Premier League Outright Winner Odds Comparison OddsJet CA

premier league win outright odds

premier league win outright odds - win

Bookmaker odds history

Hello! So I’m currently doing a study which involves analysing the past records of outright winner odds published by various bookmakers for the past twenty years of the English Premier League. I’m looking for the odds for each team to win the championship title. The further back I go (around 2014 and backwards), I find it harder and harder to find the records for these odds. Does anyone know of any websites where I can find these records for the past 20 years? Thanks in advance!!
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A Look At Each Position- Highlighting the drastic amounts of mismanagement in every position on the field since 2013.

Manchester United and a Positional Mess

Edit* I will edit the formatting to make it more readable soon
United’s transfer window has shown that the club is a mess from the recruitment standpoint for years but if you look at the team positional it’s been years of management and ineptitude since Sir Alex Ferguson and David Gill left the club in 2013.
*The transfer figures aren't correct because I listed estimates in $USD, will update later
*apologies for any spelling errors
Goalkeeper
When Ferguson left in 2013 United were in a good position in the goalkeeper department. David De Gea was 23 and the hype around was finally starting to show. In 2014, under Louis Van Gaal De Gea’s consistent performances put him in the upper echelon of goalkeepers in the world, he was United’s player of the season and nominated for the PFA Player’s Player of the Season that year. Unfortunately his contract was quietly winding down and the Spaniard made no effort in his hope to return to his native in Spain and join Real Madrid.
That January United had signed Victor Valdes on a free transfer and to many United fans Valdes was seen as an adequate short term replacement if and when De Gea were to leave for Madrid. Unfortunately Louis Van Gaal quickly fell out with Victor Valdes over a personal dispute over playing in a reserve game. Van Gaal vanished Valdes from the squad and quickly placed him on the transfer list. As it came increasingly likely that De Gea would leave for Madrid, United bought Sergio Romero on a free transfer more as backup. As 2015 loomed, Van Gaal made the decision to drop De Gea until the transfer window ended, going with Romero instead. At the end of the month Madrid finally ponied up the $35 million for De Gea and United agreed to sign Madrid goalkeeper Keylor Navas as a replacement. Hours later the deal ultimately fell through and De Gea decided to sign a four-year long contract extension at United.
For the next four years United’s goalkeeper situation was set, De Gea was arguably United’s most consistent performer over the next few seasons, even Sergio Romero was an adequate backup helping United win two trophies in 2017 with the Europa League and Carabao Cup. After the 2018 World Cup, De Gea suffered a poor run of form starting with Spain in Russia and ultimately continuing with United over the 2018-2019 season having his worst season at United. At the same time, De Gea was in another contract dispute, this time the goalkeeper was asking for a new contract which would make him the highest paid player at the club.United’s wage structure was disrupted with the Alexis Sanchez signing but in September 2019 De Gea signed another contract renewal though his poor formed continued for much of the 2019-2020.
United were dealt some luck with academy product Dean Henderson progressing on loan at Sheffield United and United ultimately signed Henderson to a new contract to push De Gea. Unfortunately this left Sergio Romero out in the cold. The Argentine was not made aware of United’s plans for him until late in the transfer window. United ultimately turned down a $2 million loan offer from Everton as they hoped to get close to an $8 million transfer for him. This led to Romero’s wife angrily calling the club out on social media and now United have four goalkeepers at the club totaling to nearly $500 k a week.
Centerbacks
In 2013 United’s Center Backs were Rio Ferdinand (34) and Nemanja Vidic (31), Jonny Evans (25), Phil Jones (21) and Chris Smalling (23). A year later Nemanja Vidic fell out with David Moyes and agreed to join Inter Milan on a free transfer, Rio Ferdinand was told before the last game of the season by Ed Woodward that he had no future at the club. New manager Louis Van Gaal decided that he needed to bring in a left sided defender Thomas Vermalen being his first choice, the deal ultimately fell through and United looked at Marcos Rojo after he impressed at the 2014 World Cup with Argentina.
The 2014-2015 season defensively was a mixture of consistent injuries and Van Gaal’s consistent formation tinkering. United used Rojo, Smalling, Jones, Evans, youngster Paddy McNair, and even Michael Carrick at center back that season. At their best Jones and Smalling formed a decent partnership but it was quite evident that enforcements were needed. The following season United did look at Mats Hummels and Sergio Ramos but did not pursue any deals instead , Jonny Evans joined West Brom and Van Gaal decided to play Daley Blind at center back and alter his defensive tactical approach. A year later new manager Jose Mourinho decided to purchase 22 year-old Eric Bailly for about 30 million from Villarreal. The following season Jose continued to revamp United’s center back position by purchasing another young center back 23 year-old Victor Lindelof from Benfica. Because of injuries and poor form United never truly established centerback partnership during these two seasons.
In 2018 Jose wished to purchase a third center back, this time going for an established center back like Toby Alderweirweld. Unfortunately the United hierarchy decided to go against Jose’s wish which led to massive frustrations between the manager and namely Ed Woodward. A year later and new manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer prioritized a center back a year later and paid a record 80 million for center back Harry Maguire. Chris Smalling joined Roma on loan and United finally looked to have a consistent center back partnership of Lindelof and Maguire. Maguire and Lindelof didn’t always compliment each other but United did have a defensively solid season.
Between 2017-2019 Phil Jones, Chris Smalling and Marcos Rojo were all given new contracts. You could argue that the players were given contracts less because of their performances on the pitch (Smalling may be exempt from this argument) and more to protect their transfer value. Now in 2020, Chris Smalling was sold to Roma for $15 million after months of negtoation with Roma for the paltry fee, Marcos Rojo was offered to Everton in 2019 but the club, allegedly Joel Glazer himself turned the deal down, Rojo was then loaned to his boyhood club Estudiantes in January basically for him to play and put himself in the transfer market. Unfortunately due to his high wages United have failed sell the Argentine for two years now as he has been left out of the squads Champions League Squad along with Phil Jones, who most bafflingly was offered a five-year contract in 2018. The injury prone defender is still on the medical table and couldn’t be shifted this summer as well. Instead of buying a new centerback, United will hope Eric Bailly can continue to stay fit and move on from last week’s awful performance, Axel Tuanzebe has been highly rated for the past few years, an unfortunate hip injury last October kept him out of the United squad for nearly a full calendar year but he is finally back fit, and lastly Tenden Mengi is a highly rated 18 year old from the academy.
Current Centerbacks:
Harry Maguire
Victor Lindelof
Eric Bailly
Axel Tuanzebe
Tenden Mengi
Marcos Rojo*
Phil Jones*
Left Back
Patrice Evra made a hilarious yet sad point during his appearance on Sky Sports last weekend. United haven’t had a good left back since he was at the club. In Moyes’ first season he tried to acquire Leighton Baines from Everton with an odd joint bid of him and Fellaini for $30 million which was swiftly rejected, United then agreed a loan deal for Fabio Coentrao for the deal to fall through at the last minute. A year later United spent big money on 18 year-old Luke Shaw, Louis Van Gaal told the former captain his services were no longer needed and he was sold to Juventus for $1.8m. Luke Shaw was touted to be the next big thing in England and United were hoping they had just locked down the left back position for the next decade.
Shaw was scouted by David Moyes but Louis Van Gaal was the manager at the time who approved of the deal. Van Gaal often played with wing backs which required Shaw to transition his game positionally. Van Gaal also purchased Marcos Rojo as a left sided centerback who could also play in the left back position and Daley Blind who was bought as a Defensive Midfielder but everyone saw he was equally comparable at the left wing back position for Van Gaal Dutch World Cup 2014 squad. A year on Daley Blind seemed to be United’s best left back. The following season Luke Shaw came into his own after struggling with fitness issues, Van Gaal reportedly built his entire attack around Shaw and also decided against purchasing another left back because he had so much confidence in Shaw. For a month we fans saw the potential spoke about with Luke Shaw, unfortunately a terrible leg break against PSV in September ended all that and put United’s leftback position in disarray. Blind was playing well at centerback, and Rojo was injured so Van Gaal often had to call play Matteo Darmian or Ashley out of position and he later called on academy Cameron Borthwick-Jackson. As Shaw recovered from his injury Jose Mourinho was now the new manager and never saw eye to eye with the young left back.
For the next two seasons Blind, Rojo, Young, Darmian, all featured at left back usually ahead of Shaw. The Portuguese manager wanted to sell the leftback but Woodward and the club refused. Shaw eventually won the leftback position back in 2018 and after a few good performances United rewarded him with a new contract. The following season under Solskjaer United’s leftback position finally seemed to at least be stable. Luke Shaw was first choice, and youngster Brandon Williams emerged after Shaw’s injuries and poor form in 2019. The club has finally decided to buy their first outright left back since purchasing Luke Shaw in 2014. Alex Telles joined the club on transfer deadline day for 15 million euros. At 27 United are hoping they are purchasing a player in their prime years to finally offer some consistency.
Current Leftbacks:
Alex Telles
Luke Shaw
Brandon WIlliams

