(GME DD) One DD to rule them. One DD to find them. One DD to to bring them all and in the darkness bind them.
Ok retards listen up. Been seeing lots of cucks writing small DD pieces of bullish or bearish shit. You cucks need to read this cos this is the whole fucking thing.
this is also basically my magnum fucking opus so upvote retards. Dont give me awards, legit go buy a powerup membership for a year. Cant tell you to buy shares because we gonna get closed down by SEC somehow. im also not some fininacial advisor or whatever just read this and make your own conclusions degenerates. Im not fucking liable lmao but i am balls deep 125 shares @ 19 average now, its literally all I have on this earth. TLDR: GME DD sumarized, Margin wont affect longs the same way as shorts right now. Dont buy shares on margin though and get ready to supply collateral regardless. Short interest is up and some smart retards are on our side. Read the post to raise your IQ from 8 to 9 though. 🐻 🌈s mega fuk and even posting high level bear shit to scare us. Compulsory 7 rockets so you autists dont start having a seizure or something: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Basically been seeing posts about "blah blah margin this, short interest this, WS to clever blah". Going to split this post into distinct sections but im no english degree cuck so dont expect any bear bloomberg level shit or something
1. GME is a fucking steal regardless of squeeze. Buy now or be left on a dying planet while we head to alpha fucking centauri.
So basically everyone here knows about Ryan cohen and his horsemen of the apocalypse coming to steal melvins lunch money. This man bought apple stock in 2017. Hes fucking rich. Hes also an eccommerce wizard, taking CHEWY from a measly 100k co-founded company to a $4 Billion company in 2017 at which point he sold it to petsmart or something. Its now valued at $40 Billion, granted anything eccommerce now gets money thrown at it like a stripper in a high flying strip club or some shit idk im a virgin so dont listen to me, so it may well be a bubble. Regardless the thing grows its revenue like bacteria doing binary fission on agar jelly 🚀🚀🚀🚀. THEY SELL FUCKING PET FOOD. the market for that is like what? $1?. Gaming is going to the moon and is basically recession proof because of how cheap game is compared to other things for how much you get out of it. Any bears saying that Gamestop cant compete with digital or with amazon. Ryan cohen already slapped amazons head in with a no name brand. Hell fucking do it again. About digital everyone here already knows, microsoft deal, Ryan cohen also mentioned the possibility of having "Digital game exchanging" or something, image below. Online trade ins. It says online.🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 He also mentions streaming, digital content etc and aside from all the digital stuff wants GME to move to a community centric structure where big stores operate with VR centres, Internet cafe, table games like Dungeons and dragons and 40k (rapidly growing somehow will boom post covid) and as we now might know due to this post: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kypuyb/gme_dd_buildapc_kiosks_coming/ BUILD YOUR OWN PC KIOSKS. This is the literal smell of money. Go to your Gamestop to build your PC with your kid? Gamestop is already the goto place wher your parents go to get you your latest digital fix so now they can go build PC's and it cant go tits up? Now for some pussy boomer talk (aka fundametals or something). The expected Q3 EPS was -0.84$ or something close to that. The actual loss was -0.53$ but boomzoids only talked about the revenue drop. No shit sherlock its closing all its dead weight stores. In the holiday report I will talk about a bit more below, 11% of stores were closed and revenue dropped only 3%. Comparitive store sales increased nearly 5%. They cant get enough consoles to sell so expect the momentum to carry on for the whole year I expect. Eccommerce is up 300% over holidays. In Q3 they reported 800% to date. In 2020 Gamestops eccomerce went up 24x. YES YOU READ THAT RIGHT. Online sales now account for ~33% of Gamestops sales now. This is literally gold dust for ryan cohen. We are still trading at 0.38 P/S at this price. The average P/S for the SP500 is 2.753. Massive upside on these two numbers alone. Burry got in this for the MOASS and the intrinsic value. At the time intrinsic value was like $22 and this will pump up as RC takes it to new heights. GME in Q3 somehow halved the expected loss. Big Bad Boomer sherman somehow didnt fuck it up that bad by saying "omnichannel" at the speed of light. Yes the revenue dropped 30% but thats covid for you. As the PC kiosk post above shows GME now sells small items basically so fast they have to have fake stock lmao. The new console cycle always spikes the share price sky high too, as youll see in a crayon drawing later. The potential revenue that this console cycle brings in could be huge. Biggest ever is potentially a true statement and Gamestop sells every fucker they get. Combine the fact that they share game pass ( a massive hit) revenue from the xboxes they sell, something no other retailer has, revenue could be sky high. Now I know you autists are starting to develop short term dyslexia or something but keep reading. This could be the most important piece of shit you read in your life. How do you think I feel? My brains overheating just trying to write coherent sentences. Holdiay report was a bear trap imo, saw people saying the decrease in revenue was bearish blah blah blah. Lies. Comparitve store sales rose 5% and thats with some towns having like 4 gamestops. When the leases dont get renewed and these stores get liquidated (Also in Ryan cohens letter) they can just get this influx of cash and pay down debt and invest in logistics and marketing and new growth. Gamestop realistically needs like 1/2 the stores they have now and just need to improve efficiency. https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/349890 this article the messiah himself wrote. In it he states:
At Chewy, we had maniacal discipline when it came to how we spent money. The company-wide culture of frugality came from his example. Free cash flow was our unwavering governor of growth. We grew Chewy from $200 million in sales in 2013 to $3.5 billion in 2018 while spending only $130 million in capital, all of which went into opening distribution centers across the country and acquiring new customers.
Maniacal. Thats all I need to say. The guy is going to get to mars before papa musk and he wont even break a sweat. When FCF starts to catch up to WS expectations every analyst who donwgraded them is gonna get ditched and upgrades will start to happen. So in the heading i said its a steal. That implies some future higher price target right? Well here is my guess for a conservative price target based on the information above and also some more I probably forgot cos im a retard. The difference is where share price looks to be and where market cap places us is due to difference in outstanding shares (another reason shorts are fuk)
The difference is where share price looks to be and where market cap places us is due to difference in outstanding shares (another reason shorts are fuk)
This alone means if for not inflation adjusted terms we reached 9.8Bn or whatever the crayon chart says we should reach: 9.8/2.48 = ~3.95 3.95 * $35.5 = ~$140. The share price now to reach old mkt cap is $140 fucking dollars. Thats a 4 bagger from now. It gets better. from statista :
Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in recent years, a 2.24 percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection.
If we take 2.24% inflation, the this share price target in todays money means we should reach $182 because of $140 * 1.0224^12, = $182 in adjusted. Thats more than a 5 bagger. basically we could see $10 GME price from short manipulation and buying more is basically a lottery ticket! I really dont understand the bear thesis. The only bear thesis ( short term this one) was that margin would affect longs more but I looked at it on ortex and its basically bullshit. Buy shares with cash though dont use margin. Own your piece of GME dont borrow it. Bears just spout "DigITaL" or "BlOCKbuSTER" so much Ryan tweeted a shit emoji at them. All the bears think theyre clever. What the fuck makes those cucks special? How are they different now than the ones from $2, or $4, or $10. Bears are betting against: Ryan fucking cohen, buisness legend CHEWY from 100k investment, now 40 billion Michael burry, Investing legend, predicted the housing crisis and is in GME since april u/DeepFuckingValue , the new WSB god chad, now basically a whale Reggie Fils-Aimé, gaming and buisness legend, former COO of nintendo Senvest, a mega fund thats actively managed Norweigan sovereign wealth fund Fidelity, Vanguard and blackrock own this shit and are never selling they literally dont give a shit All of WSB has now formed a shield wall against the bears Microsoft gave GME highly discounted azure deals and free office use for all employees and a revenue sharing agreement. Bears are stupid if they think MSFT didnt vet GME. Some valid bear thesis left now (the only ones left) -- Ryan Cohen dies.
2. Now some analysis on the short squeeze and some technical data on puts and calls and ortex data.
Ok everyone on here and their cat, dog, bedbugs and wifes boyfriend knows about the squeeze. Jimmy chill aka cramer even talking about it. Gamestop is literally the most shorted stock of all time and space. The squeeze makes every autist salivate because its basically free money while cucking big money out of like what 1% of their fund. Although I know all you cucks hate shares, and hate holding, if the squeeze doesnt happen selling is probably the most retarded thing anyone could do. Its literally buy high sell low and you fucking disgust me. STONK ONLY GOES UP. This squeeze is so monumental that its been sucking sharks in like fresh blood. Most of the funds where shorting this from 30-15 dollars before this year so they didnt really care. It all changed with 2 people. u/DeepFuckingValue and Dr. Michael Burry. These guys are as OG as it gets with GME. I think u/DeepFuckingValue may have even sniffed this trade out before the legend himself. Since then funds will have churned this through their rules and started jumping on this train. Ive been in since $13 with 125 shares. If I had more money Id be buying but im just some stupid student ok. Im merely a medium for this money made information. The stats for this stock now short wise are, from ortex: Concrete short interest as of 31 December 2020: 71 Million. Estimated short interest, January 11th data: (This isnt predicted, this is from data in flow, has margin of error) : 77 Million Short shares on loan 7 days ago: 50 Million Short shares on loan now (This breaks the bearish margin calls affect longs more thesis): 54.2 Million % of known float short: 147% as of 31 December 2020 % of know free float on loaned shorts: 108% as of January 11th. Some guy on here took into account extra buying on wednesday, Institutions, Burry, RC's extra 7% and WSB ownership (something so stupendously retarded no serious firm will do it) that float on short could be in the 100s of %. Total short float now I would say could be 200-400% if the numbers are correct. This pisses on all other short squeezes. Some countries ban shorting above 100% cos of how autistic it is. The recent hike in interactive brokers available shares is probably a mix of sell off on friday (remember some guys are now buying lambos with GME money. If they held they could buy 10), calls exercising and puts being covered and brokers ditching the shares. Nakedshort even reported 5 million naked GME shorts on friday. This is bullish as fuck because the best the shorts could do on a red market day was -10%. Gamestop is still on the SECs threshold list for 27 days now. This shows naked short selling and downwards pressure hasnt capitulated Need rockets 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀: Ok so now if WSB owns an estimated 6-8% of the stock and we all know to move over to cash accounts now to avoid margin calls, we should be minimizing longs getting margin called. Every bear on stockwits is a clueless cuck who spouts "blockbuster" and these guys dont even know what margin even is so my bet is the colossal 54 Million shares short on loan are gonna be affected by the margin calls more. Why? Because every long on margin is in the green, and now a true zealot/extremist/autist for ryan cohen so will supply their account with collateral to avoid margin call. Shorts are in the massive red zone. How do I know you ask? Ortex data from Jan 4th 2021: This is the data from ortex for short interest for Gamestop for Jan 4th So this shows for jan 4th the estimated short interest is 66.98 Million shares. From the exchange reported 71 Million on december 31st this makes a lot of sense because the share price fell from ~21 to ~17 so shorts took profits. The shares on loan arent for longs too. This is all purely short data, and 47M shorted at $17 this shows. These shorts are in a circle of hell we cant comprehend and makes satan scared. 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Now for the data for this week: Ortex short data for Jan 14th for Gamestop SHARES ON LOAN HAVE GONE UP. BUT 87% OF LOANED SHORTS WHERE SHORTING AT SUB $20. Cost to borrow is also up, estimated short interest is up to a cataclysmic amount. Longs on margin need to supply collateral, but we are in the massive green zone, shorts are underwater. Margin calls will ravage the shorts and sting the longs. We also have the uptick rule in place until the end of the day, so shorts can only short on the way up. Im not saying itll happen but this shit is skewed in our favour big time. we need to 💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌. 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Seen a lot of talk about Gamma hedging and delta. You realize that the fucking bankers and brokers dont understand gamma hedging right? That shits up their with the black-scholes equation and feynman-kac solution. Forget about it. The retards claiming to understand it are either payed by hedge funds or lose money. The guy who took out outs thinking options exercising and gamma hedging would lead to a collossal sell off on friday lost money on his puts because no one except some quants in a goldman sachs server room know this shit. The idea is simple about neutral delta on options that people take out, but the simple system interacts with every other thing in the stock market, and wow who couldve guessed it, like nearly any other element of the stock market predicting something by the day is nigh impossible. That guy talking about Gamma , Delta and margin calls is on weeklies. Hes no more autistic and equally retarded as all of us. Hes a chill guy though so dont berate a fellow brother. Now weve established the likelihood of longs getting margin called is far smaller than shorts, on to the options distributions Two images now: Top one is before the end of the 15th, the other one is after market close: This shows the suspected melvin puts (51000 contracts, 5 Million shares, rolled up from july, strike price $24) and lots of big ITM calls. 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 This shows the big put contract didnt get rolled over and the big ITM calls got exercised on friday. Large puts are underwater big timem while calls are in the big tendy zone. These two graphs, show before market close and after. As we can see the massiver 51000 put contracts didnt get rolled over and the chances that those were melvins july puts rolled up is very high. They expired worthless. Lots of calls are printing big time while huge amounts of puts are worthless and bleeding money. Something else we can extrapolate from the charts is that massive options trades are not present on the scale we saw before (tens of thousands). 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 We are seeing a discrepancy in the number of puts/calls opening up at the higher prices with calls gaining fast. This could show that some funds are now becoming optimistic on the long or short term prospects of gamestop. There are also more puts than options and if we assume this for shorts vs longs on margin (without even taking into account that all shorts are borrowed shares and pay interest further bleeding cash) then shorts are likely on more margin than longs. Regardless fellow autists my main point is two show that the bears are underwater and the bulls are flying high with regards to options. Now lets compare this possible squeeze with others. Bear in mind this is the most shorted stock of all time, but differences in free float change the share price differently. Kodak went from $2.16 to $33.2 Volkswagen went from ~200 euro to nearly 1000. Overstock went from ~$21 to $123 Blue apron went from $2.31 to $18 Ive been seeing some estimated that 1 million shares is roughly a dollars move in share price. This maths is about to be pretty autistic so bear with me degnerates. $1 now is 2.81% of the share price. Everything in the markets is exponential and based on percentages. So if we assume a full squeeze of ortexs estimated short interest (This assumes no sell off and no new shorts, new shorts can be positive or negative depedning on when in the squeeze they happen) $35.5 * 1.0281^77 = $299. GME to moon. 🌑 . This shit can happen. Hold on. GME has squeezed and been manipulated before and it always happens around the console cycles. Shorts never win and they wont win now. This post right here I found months ago and got me in the squeeze from the honourable and valiant u/Uberkikz aka Rod Alzman Basically the crayon chart shows green (outstanding shares) orange ( short shares) purple (Market cap) and cyan (Share price). In 2006-2008 the share price rose in tandem with short interest ( Like now ) Until console releases when you can see an abrupt squeeze happend mooning the share price. This happend to a degree in 2013 with the xbox one but worse conditions for the company and a worse console launch lead to slow short covering but the share price still mooned. Now we get to the best part. History is repeating itself for the third time and the shares sold short are literally higher than the outstanding shares, which have been decreasing since 2010. Short shares are also at the highest point ever and GME hasnt had a brighter future, well ever. Ps5 and Xbox Series X. are the two most hyped consoles since the Ps2. This is setting up the foundations for massive price movements weve never seen before. This shit has literally never happend, ever. Uncharted waters and we are the captain. For the insurmountably retarded autists who think that the squeeze has happend look upon this and despair: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kwpf6k/gme_gang_there_hasnt_been_a_short_squeeze_yet/ IHOR IS A MEGA WIZARD Ihor I quote:
A long-buying tsunami ... is the primary factor for the price move
Ihor Dusaniwsky is managing director of predictive analytics at S3 a firm similar to ortex. He told bloomberg that the squeeze hasnt happend yet and that this was long buying. If someone knows this shit its him. He was talking about the tesla squeeze in january 2020. He has access to resources we can only imagine. Barrons cut his comment that the squeeze hasnt happend yet out it was that fucking bullish. All the media ramming down "Short squeeze has happend" down peoples throats because bears are fucking scared. The bots on stocktwits spamming bearish sentiment should show how rattled they are. Edit: You fucking degens just enlightened me that cramer pump is real, funds are ruminating over the long weekend, and stmmy bills pumps stonks and that stimmy bill buys many an xbox. See you at andromeda! Also more rockets. Edit**: Some autists thought lottery ticket was misleading so instead, gauranteed lottery numbers!** Edit 3: RYAN FUCKING COHEN TWEETED THE HOMIE JUST TWEETED. PEANUT EMOJI. HES 1) NUTTING 2) SAYING 35 IS PEANUTS 3) GIF SAYS THERES A CHANCE, SHORT SQUEEZE IMMENINT HOMIES Edit 4: Amazing post here showing that unlucky prize guy was wrong like I said. Ihor also talked about the hypothecation agreement. Edit 5: This is true and I forgot to add
from u/luncheonmeat79 via /wallstreetbets sent 2 minutes ago There’s also the chance of a ratings upgrade. Moody’s and S&P have GME at B3 and B-, which is rated “highly speculative”. Ratings are reviewed every quarter, and a review might be due this month (i.e. this coming week or next). Good chance that the agencies might upgrade GME to a B2/B, or even better to the next higher band (Ba/BB).
