After getting a bunch of heat from fans of Joey Gallo for my opinion on Batting average, i decided to reevaluate my opinion of the stat. What i found was rather astonishing, Gallo's OPS right now is 1.036, i didnt realize how impressive that is until this article i read from redlegnation titled "please stop using batting average" explained how flawed of a stat average is, OPS seems like a much better statistic, the charts used showed that an OPS of .1000 is the equivalent of a .350 batting average, which makes me feel a lot better about that stat. I realize i have been ignorant in my opinion on batting average and decided to let everyone know i have officially educated myself on the issue. Also, Lets Go Rangers!
Can someone explain why my giambi does so much better in ranked than turner? His AB/HR is about 17 vs 19 for turner, and both his obp and batting average are about 40 points higher...I would at the very least expect turner to have better power numbers but he doesnt
[Trezza] The Orioles just debuted a new video scoreboard segment called "Stats with Sig," where assistant GM Sig Mejdal explains to fans why OPS is good and batting average is bad. This is next level stuff.
With the death of Muhammed Ali, the discussion for who was the greatest sportsman of all time came up and of course many people mentioned Sir Donald Bradman with the incredible test average of 99.94. Then someone mentioned the "walking statistical anomaly" that is Adam Voges and the fact that his batting average is 95.50. Now I know he's only did 21 innings but something must have happened for his batting average to be that high.
Book 1 of The HEL Jumper Year 2 of The HEL Jumper Year 3 of The HEL Jumper ----- Previous | First | Patreon Thanks to Big_Papa_Dakky, Darth_Android, bloblob, AMERICUH, Ironwing, Krystalin, Mamish, Vikairious, Sam_Berry, KillTech, LilLaussa, Daddy_Talon, Gruecifer, Gaelan_Darkwater, Konrahd_Verdammt, red-shirt, DaPorkchop, Benjamin Durbin, Siddabear, and everyone supporting me on Patreon. ----- “You alright? Physically, I mean,” Russell asked as he and Thantis returned to the village alone on the shuttle that had brought them to the Forge. “The old ticker’s not going to give out or anything?” Thantis blinked a couple times as he extracted himself from the depths of whatever train of thought had occupied him for some time. Needless to say, the trip back had not featured lighthearted education regarding the nature of Mara’s core. “It was certainly a stressful situation, wasn’t it? I thank you for doing all of the heavy lifting, Winters.” He left out the fact that they both knew he’d have been left behind otherwise. “Don’t mention it. That’s literally the sort of thing I trained to do and you’re lighter than a fellow soldier. Would have been really nice to stick around and take a dip in the hot springs, but something tells me that goes against the new ‘don’t interfere with the planet’ policy.” ‘Not that you didn’t enjoy them to your fullest before the rest of the crew got here,’ Io reminded him with a pointed gaze. Russell cleared his throat and let that particular memory lay dormant. “A day of rest will be more than enough. But you’re sure everything’s alright on the inside, Thantis?” “You are kind to ask, Winters. Thankfully, my difficulties at the moment remain in the realm of the mental and spiritual. Much happened that I am having difficulty making sense of.” “You’re not the only one,” Russell assured him as the shuttle shuddered almost imperceptibly, a friendly reminder that they were traveling through air instead of gliding through space. “At least we didn’t break the place.” ‘On the outside, you mean,’ Io clarified in an agitated tone. She was equally as upset about the day’s events as Thantis. ‘We have no idea if anything is left standing on the inside, not to mention that the robot will likely never re-activate even if the facility didn’t self-destruct or otherwise dangerously terminate its own functions. This is the worst day for science since the Lancer was lost. And that was a very bad day for science!’ “You mean other than the fact that we can get home and tell the rest of humanity what happened here, along with everything else we’ve discovered?” Russell observed sharply. “Let a team of archaeologists deal with it. Later.” Io, who was using the B-MASS in order to be present for both Winters and Thantis, looked to the side and let out a long breath, acknowledging that the current moment might not have been the best time. ‘Yes, later is a good idea, sir. I think we should all give thanks that we will not be giving Veera or Gentia any reason to weep this evening.’ Russell and Thantis shared a look, agreeing that even if Io’s words were true, that wouldn’t be the end of it. The Jumper cleared his throat. “Yeah, no tears. But that doesn’t mean she won’t be mad as hell.” “You are forgetting a healthy helping of ‘I told you so’,” Thantis added, finally allowing a real smile to shine through the clouds of his tested faith. “A word of advice, Winters?” “Sure, what’s up?” “Cave early and cave often,” the Cauthan said with a wink, giving Russell a hearty chuckle as Io nodded approvingly. “Among other things, I find that’s been a constructive cornerstone of my long life with Gentia.” ‘While I’m very much in agreement regarding the capitulation to the needs and wants of the important women in one’s life,’ Io began, batting her eyelashes at Russell as though he needed some sort of reminder that she was such a woman. ‘Gentia and Veera may need to wait. I just received word from the Admiral, sir. He’s on his way to the village and intends to meet us there.’ “For what purpose?” Winters asked curiously. Io made a little show of opening a letter and reading the message within. ‘In his words? Examining primary sources.’ ----- True to his word, Natori was there to greet them when Russell and Thantis’ shuttle set down just outside the western gates. Thanks to his arrival there was already plenty of commotion, adding to the hectic Cauthan harvest season as males and females both hustled to and fro in the fields, plucking ripened produce just before the point of spoilage. The tall, ebony skinned human offered his hand to Thantis as the shuttle’s doors opened upward with an audible hiss. “I am glad to see you are well, my friend. Would you believe that our esteemed colleague Qul’Roth sends his regards and wishes you ‘good health in the name of the Order’?” ‘I wouldn’t,’ Io replied immediately, nevertheless allowing Thantis to answer on his own. “That is very kind of him. If you would convey my thanks when you return?” “Happily, Thantis. It sounds to me as though the two of you had quite the little adventure. Lieutenant,” the Admiral addressed Russell and the two men exchanged salutes. “That’s certainly one way of putting it, sir. What can we do for you?” he asked, waving to a villager who called out in greeting as he passed, a wooden tool for unearthing dato in his paws. “I believe we speak to Antoth first. I admit that I may have spooked him a little by returning to the village so soon after my last departure. All that I could tell him was that something unexpected happened at the Forge, but that the two of you were unharmed. While I wait on the lead researchers and Lance Corporal Mendes to pen their official reports, I figured it might be wise to hear of events the old fashioned way. Shall we?” he suggested, sweeping an arm behind him towards the village. A particular striped Cauthan was, of course, awaiting them there. She was not pleased. “Ah, perhaps an explanation for your wife is in order too?” Natori suggested, understanding that his presence was likely a significant contributor to Veera’s serious demeanor. “If it’s the same to you Admiral, I think it’s best I handle this alone,” Russell replied, leaving Thantis’ side and walking up to Veera. She tilted her head slightly to maintain eye contact, her expression one of expectation as she waited for him to begin. “Listen Veera, I know it looks bad but-” “Did you know that Fenrir’s figured out where all of the meat is stored?” she demanded suddenly, causing Russell to stick his neck out and cock his head in confusion. “I’m sorry, he what?” “He found me on patrol this afternoon with a chesko sausage hanging from his mouth and a very pleased expression on his face,” Veera explained, a hand on her hip. “I had to go to the temple of Valta and compensate them!” “Oh boy. I’m sure Ratha was thrilled,” Russell responded, a nervous pit in his stomach as he considered how much mayhem Fenrir could get up to. “She’s going to kill him if this continues!” Veera insisted. “Just please tell me you didn’t teach him to do this!” “Why would I teach Fenrir to steal meat from the one place in town that would get him riddled with arrows?!” Russell demanded, feeling he had some small, slight justification for taking offense. “Because sometimes you do silly things!” Veera replied as though it were obvious before visibly deflating. “We have to do something, Russell.” “We will, sweetie. We’ll give him a bit more food at meals and maybe see about keeping some sort of muzzle on him when he’s around town. I can take him hunting again soon too,” the human suggested, silently forgiving his wife her mild hysteria. Ratha’s opinions regarding Veera and hyrven were both well known. His proposal mollified her, and she embraced him to welcome him home. “I knew everything was alright the moment you and Thantis showed up unharmed. I suppose the Admiral being here means you will have some meeting with Antoth, but I’m glad you’re alright,” she told him. He hummed in her ear and left a quick kiss on her cheek. “Yeah, things didn’t go as planned but everyone made it out safely. If it’s all the same to you, I think when this is done I’d much rather focus on making sure our pet doesn’t become a pelt,” he replied. “As long as you admit that I told you so,” Veera said. “That place was obviously nothing but trouble from the very beginning.” ‘Are we going to continue overlooking the part where we can safely travel back to Earth now?’ Io demanded, having observed the married ‘spat’ for long enough. Veera’s eyes widened in surprise. “We can… you did it?” she gasped. “I sure as hell didn’t,” Russell clarified quickly. “But something happened that deactivated whatever process was going on in there. Io’s right. The warp point is clear and at some point soon I have to imagine Natori is going to take his ship home.” Veera found herself caught flat footed by the news, looking down at the earth beneath her feet as a sudden trepidation struck her. They had talked about Russell’s eventual departure many a time over the seasons she’d known him, but it was always a hypothetical, an occasion far down the line. That line seemed soon to end. “So I… have to leave?” she questioned. “Veera, I need to go meet with Antoth and the Admiral. When I’m done we’ll sit down and have a long talk about this, ok? If things have changed and you really want to stay, there may be a way to do that,” he explained. “But your family! Your parents!” Veera exclaimed before cutting herself off, noticing Thantis and Natori waiting at a polite distance for them. “You’re right. Please don’t take long.” “We won’t. Where’s the little troublemaker now?” Russell wondered. “I sent him off into the forest after his little snatch and grab. So he’ll probably be back for dinner.” “Count on that hyrven to never miss a meal. Alright love, I’m glad you and he are ok. See you soon?” Veera took his hands in hers and nodded. “Offer Antoth your guidance, Russell. You are the only human he can trust.” Though Russell’s first inclination was to protest, he couldn’t help but acknowledge the fact that even someone as forward and open as Natori could possess his own interests and agenda. He hummed low in his chest and agreed with a nod of his head. “I will, Veera.” ----- “Walk me through it one more time?” Antoth requested, running a hand through the feathers atop his head as he, Thantis, Russell, and Natori were seated within the temple of Kel. Xan was there too, finding himself in the position of scribe as Thantis was an involved party in the Forge incident. “As I said, Antoth, the Cauthan made from metal visited us while we were exploring the main chamber,” Thantis recounted. “It was clearly female, given the plumage, but how such a thing could possibly exist is beyond me. I am unsure whether it was a servant of Kel, Tyrdus, or neither. While there were many of us there, it chose to approach me specifically and attempted to communicate. I, regretfully, did not understand anything it said to me, either with its voice or its feathers.” “Yes, I got that part,” the chieftain clarified in a patient tone. “It is what comes afterward that puzzles me.” “You’re not the only one,” Russell agreed before allowing Thantis to continue the tale from his perspective. “I attempted to speak to the metal being, requesting information about its nature, which of the gods it served. I believe I mentioned Kel and Meylith specifically, Antoth. When it replied to me it was no clearer than when it first spoke, but I do believe it was a reply instead of some unrelated statement.” “Because it repeated the word Kel to you,” Antoth finished. “Precisely. That is when a great many things began happening all at once. Spirit Io tells me that some sort of invisible disturbance began within the Forge, something powerful. The entire place began to shake violently, and the great weapon that the humans believe was causing the corruption plummeted into the abyss below. It was then that the metallic being collapsed. I attempted to revive it, or at least ascertain what had happened but the humans deemed the situation too dangerous at that point. Winters carried me from the facility as I was unable to move fast enough.” Antoth glanced over at the Jumper. “I find myself in the position of thanking you yet again, Winters. However, given that Thantis would have never been in danger in the first place if not for your discovery, I will not go so far as to say either of us are in your debt.” “That’s the least of my worries, Antoth, but thank you,” he replied as Natori spoke up. “Antoth, I believe that certain subjects we have discussed in the past must now be brought to the fore again. While departure is not imminent, as soon as my crew determines we can safely leave your planet we will begin preparing a timetable to do so. Assuming your invitation to my crew regarding your harvest festival still stands, I think it would be a crime to pass up such an opportunity for cultural exchange. Once it is concluded, I cannot envision a scenario where we remain much longer.” “I understand,” Antoth said, adjusting his posture as he stretched and stood sternly near one of Thantis’ many shelves full of dried herbs and scrolls. “My invitation to your people remains, however I reserve the right to revoke it at any time if I feel there is a need. I think we should table that discussion for another time. Right now I need to ruminate on the situation at hand. Kel refused to open his gate to your people, even Winters, but he did so for his servant among our own. This is… a curious omen.” Russell shook his head in discomfort as Io began to practically vibrate with excitement, causing a bit of feedback in his earpiece. Having dealt with her, he addressed the two leaders. “Antoth, I’m happy to stay if you wish but I should get home if not. It sounds like Fenrir was up to no good today.” “I don’t know about it and assuming the situation is under control I’ll be happy not to know about it,” Antoth replied, making it clear in his tone