What are the best-paid football prediction site tips?
Football tips are those choices that sports analysts and sports gamblers come up with concerning the results of that particular weeks' games. There are many factors which are considered to come up with the different conclusions - past performance, weather, the venue of the game, injuries of the different players, etc. The sports handicappers make their predictions based on whether the team will cover a particular 'spread. '📷 This 'spread' usually refers to the vacillating points which the bookmakers assign to a favorite of a particular game. This will balance out the money handle for every game played which will also result in well-balanced book results. This will ensure that earnings are optimized. The bookmakers will also give out Asian champions league tips on the favored teams which will ensure a balance of the bets made on both sides and will increase the chances of profitability. Once the sports handicappers reveal their football pundits predictions for today they can also make over and under selections. Football tips can be found in many websites online which offers either free or paid for information services. The free services offered both online or on football TV programs, however only offer the most basic of the selections and sometimes they are lacking in benefits, sometimes the information has no value at all. It is the paid football tips which offer and provides the more detailed, if not complete, an analysis that would justify the selections. If the bettor wants to get the updated information they should go for a paid website. In this way, they can get information weekly, monthly and for the whole year. The information is usually sent through the email. This is the web site's way of developing a trusting relationship with their clients. With the information that will benefit the bettor and giving them more profits, the client would hesitate to transfer to another site. It is very important to look for that football tips site that is trusted by many. Sports taping and handicapping is a growing industry that has made things more interesting for sports bettors. They have to guarantee the information they give out is valuable. Generally speaking, football tips information is based on the point spread which is determined by the money flows in the sports betting. These tips can either be over or the under for each of the games played. Information given to the clients online is always changing for there are many factors which can affect the statistics. Verified soccer tips counted as best paid football prediction site of the year. Web: http://www.verifiedsoccertips.com/
BeerSheets 2020-09-07 (Final update! Good luck everybody!)
So the site that hosts BeerSheets is down again. Apparently you guys really like them. Click here for some alternatives. https://twitter.com/BeerSheets/status/1303488425933369347?s=20 With fantasy season ramping up the amazing folks at 4for4 are making it even more enticing to use their awesome site; anyone who uses the coupon code BEERSHEETS will get 25% off and be entered into a drawing for one of 25 4for4 t-shirts. Anyone who used the coupon code up to this point has already been entered. No purchase is necessary; if you do not want to make a purchase you can e-mail [email protected] for an entry. BEERSHEETS REQUEST FORM Welcome to BeerSheets! Note that since things have just opened up please submit a request for your sheet and I'll try to process things over the next few days so folks have their first sheet. After that expect weekly updates through preseason. If you have any questions, the best way to reach me is via a DM to @BeerSheets on Twitter. I can also respond here on Reddit but it's more difficult to keep track of conversations. LIKE MY SHEETS? PLEASE CONSIDER DONATING TO HELP INSPIRE KIDS TO BUILD ROBOTS! What is this? These are cheat sheets intended to help players in both snake draft and auction drafts. It uses a combination of value based drafting combined with a few of my own calculations to establish player value, positional scarcity, auction value, and tiers. How do I get my sheet? Click on the helpful link at the top of the post. It will direct you to a form that you can fill out. If your sheet is one of the previously generated formats it will automatically link to it, otherwise a request for a custom sheet will automatically be generated. Custom sheets are uploaded every day (often multiple times a day). What's new this year?
I redid the entire back end in Python... which meant I had to learn Python. Basically this allows me to vastly speed up the update process and should reduce the time delay between when sheets are requested and when they're processed.
I've reconfigured the entire sheet to improve readability. The color scheme was changed to be easier for those who are color blind, the ECR column was reformatted to make it easier to read, and I've added color coding to show where there's a significant difference between APD and ECR.
The value section has been changed to show the floor, ceiling, and average projection for each player. This should allow you to have a better idea of what the spread of player projections are.
I removed the historical performance column. It took up a massive amount of computational time.
I dropped the kicker section to make DST more useful. Now for DSTs you can see what the first four weeks are.
We're partnering with our good friends at 4for4 to help offset some of the server costs! If you subscribe to 4for4 with the coupon code BEERSHEETS we'll get a bit of money as an affiliate and you get 25% off. I've been using 4for4 for quite some time and I love their site, so this was a logical way to mitigate some of our expenses.
What's not new? We're still raising funds for the robotics team! The GoFundMe page is up and your generosity is sincerely appreciated! If the COVID-19 pandemic cancels the season the funds will go to another worthy cause such as STEM outreach charities or a local food bank. What are the calculations based on? I use as many projections as I can find to establish a range of projected values for each player. I use a Value Based Drafting approach to calculate the player value for each projection, and then average those values to get a final number. The standard deviation of those value projections are used to determine tiers. A key component of value based drafting is establishing the baseline player, which I set based on the "player-games" method. Essentially what I do is look at how many games on average each ranked player (RB1, RB2, etc) played the following year, and how many games are needed (#Teams x #Positions x 16 Weeks). The number of players needed to produce enough games to reach the desired quantity is the baseline. The original article is gone but pattertjdoes a great job of covering things here. Auction values are calculated using this method. As part of our partnership with 4for4 we're using their rankings for the DST, as well as their unique Strength of Schedule estimations to determine which opponents will be easier or harder. 4for4 offers this capability for every position and is one of my favorite features. What do the columns mean? Player Name: The name of the player. TM/BW: The player's team and bye week. ECR: The player's Expert Consensus Ranking based on FantasyPros, formatted in a "round|pick" format so that you can also use it to judge ADP. In general ADP and ranking is closely correlated, and players with no formatting are taken in the same round as their ranking. Values in blue mean the ADP is more than a round before the rank. Values in orange mean the ADP is more than a round after the rank. These ADP predictions do not apply to 2QB leagues! F, VAL, C: Player value in terms of Floor, Mean, and Ceiling. The average value of multiple projections relative to a baseline player (numbers shown in the title bar). Floor and Ceiling are the average value with the standard deviation of the projection either subtracted or added. In auction sheets these values are converted to dollar amounts. PS: Positional Scarcity. The percentage of player value remaining in that position once that player (and all players above him) are drafted. This is the means by which you can determine the opportunity cost of selecting one position over another. What does the shading mean? The alternating white and gray shading represents different tiers of player projections based on the distribution of values from the multiple sources I use. Tiers are groups of players whose projections overlap as a result of the mean and standard deviation of their particular data set. Individual projections are notoriously unreliable (the top experts are lucky to be right 60% of the time), so players who are shaded the same should be considered roughly comparable in value. Will you share the original data file? Nope. Can you do a sheet for my 13 player 2QB/1RB/3W2FLX/TE/DST/2PK league with 0.314 PPR and 9 PPTD? Fill out the form at the top of the post to request a custom sheet. I will try to get it uploaded a week before your draft. If your settings aren't in the drop-down menus click the 'Show Custom Ranges' checkmark above the Teams value. Can you do points per first down or premium TE scoring? Since I'm converting everything over the Python, and dealing with over half a million requests each year, I won't be able to do anything outside of the sheet this time. I'm sorry, but my goal in the long run is to add that capability back in. This is awesome! These sheets help me win my league last year, and you deserve a tip! How can I throw money at you? My workload has forced me to cut down on a lot, so just like last year I am raising funds for a high school robotics program that I mentor. Your dollars will directly help inspire students to become scientists and engineers and also help them build a 160 pound robot. Please click here if you're interested in helping, every dollar directly goes towards STEM outreach. Will you do IDP? I would like to, but it's difficult. The problem with IDP is that there aren't a lot of projections and the tiers become massive. Will you do Dynasty? This method doesn't work for dynasty, as the projections are only for one year. What's the best way to use this? Which categories should I pay attention to the most? The real meat of the sheet is value and positional scarcity. What I like to do is start off with value and see which players are available within each position that have similar value. I look at tier to get a sense of how many players are "clumped" together and see if I can't get value later on. It should be noted that the tiers are not absolute; comparing the last player of one tier to the first player of the tier below him is perfectly reasonable. Look at the floor and ceiling information to get a better sense of an individual player's expectations. Positional scarcity shows how much value is remaining in each position after a player is taken. In general you want the player with the lower PS, because there's less value remaining once that player is gone. This will also give you a sense of just how much value an individual player takes from the "pool" of points for each skill. Rankings are a great way to determine when a player should be drafted, when that player is actually being drafted, and also differentiating between players in a tier. They're a good way to pick between players who share a tier once I've decided which skill position I want to draft. It should be noted that rankings are limited to contemporary scoring and rosters; the more nonstandard your league the less useful the rankings may be. What's this about being able to highlight cells dynamically? The Excel sheets have a feature to automatically shade rows based on a value placed on the column to the left of the player's name (the space in between the blocks). If you put a 'y' there the row is highlighted green, 'n' will highlight the row red, 'x' will highlight the row black, and anything else (I use a number) will highlight the row yellow. You can use this to select which players you do and do not want, cross out players that are already drafted, and highlight the players you have on your team. Who else should I check out? Let me know! I'm not sure who's back this year, so please message me or reply in the comments and I'll be sure to add them.
