This is just mock draft 1 and we're a long way from the actual draft so I'm open to criticism, position suggestions, player evaluation disagreements, etc. Let me know what you think (third round explanations deleted due to word count restraints).

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson. Lawrence is in the discussion for best QB prospect of all time and will be the pick.
   
2. New York Jets - QB Justin Fields, Ohio State. I'm working under the assumption that Deshaun Watson will not be traded. After a deep dive into analytics and spending way too much time breaking down game tape, I personally would go with Fields over Wilson. But, they have virtually the same grade and I would not be shocked by either player being picked.
   
3. Denver Broncos (from Miami via Houston) - QB Zach Wilson, BYU. With Zach Wilson still on the board at pick 3, John Elway, George Paton and the Broncos go all in to get their franchise QB. If your division rival is lining up Patrick Mahomes under center, you need to do better than Drew Lock to compete. The Broncos have a franchise left tackle to anchor their line, and a very talented young group of weapons. They've build a roster friendly to a franchise QB, so the timing is right to make this move for Denver. As the Rams have proven, you don't need first round picks to build a roster that competes for championships.
   
4. Atlanta Falcons - OT Penei Sewell, Oregon. I 'm not sure this move will be popular with Falcons fans, but here goes. With the Broncos trading up and taking the last of the top QBs in this class off the board, the Falcons suddenly have a difficult decision to make. Do you take a raw, inexperienced QB like Trey Lance, or do you take best player available? Here I have the Falcons going best player available because Matt Ryan is still a top QB, and due to his contract situation he's going to be on the roster for at least two more years. That gives them a bigger window to add more talent to the roster before selecting Ryan's replacement. And it would probably be prudent for the Falcons to build a roster then get a QB, rather than get a QB and build the roster after, when the QB prospect in question is a project. Unfortunately, there are no pass rushing prospects who really fit here, although Dean Pees' defense should help to mask that deficiency some and there are good value prospects who should be available on day 2. A.J. Terrell had a promising rookie season, but beyond him they need both depth and talent at CB so one of the top CB prospects is an option here. However, for Arthur Smith's new offense getting a prospect like Sewell is too good of an option. With his contract being easy to move on from, I'm projecting the Falcons cut James Carpenter and select Sewell to move to guard to start his career. This gives them a lot of talent on the offensive line and a lot of flexibility in the future. Should Matthews begin to decline, they can move on and slide Sewell out to left. If McGary doesn't get better in his third year, Sewell could be a long term replacement there. And the main factor that led me to making this pick is that Arthur Smith didn't take the Atlanta job to rebuild. He's got a really good QB in Matt Ryan and Sewell at guard gives the Falcons the best chance at closing out the Ryan era on a high note.
   
5. Cincinnati Bengals - OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern. Thanks to the Broncos trading up for Wilson, the Bengals are guaranteed at least one of the top offensive line prospects in the class being on the board, and although Sewell is gone at 4 Slater is still an excellent prize at 5. As tempting as it may be to reunite Burrow and Chase, the Bengals have to protect their franchise QB. Ideally, Jonah Williams is healthy, but after two years he's had a tough time staying on the field so a guy like Slater who can play any position on the line is perfect here.
   
6. Philadelphia Eagles - WR Devonta Smith, Alabama. While I do think it would be smart for the Eagles to draft a CB here, I think Nick Sirianni's odds of surviving in Philly will go way down if he can't fix Wentz. I also think Roseman knows his job is tied to the success of Wentz, given the contract he gave to Wentz. Because of that I've decided to go with a WR here. If I'm being honest, I'm not entirely sure that Smith is the best WR prospect in this class. It's really close between the top 3. However, I think the areas in which Smith excels make him the best fit for Sirianni's offense.
   
7. Detroit Lions - WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU. While QB was expected to be a target, thanks to the acquisition of Jared Goff the Lions do not need to draft a QB here. In fact, I think it's pretty unlikely that the Lions pick a QB here. Jared Goff has had success in the NFL and he's helped lead his team to a Super Bowl, he may not be a top QB but he's a capable starter. Given the influx of draft capital, the Lions cap situation, and the fact that Goff's contract is virtually unmovable for the next two years they are likely going to use this window to build the roster back up. While I think a CB could be a good fit here, they did just draft Okudah last year who should be given a chance to grow in a new defense, especially since the transition from college to the NFL takes longer at that position. Micah Parsons is tempting here too, as linebacker is a need for the Lions. But given the cap situation and the fact that Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Danny Amendola are all set to be free agents, I've decided to give the Lions a WR. Not only does this give the Lions a cheap, young, and talented option at WR (allowing them to move on from some of those would-be free agents), he's also arguably the top prospect left on the board.
   
8. Carolina Panthers - CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama. There are a lot of options the Panthers could go with here. I debated between Micah Parsons and Surtain here because while I think the Panthers defense should improve next year, they're still missing consistent ILB play as well as a true #1 CB. Ultimately I chose Surtain over Parsons based on positional value given similar position on my board. I also chose Surtain over Farley because I think he's a better fit in Phil Snow's defense. He's physical and sticky in coverage, and I think he would be a great complement at cornerback to go with safety Chinn. I think OL could be considered here, but I'm not sure reaching for OL when there is better value at other positions of need makes sense. Trey Lance could be an option here, but I (perhaps incorrectly) think Fitterer and Rhule will pass on a QB if they can get a top defensive prospect. This would effectively buy another year for them to build up the roster if they choose to go with a QB in the first round of 2022.
   
9. Miami Dolphins (from Denver) - LB Micah Parsons, Penn State. Thanks to a number of trades, real and mocked, the Dolphins have a lot of draft capital and they can use some of that to get weapons for Tua Tagovailoa. But here, they take the best player still on the board. Brian Flores loves to blitz, and Parsons is one of the best blitzing linebacker prospects in years. Jaylen Waddle would be a good pick here too, but the fit is too perfect for me to pass here.
   
10. Dallas Cowboys - CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech. The Cowboys offense will not be a problem with Prescott back in the lineup. The defense needs a lot of work though, so as tempting as Kyle Pitts may be the Cowboys will almost certainly go defense here. The Cowboys have some cornerbacks set to be free agents but they are not worth re-signing. Farley is the best cornerback on the board and is a great value here for Dallas. The Cowboys could look at a couple other positions on defense, but they won't find the value they'd be getting in Caleb Farley.
    
11. Chicago Bears (from New York Giants) - QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State. With the 49ers pick looming, the Bears pull the trigger to move up and get their QB. The Bears have Nick Foles under contract for two more years but he can be cut after next season. Given that situation, the Bears can afford to sit Lance for at least a year and let him develop. He's got all of the tools to be a great QB, but due to the fact that he only played one year at the FCS level, he falls to 11.
    
12. San Francisco 49ers - CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina. Injuries decimated a roster that is talented enough to compete for championships when healthy, so the 49ers can afford to focus on needs. Horn might be seen as a reach here by some, but the drop-off at cornerback is huge and the 49ers need to address the position in the offseason with so many impending free agents. Regardless, Horn is an excellent prospect and be a good pick for first time DC Ryans.
    
13. Los Angeles Chargers - OL Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC. Justin Herbert emerged as one of the most promising young QBs in the game despite poor offensive line play. The Chargers need to improve the line, so they can't justify reaching for a tackle because of positional value. They just need to take the best lineman on the board, and that's Vera-Tucker. There's some discussion as to whether he can make it as a tackle at the next level, but most have him projected as a guard. Wherever he plays, he should be an upgrade for the Chargers.
    
14. Minnesota Vikings - EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan. The Vikings would love to improve their interior offensive line, but there's better value on day 2, so the Vikings go with a pass rusher here. The Vikings had one of the best defenses in 2019, and a big part of that was the pass rush. Last year however, the pass rush was ineffective and the defense fell apart. Getting Danielle Hunter back and pairing him with Paye while rotating D.J. Wonnum and Jalyn Holmes in could restore the Vikings pass rush and help get them back to the postseason.
    
15. New England Patriots - LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame. Although he played in a different scheme at Notre Dame than Bill Belichick uses, Owusu-Koramoah is one of the most versatile defenders in the class. He has shown the ability to rush the passer, drop back in coverage, and his elite sideline to sideline speed for the position that makes him an ideal linebacker against modern offenses. The Patriots need to get younger and faster on defense. As much as I want to add a weapon like Waddle or Pitts to the Patriots, I'm just not convinced that Belichick will actually do that in the first round.
    
16. Arizona Cardinals - EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami (FL). With Haason Reddick and Markus Golden both set to hit free agency, and Chandler Jones coming off of an injury, heading into his age 31 season, and on the final year of his contract, the Cardinals pass rush is inevitably going to look different in the next couple of years. With a prospect as good as Phillips on the board, drafting him to replace Jones and re-signing Reddick will give the Cardinals a formidable pass rush for the foreseeable future. If the Cardinals want to continue to close the gap with the Rams and Seahawks, they can't let their pass rush decline.
    
17. Las Vegas Raiders - WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama. Every year a couple players drop farther than they should. This year, one of those players is Jaylen Waddle. The Raiders need to improve their defense, and there are some tempting players on the board for the Raiders to take, such as Gregory Rousseau. But the Raiders outside threats could have been better this year, and Jon Gruden will jump at the opportunity to put Waddle with Waller and Ruggs. Waddle is up there with the best weapons in this class, so this is a great value for the Raiders at 17.
    
18. Miami Dolphins - WR Kadarius Toney, Florida. Having already landed one of the best defensive players, Miami now turns its attention to surrounding Tagovailoa with the talent to thrive. The Dolphins got good production from DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki, but could upgrade the rest of their receiving corps. Toney is electric and gives the Dolphins a playmaker over the middle of the field, which is exactly what Miami could use to help Tagovailoa grow.
    