Edit 6: We are scraping 42 in frankfurt. Granted its low volumes but pre market should open at these prices I think? Conclusion: Buy shares with cash not margin. Hold shares forever unless RC dies (Shame hes a cybernetic demigod), Melvin bad, Shorts fuk, 🐻 🌈 posting bearish shit are doing weeklies for the second time after they expired red on friday, GME to $200 without squeeze, Ryan cohen a god, GME is still a value play, Good luck have fun.
GME long. DFV had it right on the fundamentals in market context and still has it right.
Listen up Retards, I have no idea idea what I'm talking about, but you should stop panic selling and get back in GME, HODL, and DO NOT LOOK at your balance for the next six months. I'm late to GME and bought into the hype. Every day I've been tracking GME and got really close to selling, but before I sold, I decided study u/deepfuckingvalue activity for insights into why GME. I found a comment about that locked me in and want to discuss with you retards. The news screams at us that the market is over valued. Time and time again a company has $40bn market cap on a measly $2bn revenue with $500mm profits. Who in their right minds would say a company is worth $40bn when it would take 80 years to see ROI. OVER VALUED TRASH. Even UBER report billions in losses but institutional investors are still riding a wave on overvalued trash, why shouldn't we do the same? GME is a good buy compared to loads of other OVER VALUED trash on the market.
People talk up the demise of GameStop yet here they are about to generate over $2b in revs in a single quarter at the tail end of a console cycle. - u/deepfuckingvalue
$2bn in revenue in a quarter is not bad. In 2020, GME had revenues of $6.5bn with $300mm in losses down from $8.3 revenue with $491mm in losses in 2019--their worst year since each year before they were turning a profit. Amid a global pandemic GME manages to hold onto revenue and contain losses, they even came close to a profit in Q420 with only $20mm in losses down from $84mm in Q419--amid a global pandemic with Q420 ending in October and not including holiday sales. Look at UBER and SNAP. In 2020, UBER had $14.15bn in revenue AND $8.6 BILLION IN LOSSES yet currently $113bn market cap. OVER VALUED TRASH WITH HUGE LOSSES. Or SNAP. In 2020 it had $2.5bn in revenue, $945mm in losses and currently has $94bn market cap. OVER VALUED TRASH WITH HUGE LOSSES. If GME is over valued trash like these smart buys then it must be valued at $100bn, maybe $50bn. But wait, GME market cap rests at a modest $3.4bn. WTF?? So you mean to say GME's revenues are 2x its stock market value while closing in on losses but UBER and SNAP are killer buys with $100bn market cap with no end to their bleeding $$. THE EXPERTS SAY ITS BECAUSE THE SHIFT TO DIGITAL!!!
The financial news screams at us saying digital has killed brick in mortar, blah blah blah, we live inside computers now--see PROOF we are on WSB ALL DAY!! If brick and mortar were dead then why would Amazon purchase Whole Foods? Why do companies like PELOTON have retail stores ALL ACROSS THE COUNTRY? Why did e-commerce sales only represent 11% of all retail sales in the US in 2019? BECAUSE THE SHIFT TO DIGITAL IS WAY OVERBLOW BULLSHIT THEY FEED US. GME has losses, sure, but they are containing costs with revenue exceeds their entire stock market value. GME is bringing in loads of $$ and their nearly contained losses are way under leading trash-buy stocks like UBER and SNAP. Brick and mortar is alive even in a pandemic--just wait until after the pandemic. People like to visit shops and get their buy on quickly--that's why AMZ bought Whole Foods and online retail only represents a fraction of brick and mortar retail sales. GME is not going anywhere anytime soon. GME is undervalued compared to the rest of the trash on the overvalued market. That's why I'm holding, will stop looking at the ticker price, and will no longer join in discussion about GME on WSB. See you all in the summer of 21 ✋💎🤚 This is not financial advice. I have no idea what I'm talking about. I just like the stock. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Card
New GME member orientation before blast off: The squeeze has not been squoze (💎🙌 = 🚀🚀🚀)
This is a compilation DD for you new simps out there trying to become chad GME investors and grow 1/1000th the dick that DeepFuckingValue has. This post will cover the basics of how we got here and answer some of your simmering questions that I see flooding daily discussions.
TLDR: Hold the line and buy the dip give the glorious finger to these greedy corporates. Remember 💎🙌 = 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
GameStop History Lesson:
tldr: GME bumbles about like a senile boomer and dabbles in terrible bets. Turns into undervalued stock with cultural significance, gets picked up by Big Dick Burry and Ryan Chewy Cohen. GME is a childhood dream that turns any grown man into an autist as soon as he walks into the door. Now due to our Lady Rona (covid), a bunch of past Boomer business decisions (GME fucking bough 507 AT&T stores in 2014, not pivoting into omni-channel, largely misssing the gaming industry explosion, and a CEO who prides himself on brick and morter Advance auto parts, Best Buy, Target, Home depot) GME by and large was shitting the bed as investors thought of this company as neglected mallfront with dwindling clientele. In comes Michael big dick Burry With the stock trading at $3.78/share in August 2019 investers were sure it was finished. But here's where it gets interesting. With big dick energy seemingly out of no where Michael Burry (yes that dude in the Big Short who seems like a fellow autist) buys 2,750,000 shares or 3.05% of GameStock. In his actual letter to the board(yes I dug it up so you can read it as well) he describes the thought process for the purchase bullets below.
GameStop was trading at an all-time low ($3.78/share) and he believed that it had not leveraged it's "elite potision in the gaming universe" over the last 5 years (keep in mind, it's fucking GameStop a cultural icon large enough to make a grown man weep with fond memories
Shareholders do not have faith in current managament and have not been inspired by new leadership policies
At time of writing stocks were more than 60% shorted
(Taking a break to say, it's not too late thesqueeze has not been squozeoblig 💎🙌 = 🚀🚀) Ryan mega dick Cohen writes a letter Then in Nov 16th 2020, Ryan Cohen comes in swinging and tears a new one to the board members of GameStop. For people who don't know who Ryan Cohen is, he stuck the finger to Amazon and built a digital e-commerce site) (wiki link) for fucking dogs and cats into a $3.35 billion entity by 2017. Keep in mind that he submitted a Schedule 13D to purchase 121,644 shares at $6.56 per and 163,030 at $8.63 - that's a 10% stake (yes, I've also dug the original Schedule 13d using google). Now Ryan's letter reads like a solid talking down that might rival the Queen - looking at you TheCrownNetflix, AskUK. I've included Ryan's letter to the board but will bullet point paraphrase below for you folks still on Yahoo or Ask Jeeves.
GME has a strong brand across the globe and has 55 million PowerUp members
GME needs to pivot immediately to a tech structure and it can (lolz, after this letter they immediately brought Ryan and Chewy co onto board)
Size of the global gaming market has grown more than 2.5x since the last console cycle
Ryan mega dick Cohen and team join GameStop board In January 2021 Ryan Cohen, Alan Attal, and Jim Grube join GME's board. Now for those of you in the bread line or living at your wife's mothers house playing DnD with her boyfriend, board changes are big news. These board members have the power to make multiple grown men cry, fire CEOs like it's nothing and change a companies strategy sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse. With Papa Cohen coming onboard and his squad of Chewy troopers, it's likely that we are going to soon see a pimped out GameStop that will make you name your first born "GME". Now I'll let you do your own digging and reading but here's just some of the GME DD on it's future potential (link to DD on some of GME's possible pivots, One DD to rule them all)
The squeeze has NOT been squoze:
There is still time for you to convince your wife's girlfriend to lend you money to buy GME. The squeeze has not been squoze and likely wont until we see the type of eruption that accompanied belledelphineXmas leaks (yes that sub is NSFW). Side note on the Squeeze, GME is still massively over shorted at estimates from 130-300% and counting. The important thing to know is that these greedy bastards took multiple short positions on a single stock (naked) and essentially bet that GME was going to go down. https://financhill.com/most-heavily-shorted-stocks-today (249.67% Shorted) But what happened on Thursday/Friday? Gamma squeeze. Short and simple. Now you can read some other DD about what a gamma squeeze so I wont dive into it too much. It was not the squeeze. Market makers needed to rush to fill calls that were In The Money. This prompted these market makers to buy up stock in the off chance that they needed to actually sell them to degens who were actually betting that GME would blow it's sweet load at 60 and now at 150 lolz. This pared with the low stock volume on the market makes for high volitility on a per stock basis. Here's some DD links talking about what a Gamma squeeze what we witnessed was that. Ok MallCop2020, but when will it Squeeze?(when it does squeeze it may squeeze multiple times) Thanks to fellow autist u/tsukune_surprise(and no, CNBC I don't even know this person - they could be a robot or even a fucking dog with a cybor implant IDK!) BUT I love their DD for the MOASS (Mother of All Short Squeeze). Short answer is that it could be this week, could be next but it's hard to say when the big banks are using dirty tricks like naked call ladders, actual bail outs lolz. (Fresh DD from another internet stranger onGME EndGame Part 3)
EVERY SINGLE indicator shows massive upward momentum on GME. GME momentum is going to create a massive upward feedback loop. The combination of options gamma squeeze, available float, and short interest makes it impossible for shorters to escape. Normally, shorters deep underwater could hedge their losses by buying call options. But buying call options decreases the float and the only tightens the squeeze. It’s like fighting against quicksand for the shorters. This GME squeeze is going to be historic because of the compounding effect of options and short interest. This could be bigger than the VW/Porsche infinity squeeze. But it’s completely different from VW – so don’t draw too many comparisons.
Okay, I've asked my wife's girlfriend nicely and now have $1k... Buy fucking shares. No legit, support your random internet brethren (who don't know each other) and buy shares of GameStop. Every share you buy bleeds money from Citron and Melvin. Here's an explanation from u/robert1032010 a Hedge Fund Manager on the current short position within GME: (A hedge fund managers perspective on GME)
The short positions of this issue appears (although I can't be certain) to exceed 100% with all available shares already lent out from marginal accounts and probably a lot of naked shorting going on as well. Although I don't yet have the current data on todays short position, I can say for certain the stock remains very heavily shorter, perhaps more so now than at any previous time. Today, I called my broker asking about the availability of shares to short and the borrow costs. We have one of the larger accounts at our brokers firm and I was able to speak directly to the "hard to borrow" desk. No borrowable shares are available at any broker, anywhere, at this time, even for high borrow costs or even from other brokers. This extreme short against a small common float, made more extreme no-doubt by naked shorting, could end very poorly for those short this issue. As they are forced to close out their positions, the stock will continue to rise and continue to exacerbate the positive effects the rising price has on the above 4 issues.
Lastly, this is not financial advice; do your own DD. I'm holding $20k at $100/share and yes, I still fucking believe that the tendieman will come and rain tendies. Oblig: 💎🙌 = 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Educate yourself on the battle ahead. GameStop investor relations resources.