Right Back
Like left back, right back has had one of the most important positional transformations in years and United were left far behind in this position as well. In 2014, Antonio Valencia transitioned from winger to right back and emerged as United’s first choice ahead of Rafael. The following season Van Gaal decided to move on from Rafael and sold the Brazilian to Lyon, United purchased Italian Matteo Darmian from Torino in what seemed like a shrewd piece of business. Darmian initially looked like a quality old school defense first fullback, but his clear weakness against the pacey winger in Premier League was quickly exploited and he never fully recovered.
2016 came when new manager Jose Mourinho got the best out of Antonio Valencia and he turned him into arguably a world class right back for that season. The following season his injuries and age lead to his regression and in 2018 the club decided to look at a new right back. There were rumors of Thomas Meunier from PSG, his contract was running down and was a self proclaimed childhood United fan. United went in a different direction purchasing 19 year old Diogo Dalot from FC Porto, a player United had mostly scouted at the U-19 level. United’s shambolic 2018/2019 was not the greatest environment for the young Portuguese right back to develop and he also dealt with injuries.
A year later Valencia left on free, Darmian was sold to Parma, and United decided to identify a new right back. United boasted about their superior scouting department by stating that they looked at nearly 400 right backs before settling on Aaron Wan-Bissaka from Crystal Palace. United spent $50 million on the young right back but he has nailed down the position and is hands down the best 1v1 defender in the league, though he is still developing in other areas. Dalot has been loaned out to AC Milan and United will play Timothy Fosu-Mensah and Brandon Williams as back up.
Current Right Backs:
Aaron Wan Bissaka
Brandon Williams
Timothy Fosu Mensah
Ethan Larid
Central Midfield
Central Midfield has been a shitshow since about 2010. Darren Fletcher unfortunately had to leave the game for nearly two seasons as he battled colitis. Anderson and Tom Cleverley were both injury prone and in 2012 United lost young academy product Paul Pogba on a free transfer to Juventus. A decision some would argue as Ferguson’s biggest mistake. Somehow though Fergie managed to win two league titles and challenge for a third with 39 year old Ryan Giggs, and 37 year old Paul Scholes who came out of retirement in 2011.
When Ferguson retired in 2013 Scholes quietly retired for a second time, Giggs became a rare player-manager and United’s priority was to reinforce the center mid. Fergie and his scouting departments had reportedly scouted Kevin Strootman, Ander Herrera, and most heavily Thiago Alcantara. United seemed ready to do a deal for Thiago who had a $20 million release clause in his contract from Barcelona. As Fergie retired he left the new manager with this same short list of players his department had scouted and done the necessary due diligence on. Instead Moyes had never seen the young Barcelona player play in person so he wasn’t sure about his abilities, he asked newly appointed assistant manager Ryan Giggs about his opinion and he famously said “he didn’t look a United player” whatever that really means.
Moyes moved on and instead was interested in another Barcelona player Cesc Fabregas. Fans and journalists questioned this move, Fabregas was an amazing player but he only just moved to Barcelona after pushing for his dream move for the last two years. Fabregas’ agent alerted Ed Woodward that the player would be interested in a move if United were to pay the $40million asking price Barcelona quoted. United spent the next few weeks lowballing Barcelona and Fabregas ultimately signed a new contract with Barcelona. United then spent the rest of the transfer window feeble attempting to enquire about players like Daniele De Rossi and Luka Modric to ultimately be rejected. United then decided to sign the Fergie scouted player Ander Herrera from Athletic Bilbao, in one of the most bizarre transfer stores in years United ultimately tried to negotiate a lower fee for the Spaniard’s buyout clause didn’t work to say the least. At the very last hour of the transfer window United offered Everton $30 million for Marouane Fellaini, oddly enough United couldn’t signed the Belgian for a discounted rate of $23 million if they acted earlier in the window. The recruitment of Fellaini and failed negotiations saw Woodward turn United into a laughing stock amongst agents and directors. A year later new manager Louis Van Gaal quickly approved the signing of Herrera this time paying his full buyout clause. Anderson, Cleverly and Fletcher moved on in 2014-2015.
Van Gaal also wanted to recruit a more defensive midfielder and United were heavily linked with Arturo Vidal, the club decided to move on after concerns about his knee (Vidal has consistently go on to play for Bayern Munich, Barcelona and now Inter). United instead looked a Van Gaal’s fellow Dutchman Daley Blind for Ajax who the fan base saw play at leftback for Van Gaal during the World Cup. While Herrera impressed it took only a few games to realize Blind did not have the pace to play as a single pivot d-mid in the premier league. At their best United’s midfield consisted of Carrick in a holding role, Herrera playing as a #8 an Fellaini in an advanced role using his running and physical presence to break up plays.
The following season Van Gaal wanted to further reinforce his midfield, Morgan Schneiderlin was purchased from Southampton and German legend Bastian Schweinsteiger joined at 31 from Bayern Munich, a move Ed Woodward said “would put shivers down the spines of opponents”. In hindsight Schweinsteiger had been injured for the past three seasons and Bayern were willing to get rid of their captain. United’s midfield was turgid and lethargic in Van Gaal’s second season and the following year United and Ed Woodward made their biggest purchase yet. For years the club had been marred by Paul Pogba’s success in Italy and allowing the young French midfielder to leave for free as he began to reach the heights of a world class generational talent. Woodward made it his priority to bring the midfielder back to United, he convinced him obviously with a massive contract and a world record transfer fee to Juventus, but also the promise of building a new quality midfield around Pogba. Manager Jose Mourinho got rid of Schenderlein in January selling him to Everton, and Schweinsteiger joined the Chicago Fire in MLS shortly after.
United began to build a midfield of Pogba, Herrera, and Fellaini in a defensive role. The following year Mourinho wanted a defensive midfielder to replace the retiring Carrick. Fabinho from Monaco was a target but Monaco did not want to sell after Mbappe, Mendy, Silva, and Bakayoko all left the club. Eric Dier was another choice which Spurs declined. United purchased Nemanja Matic from rivals Chelsea as they finished 2nd. The following season Fred was purchased for $50 million. Andreas Pereria who spent the last two seasons on loan in Spain was now back in the squad and academy product Scott Mctominay had a breakthrough season. Jose public fallout with star Pogba which started early in 2017 had fully exasperated and by December Jose was gone.
Fellaini was quickly moved on with a move to China in January, but the club failed to make a decision regarding Ander Herrera’s contract, though Solkjaer wanted to keep the Spaniard, he signed a free contract with PSG. The quality in United’s midfield was questionable, Matic was coming off a very poor season, Fred was labeled a flop in his first season by many, the debate on Pogba will go on forever and Mctominay and Pereria weren’t league challenging midfielders. United decided to not reinforce in midfield though the team was clearly lacking some creativity. During the Summer of 2019, Bruno Fernandes was heavily linked to the club though the club briefed journalists that United scouts were concerned with the amount the player lost the ball in Portugal. Six months later, United forked up the $60 million for Fernandes, the move occurred after an injury setback to Paul Pogba and a long term injury to Scott Mctominay. Fernandes was the first signing since Van Persie to truly enhance the squad and United went on their best run of form in the last season.
Andreas Pereria was loaned to Lazio and United purchased Donny Van De Beek from Ajax. This is a very exciting signing, an all around midfielder who can grow in this squad. Some have questioned the priority of the signing as the 23 year old currently isn’t in United’s strongest 11.
Current Midfield:
Bruno Fernandes
Paul Pogba
Nemanja Matic
Fred
Donny Van de Beek
Scott Mctominay
Attacking Midfielders/Wingers
Wilfried Zaha was the last player Ferguson had signed for United. The young winger electrified the Championship with Crystal Palace and looked one for the future. Unfortunately Moyes for various reasons to say the least gave up on the young player and loaned him to Cardiff City in January. Than Van Gall gave Zaha a pre season playing in LVG’s 3-5-2 system as a forward to impress, he was then loaned to former club Crystal Palace and ultimately sold on. Juan Mata was purchased in January for $40 million after he came available from Chelsea, though David Moyes played the #10 as a right midfielder for six months, but younger Adnan Januzaj was the one bright spot in an otherwise dismal season. Louis Van Gaal chopped and changed United’s attackers and wingers the following year. Nani was moved on and loaned back to his former club Sporting Lisbon. Shinji Kagawa was another player tasked to operate in an unfamiliar role as a #8 in preseason before Van Gaal discarded the Japanese player back to Borussia Dortmund.
Angel Di Maria became a target after a failed move to PSG, United spent a record $68 million for the Argentine and United fans were excited to get such a world class talent in their squad. Unfortunately Van Gaal’s formational tinkering and changing hindered Di Maria who LVG tried to continually play in different roles such as winger, attacking midfielder, wingback, and even as a forward. The player and Van Gaal fell and was gone after one season. Adnan Januzaj suffered in Van Gaal’s system and was loaned out to Borussia Dortmund and United's strongest Ashley Young played on the left and Juan Mata started on the right. United quickly reinforced the winger position with young talent Memphis Depay. United were convinced they were getting their own Eden Hazard but the Dutch player ultimately struggled. United seriously struggled for creating chances under Van Galls tactical approach the following season, but youngsters Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford flourished on the left wing and Jesse Lingard emerged as a new option on the right.
The next year under Jose, Rashford and Martial basically rotated on the left, and United purchased Bundesliga Player of the Season Henrikh Mkhitaryan to add some creativity through the middle and on the right. Memphis was moved on in January to Lyon, but United saw success with Martial, Rashford, Mata, Lingard, and Mkhitaryan. The following year Jose believed United needed another winger, an out and out winger who called cross the ball, he identified Ivan Perisic but an agreement could not be found with Inter after Woodward’s failed negotiating tactics. It became clear that United were lacking a pace and creativity on the right. Mhkitaryan failed to impress, and United were initially linked with Lucas Moura from PSG. United’s attention was quickly turned to Alexis Sanchez who United offered a massive contract and Mhkitaryan to Arsenal.
Sanchez was signed in January as marquee signing that could help narrow the gap between City and help United challenge in Europe. Sanchez from a tactical point was a questionable decision. The Chilean started his career as a right winger but has ultimately shifted to playing on the left and as a central forward at Arsenal. To fit in tactically United would either have to ask Sanchez to play in a position he hasn’t played in years, shift Rashford/Martial out of position to the right, or completely change United’s formation and use Sanchez centrally. On top of that, Sanchez’s massive wages disrupted the wage structure of United and had a lasting financial impact. Sanchez failed to deliver but United saw Martial and Rashford develop into quality players, though United’s right wing was now occupied by Lingard and Mata. In 2019, United purchased Daniel James from Swansea City. The signing was a peculiar one as the young 21 winger had only played one season as a professional but United signed him off of the recommendation of Wales manager Ryan Giggs. Sanchez was loaned to Inter Milan and United went with Rashford, James, Mata, and Lingard. James initially impressed but simply has shown that he is still developing and may not be at the level United seek. Mason Greenwood emerged playing on the right and having one of the best seasons we’ve seen from a young player since Wayne Rooney scoring 18 goals in all competitions.
Everyone could see that United could use an attacking player who could play on the right. Jose Mourinho tried to sign Gareth Bale and Willian with both moves going nowhere but in 2019 Jadon Sancho emerged at Borussia Dortmund as a generational talent. With Covid-19 impacting the financial strength of money teams United had a clear chance to sign Jadon Sancho this summer. In one of the most embarrassing and frustrating recruitments of a player by Woodward, United failed to pay the $120 million asking price by Dortmund. United ultimately missed their chance to sign Sancho and may be at the back of the line after clubs recover from Covid. United missed out on a generational talent and may rue this decision for years. Instead United recruited two young talents on deadline day deals. Facundo Pellistri was signed from Penarol in Uruguay and Amad Diallo was signed from Atalanta (joining in January 2021). Pellistri is a far cry from Sancho and United’s fast tracking of the young Uruguayan into the first team may backfire.
Wingers/Attacking Midfielders
Marcus Rashford
Juan Mata
Daniel James
Mason Greenwood
Facundo Pellistri
Forward
Fergie went out of his way to convince Robin Van Persie to join him at United and the Dutch forward delivered United’s last title in 2013. Wayne Rooney saw himself moved out of position and there were strong suggestions that Rooney would’ve left the club if Ferguson had not retired in 2013. Instead David Moyes convinced his former player that he would once again be United’s main man, frustrating Van Persie from a tactics point of view. Rooney also signed a huge five year contract making him one of the highest paid players in the premier league.
After Moyes was fired new manager Louis Van Gaal wanted to revamp United’s forward area. Javier Hernandez was loaned to Real Madrid and Danny Welbeck was sold to Arsenal. Van Gaal liked youngster James Wilson from the academy but United pulled out a major deadline day deal to sign Radamel Falcao on loan from Monaco. Falcao was one of the best number 9’s in Europe and this was seen as a massive signing. In hindsight, Falcao was coming off of his 2nd ACL injury, and the Colombian rushed himself back into fitness to be ready for the World Cup and ultimately not making it. The likes of Real Madrid, Juventus, and Manchester City turned down the chance to sign Falcao because of concern over his fitness and the massive wages he asked for, though United and Woodward were convinced to make the deal. Instead United struggled for goals, Falcao was a player returning from a bad injury and only scored 4 goals. Van Persie’s age started to show and he produced his least amount of goals as well.
The club decided against signing Falcao, and Van Gaal decided to move on from Van Persie. This left United with just Wayne Rooney who no longer could really play as a striker for a full season and youngster James Wilson who was eventually loaned out. On transfer deadline day in 2015, United paid $36 million in a deal with add-ons that could reach $50 million, the most expensive transfer fee for a teenager for the French 19 year old Anthony Martial. The signing was questioned by many at United as the forward was relatively unknown outside of France and had only played one full season of professional football. Though Martial was signed as one for the future he ended up scoring 17 goals in all competitions. United were also lucky to have seen the rise of Marcus Rashford who had a meteoric rise during the second half of the season. New manager Jose Mourinho wanted some experience with United’s attack and Zlatan Ibrahimovic came in on a free transfer at 35. Rashford and Martial were shifted out to the left but Ibrahimovic delivered at United until an untimely knee injury in April occured. With Zlatan out long term, and Jose not ready to trust Martial or Rashford, United spent $75 million on Romelu Lukaku with Wayne Rooney returning to his boyhood Everton.
Lukaku initially impressed and had an above average goal record at United with 42 goals in 96 appearances but his goal scoring droughts and style were not for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and in 2019 United sold Lukaku to Inter for $70 million. Solskjaer was ready to trust Martial and Rashford as the two young forwards had impressed enough to out and out starters. United decided to not pursue a Lukaku replacement and instead bring 17 year old talent Mason Greenwood into the squad. Injuries hindered the 2019-2020 season and with Marcus Rashford getting a long term back injury the club decided on a Janury transfer day deadline move for Odion Igahlo playing his trade in China on a short term loan deal. The deal was questioned by many, United had been linked with acquiring another forward initially over the summer the likes of Dybala and Mandzuicic were linked but never moved. During the fall, Norweigan striker Errling Braut Halland announced himself to Europe at Salzburg and Solkjsaer was adamant on bringing his former player at Molde to United. The deal eventually fell through after United failed to negotiate due to agent fees and a buyout clause and Halland (rightly) joined Borussia Dortmund.
For the next few months Martial and Greenwood truly started to emerge especially after the signing of Bruno Fernandes. Igahlo looked good in a few cup games but clearly hasn’t shown enough to be a key contributor off the bench. United then decided to pull a transfer deadline move for 33 year old Edison Cavani. A move baffling to many people as it seems like another short sighted expensive signing.
Forwards:
Anthony Martial
Edison Cavani
Odion Igahlo
Mason Greenwood
Marcus Rashford
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r/NFL Top 100 Players of the 2019 Season - #5-1

Welcome to the reveal for players ranked 5-1 for this year’s NFL Top 100 Players for the 2019 Season!

Players whose average rank had them land in places 5-1 are on this portion of the list revealed today. Players are associated with the team they finished 2019 with.
LINK TO THE HUB POST WITH A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE METHODOLOGY
So now, without further ado, here are the players ranked 5-1 in the NFL Top 100 Players of the 2019 Season!

#5 - Christian McCaffrey - Running Back - Carolina Panthers

Accolades
Accolade Total Year
NFL Pro Bowl 1 2019
AP All-Pro 1st Team 1 2019
AP All-Pro 2nd Team 1 2018
/NFL Top 100 2 2018 (22), 2019 (56)
Written By: sanswagata
Christian McCaffrey's 2019 season will be talked about with some of the greatest dual threat RB seasons in history. He went for over 1000 yards in both receiving and rushing adding up to a total of 2392 yards and 19 touchdowns. This has only been done twice before in Marshall Faulk's 1999 and Roger Craig's 1985. No one in history has done this two separate times in history, so next year CMC has a real shot at being the first. He also did this while being in the top 10 for yards per attempt at 4.8 and not to mention that he performed this with one of the worst QBs in the league for a majority of the season in Kyle Allen. Teams were able to focus on CMC and he would still beat them. He accounted for 43.7% of Carolina's offense this year for Carolina. He was durable, dependable, handsome, and fun to watch this year.
So what does Christian McCaffrey do so well that lead to him running for 1300+ yards on nearly 5 yards per carry despite playing with dogshit at quarterback? Well it starts with his mind and processing. He presses the hole very well and rarely will miss the correct gap. His vision and mind do half of the battle for him so he isn't running into clogged areas and when he presses he opens up the best hole even more. Let's look at one of his most exciting plays of the season as our first example. On this play at the mesh point (when the qb is handing the ball to the RB) you can see that there is no cutback and that his OL isn't getting any push to create a hole up the middle. That means it's time to bounce this play to the outside. The EDGE actually plays it pretty well, but CMC tells him to talk to the hand and shoves him to the ground. Then he is able to speed past the LB trying to reach him. There's just one guy left and CMC finishes this in style by jumping right overtop of him for a TD. On the second destruction of Jacksonville CMC can see that one LB is trying to cheat outside on this outside zone, so CMC can't bounce again like he did in the first clip. The other LB completely falls for the motion end around and splits that way which leaves the middle wide open. McCaffrey sees this and cuts that way and then uses his speed to get past everyone and keep his lead for 84 yards and the touchdown. Here is a fantastic example of his ability to press the hole and make micromovements to cause defenders to react. This is a counter play with a pulling guard and a fullback taking him past the second level and if everything is set up it will work beautifully, but the blocks have to work. The guard kicks out the end perfectly opening up that hole and then to make sure he gets the seal where he wants to go he just hesitates and looks towards the A gap just a little bit. This freezes 58 and makes that hole even bigger for him to run through and helps his OL. This time he presses outside before working in which helps him turn a small gain into a first down. This time you can see him cutback with great success because Green Bay blows up the playside. He turns the sift block from the TE into a lead block and follows him for a big gain. He gets a weird look on this outside zone, but is able to quickly adapt for a nice gain with Cam Jordan coming over as part of a T-E stunt CMC has to read it in real time, but he does so well and gets a nice gain. On this last example CMC reads the LBs and sees that Bobby Wagner overcommits to the outside zone just a little bit, so he presses him for half a second allowing the combo block to get some movement and letting the block be set up on the second level before cutting back. This ability turned a loss or gain of nothing into a very big gain and a first down.
Another reason he was so good last year is his ability to make people miss. This example shows his vision, pressing the hole, and elusiveness where everything falls apart, but he is able to turn a bad play into a good play by reading the defense and then making a guy miss. This play shouldn't have gone anywhere, but instead of being a loss because multiple guys failed their blocks he just makes them miss. He throws a nasty juke on the safety before putting on the jets and scoring a TD. Here he shows off his vision and ability to press the hole before wrecking another safety with a juke. Another play another juke on a safety making them go the wrong way. Another play which shows off his fantastic ability to turn a bad play into a great play this time by making a few guys miss in the hole. Blake Martinez gets the shake and lets CMC pick up an extra 7 yards. On this one Vonn Bell gets shook for a TD which makes Tony laugh a little bit. However he is not only elusive on run plays, but also pass plays where he quickly can secure a pass and then turn upfield and make defenders miss. On this little dump off he turns upfield and then gives 28 a quick case of polio giving him no use of his legs as he scores a TD. Here he outruns the pursuit angle making a guy miss after catching a quick swing pass. Here is the same swing pass against the Washington team turning a little gain into a big gainer. CMC is the last person I want to face in the open field 1 on 1.
While Carolina seemed to mostly use him as a dump off or swing pass guy he actually runs very nice routes and anytime you have a RB that can beat a cornerback on a route you have something special. This is a nice Texas route out of the backfield he opens up outside before quickly cutting back inside for a catch and a nice gain. He splits out wide here and runs a quick drag then makes a few guys miss for a large gain. He can change from a swing to a wheel to gain 20+ yards. From the slot he will beat you this time with an in route. He gets singled up vs a LB and beats him with a Texas route for a huge gain. He also can go the opposite way and beat the LB on the out route. Here he runs a whip route where he fakes the slant inside and then cuts back outside for a big gain and a first down. He almost has the ability of a WR to find the soft spot and make the catch. You can see on all of these clips that he's a very natural cathcer of the ball. He catches with his hands first and then brings it into his body. He doesn't use his body to catch the ball like a lot of runningbacks. Here is a good example of him using his hands to bring in a pass the pass is a little off (what else is new from Kyle Allen) so he has to jump and catch it with his hands. If he wasn't so great at catching the ball than he might have dropped this. On this crucial 4th down the Panthers go to CMC's hands and he delivers with a nice TD. This play he chips the EDGE and then is able to improv his way open after the play breaks down he makes a fantastic catch here for the first down.
This play deserves it's own paragraph and basically shows everything I've talked about from a receiving aspect for CMC. This route is called a juke route that the Patriot's have run for years with Edelman. This article will basically show you everything you need to know about it and if you want more Bill O'Brien did an entire clinic on this play. So here the receiver (CMC) has three options. He can sit if the LB plays him off and gives that up, he can return if the LB plays inside too much, or he can juke and run across if the LB tries to play him tight. McCaffrey hits the LB with the juke route and runs this requires great route running, hands, and elusiveness. He runs it perfect like he will sit on the route which makes the LB covering him come up just a little. CMC then hits him with his elusiveness and jukes to the outside leaving the LB in the dust as he speeds into the endzone for a TD. The Panthers should run this play with CMC more often because not only can he run the route well, but he can make people miss after the fact as well.
Next year and beyond I think there is even more room for CMC to shine. We saw in those clips that he was amazing, but could you imagine him with a real QB that makes the defense play a little bit off and not commit so much to the run? His OL in the clips wasn't amazing either. If he got a better OL he could manage better efficiency and if he stays healthy more volume. Not only would adding these thing help, but I would love to see more plays with CMC running real routes. It felt like a lot of the time the Panthers left him as just a safety valve when he could be so much more. It's possible that they have addressed all of this in the offseason. They added a LT (at the expense of another OL), they added a QB, and they have a new HC and innovative OC that just came off using another very good receiving RB well. I'm excited to see if CMC can come back stronger than ever and improve upon his last season with even more greatness.