19. Washington Football Team - TE Kyle Pitts, Florida. Washington didn't get their QB in this draft, but they get incredible value at 19 in Pitts. Besides Terry McLaurin, Washington doesn't really have a true playmaker at receiver so Pitts would immediately upgrade the offense. Given how good Washington's defense is, if they can't get a QB by trading up their main goal should be to improve their weapons and Pitts would be the ideal scenario.
    
20. New York Giants (from Chicago) - EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami (FL). The Giants biggest need is probably their wide receiver room, but with the top prospect on the board being a pass rusher, the Giants go with one of the highest upside defensive prospects in the class in Rousseau. The Giants don't have a lot of talent on the edge, so they fill a need here.
    
21. Indianapolis Colts - OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech. The Colts have boasted one of the best offensive lines in the NFL in recent years, and with Anthony Castonzo retiring, the Colts will want to keep their line in top shape by drafting his replacement. His length, athleticism, and intelligence make him the preferred tackle target for the Colts here.
    
22. Tennessee Titans - EDGE Joseph Ossai, Texas. The Titans are a very good team, and most improvements that could be made would be to improve depth. But the one area the Titans desperately need to improve if they want to legitimately compete for championships is their pass rush and defensive line. Ossai is the most explosive pass rush prospect left on the board who can fit with their defensive scheme.
    
23. San Francisco 49ers (from New York Jets via Seattle) – QB Mac Jones, Alabama. The 49ers move up to get the guy they believe can be their next franchise QB. In this scenario, the 49ers were targeting Trey Lance at 12, but because of the Chicago trade, they opted instead to take Horn, who is higher on the draft board and can help their secondary which will be losing some pieces to free agency. When Mac Jones gets past Washington at 19, they believe they can move up into the mid-20s for a reasonable value and get their QB. The best value in terms of trading draft capital is at 23, and they have to make this move to get ahead of Pittsburgh who could potentially take Jones to replace Ben Roethlisberger. The 49ers are now without a pick until the 5th round, but it's worth it to secure their QB of the future.
    
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Jalen Mayfield, Michigan. The Steelers cap space isn't great right now, although Roethlisberger restructuring his contract will help. In any case, the Steelers are going to have to move on from some players, and one that makes sense is Alejandro Villanueva. He's played well, but he's going to be 33 next year, and rather than paying a veteran LT salary with tight cap space, it makes sense to draft his replacement. Mayfield is very technically sound and is nasty, two things that have defined Pittsburgh offensive line play over the years. There may be concern about him playing right tackle at Michigan, but as Jedrick Wills proved for the Browns, a move to left tackle is possible for a top prospect. Running back is also a possibility here, but there's better value in later rounds.
    
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams) - S Trevon Moehrig, TCU. The Jaguars weren't accidentally the number one pick. They were terrible on both offense and defense, and with so much early draft capital they don't have to reach on players in the name of protecting Lawrence at all costs. The Jaguars have some nice weapons on offense, and there will be good offensive line prospects on the board in the second round. They need to improve their secondary badly, and Moehrig is an immediate impact player with good versatility, and would be an instant upgrade over Josh Jones, who should not return to the team in 2021. Moehrig is arguably the highest graded prospect left on the board, he has a high floor, he's ready to play right away, and he fills a need.
    
26. Cleveland Browns - LB Zaven Collins, Tulsa. The Browns have a lot of holes on defense, and linebacker in particular is an area that they need to address. Despite being massive for a linebacker, Collins is quick and athletic and can play in coverage. He also has good pass rushing ability, which is an area that Cleveland needs to improve opposite of Myles Garrett. His versatility makes him valuable in multiple packages which should help him get on the field early, something that Cleveland should value at the end of the first round given that their competitive window is open.
    
27. Baltimore Ravens - EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia. The Ravens need to give Lamar Jackson better weapons on the outside, but with such a good, deep running attack, the Ravens can afford to wait until the second round. The Ravens have several pass rushers set to become free agents, and they won't be able to bring all of them back. In any case, the Ravens could use an upgrade at the position anyway. Although Ojulari played in 4 man fronts, his size, speed, and athleticism make him a natural fit as an edge rusher in a 3 man front defense. His energy is also a great fit for the Ravens defense.
    
28. New Orleans Saints - EDGE Jayson Oweh, Penn State. The Saints have the worst cap situation in the NFL and because of that they're going to lose some key free agents. One guy that they almost certainly will not be able to retain is breakout DE Trey Hendrickson, who registered 13.5 sacks in 2020 and should be in line for a nice raise on the free agent market. Oweh has tremendous upside due to his freakish athleticism, explosiveness, and length. He's a bit raw, and will need some time to develop, but with Cameron Jordan on the opposite side of the line Oweh is the type of player the Saints can afford to target.
    
29. Green Bay Packers - WR Tutu Atwell, Louisville. Aaron Rodgers covers the deficiencies of the wide receiver room well, but the Packers do need to improve their weapons. Adams and Tonyan are good pieces, but St. Brown, Lazard, and Valdez-Scantling can't be the secondary options at wide receiver. Adding an electric slot receiver in Atwell makes sense given the profile of the rest of the receivers on the roster.
    
30. Buffalo Bills - EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington. The Bills have a very complete roster, but they could definitely improve their pass rush. Getting to the quarterback, namely Patrick Mahomes, will be the Bills best chance of getting over the hump and into the Super Bowl. Tryon is a nice scheme fit, and should be able to see the field instantly, something a contender like Buffalo will be looking for here. I was tempted to mock a running back here, as there's great talent left on the board, but I think the Bills are more likely to ride with their 3rd round picks from 2019 and 2020, Singletary and Moss.
    
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DT Levi Onwuzurike, Washington. The Buccaneers have a loaded offense, so the focus should be on the defense, specifically the defensive line. With Gholston having only one more year on his contract, and Suh set to be a free agent, a high upside 3-tech like Onwuzurike makes a lot of sense here. Not to mention, a team that is good enough to make the super bowl can afford to draft BPA, and Onwuzurike is among the best players still on the board here.
    
32. Kansas City Chiefs - OL Alex Leatherwood, Alabama. Kansas City needs to start getting younger on the offensive line. Both Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz are under contract for 2021, but after that they're free agents. Leatherwood has shown the versatility to slide in anywhere on the line, and could be a day one starter for the Chiefs wherever they need him. This pick could also be used on another weapon or a defensive player, but the value here is too good for Leatherwood.
    

Round 2

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - DL Dayvion Nixon, Iowa. One of the hallmarks of Urban Meyer's Florida and Ohio State teams were deep, talented defensive lines. The Jaguars have a few nice pieces in Josh Allen and Doug Costin, but overall the unit needs to improve. Nixon is one of only a few interior defensive line prospects who offers high upside impact, and getting him here at the start of the second round is good value.
   
2. New York Jets - CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern. The Jets have problems with their cornerbacks. Their best cornerback is set to be a free agent, but even if he returns he's only a slot corner. Bryce Hall has shown a lot of promise, but there's not much on the roster behind him. Newsome is a smart, instinctive corner who will fit into Saleh's scheme nicely, and should be ready to compete for a starting role early.
   
3. Atlanta Falcons - RB Najee Harris, Alabama. While it may be unlikely that there are no running backs in the first round (hasn't happened since 2014), I think this draft is so talented that it could happen. As I said earlier, I think the Arthur Smith will try to make win now moves and having a power running game is an important part of Arthur Smith's offensive philosophy. Najee Harris is the top running back on the board and the top prospect left on the board, so everything from fit to value is excellent here for Atlanta.
   
4. Miami Dolphins (from Houston) - RB Travis Etienne, Clemson. Another running back off the board, this time it's the electric back from Clemson. Having already added Toney, now the Miami offense gets arguably the top receiving back in the class. This move makes the offense one of the fastest in the league, and the combination of Etienne and Gaskin gives the Dolphins one of the best young running back rooms in the league.
   
5. Philadelphia Eagles - CB Eric Stokes, Georgia. I nearly went with a CB in round 1 for the Eagles, but it was too hard to pass up on a receiver. The Eagles have a nice CB1 in Slay, but he's getting older and the rest of the CB group needs to be upgraded. Stokes has the ideal size, speed, and length that teams are looking for on the outside and has the experience to challenge for a starting spot early.
   
6. Cincinnati Bengals - EDGE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh. The Bengals already added a top offensive lineman for Burrow, but they have to address the defense early on. Even if the Bengals re-sign Lawson, they need to have more talent on the defensive line to get pressure on opposing QBs. Jones is a good scheme fit and his versatility makes him an attractive option here in the 2nd round.
   
7. Carolina Panthers - LB Nick Bolton, Missouri. The Panthers add another impact playmaker for Phil Snow's defense, a guy who could fill the void that they were unable to fill after Keuchly's retirement. There are several options here, but Bolton at 39 is incredible value and the Panthers jump all over a guy with first round upside.
   
8. Miami Dolphins (from Denver) - C Landon Dickerson, Alabama. Ted Karras is set to be a free agent, but Miami can upgrade the center position here and get the best prospect at the position in the draft. Dickerson has positional versatility and is well respected for his leadership so this is a great value and culture pick for Miami.
   
9. Detroit Lions - CB Aaron Robinson, UCF. Robinson has the ideal size and length that NFL teams look for, and he's got a lot of experience both inside and outside. The production from the Lions CB room was abysmal in 2020, so more talent needs to be added, even if Jeff Okudah makes the expected year two leap.
   
