the success of his attempt to take over GME through non-hostile means.
If you see Cohen buy more GME, he’s sending another message. This time it’s because it’s clear to him he’s going to be CEO and wants to max his skin in the game. If you see Cohen buy, it’s “CEO talks going well” - you fucking buy.

GME’s market cap potential

  1. Cohen sees a $200BN+ total addressable market cap for gaming by 2023. For contrast, Chewy was playing in the pet food/supplies market, which has a total addressable market (TAM) of under $50BN annually. GME’s potential is at base 4x that of Chewy. This does not even account for the pc gaming hardware market, which is another $35BN+.
  2. Chewy’s market cap is $44BN on $6BN of annual revenue.
  3. Chewy’s Q3 quarterly income was up 45% YoY. While GME’s quarterly income was down YoY, its e-commerce revenue was up 257% trouncing Chewy’s growth rate.
  4. GME’s Q4 early sales preview reported 300% E-commerce growth and annual run-rate of $5BN
In other words, even if you give GME’s physical locations no value, GME’s ecommerce business is growing 5x faster than Chewy and already has 75% of online revenue.
Summary: Chewy is priced > 7X times its annual total revenue. GME is priced at .45 its annual ecommerce revenue, despite GME having 5-6 greater TAM and growing its ecommerce business 5X as fast Chewy.
What. The. Fuck.
I’ve never seen a stock more mispriced.
People talking about $100 price targets are suffering from a fucking lack of imagination.
Even if you completely discount
  1. GME’s physical business
  2. its rev sharing partnership with MSFT
  3. its 5x faster growth and 5x TAM
and give GME the same P/S multiple that Chewy has on its ecommerce business, that puts GME currently at a fair market cap above $35BN. That means GME should be at least $500/share.
In pictures:

Comparing Ecommerce Revenue vs Market cap on Chewy vs GME today

Showing what the fair market value Market Cap of GME would be with Chewy's P/S

Fair Market Value (using comps) of GME is at least $500/share.
$35/share is a fucking steal. Who cares about the short-term dips as shorts try to weasel themselves out of their positions. The market will eventually wake up to this sleeping beast. In a year you’re not going to care if you got in at 4, 12, 20, 35, or 50. You’re going to only care if you’re in or not.

Potential Investors

An asset is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it, right? So are the potential buyers of this growing company?
Here’s a list in decreasing order of likelihood.
  1. Elon (Least likely, completely improbable, but cataclysmic event). Elon hates shorts. Elon, with TSLA, went through the pain that GME is going through. TSLA almost went bankrupt because shorts were pushing the price down so it was difficult to raise the cash they needed to survive. Sound familiar? Elon’s wealth swings more in a day than GME is worth in entirety. Elon could buy all the fucking float of GME with what he makes in 8 hours. One call from fellow entrepreneur and aspiring twitter-meme-god would absolutely wreck the game.
    1. If you are short gamestop, you are one meme purchase by the richest man in the world away from a fucking cataclysmic event. "Hey son, I heard you like games. So I bought you gamestop. All of it." 🚀
  2. Buffett (More likely, still improbable). I’m actually amazed that while Buffett & co were lamenting that there are no interesting stocks to invest in and moving to cash, that they absolutely missed the boat on GME while it was at its lows. It’s a complete value play right up his alley (in a business he can understand). My only hypothesis here is that the market cap is too small and he could not make a meaningful investment. Once GME grows to a more respectable market cap ($10b+) I can see Buffett stepping in and making an investment.
  3. Cohen’s connections. (Highly likely if Cohen is CEO). This is the big one. And I mean absolutely nail in the coffin re-pricing of GME for the foreseeable future. Go read this Harvard Business Review piece on Cohen specifically on how Cohen puts importance on raising money and the people that backed him.
    1. Look, I’ve started a startup before in the valley (unsuccessfully unfortunately). However, you don’t start a company without making a shit-ton of venture capitalist & angel investor connections. Cohen has stated that when pitching Chewy he was rejected by over 100 investors. I can absolutely-fucking-guarantee you that every single one of them remembers their mistake and would not miss the opportunity to invest in Cohen again. And don’t forget all of the investors who DID invest with Cohen and reaped the benefits with Chewy. While venture capitalists don’t generally make investments in public equities, this is a truly unique situation. Cohen is treating this like a rebirth, a new venture bootstrapped from GME’s bones. If VCs as a firm will not invest, you can bet your ass that those individuals will throw their personal money at Cohen. However this only happens if he’s CEO. As soon as he’s CEO, a single long weekend trip to the valley might mean 100+ investor meetings with the strategic pitch.
      1. My biggest fear here is that VCs/PE band to take the company private at some small multiple (2-3x) and then reap the benefits while Cohen turns the company around only to re-list it to us 5 years down the road at 30X the valuation.
    2. Thus far, it’s been us retail retards vs the wall street shorts. HFs shorting this thing have the advantage in both tactics and capital. However, if Silicon Valley money starts pouring money into this the game is over. You cannot believe the amount of money that gets thrown into startups with 90% of it burning up into thin air. $3B market cap? That’s nothing. Folks with Silicon Valley money & risk tolerance would have no problem betting on a serial entrepreneur making something amazing out of a company that already has a customer base, revenue, distribution - all in the same business (e-commerce) the entrepreneur already proved themselves in.
  4. You, and every other retard that believes. Look, this was my point at the beginning. You need to think like a VC here. VCs are the ultimate YOLO autists making million dollar bets and not seeing a penny of it for years. They are the ultimate 💎✋🤚. You need to decide if you have conviction for the long term and then buy in. 💎✋🤚 doesn’t mean selling at $100. It doesn’t means selling at $200. It means not selling at all this year no matter the price, and at least until you learn for sure whether Cohen is the new CEO. It means believing so hard that you 20-100X your investment in 2 years when the market wakes up to the ridiculous mispricing.
    1. Remember that if Cohen is elected CEO he can (and likely will) buy more than a 20% stake in 2022.
    2. Remember Buffett’s actual quote: "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
I’ve put every dollar I can into shares in IBKR, minus some April calls. I hold no covered calls except for some call spreads I had in RH prior to recent bump. I have April calls because I will put more cash into GME after taxes are done, and I know much cash I have to use. Calls let me cap the price I would have to pay now.
This is personal research. Do your own DD.
A wiser investor than me gave the advice of “Don’t aim to maximise profit, minimize regret.” If you’re not in GME yet, ask yourself how you would truly feel if what everyone here is saying panned out to be true, and you weren’t participating.
Oh, and of course: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Update 1: I'm still holding today, but I realized I made a pretty big mistake on the ecommerce revenue analysis. GME's 2019 e-commerce revenue was 1.35B (not 1.35B for the quarter), so divide my price target by 4 - $125/share or $8B market cap.
submitted by FatAspirations to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