#4 - Stephon Gilmore - Cornerback - New England Patriots

Accolades
Accolade Total Year
NFL Pro Bowl 3 2016, 2018, 2019
AP All-Pro 1st Team 2 2018, 2019
NFL Defensive Player of the Year 1 2019
PFWA NFL Defensive Player of the Year 1 2019
/NFL Top 100 2 2018 (7), 2019 (4)
Written By: O_the_Scientist
Acquired in a splashy free agent deal in 2017, Stephon Gilmore caused significant controversy among the Patriot fanbase from multiple angles. He had proven to be a good corner in his time in Buffalo, but his deal was expensive, leaving many wondering if there would be funds to pay Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler and what exactly Gilmore had done to deserve a top 5 positional contract. Over the first few weeks of 2017 that controversy stewed, as the defense allowed historically bad passing production as Gilmore appeared lost at times. Since the mid-point of 2017, however, Gilmore has been the league’s best cornerback, producing the special combination of deafening silence and highlight reel moments you only get from an elite lockdown corner. In 2019 the Gilly Lock became the first defensive back since Troy Polamalu to win the Associated Press’s Defensive Player of the Year Award. We’re going to take a look at the polished technique and savvy game sense Gilmore exhibits week in and week out that made him the best Cornerback in the NFL and one of the best overall players of 2019.
Stephon Gilmore in 2019
From a technical standpoint Gilmore is a master craftsman. His trade has been refined from the fundamental base through the finest detail. We’re going to take a look at the anatomy of an elite cornerback from the ground up, and the foundation is footwork. When you watch Gilmore run with opposing receivers, you see quick, clean, deliberate steps that both set up the following motions and maintain his balance, and each of those three factors is key. For a start lets look at this PBU against a Darius Slayton curl route. Off the snap Gilmore takes a minuscule jab step forward with his outside foot, creating a leverage point for his next steps that will allow him to follow any break. If the receiver breaks in on a quick slant or a drag his hips are now open toward the middle of the field and he can pursue that angle, driving inside off of that plant foot, and when the receiver breaks outside he can drive backwards from that plant foot to follow. On this rep, Gilmore takes a couple chop steps as the receiver makes his break so as to not over-commit and expose himself to a cross-up in-cut or deep slant, and only when Slayton hits the point of no return on his break does Gilmore flip his hips to run with him. At the top of the route he uses a T-step technique to drive on the ball, disrupting with his hands and creating 4th and 8. Contrast with this PBU on an in route against Cincinnati’s Alex Erickson. This is patience, situational awareness and an exhibition of why deliberate steps are key. Playing off the receiver, Gilmore is happy to let this play come to him in a red zone situation. Gilmore waits on-balance for Erickson to make his break, drops the outside foot and shuffles slightly when the receiver fakes that way, then uses that shuffle positioning to drive and beat the receiver to his spot. Every down, every rep, every one of his league-leading 20 PBUs starts right there in the feet. You'll see this on every following .gif if you look for it.
After the feet, movement flows through the hips. Stephon Gilmore’s hips don’t lie are fluid and disciplined, allowing him to stick with even the shiftiest receivers through their routes. The technique here - in theory - is so simple that it’s one of the first instructions you’ll get playing pee wee or high school ball - you can’t go anywhere without your hips, you can move in the direction they’re pointing faster than you can go anywhere else and if you have to flip them you’d better be damn sure about it. To see active hips, we can look at this rep against Tyler Boyd. Gilmore is in a softer press and Boyd manages a clean release, crossing his face with a large step outside before breaking back in. Gilmore’s initial drop step outside allows him to follow the outside release if committed, but his hips never rotate past ~45 degrees before he crosses back over to the inside following Boyd. At the top of the route Gilmore’s hips follow the receiver ever so slightly as he fakes an outside break then he closes to the inside of the field with the receiver’s in-cut, allowing Gilmore to break up the pass and in this case, pick it off. On the less-active, more-disciplined end of the spectrum, here he is against John Brown, opening up immediately to the outside against a very fast opponent, showing discipline not to over commit with steady hips as Brown fakes a look inside, then turning fully with the receiver. This technique is crucial to Gilmore’s ability to cover any kind of receiver on any kind of route.
The great footwork and fluid hips put Gilmore in position to use his hands, which he does exceptionally well both during the route and at the catch point. There's an art to getting handsy through a receiver's route both with bump n' run near the line and leverage at the breaks while balancing the knife edge between physical play and a penalty. Gilmore is also constantly fighting through the catch point. There’s a tenacity with which he outright attacks balls even if a receiver gets his hands on one. He attacks by punching to and through the ball and hands in any contested situation - seen with this PBU against Sammy Watkins - and he high points the ball like a receiver to either swat it or tip it up - seen here setting up a Devin McCourty INT. This comes after the hard part, but it’s the kind of fine finishing touch that transforms a great coverage player into a disruptive playmaking defensive back.
Stephon Gilmore is so practiced and effective with the physical process of playing coverage that he’d be a very good corner if he was only ever asked to man up and follow whoever, but what propels him to that next level is a blend of instinct, preparation and sheer brilliance. There’s just no substitute for study, knowledge and game sense if you want to be an elite cornerback. Look for the physical details I've described employed to their fullest effect in these quick hits that highlight why Gilmore is the premiere playmaking cornerback in the NFL right now. He knows what routes to jump against which receivers. He knows when to play off-coverage to invite a throw. He feels the right time to peel off his receiver and play the ball. On this Pick-six vs Miami he hits the top of his dropback an drives right in front of the outlet receiver, reading the QB rollout. On this Int vs NYG he bumps his man at the line before passing him off on the interior cut and dropping underneath the corner route from the TE. On a decisive PBU against the Giants with excellent coverage form and a laser-precise finishing punch. Undercuts on this ball tipped for an INT. Reads the receiver's eyes to time the high point. These are the highlights we see, but most of his year was spent smothering receivers so badly Quarterbacks refuse to try him, or sticking with an elite receiver for 4 seconds to not allow a QB outlet.
There's really only one way for a corner to produce a league-leading number of passes defensed and an allowed passer rating under 50. It's about the intelligent and selective application of a full, premium quality tool kit in the hands of an absolute master. That's what makes Stephon Gilmore special. He's so good the Patriots modeled their entire approach in the secondary off of his presence on the outside. The team played cover-1 and cover-0 - two defensive schemes that place a massive, high risk burden on outside man coverage players - more than any other team in the league because Gilmore could be trusted to lock down his assignment without help on every single coverage snap (except one, you're welcome Bills fans). I highly recommend his excellent Film Session to get a glimpse into how he prepares and what he sees and how his abilities dictate New England's approach in the secondary.
Legacy
Before Stephon Gilmore came to New England in 2017 he had entered the league as a competent starter and had grown into a pro bowl CB1 over a handful of seasons. He wasn’t someone mentioned in the same tier of Richard Sherman, Patrick Peterson, Aqib Talib or Darrelle Revis. Since the mid-point of the 2017 season, however, he’s been the best corner in the NFL, punctuating his Patriot seasons with a game-clinching PBU in the AFC Championship Game, a game-clinching Interception in the Super Bowl, two First Team All Pro selections and an Associated Press Defensive Player of the Year award. The full list of cornerbacks who have won that award is now Mel Blount, Lester Hayes, Rod Woodson, Deion Sanders, Charles Woodson, Stephon Gilmore. Four of those Six are in the hall of fame and Woodson is considered a strong candidate for first-ballot induction when eligible in 2021. Only 24 cornerbacks since the merger have been named 1st team all pro 2 or more times, and 12 of them are in the Hall of Fame or are what I consider guarantees (Patslegend Darrelle Revis, Charles Woodson). I don’t believe his career to date has made a compelling Hall of Fame case, but his 2019 season is the kind of monumental step a player can take late in his career to make Canton a realistic goal.

#3 - Aaron Donald - Interior Defensive Line - Los Angeles Rams

Accolades
Accolade Total Year
NFL Pro Bowl 6 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019
AP All-Pro 1st Team 5 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019
NFL Defensive Player of the Year 2 2017, 2018
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year 1 2014
PFWA All-Rookie Team 1 2014
NFL 2010s All-Decade Team N/A N/A
/NFL Top 100 6 2014 (43), 2015 (2), 2016 (1), 2017 (1), 2018 (1), 2019 (3)
Written By: Projinator
Introduction
What could possible be said about Aaron Donald that hasn't been said before?
The man is on a rare path, the path to be deemed the greatest ever defensive player. Don't misread my words, Donald isn't the GOAT yet and there surely are a handful of active players who have done more in their careers. But he's maybe the only active player that has done enough in his career to stay on that pace. JJ Watt was another candidate but injuries slowed down his pace, and unless he has some elite years in the next few he probably won't be able to make up the ground. In 2020, Aaron Donald will be entering his 7th season in the NFL at the age of 29, and still realistically has three more years of peak level prime with another five to seven years of elite play remaining. The man earned his 5th consecutive AP 1st Team All Pro and 6th consecutive Pro Bowl selection in 2019, and even in his statistically worst year since 2016 still managed to get one DPOY vote. Part of what makes Aaron unique in his combination of strength and speed, all while staying small relative to the average DT. Because he sits lower to the ground, his center of gravity gives him superior leverage on most all opponents he will face.
He has a strong argument as the greatest modern defensive tackle of all time already, the only other player who may steal that from him would be Warren Sapp; but Donald already has more tackles for loss in his six seasons than Sapp AND has a higher pressure rate. This time next year, with another batch of awards, we could be talking about Donald as the greatest defensive tackle ever. Don't want to take the word of a redditor who left the GOAT QB off the Top 100 list two years in a row? Take a listen to Brian Baldinger's breakdown, and become baptized in the shock and awe of the greatest Donald this country has ever known.
Aaron Donald is the perfect example of what fruits the labor of hard work can bear. For those unfamiliar, Donald has kept his humble roots by continuing to workout in the gym of his childhood home. He's explained that he discovered how strong and fast he could become in high school, and became addicted to seeing the changes in his body and how they resulted in superhuman power. What seems like such a slam dunk now, in retrospect wasnt considered as much in the 2014 NFL Draft. Many scouting reports had his size as a weakness, with many speculating whether his small frame would be able to hold up at the NFL level. Even during his rookie season he wasn't given the opportunity to compete for the starting job until week 6 (thanks Jeff Fisher). He's managed to overcome essentially every professional obstacle in his way, which gives me conviction in my, obviously homered belief, that by the time Aaron Donald retires he will be end up as the greatest defensive player in NFL history.
2019 - A Season In Review
While he didn't accumulate the sack totals he had in 2018, Donald still led all DTs with 12.5 which was good for 7th in the league. He also led all DTs in total pressures with 80, tied for 5th in the league. He did all this despite being double teamed on over 60% of his pass rushing snaps, sometimes being triple teamed and the occasional quadruple team. The amount of attention Donald requires truly is unprecedented, but honestly is required for any offensive game plan that hopes to have success.
He has a wide arsenal of pass rush techniques that he's able to use to perfection; he's able to leverage himself well enough to use the swim move with devastating precision. He can spin quick enough to completely lose any guard or center trying to keep him pinned. Perhaps most impressive is his jump chop as illustrated brilliantly by u/craigroh. His strength, despite being considered undersized, is unrivaled as shown in his bull rush. Truthfully his greatest strength is the variety of his arsenal and the way he can piece together multiple techniques. Because of this he's able to keep his opponents and opposing DCs constantly guessing.
In the run game, Donald is able to completely disrupt running backs behind the line of scrimmage, and regardless of whether that results in a TFL or not, it changes the play and causes chaos. He isn't really an elite run stopper, but he doesn't need to be in order to be disruptive. He's most effective in altering the path of RBs by blowing up holes and causing the interior of the offensive line to move outside where they want to be. In this play, Donald is so quick to penetrate the LOS that it forces Kamara to try and find a different hole, which results in a TFL on a critical 4th down.
In actuality, this may be the lone weakness to Aaron Donald's game. He occasionally gets baited into using his speed against him, effectively taking him completely out of the play. Sometimes he can recover, but OCs have begun to notice this trend and have been adjusting by running the ball directly at Aaron banking on him shooting off immediately after the snap. Essentially this boils down to a guess on Donald's part, but it's still a part of his game that he could improve on.
2020 and Beyond
If Aaron Donald is to become the GOAT, he will need another big year in 2020 and beyond. Under Wade Phillips, Aaron wasn't really given any help in terms of scheme to get his pressures and sacks. Wade was notorious for relying on 4 to generate pressure, and running a 3-4 defense with a 4-3 DT can prove challenging. For 2020 the Rams hired Brandon Staley, former Denver Broncos OLB coach, who could be the McVay-like spark the defense needs. I expect more exotic blitz packages to open things up for Donald so he isn't constantly facing two or more linemen, and in turn I'd expect a return to MVP-like form. My prediction for Aaron Donald in 2020 is as follows; 19.5 sacks on 95 pressures with 4 FFs and 1 INT. As a bonus, Look for Donald to be included on some goal line packages. My man has been lobbying McVay since last year and the coach is the exact type of person to experiment with odd personnel groupings.