It’s the weekend. What else are going to do? Educate yourself so you know what you’re getting into. This isn’t financial advice. GameStop investor relations home page https://news.gamestop.com/home-page Institutional ownership of GME https://news.gamestop.com/stock-information/institutional-ownership Who owns the shares, who wants the share to go up, what percentage of shares are in index funds, who will have your best interest as a shareholder when shit gets popping is answered here Holiday sales number for 2020 https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-reports-2020-holiday-sales-results I want to highlight 309% increase in online sales and online retail transition is something Ryan Cohen is advocating. Also shows the effects of weak store closures and covid. Interesting read. Ryan Cohen and new additions to the board of directors https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-announces-additional-board-refreshment-accelerate This right here is what started it all. It highlights expertise, resumes, and future visions. Q3 earnings release https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-reports-third-quarter-results-positive-start-fourth This is the previous earnings report. Good information lending insight into the progression into the 5th generation of consoles. Q4 being reported slated for 3/25. Conference call logs https://news.gamestop.com/events-and-presentations If you actually listen to all of these as a podcast, you need to go outside and take a walk. You haven’t seen the sun in weeks. GameStop careers https://careers.gamestop.com Be the change you want to see. Work for the company and influence from within. Two words: stock options. The actual website https://www.gamestop.com There’s some awesome sales going on right now. There’s been a lot of sales like buy 5 for $10 or 4 for $30 and this is moving products off the shelves. Did you know that they also sell electronics like TVs, drones, and smart home devices? Giving Best Buy a run for their money. GameStop Twitter Twitter.com/gamestop This is where most of the PR happens. 2 days ago, they tweeted about Magic the Gathering right at market close. https://twitter.com/gamestop/status/1354172351449980928?s=21 Elon Musk tweeted a Magic the Gathering meme to follow up and then shouted out /wallstreetbets https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1354202453252710402?s=21 Twitch chat is the best DD Twitch.tv/GameStop Upcoming gaming events that could potentially impact the trading price of GME in the next months Taipei Game Show January 28th-31st https://tgs.tca.org.tw/index_2b_e.php?PHPSESSID=0mqn5v4d8ldc3vnfrumrq0epi2 Blizzcon 2021 February 19th-20th https://blizzcon.com Anticipated upcoming game releases Elden Ring God of War 2: Ragnarok Resident Evil Village Far Cry 6 Death Loop Horizon: Forbidden West Halo: Infinite Hogwarts Legacy Gotham Knights Gran Turismo 7 Hollow Knight: Silksong Diablo 4 Overwatch 2 Breath of the Wild 2 Persona 5 Strikers 25th anniversary Pokémon games and remasters As you can see lots of heavy hitters coming this year. Honorable mention: markets would crash if Grand Theft Auto 6 is announced Half Life 3 is announced Skyrim 2 or Elder Scrolls 6 release date revealed World of Warcraft 2 is announced Confirmed existence of Chess 2 TLDR: Not financial advice but I am holding til they pay me what it’s worth. https://i.imgur.com/2HdNvR9.jpg
GOG announces that they will sell ‘Devotion’, a game banned in China for having a hidden easter egg comparing Xi Jinping to Winnie the Pooh. A few hours later, they do a swift 180 and retract the decision "after receiving many messages from gamers”. Cue backlash in many gaming subs.
EDIT 3 : CONGRATS TO ALL GME HOLDERS. TRUELY HONORED TO BE PART OF THE GME FAM. 🚀
Introduction
PDF VERSION HERE (20+ pages) with all the references and better quality illustrations but without updates and typo corrections. This is the FIRST VERSION of the post, but there could be more edits. I wanted to do a more extensive DD but as my exams start tomorrow I don’t have more time. If you want to take my work and extend it, please feel free to do so, just give a little shout out. FIRST AND FOREMOST, SHOUTOUT TO 🚀💎🙌 GME GANG 💎🙌 🚀, YOU’RE IN MY ❤️. This DD is just my own analysis. I put my money where my mouth is but this is definitely not advice. Do your own DD. Last thing: Some stuff might be unsourced in this post but everything is sourced in the pdf version. While it’s not impossible that I might have missed some stuff, most of the time I put the stuff that I quote from other sources in italics. My ego is not big enough to feel like reformulating other people’s ideas and even less to steal other people's ideas. All I do is just gather insightful facts, figures, ideas and analysis.
Big picture
1.1 Macroeconomic View
I will be brief here, I think everyone knows what’s up basically. Figure 1: although the USD is worth a lot less, the S&P 500 is doing alright. Thanks Jerome. Enthusiasm is the key word here as we are in an environment with a very accommodative monetary and fiscal policy (thanks for the stimulus checks). Equities and Bitcoin hit record highs thanks to positive vaccine news and the markets hope for a fiscal package. The Federal Reserve is going heavy on asset purchases, bailouts and loans. And its balance sheet is expanding as well as money supply. Interest rates are extremely low. Check for example, the Shiller PE ratio to see the enthusiasm driving the markets. On a macro-level side from the risks related to the pandemic, the only worrying signs would be the shrinking money velocity or a suddenly-rising inflation (hyperinflation is bullish for stocks but not for the real economy). That being said, we know how the FED and the government reacted to support the economy and the markets. Low interest rates and weak US dollar which is continuing to depreciate is very bullish for stocks overall. I keep the macroeconomic view very short for that GME correlation with the S&P 500 is low - about 28% over the last 6 months. Moreover despite GME’s heavy reliance on brick-and-mortar stores, GME continues to get closer to profitability even with the pandemic. If the pandemic would make the stock market to crash again during the trade, I wouldn't sell at a loss but wait a few days and then buy a LEAPS. This is my plan. Don't follow it, just make sure you have a plan in case it happens, it's important to avoid buying too much the first dip (because you might get a better price later) or worse, avoid a panic-selling and take a loss instead of tendies.
In years 3 and 4 combined, if just 5 million customers extend the subscription for two years, GameStop makes $180 million in incremental profit with zero cost involved. That's nearly a quarter of GameStop's current market cap in recurring income at 100% margin. - Justin Dopierala, “GameStop Revenue Sharing Agreement With Microsoft Shifts Sentiment.” SeekingAlpha.
2.2 Business Model and Management
Gamestop is omnichanneling into online activities according to Ryan Cohen recommendations although it doesn’t mean they will execute it perfectly this is bullish.
“GameStop needs to evolve into a technology company that delights gamers and delivers exceptional digital experiences – not remain a video game retailer that overprioritizes its brick-and-mortar footprint and stumbles around the online ecosystem.” Ryan Cohen.
The company attributes the losses this quarter to the end of the console cycle and the limited hardware and accessory availability that came with that, as well as various game delays, and an 11% reduction in its store base - partially offset by recaptured sales at other locations and online. → The company should be profitable very soondespite being priced for bankruptcy for a long time → Expectations are incrediblly low until recently, more investors are believing in the vision esp. with Ryan Cohen.
GME e-commerce sales were up 257% year-over-year.
GME reduced its selling, general, and administrative expenses by $115 million.
GME repaid $10 million in debt in Q3 2020.
GME isdiversifying sales to include more high margin itemslike PC accessories, PC monitors, etc (If I speculate, there may be partnerships with certain brands).
Focusing on loyalty programslike power ups andrebranding.
As of Feb. 2020, GameStop had 5,509 physical stores.
GME is closing unprofitable locations: they are closing 1,000 stores in Q1 2021 (by the end of March of 2021).
I’d like to quote a fellow GME gang member on this: It's no secret that brick and mortar is falling off, and if GameStop were to fight tooth and nail to remain a largely brick and mortar retailer they would go bankrupt in no time. It is also a fact that underperforming stores drain cash, which lowers net income and thus lowers earnings per share. Any store that is LOSING MONEY or is barely breaking even is keeping the stock price down because it's preventing future growth and killing net incomes. Closing underperforming stores will lead to a higher EPS and more cash that can be allocated to growth. - horny131313.
Gamestop is rebranding, and shifting to becoming the one stop video game and video game related product online retailer. While we haven't seen exactly what this will be, it is bullish to see them pivoting into other products besides just video games. Headsets, TVS, PC parts, you name it. You've seen the omnichannel memes, but we know that If they are bullshitting, Cohen will step in. Expect to see real progress made.
Some words from the last earnings:
"We anticipate, for the first time in many quarters, that the fourth quarter will includepositive year-on-year sales growth and profitability*, reflecting the introduction of* new gaming consoles*, our* elevated omni-channel capabilitiesand continuedbenefits from our cost and efficiency initiatives*, even with the potential further negative impacts on our operations due to the global COVID-19 pandemic.*" George Sherman, CEO.
Possible catalysts (from KYJELLYTIME69):
A possible new Nintendo console release in ~1-2 years
Currently distressed commercial REITs = ability to negotiate lower rent = more $$$
Likely return of inflation (debatable but money supply ballooned and we are seeing velocity pick up a bit) with JPOW promising to keep rates at 0% even when inflation comes back = bullish for all stocks, bears will get slaughtered
OG printer Yellen manning the treasury in a month + possible dem senate = more stimmy checks = more money going into GME
If sales improve and balance sheets continue improve, we might see more credit upgrades
Better sales = possible dividend reinstatement, I couldn't care less about dividends but guess who's going to be paying? The shorts lol. If Sherman had balls, he would pull an OSTK and announce a special dividend , which will actually lead to a short squeeze while wsb laughs collectively as we get meme returns from this boomer move.
2.3 The Short-Squeeze Thesis
Figure 6: Stare statistics from Oct. 2019 to Nov. 2020 In terms of metrics, the DTC (days-to-cover) actually decreases, lowering the probability to get a short-squeeze short-term. Don’t get me wrong, this DOESN’T mean that it can’t happen, the % of shares shorted is still crazy high. Days to cover: It gives investors an idea of potential future buying pressure. In the event of a rally in the stock, short sellers must buy back shares on the open market to close out their positions. Understandably, they will seek to purchase the shares back for the lowest price possible, and this urgency to get out of their positions could translate into sharp moves higher. The longer the buyback process takes, as referenced by the 'days to cover' metric, the longer the price rally may continue based solely on the need of short sellers to close their positions. Additionally, a high 'days to cover' ratio can often signal a potential short squeeze. This information can benefit a trader looking to make a quick profit by buying that company's shares ahead of the anticipated event actually coming to fruition. (Investopedia). In terms of corporate actions, here is a quote from September mentioning the hostile takeover from Ryan which would trigger a massive short-squeeze, here is the explanation: Short Squeeze Potential -If Ryan Cohen successfully negotiates a purchase price with the Board then the shareholders will have to vote on it. Unlike the proxy battle where Hestia and Permit were running a minority slate of directors, an offer to purchase GameStop would force institutions like Vanguard and Blackrock to call in their shares. By doing so, the shorts would be forced to close out their positions and GameStop would finally have the greatest short squeeze of all-time. Ironically, Cohen could use this opportunity to sell all of his shares and use the proceeds to entirely fund the acquisition of GameStop going down as the first person in history to acquire a billion dollar company... for absolutely nothing. In fact, his acquisition price would be less than zero. It will be exciting to see how it all plays out as according to Bloomberg/WSJ there are now 58 million shares short as of 8/31/2020 with only 65 million shares outstanding. If I were short, I'd be sweating bullets right now. This won't end well and will ruin many. Justin Dopierala is President and Founder of DOMO Capital. How to know when the potential short-squeeze could happen?
Massive volume in short dated calls. [...] If you have shares, DO NOT SELL COVERED CALLS FROM THEM. by doing this you make the likelihood of a squeeze decrease. - horny131313
Unwind their short position with some behind closed doors deal. A scenario like this could include: Melvin offering shares of other stocks at discounted prices in exchange for GME shares or to unload a portion of their short shares. The second party to this deal could also offer to buy GME shares for higher than market prices - horny131313
Melvin and BoA both have short positions, and are desperately trying to drive the price down. Unfortunately, it is getting harder and harder to convince people that gamestop is a failing business. They are sweating and will continue to sweat. Given the buy side volume, they could close these short positions gradually without triggering a massive squeeze, however it WILL drive the price up significantly higher than it is now. - horny131313.
2.5 What 2020 Has Taught Us?
I think at this point it is the wrong question to ask (is the stock being manipulated?). To me, the most important thing is what is the upside potential and the risks associated? Then, how to trade GME?
If you're new to gamestop, the volatility will seem scary but the shorts fight hard with this one. -10% days followed by +20% days are not unusual. - horny131313
Whether the stock is manipulated or not, MOST of the 2020 trading days were negative.
The worst daily returns were hard to handle honestly we are talking multiple worst than 14% daily drawdowns.
You could more than triple your money WITHOUT LEVERAGE.
Let’s say you bought late Apr. and sold late Aug. you could have been at -13% returns and +31% the next week if you had diamond hands. For the real diamond hands you had +147% returns the next 2 months.
Psychologically this was a hard trade for sure. But for those who had diamond hands, it was pretty amazing. If you don’t feel comfortable being at -20% or even -30% returns for months before the stock literally BLOWS UP… Reduce your position and diamond hand with a smaller size. Better to win with less than lose with a lot… TLTR: DIAMOND-HAND THIS OR DON’T TRADE THIS AT ALL.
Risks
3.1 Upside Risks
RC Ventures LLC increases its stake.
It could be VERY soon. On the 31 December 2020, someone bought 900K shares, it could be Ryan Cohen given the size of its last purchases:
This is very bullish because after the disclosure of additional buying from Cohen last time, even though it strangely took 1 full trading day for the market to pop up, GME shot up 29%.
Surprise investors with their holiday sales and/or EPS.
GME will more than likely beat earnings next quarter. I won't go into much detail into this because it is not my expertise, howeveru/Uberkikz11has done some amazing DD and has been doing so for a long time. This guy literally goes into GameStop stores to get his information. Read this:https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kh9na8/gme_4q20_financial_model/ - horny131313
RC Ventures LLC gets more than one seat on the board.
RC Ventures LLC begins a hostile takeover.
On top of its increasing stake, Ryan is supported by both a lot of small and now large investors too.
Moreover “there is a decent amount of evidence that Ryan Cohen spent the summer of 2020 hiring a badass lawyer and crafting a pretty solid plan to wrest control of a struggling Mall-based gaming retailer from its out of touch Boomer Board and CEO so he can turn it into an ecommerce juggernaut like his baby Chewy. the attorney listed on each of the 13Ds filed by RC Ventures. [...] Chris Davis, Activist Attorney Extraordinaire and His Successful Use of the Consent Solicitation to Remove Dipshit Boards/CEOs” - CPTHubbard.
Moody's Upgrades GameStop's credit rating a second time in a row
Hoping for a PR soon confirming the recent redemption of the 2021 notes. Potential credit upgrade from Moodys could come now that GME has officially redeemed 63% of their 2021 notes. If we don't get that now, we should get it in March when the entirety of the 2021 notes are retired. Debt considered investment grade and not junk is a big positive and one most overlook. - Stonksflyingup
Short sellers close a part of their position huge short position.
A major hedge fund takes a significant position on GME.
Dividend reintroduction.
3.2 Downside Risks
New short sellers open a position and current ones scale up theirs.
Momentum towards profitability dies out and the company goes bankrupt.
Honestly if you read this far you know this is extremely unlikely.
It is very unlikely for the shorts to continue to short the company especially when its credit rating is being upgraded - we will see if it keeps getting upgraded or not in March.
If the shorts get to short it more (or new short sellers open a position) it will:
Drive the stock price down (lower market cap), drive the short ratio higher making the unwinding of the short sellers even harder and as a result making the probability to have a short-squeeze VERY BIG if good events happen moving forward.
Push Ryan Cohen to accelerate its plans.
I will personally increase my share-position if it happens.