that he expected Winters to exert said control over the situation. “If Thantis and I need to speak with you we will find you.” “Understood. Admiral Kaczynski, sir?” The Admiral instead looked at Antoth. “Is there anything else you wished to discuss so long as I am here?” “The food situation,” Antoth replied immediately, glancing at Xan. Natori nodded. “I must admit that over the short period of time since we last spoke I have not received any updates myself. However I would be happy to escort Xan or someone else from your village up to the Event Horizon to inspect the current crop personally.” “Then you should go, Xan. If we will not receive armor or weapons we should at least ensure this food is suitable when grown far from Mara’s soil. Will there be any issues?” he finished on a considerate note. “No Antoth, I’d be happy to. I should grab a couple of things and let my family know where I’ll be though,” the young scholar explained. “Very well, you are dismissed.” “My shuttle will be waiting at the western gate,” Natori advised the young Cauthan. “First Lieutenant, I do not wish to keep you too long but I would appreciate it if you and Io would accompany me that far.” “Yes sir,” Russell replied, seeing no reason to protest. “Selah, Thantis. Today was quite the adventure.” “I shall remember it for the rest of my life,” Thantis agreed, his customary demeanor returning as a ‘smile of knowledge’ spread across his muzzle. “And while that may not be a particularly strong statement, I am sure that you will as well. Go in peace, everyone. Selah. Shall we summon the others, Antoth?” “Not yet. Let us speak privately,” the burly Cauthan requested, indicating that he no longer needed the other three individuals in the temple. Xan packed up the scroll he’d been scribbling on and departed for his family’s home to the north while Russell and the Admiral headed west. “Is your wife the only Cauthan with an understanding of English?” Natori began. “So far as I know, sir,” Russell replied in a guarded tone. “Excellent, then we can dispense with some of the secrecy. What is your opinion on taking this village back to Earth with us?” he wondered. Io was visibly restraining herself from answering for the both of them, but her opinions on the matter were obvious. Russell was more defferential. “I think that’s a little bit beyond my pay grade, sir. On that subject, however, I need to know if there will be any problems in taking my wife aboard when we leave.” “Yes well, if we take them all along with us I see no reason she couldn’t come too!” Natori replied in an almost obnoxiously upbeat tone. “The formalities and paperwork will be handled either way in her case, Lieutenant, I assure you. But I do not wish to discuss formalities and rules today. I can do that with men like your father once we return home, and I get the sneaking suspicion there will be quite a few of those conversations. Your gut feelings on the situation will suffice.” “I’d be worried about them if we left them here and I’d be worried if we took them along, assuming such a thing is even possible and they agree to it” Russell replied. “For every Cauthan like Gentia or Thantis who might jump at the idea, there will be Cauthan like Ratha who will surely object.” “Undoubtedly,” Natori agreed. “But the conditions are such that they will be forced to answer that question, assuming my staff comes back to me and deems such a mission possible. From a human perspective, it is a clever workaround of many of the objections from our Ghaelen guest, objections that will be more difficult to ignore once he is returned to his people.” ‘Since simply removing the village from existence was his enlightened idea in the first place,’ Io quipped, using vicious air quotes to append the word ‘enlightened’. Natori chuckled heartily, waving cordially to a couple of farmers who looked their way at the noise. “In defense of Emissary Qul’Roth, I am not sure I want to know what happens to Ghaelen who defy the Order,” Natori suggested. “But per your evaluation, Io, I see no reason not to make it our enlightened decision instead.” “A decision to do what, exactly? Take them home and just turn them loose in a random city? Keep them in an HEL compound for years?” Russell demanded. Kaczynski stroked his chin. “I need a shave I believe. And count on the Jumper to immediately identify all the ways in which a situation could go wrong. Before you object, I approve of the approach. Though if you’ve already moved on to that point I presume you would generally be in favor of the translocation?” Russell organized his thoughts as the two men passed through the central square of the town, considering what it might look like in various settings he’d visited back home. “At least if they came with us and needed help I’d be able to do something.” Natori looked at Winters out of the corner of his eye. In truth, the Jumper was not used to speaking with people taller than him. An uncomfortable reminder of days gone by being scolded by his father gave way to a desire to see the man again. “May I ask what you were planning to do upon returning to Earth, Lieutenant? If you remain at your current post I’m not sure you would be any more able to aid these Cauthan than if we left them here.” That feeling of familial absence returned as Winters shook his head. “I didn’t give it much thought when I was aboard the Lancer, sir. Once I was here, worrying about it seemed pointless. I guess now’s the time to think about it again, but life’s already moved past that. Not sure I’ll leave the HEL, but when we get I’m going to turn in my wings, so to speak. The Jumper corps don’t need fathers. Doesn’t mean I’m not proud to have served as one of humanity’s most heavily armed bachelors.” Natori laughed earnestly at the description. “Children really do change everything, don’t they?” “You would know far better than I, sir. I’m just making assumptions. I want Veera to come with me, and that if she does I need to come home each night for several reasons. I normally wouldn’t talk to someone like you about these things, but I’m sure you’ll be in charge of accepting or denying that request when the time comes,” he added, trying to keep his tone from being standoffish. Natori seemed to find the comment entertaining, so he figured he’d succeeded. “Yes I suppose it was a deviation into rather private affairs. You have my apologies, Lieutenant. You and your sister are so different, but I can see your father in the both of you. I cannot make any guarantees, but I will do what I can if you’ve decided that your future lies outside of the Jumper corps. If things play out the way I expect them to, you and I and Io may have a mutual interest in such an arrangement, lest you think I’m somehow trying to play father.” “Thanks for the assurances, sir,” Russell replied shortly, only broadening Natori’s smile. “Youth is wonderful, is it not? In any case, you have something like six months to consider these questions, plus however long it takes us to get our affairs in order and depart this planet. With the threat from the alien installation apparently gone, my curiosity as to its nature has only increased.” Natori paused for a moment before snapping his fingers as he remembered something. “I need an after action report from you within the next twenty four hours, Lieutenant. I am aware that you have duties that go a bit beyond those of the average Event Horizon crew member, but given the magnitude of the event you just bore witness to, I need to review evidence from every angle, every perspective. There is no telling what the twenty or so of you might have seen or not seen.” ‘Done,’ Io replied, making a show of procuring the necessary video and audio files along with a written report that literally materialized atop her open palm. ‘Anything else?’ “You’ll let me review it first before it’s sent to the Admiral,” Russell insisted in no uncertain terms. “And later, I want you to make sure Xan is alright when he’s aboard the Event Horizon. Veera and I need to talk things over.” ‘Yes I suppose you do,’ Io agreed, filing away the materials she’d produced for his review. She waved politely at Natori. ‘Admiral, I will speak with you again some other time.’ “A pleasure as always,” he replied before her projection winked away. “Thank you for your time, Lieutenant. I will be fine waiting for the young apprentice before heading back. In the coming days and weeks I hope you will keep in mind that I value your opinion as an expert on the Cauthan, even if I make decisions that conflict with your sensibilities.” Russell took a moment to think through his reply, knowing well enough that the Admiral was not trying to patronize him. Natori took that time to look up at the gatehouse, nodding appreciatively at the construct of wood and packed dirt. “As long as you aren’t making decisions to appease the Ghaelen, sir, I can’t see myself raising any objections.” Kaczynski hummed shortly in reply. “Fair enough. You’re dismissed, Lieutenant.” Winters saluted silently and turned to head off along the road to the north, wondering how many more times he would walk along the rows of crowded homes, blockhouses, and rough drainage trenches. ---- The evening’s dinner preparation was a mostly silent affair. The crackling of firewood and the sound of a knife against wood, vegetables, and meat were comforting as he reviewed the full contents of Io’s report on the Forge incident. Every so often he made annotations, correcting Io’s propensity for flourish and embellishment. It had been a long time since he’d had to deliver such a report, and Io obviously found military language to be boring and trite. Between the two of them they soon had an acceptable product to send up to Natori’s bridge, along with the footage from his helmet cams. Task completed, Winters was free to address the question that had been hanging over both him and Veera for the entire afternoon. She was clearly as eager, or perhaps as nervous, as he, and he found her scrutinizing him from over the cooking pot. “Hey there, I’m all finished,” he began, standing and moving to her side. “Do you need any help?” “No, all of the heavy lifting is done. Just need to let it simmer for a while,” she told him, knocking a wooden spoon on the rim of the pot before taking a seat on one of their chairs. He joined her. “Your people will leave soon, and you’ll have to go with them.” “Yeah, they will,” Russell agreed, taking her hand in his and giving thanks that they wouldn’t be beating around the bush. “I do want to go back, Veera. I haven’t seen my parents or my two other siblings for…” Veera watched as her mate fell silent, his face looking far older than his actual age of twenty five as he counted the months. “It’s been too long, hasn’t it?” she asked compassionately. “The Admiral managed to get them here in about three months, but I don’t think he would push things that hard on the return trip. All told, even if we left tomorrow and didn’t make any detours, it would probably be more than two years total by the time I get home. And for at least half of that time they’ll have lived without knowing whether I’m alive or dead.” “It was clearly very hard for Alice,” Veera agreed, recalling the tearful scene from the bridge of the Event Horizon. “And she got to see you long before they will. You know I’ll still go with you, my love.” “I know,” he affirmed, looking at the flames as they licked at the blackened exterior of the pot that had served them well for many months. “But I know things have changed here too. I know there’s a lot you would leave behind now so… I think we should talk.” “About what, Russell?” she inquired. “I’m happy to talk about anything with you. We even vowed to do so in sight of the Mother, but it sounds like our path is already set.” “Maybe, but when we get to Earth things need to change,” he explained. “I can’t… I won’t get sent off on another mission like this. Even if you weren’t pregnant there would be a question, you know? But now there’s no way I want you following me around on military ships, and no way I’m going to leave you after you give birth. So… I’m going to have to figure something else out. Even cabins in the mountains don’t build themselves, and the life of a recluse isn’t the sort of thing I’d want for our kids.” To Russell’s surprise, Veera purred and nuzzled his cheek. She teased him gently. “Look at you trying to plan out our entire lives. I would never say no to you being in less danger.” Russell placed an arm around her shoulder and rested his head against hers. “Is there a ‘but’ in there somewhere?” “I was trying to be accommodating,” Veera pointed out. “But I would feel awful if you gave up something important on account of my pregnancy. It’s not like we planned for this.” “No, we didn’t,” he agreed seriously, sitting up in his seat and rubbing the back of his neck. “But that doesn’t change the fact. Besides, there aren’t many people who remain soldiers forever. Even people like my father eventually take non-combat roles and desk jobs. It might not go exactly the way we expect, but I’m sure I can work something out within the HEL if the civilian life just isn’t for me.” “Then it sounds like we don’t have much to worry about in terms of our family,” Veera summarized in a relieved tone before casting a glance at their entryway. “I will miss them, though.” Russell exhaled and looked over at Io, taking up her usual perch at the foot of their bed. He raised his brows at her and she shrugged in return. “I might as well ask your opinion on it then,” he said. “On what?” “This is something Io and I have been thinking about for a while but never with any seriousness. Apparently Alice started thinking the same way and made a proposal to both Natori and Antoth the last time the two of them met.” “Is that where you were called to?” Veera wondered quietly, taking a spoonful of stew and blowing on it until it was cool enough to taste. Satisfied with the blend of flavors, she grabbed two wooden bowls and began serving them both. “What is it that Alice was contemplating?” “From the sound of it, taking you and every single Cauthan in this village back home with us to Earth isn’t a flight of fancy,” Russell explained. Veera paused with a ladle full of stew halfway between the kettle and her bowl. “I- what? Is such a thing even possible?” she demanded aghast. Russell nodded, propping up one ankle on the opposite knee. “Way I understand it, the Event Horizon is running with a skeleton crew, at least so far as non-military personnel are concerned. When they learned they were coming after me, that my ship had been lost, a lot of people who could chose to stay behind. There’s plenty of space so long as your people can handle space travel. Obviously we’ve already experimented with that a bit.” “But why would they take us in the first place?” Veera asked suspiciously. “Here, eat while it’s hot.” “Smells wonderful, thank you,” Russell replied, making sure to take a large bite and savor it for her edification before going on to explain some of the reasons humanity might see a vested interest in taking her village along. “From what I can tell it would actually resolve a sticking point with the Ghaelen regarding human influence on the village. The other reason, honestly, is that we want to.” “And when we can no longer feed or clothe ourselves because we have left Mara we will be at your mercy,” Veera pointed out suspiciously. Io felt the need to step in at that point. ‘That is true, Veera. However what humanity can offer you in exchange would far exceed what you would lose. Imagine a world where one Cauthan, in someone like Anita’s position, could grow enough food to feed the whole village!’ “That sounds like a good excuse to sit around and grow lazy and fat, just like Vash,” Veera spat. Io recoiled indignantly as Russell waved his spoon her way. “She’s got a point there, you know. Hey boy, get over here and sit! I heard you were bad today!” Russell commanded, distracted as none other than Fenrir chose that moment to arrive home, having no doubt followed the smells of cooking fires throughout the village. He ruffled the hyrven’s fur roughly before providing him with a plate of pre-cut chesko meat. It was a bit bourgeois to cut their pet’s steak, he knew, but both he and Veera considered bite sized pieces preferable to Fenrir flinging his dinner about the house like a barbarian intent on painting the walls red. ‘Now that the beastie has his dinner and I can defend myself, I can tell you that many humans choose to work jobs like those found at the temples of Tyrdus or the Twins, making things instead of growing things. That might not be a difficult transition. Even more choose to live like Thantis or Alice, devoting their lives to knowledge and its pursuit. And yes, per your conversation with Russell all the way back when you first met, there are some who engage in creating pornographic material and every other profession in between. Based on the amount of garbage I’ve scrubbed from the Event Horizon’s intranet there will be a market for Cauthan smut when we return to Earth one way or another, but I’d rather space my main processors than ruminate on that for too long. You are right, Veera. Being lazy, indolent, and fat is a temptation when you live in a land of plenty, but I think it is better than starvation, death by raider, succumbing to treatable illnesses, or freezing to death.’ “Not to mention there are plenty of human communities who prefer to keep to what they consider to be the ‘old ways’,” Russell added. “I’m not saying anyone’s given the logistics serious thought, but the idea is out there now and it’s not just me and Io who would want to see you all paid back for letting me live here and keeping me alive.” “That doesn’t change the fact that we would be giving up our freedom and putting our lives in your hands, Russell,” Veera pointed out. “I choose to do so on account of our bonds of marriage and because I consider you to be a male who does not think in such terms. That doesn’t mean that this village will be treated the same way.” Russell was unable to brush her concerns away, knowing that he was far from the most senior HEL individual in the system anymore. He didn't foresee any issues with the Admiral honoring the union he shared with Veera, but he hadn't exactly married the rest of the village. "I know, but it's not like Io or I would abandon them. I'm not worth much, honestly, but you've seen what Io can do when she doesn't get what she wants." 'I resent that,' she told him. 'You act as though I saw the Event Horizon and thought give me the shiny ship.' Russell and Veera looked at Io quietly, chewing over tenderized pieces of chesko. She eventually backtracked. ‘Well don’t blame me for having the ability to do both at once! Besides, it’s not even that shiny.’ Veera laughed pleasantly as she reached over to scratch Fenrir between the ears. Between the slowly waning cooking fire and his dinner the hyrven was already headed for dreamland. “I appreciate the sentiment, Io. I know that you and Russell would not abandon us, but that will not make it any easier, especially for people like Ratha and Antoth.” “That’s a bit of an understatement. I wouldn’t be surprised if it proved necessary to drag Ratha kicking and screaming into a shuttle,” Winters added, finding the image amusing. “Ah well, like I said it’s really not a decision that any of us get to make. I just wanted your perspective. I guess it’s probably a scary concept more than anything.” “Yes, it is,” Veera agreed quietly. “And unlike me, they do not have someone like you to lean on.” “Fair enough. Hopefully we can get a few set up like Xan, familiarize themselves with the ship at least. Sounds like Natori could use help and you all have five fingers, an opposable thumb, and are of approximately human height,” Winters reasoned. “Speaking of which, why don’t you head on up, Io. He should be aboard already. I think we’re just going to clean up dinner here.” Veera waved her feathers in understanding as Io nodded and killed her projection. ‘I suppose I could check back in on my various VI monitoring subroutines as well. As you say sir. I will return later tonight.’ ----- “By Kel this place is big,” Xan complained, walking through corridor after corridor aboard the Event Horizon. He’d returned to his normal weight so he figured he had to be somewhere close to his destination, but with every turn he only seemed to find yet another sign featuring vibrant green and yellow symbols showing him the way to the hydroponics bays. The Cauthan let out an audible groan of relief when he stepped into a larger hallway and found a sizable green arrow pointing at a set of bulkheads several times his size. He could not yet read the human runes painted within it, but he recognized the location well enough. Clearing his throat and composing himself he walked up to the doors and made to knock, but found his plans foiled as they simply opened on their own and a synthesized, female voice faintly reminiscent of Io’s own welcomed him to the hydroponics bay. “Hey, Anita?” he called out, facile enough with English to use at least one word. He smiled as she poked her head around the corner of the door to her office, her long ponytail hanging most of the way to the floor from her seated position. She was confused to see him, which confused him in turn. “X-Xan?” she stuttered. “What are you um, doing here?” The Cauthan leaned heavily on his cane, putting two and two together before letting out a long sigh of realization and clicking a talon on the floor. “You know, if you’d prefer to work for someone who doesn’t enjoy surprises, Antoth would be happy to have you if you can grow food for us. He’s a similar color too, so that wouldn’t be much of a change, right? He wanted me to check in and see how things are going up here. Guess Natori didn’t give you a warning?” “No, he didn’t,” Anita confirmed quietly, unsure whether to find humor in the idea of working for Antoth or trying to explain to Xan that it was the height of rudeness to remark on someone’s skin color in such a way. In the end she sat in silent embarrassment as her stomach betrayed her and growled audibly. Even with his mangled left ear Xan was able to pick up on it just fine. “I have a place to sleep up here so maybe let’s get food first? Not like I’m in a rush or anything. Well, I actually can’t rush much of anywhere these days,” he quipped, pointing to his gimped leg. “I don’t really know my way around so… or was I interrupting something?” Anita couldn’t bring herself to say no, so instead she zipped up her jumpsuit, grabbed her tablet, and ensured the automated subroutines were all green before tucking her chair neatly away at her desk. “So, ah, how have you been, Xan?” she asked politely, leading the way from her usual haunt to the hallways that would take them to the civilian canteen. The Cauthan kept a sure pace, his cane accentuating his progress. He chuckled to himself as he summed up the events of the prior cycle in one word. “Busy.” ----- Previous | First | Patreon ----- Own The HEL Jumper: Survive in the format of your choice: Hardcover, Softcover, and epub from Lulu | Amazon Kindle
Can someone explain to me why batting average is overrated? When we're in the playoffs with runners on second and third, wouldn't you want a player with a high batting average as opposed to a player who has a high chance of getting a walk?
What Was The Best Season Ever by a Reliever? - an Analysis
Relievers. Who are they? What do they do? Until one bright spring day in 1993, nobody knew the answers to these simple questions. Then, MLB scientists made a breakthrough in their labs in the bowels of the Astrodome, and Mariano Rivera sprung forth from his mother’s womb fully formed and sawed off Jason Giambi. But the question they couldn’t answer is ‘what is the best season ever by a reliever?’. At the time, the technology was simply not expansive enough to begin delving into this question. Now, thanks to huge leaps in science, we can finally answer something that has plagued the minds of man since the dawn of humanity. Now, clearly, the answer is Francisco Rodriguez, since he’s the single season save leader and that’s the best stat to measure relievers by. But let’s ignore that. You can just look up which reliever has the most WAR in a single season, which is 1975 Goose Gossage by bWAR (8.2!?!?!) or 1977 Bruce Sutter by fWAR (5.2). The reason for this difference is because BaseballReference uses runs allowed to calculate bWAR, and FanGraphs uses FIP to calculate fWAR. Since relievers pitch such small sample sizes, there’s often a large gap between their FIP and their runs allowed (RA). Since we’re looking at the best season, and not the best player, I’m going to use bWAR (and thus RA) for this exercise. (If you don’t know what FIP is, it stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, which looks at only the outcomes of at-bats which are solely between the pitcher and the batter - home runs, walks, and strikeouts. These stats are thrown together and then given a normalizing factor so that the average league FIP matches the average league ERA. FIP is a wonderful predictive tool, to the point where it is more predictive of a pitcher’s ERA next year than a pitcher’s ERA is. I’d rather not use it here because it doesn’t look at the actual results - if I was trying to find the best reliever, and not the best season, then I’d use FIP.) Using a simple value added stat is incredibly biased towards 1970’s middle relievers who would throw 100+ innings in a year, though. WAR is a counting stat, so the more they pitch, the more they rack up. What about bWAIP? One BBRef search later, and I have this table.
To begin with, bWAR uses RA for its calculations, which uses both earned and unearned runs. Dennys Reyes, Bill Henry, Blake Treinen, Rich Gossage, Fernando Rodney, Dennis Eckersley, and Joey Devine all had more RA/IP in their respective seasons. (The difference between their ERA and their bWAIP isn’t solely explained by this, but it’s good enough for now. We’ll get to that in a moment). This leaves 1986 Rob Murphy and 2016 Zach Britton. Why don’t they stack up? The answer is a little thing I’d like to call ‘run environment’, which is encapsulated by BaseballReference’s stat RA9Avg. It takes what an average pitcher’s run allowed/9 innings (RA/9) was that year, and then adjusts it for park factors, for the defense, and for who that specific pitcher faced. If a pitcher had a relatively high run environment, it means he would be pitching in batter’s parks, faced tough opponents, had a bad defense behind him, etc. For a perfectly average pitcher, their RA/9 will match their run environment. For Murphy, his run environment was 4.11. For Britton, it was 4.32. For Papelbon, it was a whopping 5.00. This makes a huge difference - Papelbon may have gotten slightly worse results, but he was starting from a much more difficult positions. For another good way to illuminate the differences run environments can cause, I can bring up one of my favorite WAR comparisons! In 1965, Jim Maloney equalled Sandy Koufax in bWAR (and surpassed him if you count batting WAR) despite throwing 80 fewer innings with an ERA 0.50 higher. How did he do this? Simple. Sandy Koufax played in cavernous Dodger Stadium with a strong Dodger defense behind him, and so had a run environment of 3.49 RA/9. Jim Maloney, pitching at batter-friendly Crosley Stadium with a poor Reds defense behind him, had a run environment of 4.34, 0.85 more than Koufax. Since Maloney is expected to give up far more runs than Koufax and only gives up somewhat more runs, he has a large bWAIP lead. Run environment is 99% of the explanation behind ‘why does WAR give this weird result?’ questions. Most of the best reliever seasons by ERA have relatively a low run environment - after all, good defense and a friendly park factor really helps a reliever keep the runs down. Fernando Rodney had a run environment of 3.72 in his 0.60 ERA season, because he pitched at the Tropicana and had the Rays defense behind him. Mariano Rivera consistently had a high run environment (career average of 4.72) due to pitching in Yankee Stadium with horrible, horrible, horrible Yankees defenses behind him going against tough AL East opponents. He never had that ‘lucky’ season with a sub-1 ERA, which would likely have put him on this list. He has to live with the stigma of simply being the greatest reliever of all time, unfortunately. Papelbon had an incredible season in a run environment that was incredibly ill-suited for having an incredible season, so his bWAIP is leaps and bounds ahead of anyone else. So is Jonathan Papelbon’s 2006 the greatest single season by a reliever ever? Well, maybe. Pound-for-pound, it certainly is. But some relievers can pound more often than others, even if they're not pounding quite as hard. Should 70’s and 80’s relievers be penalized for being slightly worse in twice as many innings as Papelbon? John Hiller’s 1973 is a good candidate if you prefer quantity over quality - 7.9 bWAR in 125 innings in relief. Of course, you can flip it around - why penalize Papelbon for pitching less when relievers of that era were expected to pitch less? With the bWAIP, it’s safe to say Papelbon was more dominant in his role than Hiller was in his. Are there arguments for other pitchers and other seasons? Absolutely. Perhaps you prefer FIP for some reason - then you can probably give the nod to 2003 Eric Gagne, with 4.7 fWAR in 82 innings. I don’t think FIP works well for this type of analysis, because it doesn’t deal with actual results, but you do you. Perhaps you want to dive into BABIP and pick a season that wasn't as lucky - this seems like a fool's errand, since the best reliever seasons are all lucky ones. Of course, if you believe the best ability is availability, the nod goes to Mike Marshall, who appeared in 106 (!?!) games for the 1974 Dodgers. His 2.42 ERA is tarnished somewhat by the 3.33 run environment at Dodger Stadium at the time, however. Marshall apparently still has very interesting ideas on training to be able to pitch that many innings, but no MLB training staff will let him near their pitchers for some reason. Now, I know we’d all like someone else to have the best relief season ever in baseball - someone who didn’t attack teammates, someone who didn’t watch porn in the clubhouse, someone who doesn’t hit Manny Macha - ok, I’m fine with that one. But why couldn’t it have been someone like Eric Gagne, or Robb Nen, or Heathcliff Slocumb? I don’t think I’ve ever heard anything negative about those guys. Maybe it’s just time to move on, and let bygones be bygones. As I understand, Papelbon is just 24 hours from picking a new team, so it’ll be exciting to see him back in the league. Hopefully, he doesn’t choke his comeback.
Can someone explain to me how a player would qualify for batting average leaders.
I really want my boy CDick to win the title, but he isn't qualified. I also noticed SharkNado isn't qualified either and he would be in 2nd place. I know it has something to do with at bats, but how come Seth Smith (who is qualified) has 358 at bats and Nado has 360 yet Nado isn't.