If you're gonna be trading, you need to be absolutely certain and serious about it. It's a high level profession, not a hobby.

Lately I've seen a lot of posts about day trading. These posts are not about risk management, they're not about the amount of time, effort and commitment you need at this job. These posts are just repetitive sentences usually in all caps saying "don't day trade" "invest and hold long term". Investing is a good advice but these posts are low effort and not in depth.
So, here's an in depth about the reality of trading.
A few things:
1. "X% (70-90, this number changes every time I read this quote) of traders lose money" Yes it is true, 70-90%, whatever number it is, it's a high number. Why is this?
Trading is an actual profession, not a hobby. But unlike any other high level profession, it doesn't have any entry barriers. Getting into it is just as easy as clicking a few buttons. You want to be a doctor, lawyer, engineer, etc, you need to apply to universities, study hard, do entrance exams, study more, more exams, study even more for licencing exams and even more for higher degrees. All these entrance exams weed out the people who weren't committed enough. In case of trading, the free markets weed out (wipe out) the one's who aren't committed.
2. Difference between people who fail vs succeed.
People who aren't serious about it (losers) think it's easy money, they watch a few beginner videos on trading and a few clickbait videos like "How to use this x indicator to double your gains". They go into trades based on their emotions or based on the one technical indicator they know about. They don't even research what they are trading. They might not even use stop limits. They either go in and out too quickly, in at the sight of a green candle, out at the first sight of a red candle. Or they go in and have an optimistic number they wanna exit at, sometimes they hit it, sometimes they're left holding the bag. They go all in at their starting position, rather than adding in increments.
Where as people who are serious (winners), study and learn everything they can about all the indicators, not by watching 5 min clickbait videos, but by actually reading in depth about them or watching in depth educational videos. They practice on demo accounts or with small amounts. They research about the trades they go into. Based on their own technical analysis and strategy, they make a plan including the risk they are willing to accept for a particular trade and set stop losses accordingly. They enter their positions in increments, rather than going all in, crucial for risk management. They record and review their trades at the end of the day and adjust their strategy if needed.
It's a zero sum game, for someone to make money someone has to lose money, the unprepared people who don't take this seriously, lose to the top ~20% who have done their homework.
Questions to ask yourself before trading:
  1. Do I have the time to trade?
  2. Do I actually like the profession, do I like learning and studying technical analysis? Do I like researching about the coin and learning about its fundamentals?
  3. Am I likely to just watch a few videos and dabble into it and just give up?
  4. Do I wanna do day trading or swing trading or both? (Day trading is when you're in and out of a trade in few minutes or hours, swing trading is when you're in a trade for a few days, weeks or months)
Trading vs investing:
There is no "vs" in this. You can do both. Trading is a profession just like any other, it's a source of income. Diversified investing is for everyone, it gives you returns over many years. You still need to manage it every once in a while to weed out losers and add new emerging value assets. You don't want your investments to go tits up because of a few bad apples.
Some bullshit people say:
1. Technical analysis doesn't matter.
Ask any professional trader who makes consistent money, they all rely on multiple indicators for their entries and exits, one thing they don't rely on are emotions. Technical analysis tools and indicators are named after the mathematicians and traders who came up with them and consistently beat the market using them.
2. Time in the market beats timing the market
What a vague statement, when we all know it's a mix bag of things.
Good investors make bank, they manage their portfolio, recognising and removing shit assets, adding new promising ones. Bad investors let losing assets diminish their returns, watch their portfolio go tits up or barely make enough to account for the inflation.
Good traders make bank, they know how to manage risk, how to maximize returns by adding to a winning position and having an exit strategy. Bad traders go all in with each trade, without a well formed strategy, they trade based on hopes, greed and fear.
Q. I want to invest/trade. How do I start?
For Investing:
For trading:
Moral of the story, it's a good idea to let newcomers know that trading is an actual profession that requires studying, time and effort. But don't make shitposts about day trading if you don't know anything about it, or you don't like it, or because you were a shit trader and lost money.
EDIT: There are too many comments to respond to. Some people think I'm trying to encourage people to trade or vice-versa. Some people think I'm trying to gatekeep and discourage others from crypto, I'm not. Some people think I'm trying to tell people what to do with their money. I'm not, my whole point was to inform newbies, the reality of trading and that they need to learn and be good at risk management if they are thinking of this as a way to make money. Some people think TA doesn't work because once in a year or two the market goes tits up, that's where your risk management comes in. Indicators, as the name suggests are indicators (a probability) of where things are gonna go, not certainty. At the end of the day its your money, I'm not your mom or your financial advisor, I'm sorry if I sounded like your mom or your financial advisor. Whether you day trade, or swing trade or invest or everything or nothing, it's upto you. My only intention was to point out some things (good and bad) about trading and investing.
submitted by damittydam to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Daytona 500: Why Does It Matter? - r/Formula1 Editorial Team