Conclusion
4.1 Prices Targets
Here is a summary of my post: When the short % of free float went from a high point (~160%) at around February 2020 to a low point (~140%) - which by the way are in absolute terms both huge numbers- the stock went up ~94% BUT most of the gain took place at 2 key moments: at the recovery of the market crash and then in late August which shows that 💎🙌-ing is key to capture most of the gains. Figure 13: GME returns from 3 Feb. 2020 to 1 Sept. 2020 Why do I say this? Because when holding the stock you could “feel” like you bled when you watch the stats:
Positive daily returns
Negative daily returns
49.3 %
50.7 %
But IT WAS IN FACT THE SHORT SELLERS WHO BLED HARD:
Best daily return
Worst daily return
23.0 %
-13.7 %
Imagine you sold GME when the -13.7% happened. You would not have captured the 94% returns. So just 💎🙌 and let those shorts go bankrupt. Table 8: PTs.
4.2 Valuations
“Wallstreetbets - GME 4Q20 Financial Model 🚀 🚀 🚀.” Reddit, www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kh9na8/gme_4q20_financial_model/. “GameStop Rips Higher as Hedgeye Pitches the Long Side of the Trade.” SeekingAlpha, 23 Dec. 2020, seekingalpha.com/news/3647009-gamestop-rips-higher-hedgeye-pitches-long-side-of-trade. Thanks for reading.
$GME DD- Fundamentals: Why WSB Just Bought a Value Stock.
I saw u/Unlucky-Prize post about the technical factors for $GME and felt inspired to make a post about the reasons why I‘m long this stock, which is the fundamentals. I don’t do options or techincal analysis so please refer to other posts for that info. $GME had been on my radar for quite some time but I finally dipped my toes in two weeks ago. The basis for that wasn’t the potential for a short squeeze or short interest but the underlying fundamentals behind $GME. I had posted a long comment in a previous thread and will expand on that to explain why I’m bullish long term for $GME. I hope this helps. This post is meant to be a personal opinion and not advice to buy or sell Gamestop. 🐻 Case:
Digital sales will make Gamestop the next Blockbuster.
The digital game sales argument, like all 🐻 arguments, are weak. The shift to digital will possibly occur in the next console cycle. So maybe the 🐻 are right, but they’re right in 8 years which means they’re wrong now. Additionally digital sales growth has decelerated and are returning to pre-covid levels as more people go back to stores. This trend should continue if the pandemic improves. Additionally game publishers don’t care about the fractionally larger margins from selling digital direct. They only care about moving as many units as quickly as possible. If they could sell the games on floppy disks they would. Go read the public filings for any game publisher and they will tell you that they only care about selling what customers want and guess what, they still want physical. Blockbuster died because Carl Icahn got involved, killed Blockbuster’s attempt to pivot to a Netflix model by offering an online rental service and Blockbuster’s old business model relied on late fees. Icahn insisted that Blockbuster's greatest asset was its physical location and late fees, killed the pivot and forced them to triple down on their old strategy. Carl ended up losing 98% of his investment in Blockbuster. There continues to be demand for physical movie rentals as evidenced by Red Box locations and Netflix still has a few million dvd by mail subscribers. Gamestop has also recently started to pivot away from software sales into other areas and now software sales now make up large minority of Gamestop's total sales. They're pivoting more towards physical goods and not just Funko Pops but also plan to expand more into new areas like PC gaming and hardware. Everyone knows that they signed a revenue agreement with Microsoft where Gamestop will get a cut of the lifetime revenue from Xbox Game Pass Ultimate. This shouldn't sour the relationship with Sony or Nintendo. If anything, Sony and Nintendo should be compelled to offer a similar revenue share agreement because Gamestop will inevitably push Microsoft products if Gamestop stand to profit more from it. This will be a bigger deal in later years as console availability increases and consumers actually deciding to cross shop consoles as opposed to getting whichever new one is available right now. Sony and Nintendo won't stop selling products through Gamestop because of this agreement with Microsoft, it's too large of a sales channel to give up.
Gamestop will go bankrupt
This is highly unlikely to happen. Gamestop managed to survive the single worst brick and mortar retail sales environment in modern history and ended the year with a cash surplus of a few hundred million. Now its the new year and the beginning of a new console cycle. This console cycle should last as long as the previous ones which is close to a decade, plus or minus a few years. During that time, they will be printing money hand over fist selling consoles, new games, used games, accessories, protection plans, etc.
Brick and mortar retail is dead. Gamestop locations are shutting down left and right, this must mean they're going bankrupt.
Gamestop's average lease durations are actually quite short. A lot of brick and mortar shops have lease duration lasting a decade but the average lease duration for Gamestop is just 2-4 years. This allows them to close underperforming stores and open new ones very quickly. Gamestop's saw e-commerce grow by 250% last quarter. The company has been and continues to pivot towards a "digital-first, omni-channel ecosystem for games and entertainment" 🐂 Case This MOASS could be long and protracted like Tesla in all of 2020 as many continue to bet against Gamestop, instead of a sharp spike like Volkswagen, where Porsche played a large role in spiking the share price. Keep in mind that at 1x sales, the share price should be $80-100. Compare that with another retailer Chewy, which has a p/s of 6-7x. Pet products also has a much lower TAM than gaming. This isn’t even factoring in a complete turnaround that RC has to be planning. Look at the newest board composition. Newest members are Reggie (my body is ready), the head of cloud 9 esports, and the current president Petsmart and Chewy. board member. Ask yourself, are these the people that would join the board of a company that is expected to die in 5 years due to digital game sales. This has moved beyond a short squeeze yolo to a long term hold. If RC succeeds in transforming this into the next Chewy, you’re looking at a 20x multiple. This is based on fundamentals and industry tailwinds. I added 10k shares weeks ago and added 20k shares at $38 because this thing is going much higher and idgaf about a few bucks in share price right now. Also don’t attempt to time the market because you could be left behind at the launchpad. Simply put, if I told you there was a business that served a $200 billion total addressable market with very discerning and loyal customers with a lot of disposable income to spend on this market. They have over 5,000 retail locations all across the world. Last quarter, they saw Ecommerce grow by nearly 300% and ended a year where many other brick and mortar retailers went bankrupt with hundreds of millions of dollars in extra cash. This company has a database called PowerUp consisting of tens of millions of customers that pay them a yearly premium membership. They're starting a multiyear pivot into several new growing areas and have new board members that are industry leaders in each of those respective areas at the start of a new product launch cycle that will last a decade. A young visionary founder who made his billions by creating a customer centric experience that defeated Amazon, who is well known to focus on one idea to the point of obsession, just became this company's largest shareholder and now controls the board. I tell you this company trades at .5 sales. Would you short or long this company? TLDR: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 But not because of the MOASS. Edit: I forgot I had 5000 shares in my YOLO account so position is actually 35,000 GME
Why would Gamestop (GME) succeed in selling games online?
Gamestop's business model back in the days was to sell games in brick and mortar shops. This worked well for Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo because they didn't have to deal with running a retail business; it was cost effective to just give a cut to GME. The gaming console companies were effectively paying Gamestop for the service of running stores to sell their games. In the digital world however, why would someone buy games from Gamestop when they could just buy it on the Playstation Store or the Nintendo eShop? I don't know a single person who buys iOS apps outside the Apple App Store. I don't know a single person who buys Android apps outside the Play Store. What's Gamestop's moat here? Why wouldn't Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo cut out the middle man that's Gamestop? If someone can seriously address these concerns, I'll put in 100k into GME shares and join the squeeze with a screenshot.
For all the 🌈🐻 s saying GameStop (GME) will go bankrupt due to gaming moving away from physical discs to digital sales, Daddy Ryan has already thought of this
We all know that the 🌈🐻s are calling GameStop (GME) blockbuster because the gaming industry is going digital away from physical discs, etc. However, these peak autistic retards (and not in the good way) think that our lord and savior Daddy Ryan (RC) has not addressed this issue. RC has indeed addressed this problem. In fact, that's where the greatest opportunity lies. First off, let me start with some speculation on where RC will be taking GME. There's a lot of speculation that GME will now become the Amazon of the gaming world as the one stop shop for all things gaming. Even if GME is unable to capture gaming sales due to the transition to digital sales, GME is still massively undervalued. GME's collectible business alone generated 737M in 2019. Fucking action figures and shit. GME's market cap is roughly 1.35B. Theoretically, GME running solely an online collectibles business would be undervalued right now. Don't forget, these 🌈🐻s are betting on bankruptcy, ie the stock going to 0. GME just needs to produce a sustainable business model to beat the shorts. Not only that, there's always going to be gaming hardware and supplies sales like consoles, controllers, headsets, gaming chairs. GME also sells TVs, monitors, gaming PCs, etc. From the holiday sales update, we saw GME's E-Commerce sales are up over 300% and now account for 34% of company sales. This is exactly what RC is looking for. GME is already involved in the digital sales business by selling digital games, digital subscriptions, digital gift cards, etc. If GME were to truly becoming a one stop shop for gaming, people would use GME instead of buying directly through their console or PC because while they shop for PS/Xbox games using GME, they can also shop for games for their PC, all while buying gift cards for their friends or purchasing gaming subscriptions like PlayStation Plus. But here's the real reason why people will use GME for purchasing digital games. Online trade-ins. Say it with me, you beautiful retard. Online trade-ins. In RC's open letter to the board, he wrote: " Significantly upgrading e-commerce can provide for greater revenue capture across larger gaming catalogs, digital content and community experiences, online trade-ins, streaming services and Esports. " https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/RC_Ventures_Letter_to_GameStop.pdf GME's highest margin revenue stream is physical disc trade-ins. However, if GME is able to create a digital ecosystem where its customers buy all their digital games through GME across all platforms (PC, PS, Xbox, etc), they would be able to trade in their digital games for store credit to buy new digital games. For example, if someone trades in a digital PS5 game, they could use that store credit to buy a PC game. This would keep customers coming back for the same reason people go back to GME today. Furthermore, RC addresses the move towards digital by specifically pointing out "digital content and community experiences" and "streaming services and Esports". Daddy Ryan is here to transform GME, not just make what it's currently doing better. Positions: 2000 shares at 18.64 (1300 purchased this morning after RC news), 1 LEAP ($25 strike, Jan 2023) - all positions purchased on margin like a true degenerate retard 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 TLDR: GME creates an online platform for customers to buy all their games digitally across all platforms (PC, PS5, Xbox, etc) and RC plans on giving customers online trade-ins for store credit to buy new digital games to keep them coming back.
GME Short Squeeze What Comes Next Part 3 Hello all, Before I begin I would like to address something I have been encountering on my posts in the comments section. I keep receiving some hate concerning my opinions and I want to be crystal clear that they are just that; opinions. I also want everyone to know that is is meant to be a dialog. I am not trying to pump this stock because truthfully, this goes far beyond us retail investors at this point. What I want is a dialog between all sides to examine this truly fascinating phenomenon that is occurring. I would also like to clarify something, I am not a bagholder. I do currently hold bags because I own 336 shares at a $194.34 cost basis, however, that total amount is house money that was used from my profits on the first go around. I also understand some people are tired of hearing about this because it's the same regurgitated form of someone else's post as it keeps circulating in an attempt to retain hype and drive future buying; this is not what this post is about. As investors and individuals involved in the world of finance, this situation should absolutely intrigue us whether or not we are involved. I am here to present my logic on the situation but encourage healthy discussion and debate. This brings me to my first claim. This is not over. Now, I am not claiming that a squeeze will still occur, I am simply claiming it is not over, for better or for worse. Several things need to take place for this to be completely over, at which point I will either post my gains or my losses from the adventure. When I say "it" I am referring to this entire phenomenon, not one short squeeze. I do not think these events, "it", is over. This is largely due to retail and institutional purchasing not really changing all that much since we found the bottom and established support at a staggering $60. This support was lost today and found new support at $50. There was very interesting ATH action and I'm not sure what to make of it. Millions of bag holders (not just WSB) are still holding and in fact, averaging down, thereby purchasing more. These same bag holders are absolutely refusing to sell for such massive losses and in turn are becoming long term investors on the stock if another squeeze isn't to occur. People are picking up speculative positions in the off-chance of another squeeze. Others are determining this as a fair value for the company, not fundamentally, but based on the future prospects of Ryan Cohen and team. Finally, it is nowhere near leaving the global stage with important upcoming dates that we will discuss later. To examine why it isn't over let's look at both sides of the argument:
Bulls claim it's not over for many reasons that you can find in the hundreds of other bullish posts, so I won't bore you with those details. My argument on the bull side is more along the lines of what I listed above.
Bears claim it is over because there was a 2250% price increase over the course of two weeks, therefore this must be a short squeeze.
I think we can all agree, bear or bull, that something happened. A 2250% increase certainly isn't nothing. The question is...what? I see several possibilities and would like to discuss them in the comments.
The shorts in fact covered and this was a short squeeze.
The shorts partially covered and this was a partial short squeeze, but the price increase was mainly hype and gamma squeezes.
The shorts didn't cover anything and this was a globally hyped price increase in conjunction with several gamma squeezes.
Some combination of the above 3.