Return to sender is busted... (Edit, some people explained that it only works against one hit and I do know that, I am indeed talking about some brawlers who will be affected by this more than others but also ranged vs. melee) I can see that the thinking behind gadgets are ways to supplement a brawler's kit. However, their solutions right now, which is to give weak (ranged) brawlers insane levels of survivability are really harmful to ranged vs. melee. The ranged vs. melee matchup is about finding ways to close the gap. If you manage to close the gap, you should be the one to have the upper hand. SC is giving ranged brawlers every utility to hard counter melee and fighter brawlers. I'm (was) a top 400 bibi player in the US and for some reason, apparently it is necessary to provide ranged brawlers with every utility that will help them to delete ME. Do you know who's the scariest brawler for me to deal with? Bea. Hug-the-walls-and-cry-levels of harass. No way to burn her ammo. Insane burst damage up close. The slow is a death sentence, so when Bea has her super up, you almost can't even look at her in the eyes. Not only that, the 1 HP survival is nuts. I don't think that Bea is busted, but the issue is that despite me putting in the work to get up close, I have even more additional hurdles because of current gadget design. (I know Bea's 1HP is a star power) I'm saying that ranged brawlers receive utility that are absolute godsends in close range combat. What do I have? Sigh. Meanwhile Bibi's sitting on a sub-average gadget that you have to squeeze every drop of utility out of in order to gain an advantage. Yes, it is a huge assistance to aggressive plays with Bibi, but it's nothing like the ctrl+alt+deletes that some other brawlers are given. Its biggest problem is that it doesn't even scale with power, so it's actually 100% useless as the game goes on (duo SD). In order to utilize Bibi's gadget effectively and not wasted, it must be absolutely pushed hard to its maximum possible potential. So because of the logic of trying to give ranged characters survivability against melee brawlers, I'm on the losing end here when we're within batting range suddenly, . Suddenly, after I close the gap as a melee brawler, I find out that I'm STILL not even close to being able to manage a kill? So when do I get the kill? If you think ranged characters should get a table flip or get-out-of-jail-free card then why shouldn't you give Frank a teleport? Oh, it would be 'unfair'. Do you think invulnerability is fair...? Return to sender? Dude, nani does insane amounts of damage up close, so much damage that I'M the one who's scared to close the gap. Yeah, the safest place for me to be against Nani is as far away as possible. He's not locked in here with ME, I'm locked in here with HIM. Bibi's most challenging and skill-differentiating aspect is about calculating how much damage you can take while running at people. I'm trying to burn ammo, trying to think if they will run low by the time I get there, and I'm thinking that my health will hold up against them, and I'm dodging as best as I can. And when I get there, now you're telling me I am required to take even more damage with this return gadget. That should never be the case. I think gadgets should be about supplementing gameplay. If you want to patch up weak spots, okay, tons of gadgets are about doing that. I wouldn't, but okay it's their game- but why are ranged brawlers getting their CQB weak spots patched, and melee brawlers aren't getting that treatment? Let me illustrate the weird table flips if you make gadgets capable of totally flipping the table and flipping the fight. On EMZ, your most important gadget will push people away from you, like gene's gadget. That's great because EMZ does bonkers damage at like 80-90% of her max range. She does the least damage of any brawler in the game, however, if you're in her face. The gadget puts you squarely in her max damage zone, and she deletes you in three puffs. As much as I hate edgar, here's a part of gameplay that I think makes no sense. I've often baited edgars into jumping me because my gadget will actually pretty much guarantee a kill. He jumps. I boop him. Super. Tap 3 times. He. Is. Dead. No further questions. Okay, great. I killed a busted brawler. But is that how gameplay really should work? IF I have that gadget up, edgar loses 100 times out of 100. Even though he's a melee brawler and he has closed the gap, he's actually killed himself! He is almost guaranteed dead because he is in EMZ's kill zone and there's nothing he can do about it. So in short, he has absolutely zero options if we're both playing the game out optimally. BUT... if I don't have the gadget? I'm dead. I can't describe the problem I'm seeing here that well, but I'm saying the logic of SC here is awkward to say the least. So I curbstomp edgar the first 3 times in a match, then now on his fourth go, he jumps me? I think gadget design should never totally 100% gimp someone or a class of opponents, even if it's heartily satisfying to boop and 3-puff someone with EMZ. Maybe gadgets should be changed to be less impactful but be put on a slow recharge?
The Sacred Grove and Grod's Law: How Path of Exile's fundamental itemization design conflicts with its own crafting system
Edit: Actual TL;DR - There is none. It's a complicated issue and I'm hoping you will take the time to read the post if you want to engage in the discussion. That's why the post is tagged 'discussion'. I made a lengthy comment after reading this post yesterday. What a crazy helmet! But it was the top comment chain in that thread that caught my attention, particularly this comment:
Annoyance leads to a group that is willing to put up with it getting all the rewards but hating the game because it's annoying and a second group that doesn't put up with it but hates that they're missing out on the stuff the first group is getting. Everyone loses.
My thoughts on this subject probably merit its own discussion thread, so here it is. This reminds me of Grod's Law:
Grod's Law: You cannot and should not balance bad mechanics by making them annoying to use
Years ago on the Giant in the Playground forums (a community for the D&D 3.5 edition tabletop roleplaying game), an argument broke out when a user recommended balancing the absurd power of magic using classes by making them meticulously track their material components for each spell. For those unaware, material costs for spells that didn't have an explicit monetary cost listed were generally just flavorful; holdovers from Gary Gygax's day at the helm, basically little Easter eggs in the game. Like Detect Thoughts required you to use 2 copper pieces to cast, e.g. 'penny for your thoughts?', and Fireball required you to use bat guano (known to be high in sulfur content) and saltpeter (chemically combined they create an exothermic reaction IRL). Anyway, your wizard or whatever was expected to buy a spell component pouch for a few gold and that pouch was assumed to have all the basic material components they'd need for most spells in limitless quantity. Spells in D&D can be incredibly powerful and versatile in their use, and the most powerful builds in the game all involve casting magic. Well, this user suggested balancing those spells by making wizards have to spend time gathering their individual material components. Want to cast Fireball? Spend a few days scraping bat shit off the cave floor, etc. The problem with this rationale is that it doesn't really solve any problems. Wizards are still just as powerful, but now the player has to go out of their way, detracting from the campaign and story, so they can scrape their spell juice off the dungeon floor. Grod argued the following:
The disruptive munchkin ignores it, argues it, or forces the rest of the group to suffer through it. His power remains the same, and he gets more annoying to play with.
The inappropriate powergamer figures out how to circumvent the restriction. His power remains the same.
The reasonable player either figures out how to circumvent the restriction (rendering it moot), avoids the class (turning it into a ban) or suffers through it. His power remains the same and/or his enjoyment goes down.
The new player avoids the class or suffers through it. His enjoyment goes down.
Tie this back into PoE already!
Yes, sorry. Thanks for putting up with my rambling. I kinda feel like harvest is like this - A terrible implementation of a mechanic that GGG (i.e. Chris Wilson) hates (i.e. thinks is 'bad' for the game). It highlights a massive problem with itemization and crafting in this game. Way too much character power is tied up in gear as compared to skills and passives. And Harvest crafts are so powerful because other crafting tools in PoE are are way too random, but the power creep in items over the years has made it way too appealing (various influence mods for example). Crafting most items is a gamble, plain and simple. Gambling is just not appealing to many people, and it can get expensive very fast. It's layers upon layers of RNG for even the chance of getting a decent item, some of which can be build-enabling, and there are very few deterministic methods of getting what you want. It's far easier to just buy a powerful item like that from someone else. Of course, that can't be done for SSF players, but even in trade league it can be problematic when GGG balances the game around meta-builds (supply and demand means you might not get to enjoy playing your build because upgrades are too expensive). GGG wants the game to be like this. They want you to engage in the skinner box of gambling RNG they've designed. Harvest just doesn't jive with how they want you to build your character, but it's immensely popular for anyone who hates gambling and wants to build their character in a predictable and targeted way. Their solution was to leave it in the game but make it as cumbersome and obnoxious to engage with as possible, so it becomes a massive opportunity cost to do so. You find a grove in a map. Cue 20 to 30 minutes of reviewing your stash and gear for possible upgrades and reviewing craft options for valuable ones that might be sold on TFT, etc. It completely disrupts the flow of the game and you can barely save enough valuable crafts for one or two side builds. When you finally do get one of the few good craft options, you might not even have something to use it on! Ultimately it's far more time-efficient to sell your good crafts (using 3rd party mechanisms, of course) and just keep playing the game.
How does this affect me, SaneExile?
The system affects the game exactly how Grod proposes:
The inappropriate powergamer figures out how to circumvent the restriction. His power remains the same.
PoE isn't a collaborative tabletop game like D&D, so "inappropriate powergamer" is, well, an inappropriate name for this group. Optimizing gameplay in PoE is perfectly reasonable and encouraged. But people who trade crafts in large volume on TFT or are in massive guilds throwing around thousands of exalts are not your average optimizer, and are not affected by this cumbersome barrier to entry. They find the optimal solution and just incorporate it into their gameplay and profit off it massively.
The reasonable player either figures out how to circumvent the restriction (rendering it moot), avoids the class (turning it into a ban) or suffers through it. His power remains the same and/or his enjoyment goes down.
Reasonable player -> average PoE player. The distinction between these two groups can get fuzzy, but it's hard to argue that someone playing 40 hours per week and someone playing 10 hours per week can achieve the same levels of effectiveness. Practice makes perfect, and practice takes time. Those in large communities are, likewise, not really playing the same game as the solo players (e.g. aura-bots, trade groups, etc.). For some, efficiency is measured in chaos per hour. For a few, it can be exalts per hour. This group is very much the former.
The new player avoids the class or suffers through it. His enjoyment goes down.
Class -> game mechanic. In this case, I'm sure a lot of people just pretend the Sacred Grove doesn't exist. Harvest is a thing that other people do. And if they do choose to engage with it, its cumbersomeness and complexity means their overall enjoyment of PoE is diminished. I couldn't even begin to explain the system to someone new to the game, at least in a reasonable manner that doesn't sound like a college economics lecture.
Conclusions
So, average people either suffer through harvest's implementation because it's so damn useful, or they avoid it and suffer FOMO or other gambling-induced psychological issues because the power-players in the community are cranking out incredibly OP gear on the trading market. Lose-Lose. This isn't unique to harvest, it's just the most obvious with this crafting system in the game. Crafting in general is fucked up, when you really consider how it's designed to prey on gambling addiction. This might not be a problem in the short term (obviously you don't need the helmet posted above to make specters work), but in the long term it throws off the balance of the game through power creep. The Raise Specters gem was meganerfed this league, but it's definitely still playable, and with items like this, it's not even that much weaker than before. Essentially, the power of the skill was offloaded from the gem to PoE's itemization system, and the barrier to OPness is that much higher. The rich get richer and the average market has one less meta build. GGG really fucked up Harvest, but it's only because Harvest highlighted just how fucked up crafting in this game is. Super powerful crafts have always been something only the PoE rich engage with regularly and with any significant profit. Harvest, for its league at least, let more casual players engage with that system. And the power creep ended up being so massive that they hamstrung it every chance they got. Ultimately, GGG's implementation ends up hurting the whole game because of Grod's Law - the benefits of it are minimized while the annoyance is maximized. It's possible we can benefit from some stopgap solutions, like more horticrafting station space, tradeable crafts (like beasts), etc., but many of these come with their own host of issues. They're just bandaids on the crafting mechanic as a whole, which is a product of the itemization design. TL;DR, thanks for coming to my TEDTalk. General disclaimer that this is my personal opinion of the state of the game, one that I've put way too much time into. It's still fun in a lot of ways, but the more I play the more I see problematic design features creeping their way into the game. Edit: Well this took off. I've been trying to address arguments from you all as best I can, but there's one I noticed in particular keeps coming up and I think my main post didn't clarify my stance as well as it could've: I'm not against the idea of RNG. Randomness in itself is not a problem for this genre or most games in general. I am however very much against the argument that, 'well the entire game is randomness so more randomness is fine.' I've tried to address that in this comment, which I'll link instead of reiterating.
Dr. Michael Burry is gonna iLUMNate your portfolio with tendies.
Alright listen up fellow autists, sit down and strap in, because I'm gonna sling you some DD so solid you won't be able to close those videos of your wife and her boyfriend over at cuckold fast enough. The Big Short You morons ever see the Big Short? No? Well, let me give you a rundown:
Autist reads about a million pages of subprime housing loan structures.
Determines that they are unsustainable and eventually they will go into default.
Goes to a big bank and purchases CDS, or credit default swap to short the housing market.
Doesn't buy puts because he isn't a gaybear, or something.
Housing market collapses, he makes billions.
So that's basically it. Lazy, poorly explained rundown? Yep. And fuck you, just go watch the movie. Some of his other notable trades this year are:
GME, which he bought back in Q1 2020, and we all know how that shit worked out.
PDS, which he purchased 4 million shares of at around $0.75 in Q2, currently trading at $17.85.
BBBY, 1 million shares bought around $10.60, currently trading at $20.24
CPA, flipped 155k shares, bought for around $50.56, currently trading at $75.78.
13F Overview I could go on, but my point here is Christian Bale is extremely autistic, and if you want to be autistic too, go long on one of his recent additions per his latest 13F: LUMN Technologies. Mr. Bale added a whopping 800k shares in Q3, his 4th largest addition to his portfolio this past quarter. What is LUMN, you ask? Well, they are formally Centurylink. And yes, we all know how much of a shit company that was. Hear me out though. A lot of companies are going through a bit of a renaissance these days. COVID is forcing public companies to be smarter, more efficient, and adaptable. Out are the boring days of boomer telephone lines. Centurylink has transformed themselves into Lumen Technologies, switching their focus to helping companies enter the "4IR", or Fourth Industrial Revolution. The term makes me gag. Some of their business exposure includes:
Adaptive Network Systems
Advanced Collaboration Platforms
AI-Driven Adaptive Threat Intelligence
Edge Computing *Hybrid Cloud Networks
Now I'm no network engineer, but that shit sounds pretty fancy right? LUMN Financials:
Recently beat their Q3 earnings, with non GAAP EPS at .40, the consensus estimate was .34.
EBITDA was $2.19B, and the company grew net income to $366M from a year-ago $302M.
Adjusted net income rose to $430M from $328M last year.
Generated Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities of $1.794 billion for the third quarter 2020.
Revenues fell 3.4% overall to $5.17B, compared to $5.350 billion for the third quarter 2019.