By Phillip Barton (u/museproducer) and Matt 'Trumpets' Ragsdale (u/mattpt55)
Starting with this one, the Editorial Team will offer some features also in audio format. You can find this one here in the voice of the authors.
If you rather download it, you can do so following this link.
Before we begin, we need to give a special thank you to the moderators at NASCAR. They joined us in this project and have been ever willing to help us with information on rules and unique facts about the race, and answering our questions about the sport as a whole.
And we would be remiss to not give a special thank you to u/the_colbeast, whose seemingly endless vault of information about NASCAR has been invaluable to us for this weekend and hopefully for many to come in the future.
Thank you so much, and we hope to have further collaborations with you all in the future!

Intro

The Daytona 500 is one of the most famous races in motorsports. It is held in the same way as the Indianapolis 500, Monaco Grand Prix, Bathurst 1000, or 24 Hours of Le Mans for many fans. And yet, for most F1 fans, it is hard to look at the Daytona 500 and think of it as being in the same league as a Formula 1 Grand Prix at tracks like Spa or Silverstone.
In Formula 1, cars are made to be as lightweight as possible, made of mostly composite materials. In NASCAR, cars are still made with a steel tube chassis covered with a mixture of carbon fibekevlar and fiberglass body panels.
While a Formula 1 car is powered by a V6 hybrid power unit with around 1000 hp depending on the power unit manufacturer, in NASCAR they are still using the throaty carbureted V8 made by Toyota, Ford or Chevy (depending on the team), with an output of about 750 hp.
Ed. note: apologies for the slip up here - we got our history and current day wires crossed.
A Formula 1 car is typically developed from before the start of the season onward, with changing aero parts on the car occurring regularly sometimes from race to race or even from session to session. In NASCAR, the body of the cars stay relatively the same, with different aero packages required depending on the track as mandated by NASCAR’s governing body. And that is just the differences in the cars.
So what then is the allure for an F1 fan to watch the Daytona 500? As far as things are concerned these are two very different sports under the wide umbrella that is motorsport as a whole. Formula 1’s fanbase is even seen to be of a very different culture, with international reach and an image of being a wealthy gentleman's sport, whereas NASCAR comes off as a more simplistic, blue-collar sport with roots tied to the United States of America alone. Yet Formula 1 drivers have appeared in NASCAR stock cars for decades.
What follows is an attempt to convince you, a Formula 1 fan, to give this race a shot. To accomplish that, we will have to go back to before the first Daytona 500. Back to a time before the existence of the Daytona International Speedway even, when stock cars were raced on the sandy beaches of Daytona, instead of the asphalt speedway we know today.