Daruuk is awesome and you should definitely check out his Draft Slayer.
NukishPhilosophy runs Fantasy Football Data Pros, a website which teaches you Python through fantasy football. I purchased the course and found it to be incredibly helpful.
Prayes does awesome work with his expert ranking tiers.
ElBoberto has a wonderful auction spreadsheet worth checking out.
CanadianSandGoggles continues his tradition of being awesome with an easily referenced sheet.
JuiceBoxOne is doing great work with his 'Abusing Draft Rankings' sheets.
If you're not following keepfast then you're missing out on some amazing newsletters.
BeerSheets 2020-09-04 (Do Not Draft Adrian Peterson Edition)
With fantasy season ramping up the amazing folks at 4for4 are making it even more enticing to use their awesome site; anyone who uses the coupon code BEERSHEETS will get 25% off and be entered into a drawing for one of 25 4for4 t-shirts. Anyone who used the coupon code up to this point has already been entered. No purchase is necessary; if you do not want to make a purchase you can e-mail [email protected] for an entry. BEERSHEETS REQUEST FORM Welcome to BeerSheets! Note that since things have just opened up please submit a request for your sheet and I'll try to process things over the next few days so folks have their first sheet. After that expect weekly updates through preseason. If you have any questions, the best way to reach me is via a DM to @BeerSheets on Twitter. I can also respond here on Reddit but it's more difficult to keep track of conversations. LIKE MY SHEETS? PLEASE CONSIDER DONATING TO HELP INSPIRE KIDS TO BUILD ROBOTS! What is this? These are cheat sheets intended to help players in both snake draft and auction drafts. It uses a combination of value based drafting combined with a few of my own calculations to establish player value, positional scarcity, auction value, and tiers. How do I get my sheet? Click on the helpful link at the top of the post. It will direct you to a form that you can fill out. If your sheet is one of the previously generated formats it will automatically link to it, otherwise a request for a custom sheet will automatically be generated. Custom sheets are uploaded every day (often multiple times a day). What's new this year?
I redid the entire back end in Python... which meant I had to learn Python. Basically this allows me to vastly speed up the update process and should reduce the time delay between when sheets are requested and when they're processed.
I've reconfigured the entire sheet to improve readability. The color scheme was changed to be easier for those who are color blind, the ECR column was reformatted to make it easier to read, and I've added color coding to show where there's a significant difference between APD and ECR.
The value section has been changed to show the floor, ceiling, and average projection for each player. This should allow you to have a better idea of what the spread of player projections are.
I removed the historical performance column. It took up a massive amount of computational time.
I dropped the kicker section to make DST more useful. Now for DSTs you can see what the first four weeks are.
We're partnering with our good friends at 4for4 to help offset some of the server costs! If you subscribe to 4for4 with the coupon code BEERSHEETS we'll get a bit of money as an affiliate and you get 25% off. I've been using 4for4 for quite some time and I love their site, so this was a logical way to mitigate some of our expenses.
What's not new? We're still raising funds for the robotics team! The GoFundMe page is up and your generosity is sincerely appreciated! If the COVID-19 pandemic cancels the season the funds will go to another worthy cause such as STEM outreach charities or a local food bank. What are the calculations based on? I use as many projections as I can find to establish a range of projected values for each player. I use a Value Based Drafting approach to calculate the player value for each projection, and then average those values to get a final number. The standard deviation of those value projections are used to determine tiers. A key component of value based drafting is establishing the baseline player, which I set based on the "player-games" method. Essentially what I do is look at how many games on average each ranked player (RB1, RB2, etc) played the following year, and how many games are needed (#Teams x #Positions x 16 Weeks). The number of players needed to produce enough games to reach the desired quantity is the baseline. The original article is gone but pattertjdoes a great job of covering things here. Auction values are calculated using this method. As part of our partnership with 4for4 we're using their rankings for the DST, as well as their unique Strength of Schedule estimations to determine which opponents will be easier or harder. 4for4 offers this capability for every position and is one of my favorite features. What do the columns mean? Player Name: The name of the player. TM/BW: The player's team and bye week. ECR: The player's Expert Consensus Ranking based on FantasyPros, formatted in a "round|pick" format so that you can also use it to judge ADP. In general ADP and ranking is closely correlated, and players with no formatting are taken in the same round as their ranking. Values in blue mean the ADP is more than a round before the rank. Values in orange mean the ADP is more than a round after the rank. These ADP predictions do not apply to 2QB leagues! F, VAL, C: Player value in terms of Floor, Mean, and Ceiling. The average value of multiple projections relative to a baseline player (numbers shown in the title bar). Floor and Ceiling are the average value with the standard deviation of the projection either subtracted or added. In auction sheets these values are converted to dollar amounts. PS: Positional Scarcity. The percentage of player value remaining in that position once that player (and all players above him) are drafted. This is the means by which you can determine the opportunity cost of selecting one position over another. What does the shading mean? The alternating white and gray shading represents different tiers of player projections based on the distribution of values from the multiple sources I use. Tiers are groups of players whose projections overlap as a result of the mean and standard deviation of their particular data set. Individual projections are notoriously unreliable (the top experts are lucky to be right 60% of the time), so players who are shaded the same should be considered roughly comparable in value. Will you share the original data file? Nope. Can you do a sheet for my 13 player 2QB/1RB/3W2FLX/TE/DST/2PK league with 0.314 PPR and 9 PPTD? Fill out the form at the top of the post to request a custom sheet. I will try to get it uploaded a week before your draft. If your settings aren't in the drop-down menus click the 'Show Custom Ranges' checkmark above the Teams value. Can you do points per first down or premium TE scoring? Since I'm converting everything over the Python, and dealing with over half a million requests each year, I won't be able to do anything outside of the sheet this time. I'm sorry, but my goal in the long run is to add that capability back in. This is awesome! These sheets help me win my league last year, and you deserve a tip! How can I throw money at you? My workload has forced me to cut down on a lot, so just like last year I am raising funds for a high school robotics program that I mentor. Your dollars will directly help inspire students to become scientists and engineers and also help them build a 160 pound robot. Please click here if you're interested in helping, every dollar directly goes towards STEM outreach. Will you do IDP? I would like to, but it's difficult. The problem with IDP is that there aren't a lot of projections and the tiers become massive. Will you do Dynasty? This method doesn't work for dynasty, as the projections are only for one year. What's the best way to use this? Which categories should I pay attention to the most? The real meat of the sheet is value and positional scarcity. What I like to do is start off with value and see which players are available within each position that have similar value. I look at tier to get a sense of how many players are "clumped" together and see if I can't get value later on. It should be noted that the tiers are not absolute; comparing the last player of one tier to the first player of the tier below him is perfectly reasonable. Look at the floor and ceiling information to get a better sense of an individual player's expectations. Positional scarcity shows how much value is remaining in each position after a player is taken. In general you want the player with the lower PS, because there's less value remaining once that player is gone. This will also give you a sense of just how much value an individual player takes from the "pool" of points for each skill. Rankings are a great way to determine when a player should be drafted, when that player is actually being drafted, and also differentiating between players in a tier. They're a good way to pick between players who share a tier once I've decided which skill position I want to draft. It should be noted that rankings are limited to contemporary scoring and rosters; the more nonstandard your league the less useful the rankings may be. What's this about being able to highlight cells dynamically? The Excel sheets have a feature to automatically shade rows based on a value placed on the column to the left of the player's name (the space in between the blocks). If you put a 'y' there the row is highlighted green, 'n' will highlight the row red, 'x' will highlight the row black, and anything else (I use a number) will highlight the row yellow. You can use this to select which players you do and do not want, cross out players that are already drafted, and highlight the players you have on your team. Who else should I check out? Let me know! I'm not sure who's back this year, so please message me or reply in the comments and I'll be sure to add them.
Daruuk is awesome and you should definitely check out his Draft Slayer.
NukishPhilosophy runs Fantasy Football Data Pros, a website which teaches you Python through fantasy football. I purchased the course and found it to be incredibly helpful.
Prayes does awesome work with his expert ranking tiers.
ElBoberto has a wonderful auction spreadsheet worth checking out.
CanadianSandGoggles continues his tradition of being awesome with an easily referenced sheet.
JuiceBoxOne is doing great work with his 'Abusing Draft Rankings' sheets.
If you're not following keepfast then you're missing out on some amazing newsletters.