First, the data: Based on morningstar the short interest is showing 78.46%. Now, I think the website is having some issues storing cookies because it will show the outdated 226% unless you open it up in incognito. Market watch is showing 41.95% This spread is interesting for sure, my thoughts are some of these calculations are including "synthetic longs" introduced by S3. It is extremely possible to manipulate these numbers via illegal methods and even legal methods using options. Please see this SEC document to explain how this would work. I am not trying to convince anyone to fit my narrative, but these things occur far more commonly than one would expect. The reasoning is because the fines for committing the crime are far less costly than letting the event take place. Please see FINRA's website for the long, and frequent list of fines being dealt out due to manipulation. A common culprit? Lying about short volume. Let's use the absolute worst case scenario being reported of 41.95%, which mind you is still extremely high for one stock: The shorts in fact covered and this was a short squeeze What's interesting here is even if the shorts 100% covered all of their positions, they very well could have shorted on the way back down. Why wouldn't you? It would be insane to not open a short position when this hit nearly $500 especially if you lost half of your companies money; what better way to get it back? For the remainder of this thesis, I will be assuming that some of the short positions that exist are newly opened positions at a higher price unless someone has a counter-claim as to why that wouldn't be possible/probable. That would mean 226% was covered on the way up and another 41.95% was reopened on the way back down. Based on the volume and price changes throughout the past two weeks this simply doesn't pass the math check. The shorts partially covered and this was a partial short squeeze. Again, using 41.95% this is highly likely and the most reasonable case. Some, probably the worst positions, were covered on the way up. I think this is precisely what happened, we had some partial shorts covering but for the most part it was gamma squeezes, hype, and FOMO whereby the price started climbing so rapidly it became smarter for the shorts to just wait out the bubble than to actually cover all of their positions. Again, we fall into a "what-if" scenario regarding shorting on the way back down. The shorts didn't cover anything and this was a globally hyped price increase in conjunction with several gamma squeezes. This scenario does not pass the math check using the 41.95% figure. If the data is being manipulated then this becomes very interesting because if some of the worst positions are still open then that means all of these HF's losses that were reported were strictly interest and they are simply waiting this out for as long as it takes making back their losses on their newly opened short positions in t $300-$400 range. Sadly, this puts us in the guessing range yet again. We can do the math and see it's possible this scenario exists, however, we would be comparing it against losses reported by the entities that were being squeezed. There are way to many what-if's for me to me consider this a possibility, but I can't write it off completely. Some combination of the above 3. Truthfully, this isn't worth examining just yet. There would be far to many "what-if's" to address, this is something that could be address at the later dates that we will get to shortly. Now, I've heard it a lot regarding the 02/09 data. "It's two weeks old". Well, that is always the case. The FINRA short data is always two weeks old and suggesting that we can't pull any information from it at all is asinine. Where it gets quite murky, is the data includes 01/27 information. This was a day unlike any other in this saga. I will take this moment to address the following upcoming catalysts and when I truly think this will be done; one way or the other. Today's data 02/09, was very important because if it showed an extremely low percentage then we know shorts have exited and did not re-enter and this is completely done. Given the data does not reflect that, we now must turn to several events that could act as catalysts for either a further squeeze or a complete shutdown. 02/19 - In my last post, I discussed the Failure To Deliver (FTD) conundrum. I do need some help figuring out the exact expiration date. From here "The close-out requirement states that a participant of a clearing agency needs to take immediate action to close 4 out a fail to deliver position in a threshold security that has persisted for 13 consecutive settlement days by purchasing securities of like kind and quantity." The exact date is slightly irrelevant because I highly doubt all of these FTD's are going to deliver on the same exact day. This site, while it isn't an official channel seems to be doing a good job of tracking data. If you want to learn more about FTD's and the implications there please visit that site or review my last post which has links to follow for further reading. 02/18 - Keith Gill aka u/DeepFuckingValue will testify before congress and RH CEO Vladimir will be attending. This can go several ways which can lead to an SEC trading halt on GameStop or with evidence that proves foul play occurred. Who knows? It will certainly be interesting and I don't even to speculate on the market reaction to this even because it could go a ton of different ways; it will be an important date nonetheless 02/24 - The next FINRA short interest information will be made readily available to the public. This will be far more interesting and helpful information because it won't include the insane volatility of January, but it will also highlight the newest short positions. This data will help further drive where I think this is all going to end. It's possible that shorts opened new positions at $50 thinking it was going back to $12. Let's not speculate too much here either, it's just another dataset that will bring light to the direction this is headed. 03/25 - GameStop ER. This is big too for several reasons. First, this will include the console sales cycle which historically has done well for GameStop. A typical buy the hype, sell the news event. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts leading up to this ER, maybe people won't even touch GME leading up to then due to the recent volatility, but if they do, and if there is still a lot of short interest, this too could force shorts to begin covering. Another critical part of this ER is Ryan Cohen. This will be the first time this new board addresses the public with their plans for the future and for the first time since this entire adventure began, the "dying brick and mortar" narrative will finally begin to change in the public eye. That is still the common misconception regarding GameStop, that it is a dying brick and mortar retailer where nothing has changed. This hasn't been the case for around 6 months now, but this will be the first time it is publicly address. The headlines surrounding GameStop's future plans will be very interesting to read and the markets reaction will be far more interesting. I have been asked a lot what my PT is and when I expect the squeeze to happen, but let me be clear. Very seldom do squeezes "just happen". In fact, short squeezes are far more common than one would think, they just typically happen over months, if not years and the shorts cover on dips so you don't even notice it's happening. In order to force a squeeze, you need to hold a decent amount of shorts underwater. Soon one will crack and start closing their position, this leads to a series of shorts closing their positions skyrocketing the price until more and more shorts need to cover. This is rare. I hope this narrative of purchasing heavily shorted companies comes to a close soon because a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money simply buying up companies because they are heavily bet against. Catalysts and massive changes need to occur like overhauling your entire business as is the case with GameStop. Normally, shorts will close their positions one at a time, covering on dips and you don't even notice it's happening. In times where you see a price rise of seemingly no news could very well be shorts closing their positions because their research led them to realize this company is on the road to recovery. I digress. Given the most recent data and the multiple upcoming catalysts I am still very bullish on a GME short squeeze. My post from quite some time ago illustrated the importance of catalysts regarding a short squeeze, this is still very much the case. The first run was interrupted and the second run won't happen with magic, it requires a catalyst. Another post was titled For those who do not understand the inevitable GME short squeeze, was at the time "inevitable" because math. That is no longer the case. It is no longer inevitable but it is still possible. I want to be clear: This is not nearly as close to a sure thing as it once was and it depends on a lot of different factors. One of the largest is the people. Granted, a lot of what's happening now is in the hands of institutions but millions of retailers holding their positions to the grave certainly helps the institutional buyers have more faith in their play to continue a squeeze. SO WHAT DO I THINK I think shorts certainly covered some of their positions, but not all. I also firmly believe a significant amount of short positions were opened on the way back down by both HF's and individuals. Some certainly positioned high, but based on sentiment, it appears a lot of people think GME is fairly valued around $20 (which I disagree with but let's use that for the time being). That would mean shorts would have no problem opening positions at 100,70,60, even $50. 42% is still very high which means a squeeze is inevitable so long as the company continues in a positive path. However, squeezes typically aren't as abrupt as people think. They are actually quite common, in fact another position I'm heavily invested in is SPCE and they have been going through a squeeze for several weeks and will continue to squeeze so long as news continues to be positive. How would we get an abrupt short squeeze? A massive bull run. The new shorts that entered at lower levels wouldn't be too hard to catch, however, they are probably low volume, so when they buy to close, it won't be large enough volumes for massive peaks, but a bull run very well could lead to these lower tiered shorts closing, triggering a gamma squeeze. If gamma squeezes are made week over week then shorts at the higher end would have two options:
Close early and take profits
Wait it out because they are positioned so well that interest means nothing and they don't think there is any hope of us rising to those levels.
In the first case, them closing early would be a nice short squeeze to probably several hundred dollars, but it wouldn't break $1000. To break $1000 we would need a big bull run to catch the shorts, trigger gamma squeezes, and keep momentum until they are caught and underwater. This is highly unlikely unless there is another global sentiment. NOTE: ALL OF THESE ASSUMPTIONS I AM MAKING ARE BASED ON THE 42% REPORTING. IF IT IS IN FACT 78% THEN THE POSSIBILITY IS TREMENDOUSLY INCREASED FOR THESE THINGS TO HAPPEN. SO WHEN DOES IT ALL END My though is if by the end of March these catalysts were not enough to reignite the hype and squeeze, then it will essentially be over except in the case of a few circumstances:
A VW/Porche moment occurs where a large buyer picks up a large portion of the company.
Some other currently unknown catalyst appears seemingly out of thin air
The data was in fact manipulated. Regardless of what the data says, if the shorts did in fact lie about their short int to take the fine over being squeezed, then they will be squeezed regardless.
It is quite possible, that these catalysts and moments aren't enough to force a squeeze anymore especially if the shorts have repositioned really well. I will retain the mindset that this fateful January 2021 was not a short squeeze. However, that does not mean it will ever actually happen. SO WHAT IS YOUR PLAY HOOMAN? Well, I am long on GME which is why I didn't mind hopping back in even at outrageous prices. I will continue averaging down and don't plan on selling for quite some time, probably several years. The reason for this is I believe in Cohen and his team to turn this into something unexpected and I imagine an eventual ROI. Once this is all said and done and I think either the shorts truly have covered or they simply got away with it (Beginning of April), I will be posting my DD for GME as a long play regardless of the squeeze mechanics. Thank you all for joining me on this wild journey. I hope we can discuss some of these points in the comments like adults and truly try to grasp this wild situation we are all in. There are extremes on both sides from "get over it, the squeeze happened" to a cult like mentality on the other extreme. I hope through discussion we can find the moderate approach and further understand the market mechanics at play. Thanks for your time WARNING: Until the squeeze business is over for good, this is a very volatile and risky play. Joining now for the hope of a potential round 2 squeeze should only be done in a speculative manner with money you are willing to lose. This is more akin to a gamble than it is investing. I think the current market price is fair given the future prospects of the company but do your own DD, I will not be releasing any until this squeeze is put to rest. TL;DR: I am still bullish on this scenario even at 42%, if it really is 78% then I am extremely bullish. There are a plethora of upcoming catalysts that could reignite the squeeze but even if none are powerful enough, with Cohen's new direction we could expect good news for quite some time forcing shorts to exit on a more spread out timeline. Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. I do not wish to sway your opinion in either direction. I simply seek to examine this interesting and volatile situation via crowd sourcing. What you do with your money is entirely up to you.
Been in on GME since it was $12 a share. Here's why I think today is a good buy opportunity
First of all I would like to explain my current position and how I've played this stock so far. After getting burned on call options in early december i decided to just go with shares. I doubled down after hearing the news that Cohen increased his stake to 13%. My average cost was $17. My price target was $75 so I cut my position in half there, and took some additional profits above $150. I'm still holding 5 shares though and I just bought more around $75. $75 is fair value before the media hype came. Now with all the enthusiasm around this company I can see $150 being a good value. And possibly higher than that when they report sky high earnings next month. Anyway, now that this thing is at down to earth levels, we can begin discussing the actual business, not just the share price. So here is a list of bullish factors that could push this thing up: 1.) New consoles. Gamestop wasn't supposed to still be alive by this point. The very fact they are still alive with a big retail footprint will ensure they at least stay alive for awhile. Also, there was speculation that the new consoles would not have disk drives, but the new Xbox will has a disk drive, and there are diskdrives on ps5s as well (although they also make a model without a disk drive) 2.) Deal with Microsoft The gist of the deal is that they will receive 5% of the revenue from sales on the Microsoft store on every Xbox sold by Gamestop. It's a gimmick by Microsoft to incentivize them to drum up more sales. The fact these consoles are flying off the shelves faster than they can be stocked means that the impact of the Microsoft deal will be as big as possible. It will be a great digital revenue stream for the company going forward. 3.) Lockdowns turbo charging popularity of gaming. With people stuck at home with nothing to do, more people are playing video games than ever before. And despite the rise in digital downloads, a lot of people still like to have a physical copy. 4.) $800million cash on the books You can see why most of the heavily shorted stocks on the market are shorted as much as they are. Usually these companies are ass deep in debt and on the verge of bankruptcy. This is not the case with Gamestop. They have $800million on the books and they already payed off a large chunk of their debt early. They could literally do stock buybacks and shorten the supply even further. In fact last ER when asked if they would do more buybacks the Ceo said "it's not off the table." 5.) $100million shelf offering Now I was pissed off about this at the time slightly because it caused my calls to go to hell but in hindsight this was a 4d chess move. They filed for a $100m shelf offering back in early December. This allows them to sell $100m worth of shares whenever they'd like. So since this little squeezeroo happened here, that's like a drop in the hat. It would probably barely move the stock. Anyway, they probably don't need to do this unless they are planning something big, but either way it gives them more finance options going forward. 6.) Ryan Cohen Ryan Cohen has upped his stake in Gamestop to over 13%. They reached an agreement, and now Ryan Cohen and several of the other former Chewy executives are on the board. Chewy, the company that Cohen cofounded, is an wildly successful online pet supply store that took on Amazon head to head and won. They got bought out by Petsmart and currently have a market cap of $42billion. If Cohen and friends can turn the company around, there is a path to $1,000 a share being a fair value. I mean, we'll see what happens, but there is a path. 7.) Media hype This has to be the first time I can remember Gamestop actually getting some positive PR. The widespread media coverage is like a free $hundred million marketing campaign. A lot of people probably thought of Gamestop as the shitty company that gave you bad deals on games. But now the narrative has been reframed. I think a lot of people are seeing them as the underdog, the struggling company getting pissed and spat on by wallstreet billionaires. And to a lot of people Gamestop kind of represents more than just a "next blockbuster." The hedgefunds tearing down gamestop is like them tearing down a piece of our childhood. I don't know about you, but I still love going and buying old games at gamestop once in awhile. Although certain things I don't have much of a choice on, I try to give them as much business as possible. Edit: Additional factors to keep in mind: 1.) At the end of 2018, the company bought back 37% of the existing shares on the market. I would have to do a deeper dive to see what the market cap has been over time. But essentially, $75 in todays shares is a drop in the hat. Sure it hasn't been this high since 2007, but there also wasn't a share shortage in 07. This is what makes the company such a unique play. I think it was around that time when u/deepfuckingvalue got involved. This is a big reason the shorts are having a hard time covering. Edit 2: 🏳️🌈🐻🤡's please fuck off with your FUD bullshit. HOLD!
In my 28 years of Gaming Experiences... Cyberpunk 2077 is by far the most unbalanced gaming experience I've had to date.
Hi all, I feel like it's time to share my opinions and thoughts after letting this subreddit cooldown for sometime. Around February of last year, I began work on a massive passion project developing https://NETRUNNER2077.net after following this title and being a massive fan of CD Projekt Red from the original Witcher title. When they announced Cyberpunk 2077 would be their next IP I was immensely excited as I'm a huge Cyberpunk genre nerd in all forms from art, movies, anime, philosophies, books, cultural significance and relation, aesthetics and more. So having my all time favorite game company work on a huge open world Cyberpunk "RPG" instantly generated immediate interest. Now where to even begin? Please note, I've yet to purposely "finish" Cyberpunk 2077 in hopes of CD Projekt Red making a strong come back later on in the future, and hopes that they'll eventually release a REDKit for modders in order to create some incredible work and help flesh the game world out. I have put around close to 200 hours into Cyberpunk 2077 exploring the different Life Paths and their effects on the world. Lots of walking, No fast travel and tons of time lost in an attempt to "Immerse" myself in the experience. I refused to finish Cyberpunk 2077's Main Story for several reasons. The largest being I'm typically against playing titles that are obviously not complete. On top of that, I've invested so much time and effort into researching, designing, learning web design and working towards building an awesome platform in order to properly cover Cyberpunk 2077 with a safe bet of thinking "This couldn't possibly be bad" only to coming around to reality very shortly after and that this title truly needed ATLEAST another year of development time. There are aspects of Cyberpunk 2077 that are, in my opinion, worthy of putting it in the all time legendary category of games. Then.. other parts that make games from even 20 years ago look superior. It's a very "unbalanced" experience. So much that it takes the top spot for me personally. My experience of Cyberpunk 2077 is that it feels unfinished and some what rushed in many areas, if that isn't obvious enough already. But the thing is, as many of you probably already know, it just isn't bugs. Features, Content, Weapons, Immersive Elements, AI, RPG Elements and Game Design Systems are flat out missing or just straight up broken entirely. Here are just a few of the elements that I have a problem with personally..
