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Detailed DD post [re-post after r/pennystocks removed it]

Detailed DD post [re-post after pennystocks removed it]
I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. A few people messaged me asking for it to be shared in a few High Tide specific pages. So here it is!
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This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios.
I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements.
Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock.
Overview
  • High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
  1. Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
  2. Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
  3. Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
  • Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
  • Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits
Very strong market growth:
  • Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
  • Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
  • Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
  • New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
  1. The US federal legalization debate is on the table
  2. Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
  • Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
  • Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
  • High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
  • Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
  • Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
  • Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
  • Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
  • There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
  • For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
  • Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
  • Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
  • This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
  • Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
  • Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
  • I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
  • Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
  • Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
  • Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management
https://preview.redd.it/nfq8h5fpvmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=f48977ca9c0072003ac71206cef28b0a493dd583
Valuation
  • Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
  • Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive
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https://preview.redd.it/4t4n303rvmg61.png?width=342&format=png&auto=webp&s=636bca248743272bed283af97780d3e1e121312f
  • Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
  • Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
  • The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis
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https://preview.redd.it/1mks0oxrvmg61.png?width=406&format=png&auto=webp&s=587ca8e2468b825103905931ebe7ab5b42314c6f
NB – assumed the following:
  1. Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
  2. The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
  3. Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
  4. The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
Investment Risks & Mitigants / Outstanding DD points
Exposure to changing regulation
  • US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
  • Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
  • Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
  • No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
  • Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price
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https://preview.redd.it/vkrb2ousvmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=40f8f4c65b92efc15af0eba42bb873c774700eff
Potentially misleading cost basis information
  • A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
  • As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
  • Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
  • Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
  • No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
  • Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
  • So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more
If you want to check out the video, it would be appreciated: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
submitted by AlexM-YT to HITIFSTOCK [link] [comments]

How To Value A Stock (From Someone Who Has Beaten The S&P Almost Every Year Since 2008)

I recently wrote this up for my friends who asked me how I do what I do. I figured I'd share it here. This is freely available to anyone who wants it, though please credit me if you simply copy/paste. Nothing here is novel, and can be done by anyone. I am not a financial professional, and the example given below is only Abbvie because I forgot that Abbott Labs was alphabetically the first in the S&P 500 when picking an example.
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First, let’s come right out and say that if you do not have the time to do this, or do not find it enjoyable, just buy low-cost index funds that track either the total market or the S&P 500.
Second, let’s make an important distinction:
Investing – This is the act of purchasing assets for less than their intrinsic value. This PDF will focus on how to determine the intrinsic value of an asset that produces income. Note that for most assets, this is simply how much money you can extract from the asset over the period of time that you hold it for. There’s no other value than money in investing. Causes and emotions are what philanthropy is for.
Speculating – This is, at its core, the act of taking supply of an asset from the present to the future (by hoarding it). If there is more demand, lower supply, or both, this pays the speculator to take the asset from a period of low value to one of high value. It is not gambling, but is very difficult to do, since it entails taking on timing risk. It is not illegal, immoral, or impossible, but I have no special insight into it. I’ll leave it there.
Gambling – This looks a lot like speculation, but without any particular reason to believe the asset will be more valuable in the future. Speculators at least estimate the value of an asset to investors, as they are ultimately the end market for an asset. Do not gamble. Full stop.
Determining the intrinsic value of an asset
The value of an asset is simply the present value of all future income that asset can provide you. Since a dollar in five years is naturally less valuable than a dollar today, you have to discount future income against the opportunity cost of forgoing the dollars you invest today. When we get to the Present Value equation, this is represented by interest. It can also be thought of as the opportunity cost of investing in the asset instead of some other asset or simply consuming the dollars instead.
Here’s the actual math. Note that it’s not super hard, and while I will explain it, there are dozens of free websites that will quickly let you calculate this. The key phrase to Google would be “present value of a growing annuity calculator.”
PV = (C / i - G) * {1 – [(1 + G)/(1 + i)]^n}
PV = present value
C = cash flow per period
n = number of payments
i = interest rate
G = growth rate
The value for PV is your estimation of what the asset is worth today. If this ends up far higher than the market price, you are probably purchasing dollars for quarters. Avoid edge cases, as you are guessing about both the interest and growth rate.
C is the cash flow per period. If you have a high degree of confidence in the culture of the company and it has a long history of being good stewards of retained earnings, you can use the earnings per share (EPS). I usually use the dividend. It is impossible to fake or financially engineer a dividend, and requires less looking through financial documents to make sure it’s what it appears to be. But for, say, Apple or Microsoft or Chevron, feel free to use the EPS.
The number of payments is how many payments you expect while holding the asset. Dividends in American companies are typically quarterly (though some pay monthly or every six months, so check on that), so every multiple of four would represent one year if you choose to do it that way. If n = 16, then you’re expecting to hold the asset for 4 years. You can also put in a year’s worth of dividends and keep n = years rather than quarters.
I typically do n = 30, since 30 years is both a long time horizon that is realistic, and coincides when I will hit “retirement age.” You will have to decide how far ahead you’re planning. For most people, they are net purchasers of investments while working and net sellers while retired, so keep that in mind. Note that using years instead of quarters will lessen the amount of compounding, and will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
Interest is one of the two variables you have to guess at. Typically, one would put what you expect the actual long-run interest rate to average for this investment. Unfortunately, this is really difficult. Instead, I use a rate that represents my opportunity cost. There are any number of relatively safe ways to get a 5% yield on money invested, so I generally use i = 5% to represent that this asset has to perform better than a utility or telecom or real estate investment trust. Feel free to use what you feel is most appropriate for you. A higher interest rate will lower the value of the asset, so high-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
The second variable you have to guess at is the growth rate. If you’re looking at the dividend, you want to know how fast to expect it to grow over time. If you’re using the EPS for C, then you want to see how quickly the total earnings are growing per share. This is extremely difficult to predict. I recommend taking the 5-year growth rate and halving it. Dividends will also be more predictable here, as most companies pay out far less than they make, which means even if EPS grows slowly, the dividend can still grow quickly for many years after a boom is over for the company. Note that lowering your estimate for G will lower the value of the asset, so low-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
OK, so let’s walk through an example. I’ll use Abbvie, a biotech/pharmaceutical company. It has a quarterly dividend for the coming year of $1.30/share. Its dividend has an 18.5% growth rate over the last 5 years, and has grown it for the last 7 (it’s only been around for 8 years).
I assumed a growth rate (G) of 7%. I used $5.20 as the starting dividend this coming year and used years for my n = 30. As always, I used i = 5%.
This gave me an estimated present value of 1 share of Abbvie at $197.94. As of writing this, Abbvie shares are trading on the market at $103.43. This looks like a screaming buy, but first let’s look at why I have a high degree of confidence.
Note how the interest was higher than the going rate – I used my “low-risk alternative” as an opportunity cost. Abbvie has an extremely high rate of growth for its dividend, so I took less than half of its current rate. I also calculated annually rather than quarterly, which reduces the impact of high rates of growth. That’s three places in the equation where I consciously lowered the estimated value of a share of Abbvie, and it still came out as a strong buy – spending less about 50c for a dollar!
I do this because even if I’m wrong in some or all of my predictions, I now have quite a bit of room to be wrong and still make money. It’s like how you don’t walk next to a steep cliff, right? You should know how to walk where you want to, but there’s always the small chance something could cause you to slip or put a foot wrong. But if your plan is always to be 5 feet away from the edge of the cliff, the odds are that you’ll not go over the edge even if you fall down.
Many people feel this is over cautious. But let my portfolio speak for itself. I’ve beaten the S&P 500 index fund every year except one since 2008. My brokerage only keeps digital records back to Dec 2015, but the S&P 500 returned 101% since then – with dividends reinvested. My own portfolio has returned 256%.
So caution is still very high reward. In fact, if you just don’t lose, you’ll do better than the vast majority of professional money managers (about 85% of whom cannot even match the index funds).
Due diligence still has to occur
Now, we can’t just go straight out and buy Abbvie – though it’s a high profile company that receives lots of investor and regulator scrutiny so it’s less likely to have a landmine than most. Just to make sure, you’ll want to do the following before buying shares in this company:
-Check the debt load. If the debt is very high, has very high interest rates, or has a lot of it maturing very soon, then this is a yellow flag. It doesn’t mean don’t buy, but make sure you understand the structure of the company’s debt and make sure it won’t impair the company’s earnings going forward. This information is found on the balance sheet. Abbvie has $97.287 billion in long-term liabilities such as debt, pension liability, and deferred taxes. That’s a lot compared to their assets, but they also are owed some money, so it nets out about $90 billion.
-What’s the book value? Book value is fairly low at $8.65/share. This is pretty much the assets minus the liabilities. Abbvie is in a knowledge industry, however, so you shouldn’t expect their main assets to be physical capital that can be sold. It’s mostly organizational or human capital from their workforce, so this isn’t worrying. If Abbvie was, say, a retailer with stores and land and inventory, you’d want this to be much, much higher for the share price. There’s no easy way to judge this one, unfortunately, but it’s good to look it up and you’ll eventually get a feel for it. No red flags here.
-What are the catastrophic risks that even you or I could think of? For a company in the pharmaceutical space, the obvious answer is regulatory and political risk. Regulatory risk is just want it sounds like – more regulation which can be either costly to comply with or lower profits. This does have an upside, which is that it makes it harder for new competitors to enter a market, so I tend to be rather sanguine about regulatory risk. Political risk is much more severe. This is when politicians decide to either confiscate a company, target it specifically rather than the industry it’s in, or other ways in which the government is involved with taking rather than regulating. In Anglo countries (US/UK/Canada/Australia), the rule of law is typically strong enough that this doesn’t happen much, as there is usually some kind of due process. Places like China, Argentina, Russia, and the EU are much more likely to nationalize or otherwise capriciously penalize a company due to the prevailing political winds. Abbvie has a global footprint, but that also means it’s diversified against such risk. It’s headquartered in the US, so it’s unlikely someone will simply take the entire company.
-Payout ratio? Abbvie has a fairly high payout ratio (80% for the last completed fiscal year of 2019), as they have been aggressively growing the dividend. That’s another good reason to input a much lower G than the last few years. That being said, Abbvie has been around for 8 years (it was spun off of Abbott Labs) and has grown its dividend for the last 7 years and has announced it will this coming year as well. The payout ratio is pretty high, but not worrisome. It suggests a fairly mature company that’s now returning cash to shareholders. I’d say this is not nothing, but less than a yellow flag for me. Any company with 95%+ payout ratio is much more vulnerable to a dividend cut.
-Credit rating? S&P gives Abbvie a BBB+ grade for its unsecured debt. This is a slight downgrade because their balance sheet is currently digesting a big acquisition from early 2020 (Allergan). Moody’s gives it a Baa2 rating for unsecured debt. These are both good, solid, investment-grade credit ratings (if you were buying the bonds of Abbvie). This looks great.
-Does it need a genius? Some companies run on all cylinders because they have a genius at the helm – often a founder. But what you want is a company any dummy can run, because sooner or later any dummy will. Don’t plan to invest long-term in companies that require skilled management. Abbvie is fairly diversified and has an OK pipeline of research. They also can buy little biotech companies that invent something but can’t navigate the regulations to bring it to market. So pondering giants are actually a good thing. Means they’re hard to break.
So, given that there was nothing obviously treacherous in our basic due diligence, and the extreme discount at which our example is selling for, this would be one you might want to buy! This is what I do for all the companies I invest in.
Notice that there is no story, no excitement, no narrative, no counting on good or bad management. Emotion has no place in investing. You also will notice that we took every opportunity to reduce the risk of losing your capital by always sandbagging the estimated value of the company. You never want to pick up nickels in front of a steamroller. You want the investment to be so obvious it hits you in the face like a baseball bat. If you’re ever on the fence, don’t do it. You don’t have to hit home runs – just don’t strike out.
You can be even more conservative in your estimates than I am. If, for instance, you used 5% growth rate for Abbvie’s dividend, you’d still get a present value of $148.57/share vs the current market price of $103.43. Similarly, you could use a higher interest rate, which would also lower the estimated present value.
You may have to do this calculation with more companies to find one to buy, but even in a very expensive market like today’s, there is always an opportunity. You don’t even have to look at little companies. There’s around 500 companies in the S&P – just start with “A” and work your way through all of them.
A quick note about further reading: I very strongly urge most people to actually read as little as possible on this subject once they get the basics. That’s not because there’s not more to learn, but because I would sadly say the majority of what I see and hear is actively bad advice. But if you do want to keep up with financial news and books and chat boards, the best thing to do is find out what the historical returns of the person giving advice are.
Since WWII, the long-run return on the S&P 500 has generally been just a bit shy of 10% per year. If someone can’t beat that, year-in-and-year-out, then their advice is worthless. As in, you don’t want to accidentally absorb it. This is, unfortunately, true for most professionals. Over the last 15 years, 92.2% of actively managed funds have underperformed a simple S&P 500 index fund (and they charge you fees for the privilege). Beware anyone selling something. The advice here is given freely
That’s why I made a point of mentioning that I have and regularly outperform the standard fund almost every year. Granted, I don’t have many of the regulatory restrictions a public fund would have, but it shows how useful the advice I’m giving here is. You don’t need anything fancy. You don’t need anything high risk. I’ve done this through two deep recessions and the longest bull market in history.
If you want to learn more about investing in general and where I learned how to do this, you can read Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor. It was written in the 1930s, so much of the technical information is out of date. Skip over that and just read it for the concepts.
Even easier reading is to go online to Berkshire Hathaway’s website and pull Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger’s annual letter to shareholders. Almost all of them have something useful in them and don’t make you do equations.
I am available for questions in the comments
submitted by PaperImperium to gme_meltdown [link] [comments]