[Game Preview] Week 10 - Philadelphia Eagles(3-4-1) @ New York Giants (2-5)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1) vs New York Giants (2-7)
I don’t know what to say about the NFC East Matchups. The entire division is struggling with major injuries to key players and the division is by far the worst in the NFL, but the divisional games have all been competitive with the last matchup between these two being decided by a single point. The Eagles will show up to this matchup a little bit healthier especially in weapons for Carson who will have Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, Alshon Jeffrey and Jalen Raegor for this matchup, all of whom were out last game. Carson was able to throw for 300+ yards last game, he should be able to build on that number with an added number of weapons. The Giants were able to put up points last week vs the Football Team and pull out their second W of the season. The Eagles will need to pressure Jones and force him into turning the ball over like the first matchup and the Eagles need to be able to take advantage of those turnovers. Carson said he reviewed his turnovers in the first half of the season and said he knows he needs to protect the ball better, he needs to prove it this week coming off the bye. If Carson protects the football, the Eagles should be able to move the ball against the bewildered Giants and cruise to an easy win, but if he continues to turn the ball over like the first half, I predict another sloppy NFCE matchup that goes down to the wire. Go Birds!
FOX will broadcast Sunday’s game to a regional audience. Kevin Kugler will handle the play-by-play duties and Chris Spielman will provide analysis. Laura Okmin will report from the sidelines.
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
WIP-FM
94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA
WCTO-FM
96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey
WENJ-FM
97.3 FM
Levittown, PA
WBCB-AM
1490 AM
Northumberland, PA
WEGH-FM
107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA
WPPA-AM
1360 AM
Reading, PA
WEEU-AM
830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
WEJL-FM
96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WEJL-AM
630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WBAX-AM
1240 AM
Williamsport, PA
WBZD-FM
93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE
WDEL-FM/AM
101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA
WSOX-FM
96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
LA MEGA
105.7 FM
Allentown, PA
WSAN
1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ
WIBG
1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Giants Radio
Giants Radio Bob Papa season to handle play-by-play duties for the broadcast. Former Giant Carl Banks will provide color and analysis during the game and former Giant Howard Coss will report from the sidelines.
National Radio
Sports USA will broadcast the game nationally with Josh Appel handling the play by play and Brandon Noble will provide analysis.
October 15th, 1933 at the Polo Grounds in Upper Manhattan, New York, NY. New York Giants 56 - Philadelphia Eagles 0
Points Leader
The New York Giants lead the Philadelphia Eagles (3449-3389)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 8-1 vs. the New York Giants
Joe Judge: 0-1 vs. the Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs. Joe Judge: Pederson leads 1-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Giants: 7-1
Daniel Jones: Against Eagles: 0-2
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Daniel Jones: Wentz leads 2-0.
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead the Giants: 12-6
Record @ MetLife Stadium: Eagles lead the Giants: 7-2
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 19 - Giants No. 28
Record
Eagles: 3-4-1
Giants: 2-7
Last Meeting
Thursday, October 22, 2020
Eagles 22 - Giants 21
The Eagles faced off against the division rival Giants who were coming off their first win of the season and were looking for a 2nd for first year coach Joe Judge. The Eagles have moved to 2-4-1 on the season after rallying to defeat the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football, 22-21. After New York gave its best punch of the night a 97-yard touchdown drive headlined by Daniel Jones to go up 21-10 with just over six minutes to play, Philadelphia scored 12 unanswered points to earn the win. Carson Wentz led a 71-yard touchdown drive to give the Eagles the lead with just 40 seconds to play after connecting with running back Boston Scott on an 18-yard reception. Along with the comeback, he finished his night with 359 yards passing, two touchdowns and one interception while completing passes to eight different Eagles receivers. He also ran for 15 yards and a touchdown. As for the Giants, they mustered just 325 yards of offense and struggle to protect Daniel Jones throughout the contest.
Wentz led to his fourth straight must-win game and the team finished an elimination game without seven starters on offense. Already missing three starting wide receivers for the fourth straight game, the Eagles also began the game without Pro Bowl tight end Zach Ertz and right tackle Lane Johnson. Then they lost running back Miles Sanders and three-time Pro Bowl right guard Brandon Brooks in the first half. But Scott, Josh Perkins, Greg Ward, Deontay Burnett and Robert Davis combined for 16 catches on 25 targets, 225 yards receiving, 54 yards rushing and four TDs. The five players were cut a combined eight times by four teams since Aug. 31. Carson Wentz threw for 289 yards, including a 24-yard TD pass to Perkins, who was promoted from the practice squad on Nov. 30. It was the Eagles’ 7th straight win vs the Giants and clinched the NFCE. Giants coach Pat Shurmur was fired the following Monday.
Giants - For the second time in four weeks, New York beat Washington on Sunday, holding on for a 23-20 victory at FedEx Field. It was another close win for the Giants over their NFC East rival, after earning a 20-19 victory in the first meeting between the two teams in Week 6. New York built a 17-point lead by halftime, and although Washington made things interesting in the second half, it wasn't enough to come back against the Giants, who relied on early success from their offense and big plays from their defense.
Connections
Eagles Special assistant to the general manager Connor Barwin played 1 season with the Giants in 2018.
Giants coach Joe Judge is from Philadelphia, PA.
Giants Defensive Backs coach Jerome Henderson played one season for the Eagles in 1995.
Giants RB Dion Lewis was drafted by the Eagles in the 5th round of the 2011 draft and played 2 seasons for them before being traded to the Browns
Giants WR Golden Tate played half a season with the Eagles in 2018 after being traded by the Lions.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles
Giants
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lovato (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
SS Malcom Jenkings (1st Alt)
OT Lane Johnson (1st Alt
General
Referee: Clay Martin
The Eagles have won 8 consecutive games against the Giants (in-cluding the 22-21 victory at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 7), as well as 12 of the previous 13 games in the series. Philadelphia is 89-86-2 (.508) all-time vs. N.Y. Giants (since 1933).
Since being promoted to the Eagles’ active roster in Week 4, Tra-vis Fulgham ranks 5th among NFL WRs with 87.0 receiving yards per game, trailing only Davante Adams (120.8), DK Metcalf (98.2), Julio Jones (91.4) and Stefon Diggs (87.5) (min. 4 games).
Brandon Graham, who ranks 4th on the Eagles’ all-time sacks list with 58.0 career sacks, is tied for the 4th-most sacks (7.0 - 4.0 in his last 3 games) in the NFL this season, behind Aaron Donald(9.0), Myles Garrett (9.0) and Trey Hendrickson (7.5).
The Eagles defense ranks 3rd in the NFL in sacks (28.0), trailing only Pittsburgh (32.0) and Tampa Bay (29.0).
Additionally, Philadelphia ranks 4th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (209.4) as well as 10th in both total defense (340.1 ypg) and opponent third-down efficiency (39.6%).
Draft Picks
Eagles
Giants
WR Jalen Raegor
OT Andrew Thomas
QB Jalen Hurts
S Xavier McKinney
LB Davion Taylor
OT Matt Peart
S K’Von Wallace
CB Darney Holmes
OT Jack Driscoll
G Shane Lemieux
WR John Hightower
LB Cam Brown
LB Shaun Bradley
LB Carter Coughlin
WR Quez Watkins
T.J. Brunson
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
CB Chris Williamson
LB/DE Casey Toohill
LB Tae Crowder
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles
Giants
S Will Parks
CB James Bradberry
DT Javon Hargrave
LB Blake Martinez
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman
TE Levine Toilolo
CB Darius Slay
LB Kyler Fackell
OT Cameron Fleming
SS Nate Ebner
QB Colt McCoy
RB Dion Lewis
DB Dravon Askew-Henry
DT Austin Johnson
TE Eric Tomlinson
LS Casey Kreiter
CB Logan Ryan
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles
Giants
S Malcom Jenkins
QB Eli Manning
CB Ronald Darby
S Michael Thomas
RB Jordan Howard
WR Cody Latimer
WR Nelson Agholor
LB Deone Buccanon
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai
OL Mike Remmers
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill
CB Antonio Hamilton
RB Darren Sproles
DT Timmy Jernigan
LB Nigel Bradham
Milestones
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (109) needs 3 passing TDs to move up to 4th on the Eagles all-time passing yards list moving ahead of QB Norm Snead.
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (987) needs 13 yards for 1000 career rushing yards.
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (50.5) needs 4 sacks to move up to 5th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (28.5) needs 1 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DT Jerome Brown
Giants QB Daniel Jones (4905) needs 95 passing yards for 5000 career passing yards.
Stats to Know
Shane Lemieux’s Education
Rookie OG Shane Lemieux has facial hair. Fletcher Cox has a mustache. And that’s about as much as RG Shane Lemieux will be able to mirror DT Fletcher Cox. Due to Will Hernandez’s injury, Monsieur Lemieux is in at Guard and this week will prove challenging for him, to say the least. According to PFF, the greatest NFL player evaluation service in the history of evaluation services, not a single other OLman with appreciable snaps has offered a lower Pass Block grade than him, at 12.1. For him to achieve that, while still only allowing 8 pressures (over 2 weeks: 5 & 3 pressures), is impressive. To do that you have to be monumentally bad and he can’t afford that sort of game against the Eagles’ Defensive Line.