Weapon Balance - Many weapons are straight up overpowered and unbalanced and easy to find early in the game.
Weapon Variety - CD Projekt Red claimed that the game would have a large variety of weapons - this ended up not being the case with a few showcased weapons not implemented in the game itself although they exist in the game files. Also to note most "Iconic" weapons are just a reskin.
Cyberware Balance & Variety - Same thing as above can also account for Cyberware. Outside of Cyber Arm implants, which has its own bulletin
Very Hard Difficulty - Feels like a joke when compared to a lot titles out there. This is coming from someone who chose Style over Substance in all three playthroughs, typically never using a Jacket, Helmet or Mask. I'm no means great at games. This doesn't help with the extremely bugged out AI.
Perk Balance and Design - All around, most perks feel unrewarding and feel vastly unbalanced, once again making it pretty easy to feel overpowered pretty quickly early on, especially if you end up going down the Quickhacking Sub Skill Tree.
Pedestrian, Water and Car Damage Physics / Collision needs a serious second look - Water as of Patch 1.1 is still a pretty much nothing more than a transparent texture.. fire a bullet, a person, hell.. a fucking car and there is not a single pinch of reaction from that what so ever. The collision from bullets, other cars, people and objects is just bad for a 2020 game.
UI - I'm usually not one to complain about an unintuitive UI but it's quite clunky that takes some time to get around and use to.
Artificial Intelligence - It's either extremely bugged or just barely there. It's very bare bones in EVERY NON SCRIPTED aspect of the game. This has already been covered a thousand times so there's no need to go deep into detail with this. Vehicles, Police, Pedestrians, Etc.
Lack of Immersive Elements - One of CD Projekt Red biggest selling points for many fans was making it sound like there would be many ways to Immerse yourself in Cyberpunk 2077. That is not the case outside of World Design, World Building and Story Telling. It's really hard to actually "Immersive yourself and Roleplay" You can't sit at a bar and grab a drink in real time. You can't grab food anytime you like and eat in real time, the few vendors there are in the game completely rip you out of the game world and into a standard UI vendor menu. Installing Cyberware is just a click of a button in a menu after the initially Eye and hand implant, There's bare minimum interactivity with NPC's or the world itself for that matter, Not a single soul uses an umbrella that I've witnessed when it rains in Night City, There's little to no sense in danger outside of the repetitive Gang hotspots... the list could go on and on with this one.
90% of the choices you make during Cyberpunk 2077 feel like they have little to no consequence - While it's true that there are SOME choices you make in this game change certain outcomes (For the most part - the end of the game as reported by many) It feels like a very bare bones system that doesn't seem fleshed out at all. The majority of the time you're only given the "Illusion of Choice" This was very disappointing to witness. Life path decisions feel utterly meaningless later on down the road.
Side Quests are typically very short when compared to Witcher 3 - On top of that, there are a handful of stunning Side quests but it was very disappointing when a large majority of them lasted around 5-10 minutes at most. If you're looking for another Baron equivalent quest line.. It ain't here chief.
The Main Quest is far too short for a game that attempts to coin itself as being "RPG" - Regardless of not finishing, its pretty obvious that you do a small handful of Main Story Quests (Outside of the Optional ones) and you've reached the end.
Life Paths do not largely impact your overall experience and the way the game and story unfolds - Outside of the VERY beginning of the game, which can roughly take around 10 to 20 minutes to do.. and maybe a single quest depending on your lifepath, They ended up being extremely disappointing. You really aren't missing out on doing multiple life paths as you can basically "choose" your ending at the epilogue of the game and just restart from a save and make a different decision to see different outs. AKA making all the decisions you made throughout the game feel meaningless because in the end, its only what you choose during the epilogue that really matters.
A Second Note on Life Paths and Dialogue Impacting Secondary and Third Playthroughs - Very few side main quests can make a small difference by the end and there is no tension build up for your dialogue options that will lead to consequences that make you afraid of your choices later down the story.
What the hell happened to Meredith Stout? - If you went down the route of siding with Meredith Stout during the Maelstrom Mission and have followed Cyberpunk 2077 for some time you were probably completely thrown off as to how cut off that whole "follow up" went down. Very disappointing.
Dynamic Vehicle Chases / Fights are not a thing and were removed from the game - The one Scav chase in the beginning of the game is scripted.. and that's about it, hell.. you can just sit in the vehicle and watch it crash into the wall without doing a single thing. What the hell? Sorry guys, If you choose to mess with gangs.. they're not going to hunt you down, they aren't going to mow you down while you're in your vehicle. It was all bullshit.
Gangs / Corps will ignore the actions you take against their gang / corp and there are no repercussions for your actions against them at any point in the game - This goes with the one above, but I figured I'd expand on it more. Remember when we thought siding with Maelstrom would cause dire consequences in the long run with Meredith and Militech? Guess what? it definitely isn't a thing. You can go about your business in Night City and not have to worry about that for a split second your entire playthrough, no matter who you decide to fuck over.
Side Gigs are typically just filler content - Very little variety and the only way to really extend your playtime if you choose to not walk the streets of a dead feeling night city attempting to immerse yourself in the world. Which is totally okay if there were also other things to do, but for the most part its just generic Ubisoft tier filler content. There are a very SMALL amount of unique ones with actual dialogue.
Netrunner Enemy Types - The worst they do is upload a low quality damage hack and that's it. Half the time they scan your location and nothing happens. No cool shit like having to tap a button repeatedly to stop you from pulling the trigger on yourself after being hacked.
Pacifica is obviously unfinished - Well, it's not hard to tell that Pacifica wasn't complete after the game came out, I fully know the lore behind what happened to Pacifica, but I don't see how it's acceptable that there are literally unfinished areas from game development.
MAX-TAC and Trauma Team were epic during the early Scav Hideout mission, but that's it - Not much else to say here other than they had some really cool "scripted" events during and after that mission.. but other than that you'll see Trauma Team with their ships in the same exact spots you find them and MAX-TAC basically just spawn in as higher tier cops when your wanted level is high enough.
Cyberpsycho Quest line was a missed opportunity - Quite a disappointing quest after tracking down 17 Cyberpsychos regardless if you choose to let them live or kill them. They could of gone deep into some gritty cyberpunk writing and mystery with this but their approach to this was pretty underwhelming and surface level with no depth other than some logs you find, but this can be said about MANY of the quests during the game.
Collecting Cars is just more checkmark optional filler - Hey? Want another vehicle? Let me flood your quest list and phone letting you know you can GPS right to the location and pick it up. Outside of the few hidden vehicles in the game, Collecting cars was pretty disappointing. You literally walk up to location and buy them, no interactivity with NPC's, just click and buy. Might as well of just given a option to have the vehicle self deliver to the non existent garage where all my other cars reside right?
The Garage outside your Megabuilding serves no purpose and doesn't store your vehicles - Can't find your vehicles there now can you? Yeah..
The 6 Month Montage felt like a giant slap in the face, quite possibly cut missions from early game and is the exact SAME no matter what life path you choose - Going down any life path will grant you the exact same Street Kid themed montage. It really feels like these were cut missions that would of fleshed Jackie Welles as a character out so much better.
Cyberpunk 2077 feels more like a decent "Action Adventure" Game rather than a true "RPG" - Not too hard to see this. While it has RPG elements and Dialogue, it's definitely not on the level of Dues Ex, Vampire Bloodlines, Divinity, Elder Scrolls, Fallout (3 & NV). After you exit the prologue it is all downhill after that.
There isn't much to find and see outside of map markers - While there are a handful of secrets, schematics and weapons it doesn't feel very rewarding when finding these things because of how the weapon, items, currency and game design elements were implemented where things are either easily replaced or you're already easily overpowered as it is.
Cyberpunk tries to be too many things and falls short of most of them - With the Ambitious goals, talk and promises.. The one thing I hoped it would be was a truly Ambitious RPG with some really good Immersive elements. I definitely wasn't expecting the world, but it's just sad as to how many elements it falls flat on.
Black Market Cyberware isn't a thing - You see those four options you have for Cyber arms? Yep, That's it. Nothing else, Everything shown through trailers is what you get.
Brain Dance was a MASSIVE missed opportunity - It's pretty obvious that there was at one time far more to brain dance outside of story missions. Hell, it could of found a way to replace the Gwent Mini Game, but alas - In the end it was used for only story missions and not a single side experience on its own.
Night City just feels like a extremely gorgeous backdrop to a Somewhat Linear story - I've already covered several reasons as to why I feel this way.
It feels more like "Johnny's Story" rather than V's Story - While the writing is indeed excellent most of the time. I personally feel like this story is more about Johnny rather than V.
The sense of urgency after the prologue really makes it hard to "Role Play" V correctly. This conflicts with previous statements made by CDPR "Really wanting players to Role Play the character"- The way this was approached was quite confusing, as CDPR offers this massive world yet having a huge urgency that you need to figure out a solution before you die in a few weeks.
The World does not feel "Alive" by any means.. Lack of Dynamic Events - The world itself just feels pretty dead outside of flying vehicles and ads going off every 4-5 seconds. There is VERY little dynamic content like you see in RDR2 where they put a huge emphasis on the world feeling "alive" and never knowing what could happen.
Customization is severely lacking from a world that begs for more of it - Luckily if you're on PC, a lot of these issues have been solved with customizable Cyber arms, More tattoos, Hair Styles, Face and Neck Cyberware and more. If you're on Console though, you're sadly shit out of luck. The lack of visible Cyberware for V was very surprising. No visible Cyber legs, No visible Netrunning gear outside of "Suits", etc.
Jackie Welles was a brilliant character that was quickly thrown away - Let alone the massive spoiler they decided to showcase via the 2019 E3 CG Trailer, It was extremely disheartening to know that saving Jackie was never an option seeing as we were barely given any time with him and a wasted opportunity for possible great plot points. This could of been remedied by actually going through the missions played out in the 6 month montage. For players unfamiliar following Cyberpunk 2077 for so long, I would assume losing Jackie wasn't near as impactful for them.
Cyberware Arm implants are just alternative weapons for the most part - Which pretty much become useless unless you choose to use Gorilla Fists the whole game. No Utility from them, No useful tool elements, Just weapons that become obsolete very fast.
For a Dystopian World that is hyper sexualized, there sure is a lack of sexual content - Not hard to miss this, You have two Joy Toys and two high end JT's later in the game to choose from in the entirety of Night City outside of the selection of Story related characters you come across. Hell, even a lot of characters that dance on poles in the world are fully clothed. Let alone any real Adult themed clubs.
Trains were a missed opportunity - Let's face it, there were obviously systems in place at one point in development to have an actual train system where you could ride around Night City and be able to enjoy the huge vistas that it offers. Now you can just watch one from a distance disappear right through a building.
Verticality? Sort of..? - Take your Home Megabuilding for example and also prime example of cut areas and content. There were suppose to be several areas of verticality to explore in the world and areas and this is just not the case anymore.
"You'll never run into cool areas where you'll want to get in there but can't" - Yeah, that was definitely not the case now was it? There are several areas you would think would be accessible but just aren't or at any point in the game are.
Acid Rain? Yeah.. No. - Remember this? Yeah I haven't witnessed it either. But hey, at least there's acid fog right?
Then you have this huge dystopic metropolis of a city which looks absolutely phenomenal. I think it'll truly go down in history for its amazing design and the techniques they used to craft this insanely dense city. There's truly nothing like visiting Night City and it surely is a unique experience from a VISUAL and AUDIO design standpoint. The writing is solid most of the time as well. It really just feels like they had a very direct deadline and were forced to wrap systems up after changing the core game several times over and over again which caused loads of bugs in the code. I really hope when I come back to this game in a year it'll be quite different but after what CDPR pulled I find it extremely hard to trust and have faith in them. I had so much faith and love in this company that I ended up spending countless months building, designing, and launching NETRUNNER 2077 almost single handedly but after playing Cyberpunk 2077 for weeks, I couldn't even bring myself to write a review over it. Honestly, I would've been way too critical and harsh. Especially after having to monitor and dissect everything that was "said" to be in the game and how systems were suppose to "work" and it ended up being nothing like that what so ever. At this point and time I have no motivation or confidence to continue the platform due to the recent events and actions of CDPR's upper management as well as the highly manipulative marketing that made Cyberpunk 2077 only a glass half full of what it was intended to actually be. I made sure to set my expectations accordingly from what was told from developers to fans via interviews, deep dives and what was reported to sources that was approved by CDPR. With that and the EXTREMELY misleading marketing, it leaves an extremely sour taste in my mouth. I really want to have faith that they can turn this title around, but something feels off. I understand from a legal perspective that they probably cant at the moment. I just hope one day that this game can truly live up to its potential. There is an incredible foundation set, but it's ultimately up to CD Projekt Red if they choose to deliver their originally intended vision. For other upper management in game development out there possibly reading this- if your game isn't finished, please market it correctly as an "Early Access Game" and not a finished product. That is straight up lying and deceiving fans and consumers out there. It isn't right, and needs to stop.