Daytona’s History

From the Beginning to the End of the Petty Era

The Daytona 500 heralds the start of the NASCAR season and, as with most races, it can trace its origin back to a place, Daytona Beach, a man (Bill France Sr.) and a date (December 14, 1947), when the idea of NASCAR was first conceived at the Streamline Hotel.
Bill France had the meeting because, as a driver, he was getting increasingly tired of shady promoters bogarting the prize money after races ended. He realized, much like Bernie Ecclestone would do much later in F1, that if he organized the teams and drivers, they would be able to control (or at least influence) their destiny.
By the time the meeting took place, however, stock car racing was very much an established regional thing, with its mythic origins reaching back to the roots of Prohibition (which for those who are not from the USA, was a shocking time between 1920 and 1933 when all alcohol was illegal – not that it mattered, as the country drank more than ever).
In an effort to keep the Roaring Twenties parties going, illegal stills would produce an alcohol know locally in the South as moonshine, which intrepid drivers (also known as bootleggers) would then take from isolated mountain tops in the Appalachian Mountains down to more populated regions, usually at a high rate of speed and often being chased by the local constabulary as well. This obviously started an arms race between the police and the bootleggers, leading to both sides searching for ever-increasing performance, either to reach their delivery points with minimal interference or to apprehend the law-breakers.
Once Prohibition was over, this should have been the end of bootlegging and the need for fast cars, right? Nothing of the sort happened. The bootleggers were now in the business of evading taxes and drivers had a new weapon: the Ford V-8 engine, which in a fit of cosmic irony was invented by a teetotaller, Henry Ford. He had even banned his workers from drinking, but ultimately he helped give rise to a sport that floated to prominence on the backs of rivers of whiskey.
For it turns out, not being satisfied with risking imminent death in a blaze of high proof glory while being chased at insane speeds down back roads, bootleggers began having contests to see whose car was fastest. By the late 1930s, these were beginning to be regular occurrences that would draw crowds and by the time Bill France got around to organizing NASCAR a decade later, there were already purpose built venues for the racing of said cars.
If, perchance, you were to be racing at Daytona International Speedway in the 500, and you had the mental capacity, at close to 200 mph (320 kph) and running inches from your competitors, to glance up, you would see the words "World Center of Racing" plastered across the top of the grandstands as you crossed the finish line. A bold claim to be sure, but one rooted in reality if one travels far enough back in time, to the turn of the previous century.
The start of Daytona as a race venue goes back to 1902, when a race between Ransom Olds, founder of Oldsmobile and Alexander Winston, founder of Winston Motor Works, staged a race on the hard packed sands. The width of the beach, 500 feet, and the length, 27 miles, made it perfect for land speed record attempts. Fifteen were made, culminating with Sir Malcolm Campbell (there was an ongoing rivalry between British and USA drivers), who in 1935 did a 276.82 mph (445 kph) run. On a beach...
In addition to the land speed record attempts, 13 other organized races were held on the beach, and when the clubhouse was built close to the Daytona portion of the beach, the name stuck.
In 1936, the city of Daytona chucked up a purse, and hired Sig Haugdahl to design a course and organize the event. Sig used the road that ran parallel to the beach, A1A, to make a 3.2 mile circuit.
Although the race was a disaster, with the city losing money and the race having to be red flagged due to the course becoming undriveable, the following year the Elks Club was willing to give it a go, although they too lost money and decided that perhaps race promotion was better left to the experts.
Which is where Bill France stepped in. In 1938, his first year organizing the race, the race at Daytona made money for the first time. The second time, he made even more (US$20,000 to be exact) and, despite being a competitive driver, it began to become increasingly obvious which side of the bread his butter was on.
World War II interrupted his run of success, but once NASCAR was formed two years after the war was over, it began to sanction the races on the beach as stock cars were becoming an increasingly popular attraction. By 1953, France knew that the venue was beginning to limit what he could achieve and thus the plans for the current track were born. The old Road Course was used for the last time in 1958 and, in 1959, the event moved to the brand new 2.5 mile tri-oval super speedway for the inaugural Daytona 500.
That first race did not disappoint the roughly 41,000 fans gathered either, with a 3-wide finish that took 3 days to decide as Lee Petty crossed the line with Johnny Beauchamp and Joe Weatherly. Beauchamp was declared victor, but Petty protested and after 3 days and reference to a newsreel of the finish, Petty was announced as the actual winner. In later years, Petty would opine that France knew he had won and had done it on purpose, to generate publicity for the race.
The following year, the race was won by Junior Johnson, who managed the feat despite being in a car that was nearly 22 mph down on top speed. After noticing in practice that he could trail a faster car without losing time, he also realized he could "slingshot" by the faster car as well. He used this tactic to win the race and this innovation was rapidly copied by other drivers leading to the sophisticated use of drafting, still in vogue to this day with modern drivers on all superspeedway races.
The 1962 race was won by Fireball Roberts, and it was the third straight year he had started on pole. That win also was the second in a row for team owner and legendary mechanic Smokey Yunick, which made him the first owner to win the race more than once.
Smokey was also legendary for dancing on the head of a regulation, a trait shared by many F1 legends. So much so that he was often referred to as the American Colin Chapman, though looking at the dates it could well have swung the other way. Perhaps the most talked about episode of his creative interpretations of regulations was his 1966 car driven by Curtis Turner.
It was so much faster that everyone knew he was cheating, but no one could figure out how. Eventually, it was discovered that the roof had been lowered and modified, the windows had been altered and the floor raised, allowing him to lower the car and making it effectively 7/8 the aerodynamic profile of an actual stock car. This quite naturally led to some rapid rewriting of the scrutineering procedures.