#2 - Michael Thomas - Wide Receiver- New Orleans Saints

Accolades
Accolade Total Year
NFL Pro Bowl 3 2017, 2018, 2019
NFL Offensive Player of the Year 1 2019
AP All-Pro 1st Team 2 2018, 2019
PFWA All-Rookie Team 1 2016
/NFL Top 100 3 2016 (85), 2017 (40), 2018 (12), 2019 (2)
Written By: Lazy_Street
As a 2nd round pick in 2016, no one expected the prolific production Michael Thomas would output over his first 4 years in the league. He started with an immediate impact in his first year, quickly displacing Brandin Cooks as the team's number one receiver on route to setting the franchise rookie records for receptions, yards and touchdowns.
He wasn't done there, he then established himself as a very tough cover going in his sophomore season. He grinded out 104 catches and 1200 yards making his 196 catches through his first 2 seasons a new NFL record.. He earned his first of three straight Pro Bowl appearances this year.
At this point, I think the league and fans were unsure of how to feel about Mike. He was on most Top 10 lists at the position but rarely was cracking any top 5 lists or being talked about as a dominant gamechanger.
Everything changed when the fire nation attacked He cashed in a smooth 125 rec/1405/9 TD in 2018. He led the league in receptions and was 6th in yards. He was proving he was a master route runner with outstanding body control and catch radius. He became the fastest player to 300 career receptions ever at the end of the 2018 season. However, interacting with other fans on reddit there still seemed to be an air of doubt on him being in the same tier as Julio and DeAndrew Hopkins and his game would always be just below their level.
Enter 2019, the year of Can't Guard Mike. In one of the most consistent seasons I've ever personally seen, Mike shredded opposing defenses catching 10+ passes nine times. He set a NFL reception mark at 149 receptions and was awarded the NFL OPOTY, becoming the first receiver since Jerry fucking Rice in 1993 to win the award. He now has the most receptions by any player through his 2nd, 3rd and 4th seasons while being the fastest ever to record 400 career receptions.
But that's not what makes Mike great. His biggest detractors say all he does is catch slants and outs. Yes he catches a ton of them but if that's "all he does'' you'd think a professional defense would be able to stop him. They don't. If you actually watch Mike play you will see one of the strongest WRs in the league. He shakes off contact like a running back and consistently slithers through arm tackles for extra Yardage. He is excellent at head and hand discipline, where he wont move either til absolutely necessary making catches like this look routine. He is one of the best route runners in the game, here he shakes the corner off at the top of his route then uses that snake like strength to push through contact and get the TD. Which he does again later in the same game. His concentration was amazing to watch all year and he was consistently coming up with catches that required perfect placement and he didn't flinch from them.
He will never be a burner but he can be a threat at any level of the field, no matter which QB is throwing to him..
His appearance in the top 10 is absolutely deserved this year and anyone who doesn't have him in the top 10 players overall going into whatever weird Frankenstein covid season we have in 2020 isn't paying attention. He will be put to rest any argument and be the best WR in the game by the end of the 2020 season.

#1 - Lamar Jackson - Quarterback - Baltimore Ravens

Accolades
Accolade Total Year
NFL Pro Bowl 1 2019
AP All-Pro 1st Team 1 2019
NFL Most Valuable Player 1 2019
Bert Bell Award 1 2019
/NFL Top 100 1 2019 (1)
Written By: UnbiasedBrownsFan
Introduction
You've made it, the top of the list, the crème de la crème. Lamar Motherfuckin' Jackson. It's difficult to put into words what exactly makes Lamar Jackson special. Some of the words I've used to describe him include: "Holy Fuck" "What the Hell" "You've got to be shitting me" Basically, it's the return of the "Ah, wait, no way, you're kidding. He didn't just do what I think he did, did he?" The likes of which we haven't seen since the Michael Vick days in Madden 04 but if we turned him up to about 17. Coming into the season Lamar had the weight of the Ravens franchise on his shoulders and constant pressure from critics who didn't believe he could cut it as a quarterback. Well, the jokes were on them because he spent literally all of 2019 cutting it up and down the field.
And whether he was tormenting opposing teams on the field, or just torturing me in my own personal dreamscape, it truly felt like Lamar Jackson was everywhere last season. And perhaps he was? No. That must have been a dream. Virtual Reality Lamar Jackson can't hurt you. But he still possessed the uncanny ability to feed a grown man into the dirt and had an unnerving knack for inserting IV drips directly into the lives of opposing linemen. And it is because of this that Jackson has become a man to be feared among NFL circles. And it was that same sheer force of will that engineered Jackson's brilliant 2019 season.
2019
Lamar Jackson's 2019 season was nothing short of marvelous, spectacular, terrific... Lamarkable. Okay, you can blame Ian Eagle for that one. But in just his second season in the league, and first full season starting, Jackson tore down the NFL team by team with an offense completely designed around his unique skillset. And he didn't just tear them down, he ground them to the bone with a deadly combination of inhuman athleticism and spectacular change of direction. But then it hits you. He can throw the ball too... I mean, he can really zip that thing.
The stats speak for themselves. He led all quarterbacks in broken tackles with 42. The next closest was Josh Allen with... 20. He led the league in passing touchdowns and total touchdowns with 36 and 43 respectively and he didn't just break Michael Vick's rushing record, he shattered it. With a mind-boggling 1206 rushing yards, Lamar Jackson ran his way into the top 6 amongst running backs. But actually watching the plays? Well, there truly are no words. Just how exactly are you expected to stop a play like this? How do you even wrap your head around this throw? Of course, it was efforts like these that were enough to earn him MVP honors and solidify this season amongst some of the all-time greats, but it's not just his stats and plays that made him the best player in the NFL in 2019.
Because the true measure of the greatness of a player is how great he can make those around him. And Lamar Jackson was able to lead the league in passing touchdowns with, checks notes Antonio Brown's cousin as his WR1? His ability to move around the pocket and the sheer threat of him gashing opposing defenses on the ground created extremely favorable matchups along the offensive line and the threat of the read-option allowed the Ravens backfield to set the all-time record for rushing yards with three players averaging at least 5 yards a carry. A record that had previously stood for 41 years. So you can argue that he had great running backs around him and a great offensive line too, but I don't believe that takes away from the greatness of Lamar Jackson. It enhances it.
Legacy
Lamar could certainly never touch a football again and still be remembered for what he accomplished this season. An MVP in just his second year and first full season starting, combined with a rushing record that, let's face it, will never be broken, thrust Jackson into a category of players that consist of sheer greatness. Only time will tell if his play will continue, but with the type of upward trajectory and growth he's displayed already, I'm not even sure he is bound by limits of reality. The only thing that can stop Lamar at this point is this fucking thing.
As for Lamar's 2019 season itself? It will certainly go down in the history books. But I believe we'll also look back at this season as a significant turning point in the NFL. You don't have to fit your quarterback into a mold, you can mold your team around a quarterback. The NFL's a' changing and Lamar Jackson is at the forefront of that change. As for the future of Lamar Jackson, well, that's a frightening thought. The sheer improvement as a passer from year one to year two is unprecedented, and the thought of him getting even wiser and refining his game to another level is legitimately terrifying. And that's all before you realize he's younger than Joe Burrow... Fuck. All I know is that if Lamar Jackson plays next season even a little bit like he played this season, his legacy is going to include about 500 million more dollars.

LINK TO 2019 POSITIONAL GROUPING TRACKER

LINK TO 2019 RANKER SHEETS

LINK TO HUB

Schedule Change

The series Post Mortem will take place July 22 instead of July 15. I won’t be able to post on the original date.
submitted by MikeTysonChicken to nfl [link] [comments]