But revenue being down is bad right? Shut the fuck up, LUMN has almost fully recovered their revenue stream from last year, showing solid management in an era of COVID. Q3 ER I think this is a positive growth stock moving forward. Additionally, with further lockdowns on the horizon, we should start to see this equity continue to pick up traction, think NFLX, ZM, etc. In fact, this report from Mordor Intelligence estimates that the CAGR of Fiber Optics and IT solutions will grow at a 15% rate by 2025. Positions: 1/21 10c, 4/21 12c, 7/21 15c, and 11/21 15c These contracts are dirt cheap folks, all under a buck as it stands right now. Let Dr. Michael Burry do you and your portfolio a favor and hop on the Tendie Train. TL;DR: LUMN 1/21 10c, 4/21 12c, 7/21 15c, and 11/21 15c. EDIT: Forgot to mention that they recently announced 2 large Veteran's Affairs Contracts, one being a $795 million National Local Exchange Carrier Next Generation contract and a $195 million Data and Wide Area Network Carrier contract. EDIT 2 11/21 20:17 CST: Jesus fuck it's Saturday don't you degenerates ever go outside? Well, I guess since this has gained some traction hasn't it boys? I'll post some additional information tomorrow to address some of the comments and questions below. I can't do that shit tonight, I have a date with u/DonaldJTrumpsGhost's wife. EDIT 3: FUCK ME 2 HOURS INTO THIS UPDATE AND REDDIT TAKES A SHIT. I'm not redoing this tonight. Fucking P/E, P/B and P/S ratios, graphs, and everything for you degenerates. EDIT 4 11/23 20:47: Alright let's try this one again. Below is some additional information to the Bears in the comments who brought up some really great points. Thanks, guys. I'm still right though, and here's why: First I'm gonna get this out of the way: Everyone who's saying "bUrRy sUcKs uR cHeRrY pIcKiNg", ur momma's a hoe. Ok, I would have thought this goes without saying, but yeah, Burry loses trades. He's not out there batting 100%, or whatever the bullshit way y'all score batting averages in that boring ass sport. Then again, he definitely is some flavor of Autistic. You ever hang around one? These are the same people who will repeatedly punch themselves in the face because they don't like their new fleece-lined jacket, then play piano sonata no. 14 after hearing Beethoven once. This boy is major leagues, y'all still playing T-Ball. Anyways let's look at some price ratios:
PE Ratio: 8.40 compared to industry average 16.46.
PB Ratio: .80 compared to industry average 2.64.
PS Ratio: .52 compared to industry average of 2.48.
Don't know what these mean? Well fucking google it. Or youtube it if you have trouble reading. Point here is you're getting a lot of bang for your buck. This is a company that did $21bn in revenue (TTM) and is trading around $10 bucks a share. LUMN is rapidly reducing their debt, recently offering a $750m Private Debt deal to Qwest. Further, they are soon going ex-dividend, which I have seen as a drag on their growth and value. The current dividend yield is about 10%, and getting rid of this will help reduce liability. You got 3 days folks, if you don't own shares by 11/27, no mas dividends. So you know, buy some of this shit. Finch Subsidiaries & Partnerships: In a nod to my previous point, I think LUMN was a dying telecom giant who has shifted their focus to all the fancy tech shit people like these days. LUMN owns a lot of companies and has partnered with some household names. They are casting a very wide net, people:
Level 3 Communications, subsidy.
Qwest, subsidy.
Prism TV, subsidy.
Savvis, subsidy.
Expanded their partnership with Zoom to integrate video calling capabilities into their platform.
Increased edge computing exposure by partnering with VMware.
Gained exposure to virtual learning in public schools by partnering with Sunberry.
The list goes on and on. New Market Enterprises: The estimated CAGR for the demand for low-latency, modular fiber networks in the Asian market is expected to grow at about 9% over the next 5 years. Guess who has the largest fiber network in the world and is strategically positioned to provide the network backbone to the next generation of internet customers in Asia? Verizon! I'm kidding its LUMN. The Asian market demand is only second to the expected growth in North America. The aggressive shift to accommodating the rapidly growing tech sector is again the right move by Lumen. Every aspect of their new generation of products is performing well. You might not know it yet, but we are living through a bit of a paradigm shift in the way we communicate and behave. The rapid growth of the tech industry is a testament to that. I believe that LUMN will act as one of the major suppliers of the growing technological central nervous system. Trust me. At least this isn't a fucking mattress company. Go long. Mitigate your risk. TAKE PROFITS. Do your own DD. I'll meet you degenerates in Tendie Town.
March Update Balance Wishlist: Rulebook Changes and Reworks to Reduce Toxicity
Edit: Forgot to say. If you object anything or just wanna discuss about my decisions or your own ideas, please leave a comment. I love these discussions and now I'll have them 3 times less often, so I hope they are good. Heya! Since balance changes switched to quarterly, I decided to switch to making wishlists quarterly, too. I don't want to post several of them between updates since this strategy only works well with negative posts. This wishlist includes:
More suggestions than in my old wishlists (since it's for a whole quarter), including ones that would require a client update
Changes in bold
Hard data: Grand Challenges 3d data over the last 2 months
Community opinion: Tier list as rated by 50+ redditors in ClashRoyaleSerious * (took this info last month)
This is something I'm doing for the first time, and it's there to show the general opinion of people with adequate knowledge of the game. It's not something I considered much. It is more meant to imply that not only data supports me, but also most of the serious community. Even on S Tier cards, there would often be a couple votes that put the card into the F Tier.
Explanations of why I chose the cards and their exact changes, in which the most important points are in bold italic
Here are my ideas, starting with format changes, then rulebook changes, reworks, regular changes and finishing with small tweaks.
Tiebreaker changes
Change 1: Coinflips introduced all around the game, except for friendly battles
Coinflips are a feature in duels that proceeds after a tiebreaker fails to deduce a winner. I believe it would be a good idea to introduce them all around the game to discourage tie-trading. The only way to achieve a tie would now be a 3-crown tie or a tie in friendly battles. GL if anyone tries to coordinate a tie-trade like this. But coinflips are unneeded in games without stakes, so they shouldn't exist in friendly battles.
Change 2: Tiebreakers only resort to a coinflip if the opponent's Princess Towers have the same hitpoints as your Princess Towers, and the opponent's King Tower has the same hitpoints as your King Tower.
Otherwise, the tiebreaker always considers the two lowest towers currently on the field, not stopping after destroying one (unless it destroys a king). This makes the probability of a coinflip in regular battles astronomically low.
Change 3: Bandit can no longer survive while dashing and deal damage during a tiebreaker
And a few I mentioned lower down in the regular changes.
Initial attack speed. A stat that can make or break a card, as shown many times, yet it is hidden from us. So let's get it all tidy and ready to be revealed. Only a few units take longer than 1sec or shorter than 0.3sec to initiate their first attack, and they have a sharp or a sluggish animation while doing so. These changes would allow attack animations to play much more smoothly while also being reasonable for balance. 0.3 seconds is still really quick and 1sec is still really slow, so this does not limit balancing options. Keeping initial attacks in this range just makes more sense. While the point is in consistency, it's worth mentioning that I believe 5 of the changes improve game balance and only 2 of them aggravate it. 4 more are addressed in other ways lower down. Some of this may need to be addressed in future balances. Here are the specifics of what I consider to be relevant: Negatives Archers nerfed: Use 4-13%, Win 45-55%, B Tier Bomber nerfed: Use 2-4%, Win 41-50%, B- Tier Positives Fisherman nerfed: Use 9-14%, Win 53-60%, S- Tier Balloon nerfed: Use 12-17%, Win 50-54%, S Tier Goblin Cage nerfed: Use 12-16%, Win 51-56%, A Tier Dart Goblin buffed: Use 3-6%, Win 38-51%, A- Tier Inferno Tower buffed: Use 3-5%, Win 30-40%, B Tier
Elixir Golem Rework
Elixir Golem:
Hitpoints +32% (1196 > 1584)
Death spawn changed to 3 Elixir Blobs!!!
Speed increased to Medium
Range increased to Melee: Medium
Elixir Blobs:
Hitpoints +77% (299 > 528)
Damage +33% (52 > 70)
Usage 1-3%, Win 35-45%, B Tier Now here's the basics of the rework: You have a much more powerful Elixir Golem that spawns three MUCH more powerful Elixir Blobs. There aren't any Golemites, though. This reduces the overall impact of the card, but also gives your opponent one less elixir in the end. Recently, I've seen a few posts that claim the game has become Rock-Paper-Scissors (RPS) because decks that have either 70-30 or 30-70 matchups appear balanced. While this is just untrue for most decks, it is true for Elixir Golem decks. Elixir Golem decks are some of the most RPS: they either win hard or lose hard against the meta. Now, I have to mention that unless you play Elixir Golem, RPS doesn't determine your games so much. Even for Elixir Golem, it's 95% skill and 4% RPS. But it does result in matches being unfun. Battle Healer, another considerably annoying card, is also primarily used with Elixir Golem. Every Elixir Golem deck has Healer. I will excuse her, though, as Elixir Golem's mechanics are part of what makes the synergy and Healer can actually be found in some not-so-toxic decks. I don't want to just rant, but I simply have so much to say about this card. A total overhaul is needed beyond any shadow of a doubt. Many of you might not acknowledge it as an issue, because nowadays Elixir Golem is weak and Healer is easier to blame, but it is easily one of the most toxic cards in the game. There's little difference between mediocre and pro gameplay with it, besides pros' consistency. Maybe you'd say "it's good that lower-skilled players have cards they can use" but I will disagree. Thecard is inherently flawed beyond just being low-skill. I'll explain below. I really insist on this rework. CWA: Pro Ranks Top 20 Decks from LOWEST to HIGHEST Skill! (Vulkan rating Elixir Golem as the least skilled deck in the game. This is pretty old, but Elixir Golem decks haven't changed much since) Elixir Golem was also overpowered in the past and it only got health nerfs and a hit speed standardization, not fixing the underlying issues. At this point it is just a half-relevant card that people only tolerate because it's not the meta. ------------ The first issue with the card is how swarmy it becomes. It's hard to put in words, but in many matchups everything gets melted while trying to deal with the latter phases. Heal effects are the best in medium swarm decks, which the golemites phase really capitalizes on, and so Healer and Heal Spirit are good with EGolem alongside with Rage to increase the healing. So if you can't deal with a push, it will get healed back and you will get 3-crowned. Elixir Golem is basically a magnet for yet more cards that are considered toxic. Being swarmy is not an issue on its own, but it just so happens to amplify the other issues. The next issue with the card is the disconnect between elixir you spend and elixir you put on the board. I believe that an Elixir Golem that doesn't give elixir would cost about 5 elixir. So you get the stats of a 5 elixir card for 3 elixir, giving you an advantage of 2 elixir instantly. In the long run, you lose 2, but some of that elixir might be wasted by the opponent thanks to the sheer advantage you got and used. Then if you get a second Elixir Golem down, you are now 4 elixir up front. One of my decks for Clan Wars II is an EGolem one and this is how some of the most disgusting 3-crown wins happen. In the early days of the pro scene, often both players would ban Elixir Collector to have a sort of "Gentleman game" and not abuse the downward spiral of not being able to stop these custom elixir advantages, which is what Elixir Golem does without there even being any counterplay. Nowadays, the equivalent is that a lot of pros were upset when an Elixir Golem deck finished #1 on ladder, saying that "it doesn't count". Actually there is a counterplay that devs kept talking about: getting elixir from the blobs. Probably the biggest issue is how long it takes to gain some of the lead back. You first need to get through an Elixir Golem with 1196 hitpoints. Then, only after then killing an Elixir Golemite with 598 hitpoints, you can start getting elixir by killing an elixir blob with 299 hitpoints. That makes it 1993 damage you need to deal to get just the first elixir. Add 300-400 is added because of wasted damage and it's 2400... except wait, actually you need to deal 300 more damage to get to a blob because EGolem got healed by a Heal Spirit. Also, 100 more because of the Healer. And 100 more, and 100 more... Not to mention your units will probably retarget to the support or the other golemite before starting to attack the blobs, and that each split might reset the attack animation of your units. Basically, if you use a few point attackers instead of splash, it can often take 3000+ damage, as much as a 5-elixir Giant, just to pop a single blob and start recovering from the disadvantage. This is an awful lack of counterplay on most occasions. All of the high-damage splash attackers that counter this, like Wizard and old Executioner, are/were divisive cards. Besides, with the limited number of cards that handle this, it actually adds to the RPS. ------------ With the changes, the overall hitpoints of the card are reduced from 3588 to 3168 (-12%) Not so swarmy anymore: The number of units in Elixir Golem goes from 7 to 4, and from 3 splits to 1. The average hitpoints of a unit increase from 513 to 792 (more than 50%), reducing the wasted damage and re-targets of your defense. You no longer get a 2 elixir lead just by playing it: This lead you get is massively reduced. In my opinion, Elixir Golem would now be worth around 4.5 elixir, reducing this effect by about 25%. Elixir Golem would be more of a cheap cycle-style tank than a powerhouse. Also, because the golem walks faster (by 33%), split pushing will only happen when the opponent is already in the middle of defending the first one and possibly has some of the ground taken back. The opponent Actually has counterplay: While popping one blob is a little more work (19932112), there is only one re-targeting on the way. But perhaps the more important thing is the reduction of wasted damage. After the Golem pops, you can simply fireball the Elixir Blobs and get your lead back. This would massively discourage heal combos and give rise to less toxic Elixir Golem decks. Meanwhile, it would also encourage taking another look at Healer and Heal Spirit in the future. So what will Elixir Golem be about? I don't know. Maybe beatdown-cycle hybrids? Or split pushing? After trying to imagine it, I thought it was weak, so just to "play it safe", I also buffed the melee range. The current short range looks visually weird for such a huge guy. ----- I am disappointed that Elixir Golem has come to be this. I knew from the start its problems were deep. Frankly, not many people in the community, even the pro community, think about things this way. People make up their opinions based on how they feel in battles, which made complaints like "the blobs deal too much damage" take over general concerns about the card's design as they were easier to implement. This led us to some of the most obnoxious decks in the game. It needs to be fixed already. Please.
Freeze Rework
Cost reduced to 3 elixir
Duration -37.5% (4sec > 2.5sec)
Usage 3-5%, Win 41-52%, C+ Tier Even though Freeze's duration was reduced from 5 to 4 seconds, it remains one of the cards that if you see in a deck, you know the deck will be toxic. The reason for this is obvious: it completely halts counterplay, freezing your units for very long. Two years ago, Freeze was given damage while its duration at level 13 was reduced by 34%. This change made Freeze a lot more bearable, but it is still toxic. When Clash of Clans reworked their Freeze spell into a little frosty bottle, I was thrilled, thinking that Clash Royale might follow this direction. But it's been a few years and this hasn't happened. Freeze would be way less frustrating to face if it didn't last for as long. So I'm suggesting this change. Ideally, Freeze retains a ~3% use rate, but those 1.5% of losses don't feel unfair.