Smokey was also renowned for his expertise with fuel systems: at one race, after installing 11 feet of extra tubing to add 5 gallons of extra fuel capacity, NASCAR officials pulled the fuel tank for inspection as they were suspicious and told him they had 9 items he needed to fix before the race. His response was "better make it ten" as he started the car sans fuel tank and drove it back to the pits. He also used a basketball in the fuel tank that was inflated when capacity was checked and deflated when the car was fueled for the race. Smokey's mindset was perhaps best illustrated by a quote from his autobiography "All those other guys were cheatin' ten times worse than us, so it was just self-defense".
In 1964, Richard Petty (nicknamed "The King") stood atop the podium for the first time in the history of the Daytona 500, the start of the winningest run in the history of the race and at the beginnings of a career that also saw him win more races than any driver in NASCAR ever. At the end of it all he would tally 200 victories, 123 poles, and 7 Daytona 500 wins, along with 27 wins in one season, 1,027 starts and 10 consecutive wins, all of them records, in a career that has yet to be approached by any driver since.
It was 1963 that put him on the map in NASCAR, running a Plymouth with a Hemi engine. The engine was so dominant that he crushed the 1964 Daytona; not only did he win, leading 184 of the 200 laps, but NASCAR promptly banned the engine for the following season, leading to a boycott of NASCAR by Chrysler.
The 1966 season was set to be the last hoorah of the so-called Generation 1 cars. They were nothing more than a stock frame and body, with the doors strapped shut and a heavy-duty rear axle to keep the car from flipping. That season saw Petty become the first driver to win the Daytona 500 two times. This time round was much less of a walk over for The King as he had to come from 2 laps down after tire troubles early to retake the lead on lap 113 before going on to win by more than a full lap, the work by his pit crew crucial to his victory.
The following season, with the debut of the Generation 2 cars, teams could now use a modified frame. Even though that would be the year Petty would go on to notch his 27 wins (a season record), it would be an upstart and the only non-American ever to win the 500 (by birth at least): Mario Andretti. The race that year featured 36 lead changes and 54 laps of yellow flag running. Innes Ireland, who had just raced his last season in F1 the previous year, also took part that year (he finished in 27th place, out of 50 participants).
Petty would not win again until 1971, and despite the long shadow he cast over NASCAR for well over two decades, other names rose to prominence during his dry spell at the 500. Cale and LeeRoy Yarbrough (amazingly unrelated to one another) would notch 5 wins between them, with LeeRoy winning 1 and Cale 4. Bobby Allison would eventually rack up 3 wins at Daytona, while his brother would play a pivotal role in Petty's 1979 win.
In 1974, the race was shortened to 450 miles as a result of the oil crisis (Petty winning that one as well), but it was back to the full 500 miles the following year.
In 1977, Janet Guthrie became the first woman to start the 500, going from 39th to 12th. She would finish 11th in 1980, her third and final run at the 500, while also becoming the first woman to qualify and race in the Indy 500 later that year, also racing in it 3 times, with a best result of 9th in 1978 (driving with a fractured wrist no less).
But for long-time fans of the 500, two years stand out as pivotal in the '70s: 1976 and 1979.
The 1976 race was an epic, featuring a lengthy duel between Richard Petty and David Pearson. On the final lap, Pearson made the pass on Petty and led down the backstretch, but Petty attempted an overtake into Turn 3 but failed to clear Pearson. The resulting contact sent both into the wall and then into the infield grass, both coming to rest just yards from the finish. Pearson managed to restart and cross the line for the win while Petty, with an assist from his quick-thinking pit crew pushed the car across the line to finish 2nd.
In 1979,the race would thrust the Daytona 500 and NASCAR into the national spotlight, and in many ways gave both the race and the sport the reputation that they carry to this day. CBS (one of the three major TV networks at the time) had just signed an agreement to broadcast NASCAR and the Daytona 500 was to be the first race carried live, lights to flag, on USA television. In addition, a major snowstorm had blanketed the Northeast, ensuring a large audience for this first of its kind broadcast.
A large storm had drenched the track the night before, and as Ken Squier and David Hobbs settled in the booth, the first 15 laps were run under the green and yellow flag conditions to help dry the track.
An early lap contretemps saw Donnie Allison take out both Cale Yarbrough and his brother Bobby. All managed to carry on, but they had lost laps to the leaders sorting the damage and it would take Donnie until Lap 178 to reclaim the lead, with Yarbrough again close behind him and chasing. On the final lap, Yarbrough attempted to slingshot as Allison came down to block him. Neither driver would give way and the inevitable contact sent Yarbrough's inside wheels onto the turf. He lost control of his car and came back onto the track, hitting Allison's car, the pair winding up in the outside wall of Turn 3 before sliding down the banking and into the infield as a surprised, and no doubt delighted, Richard Petty came through to notch his 6th win of the iconic race.
While Petty celebrated, Bobby Allison had pulled alongside the stranded drivers to offer his brother a ride back to the pits, and Yarbrough, who evidently felt that the early race contact had cost him the victory and was not happy with the outcome of his late move either, started jawing with Bobby and then proceeded to smack Allison in the face with his helmet. This brought Donnie into the melee. He grabbed Yarbrough and pulled him away from the car as Bobby exited the car and started swinging.
The whole thing was topped off by a marshal tackling Yarbrough and both Allisons to the ground, snippets of the confrontation broadcast live to a massive TV audience. The next day, the race was a topic of national conversation and, just as with the original race, it was the kind of controversy that guaranteed a large and ever-growing audience for the sport. Both drivers naturally blamed the other for the accident but both wound up being fined and placed on probation by NASCAR for the incident.
After that, the trajectory of NASCAR and the Daytona 500 in particular, as a national and eventually international event was set. Petty would go on to win his 7th and final 500 in 1981, the first year of Generation 3 cars, but his long reign as The King was entering its twilight as the pressure from below became ever greater and the years took their toll.
He would go on to claim his final win in 1984 at Daytona, not at the 500, but at the Firecracker 400, and he finished his racing career, which began in 1958, at the end of the 1992 season at the Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Dale Earnhardt to Modern Era