10. New York Giants - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC. Dave Gettleman is a meat and potatoes guy, and he got his high upside defensive lineman in the first round. But he's going to have to start giving Daniel Jones weapons if they really believe he's the future. Obviously getting Saquon Barkley back will help, but the wide receiver room is aging, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is an outside receiver with WR1 potential who can inject youth and talent into that position group for the Giants.
    
11. New York Jets (from San Francisco) - OG Wyatt Davis, Ohio State. The fact that the Jets have a weak offensive line is no secret. Mekhi Becton was a home run draft pick at left tackle last season, but the Jets need to continue adding offensive line talent to avoid their next franchise QB getting killed. Despite another All-American season, Davis' 2020 tape is not as good as his 2019 tape, so he falls to the mid-2nd here. While there are some concerns, he's the best interior offensive line prospect left on the board and he does have upside.
    
12. Dallas Cowboys - DT Christian Barmore, Alabama. The Cowboys defense needs to improve, especially in the run game. Neville Gallimore showed promise, but adding Barmore gives the defensive line a lot more depth and talent. Barmore has the experience to step in right away and produce, something that will be important for the Cowboys who should be looking to win a down NFC East with a healthy Prescott.
    
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Minnesota) - TE Pat Freiermuth, Penn State. Friermuth is an excellent pass catching TE, but he's also one of the better blocking tight ends in this class. This versatility addresses two needs for Jaguars on offense. There's a lot of upside in the Jaguars WR room, so adding a playmaker at TE makes sense, especially because their top tight ends are getting older.
    
14. New England Patriots - WR Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU. The Patriots need to address the wide receiver position, and after passing on a WR in the first round they land a falling Marshall with the 46th pick, so the Patriots end up with a great value in the 2nd round.
    
15. Los Angeles Chargers - OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State. The Chargers line was so bad, and the value at 47 is so good, that I'm going to mock the Chargers double dipping at offensive line with their first two picks. Sam Tevi's contract is up, and he was not good enough to re-sign. The Chargers have to upgrade this spot, and getting a guy like Jenkins here is an easy decision.
    
16. Las Vegas Raiders - DT Marlon Tuipulotu, USC. The Raiders need to upgrade the defensive line, especially on the interior where Maliek Collins and Johnathan Hankins were not high impact players. Tuipulotu has great strength and technique, and has three years of starting experience so he should be ready to start right away for the Raiders.
    
17. Arizona Cardinals - CB Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State. Arguably the biggest need for Arizona is cornerback, but with the way the board fell in the first the value was better for other positions of need. Here in the 2nd, they get one of the stickiest corners in the draft. He's a bit undersized, but he's great in man coverage and will be a good scheme fit for Vance Joseph's defense.
    
18. Miami Dolphins - EDGE Ronnie Perkins, Oklahoma. The Dolphins pick for the fifth time in this mock already, and have addressed a lot of needs so far. One area where they could get better is pass rush depth. While Perkins doesn't jump out as an ideal fit in Flores' defensive scheme, he's got the size, strength, and athleticism should allow him to transition to a standup edge rusher, or rotate in on pass rush situations with his hand on the dirt. He's got all the tools to create pressure in the NFL, and would give Flores a weapon that would allow him to get creative with his defensive play calls.
    
19. Washington Football Team - OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas. Washington has an aging line, so getting some youth in the building would be a good strategy. Cornelius Lucas played well enough to have a chance to win the starting LT job in 2021, but he'll be 30 and in a contract year and Morgan Moses will have two years left on his contract. Financially it would make sense to get a long term solution at tackle early in the draft. Cosmi's strengths are a good fit for Scott Turner's blocking schemes.
    
20. New York Giants (from Chicago) - CB Tyson Campbell, Georgia. Using this additional pick acquired from Chicago, the Giants address three of their biggest needs in the first two rounds by taking Campbell to go with Rousseau and St. Brown. There are definitely issues on Campbell's tape, but his assignment's in Graham's defense should minimize those weaknesses while maximizing his strength in man coverage. Campbell has elite size, length, and athleticism, so he has tremendous upside.
    
21. Tennessee Titans - WR Rondale Moore, Purdue. The Titans have a very good offense, but are likely going to move on from Corey Davis after the emergence of A.J. Brown. Adding arguably the most electric playmaker in the draft, Rondale Moore, would help keep the Titans offense among the most potent in the NFL.
    
22. New York Jets (from Indianapolis) - RB Javonte Williams, UNC. The Jets need to add some weapons, and with Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims on the roster, and better free agent options such as Allen Robinson, Corey Davis, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kenny Golladay potentially hitting the market, the Jets can add the best weapon on the board, Javonte Williams. He's excellent in the passing game and should fit nicely with the new running scheme.
    
23. Kansas City Chiefs (from Pittsburgh) - WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota. With one of the top WR prospects still on the board, and a number of teams ahead of them who could look for a WR, the Chiefs pull the trigger and move up. The Steelers, who have a lot of players headed to free agency, are happy to move down and get more draft picks to try to rebuild the roster with cheaper contracts. Bateman is a good route runner with excellent high point skills, so he's a perfect fit in the offense to replace Watkins.
    
24. Seattle Seahawks - OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State. The Seahawks need to make a move on the offensive line at some point, and Radunz is a good prospect here. Cedric Ogbuehi is a free agent, but they could upgrade at RT anyway, and Duane Brown is 35 and only has one year left on his contract. The Seahawks could possibly look at a pass rusher or cornerback here, but the best value on the board is at tackle.
    
25. Los Angeles Rams - LB Baron Browning, Ohio State. There are rumblings that some teams view Browning as a potential first round talent. The athleticism is off the charts, and he's got the speed, explosiveness, length, and motor that NFL teams covet. The upside is undeniable and he's lauded for his character and leadership. Combine that with his experience and versatility, and he's the kind of guy who can come in right away and upgrade the Rams inside linebacker spot, one of the few positions that needs a major upgrade for a team that's going all in to win a Super Bowl.
    
26. Baltimore Ravens - WR Nico Collins, Michigan. The Ravens need to give Lamar Jackson better weapons on the outside, and Nico Collins has elite size and vertical ball skills, something the Ravens are missing at wide receiver. A lot of the best remaining day 2 caliber receivers are better suited for a slot role, so the Ravens pull the trigger on one of the best outside guys left on the board.
    
27. Cleveland Browns - EDGE Jordan Smith, UAB. The Browns desperately need to get some pass rushing help opposite of Myles Garrett. There are some red flags with Smith, but the size and athleticism of Smith make him too good to pass up here. With Collins and Smith, the Browns defense gets a lot bigger, faster, and more talented.
    
28. New Orleans Saints - LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina. All of the Saints moves are going to be made with the salary cap in mind. One of the obvious cost saving moves is to cut Kwon Alexander. The Saints would save more than $13 million without taking on any dead money. Surratt is an excellent player who provides the Saints good value here.
    
29. Buffalo Bills - DT Jay Tufele, USC. The Bills will want to add a cornerback at some point, but with the way the board has fallen Tufele is too good of a value here to pass up on. The Bills need to get better interior defensive line play, and Tufele fits nicely into Frazier's defensive scheme, so this is a good fit as well.
    
30. Green Bay Packers - CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse. The Packers could address a number of positions here, but Kevin King played poorly and is set to become a free agent anyway. Melifonwu has elite size, and has been climbing draft boards. He may be a bit of a project, but we're getting into the range where there are very few instant impact guys left on the board.
    
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - C Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma. With Donovan Smith, Ryan Jensen, and Aaron Stinnie's contracts all set to expire either this year or next year, adding some offensive line help makes sense. Jensen is the weakest of the group, and will likely walk in 2021 if the Buccaneers can acquire a top prospect through the draft. Regardless, the Buccaneers are going to have to add more depth to the center group so the talented Humphrey fills a need.
    
32. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Kansas City) - RB Michael Carter, North Carolina. James Conner is set to be a free agent, and it makes financial sense for the Steelers to move on from him. Carter is an excellent value at the bottom of the second round, and he's excellent in the passing game, so he'll be a great fit for the Steelers. Running backs also have the ability to make an impact right away, which is crucial for a team looking to make one last run with QB Ben Roethlisberger.
    

Third Round

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - OT Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame.
   
2. New York Jets - WR Elijah Moore, Ole Miss.
   
3. Houston Texans - S Jevon Holland, Oregon.
   
4. Atlanta Falcons - EDGE, Carlos Basham Jr., Wake Forrest.
   
5. Cincinnati Bengals - WR D'Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan.
   
6. Philadelphia Eagles - EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami (FL).
   
7. Miami Dolphins (from Denver) - S Richie Grant, UCF.
   
8. Detroit Lions - LB Cameron McGrone, Michigan.
   
9. Carolina Panthers - QB Kyle Trask, Florida.
   
10. Washington Football Team (from San Francisco) - CB Elijah Molden, Washington.
    
11. Dallas Cowboys - LB Pete Werner, Ohio State.
    
12. New York Giants - OT James Hudson, Cincinnati.
    

XX. New England Patriots - Forfeited

1. Los Angeles Chargers - DT Tommy Togiai, Ohio State.
   
2. Minnesota Vikings - OG Ben Cleveland, Georgia.
   
3. Arizona Cardinals - C Josh Myers, Ohio State.
   
4. Las Vegas Raiders - S Ar'Darius Washington, TCU.
   
5. Miami Dolphins - CB Shaun Wade, Ohio State.
   
6. Washington Football Team - WR Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State.
   
7. Chicago Bears - OT Walker Little, Stanford.
   
8. Indianapolis Colts - EDGE Hamilcar Rashed Jr., Oregon State.
   
9. Tennessee Titans - DT Marvin Wilson, Florida State.
   
10. New York Jets (from Seattle) - LB Charles Snowden, Virginia.
    
11. Pittsburgh Steelers - WR Shi Smith, South Carolina.
    
12. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams) - S Hamsah Nasirildeen, Florida State.
    