Nerfs
Barbarian Barrel nerf: Barbarian deploy time increased (0.5sec > 1sec)
Usage 29-35%, Win 53-58%, S Tier This card makes me question why devs let some cards rot for years and others shine for months. Should've been balanced before balance changes ever became quarterly.
Usage 7-10%, Win 55-59%, A+ Tier Lava Hound is inarguably a very strong win condition. For a long time, it has boasted a 55%+ winrate. Also, it features a sight range inconsistency that forces buildings to be played in less convenient placements. So I'm giving Lava Hound a small nerf and fixing this frustrating inconsistency.
Hunter nerf: Bullets reduced to 9 (removed rightmost bullet)
Usage 22-28%, Win 55-59%, S Tier Hunter has held an extraordinary winrate for many seasons, which shows there's more to him than his versatility. This suggested change is pretty big, but not as big as it looks since the rightmost bullet is the one that least often hits enemies. Switching to an odd number of bullets also happens to fix an inconsistency with Hunter's aim leaning to the right.
Currently: Use 15%, Win 56% Electro Spirit was thought to be weak until recently, when it started boasting a massive use and winrate and got on top ladder even despite often being underleveled. These changes shift its power a little bit, and in combination should add up to a nerf. Increased damage: It makes the ESpirit more damage-based and consistent with Ice Spirit. But mostly, it makes the card more level-dependent. Currently, it's questionable whether it should even be upgraded to max level, as doing so improves few interactions but allows for easier king tower activations when it is cycled. I believe there should be no cards where it is questionable whether upgrading is beneficial at all. Less chaining: It counteracts the damage buff. But mostly, it makes the card more predictable. Currently, it's near-impossible to predict what the last few zaps will strike and whether they will strike at all.
Miner nerf: Underground movement speed increased, 0.5sec "burrow out" time introduced
Usage 21-28%, Win 54-58%, A+ Tier Basically, Miner would travel faster underground, but just before he comes out of the ground, he would stop and take a moment to burrow his way out, revealing his exact tile. Overall, the travel to a princess tower would take about the same amount of time. As I'm writing this, Miner has a 55% winrate in Wall Breakers decks, 57% in Lava Hound decks, and 54% in other decks. This kind of range has held for many months. He is all around a little too strong, besides just being used with other strong cards. I normally avoid being controversial, but this list of balance changes would be incomplete without a Miner nerf. I was still careful with the nerf I decided on, although I expect it to be controversial still This change aims to make it possible to consistently react to Miner's exact placement tile. An issue a lot of players have with Miner is that once he is sent to a tower, it's random whether you'll predict it correctly or take several hits. Imagine if there was no indication of whether Goblin Barrels are tricky: that's what Miner is like, just with less punishment if you get it wrong. Some say this is skill-based because it asks you to read your opponent, but that's not the case when there are several equally good Miner placements and a skilled player can choose at random. The burrow time makes Miner spend 0.5sec on the tile where he is going to appear, so fast reactions at the last moment would be possible. This mostly nerfs him in competitive, where he is the most prominent.
Goblins: Use 1%, Win 40-50%, C- Tier Goblin Gang: Use 7-11%, Win 40-50%, B+ Tier Goblin Barrel: Use 7-11%, Win 40-47%, A- Tier The new rule on initial attacks hurts goblin cards when they're already not so great. So I gave them a melee range buff, bringing them to the standard Melee Short. I'm sure most players wouldn't notice this. It should be a very minor buff to Goblins and not much for Goblin Gang and Goblin Barrel.
Mother Witch: Changes to The Curse mechanic
The Curse does not expire
The only exceptions for The Curse are now shields and buildings.
Units with a death spawn don't turn into hogs, the death spawn units now inherit The Curse (i.e. Lava Hound's curse is transferred to the pups)
Units with death damage don't get affected by The Curse when turning into hogs (bugfix)
Usage: <1%, Insufficient data for win rate data, C- Tier Mother Witch is already designed in a way that favors attacking smaller units, so her curse doesn't need to expire when she attacks a tanky troop. Besides this, if Mother Witch's curse affected death spawns, she would become a better counterplay against a few extra units, mostly Lava Hound, Elixir Golem, and especially Skeleton Barrel. This helps with the problem that she often feels like dead weight in decks. You would no longer necessarily lose all 10 games before facing a Graveyard. While these changes might not be enough for Mother Witch, they finess her Curse mechanic, which would make it easier to balance her in the traditional ways in the future.
Usage 1%, Win 40-47%, C Tier Heal Spirit doesn't feel right with reduced damage. None of the spirits on the Royale arena are particularly combative, they all just want to give hugs, and Heal Spirit is no different. Even with its weak stats, its healing is still disproportionally massive. I insist that's what should be nerfed instead of its damage.
Guards buff: Damage +7.5% (90 > 97)
Usage 1%, Win 30-45%, C+ Tier The recent rebalance of Guards wasn't much of a buff, unsurprisingly. So I gave them a much more definitive buff here. Even though it doesn't change many relevant interactions, it's quite a big increase.
Usage 1%, Win 25-40%, C- Tier Changed to have the same initial attack speed as Cannon Cart, as it was supposed to 20 seasons ago. Cannon might even become viable with this change.
Tornado inconsistency fixed: Crown Tower Damage reduced to 30% of regular damage (24 > 21)
Usage 22-26%, Win 50-52%, S- Tier Not very relevant to game balance, but it's a thing.
Royal Ghost bugfix: Now takes damage from centered melee splash before his first attack
Symmetry tweak to 6 cards: Deployment flipped based on the lane they are played
Barbarians, Bats, Goblin Gang, Royal Hogs, Minion Horde, Royal Recruits,
Cards with 2 or 3 units in them abide by this rule. These six don't, which results in all sorts of inconsistent interactions
Note 1: For considering tiers, I took each vote as S=4, A=3, B=2, C=1, F=0; for M being the mean of all votes, I used the floor function of (M-0.5)x13/3 to decide how many tiers above F the card was, with negative being F- (only Mirror) and more than 12 being S+ (only Knight) Note 2: This is a repost. Hello, brigadiers who sort by New and like to downvote right away!
New Titans #4: All Together Now << | < | > | >> Author: FrostFireFive Book: New Titans Arc: Titans Hunt Set: 56 Dick Grayson didn’t know how long they were in the air for. He had been placed in shackles that had his arms pulled back, his chest secured in some type of vest that had suspended him in the air. Maybe in another time he would have been plotting his escape, but he just couldn’t. He deserved this, maybe more than anyone else. Atonement by punishment was a fitting end for a man who couldn’t protect what he loved. Of course, Nightwing wasn’t quite alone in the aircraft. Wally West glared at the sullen hero. His restraints came with a strange rubber-looking sphere. They prevented his hands or feet from gaining purchase on any surface, giving him plenty of time to wonder why he was in this mess To make matters worse his mask was off, pulled down to the back of his neck. All he could think about was if the Wildebeests knew who he was, who would they go after first. Iris? Frances? Hartley? Could they trace back to Barry or Jay? There was only one man to blame for this, and Wally was looking right in front of him. “This is your fault you know,” Wally said. “If you had just stayed with us we wouldn’t be here. But you just have to be the Lone Ranger don’t you? Always off on your own, doing what’s right for Dick Grayson and no one else.” “Wally,” Dick mumbled. “I was only doing what I thought would help us in the situation. Sometimes that works and sometimes it doesn’t.” “Bullshit,” Wally responded. “Don’t think I haven’t forgotten who you are. I may be one of the fastest people alive, but the only person running is you.” “You think I wanted this,” Nightwing said. “I was perfectly content not having another reunion. Blame the guys who decided that it was open season on anyone whoever thought it was a good idea to call themselves Titans. We’re all still paying for our time together.” “When did you get so melodramatic,” Wally observed. “We were friends Dick, or at least could talk without sounding like the world was going to end. I know Coast City was painful but we’re not things you can walk away from. I know that feeling, what it's like to be abandoned. But you can’t just leave the people you cared about behind to save yourself from pain.” “It’s about saving others,” Nightwing responded. “Maybe if I’m not around people won’t get hurt. I mean I don’t exactly have the best batting average when it comes to these things. The orphanage, Babs, Teen Titans, the Titans. Every time Wally it all falls apart. And I can’t...I can’t do it anymore.” “Well we’ve all been dealt bad hands, Dick,” Wally said. “It’s what we do next that counts the most.” Before Nightwing could respond the dropship began its descent, they had arrived at their destination. Quickly a Wildebeest soldier walked back to the prisoner bay and began working on a console. “We’re going to transfer you to the holding cells with the rest of your friends,” the soldier said. “Then, the boss wants to see all of you. He has plans for you all. Big plans. As he pressed the commands on the screen the ship whirled to life as the large restrains lowered from the ship, the two kept their heads lowered not knowing their next move. As they were taken into the base all Wally could think was. “Really hope Donna’s bringing the cavalry.” As Nightwing’s restraint began lowering down, he realized that Wally was right. Quietly his tongue pressed against his back right molar activating a homing tracker. “OK Wally,” he thought. “Let’s play this hand then.” … “So it’s just us? Isn’t that a suicide mission?” Stargirl asked nervously as she sat behind Argonaut in the League jumpjet. “There has to be more than just us, what about the Justice League?” “They’re not answering, apparently their big meeting took them...somewhere else,” Argonaut said as she looked at the screen, the blinker on the radar still blinking. “Besides Stargirl, we need to take care of this quickly, who knows who else these Wildebeests are going to grab and abduct. We’re ending this here.” “OK, that’s great and all princess, but how exactly are we going to find them?” Arsenal asked as he continued to work on his arrows next to Stargirl in the back. He had taken more goodies from the remaining parts left from that workbench. “Aren’t we just flying around in circles?” “Nightwing activated his tracker,” Argonaut responded and tapped at the blinker on the screen. We know it’s last location before it cut out. We’ll start there and then...we’ll figure it out it from there. Donna Troy was still getting used to being a leader. She didn’t expect to be wearing a costume and jetting off to who knows where today. But her family needed her help, and it was more than enough to put on a costume again. She just had to figure how to project strength. Donna just kept thinking, “What would Diana do?” “So where is pretty boy anyway?” Arsenal asked. “Did they take him and Kid Flash to some remote desolate wasteland, a volcano lair, some wartorn country.” “No,” Donna said with a smirk. “Chicago.” … Nightwing and Kid Flash quickly made their way through the facility, wheeled in their restraints. The Wildebeests had established quickly it looked like, with crates and stations still being set up. For the first time since this damn hunt had begun Dick Grayson was beginning to notice weaknesses in the organization. The two were then placed in the cellblock area of the compound. Three cells already had occupants as Kid Flash and Nightwing were thrown into the remaining two. An energy field quickly sprung up, preventing them from leaving their individual cells. The two quickly acclimated to their surroundings. Kid Flash pulled up his mask before quickly trying to vibrate through the energy field before getting knocked back against the cold metal wall. “Ow,” he mumbled before getting back up. “That’s not exactly going to work KF,” a voice said from across the room. Garfield Logan was sitting cross-legged on the floor of a cell as he looked at the two familiar faces. “They really don’t want us to get out of here. Trust me, I’ve tried, not even a four hundred pound gorilla could break through.” “Beast Boy?” Kid Flash asked. “They got you too?” “Right outside my place after DnD night with Vic,” he explained. “And to think I was having fun being Fie the gregarious Barbarian. Totally killed the buzz of that night.” Gar chuckled and began to stand up. “I see they got you and Nightwing. Any idea what we’re up against boys?” “Some type of military force,” Kid Flash explained. “They have impressive tech for what seems to be a one-track group.” “That’s what I thought!” Another voice called out from the cell next to Beast Boy called out. Cassie Sandmark was shadow boxing in her cell. She was in black tights, with a blue and red Wonder Woman shirt with a faded red hoodie tied around her waist. Wonder Girl was growing restless in her cell. “I mean normally there should be a secondary objective or something but these guys just wanted me, it was weird.” “They’re focused for sure,” Nightwing finally responded. “But I don’t think they’re that strong. The only reason they’ve been able to capture most of us is by taking us by surprise. They’re still new and relying mostly on their tech for an advantage. I mean me, Kid Flash, Arsenal, Fury, and Stargirl were able to take most of them when we stood our ground instead of running.” “Did you say Stargirl,” a third and final voice called out. Maxine Hunkel sat on the bench of her cell as she made a little whirlwind in her hand “Is she OK? I tried warning her on my phone but those guys broke it before I could send a message. My grandma’s going to kill me for going through another phone” “She was safe the last time I checked,” Kid Flash responded. “Her, Arsenal, and Don...Fury were doing well before I went down, and they weren't transferred with us. But I have no idea where they are, or if they’re even coming to save us. Hell I don’t even know where exactly here is exactly.” Before any of them could respond a hiss came through all of their cells. Gas filled the cells one by one each of them were knocked out. As Nightwing drifted to sleep all he could think was that Donna better get here fast. … “They’re where?” Arsenal said as the jump jet entered Chicago airspace. “Underground,” Argonaut responded as she turned on the cloaking function of the jet. They were going to have to rocket through the city, and she didn’t need any prying eyes wondering what the “Justice League” were doing in Chicago. “Judging by this the entrance is through an old construction site for something called...the Spire?” “It was an abandoned construction project the city never bothered to fill up,” Stargirl responded. “It looks like a Chicago business magnate by the name of…:Loren Jupiter purchased it two years ago, said he wanted to use it to put Chicago on the map. Arsenal looked blankly at the young heroine. “How the hell do you know all of that, last time I checked your powers were all about shooting...whatever you shoot out of that staff.” Stargirl quickly held up her phone to show Arsenal where she had found her information. “Wikipedia,” She said with a smile. “Of course,” Arsenal mumbled before scrunching in his seat. The jet quickly moved through the Chicago skyline to its destination. Soon it hovered over the gaping crater and slowly began its descent into the underground below. As they reached the end of the seventy-six foot hole and landed they noticed a freshly carved secondary path. “Well it looks like we’re here Princess,” Arsenal mused. “Care to lead the way?” “Of course,” Argonaut said as they embarked from the jet and slowly made their way to a large metal door blocking their path. “Ok, once we crack open this door expect resistance. Are you two ready