I, too, Reached the Top 500 Without Legendaries

Hello! I noticed someone else posted a high ranking with a team without legendaries in Ultra GBL, and I felt like chiming in with my team as well. Today, I’ve reached the Top 100 (specifically number 74) with an MMR of 2759 using a team of Gyarados, Snorlax, and Swampert. Pictured here along with proof that this is my account .
This came after struggling a bit in Great League, ending with a 2354 MMR, falling over 100 points on the last day of Great League GBL. My stint with Ultra League during the Pre-season was fairly unimpressive as I opted to just throw a half-decent team together of Togekiss, Giratina-A, and Poliwrath, none of them having anything resembling ideals IVs, and the Giratina being 2354 CP, and I didn’t even bother with Ultra League during Season 1, but after having a fairly frustrating time in Great League and wanting to have a chance at Rank 10 this time around after missing the 3,000 mark by two points, managing to lose three battles in a row after having won the first two at that point back in Season 1, I decided I would need to give Ultra League a go, but I honestly wasn’t expecting much.
This will get kind of long, so each section will have a summary/tl;dr at the end.
My process and reasoning:
So, I knew the three big Ultra League legendaries were Registeel, Cresselia, and of course Giratina-A (with the occasional Origin Forme appearance). I was aiming for ideal PVP stats, and I didn’t really have a way to obtain any of these three with those stats despite having the Rare Candy for at least the latter two. I decided to look into what other Pokemon were generally seen as pretty good in the league. I saw the obvious ones like Swampert and Alolan Muk, but I was surprised to see Gyarados among the higher ranks (at least according to Gamepress). I’m well-versed in the main series and knew that Gyarados was extremely attack-focused, with a passable Special Defense stat, but I had assumed that its massive attack would overshadow most of any sort of bulk that said Sp. Def could’ve brought to the table. I’d later end up being kind of right, but I remembered I had caught a low-level Magikarp nearly a year ago with a spread of 3/15/15, and given that I’m a little starved for Pokemon with good PVP stats still, I surmised that, with Dragon Breath and Crunch for the Giratinas and Cresselia along with a resistance to Registeel and Swampert’s attacks, even with a slight lack of bulk, he’d probably be a fairly effective lead.
Next, in order to make up for Gyarados’s slight lack of bulk, I needed a safe switch. Outside of the legendaries, the two next bulkiest Pokemon seemed to be Lickilicky and Snorlax. I had a 15/13/13 Lickilicky with Body Slam but concluded that, if I was ever going to invest into a Lickilicky, considering the staggering cost of doing so, I’d rather wait for a 15/15/15 one and next round of its respective event. Thankfully, back in the day, I bought into the idea of low-attack Gym Defenders giving attacking Pokemon less energy for charge moves, and as an Instinct Player who needed every Premier Ball she could get during raids, I took pre-raid gym defense very seriously, especially as I live in Lexington, KY (where the University of Kentucky is), so there’s a very sizable Mystic presence around here. As a result, I kept a 5/14/15 Snorlax I had found back in early 2019. Went ahead and powered her up and added her to my team.
I now had a lead that could dent most other leads and a good safe-switch for nearly any lead that would prove too threatening to Gyarados. Now, all I needed was a good solid Pokemon that didn’t share any weaknesses with the previous two. Luckily, by the time of the Mudkip Community Day, I had begun keeping potentially PVP viable Pokemon, and I just so happened to have a rank 1 shiny Swampert with Hydro Cannon. Don’t think I really need to go into how good Swampert is, but it does complement Gyarados’s weaknesses to Electric and Rock well. But honestly, this is the Pokemon I put the least thought into when designing my team. I needed a good glue Pokemon, and I just so happened to have a good Swampert just waiting to fill the role.
Summary/tl;dr: I didn’t have the resources for PVP viable legendaries for Ultra League, but after struggling in Great League and being unsatisfied with my MMR, I decided I’d need to find a way to at least gain some MMR in Ultra League. Picked Gyarados as a lead because of its strong match-ups against most meta-relevant Pokemon in addition to being able to dent most Pokemon in general with Dragon Breath’s strong DPS alone. Picked Snorlax as a safe-switch in with bulk to complement Gyarados’s slight lack. Added Swampert as a glue Pokemon without much thought but would later come to realize it covered Gyarados’s Rock and Electric weaknesses well.
Initial movesets:
I initially ran Gyarados with Dragon Breath, Crunch, and Outrage. I used Outrage as Gamepress recommended it, and I reasoned that Hydro Pump’s energy cost might make it difficult to actually use on a lead Pokemon. Plus, it hit Giratina-A harder than Crunch if it decided not to shield.
I initially ran Snorlax with Lick, Body Slam, and Outrage. I was still really worried about Giratina-A at this point and didn’t want to be put in a situation where Snorlax couldn’t do her additional job as a harder counter to Giratina-A, especially if running Dragon Breath and Snorlax had already taken some damage prior.
I initially ran Swampert with Mud Shot, Hydro Cannon, and Sludge Wave. I felt that, although they are rarer in Ultra League, my team was a little weak to Grass types, and I still had bad memories of Meganium in Great League. It also had the bonus of obliterating Charmers, too. Finally, I felt that Hydro Cannon by itself would probably handle Registeel well enough, especially with shield advantage, the only iffy-scenario being a no-shield scenario on both sides and a full health Registeel.
Initial observations and experiences:
2354 wasn’t necessarily a low MMR the day after Great League finished, but it’s pretty far from the top 500. The team performed well beyond my expectations, though.
Lead situations:
Giratina-A: Gyarados was able to take chunks out of just about everything he went up against besides Fairies, and taking most if not all of opposing Giratinas’ health down was immensely helpful in the long run considering Giratina A’s intended tankiness. Oddly, a lot of trainers around this level didn’t have Giratina-A shield against Gyarados, meaning I usually won that match-up fairly easily if it was the lead.
Giratina-O: Saw more shield use with this one, meaning Gyarados would generally lose as I became more and more reticent toward risking shielding an Ominous Wind, but that just led to Snorlax getting some free farming or a switch advantage along with a shield advantage.
Articuno: I quickly began noticing that Articuno was extremely common at this level, though, and it could prove a little troublesome. Icy Wind seemed to tie Crunch, and if I opted to Crunch at the first possible opportunity, I risked losing the tie and being forced to use up all that energy for a rather pitiful amount of damage. So I thought, “Well, why not just switch to Snorlax after the first Icy Wind? Gyarados will still have about half his health after taking the Icy Wind, and Snorlax has the bulk to chase Articuno out.” I began utilizing this strategy to fairly good success. I’d get the occasional Swampert switch in after the Icy Wind hit on Snorlax, but Snorlax’s bulk and Body Slam spam stalling would usually allow me to get Gyarados back in to make them eat an immediate Crunch. I’d later use this strategy to inform my response to Cresselia leads as well.
Cresselia: As anyone who plays in Ultra League knows, Cresselia is quite the common lead, and that Moonblast attack drop is very frustrating. Unlike Articuno, though, it’s not guaranteed. Like Icy Wind, Moonblast comes out at about the same time Crunch can on the first use, but every time after, Moonblast will come out first. So, I used the same strategy as with Articuno, switching to Snorlax once an attack drop occurs. I also began shielding the second Moonblast, and assuming the attack drop did not occur yet again, was either able to finish it off with a second Crunch or, if the Crunch was shielded, would expend a second shield to farm up an additional Crunch, even with an attack drop.
Armored Mewtwo: Crunch comes out just a little faster than Psystrike can and Gyarados would win ties. Shielding Pystrike is generally worth it if you can get Crunch to hit, but if it comes down to it, and they shield both Crunches, you will have to expend both shields to keep Gyarados in. The good news is that Dragon Breath will take Armored Mewtwo down before Confusion takes Gyarados down, and you should just barely get a Crunch ready for whatever comes out next. Be quick with using it, though, as Gyarados will have the tiniest sliver of health left at this point.
Swampert: A fairly comfortable win for Gyarados.
Alolan Muk: Usually I'd have Gyarados take a Dark Pulse before switching to Swampert. Like any match-up where I often switch to Swampert, it'd invite Giratina-A, though. Could also switch to Snorlax, but Snorlax would take some good damage and potentially need to use a shield to win the match-up.
Fairies: Against Fairies, I would initially switch to Swampert, but that generally ended up with my Swampert getting KO’d and a shield used up as the opponent often used both shields or had Giratina-A switch in, which was tough for my Swampert as it lacked Earthquake at the time. Either outcome left me much more vulnerable to the likes of Cresselia and Alolan Muk, so I started switching to Snorlax instead, and that was generally much more difficult to answer.
Gyarados: My strategy with Gyarados was one I came up with without looking anywhere, so I truly didn’t know if that’s how others used Gyarados as well. At this time, I’d use up a shield to take a Crunch and see if they shielded my own afterward (purposely avoiding a tie to see if they might also switch right after I shielded the Crunch). Later on, I’ve changed this strategy up, but more on that later.
Scizor: Bullet Punch or Fury Cutter and non-STAB Night Slash didn't really pose a threat to Gyarados, and Crunch hits hard enough since, similarly to Gyarados itself, Scizor's attack stat somewhat eclipses the bulk you might expect it to have. Like a lot of match-ups where the opposing Pokemon's charge move can potentially buff or de-buff, I like to wait until after the charge move hits to see if I still want to opt to let off the Crunch or switch. If Night Slash does get an attack boost, though, a switch to Swampert can chase it out, albeit potentially invite a Giratina-A in.
Lucario: Didn’t see too many Lucario, but as I was still inexperienced with the team at the time, I generally lost to a curveball like Lucario. That doesn’t mean Lucario is necessarily a bad match-up for the team, though. If I had to guess, building up a Crunch, taking a charge move, and switching to Swampert is probably the best play. Alternatively, as frail as Lucario is, Crunch alone may pressure it and at least put it within range to be easily taken out with Mud Shots after Gyarados faints. If Gyarados has Hydro Pump, that could also be attempted, but it would be quite risky to do so I would think.
Other match-ups:
Swampert: I quickly learned that Snorlax did lose to Swampert, but she generally got it pretty low, allowing Gyarados to come back in and farm some energy safely enough.
Armored Mewtwo: Snorlax can win in most scenarios against Armored Mewtwo. Watch out for Dynamic Punch, though. Swampert, being less bulky, will die outright to Confusion in a two shield scenario on both sides, but Armored Mewtwo will have to expend at least one of the shields to not lose and both shields if it wants to avoid losing most of its health.
Lapras: Really awkward overall for my team to face. Thankfully, I rarely saw it as a lead, but the few times I did, I actually got the Outrage off, so for a while, I never really learned how to properly deal with a lead Lapras.
Shiftry: Actually a pretty scary match-up despite its frailty the few times I saw it. Charge move after charge move on a team that generally couldn’t get charge moves off very fast sans the one with a 4x weakness to Grass. Dragon Breath could do good damage, but I’d be lying if I didn’t say there were a couple of times the Sludge Wave choice saved my MMR from an anchor Shiftry.
Meganium: Another match-up where Sludge Wave saved me. Definitely more common here than at high MMR. Gyarados’s Outrage also helped if they tried to call a bluff on shield. Snorlax can take two Frenzy Plants but can only hit two Body Slams in turn.
Alolan Muk: Swampert takes care of this well, with Snorlax able to put on good damage if she already had some energy built up.
Snorlax: Never saw a lead Snorlax at this MMR, but if my Snorlax was already in, I’d either switch to Swampert if I hadn’t seen a Giratina yet or switch in/keep in my Snorlax if I had already defeated one to keep Swampert fresh for a potential Registeel.
Charizard: Running a double Water team doesn’t make Charizard too much of a problem. If I am stuck with Snorlax, though, and there’s potential for a Giratina in the back, I switch to Gyarados, especially if there could also be a Registeel in the back.
Scizor: Walled Snorlax pretty badly, but similarly to Charizard, running double Water, especially with one being part Flying, made Scizor fairly unthreatening.
Registeel: Surprisingly uncommon at this point. Its increasing frequency as I climbed acted as a catalyst for two of the changes I would later make.
Changes I made over time:
At the level I started at, this team actually performed about to my expectations. It may have been a little too focused on clearing out Giratina, but I don’t regret having Sludge Wave on Swampert surprisingly enough. There were more Grass types and Fairies running around at that level, the latter of which likely being the easiest Band-Aid solution to Giratina to throw on a team, and Sludge Wave did an admirable job at taking care of them. As my MMR rose, though, teams became more and more meta: the Grass types became fewer, and Fairies while still seeing occasional appearances, weren’t nearly as common. I also began realizing my team was a little weak against the increasingly common anchor Registeel. Thus, I made the first change: I switched out Swampert’s Sludge Wave for Earthquake.
At around the late 2500s and early 2600s, I realized that, even with Swampert having Earthquake, Snorlax being weak to Registeel and Gyarados usually being much too worn down to take on an anchor Registeel, I had to be overly conservative with Swampert since I always needed to save him for that potential Registeel. Escavalier started appearing more frequently during this time as well, yet another Steel that not only walled Snorlax but could hit her hard with Counter. Thus, I bit the bullet, made my team a bit weaker to Giratina-A, and switched out Snorlax’s Outrage for Earthquake.
Finally, two days ago in the mid-2600s, I did some thinking and came to the conclusion that Outrage was just overall too redundant on Gyarados. By this point, Escavalier had become a very common lead, and Steel types in general were seeing more use, so the idea of Hydro Pump had become even more alluring. I acknowledged that Meganium and Lapras would become much more troublesome to handle with this change, but the former had become quite uncommon by that point, and the latter could probably still be worn down well enough. Additionally, it’d let Gyarados have a fighting chance against Fairies in a 1v1 situation. Obstagoon leads had also started rearing their heads by this time, and I needed a better chance at dealing with their surprisingly sturdy bulk. Still, I was nervous going in with this change as it was the one I was most unsure about, but after taking out 4/5 of an Alolan Muk’s health with one, I was sold.
Overall thoughts: I probably should have switched Snorlax and Gyarados off of Outrage sooner as those attacks generally didn’t do much outside of hitting Meganium and Shiftry harder at the expense of making both more vulnerable to more common Pokemon like Alolan Muk and Registeel, but Sludge Wave was definitely the right call to make at this point.
Meta changes and how they affected the team:
The first meta change that the team needed to adapt to was Escavalier becoming more prominent. I never actually really followed the meta too closely outside of general trends, so my only guess was that it was in response to the influx of Cresselia leads along with being able to probably put good damage on most other leads, especially Registeel. I tried fighting it with Gyarados, but its sheer power was able to overcome the type disadvantage generally, and it’d usually get a Drill Run off on Swampert, too, if I switched it in after Gyarados was KO’d. Not even gonna mention Snorlax. I began instead using a similar strategy to Articuno and Cresselia, taking a Megahorn without firing off a Crunch (losing about half his health) and switching to Swampert to get some free Mud Shots in before it got a switch into something else (or stayed around for some reason). Even with a Giratina-A switch in, the extra energy from the additional Mud Shots usually affords me the ability to get two Earthquakes in, either forcing one or two shields or KOing the Giratina-A. Funnily enough, the latter is usually the worst outcome as I’m forced to usually maneuver around Escavalier if it switches back in immediately, but assuming no shield use on its end, Gyarados gets it into the red, and Snorlax builds up some energy via Lick at the cost of around 30-40% of its health. With two shields, Snorlax can win against most things at this point besides Registeel, though. If the Giratina-A instead used a shield, however, Swampert would generally fall or (if I was lucky) be able to be switched out, and Snorlax could come in and very comfortably farm to be able to threaten Escavalier later on. This strategy doesn’t always work, but it’s effective enough I feel.
The second meta change, though, has been much tougher to figure out. With the release of a few Galarian forms, Obstagoon has entered the fray, and it’s been extremely difficult to deal with. Much like Snorlax, its bulk allows it to shrug off Dragon Breath damage really well, but it also resists Crunch. Worse yet, despite the type disadvantage Counter has against Gyarados, it can use its charge move much more frequently than Snorlax can, and it even has that chance for an attack boost to boot. I’ve tried switching immediately to Swampert, staying in and risking it all on Hydro Pump, charging up a Crunch and then switching to Swampert, and even letting Gyarados just bite it, but Obstagoon is just able to weather so much while being able to throw out charge move after charge move. Worse yet, I’m starting to see Obstagoon being saved in the back once in a while instead and coming in on what was usually a “safe” switch to Snorlax. If there’s any one Pokemon that has felt difficult for all three of my Pokemon to handle, it’s Obstagoon. It’s kind of funny as I was really excited to see what Obstagoon could do in Ultra League when it was announced as I was aware of its well-rounded stats from the main series, and turns out what it can do is tear apart this team that otherwise has seen a ton of success.
Summary/tl;dr: Escavalier’s rise in popularity proved a slight roadblock to the team initially, but farming it for Crunch and switching to Swampert after taking a Megahorn generally works out okay. Obstagoon’s introduction has proved a much more difficult problem to overcome. Right now, it seems that it dismantles the team extremely well.
Current observation and experiences:
When I originally made the team, I was expecting to gain maybe 200 points total, especially after struggling so much in Great League, but it’s performed well beyond my expectations. When I made the top 500 the first time around a couple days ago, I thought that would probably be the team’s peak, and after a slight drop the next day, that prediction seemed to be validated, but after stagnating the day after, the team brought around another 160 points in two days. I would not be surprised if it stagnated at this point or fell a little bit, but I’ve been more than impressed with how well the team has performed.
Lead situations:
Cresselia: The strategy with Cresselia still works really well even now, to the point where I’m actually generally relieved to see it as the lead. Moonblast debuffs are no doubt annoying, but if they miss both, I’m put in an extremely good position.
Giratina-A: Giratina-A is more common, and they’re shielding that Crunch now. Depending on IVs and moveset, Gyarados sometimes gets a second Crunch off, but just being able to make Giratina-A use a shield is really helpful as Snorlax can come in after Gyarados faints and farm a ton of energy as Giratina-A will usually have around only 25%-35 of its health left, and if it switches out immediately, there’s a Swampert in the back that will now have shield advantage if a counter to Snorlax is switched in. If it’s running Shadow Claw, regardless of IVs, it will need to spend an extra Dragon Claw to prevent the second Crunch from happening, but with Dragon Breath and the right IVs, it can freely farm with Dragon Breath after the second Dragon Claw without worrying about the Crunch coming out.
Giratina-O: Giratina-O is much the same story, with Gyarados being able to take a Shadow Ball and force a shield or KO with Crunch. A shield can be attempted instead of taking the Shadow Ball, leading to enough energy for a second Crunch if they shield Gyarados’s first Crunch, but the fact that Crunch comes out after Shadow Ball means they have an opportunity to simply take the first Crunch and bring in something that can potentially put me in a dangerous situation if they happen to have something that thrives off of shield advantage like Registeel. Plus, there’s always the risk that they’re attempting to bait the shield with Ominous Wind instead.
Registeel: Registeel leads have also become much more common, and as of last night, I’ve started employing two different strategies depending on the move they favor: if I see Flash Cannon as the favored move, I build up a Hydro Pump and let it go. Either they use up a shield, or most of Registeel is gone. If the Registeel does put up a shield, Gyarados can get one more Crunch off before being forced to shield or faint, and I’d say the latter is the better choice so as not to lose shield advantage as Swampert will be able to clean up Registeel and potentially get the possible Giratina-A switch in to use a shield or lose half its health, allowing for Snorlax to later come in and farm it unless they just so happen to also have a counter to Snorlax (which, with two shields, may still be possible to play around!); if I see Focus Blast, I instead opt for using two Crunches and then farming Registeel the rest of the way down, sacrificing a shield to do so but gaining a Crunch use in the process. If Registeel shields any of the Crunches, I just shield an additional Focus Blast or Flash Cannon. Flash Cannon gets charged faster than Crunch, but Crunch gets charged faster than Focus Blast.
Armored Mewtwo: Pretty much the same as earlier on, but I’ve seen more frequent switches after the second Psystrike was shielded to try and get a quick KO on Gyarados. Be ready to possibly fire off that Crunch if you see Armored Mewtwo light up once both sides are at a slight sliver of health or risk losing all that saved up energy. Luckily, the fastest quick KO option is generally Dragon Breath Giratina-A, so just letting the Crunch loose will reap a great reward and give an ample farming opportunity to Snorlax. Slightly less common at this level.
Swampert: Gyarados still wins this match-up pretty handily, so there’s not much to say here. Hydro Pump nearly OHKOs, too.
Alolan Muk: Seen very little of this one surprisingly in the higher MMR. I still use the same strategy as before, but an unshielded Hydro Pump can basically net a KO alongside the prior damage from Dragon Breath.
Articuno: Articuno leads have pretty much dropped off by this point for the most part, but I still employ the same strategy as before, and it’s usually successful
Gyarados: I’ve shifted my strategy slightly to instead build up a Crunch and switch to Snorlax right before to hopefully take the opposing Gyarados’s Crunch. I could see an argument for just letting both Gyarados KO each other, but I prefer to err on the side of consistency rather than risking losing a crucial tie and picking between using up a shield or letting my Snorlax take a bunch of unnecessary damage without Crunch-ready Gyarados to back it up against a potential Giratina-A.
Snorlax: Saw lead Snorlax for the first time today. This is another lead where it feels like the best option is to build up a Crunch and switch out after it uses a Body Slam, bringing in Swampert. It’s also possible opt for a Hydro Pump instead so as to not lose switch advantage and potentially gain shield advantage, but I’ve never tried that personally, so I don’t know if Snorlax would be able to build up energy after shielding it to hit the incoming Swampert hard after Gyarados faints.
Scizor: Not really any changes to my strategy here. It is far less common, especially with Escavalier seemingly being the preferred Bug/Steel type lately. Speaking of which...
Escavalier: As mentioned before, I find it best to take a Megahorn and switch to Swampert in order to have the best chance of turning things around even if that may invite a Giratina-A. I have literally never seen an Escavalier try to bait with Drill Run, but if it does, Gyarados can probably stay in longer and fire off a Crunch and build up some energy for another to boot. Gyarados should be able to take a Drill Run and Megahorn, but I actually don’t have the experience to say that with 100% confidence. I’ve also seen Acid Spray run once in a while, which gives another reason to not risk shielding the Megahorn.
Perrserker: An awkward match-up for Gyarados. It’ll get two charge moves off before Gyarados can, forcing a shield use or Gyarados loss. Thankfully quite uncommon. Like with Escavalier, Gyarados can take a charge move after getting Crunch ready and switch to Swampert, but if it comes down to Snorlax against Perrserker later on, Close Combat pretty much ensures that Snorlax will lose unless Snorlax has at least some charge on Earthquake ready to go.
Fairies: Same strategy as in the past. It’s simply too costly to stick around and try to get a Crunch ready unfortunately.
Lapras: Lack of Outrage call-out potential makes Lapras more difficult to deal with. If Lapras opts to use Ice Beam, and I incorrectly predicted a Surf bluff, even if they never shield any Crunches, not only will Gyarados lose (and a shield forced to protect from a Surf after the Ice Beam to get it in reasonable range of Lick farming), but a Snorlax switch in will be forced to take a Surf. Otherwise, if they Surf first, Gyarados can probably comfortably shield the next charge attack and either force them to shield or win outright with Crunch. Lapras in general is a bit of a problem for this team, so caution should be used against it.
Melmetal: This and the next Pokemon are easily the worst leads for this team to face. Melmetal can hit both Snorlax and Gyarados for super effective damage with its charge moves, and a quick switch to Swampert invites in Giratina-A. Still not entirely sure what to do with this one, much like the next one, but thankfully, it’s much less common than the other leads seen here.
Obstagoon: Obstagoon’s bulk, ease of throwing out charge moves, good match-up against Snorlax, chance to raise its attack, and the team’s lack of Fighting, Fairy, or Bug coverage make this a nightmarish lead to face. If the opposing team lacks a Giratina or Grass type, an immediate Swampert switch may get the job done, but that’s a big if, especially considering the ubiquity of the former. Due to the new toy factor, it’s a little more common than Melmetal right now, but I’m hoping to see its usage decrease soon enough here.
Other match-ups:
Cresselia: Both Snorlax and Swampert can comfortably go toe-to… fins (?) against Cresselia in my experience, with a small exception for the latter if Cresselia is running Grass Knot, but even then he can put some hurt on it if he’s got a shield advantage. Attack drops can force a switch, but this team can deal with two attack drops if it needs to. Three however becomes much trickier, but I’d imagine not too many teams could deal very well with Moonblast managing to get three attack drops in one match.
Giratina-A: Snorlax can farm a Giratina-A with Shadow Claw extremely well. Generally, it’s best if the Giratina-A is at least at half health, though, as past that, the Dragon Claws will start to catch up with Snorlax. Dragon Breath Giratina is a bit harder for Snorlax and the team in general, but Snorlax can get at least one Earthquake in and a Body Slam before going down on top of being able to take off about 30-35% of its health with Lick alone. Swampert can get in one Earthquake against either variation and potentially two with even a little prior energy built up, taking off half its health conveniently enough. I usually make sure not to have Snorlax drop before this comes out or until I know all three Pokemon; a Crunch-ready Gyarados can take some pressure off of Snorlax, though.
Giratina-O: Snorlax walls this of course. Swampert Earthquake doesn’t quite OHKO it, but it does put it in range for a follow-up Hydro Cannon to KO.
Registeel: Snorlax being able to force a shield or put them in Hydro Cannon+Mud Shot KO range with Earthquake is a blessing. Don’t really need to explain Swampert here. Just need to keep an eye on how much it’s charged up as better Trainers may try to bluff a Focus Blast against Swampert with Flash Cannon to waste a shield.
Armored Mewtwo: Not much has changed here. Slightly less common at this level than the previous, and I oddly haven’t seen Dynamic Punch lately, but that may just be because the ones I did face opted to try and bait a shield with Psystrike before switching out when faced with Snorlax.
Swampert: Same as in the past. Try to avoid Swampert v Swampert scenarios, though, as lost ties can be devastating.
Alolan Muk: Not much change besides the fact that, again, Gyarados’s Hydro Pump can rip through most of its health. Snorlax's Earthquake also allows it to be more threatening in this match-up.
Snorlax: Same strategies generally employed as before. Have been seeing more Superpower Snorlaxes recently however, so I may need to be more cautious about that possibility.
Scizor: Not much changed except that it no longer walls Snorlax, making it even easier to handle.
Escavalier: Swampert takes a slightly uncomfortable amount of damage from Drill Run, but it can win even with a one shield disadvantage. Snorlax struggles with Counter, but it can generally get the Earthquake off before fainting, dealing a hefty amount. Not sure if it can without prior energy generation or a shield, however. It'd be close.
Fairies: Snorlax generally has the bulk to beat them. Swampert can beat them if they have one shield or less usually, but trading out Sludge Wave for Earthquake has made that match-up a little more difficult. Thankfully they are rarer here, though.
Lapras: Both Swampert and Snorlax lose this match-up I believe but wear it down enough for the other to be able to farm it.
Meganium: With only two charge attacks that do neutral damage to Meganium, I’ve been reliving Great League whenever this things pops up. Thankfully, it’s become incredibly rare, but if my Gyarados just barely wins a lead match-up against the likes of Cresselia, seeing Meganium pop in and farm him down while easily withstanding a Crunch probably means gg for me.
Melmetal: Unless it’s just switched in, and I can switch to Swampert, this is a pretty poor match-up overall for the team. Gyarados’s Hydro Pump and Snorlax’s Earthquake can do good damage if they're unshielded, but both are very hard to pull off.
Obstagoon: If I’ve just safe-switched to Snorlax, and this thing comes out, it’s gg. Otherwise, Swampert can probably take it, but I’ve never been able to get it stuck in with Swampert. Gyarados’s Hydro Pump is the only other chance this team has to do some real damage to Obstagoon. Outside of a really out-there super off-meta pick, Obstagoon is easily the worst Pokemon for this team to face I feel.
Summary:
Overall, while this team has a slightly anti-meta bent to it, it’s also meta enough to still hold its own against most match-ups. Rank 9 definitely has a smaller pool of Pokemon used, meaning I’ve had to lean more into anti-meta picks for charge moves, but depending on where I’ve been on the ladder, I’ve always felt I could stick a move on one of the Pokemon to cover a weak point that’s begun being repeatedly exploited.
Strengths of the team:
Fantastic lead match-ups against some of the most common lead Pokemon (Cresselia, both Giratinas, Swampert, and Registeel) while still being able to gain something from a more neutral (Escavalier, Snorlax, or Lapras) or even poor (Articuno or Cresselia with first Moonblast attack drop) match-up.
Two good back-ups for iffier lead match-ups.
Good match-ups against nearly every meta-relevant Pokemon across the board.
Lack of shared weaknesses.
Can be slightly adjusted to better fit the meta trends of your rank or MMR with options for better punishing Fairies, Grass Pokemon, and even Melmetal and Obstagoon if you’re willing to sacrifice coverage against Giratina for Super Power on Snorlax.
Outside of Snorlax (or a replacement Lickilicky) and Magikarp’s evolution cost, very cheap investment.
No having to deal with all the hurdles of finding even one legendary with good PVP stats, including the worry that investing in one with less than ideal stats might end up being a massive waste of resources should you eventually find a much better one.
Weaknesses of the team:
Slight lack of resistances to common types in the meta such as Ice, Fairy, Dark, and Psychic.
Slight lack of coverall bulk comparatively, with Snorlax being the only truly bulky member by Ultra League standards.
Glaring weaknesses to lead Melmetal and Obstagoon in general unless Snorlax’s match-up with Giratina-A is slightly compromised.
Glaring weaknesses to Grass types, particularly Meganium, unless Snorlax’s match-up with Registeel is greatly compromised, Gyarados’s type coverage is somewhat compromised, or Swampert’s match-up with Registeel is slightly compromised and match-up with Giratina-A and Giratina-O greatly compromised.
Slight lack of bulk and Fairy resistance causes the team to have a bit of trouble with Fairy-type Charm users, particularly teams with two.
Requires a Swampert with the Community Day or Elite Charge TM exclusive Hydro Cannon
Improvements that could be made:
As mentioned before, there may be a time where I decide that adding Super Power over Earthquake is the best choice to make for Snorlax in order to combat Obstagoon (and Melmetal) if it begins becoming common enough. From what I can tell, that probably won’t happen as it seems to struggle with Cresselia, a very common lead, and potentially Dragon Breath Giratina, but that is an option I can go with if I start seeing too many running around. In the vast majority of cases, Lick and Body Slam do well enough against even Giratina-A on this team, and Super Power still hits Registeel pretty hard to boot, so I wouldn’t be compromising on that other important match-up. Additionally, it could surprise Lapras as well, another match-up the team struggles with somewhat. That said, the commonality of Giratina-A can’t be overlooked, so I will need to see if it’s worth sacrificing somewhat niche situations against a particular variant of a very common Pokemon for a Pokemon that’s becoming slightly more common lately and a couple of other difficult match-ups.
Gyarados’s IVs aren’t perfect. He has a little bit more attack than a rank 1 Gyarados but also a little less defense, meaning that a rank 1 Gyarados might actually be able to more consistently get a second Crunch off against a lead Giratina-A trying to farm energy after a second Dragon Claw.
On a similar note, 5/14/15 also are not perfects IVs for Snorlax. I personally do not know if the additional attack actually lets her hit a break point against Giratina or Cresselia with Lick or not, but if not, then the slight lack of defense compared to a rank 1 may not allow her to win some match-ups that a rank 1 Snorlax might.
Overall thoughts:
I’ve had a lot more fun with this team than any other I’ve used in GBL. No, it’s not perfect, and it has its weaknesses, even a couple glaring if uncommon ones, but after struggling for months in Great League particularly, feeling like I’ve won or lost at the lead or, when using a less polarized lead, feeling like I had to choose between countering two of popular Pokemon A, B, or C, and seeing the one not picked always end up popping up, it actually feels really nice that in the majority of situations with this team, I can think through a situation and manage to turn around even a bad lead. Maybe my Great League team comp was bad (teams used include: Bastiodon/Deoxys-D/Cherrim, Deoxys-D/Charizard/Meganium, Skarmory/Deoxys-D/Cherrim, Deoxys-D/Bastiodon/Cherrim, and Bastiodon/Deoxys-D/Shiftry). In fact, until Obstagoon showed up, no lead really felt unwinnable, and that was an immaculate feeling. Every loss felt more on my play rather than my team not having a chance from the word go, and most of the time, it still feels that way.
If you’ve got the Pokemon or ones that are similar, you’ve been struggling in Ultra League, and you want a comparatively low-investment team to try out, I’d recommend this team for sure. There is a bit of a learning curve compared to the higher-investment teams out there, but it definitely pays off once you get the hang of it.
submitted by _KERO_ to TheSilphArena [link] [comments]