13. Cleveland Browns - DT Jaylen Twyman, Pittsburgh.
    
14. Minnesota Vikings (from Baltimore) - WR Amari Rodgers, Clemson.
    
15. Cleveland Browns (from New Orleans) - WR Seth Williams, Auburn.
    
16. Green Bay Packers - EDGE Payton Turner, Houston.
    
17. Buffalo Bills - CB Paulson Adebo, Stanford.
    
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo, Vanderbilt.
    
19. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Kansas City) - TE Brevin Jordan, Miami (FL).
    

Compensatory Picks

1. New England Patriots - QB Davis Mills, Stanford.
   
2. Los Angeles Chargers - TE Hunter Long, Boston College.
   
3. New Orleans Saints - RB Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State.
   
4. Dallas Cowboys - S Andre Cisco, Syracuse.
   
5. Tennessee Titans - OT Brady Christensen, BYU.
   
6. Los Angeles Rams - CB Israel Mukuamu, South Carolina.
   
7. San Francisco 49ers - EDGE Victor Dimukeje, Duke.
   
8. Los Angeles Rams - OT Spencer Brown, Northern Iowa.
   
9. Baltimore Ravens - DT Tyler Shelvin, LSU.
   
10. New Orleans Saints - CB Kary Vincent Jr., LSU.
    

Trades:
Indianapolis Colts receive: QB Sam Darnold New York Jets receive: Indianapolis 2021 2nd, 5th
This trade value is based on internet rumors and a similar trade in 1987, where the San Francisco 49ers sent a 2nd and 4th round pick to Tampa Bay for 2nd year starter Steve Young. Steve Young was 3-16, with 11 TDs, 21 INTs, a 53.3 comp% and a 63.1 QB rating in two seasons with Tampa Bay but his upside netted a nice return. I think for several reasons, such as the fact that neither Douglas nor Saleh drafted Darnold and the potential to reset the cap window by drafting a 1st round QB, the Jets will trade Darnold. The Colts have a good offensive line and much better weapons than the Jets, so Indianapolis could be a good destination for Darnold after they missed out on Stafford.
***
Denver receives: Houston 2021 1st (3) via Miami Miami receives: Denver 2021 1st (9), 2nd (40), 3rd (71), 2022 1st, 2nd, 2023 2nd
***
Chicago receives: New York Giants 2021 1st (11) New York Giants receive: Chicago 1st (20), 2nd (52), 2022 1st
***
San Francisco receives: Seattle 2021 1st (23) via New York Jets New York Jets receive: San Francisco 2021 2nd (43), 4th, 2022 2nd
***
Kansas City receives: Pittsburgh 2021 2nd (55) Pittsburgh receives: Kansas City 2021 2nd (64), 3rd (95) ***
QB Notes: New England signs Ryan Fitzpatrick Indianapolis trades for Sam Darnold from New York Jets New Orleans re-signs Jameis Winston Washington re-signs Kyle Allen

Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 18th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming home game against the Ravens. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long be prepared, these playoff posts are very long and highly detailed. If this is your first time reading, I hope you enjoy and can find the time to finish the whole thing.
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Ravens’ Passing Defense
After yet another great performance throwing the ball the Buffalo Bills are proving that they can beat anyone and everyone through the air. In their past 4 games the Bills have played the #11 (DEN), #18 (NWE), #6 (MIA), and #8 (IND) pass defenses, according to Football Outsiders Pass Defense DVOA, and have gone 108/153 (70.6%) for 1415 yards and a 12:2 TD:INT Ratio (Josh Allen’s stats here). Making the Bills recent run of success more impressive is that they have been successful against starkly different schemes, with tangible evidence the past two weeks. The Dolphins, who predominately run man coverage, were shredded for 388 passing yards, 124 of which came while targeting First Team All-Pro CB Xavien Howard. The Bills followed up this performance with Josh Allen picking apart the Colt’s Zone First Scheme for a Playoff leading passer rating of 121.6 (His regular season Passer Rating was 107.2). All of this leads to the following conclusion, with the way the Bills are playing right now there does not seem to be any specific scheme, team, or player that is capable of stopping the Bills’ passing attack.
Against the Ravens the Bills will need to find a way to beat Press Man Coverage. With one of the most physically gifted set of DBs in the NFL, headlined by Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens are particularly adept at this scheme. Their top two corners have both earned All-Pro honors at least once in their career primarily due to their physicality, but it is their ball skills which put them over the top. In 164 combined games Peters and Humphrey have 42 INTs, 20 FF, 11 FR, and 9 Defensive TDs. With the growing expectation that the Bills will primarily run 10 personnel (1RB, 4WR) the Ravens will likely spend the majority of Saturday in their Nickel package meaning that Jimmy Smith will join the previously mentioned CBs on the field. This sets up likely man matchups of Peters on Diggs, Smith on Brown, Humphrey in the Slot covering Beasley, and one of the two safeties (Chuck Clark, DeShon Elliott) on Gabe Davis. In this alignment the Ravens would be forced to choose between blitzing the safety not covering Davis or having that player shade deep over the top to Diggs side of the field. At the end of the day this will be a game of 1-on-1 matchups with the winner determined by which side can consistently beat the other.
The Ravens’ Press Man is able to excel because of their skill in the secondary but where it becomes one of the most dangerous schemes in the NFL is their proficiency and consistency in rushing the passer. For the 3rd straight season the Ravens lead the NFL in Blitz %, this year blitzing 44.1% of the time (Dolphins are 2nd at 40.6%). This facilitated an environment where the Ravens were able to pressure opposing QBs on 24.0% of their drop backs (NFL-11) and sack those QBs 39 times (NFL-14). The Press Man and Pass Rush work in concert by reducing the ability for offenses to complete quick short passes which then allows the pass rush more time to disrupt the QB. The Ravens will send anywhere from 5-8 players at the QB with the players primarily running up field being Patrick Queen (MLB) and Matt Judon (OLB) but when forced into Nickel concepts the Ravens will not hesitate to send either safety. All of this allowed the 2019 Ravens to put constant pressure on Josh Allen during their game last season ultimately resulting in 5 sacks for a loss (6 total) with 4 of them occurring with 5+ blitzers (#1, #2, #3, #4). It is however important to note that the Buffalo Bills offense from 2019 looks absolutely nothing like they do in 2020, in fact it is remarkable how drastically different they truly look.
This matchup comes down to the Bills receivers being able to beat whichever DB is lined up in front of them. If the Bills can accomplish this, then it will allow Allen to get rid of the ball before the Ravens pass rush is able to get to him. If the reverse were to occur it will create an environment where multiple blindside forced fumbles and/or interceptions may occur which would be incredibly difficult for the Bills to recover from. While on paper this matchup may be extremely close the reality is that the Bills simply have to many weapons that excel at beating man coverage for the Ravens to consistently stop. Stefon Diggs is widely regarded as one of the best receivers against man coverage in the entire NFL while the quickness of Cole Beasley provides for the ability to continuously beat man coverage in the intermediate range. Couple this with the Ravens struggles in covering TEs and RBs while still considering that the Ravens will need to find a way to contend with Gabe Davis and John Brown and the Bills, surprisingly, have a massive advantage here.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Defense
With Zack Moss going down with a season ending injury Wildcard weekend most Bills’ fans have spent this week wondering who RB2 will be behind Devin Singletary. Up until Thursday afternoon it was very clearly a three-horse race between T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, and Devonta Freeman but via a statement from Sean McDermott we now know the winner of that race. T.J. Yeldon will suit up on Saturday night and be the RB2 behind Devin Singletary. McDermott also did make it very clear that this did not preclude the Bills from activating Antonio Williams for the Ravens game. Regardless of if it is one or two backs behind Singletary we can say with a fair degree of certainty that he will be the Bellcow back moving forward for Buffalo, meaning you can expect him to see north of 75% of the offensive snaps. One concern with that is in games where Singletary has exceeded 60% of offensive snaps (6) in 2020 he has a Y/A of 3.6 and in all other games he has a Y/A of 5.1. Let me make this abundantly clear, and see all of my previous posts for proof, I believe that the majority of the issues running the ball in 2020 are due to the blocking up front and not the RBs carrying the ball however, this stark contrast in Y/A should be a concern moving forward for a Bills’ team who at times will need to show they can move the ball on the ground if they want to continue winning football games.
This section now lends itself to a breakdown of the backups to Singletary on Saturday, one we know, and one is a maybe. With that in mind we start with T.J. Yeldon who has demonstrated the ability to be a competent runner of the football throughout his career with an acceptable 4.1 Y/A. Yeldon possesses exceptional agility for a player that is 6’1” 225lb and at times in his career has been one of the more dangerous receiving options in the NFL coming out of the backfield. The main knock Bills’ fans have on Yeldon is his fumbling where he has lost the ball 7 times on 677 career touches (1 per 97), for context Singletary has 5 on 374 (1 per 75). Next to discuss is the new darling of Bills Mafia, undrafted rookie Antonio Williams. One of the bigger unknowns on the Bills’ roster, Williams busted onto the scene against Miami with 83 all-purpose yards on 13 touches for 2 TDs in just one half. Out of UNC the 5’11” 215lb RB, who looks and plays much bigger, possesses exceptional lateral quickness and does not shy away from contact making him a dangerous player once he gets to the second level. Also, while it is highly improbable, we see him Saturday, I would be remised to not mention the signing of 2-time Pro Bowler Devonta Freeman who just a few years back was considered one of the best RBs in the game. Freeman suffered a groin injury in 2018 which required surgery which has since deprived him of some of the quickness that made him one of the biggest home run threats in the league. Still, Freeman provides a veteran presence with gas left in the tank, at just 28, he could be an integral part of the Bills’ Playoff push. All these players may play a factor if the Bills continue to advance in the playoffs, but Bills Mafia should fully expect T.J. Yeldon to do so on Saturday night.
If and when the Bills do run the ball, they will be doing so against a team which ranks 26th in the NFL (The Bills rank 24th) in Y/A against at 4.6. The Ravens also rank 27th in both 20+ A (1 per 32) and 40+ A (1 per 127) which is indicative of their blitz dependent defense. When the Ravens defense aligns with the proper gap they typically bring the ball carrier down in the backfield as the team has combined for 71 TFLs but when they miss ball carriers tend to pick up chunk yardage leaving their secondary to clean up free runners. This of course assumes the ball carrier can bypass the Ravens’ 3-4 alignment which is championed by one of the deeper DLs in all of football. On the right side is, long time Broncos DE, Derek Wolfe who typically lines up somewhere from the B to C gap and is one of the better run stuffers at the position. In the middle is the behemoth known as Brandon Williams who specializes as a NT, a dying position in the NFL that Williams still excels at. Lastly left of Williams is Calais Campbell who while listed as a DE plays more like a DT because of the blitz packages which the Ravens use. Campbell may be 34 and towards the end of his career but this exceptionally physical and athletic lineman will threaten Bills LG Ike Boettger all night.
The last group of players to cover for the Ravens is one of the most athletically gifted groups in the entire NFL, the Ravens LBs. Strength, Speed, Quickness, you name it, the 6 primary LBs on this team have it all. They are headlined by 21-year-old MLB Patrick Queen who ran a blazing 4.5 at the rookie combine in 2020. About as promising as they come Queen lead the Ravens in Tackles and TFLs and will challenge Josh Allen on any QB Draws the Bills may attempt. Next to him is either Pass Rush specialist Matt Judon or Pass Coverage specialist Tyus Bowser. Judon earned his second straight Pro Bowl selection because of his propensity to pressure the QB with his 4th straight season of 6+ sacks from the OLB position. Bowser, not nearly the pass rusher Judon is, instead has 3 INTs this season and an astounding 42.2 passer rating against (On just 15 targets). There are other players of note like ILB L.J. Fort, long time vet Pernell McPhee, or even the highly sought after Yannick Ngakoue but all you really need to know is that regardless of pass or run this unit has the ability to get into the backfield or chase down players that get outside of it.
EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Ravens’ Passing Offense
Against the Colts the Bills’ struggled at times against the pass with the most damage coming from the Colts’ TEs and the 6’4” rookie WR Michael Pittman. In isolation Phillip Rivers 300+ pass yard day implies that the secondary struggled covering their responsibilities, in reality the issue lay elsewhere. Rivers finished the 2020 season with a Time-to-Throw of just 2.52s (NFL-6) which he continued into the playoffs making it difficult for the Bills to get any pressure on the Indy QB. In fact, it was so difficult that the Bills had only 1 QB hit the entire game. This is the same team that in their last 6 games, post their Bye Week, was averaging 5.5 QB Hits per game. With the Bills running the Palms Scheme they are highly dependent on either pressure or extended Time-to-Throw in order to get into their secondary transitions, neither of those happened on Saturday which is why the Colts were so successful through the air.
Against the Ravens the Bills should be able to get more players in the vicinity of Lamar Jackson than they did Rivers. Of the 41 players with more than 128 pass attempts in 2020 Lamar ranked 38th in Time-To-Throw holding onto the ball for an average of 2.98 seconds. This was a primary reason that Lamar was sacked 29 times (NFL-13) and fumbled the ball 10 times. Obviously, the challenge here is that while teams can occasionally get pressure on Lamar, and even bring him down, the counter of his rushing ability poses a bigger threat (More on that in the rushing section). Credit is still due to Lamar and his OL who lost 2019 All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley to an ankle injury just 6 games into the season and had to flip their RT, Orlando Brown Jr., over to LT and plug and play from there. While the main threat of Lamar is undoubtedly his legs, he did finish 2020 with 2757 passing yards, 26 Passing TDs, and just 9 INTs by utilizing his receiving weapons to the best of their abilities.
At receiver the Ravens don’t have one imposing weapon, but they do have a slew of good options. First and foremost of these options is 2019 1st round draft pick Marquise “Hollywood” Brown who some tried to drop the “Bust” tag on in the middle of the season after he had a 4-game stretch where he caught just 6 balls for 55 yards and 1 TD. In opposition to that ideal try taking those 4 games out of the season and then pacing it to 16 games, when doing that Browns’ season would be 65 catches for 892 yards and 9 TDs, a solid season for any NFL player. He also answered the bell Wildcard weekend raking in 7 catches for 109 yards against a stout Tennessee secondary. Outside of him the only other receivers of note are Willie Snead, a vet who built his name in New Orleans and is a solid option at WR, Devin Duvernay, a lightning quick 2020 3rd round draft pick, and Miles Boykin, their big bodied WR who has a knack for bodying opposing defenders. But by far their most dangerous weapon in the passing game is not a WR but instead their TE, one of the best in the league, Mark Andrews. Andrews is a walking Tonka Truck that is built the same way as Dawson Knox with better hands and a more complete set of receiving skills. This is Lamar’s check down option which is a primary reason he shared the team lead in receptions (58) and finished second in receiving yards (701) meaning he should be the Bills’ biggest concern in the air on Saturday night.
For the Bills to dominate this battle they will need to get pressure on Lamar while simultaneously maintaining contain to avoid him escaping the pocket. Assuming they can accomplish this, which is a tall order, they will need to avoid letting all 3 of the Ravens primary receivers beat them deep and put a big body, say Tremaine Edmunds, on Mark Andrews. RBs have yet to prove a consistent threat for the Ravens through the air in 2020 accounting for just 15.8% of targets and 18.3% of catches but are something to monitor Saturday night as the Bills try to contain Lamar while putting a spy in the middle to avoid a big run. Buffalo must win this matchup, and should, if they have any chance of winning this game. A takeaway or two through the air wouldn’t hurt either.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Offense
The Bills had no answers against the Colts run game Wildcard weekend giving up the most rushing yards they have since the Cardinals game on November 15, 2020. Most of Buffalo’s success came when the Colts most powerful back, Jonathan Taylor, was running the ball holding him to just 3.7 Y/A but they had issues with the quicker players. Nyheim Hines only rushed the ball 6 times but accounted for 75 yards on carries of 4, 1, 29, 3, 33, and 5. This stat line should worry a Bills’ fan base that is hoping the Bills can beat a team stacked with shifty players and advance to their first AFC Championship Game since 1993.
The Ravens offense is built off an option scheme the likes of which the NFL has never seen. This offense can execute everything and anything on the ground and it all starts with QB Lamar Jackson. On option plays the QB will generally key off one defender and read which “option” said player chooses to defend. An example, a designed handoff to the right side of the line except all linemen wash down to the left and leave the defensive end unblocked. When this occurs it forces the defensive end to choose between scraping down to the RB taking the supposed handoff or to maintain contain on the QB (See example here). Lamar Jackson is an expert at reading such defenders and even in the rare event where he keeps the ball when he should hand it off, he has the athleticism to beat the defender to the edge. When handing the ball off he primarily will be handing it to Gus Edwards or J.K. Dobbins. Gus the Bus is bigger than Melvin Gordon but plays with the speed of Alvin Kamara which has allowed him to maintain a Y/A of 5.0+ in each of his first 3 seasons. J.K. Dobbins is the smaller, faster, and quicker of the two which makes for a good change of pace from Edwards. This three headed monster has created for the Ravens one of the best rushing attacks in NFL history which continues to defy the mantra that the NFL is just a passing league.
The second part of the Ravens that make them so deadly running the football is their offensive line. At the two guard spots are Bradley Bozeman (LG) and Ben Powers (RG) who each possess incredible strength which allows them control defenders at the time of the snap. Neither is exceptionally gifted at pulling or blocking in the open field but their strength couples nicely with the athleticism of the Ravens backfield. Between them is Center Patrick Mekari who took the starting Job from Matt Skura midway through the season after snapping issues forced him to the bench. Mekari is a big bruiser like his guards Bozeman and Powers which gives the Ravens just south of half a ton of Man in the middle of their line. At RT is veteran D.J. Fluker who was chosen 11th overall by the San Diego Chargers in 2013. Fluker now on his 4th team in 8 seasons is a competent RT crushing the scales at nearly 350lb but is dealing with a nagging knee injury which is something to monitor. Last is LT Orlando Brown who was laughed at for only putting up 14 on the bench press at his combine three years ago and has quieted the doubters by being named to his 2nd straight Pro Bowl. In all this is an above average OL built perfectly for a Lamar Jackson lead offense.
Buffalo will need to slow down the Ravens run game if they have any chance of winning on Saturday and this may be an odd thing to read, but the Bills defense actually lends itself to do just that. There has been discussion all week on Reddit, Twitter, and everywhere else of who will play the spy for the Bills against the Ravens and while they assuredly will occasionally spy, with Edmunds, Milano, or Poyer, the Bills’ Palms Scheme is actually proficient at slowing down mobile QBs. In this scheme the Bills will have multiple defenders zoned in the middle of the field, effectively playing a coverage spy on Lamar while also holding an advantage on the outside via their tradeoff concepts. In the event Lamar does break outside the pocket the Bills defense allows the boundary guarding CB to step forward to Lamar while the safety over the top takes the receiver. This is how the Bills defense is built and while an incredibly difficult scheme to run it is one the Bills have mastered. Don’t take this description of the Bills’ defense to say they will nullify Lamar Jackson but realize that the Bills have the tools to somewhat contain him, that is assuming they play a perfect game.
EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Ravens’ Special Teams
Throughout 2020 the Bills’ average starting field position was their own 30.7-yard line (NFL-6). Against the Colts their average starting field position was their own 15.4-yard line. The Bills would obviously go on to win this game, but field position has proved to be an indicator of success in 2020 as each team finishing within the Top-8 made the playoffs. This leads to a defense of one of the Bills most polarizing players, Andre Roberts, who has been integral to the Bills’ success in this measure and the insinuation that he was a major contributing factor in the Bills’ field position issues Wildcard weekend is not backed up by any tangible evidence. In the first half of the Colts’ game the Bills’ average starting field position was the 7.8-yard line primarily because of an exceptional Colts’ ST unit and the bend, don’t break, style of the Bills’ defense. How did each of the Colts’ first 6 drives end? Punt downed at the Bills’ 3, Magical kickoff dies on the Bills’ 15, Punt fair catch at the Bills’ 11, Kickoff returned by Roberts’ to the 12 with a 6 yard penalty bringing it back to the Bills’ 6, Colt’s Turnover on Downs at the Bills’ 4, Colts kneel before halftime. For the Bills’ this game was an aberration, and one I have confidence they will clean up against the Ravens, mainly because I have confidence in Andre Roberts.
Outside of the return game the Special Teams group for Buffalo continues to be one of the best in the NFL. Corey Bojorquez rightfully received a vote to the All-Pro team, and it could be argued he deserved more. Bojo punted 4 times Wildcard Weekend averaging 47.0 Y/P with a Net Y/P of 43.5. These numbers would have been significantly higher had he not purposely drilled in I20 punt which only required a 29-yard kick. At kicker is another player who arguably deserved some All-Pro consideration, rookie Tyler Bass. This kid has been on complete fire the past 10 weeks going 42/43 on XPs and 18/19 on FGs with his only miss coming from 61 yards out. I was personally skeptical on Bass coming into the season, but my goodness, this kid is a stud. There is one more player on the Bills’ Special Teams that got an All-Pro vote, Tyler Matakevich. A guru at the position the man nicknamed “Dirty Red” is around the ball carrier on every kick and tossing people around on every return. Bills’ fans know more than most that Special Teams players can have a huge impact on a team and the Bills’ have a ton of great ones.
The Ravens also have one of the better Special Teams units in the NFL. For most of the season Devin Duvernay handled KR while James Proche took care of PR however, in recent weeks Duvernay has taken control of both. Averaging 11.5 Y/PR and 27.5 Y/KR, with a 93-yard return for a TD, Duvernay is a dynamic rookie with open field speed that few can match. Just like the Colts game this will likely effect the Bills’ short kick strategy meaning a lot of touchbacks when the Bills kick off. Punting for the Ravens is the 38-year old veteran Sam Koch who the Ravens have under contract until he is 40. Koch had his lowest Y/P (44.5) in a decade but finished 8th in the NFL with a Net Y/P of 42.8, a difference of just 1.7. Koch rarely allows players to return the ball and when they do, they are averaging just 4.8 Y/R. Last is the best to ever do it, Kicker Justin Tucker. Tucker has a 90.7 FG% in the regular season throughout his career with a career long of 61. As automatic as they come if you see Tucker on the field there is basically no tradition Bills’ fans can do that would make him miss.
EDGE: Bills 👏
Why We Will Lose
The Ravens have steadily improved the entire season and are peaking at the perfect time. Improving their odds of advancing is that the Ravens’ strengths matchup well against the Bills’ weaknesses. On defense the Ravens excel against the pass and have been able to put pressure on every QB they have played in 2020. That pressure should be extra concerning for a Bills’ team that has seen their star QB struggle at holding onto the football, now realize that the Ravens had a combined 25 forced fumbles in the regular season and start panicking. In reality the Ravens only weakness on defense is against the run which is something that they shouldn’t particularly care about when playing a Bills team who has struggled running the ball and should find a more difficult go of things after losing their RB2.
On offense the Ravens continue to be one of the best running teams in history. Whether it be Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, or Lamar Jackson doesn’t matter because whoever has the ball will be able to effectively move it on the ground. This means consistent yardage with the occasional big run sprinkled in. That continuous success ultimately will keep the ball out of the hands of Buffalo’s offense while putting up points for Baltimore which is a typical strategy against a Bills team that has struggled against the run in 2020. Making matters worse is the Bills’ can’t just bail out to stop the run because if they did attempt this Lamar Jackson, the 2019 MVP, has shown the ability to make big plays through the air and will do so against this Bills’ team. The Ravens offense is built to beat a team like Buffalo, as is their defense, which is a recipe for a Baltimore victory.
Why We Will Win
The 2019 Bills lost to the Ravens 24-17. The 2020 Bills are a significantly improved version of that team with an MVP caliber QB. The Bills offense had no answer for the Ravens pressure last season which is a primary reason they went out and got a receiver that could specifically help with handling that scheme. That receiver is your first team All-Pro WR, Stefon Diggs, who has dominated every single player that has tried to guard him this season. You factor him in with Buffalo’s other 3 options at the position and the Bills suddenly have the ability to put up points against a Ravens’ defense that is one of the best in the NFL.
On defense the Bills may not have had the same success in 2020 that they did in 2019 but they have continually improved all season long. This game comes down to the Bills’ ability to contain Lamar Jackson and a healthy Matt Milano makes that slightly easier. Dark horse candidate to have big game is A.J. Epenesa who the Bills coaching staff has surely coached up to not do to much and instead do his 1/11th. And that is just what every single Bills’ player must do, their 1/11th, do that and you won’t stop Lamar Jackson, but you can reduce the damage he inflicts. If Buffalo accomplishes that your Bills will be heading to their first AFC Championship game in nearly 30 years.
Prediction: Bills 27 – Ravens 24
This is going to be a close game whichever way you slice it. On paper the Ravens seem to have the matchups but in reality, the Bills seem to have the ability to win them. Because this will be so close this game likely comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes, inclusive of turnovers. With the way the Bills are playing right now you must trust Josh Allen more than Lamar Jackson to hold onto the ball. At the end of the night though this will be a battle of heavyweights with the last one standing being one game away from Super Bowl Sunday.