PAYSAFE VS PAYONEER - Which is the Better Buy?

Paysafe is about to merge w/ BFT, hopefully sometime this quarter and as most of you know, it is a digital payments company. Payoneer, is rumored to be possibly merging w/ FTOC and also is a digital payments company.
So why are digital payments a big deal? Well, digital payments are expected to impact 80% of existing banking revenue and be a $7.6 TRILLION industry by 2024. Furthermore, it is expected that current digital payment companies including both Paysafe and Payoneer will experience double digit annual growth over the next 10 years. Or more specifically, a CAGR of 14.2% as a sector.
But there are already big names like SQ & PYPL, why would I want to buy into Paysafe or Payoneer? The answer is simple. The rate at which digital payments are expanding, there is almost infinite growth for companies who can position themselves by having a niche or corner markets in other countries. And when investing you are looking for both growth and scale.
Paysafe currently specializes in payment processing, API, Online payments, gambling payments, Dig Payment Interation w/ Business, Receipts and managing them, fraud detection, automated billing, multiple currency support, mobile payments and currency conversion.
Payoneer currently specializes in Single & Mass Payments, Partner Networking, Receiving Payments, Multi-Currency Support & Integrated Payment systems, digital marketing, ecommerce.
Paysafe acquires revenue based on a sliding scale or a high volume client rate. Where as Payoneer operates on a flat fee percentage.
Paysafe is expected to have $1.5 billion in revenue this year while Payoneer is expected to have around $300 million. Paysafe is obviously the bigger company, so we should skip investing in Payoneer, right? Not soo fast, just because they are currently smaller now, doesn't mean they won't be a billion dollar revenue producing company in 5 years. And that means lots of growth in both valuation and market cap, meaning, your stock price erupts with the growth.
Payoneer and Paysafe both have big name clients. Too many to list, but Payoneer supports Amazon, Google, Adobe and AirBNB. Paysafe has clients such as Playstation, Steam, Skype & Facebook. So both have big name clients and names paying the bills currently.
So which one should you buy? While Payoneer is a strong and a growing international player who is rapidly expanding in India, Japan, Phillipines, South Korea and the UK and although a much smaller company, it has some big name customers. Also note that Payoneer has tripled its revenue over the last 5 years. And on the other hand, Paysafe too has solid customers, much greater revenue and it too is positioned to grow quickly in the digital payments world.
Well, the answer seems simple. BFT is the safer bet and is about to close their reverse merger any day now. It's selling for a bit over $15 right now while FTOC is at a bit under $12. Both are based on a NAV of $10. On the other hand, for those of you comfortable with risk, buying FTOC on speculation before the DA/LOI are signed and announced could very likely result in you making $2-$4 share on the announcement alone.
Another thing to consider as well, is that BFT offers one of the largest gambling wallets in the world. Why is that important? Well, lots of states and govt's are feeling the effects of C-19 on their coffers from the lack of tax dollars and are either rolling back regulation or writing in new regulations so they can benefit from gambling tax dollars. I expect that to greatly expand Paysafes revenues and profitability as gambling carries higher fees than traditional services.
I do feel that both PayoneeFTOC & BFT/Paysafe will continue to expand rapidly, most likely dwarfing the anticipated 14.2% CAGR and that they have a strong chance of tripling in size AGAIN over the next 5 years as digital payments snowball.
So bottom line, digital payments are in the golden age of expansion and both of these companies are poised to enjoy their share of that expansion and while neither company seems to be knocking the others bottom out w/ a Donkey Punch, Paysafe is the larger of the two. BFT/Paysafe seems like a sure thing, while FTOC/Payoneer is the riskier play until the DA/LOI are signed. But as usual, with greater risk, comes greater reward.
Disclosure: I am long on both BFT/Paysafe & FTOC/Payoneer.
submitted by Prestigious_Count_62 to SPACs [link] [comments]

Any accountants here? Ex-convict wants advice?

Hello, I am using a throwaway.
I am an ex-con released in 2018 for car crime. You can read one of the links from my post history if you want more details but the relevant facts are these:
Right before I was arrested in 2015 I bought bitcoins in cash from a BTC ATM machine. I had 20.33 BTC in my possession, they were bought for around £400 each back then. I gave them to my sister to hold onto when my landlord kicked me out of my rental house and I left my personal possessions with her when I went inside. I have proof of receipts for the purchases and I have the gambling transactions from my William Hill online account that show I made purchases from the BTC ATM next door to the bookie each time I had a good day at the bookies and bought one coin.
When I came out of prison, I spoke to an accountant about them. He showed me guidance from HMRC that said that bitcoins were considered gambling and therefore not subject to tax.
I have been selling them for the last few years, in cash and used them to fund my living expenses and equipment for my job (I was living in a probation service approved hostel whilst working as a painter and decorator and would sell them when I was low on work).
I still have just over 16 bitcoins left. However, I went to my accountant just before Christmas and gave him my receipts for my painting and decorating jobs. He said guidance has now changed in 2018 and that the bitcoins would also have to be accounted for also and that they were subject to capital gains tax less my personal allowance. I would also have to redo my tax returns for 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 and 2019/2020 to account for the ones that I sold previously, less my allowance.
My question is, if I redo the tax returns, is there a possibility that my bitcoins could all be confiscated as Proceeds of Crime?
My accountant seemed shocked when I pointed out to him that they had climbed in price and were now standing at £16,000 (he said I'm the only client with bitcoins he has, and he doesn't know much about them). He said that he would try to speak to a HMRC officer off-the-record and see if there was a chance to do a full disclosure. He said there is something similar called a Code 9 but that is for criminal offences of tax fraud or tax evasion. He is worried that HMRC might not believe that I bought the coins with the proceeds of gambling, but that they were proceeds of crime from the car ringing I was doing. I still have some of my ATM receipts and I have the blockchain records that show I bought the bitcoins and transferred them onto paper printouts from bitaddress.org (they are now kept on a Trezor). But there's no proof they were bought in cash with the gambling proceeds.
He seem quite concerned that I am sitting on assets worth £250,000 and that I could potentially be liable to lose them all. He has suggested that he won't submit my tax returns yet, until he speaks to some colleagues of his and a tax investigator that he knows. Then he says, it might be better to speak directly to HMRC and ask for a sit-down interview or a Zoom call and make a full disclosure.
He said I also have the possibility of leaving the United Kingdom and moving to a tax haven. However I am now married and my wife's little boys from her previous marriage are in school, they call me 'dad' now. I'm not sure £250,000 would last forever in Switzerland or wherever, plus I'm an ex-con and might not get a residency permit. I'd prefer to stay in the UK and pay my taxes and get on with my life. My painting and decorating job is going really well now and I've got a full order book for spring 2021. I no longer drink or gamble. I moved away from my hometown and no longer have any contact with any of my old group. Any advice any accountants here can give is most welcome.
Tl;DR: I'm scared HMRC might confiscate my 16 bitcoins as Proceeds of Crime for an earlier offence, is there anything I can do and what's the % chance of me losing my coins?
submitted by PolarDistress to UKPersonalFinance [link] [comments]

Detailed DD post [re-post after r/pennystocks deleted it]

Detailed DD post [re-post after pennystocks deleted it]
I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. A few people messaged me asking for it to be shared in a few High Tide specific pages. So here it is! Hope this is OK for the mods here?
--
This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios.
I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements.
Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock.
Overview
  • High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
  1. Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
  2. Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
  3. Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
  • Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
  • Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits
Very strong market growth:
  • Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
  • Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
  • Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
  • New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
  1. The US federal legalization debate is on the table
  2. Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
  • Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
  • Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
  • High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
  • Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
  • Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
  • Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
  • Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
  • There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
  • For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
  • Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
  • Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
  • This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
  • Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
  • Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
  • I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
  • Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
  • Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
  • Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management
​
https://preview.redd.it/5pwznbe5xmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb1be853d9db5eaa7dc3c7b26630a173bbd064cf
Valuation
  • Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
  • Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive
​
https://preview.redd.it/l52oajp6xmg61.png?width=342&format=png&auto=webp&s=e31e1944101c6488a24f470bc3b91744f4c2dccf
  • Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
  • Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
  • The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis
​
https://preview.redd.it/2j51fwigxmg61.png?width=406&format=png&auto=webp&s=f678c5c66ced846ac45fa698c7e454f71a4232b6
NB – assumed the following:
  1. Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
  2. The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
  3. Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
  4. The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
Investment Risks & Mitigants / Outstanding DD points
Exposure to changing regulation
  • US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
  • Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
  • Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
  • No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
  • Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price
​
https://preview.redd.it/t0im6idhxmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=4bff366e68eeeadd5ac49ab5d97885685a327a6b
Potentially misleading cost basis information
  • A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
  • As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
  • Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
  • Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
  • No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
  • Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
  • So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more
If you want to check out the video, it would be appreciated: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
submitted by AlexM-YT to HighTideInc [link] [comments]

Not another HITI / HITIF DD post... detailed analysis incl. valuation [re-post after it was deleted on r/pennystocks for some reason...]