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 4 Analysis and Picks

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 4 Analysis and Picks
Thursday Night Recap: That was nice. We put in 1 singles play and it was cashed by the end of the first half. The BBDLS we put in had many opportunities! Unfortunately, in the end, Darnold was not picked off and that bet was lost.
Singles (1-0,+2.5u)
Parlays (none)
Teasers (none)
BBDLS (0-1, -0.37u)
All in all a positive night. Lets see what the first Sunday in October has to offer! 😎

https://preview.redd.it/9v6becefj3r51.jpg?width=790&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=06d2feab30c82b1f6a3d7f8f69ec1bbed31ffebe
1PM Games

IND at CHI: Both teams seem severely untested, beating opponents with a combined record of 1-8. Indy lost to the Jags in the home opener as a rather sizeable favorite and their only two wins have come against teams who's season is basically over.
Conversely CHI is 3-0, but all three of their games had to be won in the 4th quarter, two come from behind and one holding off the garbage time Giants. Also, Chicago switched QBs mid game? I mean, it worked but Mitch was 2-0 to start the season and although he had thrown a pick in the first half, wasn't playing horrible...
Honestly, I think this will be one of the first tests for both of these teams. I think both QBs are above average, when they have a run game, at picking off zone defenses. But if their run game is tested, it leads to some shaky QB play.
*** Extra note: Colts coach, Frank Reich, was with the Philadelphia Eagles as quarterback coach when Foles replaced Carson Wentz and won Super Bowl MVP. "He was the one who really figured me out as a player," Foles said of Reich's tutelage in 2017. *** Does this mean Reich knows Foals strength's and weaknesses? Will River's even need to do anything in this game besides hand the ball off and watch his defense?
Side note to that, Foals has a QBR of 105 when he's a backup. When he is a starter it is 88.
It's only a lean as there is very little data on Foal's as a Bears QB, but my algo is leaning Colts/Under.