A lot of us are having some major sports PTSD right now. Two years in a row, a team that beat the shit out of the Packers in the regular season is the Packers' opponent in the NFC Championship Game. Many wonder if history will repeat itself, and here are a few reasons why I think it won't.
#1: The 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not the 2019 San Francisco 49ers
Last year's 49ers were the best team in the league. I know they lost the Super Bowl, but they controlled that game for the majority of its duration, and they easily could have won if a few plays went differently (3rd and 15 being the most obvious). They had the best defense in the league (I know the Patriots were technically #1 last year but they played absolutely nobody and looked worse as the season progressed), and they had an incredibly efficient offense under Shanahan. That defensive line in particular is in my opinion an all-time great unit. It had: Nick Bosa, the defensive rookie of the year; DeForest Buckner, who is 1st-team All-Pro this year and earned 2nd-team All-Pro last year; Arik Armstead, who had 10 sacks over the season; and D.J. Jones, the least-decorated of the group, but a very solid piece who embarrassed Corey Linsley (the best center in football this year) on multiple snaps. That's just in insane group, and they were able to handily beat the Packers' O-Line by just rushing four. The defense had great linebackers behind that line, and one of the best secondaries in the NFL behind the linebackers. They were stacked.
The 2019 49ers were also just 7 points away combined from going 16-0. They lost by a field goal in OT to Seattle in a back-and-forth game, by a field goal on the road at the AFC 1 seed Ravens, and then by 1 point to the Falcons at home (I'm not counting the last fumble TD, which was borne out of a desperation play). 7 points away from being undefeated. And they were banged up vs the Falcons, too. The 2019 49ers were never not in control of a game they played. They were always competitive, even against elite competition. They won a few close games, but with the exception of their December games vs New Orleans and LA, ESPN's win probability meter never had them at significant odds to lose any of these. They were the best team in the league.
The 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not the best team in the league. They're 11-5 and they were swept by the Saints in blowout fashion and lost close games to the Bears, Chiefs, and Rams. They also struggled in several games which they ultimately won: they had a comeback vs the Chargers and were down by 17 at multiple points in their first game at Atlanta. Where the '19 49ers essentially played well against everyone on the schedule, the Buccaneers have struggled down the stretch. They ended up 11-5, but they very easily could be a 10-6 or even 9-7 team. They've shown vulnerability in multiple games, and a few of their losses were pretty ugly.
This brings me to my next point:
#2: Green Bay is a lot better than teams that have had success vs the Buccaneers this year
Green Bay got whooped by Tampa in week 6, but it remains the lone blowout loss the Packers have suffered in 2020. The Packers' other two losses this year were at Indianapolis and at home vs Minnesota. Both were very winnable games, and came down to one score. Given the broader context of the season, the Tampa game seems like an outlier more than anything. And last year, Green Bay suffered two blowout losses (prior to the third in the playoffs): at SF and at LAC.
To show how much of an outlier the Tampa game was, here's a DVOA stats comparison. I personally find DVOA a bit flawed in that it doesn't really account for how much teams can improve over the course of a season, but it's popular, so here:
Counting this week, Green Bay played 6 of the top 10 defenses by DVOA in the NFL this year, over 7 games. At New Orleans (#2), vs LAR (#4), at TB (#5), at SF (#6), at IND (#7), and then home and away vs Chicago (#8).
Their stats vs Tampa were: 10 points, 201 yards, 3.3 yards per play. Pretty ugly
Their stats in the other 6 games were, on average: 35 points, 389 yards, 6.5 yards per play. !!!
Minus the Tampa game, Green Bay has actually performed better than their season averages against top ten defenses. And it's not like Tampa was the best of the bunch! They were #5 and this^ includes two games against teams that ranked higher than them.
Green Bay (the #1 offense by DVOA) can compete against anybody. I think Tampa caught them on an off day, on the road, in the sun. And don't forget that Green Bay was up by 10 before the pick six and subsequent tipped-int. The Packers were wrecking the Buccaneers' gameplan until they started blitzing their middle linebackers off the edge and Rodgers got rattled and it was downhill from there. I don't think that'll happen twice, and the Packers' record against quality opponents reflects that.
But the Buccaneers have struggled against opponents of lesser quality than Green Bay. In some cases, far lesser quality. Here are a few statlines they've allowed:
vs KC (#2 offense by DVOA): 27 points, 543 yards, 7.5 yards per play
vs LAR (#10 offense by DVOA): 27 points, 413 yards, 5.8 yards per play
vs Carolina (#17 offense by DVOA): 17 points, 427 yards, 6.0 yards per play (they forced 4 turnovers this game, but it goes without saying that GB can't turn the ball over vs Tampa and expect to win)
2 games vs Falcons (#21 offense by DVOA): 27 points, 377 yards per game, 5.6 yards per play
3 games vs Saints (#7 offense by DVOA): 31 points per game, 328 yards per game, 4.9 yards per play
at WFT (#32 offense by DVOA, admittedly with Heinicke in this game): 23 points, 375 yards, 5.4 yards per play
vs LAC (#15 offense by DVOA): 31 points, 324 yards, 6.5 yards per play
Teams do move the ball against this defense. In some cases, they do it quite a lot. I don't know that it'll be realistic for Green Bay to hang 543 yards on Tampa, but hey, someone did it this year. And Green Bay just hung 484 on a Rams defense that hadn't allowed more than 390 all year.
The Rams and Falcons games really stick out to me, in particular. Tampa gave up 413 yards to the same Rams offense Green Bay held to 244 (admittedly without Kupp), and they gave up 377 on average in their two games against a Falcons team GB held to 327. These aren't crazy talented offenses (like GB is) and yet they put up solid numbers against the Buccaneers. If Green Bay has done their homework, and figured out an answer to Tampa's blitzing, I don't see any reason why they can't have the kind of success against the Buccaneers these teams did.
​
But what about the defense?
Okay, so remember what I said about DVOA? I think it's unfair to units that improve down the stretch of the season, and I think Green Bay's defense is definitely one of those units. Football Outsiders has GB ranked #17 on defense and I think that's kind of bullshit. The #17 defense doesn't hold Tennessee (#4 offense) to 14 points. The #17 defense doesn't allow an average of 287 yards, 16 points, and 4.8 yards per play down the stretch to three straight playoff teams in a row in Tennessee, Chicago, and LA (#4, #25, and #10 ranked offenses, respectively).
I'm gonna go with EPA on this one. EPA has Green Bay ranked #5 on defense since week 9 and I think that's reflective of how well this team has played down the stretch. Tampa's defense is #12 by this metric since week 9, by the way.
Anyway, #3: Green Bay actually has a defense to match Tampa's, and even exceed it depending on where you look
Green Bay's defense is really good this year. They were pretty average early in the season, but they've turned into an elite unit down the stretch. They've given up more than 400 yards once all year at Indianapolis, which is more than the Buccaneers can say, and they've performed similarly and better in cases against common opponents.
I think GB has the best secondary in football right now. Jaire is PFF's #1 CB, and Amos and Savage are both in its top 10 for safety rankings. King is serviceable, and guys like Sullivan and Redmond get the job done when called upon.
Z's been in PFF's top 15 edge rushers all year, and Gary made headlines this week because he's posted PFF grades above 90 against Tennessee and Chicago recently, and he posted above 80 against the Rams. That puts him among the best in the league right now. Clark just had a sack and a half against the Rams this week, and Preston's looked good recently, with some pressures and a few batted balls. This defensive front is scary. This defense is scary.
That brings me to my last point.
#4: It's different this time around.
This time around, it's at home. This time around, Green Bay's got a full season of Tampa's defense on tape. They can see how teams have racked up yards against them, and they can plan for the blitz looks Tampa hurled at them out of nowhere in week 6.
This time, it'll be below freezing outside as a Florida team travels a thousand miles north to play in the snow for the first time in many of their players' careers. They're gonna be tested by cold wind and sleet, and it'll be loud, too. There are gonna be thousands of fans in attendance, cheering the Packers on.
Tampa Bay is damn good. Tom Brady is damn good. His receivers are damn good. His running back is damn good. His offensive line (increasingly injured as it may be) is damn good. But Green Bay's offense is better.
Tampa Bay's defense is really good. But I think Green Bay's is better. If any secondary can match up against Godwin/Evans/Brown, it's Amos/Savage/Jaire. If any front four can get pressure on Brady, it's Z/Clark/Preston/Gary.
I think Green Bay's got this. I sure hope they do.