I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. I had a message to share it on here too, so here it is!
--
This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios.
I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements.
Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock.
Overview
  1. Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
  2. Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
  3. Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
Investment Merits
Very strong market growth:
  1. The US federal legalization debate is on the table
  2. Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
Regulation
Demand
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
Data
Forecasts financials & analysts
​
https://preview.redd.it/9ft3iuw6zmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=44f5a24a035466bac6e9e72c70eb1edcadf5091d
Valuation
https://preview.redd.it/83j8aqdkzmg61.png?width=342&format=png&auto=webp&s=f06ec34f6de10eeae049710dd59c494f6ef697c9
​
https://preview.redd.it/1z2ap11mzmg61.png?width=406&format=png&auto=webp&s=775ddc0c9d7e99412dbb4eb1fbbf8ed4645bc235
NB – assumed the following:
  1. Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
  2. The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
  3. Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
  4. The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
Investment Risks & Mitigants / Outstanding DD points
Exposure to changing regulation
Dilution
​
https://preview.redd.it/n8dzmapozmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=12e0e8bbd93f0c5c17920e7a5c5fad2559cc8bf0
Potentially misleading cost basis information
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
If you want to check out the video, it would be appreciated: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
submitted by AlexM-YT to TheDailyDD [link] [comments]

[Initial Impressions] Meermin Wholecut Chelsea - Dark Brown Calf

Album first
Edit: Added some additional pics in the album.
Intro
This is my third pair of goodyear welted boots. My current go-to boots are Wolverine 1000 Mile Evans; these being a very casual look, I wanted a dressier boot, one that I could dress up with a suit or dress down with jeans. The chelsea boot seemed to fit the bill.
Purchasing
I bought these from Meermin’s website for $330 CAD, including shipping. As a Canadian who has been shopping around for quality footwear for a while, this is CHEAP. I’m more than happy with the price. Got dinged for $16 in taxes when it cleared customs, and UPS charged a $10 brokerage fee for collecting this. Something to keep in mind for fellow Canadians - if you need to do any returns, there’ll be some costs that you won’t get back. Still quite happy with the $356 CAD all-in; I don’t think I could have gotten anything close to this quality at local retail for that price.
Meermin also shipped the boots UPS Expedited from New Jersey, which was nice, as shipping was quite fast. They shipped about 1 business day after ordering, and arrived 3 days later.
Sizing, Fit, and Comfort
Buying footwear online without the opportunity to try on is always a bit of a gamble, and I put a lot of effort into trying to get the sizing right, since return and re-purchase costs could add up pretty quickly, on top of just being annoying. Meermin customer service emailed me some very helpful information on measuring my feet, as well as a link to their sizing tool (https://digamelon.typeform.com/to/yqolYj), which was super helpful as it gives full measurements for all the Meermin lasts in each size. I did a lot of measuring of my feet before settling on size 10UK.
Again, the sizing tool was invaluable for choosing the right size - I had seen a lot of advice to go a full size down from your US size to Meermin’s UK sizing. I wear a US 10.5D in most shoes, but I think the 9.5 UK would have been too narrow in the toe - this is a common issue for me, as my forefoot is around a D width, but my hindfoot and ankle are rather narrow. In many of the chelsea boots I’ve tried (including Red Wing Willistons), the ones long enough to accommodate my foot length are either too narrow in the toe, or too wide in the heel and around the ankle. For further sizing reference for anyone out there, I wear a US 9.5D Wolverine 1000 Mile, I own a pair of US 9.5D Thursday Presidents that are just a bit too narrow at the point of the toe for me to be truly comfortable, and when I tried on a pair of Iron Rangers at the Red Wing store, the US 9D fit me best.
Overall the fit is comfortable, but not perfect. The collar is a bit loose around my ankle at the front and back, and there's a bit of extra room around my heel, though heel slip is minimal. The fit around my forefoot and toes is just right. Snug, but not tight. Thicker socks improve the fit somewhat. I ended up buying Superfeet’s ¾ insert off Amazon, which fills in some volume in the heel and under the vamp, and makes the fit almost perfect.
Pretty satisfied with the fit overall. Finding chelsea boots of this style that were even remotely comfortable for my foot shape was a challenge, much less a goodyear welted pair. At some point I’d like to see if a cobbler could make me a thicker ¾ leather insole so that I’d no longer need the Superfeet inserts. If anyone’s ever done something like that, I’d be interested to hear about it.
Look and Style
I was debating a black chelsea vs. a dark brown and ended up going with dark brown, as I feel like it would be more versatile with my wardrobe. The look and style is exactly what I wanted - the toes are somewhat pointed, giving the boots a dressier and sleeker profile than the rounded toe on chelsea boots like Blundstones, while still providing enough room for my wide, squarish toes. The colour is pretty true to what was shown on Meermin’s website, a nice shiny uniform dark brown that can be dressed up or down. The day my boots arrived, my kids wanted to have a “fancy dinner” at home, so I wore them with my suit (which doesn’t get any wear these days due to COVID) - the boots looked sharp!
Leather and Craftsmanship
The calf leather (from Les Tanneries Du Puy in France, per Meermin) is quite soft and supple. I haven’t worn these for an extended period yet, but so far the break-in seems pretty gentle, contrary to what I’d heard about Meermin boots in general. A few mild tight spots, but overall pretty comfortable right off the bat.
The overall fit and finish is pretty good. I’ve read mixed reviews about Meermin in this area, but mine seem pretty solid. There were a few loose threads left around the edge of the elastic areas, but they weren’t attached to anything and I was able to just pick them off. Looked like stuff that just didn’t get cleaned up before they left the factory.
There is what appears to be a slight crease line running down the front center of both boots, from the top of the collar down to the toe. Just a slightly lighter thin line in the leather - looks like where the leather was folded to shape the boot. It’s very hard to see; I can only see it up close in certain light, but this might bother some people. This is my first pair of chelsea boots, so I don’t know if this is common.
Conclusion
Pretty happy with these. I’ve been looking for a good chelsea boot for a while, and this is exactly the style that I wanted. My options in Canada at this price point that aren’t cemented crap are next to non-existent, so this was a nice introduction to Meermin. If anyone knows if Meermin has a last with the same width toe as the Hiro with a narrower heel, please let me know!
submitted by jammm3r to goodyearwelt [link] [comments]

$BFT (FoleyTrasimene II), SPAC to become Paysafe

I think that this one has been under-reported somewhat but since I work in the online gaming industry, it showed up on my radar.
This SPAC has reached a deal to bring back Paysafe to the market, at a valuation of 9 billions.
What is Paysafe?
Paysafe Group has been consolidating the market for e-wallets and alternative payment methods for years and went back into private hands 3 years ago.
They regroup all the main e-wallets used for online gambling and Forex: Skrill and Neteller and also prepaid cards (to be bought in 7/11 and the like) under the Paysafe brand.
Why e-wallets matter in the online gambling market?
E-wallets and prepaid cards represent about 25% of the volume of payments in online gambling in UK, Europe, Canada and Skrill/NetellePaysafe are by far the biggest names in this field.
https://www.fisglobal.com/-/media/fisglobal/WorldPay/Docs/Miscellaneous/Gaming%20Payments%20Report%202019
Neteller and Moneybookers (as Skrill was known then) were dominating the US alternative payment methods gambling market in the US before they got pushed out in 2007. They still have high name recognition amongst the gambling crowd and web searches in the US for these brands remain high, even if they can’t process much transactions there for gambling since many states don’t have online gambling legislations yet, or very limiting ones.
E-Wallets are often the preferred payment method for gamblers since it allows to move money from one operator site to the other quickly and cheaply. They can also use it as a bankroll segregated from their main bank account/CC and on top of that, Paysafe offers loyalty benefits to users based on their transaction volumes. As such, their user retention is very good.
The prepaid card business is also a major factor for this stock attractiveness. Prepaid cards to be bought in gas stations or the like are often preferred by gamblers who want to strictly control their gambling or those who don’t have access to a CC (maybe because they gambled too much) or those that prefer cash transactions out of privacy concerns…
Why not invest in the gambling operators instead?
Operators such as Draftkings or legacy casino groups are going to make money but the regulatory environment is harsh and gambling taxes are crazy in some states and might keep going higher.
Moreover, the regulations being so fragmented, many smaller operators push in certain states and not others and the competitive environment is broad. Remember that gambling is a fungible good. There is no difference in the casino games that the operators can offer (same game studios, same rules) and aside from bonuses and the margins on sports bets, the only differentiation is in branding, which is a thin moat on a product that often leaves the users disgruntled (losers).
Payments on the other hand are not taxed for their relationship to gambling and there are far fewer players.
How does Paysafe make money?
The margins on their products are pretty high and Paysafe charges both sides of the transaction in the case of the e-wallets and the merchant side in the case of the prepaid cards.
For the use of Skrill and Neteller wallets, Paysafe charges on average 4.5% on the merchant side for deposits and a whooping 9.9% on deposits with prepaid cards… Larger merchants certainly can negotiate these rates down but this is still a healthy fee, much higher than credit card processors.
In markets where Paysafe has established domination they charge a small deposit fee to the user and a withdrawal fee.
For now, they charge no fees to the US users in a bid to grow market share surely but that will probably end some day.
Growth opportunity:
For now, the US online gambling market is still very limited. Most states have not legalized, the majority of those who have legalized only did so for sports betting and then a handful have legalized online casino gaming (where the real money is made). The opening up of the market is bound to grow as states need money and more of the world moves online.
https://www.playusa.com/us/
It is estimated that the online gaming market could reach 25 billions a year in the US in a few years time and 150 billions worldwide.
https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/online-gambling-market#:~:text=The%20North%20America%20online%20gambling,CAGR%20during%20the%20forecast%20period.
https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-online-gambling-market
These revenues do not equal to deposited amounts, they equal net deposits (deposits minus withdrawals). The hold % of online casinos can be anywhere between 50% and 80% depending on how degenerate the market is in a given country but we can conservatively assume 60%.
This means that deposits volume in the US alone would reach about 40 billions, Europe about 50 Billions and worldwide 250 billions.
That should give Paysafe around 8-10 billions in transaction volume per year in the US alone , another 10-12 billions in Europe and conservatively, another 20 billions worldwide.
Valuation estimates:
Rough estimates are therefore revenues of about 1.5 billions per year for Paysafe group in a few years for gambling alone.
Paysafe claims 1.5 billions in revenues total projected for 2021, with only a third from gambling.
Even assuming no growth from the other verticals, this means that the total revenues of Paysafe should grow by 66% with gambling alone in the next 5 years or so.
Pysafe is investing a lot into expansion in other areas than gambling, notably video-gaming and remittance so assuming they don’t fuck it up completely, we are likely to see a 3 billions dollar in revenues in the next 5 years.
Using Paypal’s marketcap vs revenues, that would mean 50 billions in marketcap for Paysafe… Of course, Paypal is ingrained deeply in the whole of ecommerce and Paysafe is more specialized in gambling which might be shakier and herefore command a lower valuation.
The deal details are not fully known but it looks like a current valuation of 9 billions for Paysafe Group upon listing.
Based on my estimates, the marketcap could reach 50 billions in a few years time, one US market for gambling fully opens.
$BFT is trading at a 25% premium right now, therefore the estimate is 4x on investment over a few years.
Obviously you retards are not the most patient bunch but I believe the stock will jump when it morphs and so keep an eye out for the options.
submitted by According-Town-5373 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