Matchups to Watch
Carson Wentz vs. Competency
The biggest issue facing the Eagles in the short term isn't the injuries - it is the QB. That's my QB, a guy I've long defended and still believe in, but BAE has me wavering. The simple fact is Carson Wentz is a bottom 3 QB in the NFL this year and that's his fault. From accuracy, to turnovers, to shit pocket management, etc, Wentz has been trailer trash in 2020 aside from like 2, maybe 3 games. Yes, the roster has been decimated. Yes, coaching has been wildly unimpressive. However, Wentz can't take care of business irrespective of the situation around him. Backup receivers don't cause inaccurate passes. Backup offensive linemen don't make him hold onto the ball too long to where he gets hit and fumbles. No one is making him skip back and forth over the line of self-destruction and aggression. Wentz is doing that on his own. He obviously isn't taking his own advice when he says he has to take care of the ball and whatever coaching points are given to him during the week are going in one ear and out of the other. He's a 5th year pro playing worse than his rookie year. That's on him. There needs to be a come to Jesus moment with Wentz where he gets right. The Eagles can be competitive in every game they play when the QB is playing at a competent - forget high - level. Carson Wentz has shown all of us this year that his ceiling is still quite high at its peaks: the first game against the Giants on their last two drives. He's also shown his league-worst floor: SNF against Dallas. Long term and short term, Wentz must raise his floor. He doesn't need to be a hero and save the team from their sins each and every play like he seemingly tries to. FEW QBs CAN. And most don't. Steady play from him will go a long way. Right now, the coaches are calling an offensive game plan that is weak and scared of their QB. Why would they do anything different? How can anyone trust this guy not to continue to blow games? The fact is the Eagles will win this game with a clean game from their QB. It's just a crapshoot if he does.
Eagles Offensive Line vs. Giants Army of Defensive Tackles
The Giants have a really good group of interior defensive lineman and we would know since they kicked our ass in the first matchup this season. The Eagles were absent Isaac Seumalo and Brandon Brooks in that one and it showed. There is a possibility we'll have Seumalo back for this one and that would be a huge addition to an overmatched offensive line. I don't want to belittle the work of the Eagles backups and Jeff Stoutland especially since they've done an admiral job given all of the injuries; it's just undeniable the Eagles are overmatched in the trenches here, especially on the interior. Every healthy body helps. As we've seen with Wentz this year, he is a mess under pressure and navigating a muddy pocket. He'll still likely have these issues on Sunday but hopefully less so than the first matchup. The return of Seumalo and possibly Lane Johnson will also go a long way to helping the run game provide any sort of production for the offense. The Eagles prefer winning with their OL and DL; this year has been a struggle for the OL but not a complete disaster that we expected. We just need the talent to return in order to improve.
Eagles Weapons vs Giants Secondary
Perhaps I was more bearish on the Giants secondary outside of Bradberry in the first match up; I still don't think it is a very good unit, but the defensive side of the ball for the Giants is far from the biggest issue with this team. The Eagles will have Miles Sanders, Jalen Reagor, and Dallas Goedert for this game when all three were unavailable in the first contest. All three pair well with Giant-killer Boston Scott. The Eagles have enough weapons to really attack the Giants defense if they get quality play out of their QB. This Giants defense still struggles in coverage outside of Bradberry, especially in the middle of the field, which leads to a favorable outlook for Goedert. A functioning offense will take a lot of pressure off the defense and put the Eagles in the rare position of having a favorable game script.
Eagles Defensive Line vs Giants Offensive Line
This is always something to monitor for the Eagles as they only have one good cover guy on defense in Darius Slay. The Eagles struggle to match up against defenses in man coverage because they don't have the personnel to cover anyone other than Darius Slay. They struggle in zone as they don't have smart, instinctive players with awareness in zone. The LBs and Safeties are all bad in coverage. Competent offenses and QBs always expose this weakness for the Eagles and that won't change until the talent and coaching changes on the defense. This week the Eagles have another favorable matchup for their defense in Daniel Jones. Jones is a one read, timing QB, that struggles at the one thing he is supposed to be good at. Like Wentz, he is a turnover machine and holds his offense back mightily. The only difference between the two is Jones was at no point considered a top 10 QB. Even without Barkley and possibly Golden Tate, the Giants have more than enough weapons to cook the Eagles defense. Slay played a really good game in their first matchup locking down Slayton, but we saw Sterling Shepard obliterate Jalen Mills. Shepard is a good receiver, so it wasn't a high bar for him to clear in that matchup, but they can make you pay. The Eagles defensive MVP in that contest was Evan Engram; he had a tipped pass that led to an Eagles INT and a killer drop that likely would have ended the game, preventing the comeback. For all of the Giants struggles, the Eagles coverage unit simply doesn't offer enough resistance against the Giants weapons. It comes down to how much disruption the Eagles defensive line can cause, which is par for the course. The Giants offensive line has been an absolute mess this season but is coming off a great game against the Redskins vaunted defensive front. Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox continue to play at high levels. Josh Sweat has been pretty good this year. Derek Barnett is the same as usual. Lastly, Malik Jackson will return to the line up and he has been an under-the-radar stud for the Eagles this year. They also need to have their marquee free agent acquisition, Javon Hargrave, make an impact. They'll need all of these guys to play well to ensure they keep the Giants weapons in line since we know the Eagles secondary struggles stopping nosebleeds.
BeerSheets 2020-09-02 (Nobody Likes Leonard Edition)
With fantasy season ramping up the amazing folks at 4for4 are making it even more enticing to use their awesome site; anyone who uses the coupon code BEERSHEETS will get 25% off and be entered into a drawing for one of 25 4for4 t-shirts. Anyone who used the coupon code up to this point has already been entered. No purchase is necessary; if you do not want to make a purchase you can e-mail [email protected] for an entry. BEERSHEETS REQUEST FORM Welcome to BeerSheets! Note that since things have just opened up please submit a request for your sheet and I'll try to process things over the next few days so folks have their first sheet. After that expect weekly updates through preseason. If you have any questions, the best way to reach me is via a DM to @BeerSheets on Twitter. I can also respond here on Reddit but it's more difficult to keep track of conversations. LIKE MY SHEETS? PLEASE CONSIDER DONATING TO HELP INSPIRE KIDS TO BUILD ROBOTS! What is this? These are cheat sheets intended to help players in both snake draft and auction drafts. It uses a combination of value based drafting combined with a few of my own calculations to establish player value, positional scarcity, auction value, and tiers. How do I get my sheet? Click on the helpful link at the top of the post. It will direct you to a form that you can fill out. If your sheet is one of the previously generated formats it will automatically link to it, otherwise a request for a custom sheet will automatically be generated. Custom sheets are uploaded every day (often multiple times a day). What's new this year?
I redid the entire back end in Python... which meant I had to learn Python. Basically this allows me to vastly speed up the update process and should reduce the time delay between when sheets are requested and when they're processed.
I've reconfigured the entire sheet to improve readability. The color scheme was changed to be easier for those who are color blind, the ECR column was reformatted to make it easier to read, and I've added color coding to show where there's a significant difference between APD and ECR.
The value section has been changed to show the floor, ceiling, and average projection for each player. This should allow you to have a better idea of what the spread of player projections are.
I removed the historical performance column. It took up a massive amount of computational time.
I dropped the kicker section to make DST more useful. Now for DSTs you can see what the first four weeks are.
We're partnering with our good friends at 4for4 to help offset some of the server costs! If you subscribe to 4for4 with the coupon code BEERSHEETS we'll get a bit of money as an affiliate and you get 25% off. I've been using 4for4 for quite some time and I love their site, so this was a logical way to mitigate some of our expenses.