NO at DET: A battle of two 1-2 teams here. One will stabilize at .500 and one will have a big hill to climb. NO lost their last two games, but both were without star Michael Thomas playing. He looks to return this game. Detroit struggled in their first two but got their star WR back in Galloday and were able to pull off an upset in AZ last week. The Lions big hole seems to be run defense, so Kamara may be in for another big day. However, if the Lions take an early lead their run D might not come into play as much.
To me, this game is going to come down to Saints injuries. Is Thomas back and healthy? Will Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins, who were both listed on the Thursday injury report, play? Also tight end Jared Cook, defensive end Marcus Davenport, and guard Andrus Peat all missed practice on Friday. With this many holes, and Brees having trouble finding anyone other than Kamara... I could see another Lions upset here. If everyone comes back healthy and its both teams at full strength, my algo has NO as -8. But with the amounting injuries, this could be another, any given Sunday.

ARZ at CAR: Another interesting match up for ARZ here. The algo predicted to be weary of them last week vs. DET and not only did DET cover, they outright won. Give AZ some credit though. Three turnovers and they still had a chance to win at the end of the game.
Going from a team that was a TD favorite and lost to a team that was a TD underdog last week and won...Carolina got their first win last week over the LA Chargers. Honestly Bridgewater looked good. Their defense still isn't great and had a tough time against the run giving up over 5 ypc to 3 different RBs and 80 yards to Eckler in the air. The loss of CMC is clearly showing when the Panthers get in the red zone. If they just finished half the times they were in the red zone with a TD instead of a FG, that game would have been over by halftime.

JAX at CIN: Jax coming off a disappointing loss to MIA last Thursday. CIN coming off the first tie of the season vs. the Eagles. I am rather high on Burrows this year. I think he and Matt Ryan and Gardner Minshew will have similar betting years. Lose a lot of games, cover a lot of spreads.
Burrows was sacked 8 times last week yet he put up some very decent numbers and gave his team a chance to get their first win. This week he goes against a Jax secondary that is one of the worst in the league. This is one of my keys to the game for both teams, and why I have this as a virtual coin flip. Burrow has been sacked 14 times in 3 games and Jax has 3 TOTAL sacks in 3 games. If Jax continues the Burrow pressure, I favor Minshew and Robinson. If Jax continues to let opposing Qbs have time in the pocket, I believe Burrows will pick them apart just like Fitzmagic did.
This looks like a great game to play both sides. I do like Burrows and he is giving his team every opportunity this year. However, +2.5 in a "coin flip" game is my FAVORITE number to tease. A standard 6 point teaser takes you through FOUR KEY NUMBERS in 3, 4, 6, and 7, up to +8.5.

Cle at DAL: There are two games this week that were really hard for me to get a vibe on. This is the first. Dallas is like the baby brother to Seattle in my opinion. If Dallas was at full strength and had that defense we saw them producing last year, I would almost say they would be the big brother, but right now they are the little Seattle. Bad offense, but a good QB that can make plays and extend drives (Russ is obviously better)
Cleveland however looks like they might find an identity like Tennessee had last year. Very Run first/play action later and eventually crack one or two deep balls to take the momentum and ultimately games. It's because of this style of matchup I am truly unsure which is the most +EV side here. Dallas should be the favorite. Their offense has more weapons than...probably anyone in the league right now and they are at home. But 4.5/5 points? Why isn't this closer to 2.5/3. If Cleveland doesn't fall behind, their style of play vs this weakened Dallas defense should EAT. Pounding the rock and setting up Baker to launch 40 yard bombs to Odell on the sideline and 25 yard crosses to Landry in enough space to rack up YAC?
What's confusing about the line is Vegas should know that Cleveland has a chance to win, and also that Cleveland is 2-1 to the Dallas 1-2. Yet they still jack up the points from what I think it should be (2.5/3) all the way to 5.5 opens? Although Last week my algo and my gut favored GB and Vegas had moved the line in NO favor so i switched my lean to the Vegas side and it was wrong. It's weird because both teams can win by two TDs and lose by two TDs. Seems more prudent to skip the sides play (unless you lean heavy cle ml) and look at props. Both teams should have plenty of offense in this game. Even if CLE gets a lead and leans on the run game to crush the TOP battle, expect Dallas and Dak to launch it up there and give plenty of fantasy value.

MIN at HOU: Battle of two winless teams here. MIN had a real shot to win last week vs the Titans. Correctly, they utilized Dalvin Cooks speed and agility to attack the Titans weakness on defense which is stopping the run. Unfortunately, as predicted, their defense is hot trash and gave up 6 field goals to Ten and lost the game in the final 2 mins to one of them.
Houston was leading vs. PIT last week and had the momentum up until a questionable PI call on a PIT 4 and inches that swung the momentum to the PIT side with the Hou offense only gaining 41 yards and 2 first downs in the second half. After that it was all PIT. In this game, I don't see the same. EVEN if MIN can get an early lead and play HOU just like they did TEN, pressing the run game with Cook... Watson is too good not to be able to make some plays vs. this struggling MIN defense.
My algo is favoring HOU here and flags Watson Rush yards 22.5 Over as a VERY favorable prop

SEA at MIA: This is the other game that is a little confusing to me. As usual when capping a MIA game these days, you have to decide if you're going to see Fitzmagic, or Fitzception. Last week, we predicted poorly and Fitzmagic taught the Jags a little lesson. This week is even harder because he's coming off a stock building performance and about to face ANOTHER HORRIBLE DEFENSE. The Seattle D is worst in the league right now. Which is saying something when you see that the Seattle offense is one of the SLOWEST in the league! Taking the play clock down every chance they can and giving their defense every opportunity to rest.
Yet the defense is still blowing coverages and getting burnt in the secondary. The one bright spot in the Seattle defense has been their ability to stop the run. They rank second in opponent's run yards per game at only 67! That's pretty good since they have already faced Gurley, Michel, and Elliot. However, this week Seattle is missing even more pieces on the defensive side of the ball. Jamal Adams on the pass rush and CB Quinton Dunbar are both out for this one. I can see this leaning Fitz more to the magic side than the ception side.
I mean if there is a game this week that shouts take the underdog and the points. It feels like this one. It has all the factors of Seattle missing players, traveling 5500 miles east for a 1pm game (which russ is 9-0 in soooo... maybe that stat is worthless here), Mia riding high off a win and extra rest, and most importantly, one of the only games in the first few weeks we have seen some blatant RLM on. Currently I am seeing 71% spread and 90% ML on Seattle, but the line has dropped from a -7 open to -5.5. All this tells me that sharps are seeing some value on the MIA side. And who's to blame them, the team has some chemistry right now and SEA will be traveling across the country to play in 90 degree heat. Maybe I sprinkle some on the MIA ml here? 🤪
Bleh, that was hard to type. My algo has Sea -9 and they are also my preseason favorite to win theNFC...so I hate that I reached the conclusion that Fitz is likely to have one of his better games on the year.🤪

LAC at TB: Hmmm, Chargers coming off a disappointing loss to the struggling panthers. Now traveling east for a 1pm game short a few key players, namely two offensively linemen, to take on one of the better pass rushes in the league. I still am not convinced Brady and this Bucs offense is good yet. Their defense has the last half of last year to back up its start, but the offense struggled in game one and while it has done well in game 2 and 3, it was vs clearly inferior opponents.
Herbert is still an unknown. He, like burrow, look very promising, but facing this pass rush in an early heavy travel game? The addition of Bosa back into the lineup is definitely going to help. Both teams seem to be stronger on the defensive side of the ball so I would expect this game to be lower scoring affair.

BAL at WAS: What can I really say about these next two games. Bal did NOT live up to the expectations in week 3. After watch KC struggle against a Chargers team with a first start QB, Bal let KC look like the team that won the Superbowl. Washington played a close game for the first half-3quarters, but then just unraveled as the game closed. I am expecting Baltimore to come out with a rage from their previous loss and a focus on reestablishing themselves as one of the AFC's premier superbowl contenders.

4PM GAMES

NYG at LAR: This game is basically the same for me. The Rams took their first loss of the season last week vs the undefeated Bills. They struggled early (west coast team traveling east for a 1pm game) going down 28-3. But mounted a comeback to take the lead late in the 4th, only to see a bogus PI and their prevent defense let the game slip away in the final minutes. I am veryyy high on this Rams team and I think they will only get better as a unit as the season continues. The NYG, on the other hand, are clearly the worst team in the NFC East. Which is saying a lot considering that is probably the worst division in football. They just lost a home blowout to the C team 49ers who had like 20 people on IR. And just to show how bad the Giants were last game, they didn't make SF put ONE time in that game. They also NEVER made a trip to the red zone...
While they may not start off the first quarter as hot as the Ravens, I expect the Rams to win convincingly.

Ne at KC: Well it looks like this game is a no go. I was very heavy on the NE side as my algo has this as NE +4. I put it in my early week pre research parlay and just this morning Draftkings voided it due to the Covid concerns. As I type this I am not sure if they game is even going to be played. If it somehow does, and all first team starters play, I love the NE side. I expect KC to do their thing, but giving Bellicheck and Cam a whole TD to cover?! Too much for me to pass on.

BUF at LVR: Josh Allen and the Bills offense looked great in the first half vs zone defense. But once the Rams started blitzing it was over for Allen. The Raiders have looked good in all 3. They did get outplayed by NE in that one but as expected, Bellichek knows how to shut most people down. My algo has this one as Bills -1 so I may have to jump on the home dog catching points.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Philly at SF: I have no stats to back this up. Philly is crap, we know this. But we also know that no team is ever as bad as they looked at their worst. They are in the WORST division in football, so 0-2-1 is not a death sentence for them. I expect them to give it everything in this particular game. Especially with half the 49ers team still on IR. It's possible that Philly lays a fat egg like the Giants last week, but I think Philly is more stout up front and will slow down SF's running game and make Mullens beat them.


Singles (10-14, -6u)
  • Johnathon Taylor 79.5 Rush Yards Over (2.3u to win 2u)
  • Johnathon Taylor Anytime TD (2.5u to win 2u)
  • T.J. Hockenson 46.5 Rec Yards Over (1.5u to win 1u)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick & Russell Wilson 300+ Passing Yards Each @ +300 (1u to win 3u)
  • James Robinson 16.5 Rec Yards Over (2.3u to win 2u)
  • Watson 22.5 Rush Yards Over (4.5u to win 4u)
  • HOU -2.5 (3u to win 1.95u)
  • BAL 1Q -3.5 (2u to win 2u)
  • CLE 1Q +0.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
  • LAC/TB 44.5 Under (2.86u to win 2u)
  • Myles Gaskin 4 Reception Over (3.5u to win 3u)
  • PHL +7.5 (2.2u to win 2u) Sadly put this in before the recent injury update and points movement :( Still like the Philly side, just missed some free points.
  • Nelson Agholor 35.5 Rec Yards Over (2u to win 2u)
  • Darren Waller 5.5 Receptions Over (2.1u to win 2u)
Parlays (0-6, -22.15u)
  • BAL -7.5, TB 48.5u, CLE +10, AZ 45o, CIN +4, PHL +14.5 (3.24u to win 26.19u)
  • HOU ml, TB ml, DET ml, BAL -9.5, LAR -9.5, NE +10.5 (2.5u to win 25.28u) Put this in early when I liked some DET ml sprinkle. It was before the NE game was called off so the odds reduced from 16-1 to 10-1
  • CLE +8.5, HOU ml, BAL -8.5, LAR -8.5 (2.5u to win 10.55u)
Teasers (1-3, +28.85u)
  • None
BBDLS (0-15, -12.97u)
  • I have 4 BBDLS bet for a total of 2.8u
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]

Green and Gold| Part 2| The Takeover: How did that happen?