DD for SCR/TSCRF

I'm not seeing a huge amount of knowledge on this subreddit, so I'm going to list some of the reasons why I'm hoping for some decent price increases..
If you find anything juicy that I've missed feel free to leave a top level comment or even message me and I'll add it. Perhaps we should keep updating this post and sticky it as a goto DD for SCTSCRF?
  1. Score have the most popular sports app in Canada and second most popular in the US behind ESPN, this puts them in a somewhat unique position to integrate sports betting in to a popular sports app (though note FUBO just announced purchasing Vigotry with their intention to integrate sports betting in to their sports streaming service, they closed up 34.32% today on the news and likely caused the dips in the share prices for SCR and DKNG, even PENN's share price seemed to waiver around midday);
  2. Score already have sports betting live in Colorado, Indiana and New Jersey;
  3. Score recently did a share offering and raised $25,649,390 which can be used for growth and expansion of sports betting in the US - check out their careers page and click on available opportunities;
  4. Score have a multiyear partnership with the NBA and the MLB to be an authorized sports betting operator, including access to official betting data and league marks/logos for the betting app;
  5. Score have a strategic multi-state market access partnership with PENN, PENN have access to 11 states, further PENN have a 4.7% stake in Score with the potential for this stake to increase as additional market access fees become payable (the second link, which is from PENN, says the term of the agreement with PENN is 20 years, even DKNG only has a deal for 10 years subject to a 10 year extension);
  6. Score have a 10 year partnership with Twin River to operate an online casino in New Jersey, extendable by 5 years at TheScore's option and a further 5 years upon mutual agreement;
  7. In Dec 2020 Score was named the most impressive emerging company in sports betting. They are also in Canada's fastest 500 growing companies, Canada's top growing companies 2019 and a 2020 TSX venture 50 company;
  8. Let's look at some user numbers. As expected they were down a bit during 2020 due to covid, but that is about to change across the industry with sports opening up properly and sports betting being legalised in many US states and hopefully Canada to help raise tax funds for covid expenses (never will sports betting have been more socially acceptable, almost encouraged!). They achieved 3 million active monthly users (4.3 million in q1 2019, should see this or higher again once sports start up properly - 62% of those users were in the US, 27% in Canada and the remaining 11% in other international markets). Users had an average of 70 sessions per month (75 the year prior), so 3*70 = 210 million users per month. 292 million video views for esports in just Q4 alone, year-over-year growth of 243%! Their esports tiktok account has over 1 million followers while their sports tiktok account has almost 2.5 million (up over 500k in the last quarter). Over 1.5 million youtube subscribers for their esports channel. Their twitter account has ~600k followers, almost double what DKNG have! Their social sports content across Twitter, FB, Instagram and TikTok achieved an average monthly reach of about 103 million;
  9. Score appointed sports business leader and four-time Olympian Angela Ruggiero to its board of directors - she's a hockey player, got a medal at each of the Olympics she went to including a gold;
  10. Score already cover women's sports, doing this without having to follow the competitors or have it requested by women shows a genuine interest in supporting women's sports. Hopefully this will extend to allowing sports betting on women's sports;
  11. Score esports has been named exclusive English language broadcast partner for League of Legends' Demacia Championship, a marquee annual event featuring 24 of China’s top esports teams. Live event coverage will run from December 20-27 and be streamed across theScore esports’ YouTube and Twitch channels. The Demacia Championship will be theScore esports’ first-ever live event broadcast, with production originating from their esports headquarters in Toronto.
  12. In 2019 Score partnered with Ubisoft for unique video content series;
  13. In 2014 Score was named one of the world's greatest apps (and in 2013 was named one of the 100 best Android apps of 2013);
  14. Score has joined the National Council on Problem Gambling as a Platinum member - this bodes well for support of Score from politicians and people normally critical of sports betting who are mostly onside at the moment through the need of raising tax money for covid related costs.
Future catalysts I'm hoping for:
  1. There's a live webcast to report q1 f2021 financial results Jan 13 at 5:30pm EST (details here). Hopefully good news so we 🚀 rather than ☄️ short-term, but I'm still bullish long-term regardless because sports have not really started up properly yet, nor has sports betting opened up in many places yet. With a bit of luck the income from the share offering will be included in the revenue for this quarter which might help;
  2. If we ever get uplisted to NASDAQ/NYSE and get out of the penny stocks then I would be surprised if it doesn't get pumped in numerous places including WSB;
  3. Legalisation of sports betting across more US states and Canada. The governor of NY has now expressed interest after previously being opposed to the idea, so too has Texas for example. Score do not yet have a partnership with a NY casino, but hopefully they will get on to that, they do have access to Texas through PENN;
  4. Partnerships with NFL and NHL would be awesome to go along with the NBA and MLB partnerships;
  5. Successfully competing with the big players like DKNG (and now FUBO too), hopefully with juicy earnings reports in to the future (if we do, look at the performance and current prices of DKNG and PENN, I'd be extremely happy if we ever made it to CAD$20/share, if we got to DKNG's current USD price we'll be in tendie heaven);
  6. Huge uptake in sports betting with a rally of public support to help cover the public costs associated with Covid;
  7. Maybe esports betting could become a huge thing? TheScore seem like they're in a good position to earn a decent market share there, possibly even be the ones to introduce it and bring it to market?
tl;dr: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 (hopefully at least 10x)
If you would prefer an ETF to have exposure to the betting market check out BETZ.
position: 42.8k shares
submitted by qu83rt to ScoreMediaAndGaming [link] [comments]

Any accountant here. Ex-convict wants advice?

Hello, I am using a throwaway.
I am an ex-con released in 2018 for car crime. You can read one of the links from my post history if you want more details but the relevant facts are these:
Right before I was arrested in 2015 I bought bitcoins in cash from a BTC ATM machine. I had 20.33 BTC in my possession, they were bought for around £400 each back then. I gave them to my sister to hold onto when my landlord kicked me out of my rental house and I left my personal possessions with her when I went inside. I have proof of receipts for the purchases and I have the gambling transactions from my William Hill online account that show I made purchases from the BTC ATM next door to the bookie each time I had a good day at the bookies and bought one coin.
When I came out of prison, I spoke to an accountant about them. He showed me guidance from HMRC that said that bitcoins were considered gambling and therefore not subject to tax.
I have been selling them for the last few years, in cash and used them to fund my living expenses and equipment for my job (I was living in a probation service approved hostel whilst working as a painter and decorator and would sell them when I was low on work).
I still have just over 16 bitcoins left. However, I went to my accountant just before Christmas and gave him my receipts for my painting and decorating jobs. He said guidance has now changed in 2018 and that the bitcoins would also have to be accounted for also and that they were subject to capital gains tax less my personal allowance. I would also have to redo my tax returns for 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 and 2019/2020 to account for the ones that I sold previously, less my allowance.
My question is, if I redo the tax returns, is there a possibility that my bitcoins could all be confiscated as Proceeds of Crime?
My accountant seemed shocked when I pointed out to him that they had climbed in price and were now standing at £16,000 (he said I'm the only client with bitcoins he has, and he doesn't know much about them). He said that he would try to speak to a HMRC officer off-the-record and see if there was a chance to do a full disclosure. He said there is something similar called a Code 9 but that is for criminal offences of tax fraud or tax evasion. He is worried that HMRC might not believe that I bought the coins with the proceeds of gambling, but that they were proceeds of crime from the car ringing I was doing. I still have some of my ATM receipts and I have the blockchain records that show I bought the bitcoins and transferred them onto paper printouts from bitaddress.org (they are now kept on a Trezor). But there's no proof they were bought in cash with the gambling proceeds.
He seem quite concerned that I am sitting on assets worth £250,000 and that I could potentially be liable to lose them all. He has suggested that he won't submit my tax returns yet, until he speaks to some colleagues of his and a tax investigator that he knows. Then he says, it might be better to speak directly to HMRC and ask for a sit-down interview or a Zoom call and make a full disclosure.
He said I also have the possibility of leaving the United Kingdom and moving to a tax haven. However I am now married and my wife's little boys from her previous marriage are in school, they call me 'dad' now. I'm not sure £250,000 would last forever in Switzerland or wherever, plus I'm an ex-con and might not get a residency permit. I'd prefer to stay in the UK and pay my taxes and get on with my life. My painting and decorating job is going really well now and I've got a full order book for spring 2021. I no longer drink or gamble. I moved away from my hometown and no longer have any contact with any of my old group. Any advice any accountants here can give is most welcome.
Tl;DR: I'm scared HMRC might confiscate my 16 bitcoins as Proceeds of Crime for an earlier offence, is there anything I can do and what's the % chance of me losing my coins?
submitted by PolarDistress to BitcoinUK [link] [comments]

r/CoronavirusDownunder random daily discussion thread - 16 January, 2021

CoronavirusDownunder random daily discussion thread - 16 January, 2021

🎥 Press conferences today

State Presser time Where to watch
Victoria TBA The Age, ABC Melbourne, 9news live, ABC News - YouTube
Queensland TBA The Age, ABC Brisbane (Facebook), 9news live, ABC News - YouTube, Annastacia Palaszczuk MP (Facebook)
NSW Most likely at 11am AEDT The Age, NSW Health Facebook, 9news live, ABC News - YouTube
​

National COVID-19 update as of 15/01/2021

https://preview.redd.it/lzx39ffvwgb61.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=007b58f833aba5edb164ee64a0bf5aa126aab9a8

Feeling overwhelmed?

Seeking help when you need it is an important step towards improving your mental health. There are a range of services available so you can find the support you need. To learn more about seeking mental health support, visit: https://headtohealth.gov.au/supporting-you
Source: Australian Government Department of Health
​
​

🌎 Other news

Feel free to talk about the COVID-19 situation in any country within this post and/or anything else you like as long as it is within the rules.
TYPE SUBMISSION DOMAIN
Asia 🇳🇵 - Nepal approves emergency use of Covishield vaccine / Nepal approves AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use timesofindia.com / news.yahoo.com
🇨🇳 - China reports most daily Covid-19 cases in over 10 months straitstimes.com
🇯🇵 - Japan eyes punishment for breaking COVID-19 rules japantimes.co.jp
🇮🇳 - India to send 20 million Covid-19 vaccine doses to South Asian neighbours, other regions scmp.com
🇮🇱 - Israel hits 2 million vaccinated against COVID-19 channelnewsasia.com
🇮🇩 - Instagram influencers are a vaccine priority in wary Indonesia nbcnews.com
🇹🇭 - Thailand to introduce tourism tax for every visitor, advised to legalize gambling to help stop the spread of Covid-19 rt.com
🇵🇰 - “I decided to step up”: The Pakistan woman who volunteered to help Covid victims independent.co.uk
🇨🇳 - Over 10 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines administered in China straitstimes.com
🇱🇰 - Sri Lanka s confirmed Covid-19 cases cross 51,000 adaderana.lk
🇳🇵🇮🇳 - The Latest: Nepal Seeks Early Supply of Vaccines From India usnews.com
🇵🇭 🇨🇳 - Philippines senators query government's preference for China vaccine after new efficacy data news.yahoo.com
🇹🇷 - Turkey's vaccine blitz tops 500,000 on second day of rollout news.yahoo.com
Europe 🇬🇧 - ‘Highly contagious’ Brazilian Covid variant detected in UK, says leading virologist, as South America travel ban comes into force rt.com
🇬🇧 - UK closing ALL travel corridors in bid to block new virus variants arriving from overseas / UK ends quarantine-free travel in fight against new coronavirus variants rt.com / politico.eu
🇳🇴 - Norway says Pfizer delaying deliveries to Europe dw.com
🇮🇪 - Covid Tracker app issues close contact alerts to 20,000 people in six months irishtimes.com
🇸🇪 - Sweden registers 4,703 new COVID-19 cases, 138 deaths on Friday reuters.com
🇬🇧 - Man charged after woman injected with fake Covid vaccine bbc.co.uk
🇬🇧 - New Covid outbreak at third UK immigration removal centre theguardian.com
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 - Covid-19: Norfolk and Norwich Hospital requests military help bbc.co.uk
🇮🇪 - Heartbreaking photos show patients lined up on trolleys at Covid-hit hospital mirror.co.uk
🇨🇿 - Czech Republic: Ex-president unremorseful after breaking COVID rules by visiting restaurant euronews.com
🇫🇷 - France introduces tougher Covid-19 restrictions for non-EU travellers france24.com
🇮🇹 - Italy Extends COVID Curbs Amid Third Wave Risks usnews.com
🇫🇷 - France only has enough Covid jabs to vaccinate 2.4 million people by end of February, says Health Minister rt.com
🇬🇷 - Greece may ease more COVID-19 curbs from Monday, says PM news.yahoo.com
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 - Wales to introduce new Covid protections in supermarkets theguardian.com
🇭🇺 - Hungary could return to ‘normal life’ by summer if Chinese vaccine is approved, PM Orban says rt.com
Americas 🇺🇸 - Contagious UK coronavirus strain will be widespread in US by March, experts claim independent.co.uk
🇺🇸 - 'No time to waste': Biden unveils $1.9tn coronavirus stimulus package theguardian.com
🇨🇦 - Canada has secured more vaccine doses per capita than anyone else, but it’s been slow to administer them washigntonpost.com
🇺🇸 - Miami Mayor Wants Residency Restriction for COVID Vaccine usnews.com
🇨🇦 - Canada on track for 10K COVID-19 cases a day, measures must be ‘further intensified’: feds globalnews.ca
🇧🇷 - Health care in Brazil's Amazonas state in 'collapse' as Covid-19 infections surge cnn.com
🇺🇸 - For Los Angeles-area ambulance crews, the COVID-19 calls never stop news.yahoo.com
🇧🇷 - Brazil faces oxygen shortage as new variant spreads dw.com
🇺🇸 - Some U.S. nursing home residents face delays for COVID-19 vaccines despite extreme risk news.yahoo.com
🇧🇷 - Brazilian authorities airlift oxygen to coronavirus-stricken Manaus ft.com
🇺🇸 - New Jersey is prioritizing cigarette smokers for COVID-19 vaccines because of their risk of severe disease news.yahoo.com
🇺🇸 - LA County Board of Supervisors to consider more business closures as COVID cases surge, report says abc7.com
​