What's not new? We're still raising funds for the robotics team! The GoFundMe page is up and your generosity is sincerely appreciated! If the COVID-19 pandemic cancels the season the funds will go to another worthy cause such as STEM outreach charities or a local food bank. What are the calculations based on? I use as many projections as I can find to establish a range of projected values for each player. I use a Value Based Drafting approach to calculate the player value for each projection, and then average those values to get a final number. The standard deviation of those value projections are used to determine tiers. A key component of value based drafting is establishing the baseline player, which I set based on the "player-games" method. Essentially what I do is look at how many games on average each ranked player (RB1, RB2, etc) played the following year, and how many games are needed (#Teams x #Positions x 16 Weeks). The number of players needed to produce enough games to reach the desired quantity is the baseline. The original article is gone but pattertjdoes a great job of covering things here. Auction values are calculated using this method. As part of our partnership with 4for4 we're using their rankings for the DST, as well as their unique Strength of Schedule estimations to determine which opponents will be easier or harder. 4for4 offers this capability for every position and is one of my favorite features. What do the columns mean? Player Name: The name of the player. TM/BW: The player's team and bye week. ECR: The player's Expert Consensus Ranking based on FantasyPros, formatted in a "round|pick" format so that you can also use it to judge ADP. In general ADP and ranking is closely correlated, and players with no formatting are taken in the same round as their ranking. Values in blue mean the ADP is more than a round before the rank. Values in orange mean the ADP is more than a round after the rank. These ADP predictions do not apply to 2QB leagues! F, VAL, C: Player value in terms of Floor, Mean, and Ceiling. The average value of multiple projections relative to a baseline player (numbers shown in the title bar). Floor and Ceiling are the average value with the standard deviation of the projection either subtracted or added. In auction sheets these values are converted to dollar amounts. PS: Positional Scarcity. The percentage of player value remaining in that position once that player (and all players above him) are drafted. This is the means by which you can determine the opportunity cost of selecting one position over another. What does the shading mean? The alternating white and gray shading represents different tiers of player projections based on the distribution of values from the multiple sources I use. Tiers are groups of players whose projections overlap as a result of the mean and standard deviation of their particular data set. Individual projections are notoriously unreliable (the top experts are lucky to be right 60% of the time), so players who are shaded the same should be considered roughly comparable in value. Will you share the original data file? Nope. Can you do a sheet for my 13 player 2QB/1RB/3W2FLX/TE/DST/2PK league with 0.314 PPR and 9 PPTD? Fill out the form at the top of the post to request a custom sheet. I will try to get it uploaded a week before your draft. If your settings aren't in the drop-down menus click the 'Show Custom Ranges' checkmark above the Teams value. Can you do points per first down or premium TE scoring? Since I'm converting everything over the Python, and dealing with over half a million requests each year, I won't be able to do anything outside of the sheet this time. I'm sorry, but my goal in the long run is to add that capability back in. This is awesome! These sheets help me win my league last year, and you deserve a tip! How can I throw money at you? My workload has forced me to cut down on a lot, so just like last year I am raising funds for a high school robotics program that I mentor. Your dollars will directly help inspire students to become scientists and engineers and also help them build a 160 pound robot. Please click here if you're interested in helping, every dollar directly goes towards STEM outreach. Will you do IDP? I would like to, but it's difficult. The problem with IDP is that there aren't a lot of projections and the tiers become massive. Will you do Dynasty? This method doesn't work for dynasty, as the projections are only for one year. What's the best way to use this? Which categories should I pay attention to the most? The real meat of the sheet is value and positional scarcity. What I like to do is start off with value and see which players are available within each position that have similar value. I look at tier to get a sense of how many players are "clumped" together and see if I can't get value later on. It should be noted that the tiers are not absolute; comparing the last player of one tier to the first player of the tier below him is perfectly reasonable. Look at the floor and ceiling information to get a better sense of an individual player's expectations. Positional scarcity shows how much value is remaining in each position after a player is taken. In general you want the player with the lower PS, because there's less value remaining once that player is gone. This will also give you a sense of just how much value an individual player takes from the "pool" of points for each skill. Rankings are a great way to determine when a player should be drafted, when that player is actually being drafted, and also differentiating between players in a tier. They're a good way to pick between players who share a tier once I've decided which skill position I want to draft. It should be noted that rankings are limited to contemporary scoring and rosters; the more nonstandard your league the less useful the rankings may be. What's this about being able to highlight cells dynamically? The Excel sheets have a feature to automatically shade rows based on a value placed on the column to the left of the player's name (the space in between the blocks). If you put a 'y' there the row is highlighted green, 'n' will highlight the row red, 'x' will highlight the row black, and anything else (I use a number) will highlight the row yellow. You can use this to select which players you do and do not want, cross out players that are already drafted, and highlight the players you have on your team. Who else should I check out? Let me know! I'm not sure who's back this year, so please message me or reply in the comments and I'll be sure to add them.
Daruuk is awesome and you should definitely check out his Draft Slayer.
NukishPhilosophy runs Fantasy Football Data Pros, a website which teaches you Python through fantasy football. I purchased the course and found it to be incredibly helpful.
Prayes does awesome work with his expert ranking tiers.
ElBoberto has a wonderful auction spreadsheet worth checking out.
CanadianSandGoggles continues his tradition of being awesome with an easily referenced sheet.
JuiceBoxOne is doing great work with his 'Abusing Draft Rankings' sheets.
If you're not following keepfast then you're missing out on some amazing newsletters.
An Overview of the Main Talking Points on this Sub
Thought it would be good to have everything in one place if people want to come back to it. I made this mostly for beginner's and for the quick links, I'm not sure how much use you will get out of it outside of this but shit does get lost on reddit pretty quick so I hope you find it helpful. It is on you to check the age of posts. Final Update: 11/09 at 19:22 BST. Deadline: Saturday 12th at 11:00 BST. Good luck! Important Info/Posts
With fantasy season ramping up the amazing folks at 4for4 are making it even more enticing to use their awesome site; anyone who uses the coupon code BEERSHEETS will get 25% off and be entered into a drawing for one of 25 4for4 t-shirts. Anyone who used the coupon code up to this point has already been entered. No purchase is necessary; if you do not want to make a purchase you can e-mail [email protected] for an entry. BEERSHEETS REQUEST FORM Welcome to BeerSheets! Note that since things have just opened up please submit a request for your sheet and I'll try to process things over the next few days so folks have their first sheet. After that expect weekly updates through preseason. If you have any questions, the best way to reach me is via a DM to @BeerSheets on Twitter. I can also respond here on Reddit but it's more difficult to keep track of conversations. LIKE MY SHEETS? PLEASE CONSIDER DONATING TO HELP INSPIRE KIDS TO BUILD ROBOTS! What is this? These are cheat sheets intended to help players in both snake draft and auction drafts. It uses a combination of value based drafting combined with a few of my own calculations to establish player value, positional scarcity, auction value, and tiers. How do I get my sheet? Click on the helpful link at the top of the post. It will direct you to a form that you can fill out. If your sheet is one of the previously generated formats it will automatically link to it, otherwise a request for a custom sheet will automatically be generated. Custom sheets are uploaded at least a week before your draft, which is why that field is included. What's new this year?
I redid the entire back end in Python... which meant I had to learn Python. Basically this allows me to vastly speed up the update process and should reduce the time delay between when sheets are requested and when they're processed.
I've reconfigured the entire sheet to improve readability. The color scheme was changed to be easier for those who are color blind, the ECR column was reformatted to make it easier to read, and I've added color coding to show where there's a significant difference between APD and ECR.
The value section has been changed to show the floor, ceiling, and average projection for each player. This should allow you to have a better idea of what the spread of player projections are.
I removed the historical performance column. It took up a massive amount of computational time.
I dropped the kicker section to make DST more useful. Now for DSTs you can see what the first four weeks are.
We're partnering with our good friends at 4for4 to help offset some of the server costs! If you subscribe to 4for4 with the coupon code BEERSHEETS we'll get a bit of money as an affiliate and you get 25% off. I've been using 4for4 for quite some time and I love their site, so this was a logical way to mitigate some of our expenses.