With the announcements of WrestleManias 37, 38, and 39, some users were critical of WWE selecting the same venues every year. Every WrestleMania since 23, with the exception of three in Orlando (two at the Citrus Bowl/Camping World Stadium and one at the Performance Center due to COVID-19), has been held at an NFL stadium. As something of an NFL stadium expert, I decided to examine each NFL stadium's likelihood of hosting a future WrestleMania. Please note that some stadiums are located just outside of the city limits listed, but I listed the major city most associated with it (so for instance, while AT&T Stadium is technically in Arlington, it hosts the Dallas Cowboys, so I listed Arlington.) I'm also giving WWE a significant benefit of the doubt and assuming they'd be interested in hosting a Mania outside of their usual go-tos.
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

• Stadium Profile: A $1.9 billion stadium opened in 2020 to house the newly-moved Las Vegas Raiders. Starting in 2021, it will host the Pro Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, and the Pac-12 Championship Game. As of yet, it has not hosted any fans. It has a capacity of 65,000.
• City Profile: Las Vegas is the 28th biggest metro area in the US. Las Vegas previously hosted WrestleMania IX in a temporary arena built at Caesars Palace, and the recently-built T-Mobile Arena hosted 2016 Money in the Bank and 2018 Elimination Chamber.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Very high. I'm honestly surprised it didn't host one of the next three Manias given its attractive location and massive new stadium. I suspect it will host one very soon in the future.

Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

• Stadium Profile: Arrowhead is the third-oldest stadium in the NFL, having been built in 1972. It had a renovation completed in 2010 and seats 76,416. It's known for its incredibly-loud fans, as they currently hold the world record for loudest crowd at 142.2 decibels.
• City Profile: Kansas City is the 31st biggest metro area in the US. Kansas City has hosted four PPVs, most notably 1999 Over the Edge with the death of Owen Hart and most recently 2010 Money in the Bank.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. Arrowhead's age and Kansas City being a smaller market (and not an attractive vacation destination) mean that Missouri won't be hosting WrestleMania any time soon.

AT&T Stadium, Dallas, TX

• Stadium Profile: "Jerryworld", a pioneer in the billion-dollar stadium craze, opened in 2009 with a listed capacity of 80,000, though it can hold up to 100,000 for special events like WrestleMania and the Super Bowl, which it hosted in 2011. It also hosts the annual Cotton Bowl game.
• City Profile: Dallas is the 4th largest metro area in the US. Dallas hosted WrestleMania 32 at AT&T Stadium and most recently hosted 2017 Great Balls of Fire.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Confirmed, as it will host WrestleMania 38 next year. I suspect this will not be the last.

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC

• Stadium Profile: A largely no-frills stadium, Bank of America Stadium was built in 1996 and has a seating capacity of 75,523. In addition to hosting the Charlotte Panthers, it will host Charlotte FC starting in 2022 and has hosted an NCAA bowl game since 2002 and the ACC Championship Game most years since 2010. Though it was renovated in 2017 (and soccer renovations are currently underway), Panthers ownership has expressed a desire for a new stadium.
• City Profile: Charlotte is the 22nd biggest metro area in the US. Nearby Charlotte Coliseum hosted 2019 Clash of Champions, its first PPV in 13 years, and nearby Greensboro has been considered one of wrestling's hotbeds.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Low. If memory serves, Charlotte was floated as a potential Mania site, but unless they get a new stadium I don't see this nearly as likely as more attractive Southeast locations like Atlanta or Florida.

Bills Stadium, Buffalo, NY

• Stadium Profile: The NFL's fourth-oldest stadium, the former Ralph Wilson Stadium houses 71,608. It was the site of the first NHL Winter Classic in 2008 as the Buffalo Sabres hosted the Pittsburgh Penguins.
• City Profile: Buffalo is the 49th biggest metro area in the US. The last PPV Buffalo hosted was 2013 Battleground.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. With many bigger cities nearby and an aging stadium, Buffalo will never host a WrestleMania. Sorry, Bills Mafia.

Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO

• Stadium Profile: Replacing the historic-but-aging Mile High Stadium in 2001, Empower Field seats 76,125. Notably, 84,000 were in attendance on the last night of the 2008 Democratic National Convention for Barack Obama's acceptance speech.
• City Profile: Denver is the 19th biggest metro area in the US. The nearby Pepsi Center has only hosted one PPV - 2003 Vengeance.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. Denver's high altitude doesn't do it any favors, but WWE has been hesitant to run Denver in the past and I suspect with shinier stadiums out West, it will not do so here.