As Petty’s career waned to its eventual end, another driver started capturing the first glimpses of the spotlight, ironically in that very same infamous ‘79 Daytona 500 win for Petty.
He even led the race for a few laps before finishing 8th, which was a marvelous result for his first time at Daytona. It was to be just the opening salvo of a career that became one of the staples of USA racing, long since his tragic death. His name is both loved and hated within the NASCAR community, but there is no denying it accelerated the series’ rise in popularity. His skillful but aggressive driving style made him a force to be reckoned with on the track and earned him many enemies on and off it. And who might you ask that be? Dale “The Intimidator” Earnhardt.
Although he would match Petty in NASCAR championships, his record at Daytona was less than spectacular. Eventually, the 500 was considered a cursed race for Earnhardt, but while he was unable to dominate at Daytona, other names from his era had a better time there.
The 1980s saw the debut of the Generation 3 cars, which were the first time the NASCAR cars would no longer be “stock”. Finally, the sport had outgrew the possibility of buying the winning car from Sunday.
Ford started the aero wars when the nose on the Thunderbird did not match the one sold to customers. GM responded with a limited run “bubble back window” on their Pontiac Grand Prix and Chevy Monte Carlo, and the eventual rise of Buick’s Regal Grand National (whose homologation special is considered a bit of a collector's car with the unique edge of being a V6 turbo unlike its NASCAR counterpart).
The Generation 3 cars’ performance and wheelbase were set during this era, with the wheelbase of 110 inches holding up to this day. In the early 80s, the manufacturers were focusing on fuel efficiency and smaller cars were desirable.
Daytona during the 80s had a star-studded cast, many of them repeat winners. Petty won his last Daytona 500 in 1981, Cale Yarbourogh added two more wins to his Daytona tally, and Bill Elliot (aka Million Dollar Bill or Awesome Bill from Dawsonville) and Bobby Allison also collected 2 Daytona wins each.
You might be wondering what engineering was like during the 80s? Formula 1 was exiting its era of ground effect cars to welcome the turbo engines while NASCAR was seeing its own explosion of importance of aerodynamics. This led to the cars seeing speeds never before seen in NASCAR, with cars now going over 200 mph. After an accident on a different speedway led NASCAR’s insurers to tell the series to slow the cars down, the restrictor plate was introduced in 1988. This restrictor plate reduces the amount of air that can be allowed into the engines, reducing the power and, consequently, the car’s top speed. It was used until 2019, with a “tapered spacer” taking its place since (and doing the exact same thing).
By the 80s a new trend started: families racing on track. But, unlike in Formula 1, where we rarely see family members going head to head, NASCAR had no such limitations. In the first 500 with restrictor plates in place, the winner was the driver whose accident the prior year led to the implementation of the plates: Bobby Allison. And who finished in 2nd place, sharing the podium with Bobby? Davey Allison, his son. Sadly, both of Bobby’s race driving sons were killed in the early 90s. Davey died as a result of injuries sustained in a helicopter crash in July 1993, while Clifford was killed during practice for a race at Michigan International Speedway in August 1992. They were 32 and 27, respectively. The 1988 win is still the record for oldest driver to win the Daytona 500: Bobby was 50 years old.
But during the late 80s another war was mounting. Much like the Bridgestone vs Michelin tire wars of the early 2000s in Formula 1, a war between Goodyear and Hoosier was underway.
Initially, in 1988, it seemed to be a blip in the radar, but it quickly spiralled out of control as both tire manufacturers did their best to combat the tire failings that plagued that season. At the start of 1989, Goodyear brought a new tire that was supposed to take over the entire grid.
But it too failed, and it failed in a spectacular way, as the reigning champion Bill Elliot and Dale Earnhardt both suffered tire blowouts leading into the Daytona 500. That led drivers to stock up on Hoosier tires as insurance, as teams were not tied to a particular supplier. The eventual winner, Darrel Waltrip, won on Hoosiers, but that would be the last glory for the company. Goodyear refined their tire and that spelled the end of the war. It was a David versus Goliath fight, however, as Hoosiers was a 16-person outfit, while Goodyear had thousands.
Then the 90s arrived and, with that, another generation of NASCAR cars. Now, the “stock” cars were not even using the body panels of the cars they supposedly represented. They were stock cars only in name, as teams hit the wind tunnel to grab as much performance as possible since their engines were no longer a consistently reliable source of performance for the cars. The advances did not happen instantly, of course, but as teams slowly sought areas where they could bend and extend the lines, performance gains were found everywhere, including now running fiberglass noses, tails, and bumpers in a bid to save weight.
It was during this era of NASCAR that Earnhardt finally won at Daytona. It is crazy to think that a 7-time champion needed nearly 20 years to achieve a victory in one of the series’ most prestigious races, but that is what happened. In 1998, the curse was finally broken, and Dale finally stood at the top of the podium. It is hard to imagine a winner who was happier to finally conquer their white whale. That joy, sadly, would not last long.
As the 2000s started, Daytona would be where the last chapter in The Intimidator’s storied career would be written. While his son Dale Jr. fought for the win in the 2001 Daytona 500, Dale Sr. collided with Sterling Marlin and Ken Schrader in the final lap, the #3 car hitting the outside wall while Schrader impacted it on the side. The violence of the crash would cause a basilar skull fracture, and Earnhardt would be pronounced dead shortly thereafter. Many NASCAR figures compared his death to Ayrton Senna’s in 1994, with a few drivers commenting that they were young racing fans when Senna passed and comparing the impact of Earnhardt’s death to the Brazilian’s at Imola.
For many fans of Earnhardt, just as with Senna’s, his death meant that the sport would lose a legion of viewers, with some commenting that Dale Sr.’s passing would kill NASCAR.
The loss of a towering figure such as Earnhardt would obviously lead to changes and one of the most important ones was that the HANS device would now be mandatory. An era of NASCAR was over, but the sport would live on, just as Formula 1 did after that dreaded weekend in Imola.
The team that carries the Earnhardt name would finish 1-2 in the 2001 race and, following Dale Sr.’s passing, the Earnhardt team would continue to do well at Daytona, especially with the Generation 4 car.
Michael Waltrip would win at Daytona an additional time in 2003, followed by Dale Jr. winning an emotional victory in 2004. The following season, Jeff Gordon won his 3rd Daytona 500, while Jimmy Johnson won the next one in 2006.
For 2007, a new generation of NASCAR race car was unveiled. Unlike its predecessors, the so-called “Car of Tomorrow” took the sport into a whole new direction. The emphasis was on driver safety and as a result a common chassis and body was developed for the cars, leading it into more of a spec series than ever before. An even more exciting development was the arrival of Juan Pablo Montoya.
Montoya had been racing previously in IndyCar and decided to give NASCAR a shot. One might wish that his Daytona record was one of glory, but unfortunately it is perhaps one that might be considered embarrassing. He would race in the 500 seven times, with a best result of 6th in 2011 (with Earnhardt Racing).
The 2007 cars saw service until 2012, when they were replaced by the Generation 6 cars, which are in their last year of use in NASCAR. When the Generation 6 cars debuted in 2013, the series also introduced a special set of rules for the Daytona 500 and the other superspeedway tracks. With the start of stage racing in 2017, the sport definitely changed from what had been the standard for NASCAR and the 500, with some fans complaining that the races have been a bit too convoluted, leading to a downturn in viewership.
But when the “Great American Race” is on, you can count on the fans turning their TVs on on Sunday. This year will not be different.