What's not new? We're still raising funds for the robotics team! The GoFundMe page is up and your generosity is sincerely appreciated! If the COVID-19 pandemic cancels the season the funds will go to another worthy cause such as STEM outreach charities or a local food bank. What are the calculations based on? I use as many projections as I can find to establish a range of projected values for each player. I use a Value Based Drafting approach to calculate the player value for each projection, and then average those values to get a final number. The standard deviation of those value projections are used to determine tiers. A key component of value based drafting is establishing the baseline player, which I set based on the "player-games" method. Essentially what I do is look at how many games on average each ranked player (RB1, RB2, etc) played the following year, and how many games are needed (#Teams x #Positions x 16 Weeks). The number of players needed to produce enough games to reach the desired quantity is the baseline. The original article is gone but pattertjdoes a great job of covering things here. Auction values are calculated using this method. As part of our partnership with 4for4 we're using their rankings for the DST, as well as their unique Strength of Schedule estimations to determine which opponents will be easier or harder. 4for4 offers this capability for every position and is one of my favorite features. What do the columns mean? Player Name: The name of the player. TM/BW: The player's team and bye week. ECR: The player's Expert Consensus Ranking based on FantasyPros, formatted in a "round|pick" format so that you can also use it to judge ADP. In general ADP and ranking is closely correlated, and players with no formatting are taken in the same round as their ranking. Values in blue mean the ADP is more than a round before the rank. Values in orange mean the ADP is more than a round after the rank. These ADP predictions do not apply to 2QB leagues! F, VAL, C: Player value in terms of Floor, Mean, and Ceiling. The average value of multiple projections relative to a baseline player (numbers shown in the title bar). Floor and Ceiling are the average value with the standard deviation of the projection either subtracted or added. In auction sheets these values are converted to dollar amounts. PS: Positional Scarcity. The percentage of player value remaining in that position once that player (and all players above him) are drafted. This is the means by which you can determine the opportunity cost of selecting one position over another. What does the shading mean? The alternating white and gray shading represents different tiers of player projections based on the distribution of values from the multiple sources I use. Tiers are groups of players whose projections overlap as a result of the mean and standard deviation of their particular data set. Individual projections are notoriously unreliable (the top experts are lucky to be right 60% of the time), so players who are shaded the same should be considered roughly comparable in value. Will you share the original data file? Nope. Can you do a sheet for my 13 player 2QB/1RB/3W2FLX/TE/DST/2PK league with 0.314 PPR and 9 PPTD? Fill out the form at the top of the post to request a custom sheet. I will try to get it uploaded a week before your draft. If your settings aren't in the drop-down menus click the 'Show Custom Ranges' checkmark above the Teams value. Can you do points per first down or premium TE scoring? Since I'm converting everything over the Python, and dealing with over half a million requests each year, I won't be able to do anything outside of the sheet this time. I'm sorry, but my goal in the long run is to add that capability back in. This is awesome! These sheets help me win my league last year, and you deserve a tip! How can I throw money at you? My workload has forced me to cut down on a lot, so just like last year I am raising funds for a high school robotics program that I mentor. Your dollars will directly help inspire students to become scientists and engineers and also help them build a 160 pound robot. Please click here if you're interested in helping, every dollar directly goes towards STEM outreach. Will you do IDP? I would like to, but it's difficult. The problem with IDP is that there aren't a lot of projections and the tiers become massive. Will you do Dynasty? This method doesn't work for dynasty, as the projections are only for one year. What's the best way to use this? Which categories should I pay attention to the most? The real meat of the sheet is value and positional scarcity. What I like to do is start off with value and see which players are available within each position that have similar value. I look at tier to get a sense of how many players are "clumped" together and see if I can't get value later on. It should be noted that the tiers are not absolute; comparing the last player of one tier to the first player of the tier below him is perfectly reasonable. Look at the floor and ceiling information to get a better sense of an individual player's expectations. Positional scarcity shows how much value is remaining in each position after a player is taken. In general you want the player with the lower PS, because there's less value remaining once that player is gone. This will also give you a sense of just how much value an individual player takes from the "pool" of points for each skill. Rankings are a great way to determine when a player should be drafted, when that player is actually being drafted, and also differentiating between players in a tier. They're a good way to pick between players who share a tier once I've decided which skill position I want to draft. It should be noted that rankings are limited to contemporary scoring and rosters; the more nonstandard your league the less useful the rankings may be. What's this about being able to highlight cells dynamically? The Excel sheets have a feature to automatically shade rows based on a value placed on the column to the left of the player's name (the space in between the blocks). If you put a 'y' there the row is highlighted green, 'n' will highlight the row red, 'x' will highlight the row black, and anything else (I use a number) will highlight the row yellow. You can use this to select which players you do and do not want, cross out players that are already drafted, and highlight the players you have on your team. Who else should I check out? Let me know! I'm not sure who's back this year, so please message me or reply in the comments and I'll be sure to add them.
Daruuk is awesome and you should definitely check out his Draft Slayer.
NukishPhilosophy runs Fantasy Football Data Pros, a website which teaches you Python through fantasy football. I purchased the course and found it to be incredibly helpful.
Prayes does awesome work with his expert ranking tiers.
ElBoberto has a wonderful auction spreadsheet worth checking out.
CanadianSandGoggles continues his tradition of being awesome with an easily referenced sheet.
JuiceBoxOne is doing great work with his 'Abusing Draft Rankings' sheets.
If you're not following keepfast then you're missing out on some amazing newsletters.
BeerSheets 2020-08-20 (Actual Training Camp Hype Edition)
BEERSHEETS REQUEST FORM Welcome to BeerSheets! Note that since things have just opened up please submit a request for your sheet and I'll try to process things over the next few days so folks have their first sheet. After that expect weekly updates through preseason. If you have any questions, the best way to reach me is via a DM to @BeerSheets on Twitter. I can also respond here on Reddit but it's more difficult to keep track of conversations. LIKE MY SHEETS? PLEASE CONSIDER DONATING TO HELP INSPIRE KIDS TO BUILD ROBOTS! What is this? These are cheat sheets intended to help players in both snake draft and auction drafts. It uses a combination of value based drafting combined with a few of my own calculations to establish player value, positional scarcity, auction value, and tiers. How do I get my sheet? Click on the helpful link at the top of the post. It will direct you to a form that you can fill out. If your sheet is one of the previously generated formats it will automatically link to it, otherwise a request for a custom sheet will automatically be generated. Custom sheets are uploaded at least a week before your draft, which is why that field is included. What's new this year?
I redid the entire back end in Python... which meant I had to learn Python. Basically this allows me to vastly speed up the update process and should reduce the time delay between when sheets are requested and when they're processed.
I've reconfigured the entire sheet to improve readability. The color scheme was changed to be easier for those who are color blind, the ECR column was reformatted to make it easier to read, and I've added color coding to show where there's a significant difference between APD and ECR.
The value section has been changed to show the floor, ceiling, and average projection for each player. This should allow you to have a better idea of what the spread of player projections are.
I removed the historical performance column. It took up a massive amount of computational time.
I dropped the kicker section to make DST more useful. Now for DSTs you can see what the first four weeks are.
We're partnering with our good friends at 4for4 to help offset some of the server costs! If you subscribe to 4for4 with the coupon code BEERSHEETS we'll get a bit of money as an affiliate and you get 25% off. I've been using 4for4 for quite some time and I love their site, so this was a logical way to mitigate some of our expenses.
What's not new? We're still raising funds for the robotics team! The GoFundMe page is up and your generosity is sincerely appreciated! If the COVID-19 pandemic cancels the season the funds will go to another worthy cause such as STEM outreach charities or a local food bank. What are the calculations based on? I use as many projections as I can find to establish a range of projected values for each player. I use a Value Based Drafting approach to calculate the player value for each projection, and then average those values to get a final number. The standard deviation of those value projections are used to determine tiers. A key component of value based drafting is establishing the baseline player, which I set based on the "player-games" method. Essentially what I do is look at how many games on average each ranked player (RB1, RB2, etc) played the following year, and how many games are needed (#Teams x #Positions x 16 Weeks). The number of players needed to produce enough games to reach the desired quantity is the baseline. The original article is gone but pattertjdoes a great job of covering things here. Auction values are calculated using this method. As part of our partnership with 4for4 we're using their rankings for the DST, as well as their unique Strength of Schedule estimations to determine which opponents will be easier or harder. 4for4 offers this capability for every position and is one of my favorite features. What do the columns mean? Player Name: The name of the player. TM/BW: The player's team and bye week. ECR: The player's Expert Consensus Ranking based on FantasyPros, formatted in a "round|pick" format so that you can also use it to judge ADP. In general ADP and ranking is closely correlated, and players with no formatting are taken in the same round as their ranking. Values in blue mean the ADP is more than a round before the rank. Values in orange mean the ADP is more than a round after the rank. These ADP predictions do not apply to 2QB leagues! F, VAL, C: Player value in terms of Floor, Mean, and Ceiling. The average value of multiple projections relative to a baseline player (numbers shown in the title bar). Floor and Ceiling are the average value with the standard deviation of the projection either subtracted or added. In auction sheets these values are converted to dollar amounts. PS: Positional Scarcity. The percentage of player value remaining in that position once that player (and all players above him) are drafted. This is the means by which you can determine the opportunity cost of selecting one position over another. What does the shading mean? The alternating white and gray shading represents different tiers of player projections based on the distribution of values from the multiple sources I use. Tiers are groups of players whose projections overlap as a result of the mean and standard deviation of their particular data set. Individual projections are notoriously unreliable (the top experts are lucky to be right 60% of the time), so players who are shaded the same should be considered roughly comparable in value. Will you share the original data file? Nope. Can you do a sheet for my 13 player 2QB/1RB/3W2FLX/TE/DST/2PK league with 0.314 PPR and 9 PPTD? Fill out the form at the top of the post to request a custom sheet. I will try to get it uploaded a week before your draft. If your settings aren't in the drop-down menus click the 'Show Custom Ranges' checkmark above the Teams value. Can you do points per first down or premium TE scoring? Since I'm converting everything over the Python, and dealing with over half a million requests each year, I won't be able to do anything outside of the sheet this time. I'm sorry, but my goal in the long run is to add that capability back in. This is awesome! These sheets help me win my league last year, and you deserve a tip! How can I throw money at you? My workload has forced me to cut down on a lot, so just like last year I am raising funds for a high school robotics program that I mentor. Your dollars will directly help inspire students to become scientists and engineers and also help them build a 160 pound robot. Please click here if you're interested in helping, every dollar directly goes towards STEM outreach. Will you do IDP? I would like to, but it's difficult. The problem with IDP is that there aren't a lot of projections and the tiers become massive. Will you do Dynasty? This method doesn't work for dynasty, as the projections are only for one year. What's the best way to use this? Which categories should I pay attention to the most? The real meat of the sheet is value and positional scarcity. What I like to do is start off with value and see which players are available within each position that have similar value. I look at tier to get a sense of how many players are "clumped" together and see if I can't get value later on. It should be noted that the tiers are not absolute; comparing the last player of one tier to the first player of the tier below him is perfectly reasonable. Look at the floor and ceiling information to get a better sense of an individual player's expectations. Positional scarcity shows how much value is remaining in each position after a player is taken. In general you want the player with the lower PS, because there's less value remaining once that player is gone. This will also give you a sense of just how much value an individual player takes from the "pool" of points for each skill. Rankings are a great way to determine when a player should be drafted, when that player is actually being drafted, and also differentiating between players in a tier. They're a good way to pick between players who share a tier once I've decided which skill position I want to draft. It should be noted that rankings are limited to contemporary scoring and rosters; the more nonstandard your league the less useful the rankings may be. What's this about being able to highlight cells dynamically? The Excel sheets have a feature to automatically shade rows based on a value placed on the column to the left of the player's name (the space in between the blocks). If you put a 'y' there the row is highlighted green, 'n' will highlight the row red, 'x' will highlight the row black, and anything else (I use a number) will highlight the row yellow. You can use this to select which players you do and do not want, cross out players that are already drafted, and highlight the players you have on your team. Who else should I check out? Let me know! I'm not sure who's back this year, so please message me or reply in the comments and I'll be sure to add them.