Some numbers around the world 🌏️

🇭🇰 - HONG KONG:
  • +38 (total cases: 9,453).
  • +0 (total deaths: 161).
​
🇹🇭 - THAILAND:
  • +188 (total cases: 11,540).
  • +0 (total deaths: 69).
​
🇰🇷 - SOUTH KOREA:
  • +513 (total cases: 71,241).
  • +22 (total deaths: 1,217).
​
🇵🇭 - PHILIPPINES:
  • +2,048 (total cases: 496,646).
  • +137 (total deaths: 9,876).
​
🇲🇾 - MALAYSIA:
  • +3,211 (total cases: 151,066).
  • +8 (total deaths: 586).
​
🇨🇱 - CHILE:
  • +4,468 (total cases: 661,180).
  • +75 (total deaths: 17,369).
​
🇯🇵 - JAPAN:
  • +6,591 (total cases: 309,214).
  • +82 (total deaths: 4,315).
​
🇨🇦 - CANADA (as of 14/01):
  • +7,563 (total cases: 688,891).
  • +155 (total deaths: 17,538).
​
🇵🇱 - POLAND:
  • +7,795 (total cases: 1,422,320).
  • +386 (total deaths: 32,844).
​
🇺🇦 - UKRAINE:
  • +8,199 (total cases: 1,146,963).
  • +166 (total deaths: 20,542).
​
🇵🇹 - PORTUGAL:
  • +10,663 (total cases: 528,469).
  • +159 (total deaths: 8,543).
​
🇮🇩 - INDONESIA:
  • +12,818 (total cases: 882,418).
  • +238 (total deaths: 25,484).
​
🇮🇳 - INDIA (as of 14/01):
  • +15,677 (total cases: 10,528,508).
  • +189 (total deaths: 151,954).
​
🇮🇹 - ITALY:
  • +16,146 (total cases: 2,352,423).
  • +477 (total deaths: 81,325).
​
🇲🇽 - MEXICO:
  • +16,468 (total cases: 1,588,369).
  • +999 (total deaths: 137,916).
​
🇫🇷 - FRANCE:
  • +21,271 (total cases: 2,872,941).
  • +399 (total deaths: 69,949).
​
🇪🇸 - SPAIN:
  • +40,197 (total cases: 2,252,164).
  • +235 (total deaths: 53,314).
​
🇬🇧 - UK:
  • +55,761 (total cases: 3,316,019).
  • +1,280 (total deaths: 87,295).
  • +390 (total hospitalisations: 37,943).
  • +107 (total ICU admissions: 3,803).
  • Vaccinated:
    • 1st dose: 3.2M (+316,694)
    • 2nd dose: 443K (+5,257)
​
🇧🇷 - BRAZIL (as of 14/01):
  • +68,656 (total cases: 8,326,115).
  • +1,151 (total deaths: 207,160).
​
🇺🇸 - USA (as of 14/01):
  • +234,419 (total cases: 23,852,376).
  • +4,142 (total deaths: 398,067).
​
States reported 2 million tests, 223k cases, 128,947 people currently hospitalized with COVID-19, and 3,915 deaths.
​
The bright spot is our most consistent metric: current hospitalizations. This week, they appear to have leveled off. That said, there are still more than 2x the number of hospitalized patients now as during previous surges.
​
Here's that weekly look. Testing data may be back online after the holidays and case data is beginning to stabilize. As noted, we seem to be seeing the first signs of hospitalizations slowing down at a national level. https://covidtracking.com/analysis-updates/soaring-death-numbers-and-highly-regional-outbreaks-this-week-in-covid-19-data-jan-14
https://preview.redd.it/ze29dxx2tjb61.jpg?width=2434&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e6f1e8b2b0ca9aa82da6c80a6b707388859e694f
https://preview.redd.it/ozrg5w0ftjb61.jpg?width=2856&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1888ac3314b2e1997de58099a1c3561c7ffb4e04
submitted by Stoaticor to CoronavirusDownunder [link] [comments]

Ex-convict needs advice on Bitcoins bought in 2015

Based in England.
Hello, I am using a throwaway account.
I am an ex-con released in 2018 for car crime. You can read one of the links from my post history if you want more details but the relevant facts are these:
Right before I was arrested in 2015 I bought bitcoins in cash from a BTC ATM machine. I had 20.33 BTC in my possession, they were bought for around £400 each back then. I gave them to my sister to hold onto when my landlord kicked me out of my rental house and I left my personal possessions with her when I went inside. I have proof of receipts for the purchases and I have the gambling transactions from my William Hill online account that show I made purchases from the BTC ATM next door to the bookie each time I had a good day at the bookies and bought one coin.
When I came out of prison, I spoke to an accountant about them. He showed me guidance from HMRC that said that bitcoins were considered gambling and therefore not subject to tax.
I have been selling them for the last few years, in cash and used them to fund my living expenses and equipment for my job (I was living in a probation service approved hostel whilst working as a painter and decorator and would sell them when I was low on work).
I still have just over 16 bitcoins left. However, I went to my accountant just before Christmas and gave him my receipts for my painting and decorating jobs. He said guidance has now changed in 2018 and that the bitcoins would also have to be accounted for also and that they were subject to capital gains tax less my personal allowance. I would also have to redo my tax returns for 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 and 2019/2020 to account for the ones that I sold previously, less my allowance.
My question is, if I redo the tax returns, is there a possibility that my bitcoins could all be confiscated as Proceeds of Crime?
My accountant seemed shocked when I pointed out to him that they had climbed in price and were now standing at £16,000 (he said I'm the only client with bitcoins he has, and he doesn't know much about them). He said that he would try to speak to a HMRC officer off-the-record and see if there was a chance to do a full disclosure. He said there is something similar called a Code 9 but that is for criminal offences of tax fraud or tax evasion. He is worried that HMRC might not believe that I bought the coins with the proceeds of gambling, but that they were proceeds of crime from the car ringing I was doing. I still have some of my ATM receipts and I have the blockchain records that show I bought the bitcoins and transferred them onto paper printouts from bitaddress.org (they are now kept on a Trezor). But there's no proof they were bought in cash with the gambling proceeds.
He seem quite concerned that I am sitting on assets worth £250,000 and that I could potentially be liable to lose them all. He has suggested that he won't submit my tax returns yet, until he speaks to some colleagues of his and a tax investigator that he knows. Then he says, it might be better to speak directly to HMRC and ask for a sit-down interview or a Zoom call and make a full disclosure.
He said I also have the possibility of leaving the United Kingdom and moving to a tax haven. However I am now married and my wife's little boys from her previous marriage are in school, they call me 'dad' now. I'm not sure £250,000 would last forever in Switzerland or wherever, plus I'm an ex-con and might not get a residency permit. I'd prefer to stay in the UK and pay my taxes and get on with my life. My painting and decorating job is going really well now and I've got a full order book for spring 2021. I no longer drink or gamble. I moved away from my hometown and no longer have any contact with any of my old group. Any advice any accountants here can give is most welcome.
Tl;DR: Is there a good chance HMRC might confiscate my 16 bitcoins as Proceeds of Crime for an earlier offence, is there anything I can do and what's the % chance of me losing my coins?
submitted by PolarDistress to LegalAdviceUK [link] [comments]

Jan/12/2021 news: __ Gas prices could rise: ֏ vs $ __ Jailed for taking Azeri bribe __ How much will AM-AZ railway cost? __ COVID strain, vaccine, stats __ POW & borders __ Childbirth subsidy __ Seismic resistance __ IRS to monitor casinos __ Environmentalists to have voice __ Yezidi theater __ more

Your 11-minute Tuesday report in 2562 words.

gas prices could rise due to currency fluctuations

Russian gas price (at the border) had increased from $150 to $165 per 1000m3 in 2019. Although the Russian currency Ruble was devaluing against the Dollar, Armenia was/is paying for gas with Dollars.
Since 2019, the Pashinyan administration has been trying to convince Russia to implement a different gas payment mechanism within the EAEU trade bloc. Making payments in Rubles instead of Dollars was one of the priorities:
"We are constantly talking about high dollarization within the EAEU, but we still pay for Russian gas in dollars. Our proposal was that it would be more correct if we paid for gas in rubles, because I think it is more logical, also within the EAEU," said Pashinyan in early 2020.
This idea was also shared by Vladimir Putin's personal adviser back in October 2018. It appears the EAEU has been working towards this goal lately.
But meanwhile, Armenia has to pay for Russian gas in Dollars. With Armenian Dram devaluing against the Dollar, the pricing for consumers will likely be revised. Consumers pay 139 Drams per cubic meter. This was calculated in 2020 when $1 was 480 Drams. Today $1 = 520 Drams.
Large consumers pay in Dollars and have their rates adjusted periodically, while small consumers (general public) pays in Drams.
Armenia imports 2.2 billion m3 gas from Russia annually, at the price of $165 per 1000m3. 0.7 billion of it is consumed by the general public.
Dram was devalued by 6.6% since November. This could prompt the internal gas company to raise the prices, including for the general public.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039886.html
http://www.armbanks.am/en/2020/04/07/128024/
https://neftegaz.ru/en/news/energy/406887-armenia-should-pay-for-russian-gas-in-rubles/