Rules & FAQ

Just like every motorsport series, NASCAR has a mountain of regulations to govern every contest.
But in order to understand what you are watching, the most important thing to know is that NASCAR runs basically on 3 different types of track, Oval, Road and Superspeedway.
The Daytona 500 falls into that third category and what sets it apart is not just the ridiculous top speeds but the fact that the cars can essentially run flat out. Because of it, managing the draft becomes essential to doing well at the race. Anyone that ever watched the Tour de France or any other bike race has seen the riders in a single or double file line during a race and that is basically the idea for the superspeedways.
At Daytona, the cars will do the same thing, and falling off the leading pack can be the end of a race, as cars can sometimes go 3 to 5 seconds faster while drafting than by themselves. A single misstep could see you lose 30+ places, and it is often called a freight train when it happens.
Another frequent tactic with the draft is dropping back just a bit from the car ahead and accelerating into the draft, so you can exit a corner with a massive speed advantage, called a slingshot. Running side by side slows cars down as there is also a side draft, so cars from the same manufacturers will usually work together during the race.
Pitstops are crucial, just like in Formula 1, and drivers will always want to get them done during yellow flags if possible. A full stop for tires and fuel will take just 10-12 seconds, but even so teams will sometimes skip changing some tires, usually leaving the left tires in place to save time.
Despite that, under green flag running, there is an undercut potential, especially if new tires are taken and your competitors tires are old and worn. Often cars of the same manufacturer will pit together so they can work together on pit exit. One big difference to F1 is that, under yellow flags, the gaps are closed first before the pitlane is opened, with lapped cars usually being waved around before the track goes green.
These days, NASCAR races are run in 3 stages (at Daytona, they will be 65, 65 and 70 laps), with the top 10 drivers at the end of each stage getting points in addition to those awarded at the end of the race. The end of each stage features a yellow flag period where the field is reassembled and, in the absence of other carnage, all the drivers will likely want to pit. But large numbers of cars in the pits at the same time can also breed disaster and the pit window being around 40 laps should mean varied strategy, especially as dropping as little as two tenths of a second can cost you double-digit positions during a crowded pitstop.
Now we get to the fun stuff, qualifying. And by fun, I mean complicated.
The first session of qualifying is a single timed lap and the two fastest times of the session start in the first two positions for the race. The next day, all the odd numbered finishers compete in Duel 1, a 60 lap race that sets the order for the inside line at the start while Duel 2, featuring the even numbered finishers from the single lap session, sets the order for the outside line. Non-charter teams (meaning teams that are not guaranteed a spot in the race) also get two spots from single lap qualifying and two more in the Duels which will bring the field up to 40 starters.
Lastly, a quick word about the remarkably confusing number of series.
If it is a Cup race, that is like F1, while Xfinity is akin to F2, Camping World Truck to F3, and anything beyond that would be the equivalent of F4 and its regional variants. Drivers can (and will) compete in more than one series based on sponsorship and results.
If you are looking for someone to keep an eye on, Denny Hamlin might be worth watching as he will be attempting to become the only person to ever win three 500s back to back.