Daruuk is awesome and you should definitely check out his Draft Slayer.
NukishPhilosophy runs Fantasy Football Data Pros, a website which teaches you Python through fantasy football. I purchased the course and found it to be incredibly helpful.
Prayes does awesome work with his expert ranking tiers.
ElBoberto has a wonderful auction spreadsheet worth checking out.
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[Game Preview] Week 6 - Philadelphia Eagles(1-3-1) vs Baltimore Ravens (4-1)
Philadelphia Eagles (1-3-1) vs Baltimore Ravens (4-1)
The Eagles dug themselves deeper into a hole and lost their title as Kings of Shit Mountain with their disappointing loss to the Steelers last Sunday. Rookie WR Chase Claypool made the Eagles defense look silly over and over on his way to 4 TDs, including a 35 TD reception with under 3 minutes to go to seal the game. Jim Schwartz thought that he is smarter than everyone else and believed it was a good idea to put his failing LB Nate Gerry on Claypool despite the fact Claypool had already scored 3 TDs on the day and Gerry has given up 23 receptions on 23 targets for 267 yards 4 TDs and a 154.6 passer rating. Schwartz will most definitely trott Gerry out there this week against the Baltimore Ravens who will have reigning MVP QB Lamar Jackson out there who can pick apart defenses with his arm and his legs. Schwartz will have to gameplan better than he has in previous weeks to keep Jackson contained and ensure talented Baltimore TEs Mark Andrews and Nick Boyle have someone covering them who isn’t named Nate Gerry. The Eagles have the talent on the defensive line to keep Jackson in the pocket and force him to beat them with his arm where the Eagles will get a boost in the secondary with the return of Will Parks who will make his first start for the Eagles after signing in the offseason. That said, the talent hasn’t been missing on the defense outside of the LB position, instead the gameplans have been nonexistent from Jim Schwartz who consistently decides his scheme is the most important piece and he can just run it regardless of what the offense runs. If that mindset continues expect another L for the Eagles and another big fantasy day for Lamar Jackson. On the other side of the ball the Eagles actually look like they are beginning to click. The offensive line held the Steelers top rated pass defense in check for the better part of the day and a weapon has emerged from the depths of the practice squad. In the past two games, Carson Wentz has a perfect passing rating when targeting Travis Fulgham who has consistently been able to find openings in the defense and make big catches for the QB. Wentz may get Jackson and Jeffrey back this Sunday as well which would give him some more confidence that guys can get open and make catches, both are currently listed as questionable, so we will see. This game most likely ends up as another L for the Eagles, but if they want any chance to win they are going to need their QB to make some big plays and they are going to need their defense to slow down the Ravens high powered offense. Go Eagles!
Record VS. Spread: Philadelphia 1-4, Baltimore 3-1-1
Where to Watch on TV
CBS will broadcast Sunday’s game to a regional audience. Ian Eagle will handle the play-by-play duties and Charles Davis will provide analysis and Evan Washburn will report from the sidelines.
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
WIP-FM
94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA
WCTO-FM
96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey
WENJ-FM
97.3 FM
Levittown, PA
WBCB-AM
1490 AM
Northumberland, PA
WEGH-FM
107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA
WPPA-AM
1360 AM
Reading, PA
WEEU-AM
830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
WEJL-FM
96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WEJL-AM
630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WBAX-AM
1240 AM
Williamsport, PA
WBZD-FM
93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE
WDEL-FM/AM
101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA
WSOX-FM
96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
LA MEGA
105.7 FM
Allentown, PA
WSAN
1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ
WIBG
1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Ravens Radio
Ravens Radio Gerry Sanduskey will return for his 14th season to handle play-by-play duties for the broadcast. Former Ravens Former Ravens players Dennis Pitta and Obafemi "Femi" Ayanbadejo will provide color and analysis during the game.
National Radio
Sports USA will broadcast the game nationally with Josh Appel handling the play by play and Brandon Noble will provide analysis.
November 16th, 1997 at Memorial Stadium, Baltimore, MD . Philadelphia Eagles 10 - Baltimore Ravens 10
Points Leader
Ravens lead Eagles (106-82)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 0-1 against the Ravens
John Harbaugh: 1-2 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs John Harbaugh: Harbaugh leads 1-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Ravens: 0-1
Lamar Jackson: Against Eagles: 0-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz v Lamar Jackson: First Meeting of QBs
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead Ravens: 2-0
Record @ M&T Bank Stadium: Ravens lead Eagles 2-0
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 20 - Steelers No. 6
Record
Eagles: 1-3-1
Ravens: 4-1
Last Meeting And Last Meeting at Site
Sunday, December 18th, 2016
Ravens 27 - Eagles 26
Baltimore (8-6) had a 27-17 lead and a first down at the Philadelphia 11 when Joe Flacco threw an interception to give the Eagles (5-9) another chance. Rookie Carson Wentz directed a drive that produced a field goal with 2:22 remaining. The Eagles got the ball back at their 41 with 1:39 to go. A 24-yard completion to tight end Zach Ertz and a pass interference call against rookie Tavon Young set up a 4-yard touchdown run by Wentz that got Philadelphia within a point. First-year coach Doug Pederson dropped his balls on the table and went for the victory, declining the conversion kick for a 2-point try. "I wanted to win the football game," Pederson said. Wentz threw over the middle to tight Jordan Matthews, who couldn't get his hands on a tipped ball and the Ravens won by a single point 27-26.
Eagles - The Eagles took on their cross state rival after coming off their first win of the season the week before and the Eagles feel flat on their face making the trip across the state. Jim Schwartz showed up with zero game plan and had no answer to runs by Chase Claypool, despite the fact the Steelers used similar plays earlier this seasons. Claypool owned the Eagles Sunday scoring 4 TDs including one with under 3 minutes left to put the nail in the coffin when Jim Schwartz put one of the worst coverages LBs in the league Nate Gerry on Claypool 1v1 with no help. The offense played their best game of the year this season with a break out game by Travis Fulgham, but Jim Schwartz and the defense never gave them a shot.
Ravens - The Ravens took on their division rival Bengals in Week 5. The Baltimore Ravens defense arguably put up the best performance by any team in the NFL this season, allowing just a field goal to an overmatched Cincinnati Bengals team in a 27-3 victory Sunday. Baltimore shut down Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense, holding the Bengals to just 205 yards on the afternoon while forcing three turnovers and completely dominating the line of scrimmage in the win. The Ravens would have had a shutout if not for a late field goal by the Bengals that was purely done to break the shutout.
Connections
Baltimore Head Coach John Harbaugh coached 10 years years for the Eagles as their Special Teams Coordinator and DB coach from 1998-2007.
Baltimore Assistant head coach/pass coordinatowide receivers Dan Culley spent 13 years with the Eagles as their WR coach and Senior Offensive assistant 1999-2012. Culley and Doug Pederson coached together from 2009-2015 as part of Andy Reid’s staff with the Eagles and Chiefs.
Baltimore QB Coach James Urban coached 7 years with the Eagles from 2004-2010 as an assistant to the head coach, offensive assistant/quality control coach and QB coach.
Baltimore LB LJ Fort played part of last season for the Eagles before he was cut, so that Jim Schwartz’s love child Nate Gerry could get more playing time.
Eagles VP of Player Personnel Andy Weidl worked for the Ravens as a scout from 2005-16.
Eagles Player Personnel Executive TJ McCreight worked for the Ravens as a scout from 1997-2004.
Eagles assistant director of player personnel Ian Cunningham worked for the Ravens for 9 years as a scout from 1998-2007.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles
Ravens
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)
QB Lamar Jackson (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)
K Justin Tucker (Starter)
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
RB Mark Ingram
LS Rick Lovato (Starter)
FB Patrick Ricard (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
TE Mark Andrews
SS Malcom Jenkings (1st Alt)
LT Ronnie Stanley(Starter)
OT Lane Johnson (1st Alt
G Marshal Yanda (Starter)
OT Orlando Brown Jr.