for it?” “I mean considering my day before this was probably going to be shaking down some dirty business for my boss, yea I’m ready for this,” Arsenal said as he knocked his bow. “What about you kid?” “Ready as I’ll ever be,” Stargirl said as she gripped her staff tightly, not knowing what was on the other side of the door, it was time for her to become a real hero. Argonaut looked at the door, took a deep breath and stepped back before making a running charge at the door, her fist connected with the cold metal of the door as it bent open and into the Wildebeest facility. They were done running, it was time to finally strike back against those who made them their prey. The three charged in with Arognaut thinking to herself, “Hold on Wally and Dick, we’re coming.” … “Ugh,” Nightwing groaned as he opened his eyes. He was hanging upside down, attached to one some type of harness, his legs and arms shackled to it. He looked around and noticed the rest of the heroes in the same predicament. Scientists in cleansuits were preparing something behind the electronic panels and consoles. A sickly girl laid behind them in a hospital bed with wires running through them. “Ah I see you’re awake,” A sharply dressed man walked up to Nightwing. His white hair was slicked back. His black suit was accented by a yellow tie, as he smoked a cigarette, its smoke floating to fill the heroes nostrils. “It’s problematic we weren’t able to get your friends, but the procedure should be fine with just the five of you. And if it doesn’t...well we’ll just have to find your friends after all.” “What do you want with us,” Nighttwing mumbled. “I’ve never seen you in my life and yet you seem to really want me and my associates.” “My daughter knew you,” he responded. “Well not exactly knew you knew you, but she had your pictures. Wanted to be a hero just like those crazy Titans, kids trying to make a difference in a world that just didn’t listen. Got it in her head that if she was a superhero, she’d somehow get to meet her idols. Decided to dress up and go on patrol…” Hea paused for minute before taking a huff of his cigarette. “Her reward was getting shot on her first night. My poor Lilith…” “I’m sorry,” Nightwing responded. “I know what its like to lose a loved one. But that doesn’t mean you have to take it out on the people she idolized.” “No, I do,” He responded. “I’m making sure that no other kid gets hurt from any hero, including my daughter. That machine you’re hooked up to? It drains the life force and gives it back to one who needs it. You five are a necessary sacrifice to bring my daughter back. And then after you? Then we go after the big guns. Think of you as a trial run. Have fun.” The man walked away from the five and to the scientists busy working on the machinery. Slowly but surely the sounds of an electronic whirl began coming to life. The glowing yellow lights crew brighter as the five heroes withered in pain, their bodies jerking up and down as they tried struggling through their shackles. “All signs are good Wildebeest Prime,” a scientist said. “We’ll start the transfer in a few minutes. She’ll be home soon for you.” “Finally,” he mumbled, proud that his Society had accomplished their goal. Soon he would have everything he had ever wanted. WHIIIIIIIZZZZZZ An arrow quickly flew through the air, hitting the center of the shackles of the captive young heroes. Electricity coursed through them before releasing each of the captives. Arsenal wiped his brow as him, Argonaut, and Stargirl stood at the broken doors of the labs. “Man I am really glad those weren’t the glue arrows,” he said with a laugh. “Cassie!” Argonaut called out as she flew to catch the falling Wonder Girl. “Hey Donna,” she said with a smile. “Glad to see you too, and in a new outfit too.” “It’s a gift from Diana,” Argonaut explained. “Are you ok? I’m sorry if I haven’t checked in since Christmas. I figured you were OK in Gateway, I didn’t realize that…” “Hey, it’s fine, this probably gives us an excuse to check more in with each other,” Wonder Girl jokes. “Now can you put me down so we can beat these guys up?” Argonaut smirked before putting her down, the rest of the heroes circled around each other. There would be time for pleasantries later. Especially as the guards gathered around the heroes, their laser rifles humming to life. “Well then,” Arsenal said as they looked around. “You want to say it Princess?” “Nah,” she responded. “Stargirl?” “Wait really?” Stargirl asked excitedly perking up before preparing her staff, knowing the job that had to be done. She took a deep breath before saying what she had always wanted to say. “Titans Together!” And with that, the heroes charged at guards in front of them. … Argonaut and Wonder Girl charged first hitting some of the smaller grunts away from the crowd. They worked together in harmony, slamming goons together and setting the other up. “You know I didn’t exactly expect you in costume, especially that sparkly number. Is this a one-time thing or are we going to see more of…” Wonder Girl said as she tossed a soldier to Argonaut Argonaut punched the set up from Wonder Girl, sending him towards the glass separating the chamber and the labs. “Argonaut, she responded. And I’m not sure really. I’m not going to lie and say this doesn’t feel nice, but let's just take down the bad guys before we talk about my future,” she responded with a smirk. As the two fought Nightwing was busy helping Kid Flash and Cyclone up. The two were staggered but Nightwing quickly got them up to speed. “So because someone my age got hurt, caused this whole revenge scheme?” Cyclone asked. “That’s so...sad.” “Doesn’t make it right,” Kid Flash responded. “So I’m guessing you need us to do something? Right Lone Ranger?” he joked to Nightwing. “Argonaut and Wonder Girl are leading the charge in the front. But they came in through that way.” He pointed to the corridor that the others had broken into. “I need you two to make sure no one gets through to us. We need some wind.” “I can do that!” Cyclone said excitedly as she moved to protect the corridor. She put her hands out and soon wind came pouring out of her hands, preventing anyone from getting through. Kid Flash quickly zipped next to her, resigned to the fact that he was on crowd control again. After directing them Nightwing ran forward to help Argonaut and Wonder Girl, jumping back into the crowded fray of Wildebeest soldiers. As he moved quickly through the skirmish leaping and diving to get to his allies. As he moved forward Arsenal and Beast Boy were mid-argument. “So you’re telling me you can turn into any animal, and you chose something mundane as a gorilla? I don’t really get you, man,” he said as he fired a glue grenade arrow at the troops inching toward them. Beast Boy was currently a gorilla, slamming against one of the few remaining hybrids left from the Wildebeest labs. “I don’t you...ungh...taking care of these guys. What do you want me to turn into, a dinosaur?” “Well...yeah,” Arsenal joked before knocking another arrow. As he began firing more arrows, at the crowds pushing the armed force back he noticed Stargirl darting around in the air, looking for weakness and helping Arsenal push soldiers back. “Hey Stargirl! Where’s everyone else? Please tell me we’re actually kicking their ass.” “Well...I think we are?” she mused. “I’ve never been in a big battle like this, is it supposed to be this...chaotic?” “It’s not a Titans reunion if we’re not fighting someone,” Beast Boy chuckled before slamming his fist against one of the hybrids. “Just be happy we’re not fighting each other for a change.” As the five out in the main chamber finished beating the soldiers and hybrids thrown at them, Nightwing charged into the science room seeing Argonaut and Wonder Girl stood in front of Lilith’s hospital bed. Wildebeest Prime’s hair was a mess, his tie loose, as he kneeled bedside by his daughter. “I’m so sorry Lilly,” he mumbled as he realized his plans and organization were up in flames. Once again he was truly alone, “Argonaut what the hell is going on here,” He asked, angered that Argonaut hadn’t taken out the man who was behind all of this. “Take him out so we can end this finally. This can be all over.” “It is over Nightwing,” Argonaut responded. Unlike Nightwing who could only see the enemy in front of him, Donna understood who Wildebeest Prime really was in the moment. A father trying to bring his daughter home, for a father’s love is a dangerous thing. “Let him have this one moment.” The three just stood there, the hunt was over. … Things wrapped quickly from there, the remaining forces of the Wildebeests either scattered or surrendered as the heroes continued to clear them out of the base. As the dust finally settled they moved topside, the eight of them waiting for the authorities to arrive. “That was kinda fun in a weird way,” Stargirl beamed as she sat on her staff, floating in the air. “I mean it’s not every day you get to be a glorified Titan.” “We’re not Titans,” Nightwing mumbled. “This was a one-time thing. I appreciate all of you coming to help and making the best of the situation.” “Yea I got no interest in being one right now,” Beast Boy said. “I’ve got my own things to do and frankly I’m not much of a joiner. Now or ever.” “And I need to get back to Gateway, Diana and Chloe are probably worried,” Wonder Girl responded. After conversing the eight heroes began to move into the jumpjet to be dropped off at their respective homes, however, Argonaut pulled Stargirl aside. “It was a good time Stargirl,” she explained. “It opened my eyes to a lot of things.” “Really? Like what?” she asked in awe. Courtney still hadn’t got used to the fact that she was talking to some of her heroes. The whole thing was surreal, and to see people brush it off because of some old wounds bothered her. Before Donna spoke she placed a small circular flat item in her hands. In the middle of it was a large white T. “We’ll be in touch,” Argonaut responded before walking into the jumpjet. The Titans were far from over. Next: Who will be the New Titans? Be here in 30 as Dick and Donna discuss the future, Stargirl finds advice from an unlikely place, and Arsenal makes an important choice. And follow Wonder Girl to Wonder Woman #42 as Aquaman writeru/Predaplanttakes the wheel!
INTRODUCTION: With the recent chaos in the financial markets, both stock and crypto, there's been a massive influx of new investors to our community. As of the time of me writing, we're the number 8 fastest growing community on Reddit! I think it's important that we use this chance to educate our newcomers so that they'll be better equipped to navigate this often confusing space and hopefully be able to contribute to the discussion in the future. The objective of this post will be to explain some of the most important concepts that you'll encounter while investing in cryptocurrency. (I won't be covering the details of the technology in this post- for that, I recommend 3Blue1Brown's "But how does bitcoin actually work?" on Youtube. While it's tailored to Bitcoin, it explains the ins and outs of a basic blockchain.) VALUE FUNDAMENTALS: SPOT PRICE - This is the price that you frequently see associated with each coin. This is the price that you can expect to buy or sell at and have your order processed immediately. A "Market Buy" will immediately find you the lowest price seller, while a "Market Sell" will find you the highest price buyer. Alternatively, you can place a "Limit Buy" and name a price. For example, if coin X has a spot price of 140USD, you can set a Limit Buy for 135USD. This order will only execute once the price of coin X drops to 135USD or lower. The same applies to a Limit Sell, if the price rises to your chosen price or higher. CIRCULATING SUPPLY - This is the number of any given coin that has been placed into the open market. Bitcoin, for example, currently has a circulating supply of 19 million coins. This is also the overall supply, as there is no governing body that holds the coin in reserve. Stellar is an example of differing circulating and total supplies; while there are 22.3 billion Stellar Lumens circulating, there are a total of 50 billion in existence. This is because Stellar has a non-profit governing body that holds roughly 27.7 billion Stellar Lumens in reserve to use for development and promotion. MARKET CAP - This is the overall valuation of a cryptocurrency. Simply put, "Price x Supply = Market Cap". For example, if coin X has a spot price of 20 dollars and a supply of 20 million, the market cap would be 400 million dollars. This is a better indicator of value than just the price. For example, XLM has a current price of 0.34USD, while AAVE is priced at 301.56USD. This would lead one to believe that AAVE is more valuable overall but 1000x, but it actually has just under half the market cap of XLM (3.7B vs 7.5B) due to vast supply differences. This is the issue with the "DOGE TO A DOLLAR" claim. It looks possible because it's a 96 cent movement in price, but the reality is that DOGE would have to increase by 125 Billion USD in overall valuation. VOLUME - The number of coins traded over a period of time, almost always 24h. This is hard to provide concrete examples for, but is something you can get a feel for over time. A very rough explanation of this concept, is that higher volume trading is more representative of an accurate valuation. This is why you may see a coin's price drift around during off hours, then suddenly snap up or down along with comments in the daily thread saying "Europe just woke up!" MISCELLANEOUS TERMS: HODL - Long term holding, especially through dips. Running joke in the crypto community, but also good advice. DCA - Dollar Cost Averaging. This is an investing method where you buy small amounts over a period of time rather than a large amount all at once. This reduces your exposure to short-term volatility and is often recommended during dips. ATH - All Time High. A new highest price that a particular coin has seen. KYC - Know Your Customer. A set of regulations from governments that require exchanges to collect information on their customers. This is why you may be asked for your driver's license or SSN. DeFi - Decentralized Finance. An ecosystem of permissionless banking, loans, and trading largely based on Ethereum. CeFi - Centralized Finance. Banking, loans, and trading that require a central authority. Coinbase is an example of a CeFi brokerage, while UniSwap is an example of a DeFi brokerage. ERC-20 Token - Any of a variety of tokens that are based on Ethereum. Examples include BAT, OMG, etc. Hardware Wallet/Cold Storage: A method of storing cryptocurrency using a specialized external device that protects your private key from being exposed. You can access this wallet using your Hardware Wallet and PIN, or by putting your recovery phrase into any hardware wallet. YOU SHOULD KNOW: -NEVER SHARE YOUR RECOVERY PHRASE. No one with hood inteions will EVER ask you for this. If your recovery phrase is entered into any electronic device other than a hardware wallet, assume you've been compromised. -Do your own research. A lot of people are going to spam you with their favorite coin and pretend it has zero weaknesses. They do not care about you, they are trying to pump their coin. -Cryptocurrency is an extremely volatile asset. +/-20% days are very common. Don't panic buy, don't panic sell. -Do not invest more than you can afford to lose. The risks and rewards of crypto investing are both massive. On a related note, do not touch margin/leverage unless you are 100% sure what you're doing. You can and likely will lose MORE than you put in. -Not your keys, not your crypto. Some exchanges, such as Robinhood or PayPal, allow you to "buy" crypto but don't allow you to send or withdraw it. You do not own this crypto, you own the right to track the price of their crypto. It is strongly recommended that you use an exchange that let's you withdraw your coins to an external wallet. -Our daily threads run 24/7. If you want to bounce ideas around or join in the hype, hop on in. We don't bite. -NEVER SHARE YOUR RECOVERY PHRASE. CONCLUSION: This is generally a friendly and welcoming community. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask here or in the daily thread and myself or someone else will be more than happy to help you. In the near future, I plan to do this kind of post covering individual currencies. Let me know if you have suggestions or things you'd like to see. Good luck and happy hodling.