Public Council meets drone and robotics industry

The Public Council (linked to PM's office) held a meeting with engineers from the drone, robotics, AI, and nano-tech industries. They discussed ways to help the state to develop the military-industrial complex, drone production, aviation, and to bring their quality to international standards.
https://factor.am/327477.html

former PACE MP sentenced to 4 years for taking bribes from Azerbaijan

An Italian court has concluded that Italian PACE representative Luca Volonte, who is the former head of the European People's Party, took €2.4 million in bribes from the Aliyev regime in 2012-2013.
The bribe was handed over by Azerbaijan's PACE delegation leader Suleymanov. The scheme was coordinated by an Azeri lobbying firm based in Brussels. In return, the MP gave Azerbaijan favors during PACE and Italian Parliament sessions.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039927.html
Tags: #caviar

POWs and searches

The search crews in Artsakh discovered bodies of 10 soldiers and 1 civilian in Jabrayil, Hadrut, and Sgnakh regions. The civilian has already been identified by his relatives. The cause of death is being investigated.
Many bodies under the possession of the Armenian side are yet to be identified, while more bodies will likely be found during daily searches for the foreseeable future. Overall, 575 calls have been made by families who are looking for missing relatives, says the Russian humanitarian envoy in Artsakh.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039900.html , https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/289293/
Human Rights Ombudsman Tatoyan once again criticized Azerbaijan for intentionally politicizing and delaying the POW swap mission. "It is against international laws to file felony cases and arrest POWs because that's a form of a prohibited punishment. Azerbaijan is also hiding the true number of POWs."
The Ombudsman has noted that Armenian residents in Tegh, Vorotan, and several other bordering villages have lost access to 2500 hectares of farming lands due to border changes. (some lands that were internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan were given to Azerbaijan after the war).
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039933.html , https://factor.am/327226.html , https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/204175

POW discussions: general prosecutor meets Azeri counterpart

Chief prosecutor Arthur Davtyan and his Azeri counterpart were invited to Russia. The three sides held a conversation about the establishment of future contacts in the field of international law and other related topics. Prosecutor Davtyan mentioned the importance of implementing the November 9th statement about the return of POWs, "which will serve as an assurance for implementation of other [trade unblocking] issues."
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039953.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039972.html

how much will a new railway network cost?

Azeri economists believe it will cost around $430 million to build a railway network connecting Kars(TR)-Nakhijevan(AZ)-Meghri(AM)-Zangelan(AZ)-Baku(AZ). Overall, if you add Gyumri between Kars and Nakhijevan, it could cost about $434 million.
Economists believe Armenia can use this network to connect with Russia via two directions: Gyumri-Nakhijevan-Meghri-Baku (southern trip), or Ijevan-Ghazakh-Baku (northern trip).
https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/289313/

rumors & rebuttals: traitors are not selling Azeri juice in Armenia

Telegram channel Mediaport circulated rumors that "Azeri Sandora juice is being sold in Armenia". The misinformation was picked up by several outlets and caused confusion among the buyers.
Fact-checkers contacted Sandora's local importer who said the producer is a Ukrainian company that sells its product in multiple post-Soviet republics, so they have one unified tag that contains information both in Armenian and Azeri languages.
https://fip.am/14469

4 Dutch MPs receive medals for friendship

Among them is ethnic Kurdish MP Sadet Karabulutu, who publicly criticized the Turkish-Azeri aggression during the war.
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/204216

food prices in Artsakh

Pricing for 43 commonly-consumed items was examined by the consumer protection agency in Artsakh. 12 became more expensive, 5 cheaper, 26 remained the same.
Onion +25%, cottege cheese +6%, milk +6%, gloves +5%, ..., pear -12%, rice -1%, eggs -1%, butter -1%.
Several dairy product prices went up, and since Artsakh has dairy companies that own dominant market share, the consumer agency will launch an investigation to see if there was price-fixing.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039946.html

seismic resistance assessment for old buildings

A significant portion of Armenia's large apartment complex buildings were built half a century ago. They may not be seismically safe, considering Armenia's geolocation. After the 1988 earthquake, some buildings remain populated despite being deemed highly unsafe. Many other buildings have safety irregularities.
It is necessary to assess the situation, so the Urban Development Committee has drafted a bill "Methodology for assessing the priority of increasing the seismic resistance of buildings and structures".
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039887.html

IRS will closely monitor gambling industry / RFID chips & servers

IRS press release: gambling facilities and online betting services will be more closely monitored. We worked with international experts to digitize the gambling industry and bring it on par with international standards.
All gambling machines and platforms operating in Armenia will be connected to one server which will be connected to a monitoring Center. All betting and winning transactions will be recorded.
The Center will also install RFID microchips in casinos to monitor the movement of chips, the chips purchased or won by players, in real-time.
The government's Digital Council has approved the bill, which is yet to be discussed and voted in the Parliament. The goal is to be able to monitor the financial flows in this sector and to estimate the actual revenues. It will combat money laundering. (BHK skipping a Parliament session due to "COVID" in 3, 2, 1, ... /joke)
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039915.html

new "public council" will advise Nature Ministry

Nature Minister Romanos met several environmental organizations and environmentalists and discussed the creation of a new Council, which will advise him on nature protection issues, help draft bills and roadmaps, work with other environmental organizations and NGOs. The Council is accepting applications.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039896.html

large quantities of illegally-cut trees were busted

... by Ijevan policemen during a routine patrol on Sunday. Three cargo trucks were filled with wood.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039960.html

rammed through the gates

The police have arrested the father of a missing soldier who used his Vaz 21 vehicle to ram through the Defense Ministry's entrance gate before smashing it into a building on Sunday.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039957.html , https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/289315/

"turn off the camera"

Context: An incident happened last week between parents of drafted soldiers and military officials at a military unit. The parents wanted assurances that their sons would be safe after being deployed on Artsakh borders. The parents wanted to know why Armenian soldiers are still being sent to Artsakh "despite the November 9th statement saying Armenians should withdraw from Artsakh."
During the confrontation, an incident happened between a military official and a journalist. The official struck the camera and instructed it to be turned off. Several media outlets released a message condemning the officer for hindering the journalist's work.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039973.html

infrastructure upgrades

Four settlements in Kotayk province (Yeghvard, Nor Gegh, Aragel, Zovuni) have a newly renovated irrigation pipeline as part of a govt subsidy program.
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/204202

today in history

1932: First Yerevan tramway began operating in Yerevan
1951: The UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide was implemented.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039885.html

get your free colonoscopy today

The National Center for Oncology has purchased the latest generation tools and will perform a free and enjoyable colonoscopy for residents over the age of 45, for the next 6 months.
The goal is to detect suspicious growths at an early stage. It's the third most common cancer among adults in the world. It has become more common in Armenia in the past decade. When detected early, it can be fully treated.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039911.html

COVID stats

+1885 tested. +355 infected. +729 healed. +5 deaths. 8393 active.
The death rate has been 1.8%. The infection reproduction rate was 0.84 in the past two weeks, down from 1.43.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039906.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039943.html

COVID numbers have declined, so what do we do?

... we lift some of the restrictions!
"Aye, aye, Captain!"
"I can't hear you!"
"The rule that limits attendance to non-commercial gatherings to no more than 60 people has been removed. All other safety requirements remain in place," said a Healthcare official. "You can enter Armenia via air or land by presenting negative COVID test results that were taken within the past 3 days. If you don't, you will be tested at the airport and will need to self-isolate until the results arrive."
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039931.html

Armenia will soon import COVID vaccines

Healthcare Ministry: we are negotiating with multiple entities. The first batch of vaccines will arrive between late-January and mid-February. We are negotiating with producers whose vaccines have passed the necessary tests: Sputnik V, Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca. In the first phase, the vaccines will be given to the most vulnerable 10% of the population.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039921.html

Sputnik V vaccine has already been tested in Armenia

Healthcare Ministry: no complications were reported by the 15 patients, including Minister Torosyan. The often-discussed "skin redness" in the injection area has not been observed, either.
The first injection gave a 91.4% efficiency. The second increased it to 94%. Even if the vaccine doesn't fully prevent the infection, it can save the patient's life by making the case mild (is that right??).
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039925.html

the new COVID strain: good news, bad news

Doctor Davit Melik-Nubaryan: the version of COVID that mutated in the UK will eventually reach Armenia. Preliminary data shows that those who have already been infected and gained immunity from the original COVID will be immune to this new strain. It is believed that the immunity will last 6-12 months for the majority.
The good news is that the new strain isn't more deadly and doesn't result in heavier cases. The bad news is that it spreads a lot faster. The Healthcare system could be overloaded again.
The vaccines against the original strain will likely work against the new one. Pharmaceutical companies may have to modify the vaccines, but it will only take weeks.
Closing borders with the UK won't be helpful to prevent it. We may already have the new strain. We need to develop a new strategy from the ground up.
Viruses mutate all the time. It's part of the evolution. Sometimes they cause more severe symptoms, sometimes lesser. From the evolutionary and survival standpoint, viruses want to cause less severe symptoms for the host so they can have a chance to spread wider.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039856.html

Armenian scientists will study the COVID strain

CDC chief Bakunts: Armenia will have the ability to study the genetic mutations of the coronavirus. Active work is underway to invest in research resources. Meanwhile, we can submit a virus sample to a WHO laboratory to conduct a study for us.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039962.html

families with newborn children receive mortgage subsidy

450 families have so far taken advantage of a government subsidy program that helps with purchasing apartments. ֏526 million will be paid as part of this 2020-2023 program. It is part of a recent initiative to boost the birthrate.
Two other aid programs went into effect in mid-2020. Provincial families received a downpayment subsidy equalling 5% of the total price. Another one subsidizes insurance payments.
The same family can apply for all three programs, and there is no age limit for parents.
https://factor.am/327385.html

diaspora-government cooperation expands: iGorts

iGorts is a program that recently recruited 48 highly skilled diasporan Armenians to visit Armenia and work at 19 various government agencies. Three more volunteers have arrived today to begin their work: Shila Palyan from Canada, Zaven Ayvazyan from Russia, and Anahit Mikaelyan from Cyprus.
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/204211

Yerevan to install 32 more elevators in apartment complexes

Arabkir district is the next recipient. Hundreds of units were installed in 2020. They replace the decades-old elevators that have become dangerous and poopy. The new elevators come equipped with running water and flush so you can drain your crap /s.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039954.html

have you been buying stuff right and left lately?

...because trade turnover increased by +34%, and the number of printed receipts by +7%, during this year's New Year's holidays.
֏91 billion was spent between December 29-31, which is ֏23 billion more.
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/204195

would your majesty be pleased to take a salt bath?