OLB Matthew Judon
CB Marlon Humphrey
CB Marcus Peters
FS Earl Thomas
LS Morgan Cox (Starter)
General
Referee: Shawn Smith
Philadelphia has produced a 2-2-1 record in the all-time series vs. Baltimore, including a 2-0 mark at home. The Ravens are one of nine NFL teams that the Eagles have never lost to at Lincoln Financial Field (since the 2003 season).
Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the NFL with 18.0 sacks, trailing only L.A. Rams (20.0) and Pittsburgh (20.0). Brandon Graham (54.0) – tied for the team lead with 3.0 sacks – is 1.0 sack shy of surpassing Hugh Douglas (54.5, 1998-2002, ‘04) for the 4th-most sacks in Eagles history, behind Reggie White (124.0, 1985-92), Trent Cole (85.5, 2005-14) and Clyde Simmons (76.0, 1986-93).
Miles Sanders has produced the 3rd-most rushing yards (316) in the NFL since his season debut in Week 2, trailing only Dalvin Cook (439) and Todd Gurley (319) in that category.
Travis Fulgham led the Eagles with 10 receptions for 152 yards and 1 TD in Week 5 at Pittsburgh. Fulgham is one of only three NFL players to register 10+ catches for 150+ yards and 1 TD in a game this season (also Davante Adams and George Kittle).
Draft Picks
Eagles
Ravens
WR Jalen Raegor
LB Patrick Queen
QB Jalen Hurts
RB JK Dobbins
LB Davion Taylor
DT Justin Madubuike
S K’Von Wallace
WR Devin Duvernay
OT Jack Driscoll
LB Malik Harrison
WR John Hightower
OT Trye Phillips
LB Shaun Bradley
OG Ben Bredeson
WR Quez Watkins
DT Broderick Washington
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
WR James Proche
LB/DE Casey Toohill
S Geno Stone
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles
Ravens
S Will Parks
DE Calais Campbell
DT Javon Hargrave
LS Nick Moore
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman
DE Derek Wolfe
CB Darius Slay
ILB Jake Ryan
OT Parker Ehinger
TE Jerell Adams
RB Kenjon Barner
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles
Ravens
S Malcom Jenkins
TE Hayen Hurst
CB Ronald Darby
OL James Hurst
RB Jordan Howard
CB Brandon Carr
WR Nelson Agholor
OL B.J. Finney
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai
WR Seth Roberts
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill
DT Michael Pierce
RB Darren Sproles
DE Chris Wormley
DT Timmy Jernigan
ILB Josh Bynes
LB Nigel Bradham
ILB Patrick Onwuasor
S Earl Thomas
Milestones
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (15379) needs 294 yards to move up to 4th on the Eagles all-time passing yards list moving ahead of QB Norm Snead.
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (907) needs 93 yards for 1000 career rushing yards.
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (6397) needs 68 yards to move up to 3rd on the Eagles all-time receiving yards list all-time passing WR *Mike Quick
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (34) needs 2 TDs to move into a tie for 7th on the Eagles all-time receiving TD list tying WR Jeremy Maclin
Eagles DE Brandon Graham (54) needs 1 sack to move to 4th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (49.5) needs 1 sack to move up to 6th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Greg Brown
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (27.5) needs 2 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DT Jerome Brown
Eagles TE Zach Ertz needs 112 receiving yards for 6000 career receiving yards.
Ravens RB Mark Ingram (1223) needs 27 yards to move up to 12th on the Ravens all-time rushing lists passing RB Javorius Allen and 112 yards to move up to 11th on the list passing RB Bernard Pierce
Stats to Know
Deep Passing
The body types are totally different, but WR Hollywood Brown poses a major deep threat to the Eagles defense, just as WR Chase Claypool did last week No WR in the league has more deep targets (beyond 20 yards) than Brown does, at 15, also catching 4 of 4 catchable deep balls. The next closes for the Eagles is Desean Jackson with 6 targets and 2 catches on 2 catchable deep balls.We don’t know if Desean will be a go for this game, but tell me which Eagle(s) you want defending Brown’s speed on deep balls or on end-arounds. Slay’s out and Mills is not fast. Looking at the QBs slinging these deep balls, Lamar Jackson is 7th in deep ball %, at 16.3% yet 24th in Adjusted Completion % (focusing the stat on QB agency). Wentz is slightly better in that statistic, good for 19th at 40%.
The Ravens have a diverse offensive attack led by the reigning NFL MVP and a creative Offensive Coordinator that is more than capable of shredding the vanilla Eagles defense. Thus far in 2020, Schwartz has shown little in the way of molding his defense to help cater to the personnel he has in place that has also regressed in his tenure. I’ve said repeatedly throughout this season, as well as in the run up to this season, that the Eagles defense took several steps back in personnel and overall talent to where their strengths really can’t hide the deficiencies in the back end. Other than Darius Slay, the only member of the back seven who can cover, the Eagles struggle to match against opposing offenses in man and zone coverage. They have several hybrid players who theoretically are jacks of all trades and masters of none; in a cruel twist of fate, that was entirely predictable, the Eagles defense has players that struggle with any kind of basic trait that helps a modern defense leaving them as effectively jacks of no trade. Lamar Jackson will execute a diverse rushing attack with 3 capable RBs and his own athleticism that presents a unique challenge for every NFL defense to defend. The Ravens also have a quality offensive line to aid him in targeting a very good Tight End in Mark Andrews and other capable receivers. This offense uses motions and other misdirection plays, as well as play action, at near league leading rates. This is a problem for the Eagles defense as not only are they not talented enough to stop it, they struggle in alignment and execute against motion, misdirection, and play action. Their linebackers are unable to process coverage assignments and frequently blow assignments leading to big plays. Their corners, outside of Slay, struggle to cover at all. It’s a bad recipe for an overmatched defense. Schwartz will need to get this group to play at the level they did two weeks ago in San Francisco in an effort to slow down the Ravens offense. This is one of the best teams in the NFL. The Eagles offense can’t be counted on to continue to match its opponents in a shootout given their personnel limitations on that side of the ball. And when they do find success, the defense struggles to play complimentary football - just like last week. This unit needs to show up or this will likely be a blowout.
Eagles Receiving Weapons vs. Ravens Secondary
Even without Earl Thomas, the Ravens still field one of the best secondaries in the NFL and are capable of executing a number of coverage assignments. They possess two outstanding corners, Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters, who are able to match up with whatever scrubs the Eagles pull off the street this week. Travis Fulgham is fresh off a career day and looks like the first viable receiver the Eagles have had in some time but you have to figure at some point his sudden meteoric rise will normalize soon. That normalization could likely be this week against a formidable secondary. Regardless of when that comes, Fulgham has acquitted himself nicely in the offense and should be a full time starting forward. Absent the return of Desean Jackson or the season debut of Alshon Jeffery, this is a receiver group that is still mightily undermanned due to injury and a lackluster front office. Philly could stand to see a reemergence of Zach Ertz from the struggle bus and produce more than the very little he’s contributed this season so far. Lastly, the Eagles need Carson Wentz to pick up where he left off after a strong performance against the Steelers. PFF graded Wentz as a top 5 QB last week and it was easily his most complete performance of the season which is a notable brightspot in an otherwise disappointing start to the season. This Ravens defense is no joke and is very opportunistic as they force a lot of turnovers. Wentz’s margin for error is already very small given the situation around him but this game requires him to better manage the game on each play to give the offense a shot.
Eagles Decimated Offensive Line vs Ravens Attacking Defensive Front
The Eagles Offensive Line is a surprisingly decent group despite the ridiculous amount of injuries they continue to take on so far this season. The only projected starter left on the offensive line is center Jason Kelce. Lane Johnson is questionable heading into Sunday’s contest and hasn’t practiced this week. He likely won’t go as he’s been dealing with an ankle injury that’s plagued him since training camp. Even if he does return, Johnson is likely to continue to be plagued with the injury bug as long as he isn’t on injured reserve. Jeff Stoutland deserves all the praise in the world for coaching up the current cast of characters on the OL as they haven’t played as horribly as you might imagine against stiff competition. The Steelers defensive front is one of the best in football and the Eagles OL did more than enough to help put them in a position to win last week. They face another difficult test Sunday as they face a complete Ravens front with a DC in Wink Martindale that loves to blitz more than any DC in the NFL. Matthew Judon, Pernell McPhee, Tyus Bowser, and Calais Campbell are a strong unit; Martindale isn’t afraid to bring anyone on a blitz. This offensive line needs to continue to communicate well to handle the onslaught of pressure they are about to face on Sunday. They don’t have the depth of talent to be expected to win consistently; if they play like they did last week, that could be good enough. It’s a very tall order though.
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