F1 Ties

While not many drivers have appeared on both F1 and NASCAR grids, many Formula 1 drivers have given it a go. And it seems that, as the years go on, more drivers express interest in NASCAR.
In the modern era Lewis Hamilton and Tony Stewart have traded cars, and Fernando Alonso has ventured the possibility of driving for a NASCAR team in the future. But that is only scratching the surface of the ties between the two racing series.
In the past, four F1 drivers took a chance in NASCAR.
Jim Clark, Mario Andretti, Jochen Rindt, and Innes Ireland all took part in NASCAR races, but only Andretti and Ireland raced at Daytona, with Andretti being the only Formula 1 driver to win the Daytona 500.
Jacques Villeneuve, Kimi Räikkönen, the aforementioned Juan Pablo Montoya, and Scott Speed all have tried their hand at NASCAR. Despite the skills of these drivers, two of which were champions in Formula 1, their results are not impressive. Juan Pablo Montoya, who has had the longest running career in NASCAR, only managed a best championship finish of 17th and a 6th at Daytona.
Finally, Haas owner Gene has a NASCAR team, currently jointly owning Stewart-Haas Racing with Tony Stewart. The team has won the championship twice (2011 with Stewart and 2014 with Kevin Harvick) and had Max Papis (7 F1 starts with Footwork in 1995) drive for one race in 2008. In 2019 co-owner Tony Stewart took Kevin Magnussen and Romain Grosjean for laps around CotA, which the former F1 Haas drivers seemed to enjoy quite a bit. For the 2021 season, Stewart-Haas Racing will race four Ford Mustang GTs, #4 for Kevin Harvick, #10 for Aric Almirola, #14 for Chase Briscoe, and #41 for Cole Custer.
Between drivers, there is a lot of respect between the series. Hamilton and Stewart’s car swap was the most recent one, but on the day Senna died, Dale Earnhardt used his winning press conference to offer condolences to Senna’s family and, during a yellow flag, the track observed one minute of silence in honor of Ayrton.
And, how can we not mention the reason for Daniel Ricciardo running with the number 3. That was Dale Sr.’s number and Ricciardo has shown not only a great love for the series but a lot of admiration for Dale Earnhardt's skills as a driver.
Finally, after this year NASCAR will change their cars quite dramatically. The 4-speed manual will be retired in favor of a 6-speed sequential and, although the engines will remain as they are, the Generation 7 cars have been designed with a hybrid system in mind (with much of the same howling seen in Formula 1 currently going on in NASCAR circles about noise, etc.) and it seems to be a given that they will eventually be hybrids. Will the hardware updates be enough to entice drivers from Formula 1 to try their hand in NASCAR one day? Only time will tell.

Conclusion

Tomorrow, a thundering herd of V8 monsters will be unleashed at Daytona.
If any of this sparked your curiosity, tune in to the 500 and experience the thrill of stock car racing.
Do you miss racing and need something to fill the void until Formula 1 starts? Do you crave intense racing, bumper to bumper action from start to finish? Do you want to witness cars in fierce on-track battles where any mistake is a catastrophe? Do you perhaps wish for a chance to sit down and see a driver win who did not start on the front row to win the race?
Well, this is your chance. And this is not just some random race. This is a storied event, with roaring engines, squealing tires, and drivers using all their ability to coax unwilling machines to do their bidding, all for one shared dream: to stand on the top step of the podium and rain champagne down on their team.
Join us for the live race discussion at NASCAR and let us see what this 500 brings.
We would like to thank Daniel Gilligan for our intro/outro and Dan Dectis for the theme song.
Daniel (u/DAGilligan) is an actor based in London and you can reach him via PM or through the Formula1 moderation team. He is also the lead commentator for frseries, the Formula1 and F1Game official F1 2020 racing experience. You can watch live races (and previous race replays) on the FRS Twitch channel.
Dan (u/mulsanne) is a multi-instrument artist based in San Francisco and his latest album, Covert Overtures, is available through Bandcamp.
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you win you lose some quotes video

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