Nerqin Getashen will have a halotherapy "salt bath" center to help alleviate certain conditions. It's the first in Gegharquniq province. There will also be rooms for aromatherapy (oils), ogyxenotherapy (oxygen cocktails), and massage.
The owner claims it helps boost immunity and alleviates breathing, allergy, and insomnia issues (take the claim with a bath of salt).
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039974.html

first Yezidi theater to open in Armenia

"шəp' y əBин" or "war and love" will be the first performance in a newly opened Yezidi theater in Ejmiatsin. It's part of a «Եզդիների կողքին» cultural initiative. The crew had planned a major performance about Yezidi national legend but the 44-day war began and some were drafted.
The crew ended up performing the "шəp' y əBин" during the war. It's about the importance of Yezidis in Armenia, and their love for the country. The January 17th performance will be dedicated to Yezidis who died fighting.
The performers aren't professional actors but they received acting training on-the-fly. "It seems to work because their enthusiasm is great. A very good team has been formed," said the producer.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039941.html

Aram Khachaturian House-Museum will resume "Musical Thursdays"

This year's first classical concert is dedicated to Ruben Babayan, "the BFF of Armenian musicians."
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039916.html

Netherlands college will donate large quantities of school supplies

Several thousands of desks, chairs, furniture pieces, computers, lockers, etc. are being loaded in containers to be shipped to Armenia.
The Hermann Wesselink college is renovating its building with new items so they decided to donate the old stuff to Armenian kids. This will be enough to equip 15 provincial schools.
https://factor.am/327135.html

donations to Artsakh & recovering soldiers

www.1000plus.am (recovering soldiers & their families)
www.HimnaDram.org (for Artsakh & Armenia)
www.ArmeniaFund.org (U.S. tax-deductible)

archive of older posts

Armeniapedia's archive of my daily news threads:
http://www.armeniapedia.org/wiki/Daily_Anti-Corruption_Reports

disclaimer

All the accused are considered innocent unless proven guilty in the court of law, even if they "sound" or "appear" guilty.
submitted by ar_david_hh to armenia [link] [comments]

South Africa part 3: Cecil Rhodes

South Africa part 3: Cecil Rhodes
To think of these stars that you see overhead at night, these vast worlds which we can never reach. I would annex the planets if I could; I often think of that. It makes me sad to see them so clear and yet so far. -- Cecil Rhodes, Last Will and Testament
This is the 3rd post in a series on South Africa and Apartheid and so far in the first two neither Apartheid nor South Africa even exists. But we are to the mid climax. In first part we discussed how our groups of players: Afrikaners, British, Xhosa, Zulu, minor tribes, other ethnicities got to what would become South Africa. In the second part we discussed how the Zulus and Xhosa knocked themselves out of the game leaving the British and Afrikaners as the main players standing for who got rule what would become South Africa. We also discussed how the British policy was non-viable. This part is going to discuss how the British changed course and consequently won control. We are also going to get to the genesis of the Western Left's hatred of the Afrikaners and the genesis of Apartheid, We'll end on the creation of the Union of South Africa which while not the Republic of South Africa will allow me to stop talking about "Southern Africa", "territory that will become South Africa".... But unfortunately you will have to sit through this one more post where South Africa doesn't exist yet.
Cecil Rhodes was born in 1853 the sickly asthmatic 5th son of a not particularly notable clergyman. He'd remain sickly his entire life dying in 1902 at the age of 48 from the sorts of deterioration of the heart and lung one wouldn't expect to see until a man was at least well into their 90s. In that short span he would: become one of the richest men in the world; found several countries; change the entire economic structure of the territories that would become: South Africa, Botswana, Zambia, Mozambique, Namibia and Zimbabwe; found 2 major corporations: the British South Africa Company and De Beers; rethink British imperialism inventing what would become the British Commonwealth; becoming one of the defining figures and great visionaries of the Victorian Age; trigger the 2nd Boer War; demonstrate the strategy changing nature of the machine gun decades before World War 1; be the only genuinely important Prime Minister of the Cape Colony; invent the concept of corporate armies; play a large role in saving the South African wine industry and most importantly be the only individual getting his own post in this series. :) Rhodes was sent to South Africa at the age of 17 so that the British weather didn't kill him. Rather than doing the normal thing and spending the money (amounting to a decade or less of a comfortable middle class salary, but no great fortune) on living with some gambling and girls thrown in he decided to head to the newly discovered diamond mines in Kimberly and started buying up small diamond mining operations leveraging each mine's output and outside financing to buy the next. Later he partnered with leading financing and trading firms so by 1888 had what amounted to monopoly control of diamond industry turning De Beers into the diamond powerhouse it remains to this day though the last pieces wouldn't fall into place until 1890. He by the 1880s De Beers was throwing off enough excess profits that he could pay investors and continue expending De Beers while being able to found the predecessor to the British South Africa Company operating much further into the interior opening up Bechuanaland and Rhodesia as colonies using his own profits to fund the administrative expenses much as the East India Company had done a century earlier.
Rhodes believed that British policy wasn't viable because it was petty. A vibrant healthy economy throws off an enormous amount of tax revenue. Petty colonialism, like the kind the British were engaging in would never generate much profit because of its very short term nature. Britain should make money by investing in the local economy, spend some on upkeep, reinvesting most of the profits and just skim a little of a forever growing payout. What Britain had tried to do with the American colonies encouraging economic development was the right approach. The problem was London had been shortsighted and selfish turning the local administrators against them. The independence of the USA wasn't a strategic failure it was the result of poor tactical implementation. The problem the British were facing in Southern Africa was similar and since the policies had been similar the results would be as well. The Afrikaners had no reason to be loyal to a Britain which had spent almost a century making very clear that it had no interest in their welfare or society beyond some ports which were frankly not nearly so important since Suez had opened. Rhodes changed policy to have Britain stop acting like a colonizing power and start acting like the domestic government of South Africa as much as possible .Outlining his changes to colonial governing policy:
  • Colonial financing -- utilize profits from business ventures fund army. Rhodes' companies were good examples of this the British charter and the backing of British troops allowed him to make excess profits which allowed him to incur expenses which the previous skinflint administration could never have tolerated. For example British colonial bonds generated an average return of 4.7%. Investments in independent American bonds generated an average return of only 2.9%. The difference was not being taken into account when the Colonial Office calculated their return on investment which to Rhodes' mind was simply lousy accounting.
  • Long term investment -- In general rewire the metrics used at the London Colonial Office to focus on long term investment not short term profits.
  • Demographics -- The British were the world's first people. Physically populate as much of the world as possible. Assimilate other people's into the British way of life. In South Africa in particular he intended to win the hearts and minds of the Boer.
  • Stability -- The previous administration had focused on stability because instability created upheavals that increased administrative costs. For too long British colonial policy was to tolerate and coexist with local culture. To create a profitable economy agricultural efficiencies are going to need to be introduced. That means 90% of the natives are going to freed up to work in a manufacturing and processing workforce. It also means the agricultural tribal traditional culture is going to be completely destroyed. Instability not stability should be policy. Seek to replace local culture with British culture to enhance the potential for economic growth.
  • Glory to British not England -- English colonies exist for glory of England. British colonies self exist. England's glory is that is the Birthplace of the 1st people not how much of the world remains completely non-British while in some vague unimportant sense recognizing Victoria as their Queen.
  • Representation -- As long as colonial governments respond to a English democracy they will be unrepresentative of their people. Create a democratic institution which provides representation for all British people in a British Parliament. There should be an English parliament for England. Invite the United States to join this new institution. "Inauguration of a system of Colonial representation in the Imperial Parliament which may tend to weld together the disjointed members of the Empire and, finally, the foundation of so great a Power as to render wars impossible, and promote the best interests of humanity" (NB: this is essentially the British Commonwealth, though of course the USA was not invited)
  • Devastating defeat of enemies -- Colonial policy was designed to solve conflict cheaply. Small military victories do not undermine the hostile's economy nor their society and thus don't accomplish much. They simply delay and prolonging the problem created by the enemy allowing the enemy to choose points in time to achieve advantage. Avoid costly wars certainly but when war is needed seek to inflict devastating defeat so the subject people realize their inferiority. This realization facilities undermining their institutions and thus during the peace their way of life easily becomes more British. Further a willingness to war like this makes challenging Britain very costly and risky for potential enemies and thus wars will be far less frequent. The financial people are correct that the aggregate cost of inflicting devastating defeats infrequently is higher than more frequent small wars but the benefits are far greater. War carried out towards devastating defeat becomes a form of investment not a pure non-productive expense.
  • Scope -- The British were far to unambitious in their aims. The goal of British colonialism should be "all lands where the means of livelihood are attainable by energy, labour and enterprise". The scope was, "the occupation by British settlers of the entire Continent of Africa, the Holy Land, the Valley of the Euphrates, the Islands of Cyprus and Candia, the whole of South America, the Islands of the Pacific not heretofore possessed by Great Britain, the whole of the Malay Archipelago, the seaboard of China and Japan, the ultimate recovery of the United States of America as an integral part of the British Empire"
​
map of Cecil Rhodes' proposed British Empire
You'll notice that all of Africa was in the map. Rhodes was of the opinion that Africa was incredibly rich in minerals and peoples. But it wasn't exploitable for profit because of a lack of transportation infrastructure. Rhodes was pushing to start fixing this by creating a full African north-south railway connecting "Cairo to the Cape". Rhodes' BSAC conquests were designed to drive north while he used his political influence to push the Egyptian conquest further south into Anglo-Egyptian Sudan and then a business similar to BSAC run by Sir William Mackinnon to push into Uganda.
For the northward push (primarily in what today is Zambia, Zimbabwe and Botswana) Rhodes was directly implementing his policy using a private army funded from the British South Africa Company. The Ndebele and Shona (Zulu tribes) were handled easily by the devastating defeat principle. Rhodes' forces demonstrated how effectively Maxims (a primitive form of machine gun) and barbed wire worked against simple rifles, spears and long shields achieving kill ratios never before seen in the history of warfare. As an aside these battles against the Zulus would also be used by those military theorists and historians who correctly anticipated in the later 1890s through 1910s how devastating a war between the great powers would be using these weapons against each other. Rhodes through BSAC had managed to push north of Lake Mweru and to the Northern tip of Lake Nyasa. Which almost connected with Sudan were it not for German East Africa (Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania) in the middle. In theory an alternative route through the Belgian Congo would also work but the gold mines in Tanzania kept Rhodes focused on taking German East Africa. Further Rhodes met his match in ruthlessness when it came to the Belgians. When Rhodes' negotiating agent sought a development contract for mineral-rich Katanga (in Congo) the native ruler Msiri refused. King Leopold II of Belgium obtained the same concession by having his agent signing it to Belgium himself over Msiri's dead body in the name of the "Congo Free State".
At the same time Rhodes worked with the Colonial office and in 1890 British issued the "1890 British Ultimatum" to Portugal. This ultimatum by the British government forced the retreat of Portuguese military forces from areas which had been claimed by Portugal on the basis of historical discovery and recent exploration, but which the United Kingdom claimed on the basis of effective occupation. Portugal had attempted to claim a large area of land between its colonies of Mozambique and Angola including most of present-day Zimbabwe and Zambia and a large part of Malawi, which had been included in Portugal's "Rose-coloured Map". This ultimatum violated the Anglo-Portuguese Treaty of 1373 which to that point had been the longest standing peace treaty in history.
​
Who owned what by the early 1900s
Take a look at the map above and imagine the British controlling the north-south line connecting to a British/Portuguese line running east-west in the south and a joint French/British/Italian line running east-west in the north. From there local government and companies could construct smaller feeder lines creating a modern rail system. Hopefully and you start to see how Rhodes intended to start developing the transpiration infrastructure needed to create a strong African economy.
All this was going to be for naught though if Southern Africa ended up as a Boer state hostile to British interests on the model ZAR (Zuid-Afrikaansche Republiek, Transvaal Republic). So Rhodes decided to run for Prime Minister of the Cape Colony and solve the problems of British strategy explicated in part 2. The primary problem the Boer had with British government is their divide and conquer approach. The British tilted to whomever was losing (a standard British policy they would also follow in Palestine) which for decades meant treating the Boer and native Africans as both being subject peoples while favoring the native Africans against the Boer. In Rhodes mind you could not expect to get loyalty from people you were obvious disfavoring. The British were the ones turning the Boer into enemies.
So in 1892 Rhodes instituted the Franchise and Ballot Act. This was seen as a compromise between factions in the Colonial Office and the traditions in the Cape Colony for a broad democracy (anyone with £25 in property could vote) and Orange and ZAR's (Zuid-Afrikaansche Republiek, Transvaal Republic) more exclusive democracy. Rhodes raised the amount of property to £75, an amount specifically chosen to disempower many of the native Africans while allowing many Boers to vote. With a Boer and British based democracy locked in the Cape Colony's democratic powers could be strengthened, creating more self rule and making the involvement of the London Colonial Office less obvious. This concept of using a not explicitly racial criteria while instituting laws with racist intent is very modern.
Various Liberals in the London Colonial Office especially missionaries disagreed strongly with Rhode's policies. They had been the ones advocating for the enlightened colonialism that was British policy. Missionaries in particular saw their role as: combating godlessness, superstition and backwardness. In particular encourage better use of land; encourage paycheck work; become trusted advisor to tribal leaders. The slogan "Bring the 3Cs into Africa" referred to Commerce, Christianity and Civilization. To their mind Rhodes' vision of British Imperialism was straight up military tyranny. If followed he would make England no different than a modern day Genghis Khan, creating a empire loathed by a vast expanse of subject peoples who would unite against it from all directions. Instead interfering minimally and being seen as an ally while slowly educated the elite in British custom and religion would cause a gradual consensual change that would build British alliances that would last centuries. Plus such an approach would fulfill the Lord's Great Commission (term for Jesus' command to convert the entire world to Christianity) in a way that honored God rather than shamed him. One need only look at how the Spanish, Portuguese and Balkans had thrown off Islam after centuries to see how ineffective military tyranny was at long term conversions that didn't require force. So in their mind: No the London Office should stand by its traditional values of: monopoly companies and plantations run in (unequal) partnership with indigenous elite. free trade, free (and indeed forced) migration, infrastructural investment, balanced budgets, sound money, the rule of law and incorrupt administration. As far as their Boer, in their mind the Boer were the primary impediment to enlighten British rule in South Africa, being Christians they were obligated to agree with the missionaries on the vision of the White Man's Burden and Enlightened Empire. Rather than making concession to the Boer they needed to be crushed to demonstrate the moral difference between the Boer and the British. With Rhodes' change in policy tilting towards rather than away from the Boer the Western Left came to truly hate the Boer in 1890s. Since the point of this series is the analogy I'll add that I wrote two posts about more or less the same groups of Liberal Christians turning against Israel again having to do with Israeli/Jews discrediting Liberal Western values and thus interfering with the Great Commission: WCC churches and Quakers.
Rhodes in debates before and at the time considered this Liberal Empire stuff to be simply aspirational. Without economic interference there wasn't enough money to fund anything like what the Liberals proposed. He'd point to facts like that after a century of such rules in India they had increased the secondary schooling 7x to a whopping 2% while England with not nearly as many well funded missionary organizations was over 16%.
Rhodes hoped to unify all of Southern Africa around this compromise approach to the franchise. ZAR however rejected this compromise. By the mid 1990s approximately 1/3rd of their white population were British (Anglicans). ZAR had every intent of maintaining religious based voting criteria (i.e. citizenship in ZAR was only open to people who were members of several Dutch Reformed Churches, see part 2). Obviously for Rhodes a situation where British people were the disempowered minority was intolerable. Additionally the ZAR were maintaining an anti-Cape Colony / anti-British / anti-Rhodes trade policy. It was becoming increasingly clear there would need to be regime change. So in 1895 Rhodes organized an attempted coup d'état now called the "Jameson Raid" (yes the same Jameson who went on to be Prime Minister 1904-8 of the Cape Colony after the 2nd Boer War). The Afrikaners were more astute than natives had been caught wind of the early organization and waited until the forces were committed trapping hundreds of Rhode's people creating a great embarrassment.
Its at this point that the Boer made by far the greatest mistake of their history as a people. The 4 years between 1895-9 were when they made the choices that led to their ruin. The British were really embarrassed. A colonial governor who had a crown chartered corporation had been caught red handed engaging in a serious act of war against another sovereign state with no approval from Parliament. The Colonial Office admitted as much and forced Rhodes out of office in 1896. The Afrikaners had real negotiating leverage to work out a deal. It obviously would be extremely important that the next leader of the Cape be friendly. But they didn't decide to negotiate. Instead they started flirting with the Germans, while not actually signing a formal alliance with Germany that at least had the potential to provide them real protection. The flirtation however, turned a nasty incident into a serious threat to all British interests in Southern Africa forcing a British response. In Britain an alliance of Jingoists (populist military hawks) angry about the humiliation of 1st Boer War, Conservative Imperialists who wanted to end Boer independence especially in the ZAR (the 3 core values for Conservatives at the time were: Union with Ireland, the Empire and the superiority of the British race), Liberal Imperialists who supported Rhodes' vision and Missionaries who hated the Boer formed pushing for a war. Seeing this alliance form against them the Afrikaners did nothing to avert the danger. Rather they made a mistake many 2nd tier powers do when it comes to 1st tier powers. The Afrikaners confused the light force and weak will the 1st tier power is willing to spend on them with the amount of force the 1st tier power is capable of employing if it so chooses. Having beaten the British handily in the 1st Boer War when they were fighting the C-team (as I called in part 2) the Afrikaners grossly underestimated what they would face against a British army that had a political mandate for victory, what Britain's A-team would look like. Preparing for something slightly worse than the 1st Boer War the Boer began a serious arms buying program in 1897. ZAR also got more belligerent in their rhetoric which led to a formal alliance with the Orange State and Boer guerilla groups that could support the war effort in the Cape. The Boer had about 63k troops including some foreign troops. .
The British were determined not to lose the 2nd Boer War. This was going to be the British-A team. By the second phase of the war between British soldiers, soldiers from other colonies and local Africans providing auxiliary Boer were facing a 500-600k man army. Nor was the command third or even second rate as it had been in the 1st Boer War. For example, the top military command would be Herbert Kitchener who was fresh from the victorious Anglo-Egyptian invasion of Sudan. Kitchener after the 2nd Boer War would go on to be the Commander-in-Chief for the armies in India and a decade after that the UK's Secretary of State for War during World War 1. He's this guy:
​
Kitchener famous 1914 recruiting poster
The cost to maintain that army would be £60m / year far more than Britain could ever pull out of Southern Africa (GDP and inflation adjusted the Boer War would cost the UK about $250b). The first phase of the war was a Boer offensive while the British were still deploying troops in October–December 1899. Once the British were done they conquered all pockets of resistance in the Cape and Orange as well as essentially the entire ZAR territory January to September 1900. The Afrikaners decided to fight when surrender was the better option. Leading to a guerrilla war between September 1900 and May 1902.
The British simply could not afford to keep an army of that size in the field for years dealing with guerilla tactics until the Boer admitted they were beat. Facing time pressure the British felt they had no choice but to come down hard. The British cut the guerilla war short by instituting a scorched earth policy against areas giving support to guerillas in the ZAR (most of the ZAR). ZAR men were mostly in the militias. Scorched earth destroyed the food supply in the ZAR so the British threw the women and children in concentration camps. The army hadn't prepped for needing to support massive numbers of civilians so malnutrition and disease were rampant in the concentration camps. This disease and malnutrition resulting in a camp death rate of approximately 30% annually. A policy amounting to genocide. Pro Boer forces in the UK generated widespread opposition to the camps so the military response was to not confine woman and children and instead leave civilians on the now barren earth to die of starvation and exposure. Actual POWs were deported to Bermuda and India preventing the Boer from standing any chance of liberating them. African tribes that had lost territory to the Boer began moving in. While both sides had agreed not to arm natives or recruit tribes. But the British weren't going to fight for the Boer if tribes decided to take advantage of their defeat. The Boer were quickly losing everything they were fighting for: freedom, their lands, their family, the self dependence and surrendered rather than have their population geocoded to oblivion, being left with no economy and whatever lands they managed to hold being assaulted on all sides by natives who would take it from them.
The Boer society that emerged from the surrender did not have separatist attitude. Destitute Boers now willing to work in the minds and alongside black Africans swelled the ranks of the unskilled urban poor competing with the "uitlanders" in the mines. The new economy was unambiguously focused on gold causing mine production to swell enriching the British interests. The Afrikaners were both physically and psychologically crushed, and wouldn't be causing any more problems for decades.
In the UK the war came to be seen as excessive especially as the financial cost of the war sunk in. The Conservatives' suffered a spectacular defeat in 1906 driving the Conservative Prime Minister at the time (12 July 1902 – 4 December 1905) Arthur Balfour from office. He comes up rather regularly on this sub in his later role as Foreign Minister. As the Boer are no longer resisting the British Empire the shift towards more pro-Boer policies from England continues. In 1909 the British Parliament dissolves the British colonies of: Cape of Good Hope, Natal, Orange River Colony, and Transvaal and combines them into a Federal Union of South Africa. This makes South Africa into a Dominion (essentially Australia's status at the time). Jan Smuts (an Afrikaner) resurrects Rhodes' idea of a Common Wealth and the British embrace it.
And so we conclude part 3 our story of how the British eventually won and South Africa came to exist. How the Western Left started to hate the Boer, a hatred they would resurrect later. And how the first steps towards apartheid were taken. Whew that was longer than I intended!
​
submitted by JeffB1517 to IsraelPalestine [link] [comments]