GME Short Squeeze and Ryan Cohen DD for Jim Cramer, The (Man)Child Who Wandered Into the Middle of the GME-Cohen Movie 🚀 🚀 🚀
The Dude:It's like what Lenin said…you look for the person who will benefit, and, uh, uh... Donny:I am the walrus. The Dude:You know what I'm trying to say... Donny:I am the walrus. Walter Sobchak:Shut the fuck up, Donny!V.I. Lenin!Vladimir Illanich Uleninov! Donny:What the fuck is he talking about, Dude? Hello again, GME Gang. What a fun day we had yesterday! Could it continue today? Only Melvin Capital (and maybe Ryan Cohen) knows! And an extra special hello today to our newest WSB lookie-loo, Mr. Cramer (Can I call you Jim? I’m gonna call you Jim). Now Jim, from what I’ve been able to gather, you and your Boomer stocks and your Hot Manic Takes don’t always get a lot of love around here. But that’s not all your fault, Jim. The Paste-Eating Rocket Kids are often good for a solid meme (FYI: it’s pronounced “Mee-Mee.” Feel free to use that on air without verifying). But the Rocket Kids can be a dense bunch and they’re also often one click away from Total Financial Ruin (Quick shout out to SPCE: Pleas fly again). So you have to dig a bit in here to separate the wheat from the chaff, as someone like you actually says in real life. What the fuck even is chaff, Jim? And why do all Boomers seem to think that folksy farm-based idioms are the perfect way to conclude a thought? Anyway. Those of us who watched your teevee clips last week where you reference your interest in WSB know that you, Jim Cramer, might be one of the Olds, but that you also Think Young(TM). https://www.thestreet.com/jim-cramestock-market-advice-moderna-boeing-fed-ftc-dec-15. So we’re going to do our best to help your young-thinkin’ brain find the Needle In the Haystack here so you can get All Your Ducks In a Row on GME. Because we know that you’re a long way from being Put Out to Pasture, and though you may be an out-of-touch millionaire prone to facile yammering, we now like you here, Jim—simply because you mentioned us and that made us blush a bit since we’re needy Millennials who just want our Boomer mommies and daddies to Tell Us They’re Proud of Us. So even though the Paste-Eating Rocket Kids here are often Buying A Pig in a Poke (Christ, please do not ever say that or the kids’ Mee-Mees are gonna fuck you up), we appreciate you recognizing that, every now and then, there’s something worth paying attention to over in this weird little pocket of the Interwebs. And since you’re actually telling your loyal single-finger-typin’ viewers to check out this WSB shitshow, and “if they’re running GME, then do some work on GME,” we assume you might actually be checking this shit out too, since all true Young Thinkers know that What’s Good for the Goose is Good for the Gander. Now, is the GME play as solid as your recent recommendation to buy Bed Bath and Beyond? Who knows? That seems pretty stupid, and I would look it up myself this weekend but my nice little Saturday is already pretty full so I don’t know—I don’t know if I’ll have enough time. But I’ll tell you one thing: the GME play is a lot more fucking fun. Life in a pandemic is boring, but here in this weird WSB place, these kids like fun. And for all your Boomer weirdness, you seem like you still like to have a little fun in this Mad, Mad world of ours. So consider joining us here more often. A word of warning, though: if you don’t like all the dern cuss words we use around here, Jim, well that’s just, like, your opinion man, and we’ll have you know that the Supreme Court has roundly rejected Prior Restraint. First thing’s first: we have a bit of a bone to pick with you (now there I go). The stuff you said last week about GME as the next Blockbuster was D-U-M dumb, Jim. You were a bit out of your fucking element with that. You even made our largest shareholder and conqueror-in-waiting, Mr. Ryan Cohen, send an emoji-only tweet in response, which if you know the super nice-guy Ryan Cohen like all of us do (we actually know nothing), that is pretty much the equivalent of him bringing his dog over to micturate on your and George Sherman’s rug. Now, I myself have never been into the whole brevity thing, but I wanted to take this opportunity to get you up to speed on the GME movie you’ve wandered into. And I know you’re down with this because you told all your viewers that if WSB is talking about GME, then “make sure you know GME.” So before you say something Absolutely Mad again and Cohen sends a tweet with an even less ambiguous emoji, it’s high time that you start Making the Sure here, Jim. Just consider this to be CPT Hubbard delivering you some Orange Sunshine and turning you on to some of that Sweet, Delicious Non-Chaff Wheat you love so goddamn much. Part 1: GME’s Bonkers-Ass Short Interest Now, I’m going to lead with the most crowd-pleasing part of the story here (Get ready, Rocket Kids!), and it’s the one that you did not even seem remotely familiar with in your “Stay out of GameStop, Deadbeat!” rant last week. Maybe that was by design or maybe not. We’ll return to that, Jim. But the point here is: the short interest here is batshit insane. And not just your garden variety Boomer in Rolled Up Sleeves Ranting About Buying Estee Lauder While Hitting Buttons On The Beep-Bop-Boop Machine kind of insanity. Really and truly fucking nuts. So to TL/DR this shit for you, Jim (to use the parlance of our times): GME is themost shorted stocktrading today—by far. https://financhill.com/most-heavily-shorted-stocks-today How shorted? Well, the value of shares short exceeds the market cap of the company; there are currently more shares short than the total number of shares outstanding. And when factoring in the institutional and insider ownership, the total short percentage of float is nearly 300%. https://www.gurufocus.com/term/FloatPercentageOfTSO/GME/Float-Percentage-Of-Total-Shares-Outstanding/GameStop-Corp Even higher, actually, now that Cohen’s interest is over 10%. Now, I’m not a numbers whiz like you, but that level of short interest and the small available float seems pretty fucked up to me. Like: “how is that even legal?” fucked up. And just for a frame of reference, the third most shorted security right now is your beloved Bed Bath and Beyond, with a short percentage of float at a nice and tidy 69%. Are you starting to gather why some of us in this weird little pocket of the Interwebs are a little excited about GME? You see, as u/Jeffamazon and RodAlzmann u/Uberkikz11 and others have explained in these here corners and on the twitter machine with their top-notch DD, and as I will translate to you in lingo you can dig, the short sellers got way over their skiis on this one expecting a bankruptcy in Spring of 2020 that never came. And yet, amazingly, the short interest has only increased since then—there has effectively been no covering in the aggregate and, in fact, the short percentage has only gone up. And now, on the threshold of 2021, we all sit atop a massive powder keg wondering what is going to be the thing that finally lights this shit up. And at the end of this little missive, I’m going to tell you what I think that thing might be (Spoiler: It’s Ryan Cohen! Better start getting used to seeing his name, Jim, because this dude does not fuck around and he’s not going anywhere). https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/k4csaa/the_real_greatest_short_burn_of_the_century_part/ https://twitter.com/RodAlzmann https://thecollective.finance/2020/10/gamestop-gme-a-squeeze-to-44-from-14-can-be-justified-fundamentally-100-of-the-shares-are-short-watch-out/ Part 2: GameStop Isn’t Going Bankrupt and People Actually Want to Buy Shit There So, you foul mouthed little prick, a bonkers-ass short interest is neat and all, but why is Jim Cramer wrong when Jim Cramer compares GME to Blockbuster you might be asking yourself in the third person. First, the most obvious answer, Jim, which you should fucking know already: Blockbuster was nearly $1 Billion in debt and missing debt payments left and right when it was delisted way back in 2010. That was also when there was a bit of a credit crunch, if you recall, right after that whole Housing Crash Unpleasantness that you saw coming from a mile away and from which you made hundreds of millions of dollars due to your contrarian foresight—I’m sorry, I’m clearly confusing you with Christian Bale starring as Dr. Michael Burry, weirdo head of Scion Asset Management, which also holds about 1.4M shares of GME (You really gotta start looking into this stuff, Jim. This story is made for TV, man—and you Boomers were raised by TV and you turned out TV!). Also, in 2010 when Netflix is ripping and when Blockbuster was about to be delisted and bankrupt, an analyst noted the obvious fact that Blockbuster had “nothing on the horizon that makes it look like Blockbuster is going to be more profitable.” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-blockbusteblockbuster-wins-debt-reprieve-forced-to-delist-idUSTRE66052720100702 But Jim, if your Blockbuster comparison has any plausibility, GameStop must have a major debt problem then, right? And yet just last month GameStop repaid $125M in debt several months ahead of time. It’s also really weird that over the past year management bought back a ton of shares, taking the OS from 102M down to just under 70M (making a short squeeze even more likely, my Rocket Children). The weirdness continues with a soon-to-be-bankrupt company holding almost $500M in cash on hand. And according to George Sherman’s “Thine Omnichannel Shalt Be The Omni-est Channel of Them All” Conference Call following Q3, by March 2021 GME will have retired a total of $500M in debt and returned $200M to shareholders through stock buy backs. I’m no expert here, and I do not presently own a Beep-Bop-Boop Machine, but that’s all pretty weird shit to be doing if you’re about to go bankrupt. No, no – I get it: who the fuck actually looks at balance sheets anyway before spouting off about what a stock is going to do? I sure as hell don’t. That’s why I follow my man u/Uberkikz11, since that dude is a GME DD Encyclopedia and was born to crunch numbers. No, when Really Smart People make the Blockbuster comparison, it’s usually just Mouth Sounds for: A B&M Store That Used to Be Popular But Now Is Not Because Technology, QED. But here even the Really Smart People might be missing something as well. They’re right in the sense that GME must use this new console cycle window and cash influx to quickly pivot to a tech-first gaming company (more on that and our boy RC shortly!), but they’re wrong on the timing and relevance of this Super Smart Insight. So fine, they’re doing ok on debt and cash. But who even goes to that 90s-Ass-Looking Cluttered Mall Geekery anymore anyways? I confess: in my darkest moments, as the short sellers manipulate the fuck out of this stock and I curse the names Bell and Sherman, I too have wondered this. But it turns out that, just like I have no idea why anyone listens to Maroon 5 or eats at Applebee’s, apparently a lot of people in America do shit that I do not. Crazy huh? So here is some pretty neat data showing us how out of touch we might be here, Jim: First, when a pretty large sample size of people were recently asked the question: which of the following stores or websites do you plan to buy holiday gifts from? The #5 response from United States Americans was none other than GameStop (Ticker, Jim: GME). Only Walmart, Amazon, Target, and Dollar Store (poor people buy gifts too, Jim) were ahead of little old GameStop. That’s higher than Nike, Macy’s, the Apple Store—and double the response of Bed Bath and Fucking Beyond in every category they surveyed. Check it: (h/t to my man u/snowk88) https://stocktwits.com/snowk88/message/260983915 That’s kinda crazy huh? See Jim, when you Think Young(TM), you really can learn something new every day. And by following our man u/snowk88 (@snowk88 over at stocktwits), I learn lots of cool shit. But guess who already knew that? The guy that wrote this bad-ass letter that identifies GME’s brand and customer data as being one of the most valuable things GME has going for it. https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/RC_Ventures_Letter_to_GameStop.pdf So now we know that Real Life People actually buy shit at GameStop here in the year of our lord 2020. But like that analyst from 2010 said about Blockbuster, there must not be anything on the horizon for GameStop to be more profitable in 2021, right? Now, I will admit that being a bit bearish on GME in December of 2020 would make more sense if, say, GameStop were the nation’s largest purveyor of limp and half-lit pumpkin spice-scented candles and we were exiting the apogee of Shitty Candle Season. But as it turns out, GameStop is currently selling basically the most sought-after items that exist in the marketplace right now—where demand for the Xbox and Ps5 is far outpacing supply and is projected to continue well into 2021. https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2020-11-17-microsoft-expects-xbox-series-x-s-shortages-until-q2-2021 I don’t really need to get into the details on that here, because it’s pretty goddamn obvious, but I think 2020 GameStop at the precipice of a new console cycle might be in a bit of a better position than, say, 2010 Blockbuster relying on the latest Adam Sandler release to lift its sagging rental numbers. But I don’t know. Millions of people don’t watch my show looking for Candid Analysis from me and my folksy man-of-the-people-lookin’ rolled-up sleeves. Part 3:Ryan Cohen is the Sword of Damocles Hanging Over the Short Sellers’ Dumbass Heads And now we’ve gotten to the best part. It’s my favorite part of all of this, Jim, and if you give this a little time, I think it will be yours too. You see, all that corporate bla bla bla about balance sheets and console cycles and early debt repayment and overleveraged short sellers and brand recognition is neat and all—and definitely worth a second look by itself. Maybe even a little Beep-Bop-Boop on the ol’ sound machine—I don’t know your methods. But the real thing that’s about to rip all our faces off here is the business and investment decisions of a mild-mannered wunderkind named Ryan Cohen. Now you can revisit my prior epistle if you want to know a bit more about the involvement of Mr. Ryan Cohen in Le AffairGameStop. https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kakxrm/gme_tribe_a_story_about_how_ryan_cohen_is_about/. My fly-by-night theory of his lawyer’s possible use of the consent solicitation could have probably marinated for another day, but the thrust of my argument there was that Cohen and his attorney have been laying the groundwork to come after GameStop for a while now. And that Cohen was likely emboldened by the humiliating, lame-ass CC performance by some dude with a mid-century comic-strip sounding name that we’ll all soon know only as: The Guy With the Punchable Face Who Used to Be CEO of GameStop. But here is where things get really interesting. This is a story in the making, Jim, for fucks sake - take notes! This Monday, on December 21, Mr. Ryan Cohen filed a revised 13D showing that last week he started buying a shit-ton of shares—starting on Tuesday December 15th—which is the day after the stock price inexplicably plunged on Monday the 14th and the very same day you were yammering on the teevee about GME being Blockbuster! Instead of listening to you, however, Cohen started buying more GME shares (super-sleuth dark pool watchers u/rgrAi and u/snowk88 noticed in real-time that there was some very large accumulation taking place), which culminated in the big reveal that Cohen purchased a total of 2,501,000 additional shares last week—500,000 of which were purchased on Friday December 18, 2020 at the price of $16.02 a share. Ryan Cohen is still the single largest shareholder of GME with 9,001,000 shares in total, taking his ownership of GME above the 10% threshold from 9.98% to 12.9%. And so he apparently thinks that the floor for his investment is $16.02 per share. Is he still buying? We’ll know soon. But yesterday seemed like a little taste of what it might look like if a large buyer steps in to prevent short sellers from manipulating all of my nervous little Rocket Children here and their delicate little paper hands. There was another thing we learned from this 13D filing: Ryan Cohen has apparently hired a new attorney and law firm. Instead of the great Christopher Davis of Kline Kaplan, now Ryan Cohen is represented by Ryan P. Nebel, a partner with Olshan Frome Wolosky, LLP. Now, if you’re familiar with my prior ramblings, you might wonder if I was a bit confused, and maybe even a little sad, at this sudden change from my man C. Davis. And you might be a little right. But then the wonder of the internet allowed me to learn a bit about these new lawyers. And holy shit, things are about to get fun. Now, I liked what I knew about Chris Davis and he seems like a genuine bad ass activist attorney. But the folks at Olshan Frome and Wolosky, LLP are Next Level Players and really seem tailor-made for this exact situation. First off, Olshan is ranked as the top global lawfirm for Activist Attorneys. https://www.olshanlaw.com/assets/htmldocuments/Bloomberg%20Activism%20League%20Tables%20H12020.pdf (H/t @flummoxed at stocktwits). They seem to be the go-to law firm for major proxy battles initiated by activist investors. But possibly even more important is that Olshan is the same firm that represented Hestia and Permit in their successful proxy battle earlier this year to appoint two new directors to the GME Board. I’m not going into the fine details of that, because this is already a bit of a long-form Idiot’s New Yorker article, but GameStop just went through a proxy fight last year with Activist Investors Hestia Capital and Permit Capital, which resulted in two Board seats for our shareholder buds from Hestia and Permit. So, it’s reasonable to assume that the attorneys at Olshan might know their way around GameStop at this point and where the pressure points are here. http://www.globallegalchronicle.com/hestia-capital-and-permit-capitals-two-new-directors-to-the-gamestop-board/ https://www.olshanlaw.com/resources-mentions-HestiaCapital-PermitCapital-GameStop-BoardofDirectors-ShareholderActivism.html And if you follow u/snowk88 over at stocktwits (@snowk88)— you’d also find a wealth of DD on how Olshan rolls when entering these activist-investor-replaces-dumbass-boards-and-CEOs type disputes. To bottom line it: they get it fucking done. https://stocktwits.com/snowk88/message/266158534 https://stocktwits.com/snowk88/message/266155112 https://stocktwits.com/snowk88/message/266153175 But what else did we learn from the 13D? We learned that Ryan Cohen is definitely not going anywhere any time soon. Specifically, the filing notes that RC Ventures intends to continue to engage in discussions with GameStop’s board “regarding means to drive stockholder value, including through changes to the composition of the board and other corporate governance enhancements." And while RC Ventures “desires to come to an amicable resolution with [GameStop, it] will not hesitate to take any actions that it believes are necessary to protect the best interests of all stockholders.” I really like that last part, don’t you? And although I thought his November 16th letter was pretty goddamn clear, this 13D just ratcheted up the transparency level here. In sum, Ryan Cohen has all of our backs and he’s going to replace this Board and Sherman with people that are on the level and that will help implement his vision. And now seems like a good time to return to those “Ryan Cohen: Boy Genius” articles that were definitely NOT part of a well-coordinated pre-hostile takeover media campaign initiated earlier this year. I think there might be a few things in those articles that Mr. Cohen wanted all of us shareholders (as well as the short sellers and the Board he’s about to replace) to really and truly understand. Recall also that Cohen is not one for diversification or for playing it safe. So here’s a few choice nuggets for you to ponder: *** Bloomberg, June 2020: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-05/chewy-founder-cashes-out-bets-on-apple-wells-fargo · "It's too hard to find, at least for me, what I consider great ideas," he says. "When I find things I have a lot of conviction in, I go all-in." · Cohen uses the word “conviction” a lot. He says it’s something he learned from his father, who ran a glassware importing business in Montreal where Cohen grew up. “He taught me how to block the noise from the masses,” says Cohen. “To have a point of view and have conviction and not waver.” · He wouldn’t, however, recommend his [non-diversified] investment approach to everyone. “You need to have the temperament to block the noise,” he says. “Sometimes it feels like a roller coaster.” · He likens his obsessive focus on building Chewy to his approach to stock picking. "I don't want to swing for a single," he says. *** You hear that, Jim? Our man Cohen likes idioms too! But fuck those farm idioms, Jim – we’re upgrading to the Sportsball kind now. So what’s the takeaway here? I’d say that Cohen has his Eye On The Ball and that it’s time for all short sellers and the Board to Throw in The Towel because Ryan Goddamn Cohen likes to Take the Bull By The Horns and will ensure that he Hits a Homerun for shareholders that believe in his vision. Here’s a few more things Mr. Cohen wants all of us to know: *** Forbes, August 2020: https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/08/16/entrepreneur-chewy-founder-ryan-cohen-shares-his-best-advice/?sh=41e1370e5840 · “For me, each no sounded like they just didn’t understand my vision. It was frustrating at times, but never discouraging. Those ‘no’s never made me doubt my strategy – it was the opposite. I was motivated by all the rejections and they just got me fired up.” · “I understood that thinking big was likely going to be misunderstood along the way. I’m contrarian by nature, so being misunderstood often validates what I’m doing. It wasn’t until Chewy boxes were on doorsteps across the country that the bulk of investors started to recognize our formula.” · “[M]y biggest risk would have been not taking risk. The risk of going head-to-head against Amazon. The risk of insourcing fulfillment. The risk of building a company in Florida rather than a popular tech hub. The risk of spending $3 million a month on TV ads, more than Home Depot HD -0.1%'s budget. The risk of hiring expensive executives even though we weren’t profitable. These decisions were some of the most controversial and required me being comfortable betting against conventional wisdom, and were often contrary to the advice of my board. Suffice it to say, I was not the most popular board member.” · “Dad never swayed when he believed in something. I never compromised my vision, regardless how many investors turned me down I was not going to give up on building Chewy into the world’s biggest online pet retailer. I love to be challenged, and I’m flexible on details, but I’m never willing to give up.” *** Goddamn it, Ryan. I was done having children but now you’ve forced me into getting back on that train just so I can name this future child Ryan Fucking Cohen. Thanks a lot, asshole. But to return to my point: are those the statements of a man that seems likely to walk away at this point? Or is Cohen trying to tell us all to get ready because he is going All In on this shit? So where does this leave us? After a huge week where Cohen buys 2.5M more shares and then the SP skyrockets to $20 yesterday on that news? Well, this is where I want to tip my cap to my man Justin Dopierala over at Seeking Alpha and allow him to conclude this section. He, along with his pal Dmitriy Kozin have been pretty clear-eyed on all this shit for a while now and they both deserve some credit. And I know I gave my main man Justin a bit of a hard time in my last novella, but the dude is sharp as hell and helped a lot of us see the forest through the trees here. And you should also definitely invite him to join your poker nights (seriously: check out the dude’s tweet in response to our own Rod Alzmann’s introduction of the #WeWantCohen hashtag right after the Q3 call debacle). https://twitter.com/DOMOCAPITAL/status/1336446055685230592. You have no comment on a potential takeover involving Ryan Cohen, Justin after your hour-long googly-eyed call together? Can’t believe you’re just preemptively leaving the WSJ and Bloomberg hanging like that. Justin, I love you dude, but if I’m holding pocket Kings I’m folding after that tweet because that twinkle in your eye lets me know you’re about to drop two Aces on my ass. Anyway. Here is what our man Dopierala thinks might happen here soon (and he called this way back on November 17th- and sorry - no links here, per the mods, as apparently no Alpha must ever be Sought from these parts): I think a very likely outcome at this point is a majority slate next shareholder meeting where Cohen takes over BOD and then makes himself CEO. A majority slate proxy battle would require all institutions to call in shares and would force a squeeze. We’re intrigued, Justin. Please continue: If Ryan Cohen successfully negotiates a purchase price with the Board then the shareholders will have to vote on it. Unlike the proxy battle where Hestia and Permit were running a minority slate of directors, an offer to purchase GameStop would force institutions like Vanguard and Blackrock to call in their shares. By doing so, the shorts would be forced to close out their positions and GameStop would finally have the greatest short squeeze of all-time. Ironically, Cohen could use this opportunity to sell all of his shares and use the proceeds to entirely fund the acquisition of GameStop going down as the first person in history to acquire a billion dollar company... for absolutely nothing. In fact, his acquisition price would be less than zero. And now is when I get to speculate on what I think is going to happen here. But I do not necessarily think Cohen is going to put an offer to buy GME to take private. That would definitely trigger a MOASS, but I’m not sure I see it given the attorneys he’s hired and his recent buys up to $16 and the amount of cash that would take. Like Dopierala’s first comment, though, I think Cohen is going to nominate directors to replace nearly the entire Board of Directors with a vote happening at the annual meeting and once that Board is in place, they’ll appoint Cohen as CEO. And as Justin notes, if he nominates a majority slate of directors, shares will have to be called in to vote. And this vote and proxy battle will make the prior minority slate Hesita/Permit battle, and the tiny short squeeze that took place when that happened, look tame by comparison. Now everyone: get your calendars out. Because the date to nominate directors here is in Mid-March, and my super-smart corporate lawyer buds inform me that it’s standard practice to file about 7-10 days prior. So, if this actually happening, we should be seeing something on this by early March. But even though early March is now the mark on the wall, today’s insane price action caused me to think about all of this a bit harder and speculate a bit more. And a major h/t to my buds on the stocktwits board, especially u/rgrAi (@amarbar) for all the sharp analysis on this. But if you were Ryan Cohen and you knew this company was hugely undervalued and you had a high level of CONVICTION here and also knew you needed shareholder votes to sweep out these dumbasses and implement your vision—then how would you play this with the short interest here as crazy as it is? I’d keep buying. Why? Well, lots of reasons, you smart alecks. First, so I have more guaranteed votes (duh?). Second, so that when the building starts burning and short hedge funds run for the exits they find that a mild-mannered Millennial with super-good ideas has sealed off all the doors and windows. That’s gruesomely delicious, isn’t it? Why else, CPT? Well, finally, and maybe most importantly, because I would want to excite and delight all my fellow shareholders by triggering a slow-burn short squeeze, raising the SP significantly, so that I can once again make the point (as he did in the Nov 16 letter) that the incompetent management that caused a HUGE drop in SP following that utterly incompetent Q3 call and the shelf registration, had nothing to do with the SP increase that again happened once Cohen announced his intent and started buying. Not the console cycle, not the cost containment measures, not the buybacks and not the early debt reduction. Nope: rightly or wrongly, shareholders will see Ryan Cohen buying shares and the corresponding SP increase and everyone—especially all new buyers who are delighted at their good fortune and swept up by Ryan Cohen Fever 2021—will start getting #WeWantCohen tattoos on their ass they’ll be so happy. And all of us, newly enriched by Ryan Cohen’s Big Canadian Balls and tactical brilliance, will crawl over glass to vote for him over The Boomer Artist Formally Known As GameStop’s CEO. I could be very wrong on this last point in particular, but if we start seeing 13Ds drop here shortly, things should get very fun very quickly. Part 4: A Return to Our Short-Squeeze-to-Da-Moon Discussion: Who’s Side Are You Fucking On, Jim? Now, Jim, given the fast friendship we’re creating here, and all we’ve been through over the past 5000 words, I hesitate in bringing this up. But we’ve all seen the video, Jim. You know the one I’m talking about. Yes, the one where you actually tell the truth about how short selling hedge funds manipulate the market to knock down the price of perfectly good securities that many hard-working people invest in—many normal-ass people all assuming they wont ever have to Point Where On The Dolly The Invisible Hand of the Economy Touched Them. But that’s not life now is it Jim? And fuck those poor-ass rubes for not knowing how to play the game with you sophisticated Masters of the Universe, amirite? https://www.reddit.com/dashpay/comments/93evx4/jim_cramer_reveals_dirty_tricks_short_sellers_use/ https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2007/03/20/cramer-market-manipulato So where are you in this whole GME/Cohen story, Jim? You candidly (gleefully?) acknowledge that a prime strategy that shorts deploy is to spread negative rumors that are then amplified by Big Smart Trustworthy Financial Media Titans like yourself to shake out unsophisticated retail players like my Rocket Kids here—who because of their tiny paper hands and you mean short selling brutes often subsist on paste and paste alone. So for this particular security, are you the one helping with the manipulation and actively creating the “new truth” or are you just one of the Useful Idiots that these short sellers use to manipulate with an anodyne, TV media-ready comparison like: GameStop Is The Next Blockbuster? And how in the fuck does this fit into your Think Young(TM) project, Jim? Because if there is one thing that we over at WSB fucking hate, it’s a bunch of Manipulative Short Selling Boomer Fuckwads. Why on earth would a hip Young Thinker like you want to be included in that crew, Jim? And I know we’re all friends here now, Jim, but I need to push back a bit on some of what you said in that video in such a cavalier whatareyagonnado manner. So if I understand you, short and distort and fomenting negative reactions from retail players based on deliberately false narratives is illegal, but still easy as fuck to do "because the SEC doesn't understand it." But you fucking do understand it, Jim! So why are you helping those short and distorters break the law here? Why are you being such an obtuse dumbshit? Just check out what happens to the borrow rate and short selling every time there is any good news for GME: https://stocktwits.com/Slantedangles/message/264519950 (h/t @slantedangles). This manipulation isn't just happening with GME; it is happening everywhere. It’s baked into the cake. And that is pretty fucked up that we all just accept it because whatareyagonnado. I think that one thing that those of us who truly do Think Young(TM) have a hard time understanding is at what point in your lives do you Boomers all finally come to realize that it’s maybe time to stop playing the game like you have been? What point do you finally have enough where doing the right thing matters more than getting paid? Maybe start by telling the truth more often—and maybe don’t go out of your way to help those corrupt-ass hedge fund managers who continually fuck over average people merely because they were stupid enough to believe you all. What contempt you Masters of the Universe have for all of them—for all of us. There is a bigger story here on GME and this out-of-control short interest (naked shorting, counterfeit shares) http://counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock.html than even Ryan Cohen and the inevitable short squeeze we’re about to witness here. And it begins and ends with people like you and Melvin Capital and Bank of America not giving a fuck about the rules while thinking you’re smarter than the rest of us who do—but who lack power to do anything about it. And you know what? Maybe you are smarter than us. You certainly know how to play this game pretty well, as that video shows. But if I know my old school 1980s movies like I think I do, this is usually the part of the story where the rag-tag kids from across the tracks come over to show you hubristic rich fuckheads what happens when you fuck a stranger in the ass. Now I myself have never dabbled in pacifism, Jim, so this isn’t too much of a stretch for me, but seeing that video of yours and seeing the insane short interest and all the manipulation here makes me want to burn the whole corrupt system to the ground—while barricading the doors to trap in those arrogant-ass short sellers who lie and cheat and distort to profit off average people. And though I’m certain that this larger battle is not driving him, maybe that result is one that Ryan Cohen wouldn’t mind too. Though he’s a polite Canadian and would probably just let everyone know that he’s not really mad, just disappointed. But me? I’m an Angry American and I say: Block the fucking doors and windows and light that shit up. So maybe this epistle will be useful for your Think Young(TM) project and cause you to reflect a bit more on what’s really going on out there with this whole GME thing and the likely illegal shorting that has driven the short percentage of float to these insane levels, drawing in new retail shorts too stupid to know what’s even happening. Or maybe it wont cause you to reflect in the slightest (count me as one of those cynical types that see your overtures to WSB as a transparent play for greater market share from the Young Crowd since your old-ass audience is dying and/or switching to bonds). But in a few months when all the Billy Ray Valentines and Louis Winthorpes assembled here are toasting each other in stupid shirts on a white-sand beach somewhere, we do not want you to look back on your knee-jerk boomer-ass dismissal of GME and your Useful Idiot blathering with that same tinge of regret and longing you feel when you look at a pre-Client 9 picture of you and your old roomie: warm-toes-and-hosiery-enthusiast E. Spitzer, Esq. In conclusion: GME = Blockbuster comparisons are for Simps and Corrupt Short-and-Distorters. Don’t be like them, Jim. And to my Rocket Children: the only weapon we wield in this stupid game is Diamond Hands with a float like this. Toughen the fuck up. And Happy Holidays everyone. --CPT Hubbard TL/DR: Jim Cramer likes farm-based idioms and apparently being a useful idiot to scummy short selling hedge funds. DD on the GME turnaround is solid and overleveraged short sellers should be shitting themselves. Ryan Cohen, our polite, hard-working Canadian benefactor is about to rip all our fucking faces off and trigger a MOASS. Probably even by early March, if that time is good for you (he’ll text before he comes). And fuck infinite regress: It’s rockets all the way down here. 🚀🚀🚀 Now: diamond hands, motherfuckers. **This is a shitpost and is only to be used as investment and life advice for Mr. Jim Cramer, Esq.
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