[OC] Why Paul Depodesta might be making the Browns the most efficient team in the league in terms of spending, talent, and wins.
We all know Paul Depodesta as the analytical "guru" that was brought in to change how the Browns process the game of football, and morph the way in which the Browns evaluate talent and success.
Depo is a pretty tight lipped executive, he likes to lurk in the shadows and does his work rather than live in the spotlight like other execs. Every indication from the team this year has pointed to Depo having a larger say in operational decisions and talent evaluation, as opposed to years past it seems (Looking at you Dorsey, Freddie, and Hue). But I really wanted to get a deeper understanding of what he was bringing to the table, so I did some research, read his quotes, watched his interviews, and gleamed what I could about his expertise and processes. I thought I’d share some of my key takeaways. Paul learned from A’s GM Billy Beane and sabermetrics creator Bill James to challenge accepted trends and the inefficient understanding of sports. Our eyes deceive us when it comes to talent, we have inherent biases and an inaccurate understanding of what makes a team good. More specifically he challenges the notion of what makes an exceptionally talented team, and how/when/why you acquire the players that make up that team. What Depo has done in every other sporting franchise that he has been a part of, is to create and test a simple equation for wins. Actually wins added I should say. What can a team do to create wins through a player’s output? In baseball it has been relatively easy historically, more runs scored and less runs allowed = more wins. Over a long season and a large enough dataset you can almost predict these two things before you ever play a game just by looking at your players’ key sabermetrics (within a margin of error of course). Depo and Bill Beane did just that in the early 2000s and revolutionized the game of baseball. This is in my opinion Depo’s bread and better. He simplifies the grand scope of a sport into this easily digestible question. This is probably the question he posed to the Brown’s ownership on his first day. The mark for the A’s? 95 wins. That’s how many it takes to get to the playoffs on average in baseball. In the NFL it’s about 11 wins, and that’s the goal for the Browns. The challenge for Depo back then was quantifying how runs came to be in a game. Was it RBIs? No. Was it Batting Average? Definitely No. Was it Walks? Yes, sort of. It was a combination of putting people on base in any way possible and then hitting them home consistently. Depo valued one stat over all others, OBPS (On Base Percentage Plus Slugging). It didn’t matter how the player got there as long as they put themselves in a place to score and the next person brought them home. The A’s went as far as to seek out laughably unconventional ballplayers as long as they filled this stat column (fat guys, old guys, short guys, slow guys, etc). And they told everyone from the minors up that they needed to walk more as well. The next question we might have at this point, is does a similar stat exist in football, or can we create an equation that produces a valuable football stat like OBPS to baseball? * Well no not really, at least it’s not a totally provable hypothesis as of yet. Notably because there are lot more positions in football and each position is graded on a different scale of course. Although organizations like Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus do try their damndest to find these value stats for each position, nevertheless their methodology may still be flawed. DYAR and DVOA stats are a good jumping off point in this area as well https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods.
*An educated guesser might speculate an indicator similar to OBPS for a team offense is a combination of scoring efficiency and ball control, for defense maybe a combination of turnovers created and red zone stops. But who knows honestly, smarter men than me have probably pondered this for much longer than I have and been paid very well for their thoughts. Paul has indicated in interviews though that he and the Browns front office may have found something similar to this treasured sabermetric in football but he’s very coy and hush-hush regarding tangible football stats the team looks for.
https://youtu.be/CGSDm-xQNlE?t=157 here’s just one example of him discussing draft indicators. In football it’s increasingly more difficult to suss out indicators that player stats correlate with team success. First there's much less data to work with, the NFL has 16 games a year, college even less. The other challenge is that the game is played wholly differently depending on schemes, players, and situation. Think Air Raid vs. Power run. And thus the players in these systems must adapt to their surroundings. Lastly the talent pool is much smaller in football than in baseball, 40 rounds of drafting are more forgiving for finding talent than 7 rounds of course. Which leads to another Depo fact, Playing time and performance at the college level is much more valuable than raw potential and athleticism. He spells this out in Moneyball a lot. The A’s never drafted high school players, contrary to all other MLB teams they despised young five tool ballplayers. In fact they really only drafted college players with significant statistical output and playing time to back the data up. If you look at the Browns’ most recent drafts then you will notice this exact trend being used especially with top draft picks. Take a look: Baker Mayfield: 4 year starter. NCAA record holder & Heisman Winner Denzel Ward: 3 years of play, 2 years starting. All American Nick Chubb: 4 year starter. SEC record holder Jedrick Wills: 3 year starter. All American Harrison Bryant: 3 year starter. All American. Mackey Award Grant Delpit: 3 year starter. 2 x All American, Thorpe Award Jacob Phillips: 3 year starter Donovan Peoples Jones: 3 year starter Outlier: Greedy Williams These players simply produced in college and they produced over multiple years. Depodesta sees a correlation between on field production and future success for sure. Physical traits are always secondary in this regard. I believe Depo values a few positions more than any other on the football field as well. Number one is The Quarterback (I know that’s obvious). They are the hitter in football. They control the offense, the majority of scoring, and the flow of the game. I think that Depo saw something in Baker Mayfield that lit up his talent indicator more than any other college player this decade besides maybe Mahomes and Burrow. He doesn’t just want a game manager; he wants an extra efficient game controller, somebody who puts their team in a position to score on every possible drive (similar to getting on base in baseball). College Baker is a stat nerd’s wet dream. The mixture of total yards, touchdowns, turnover efficiency, and completions is truly a sight to behold. Just take a look at these statistical comparisons before his draft https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018
Top QBASE Projections, 1997-2017
QBASE Players
Philip Rivers 1964 Carson Palmer 1916 Donovan McNabb 1799 Baker Mayfield 1480 Russell Wilson 1288 Peyton Manning 1279 Marcus Mariota 1277 Byron Leftwich 1216 Aaron Rodgers 1216 Ben Roethlisberger 1211 That’s rarified air Baker is put in there, and it was an important indicator for me to jump on his bandwagon early on. Although I will say don’t be totally surprised if the Browns move on from Baker if this year he doesn’t show better production in the second half. Billy Beane and Depo regularly traded or let walk great players if they felt they could find similar efficiency in the market or draft. Eg. Jason Giambi, Ben Grieve, Carlos Pena to name a few. Sidenote: Screw Freddie Kitchens and the rest of the former offensive staff for setting Baker back a year by the way. In my opinion, if we had Stefanski last year then Baker most likely wouldn’t have regressed as sharply as we saw. Another position group he most likely values significantly is the O Line. Without them the offensive efficiency grinds to a halt both throwing the ball and running the ball. Expect lots of money and draft capital to be tied up in these guys every year. Lastly I think on the defensive side he values disruptive players, guys who grind the game to a halt and create offensive opportunities through turnovers. It also gives our "hitter" aka quarterback a chance to score immediately, and damn is our turnover rate good this year. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/opp.htm The 49ers front office built their team around this concept as well last year. Defensive Ends and Cornerbacks come to mind immediately here as positons of importance. I don’t think the team expected Olivier Vernon and Greedy Williams to be out for as many games as they have been which may have thrown a slight wrench in the franchise’s plan sadly. A point hammered home by Depo repeatedly this year is that Everyone in the organization from the top down has to be on the same page when it comes to macro strategies in sports. That includes the owner, GM, scouts, and coaches. Indicated by Depo here: https://youtu.be/JjFYRSikVEk?t=53 Depo expressed that's why he brought in Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski specifically this season. Depo and Haslam explained to them what system they were trying to build for the Browns and they needed everyone on board before signing off on their hires (Dorsey and Hue didn’t buy in totally). Billy Beane realized this organizational view early on and his disciple Paul definitely preaches this as well. Now they have a cavalcade of Ivy League economics majors running an NFL team with the same goal in mind, get more wins through any means possible. In Oakland he was tasked with finding out how to add wins with talent that cost substantially less than his opposition. I mean we’re talking magnitudes less of capital ($40m vs $140m). It was thought impossible to compete with large team payrolls at the time. Baseball’s commissioner even put together a panel of economic experts that flat out told him that professional baseball was broken and that competitiveness relied solely on the amount of money spent on talent. Billy Beane and Depo scoffed at that conclusion and proceeded to drag a bunch of misfits and outcasts to Oakland’s best regular season ever. He also did similar with the Mets ten years later (RA Dickey anyone?). Which brings me to the last and possibly most observable takeaway from the browns strategy this season. Homegrown talent is significantly cheaper than acquired talent and you should use that homegrown talent for as long as possible and for as little money as possible. The Browns have the lowest salary in the league right now and are the only team in the bottom 10 salaries to have 4+ wins. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/ It’s hard to say for certain if Depo is directly responsible for this but it’s safe to assume that he brought a little moneyball swagger to our beloved team. The extensions of key players will be something to watch out for this season and next season as well (Myles is secured, Ward and Baker are next). The A’s were masters of replacing outgoing or expiring talent with cheaper players and regularly fleeced teams with trades that seemed insignificant and stupid at first glance. If the Browns make a trade this year then look for them to add a player with at least two years remaining on their contract and probably someone who isn’t flashy or raw but produces consistently in key categories. It’s hard to tell how much of our success this year so far is due to Depodesta’s overall decision making and influence, or Dorsey’s drafting and player evaluation (mind you we have kept most of the scouting staff from the past 4 years as well). I lean towards the former personally. Really it’s the first time in forever that I’ve felt the team is in good hands and that we are working towards something exceptional with clear goals in mind. I love where the Browns stand right now in the division and I love where they could be in the next few years. I think we finally have a culture and strategy that is set to acquire and utilize talent like our franchise has never seen. Paul Depodesta might be the shadowy puppet master that some people imagine but I think simply he is man that is able to communicate clear and concise goals and make an exceptionally efficient plan on how to achieve them. TLDR. I read Moneyball and had a wet dream about the Browns making the playoffs finally and then losing to New York.
Batting average: A baseball player’s batting average is 0.310. If in a given game he bats four times, what is the probability that he will get a. No hits? b. At most two hits? c. At least two hits? 6.4.8. Standard deck of cards: A card is drawn and replaced four times from a standard deck of 52 cards. Definition. One of the oldest and most universal tools to measure a hitter's success at the plate, batting average is determined by dividing a player's hits by his total at-bats for a number ... Batting Average (AVG or BA) This one is pretty easy. Batting average (BA) is calculated by taking a player’s total hits and dividing them by at bats. The above box score would represent a player ... By accumulating the expected outcomes of each batted ball with actual strikeouts, walks and hit by pitches, Expected Batting Average (xBA), Expected Slugging (xSLG), and (most importantly) Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) tell the story of a player's season based on quality of and amount of contact, not outcomes. Batting average in finance measures an investment manager's ability to meet or beat an index. A batting average of 50% is a minimum for investment success. Education Batting average = (Number of hits)/(Number of official at bats) Batting average = (24)/(64) Batting average = 0.375 Here, the answer is already rounded to 3 decimals places. Ty cobb, one of the greatest at bats, has a record of 0.366 Example #4: A player hits safely 10 times. How the average is represented? The baseball batting average is represented as three decimal places such as 0.003 and is pronounced as '300', as if it were multiplied by 1000. The higher this average or closer the average is to '1' (1000), the better the player hits. It has been used to gauge the batman's relative skills since the 18th century. Calculating Batting Averages. A player's batting average is the percentage of hits he achieves in relation to at bats, with walks not counted in the calculation. To calculate a batting average, the number of hits is divided by the number of official at-bats. For example, if a player gets 14 hits out of 45 times at bat, that player's batting average ... The three numbers mean batting average/On Base Percentage OBP/Slugging Percentage. In order to get a player's average, you have to divide the player's hits by his at-bats. For the OBP is more complicated because you have to add the Hits+Walks+Hit by Pitch and divide that result by the sum of At-bats+Walks+Hit by Pitch+Sacrifice Flies. A batting average is simply the number of hits a player has divided by the number of at-bats he has had during the season, according to The Internet Hitting Coach. The simplest way to calculate...
Math for Kids - Baseball Batting Average - YouTube
Math for Kids - Baseball Batting Average by www.guruparents.comIf your child likes baseball, the math behind batting average is a great thing to teach them, ... This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue. Watch Queue Queue Taking a look at what two of the most common offensive baseball stats are, how to calculate them, and what they mean.Part 2: Comparing Batting Average and On... Just one more dying quail a week. I explain how it differs from batters to pitchers (with a brief explainer of Batting Average vs Batting Average Against), and what the three main factors of BABIP are. For more in depth reading on ... Do you love baseball stats? Or are you new to baseball statistics? In this clip, Brig and Brad talk batting average; how it's calculated, and what it means. ... Today we get into batting statistics, covering a basic slash line: Batting Average, On-base Percentage, Slugging, OPS, and OPS+ (ohhh we're getting fancy wit...
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