According to a report published by MUST in July 2019, due to the Glazer takeover of Manchester United, at the then-current payoff rate, United would not be debt-free for another 158 years.[1] Meanwhile, "in the fourteen years since [Glazer] took control at Old Trafford," "just £44million of the more than £660m initially taken out to buy the club has been paid back," while "some £750million has left the club’s bank account simply to service the debt."[1]
In the next installment of our Green and Gold series we will take a closer look at the financial impact of the Glazer takeover and subsequent ownership. But for now, seeing these numbers begs the question: the takeover? How the hell did that happen?
Timeline of Events: A Mini-Guide to a Takeover
The Glazer takeover occurred over multiple years - and multiple bids. The following timeline, created by BBC,[1] provides an overview of the major events, and is included here as a guide for following along with the rest of this post:
Glazer Joins the Ownership Fray
In March 2003, Malcolm Glazer began purchasing shares of Manchester United via a holding company - "Red Football." [1] Initially, the investment was small - approximately 3% of the club. [1] [2]
From there, Mr. Glazer quickly began accumulating shares. By February 2004, Malcolm had accumulated a 16.31% interest in the club, and released a statement saying "he was 'considering options' over Manchester United." [1] [2]
Let the Bidding Begin
On Monday, October 4, 2004, United confirmed it had received a takeover approach, thought to be from Glazer. [1] By that time, Glazer had become United's second largest shareholder, with a holding of 19%. [1] The partnership of John Magnier and JP McManus (through their company, Cubic Expression), owned 29%, and were the club's largest shareholders. [Id.]
The bid would not be accepted.
Undeterred
In the following two weeks, Glazer purchased multiple small tranches of stock to increase his stake. On Friday, October 15, Glazer spent £45m to purchase 15.4 million shares. [1] On the following Monday, October 18, 2004, Glazer spent £17m to boost his overall ownership interest to 27.63%. [1] And on Tuesday, October 19, he purchased a tranche of 1.27 million shares at 285p/share (at a total cost of £3.6m), to boost his holding in the club to 28.11%. [1]
The incremental purchases were important. At the time, under UK law, "anyone who owns a 30% stake in a company is obliged to make an offer for the rest of the company at the price at which they bought their last tranche of shares." [1]
Upon announcement of the purchase, the club's stock price on the London Stock Exchange dipped down 1.5p, to 283.5p. [1]
The additional purchases were reportedly not well-received received by United supporters.
Fan Backlash
According to the BBC, after the October 2004 takeover bid (rumored to be valued at approximately £800m), supporters' groups "were livid, furiously protesting against the [Glazer] proposal." [1]
Sean Bones, of Shareholders United, speaking to the alleged Glazer bid, told BBC Sport at the time: "It's a terrible thing. We don't want a situation where the club is used as part of a loan deal. He will have to take out a large loan and the most likely way of repaying that will be increasing ticket prices." [1]
The opposition to the Glazer bid was not soft-spoken:
Independent Manchester United Supporters Association chairman Jules Spencer has warned: "If Glazer wants a fight, we will give him one."
And Bones, whose group held "Not4Sale" banners outside Old Trafford stadium on Monday, added: "Supporters groups are linking together to defend the club.
"The focus of attention will be to call on all supporters to become shareholders. It will be much cheaper for supporters to own the shares and have an influence on the club.
"Supporters who hold shares want the profits to stay in the club and to go to the benefit of the team and stadium improvements while still having reasonably priced tickets.
"The larger shareholders want profits to be taken away from the club." [1]
An open letter was subsequently sent to then MUFC Chief Executive David Gill asking him to tell the London Stock Exchange's Takeover Panel to order Mr. Glazer to clarify his intentions. If so instructed, the Panel would impose a deadline on Glazer to make a formal bid --- which, if not met, would prohibit an additional takeover bid for 6 months. [1]
Some of the protests were more visible.
United director Maurice Watkins became a target after selling £1m worth of shares to Glazer, and his black Jaguar was daubed with red paint by militant fans' group Manchester Education Committee (MEC).
Its members also invaded the pitch during a United reserve game against Birmingham to protest, while the Red Action Group campaign outside the offices of investment bank JP Morgan, who had been advising Glazer on his bid, before marching to the Stock Exchange. [1]
Meanwhile --- Glazer continued to negotiate with Magnier and McManus over a purchase of their interest. [1]
Glazer "Takes Revenge" and Bids Again
In November, one month after the initial, unsuccessful bid, "the 76-year-old [took] revenge on the club for refusing his stalked takeover bid by blocking the re-elections of United directors Watkins, Andy Anson and Philip Yea at their Annual General Meeting."[1] The action "cost [Glazer,] as JP Morgan dropped him as a client." [1]
One month later (and only two months after the initial bid), in December 2004 Glazer submitted his second takeover bid. David Gill reportedly "snubbed" the offer.[1] The second bid, and the work of Glazer's agents, did not help to improve his image with United's fans.
Following the failed bid, Bob Leffler, a Baltimore, Maryland based PR agent working for Glazer, "claimed fans' fears of the takeover [were] based on 'xenophobia.'" [1] Leffler also said in October 2004 that it was not Glazer's habit to stress his investments with burdensome debt. [1] In response, Mr. Leffler's firm was "targeted with abusive emails and unwanted pizza deliveries." [1]
The Third Bid is Not the Charm
Glazer did not relent. In February 2005, a third bid was received, this one heralded by two of Glazer's sons: Avi and Joel. [1] According to the Financial Times, investment bank NM Rothschild stood behind this bid, at an increased offer of £3 per share. [1]
Fans' anger continued to mount, and the opposition to Glazer's proposed takeover became "even fiercer." [1] MEC "issued threats against the American and his family and any financial institutions involved in supporting the bid on their website and Shareholders United gathered for a peaceful protest in the Old Trafford car park." [1]
United players joined the debate. Then-record-signing Rio Ferdinand and Ryan Giggs both indicated there was no need for ownership to change. [1] Ole Solskjaer also added his voice. On February 15, 2005, Solskjaker accepted an appointment as "the patron of Shareholders United, a group [] vehemently opposed to Glazer's [] takeover plan." [1] Upon accepting, Solskajer said: "I am honoured. I think it is important that the club remains in the right hands. I am absolutely on the supporters' side and think the club is in very good hands as it is today. I am a United fan myself and only want what is best for the future." [1]
Sir Alex Ferguson likewise stated publicly that he opposed the takeover, [1] commenting in November 2004 to a fans' forum that: "There is a stronger rapport between the club and the fans than there has ever been," he said. "We are both of a common denominator; we don't want the club to be in anyone else's hands. That is the way that the club stands with that. I support that." [1]
The third Glazer bid was again unsuccessful. However the chips were beginning to line up --- all Glazer needed for the takeover to be successful would be the support of Cubic Expression - the investment vehicle of horse racing tycoons John Magnier and JP McManus, who at the time still stood as United's biggest shareholder with nearly 29%. [1]
Glazer Wins Control.
On April 28, 2005, the United board indicated it would not recommend Glazer's takeover bid. However, it did not outright reject the bid, either. Instead, the board drew a line down the middle, noting that:
"The board remains of the view that the assumptions in the Glazer business plan are aggressive," United said in a statement. "The board recognises, however, that the price of 300p per share is a fair one and may be attractive to some shareholders of Manchester United.
"Given the board's concerns about the potential impact [of large debts on a debt-free, profitable company] of the proposal, the board has informed Glazer that it cannot provide a recommendation to shareholders to accept any offer made on the basis of the current proposal." [1]
As a result of the Board's statement, the London Exchange's Takeover Panel gave Glazer a "put up or shut up" deadline of May 17 to announce whether he intended to make yet another bid. [1] [2] Given the deadline, it was reported that Glazers would use "fear factor tactics" to persuade McManus and Magnier to sell. [1]
However, this would not be necessary. On Thursday, May 12, 2005, Glazer "won control of Manchester United in a £790m ($1.47bn) takeover bid," with McManus and Magnier selling their 28.7% stake for 300p a share. [1] The bid came just five days ahead of the May 17 deadline. [1] The bid was for the same 300p per share previously offered in 2004. [1]
With that purchase, Malcolm Glazer was able to delist the club from the London Stock Exchange. This step was important - as by "delist[ing] from the stock exchange [] Mr. Glazer could transfer his debt onto the club." [1]
Immediately following the acceptance of the bid, "heavy trading" took place. [1] It was reported that " United's third-biggest shareholder Scottish mining millionaire Harry Dobson [was] already reported to have sold his 6.45% stake after the Irishmen sold theirs," and "[s]hares in Manchester United closed up 34.25 pence, or 12.92%, at 299.25p." [1]
By June 2005, Glazer owned "98% of the Old Trafford club," which "[took] him past the 97.6% level needed to force a compulsory buyout of remaining shareholders" [1] The club, now delisted, belonged to Malcolm Glazer.
Fan Reaction
The successful bid only animated fans:
Some Manchester United fans are so upset that in the last few weeks they have burned Mr. Glazer in effigy outside the stadium, ripped up their season tickets, threatened to disrupt future games and urged a boycott of the team's merchandise and products from sponsors like Nike, which, coincidentally, is an American company.
"That man is not welcome at Old Trafford," said Oliver Houston, spokesman for Shareholders United, a group representing small investors in the team, which had been a publicly traded company. Meanwhile, a militant fan group called the Manchester Education Committee declared Old Trafford to be "occupied territory" and vowed not to rest until it had forced Glazer to sell the team.
The Independent Manchester United Supporters' Association, yet another fans group, is asking supporters to wear black and wave black flags at the Football Association Cup final between Manchester United and Arsenal on Saturday in Cardiff, Wales. [1]
Fans protested outside the stadium last night and an effigy of the new owner was burned, along with season ticket forms, [while] fans chanted and carried banners that said "Not For Sale." [1] [2] [Image]
Fans also questioned Glazer's silence on their intentions for the club:
For Tony Peoples, 35, who works in a paper mill, the problem has to do with attitude. Why, he wondered, has Mr. Glazer not come to Old Trafford to talk to the fans? Why has he not mentioned Manchester United's proud history, its traditions, its larger-than-life importance? "It would be nice if he'd come out and say something and appease people, and put their worries to rest," Mr. Peoples said. [1]
The Rumor Mill: Why did Magnier and McManus Sell?
"In the eyes of many United supporters, Ferguson was to blame for the hugely divisive Glazer takeover in May 2005, with the Florida-based owners of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers profiting from a situation purely of Ferguson’s making. The prevailing view was that, if Ferguson had not become embroiled in a row with the Irish racehorse owners, John Magnier and JP McManus, over his share of stud fees from the Classic-winning Rock of Gibraltar, they in turn would not have slowly stockpiled United shares before selling them to the Glazers. " [1] Stated differently, "many supporters believe the dispute between Ferguson and [Magnier and McManus] eventually led to the Glazer family taking control of United following their purchase of Magnier and McManus’s shares." [1]
So what exactly happened between Sir Alex and MagnieMcManus?
In 2001, Sir Alex Ferguson "was registered ... as a 50 percent owner of the horse [called Rock of Gibraltar] with Susan Magnier, wife of John [Magnier.]" [1] At the time, Sir Alex was known to be "close friends" with Magnier and McManus. [1]
From that day forward, "the horse ran in the colours of the 'Red Devils.'" [1] However, Sir Alex reportedly "hadn't actually paid any money for his share in the horse or contributed to its expensive upkeep." [1] The horse went on to win seven Group 1 races in succession in Ireland, England, and France, and was dubbed by some as the 'wonder horse' of its generation. [1] By the time the horse retired, the stud fee was estimated to potentially be as high as £50m - a figure estimated to dwarf what Sir Alex made for managing United. [1] However, when it came time to decide the details on the horse's future, Magnier and Ferguson reportedly fell at odds. Magnier reportedly indicated "the ownership was a nominal honour that would entitle Alex Ferguson to 50 per cent of Rock of Gibraltar's earnings on the racetrack of £1,164,804 or one stud nomination a year in Ireland and one in Australia, where the horse would 'stand' in the winter. The probable value of these was over €150,000 a year for an expected 10 years. Ferguson initially insisted on his 50 per cent, but as negotiations proceeded, he held out for 15-20 per cent of the stud value of Rock of Gibraltar." [1]
By 2003, two's relationship had strained. [1] Legal proceedings between the two began in High Court in Dublin --- during the time that Malcolm Glazer began staking a claim in the club. [1]
Magnier and McManus then supposedly "put a series of questions through Cubic Expression to the Manchester United board and its solicitors relating to payments to players, the financial organisation of transfer deals and payments to Ferguson himself" which "delayed negotiations between Manchester United and Ferguson on a new contract and Ferguson ... was now put on a rolling yearly contract." [1] The Guardian described it as "an embarrassing list of '99 questions'." [1]
Included among the inquiries the club undertook from those questions was "a potentially embarrassing internal investigation into recent transfer dealings over allegations that an associate of Ferguson's agent son Jason received a commission for the deal involving goalkeeper Tim Howard." [1]
The fight did not play out behind closed doors, either. As the Independent described the dispute years later:
"These questions found their way into the Daily Mail which increased the scrutiny around United. In response the club announced a review of their transfer dealings from January 2001 to January 2004, to be carried out by then finance director Nick Humby.
As it got closer to the broadcast of the Fergie and Son documentary, and the BBC publicity department released some of Millar’s findings, the tension around the club rose. Then, two days before the broadcast of Fergie and Son, United unexpectedly went public with the details of Humby’s transfer review in a move that looked designed to spike the BBC’s guns." [1]
And in terms of the outcome of the club's investigation:
"Of all the United board’s conclusions, the one that made the headlines was that Jason [Ferguson] and Elite would never again be permitted to “act for the club”, although United admitted that they could not stop him representing United players who were existing clients – there were 13 of them. The club cleared themselves, Sir Alex, Jason and Elite of any wrongdoing in transfers, and revealed hitherto unpublished details of payments to agents. United also set out a new proviso that, in the future, agents should declare any connection to employees of United." [1]
By 2004, Magnier and McManus' ownership stood at 28%, and there were rumors they could attempt to take over the club. [1] Meanwhile, Sir Alex and Magnier resolved their lawsuit with a lump sum payment of £2.5m to Sir Alex. [1] The matter was reportedly brought to a close when Sir Alex made a telephone call to Magnier, then in Barbados, which marked "the first time they had spoken since Ferguson fell out with his friend and launched legal proceedings in January [2003]." [1] [2]
Shortly thereafter - Magnier and McManus sold their shares in United to Glazer. [1]
The Role Played by Ed Woodward
Ed Woodward, a Bristol University physics graduate, began his career with PricewaterhouseCoopers' accountancy and tax advisory department in 1993, qualifying as a chartered accountant in 1996. [1] In 1999, he moved to JP Morgan, where he worked as a senior investment banker in their international mergers and acquisitions team. It was there that he advised the Glazer family on their takeover, and was invited to join the club in 2005. [1] As concerns the role he played in advising Glazer, per the Guardian Woodward "came up with the £275m “payment in kind” hedge fund loans at an initial 14.25% interest, to bridge the gap with a £265m bank loan and £270m the family itself put in." [1] These were the same loans that "[w]hen ... refinanced a year later, the hedge fund debts had escalated by £79.1m, which included a £13.2m charge for “early redemption”. [1]
In 2012, Woodward was interviewed, and asked about the Glazers' ownership. In speaking to the debt, Woodward described it like a mortgage:
Our debt, taking a house comparison, is like a mortgage. And it's small relative to the value of the business. And the person living inside it is getting richer and richer and richer in terms of income every year. [1]
How was this different than other club sales?
The Glazers' takeover bid was unique.
Prior to the sale, the club was debt-free. Following the takeover, "[m]ore than one-third of Mr Glazer's £790m offer for the club [was] debt secured against United's assets, such as its Old Trafford stadium, while a further £275m comes from loans from three US hedge funds." [1] The loans leveraged against the club's assets, "originally worth £265m," were "taken out with three hedge funds - Citadel, Och Ziff and Perry Capital." [1]
At one point, the loans held "interest rates on the debt amounting to approximately £62 million a year. A substantial portion of the loans were payment in-kind loans, which the club was paying 16.25% interest on at one point." [1]
Put simply: "The Glazers used around two-thirds of a billion pounds ($859 million) of debt to finance the purchase of the club," and by delisting, were able to "ma[k]e Manchester United responsible for its repayment." [1] This marked "the first time the club had debt since 1931." [1]
We will take a closer look at the debt, and the club's finances, in the next installment in this series.
Past Installments:
Part One: Who are the Glazers?
Next Installment:
Part Three: The Takeover - Financial Fallout of a Leveraged Buyout (title subject to change)
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