online gambling taxes uk video

Online Gambling Firms To Pay 15% Tax In UK. Offshore internet gambling firms used by UK residents are to be hit with a new tax, raising an estimated £300m for the Treasury. History of Betting Duties in the UK. Back in a day, UK punters did pay taxes on their gambling winnings. Those taxes were abolished in 2001 when Gordon Brown was Chancellor of the Exchequer. The Gambling Act of 2005 set up the legal frame for gambling in the UK. For the first time in history, it also regulated internet gambling. In the UK any and all winnings from gambling – either online or at betting shops – are entirely tax free and do not need to be declared as part of any tax return.. This has been the case since the then Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown’s budget of 2001, when he abolished Betting Duty which had stood at 6.75%. Is Gambling Taxable In The UK? No, gambling is tax free in the UK. While players in some countries such as the USA, France, and Macau have to deal with gambling taxes between 1% and 25%, bettors in the United Kingdom have the privilege of keeping the entirety of their winnings. New UK Gambling Act 2021. The Gambling Act 2005 was the first significant piece of legislation to regulate gambling since the legalisation of betting shops and off-track gambling in 1961.It was established to regulate all forms of gambling (except spread betting) under one roof and part of the 2005 Act was to create the Gambling Commission, an independent regulator part of the UK government ... List of information about Gambling duties. Help us improve GOV.UK. To help us improve GOV.UK, we’d like to know more about your visit today. New 21% Point Of Consumption Tax For Remote Gambling in 2019. The UK chancellor, Philip Hammond, announced in his budget in 2018 that the a higher rate 21% point of consumption tax will now be imposed for online gambling on 'games of chance', up from 15%. In other words, online gambling wasn’t really regulated in the UK before 2005. However, land based casinos and sportsbooks existed thanks to the Gambling Act of 1960. Gambling Taxes Introduction To Online Gambling And UK Taxes It was American president Benjamin Franklin who famously said nothing was certain in life but death and taxes. Sadly we haven’t come any closer to avoiding the first of those, but when it comes to taxes and online real money gambling there’s some rather good news for UK players. The gambling sector just can’t stay out of the headlines at the moment. But it’s not all positive news, as Westminster looks primed to make sweeping changes to the UK’s gambling laws.

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