FedExField, Washington, DC (stadium located in Landover, MD)

• Stadium Profile: Once the NFL's largest stadium, FedExField opened in 1997 and currently has a capacity of 82,000. Many upper-level seats were blockaded off in 2011. Even in 2007, Sports Illustrated rated it fourth-lowest in "NFL Fan Value Experience".
• City Profile: Washington is the 6th biggest metro area in the US. Capital One Arena hosted 2005 SummerSlam, 2009 Survivor Series, and most recently 2016 Battleground, but also hosted the inaugural episode of AEW Dynamite.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. A DC 'Mania might sound attractive, but FedExField's unpopularity will keep it off WWE's list. Nationals Park could be an option if WWE chooses to downsize.

FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH

• Stadium Profile: Sitting on Lake Erie's shore, the "Factory of Sadness" opened in 1999 to host the second incarnation of the Cleveland Browns. It has a capacity of 67,431.
• City Profile: Cleveland is the 34th biggest metro area in the US. It hosted Fastlane in both 2016 and 2019 and also hosted SummerSlam in 1996.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. I'm cold just thinking about late March in Cleveland.

Ford Field, Detroit, MI

• Stadium Profile: Built in 2002 as a downtown replacement to the Pontiac Silverdome, Ford Field seats 65,000. It's hosted a bowl game every year since its opening and also hosted Super Bowl XL.
• City Profile: Detroit is the 14th biggest metro area in the US. The Pontiac Silverdome was the site of perhaps the most famous WrestleMania (III), and Ford Field hosted WrestleMania 23 twenty years later. Detroit has also hosted several PPVs, most recently 2017 Hell in a Cell.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Low. Though WWE has run WrestleMania in Detroit twice in the past, that it has not done so in nearly 20 years seems to indicate it's looking at newer stadiums and more attractive locations.

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

• Stadium Profile: Wedged between Boston and Providence, Gillette Stadium was built in 2002 as a replacement to the aging Foxboro Stadium. It seats 65,878 and hosts the New England Patriots as well as the MLS's New England Revolution.
• City Profile: Boston is the 11th largest metro area in the US. The FleetCenter, now TD Garden, hosted WrestleMania XIV and has hosted several other Big 4 PPVs. It last hosted 2017 Clash of Champions.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. An indoor Boston stadium might be more attractive, but the cold weather serves as a major detriment, especially with NYC nearby.

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL

• Stadium Profile: Opened in 1987, the stadium with 11 different names seats 65,326. It's home to the Miami Dolphins, University of Miami football team, and the Orange Bowl game and formerly housed the Florida Marlins baseball team. Amid deterioration, it underwent a massive overhaul in 2015.
• City Profile: Miami has hosted 6 Super Bowls, 5 College Football National Championships, and WrestleMania XXVIII with Miami native The Rock headlining. However, its last PPV was 2013 Hell in a Cell.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Medium. The new stadium overhaul has made it an attractive location for other high-profile events, but WWE seems to have other Florida venues in mind. Perhaps they'll be back to Miami in the coming years.

Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA

• Stadium Profile: Opened in 2001 along with next-door PNC Park as a replacement to Three Rivers Stadium, Heinz Field seats 68,400. Its open south end has made it one of the toughest places for kickers. It's also hosted two NHL games: the 2011 Winter Classic and 2017 Stadium Series.
• City Profile: Pittsburgh is the 27th largest metro area in the US. It was home to perhaps the most famous match in WWE history, Undertaker vs. Mankind's Hell in a Cell match in 1998. It also hosted the 2014 Royal Rumble and most recently 2018 Extreme Rules.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. As much as I'd love to see a WrestleMania in my home city of Pittsburgh, it's not exactly the biggest destination city in the world, and WWE seems to have shunned Pittsburgh from high-profile events after several negative crowd responses.

Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

• Stadium Profile: The NFL's second-oldest stadium, Lambeau Field - named after Packer great Curly Lambeau - opened in 1957. Though single-bowled for most of its life, it added an upper deck at the south endzone in 2013. Most of its 81,441 seats are bleachers.
• City Profile: Green Bay is the 158th biggest metro area in the US. It has never hosted a PPV, though Milwaukee has hosted several, most recently 2017 Fastlane.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. Maybe negative.

Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

• Stadium Profile: Home to the San Francisco 49ers (though San Francisco is about an hour drive north), Levi's Stadium opened in 2014 and holds 68,500. Its large glass press box has led to criticism for making the stadium too bright and hot during the daytime. Levi's hosted Super Bowl 50, WrestleMania 31, and the 2015 NHL Stadium Series.
• City Profile: San Francisco is the 12th biggest metro area in the US, and San Jose is the 35th biggest metro area in the US. San Francisco has never hosted a PPV (likely to change in the coming years with the opening of the Chase Center). San Jose hosted the 1998 Royal Rumble, 2001 SummerSlam, and most recently 2018 TLC.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Very low. With the opening of SoFi Stadium ensuring multiple WrestleManias in California in the coming decades, accompanied with poor reception to the stadium and to The Undertaker having to make a daytime entrance, WWE probably won't be back to Levi's.

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

• Stadium Profile: Opened in 2003, "The Linc" sits in Philadelphia's famed Philadelphia Sports Complex in the same location as classic venues Veterans Stadium and The Spectrum. Lincoln Financial Field seats 69,796, and in addition to the Philadelphia Eagles and Temple Owls is the usual host of the Army-Navy Game.
• City Profile: Philadelphia is the 8th biggest metro area in the US. Perhaps wrestling's most notorious crowd thanks in part to it being the home of ECW, Philadelphia has hosted a number of high-profile events over the years including WrestleMania XV, the 2015 and 2018 Royal Rumbles, and most recently 2019 Extreme Rules.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Low to medium. Philadelphia has been floated as a WrestleMania city before, and though it's not the best climate in early spring, you'd have to imagine a WrestleMania crowd in a normally-raucous city would be a sight (and sound) to behold.

Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

• Stadium Profile: Indy sure does love its indoor stadiums. After the Colts moved into the Hoosier Dome (later RCA Dome) in 1984, they opened the retractable-roof Lucas Oil in 2008 with a capacity of 67,000. It's also the host of the Big Ten Championship Game, Super Bowl XLVI, and given Indy's status as a college basketball hub, will host at minimum two Final Fours in the future (2021 and 2026).
• City Profile: Indianapolis is the 33rd biggest metro area in the US. The Hoosier Dome hosted WrestleMania VIII in 1992 and has since hosted a SummerSlam, a Survivor Series, and most recently 2016 Clash of Champions. It's also known to wrestling fans as the city where The Shield was formed in 2012 and where they broke up in 2014.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Low. While a beautiful stadium, Lucas Oil hasn't brought in as many events as Indianapolis surely hoped, in part due to its small market.

Lumen Field, Seattle, WA

• Stadium Profile: Built in 2002 as a replacement to the literally-crumbling Kingdome, the former Qwest and CenturyLink Field holds a nice 69,000. Known for its triangular end zone stand and loud fans known as the "12th Man", it houses the Seattle Seahawks and Seattle Sounders.
• City Profile: Seattle is the 15th largest metro area in the US. Next-door Safeco Field, home to the Mariners, hosted WrestleMania XIX in 2003, and KeyArena has only hosted two PPVs (most recently 2011 Over the Limit), though a major overhaul to the venue will likely change this once WWE resumes touring.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Very low. Safeco Field was WWE's venue of choice in 2003, and while it could be an attractive Rumble target in the coming years, I suspect Lumen won't be on their list.

M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD

• Stadium Profile: Home to the Baltimore Ravens, it opened in 1998 with a capacity of 71,008. Its most notable feature is its jumbotrons sandwiched between its upper and lower bowls. It's also hosted several Army-Navy games.
• City Profile: Baltimore is the 21st largest metro area in the US. Baltimore has hosted several PPVs, most recently 2017 Extreme Rules.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. Though Royal Farms Arena is a common stop on WWE's touring schedule, M&T Bank is surely way low on the list of potential WrestleMania stadiums as it hasn't even been seriously considered in years past.

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

• Stadium Profile: Jokingly nicknamed "Megatron" due to its distinctly-shaped exterior and retractable roof, Mercedes-Benz Stadium opened in 2017 at a cost of $1.6 billion and seats 71,000. It hosts the Falcons, Atlanta United, the Peach Bowl, Super Bowl LII, and will surely host more Super Bowls and NCAA championships (both football and basketball).
• City Profile: Atlanta is the 9th biggest metro area in the US and is also home to the world's busiest airport. Atlanta was the host of the 1996 Summer Olympics. The now-demolished Georgia Dome hosted WrestleMania XXVII, and Phillips Arena most recently hosted 2015 Survivor Series.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Extremely high. The only thing I see as a detraction is WWE being petty about TNT getting back in the wrestling business. Otherwise, this massive, futuristic stadium would be a perfect WrestleMania host.

Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA

• Stadium Profile: One of the most famous stadiums in sports, the Superdome (brother) opened in 1975, though it is currently undergoing a massive renovation. It seats 73,208 and has hosted seven Super Bowls (scheduled for #8 in 2025), two WrestleManias, five Final Fours, and is the annual home of the Sugar Bowl.
• City Profile: New Orleans is the 45th biggest metro area in the US, though it's become a cultural hub. WrestleMania 34 was the last PPV hosted in the city.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: High. WWE has hosted here twice before, and a massive renovation will continue to make it an attractive target.

MetLife Stadium, New York, NY (located in East Rutherford, NJ)

• Stadium Profile: Located across the river from the heart of New York City, MetLife Stadium opened in 2010 as home of both the Giants and Jets and seats 82,500. Its price tag of $1.6 billion made it at the time the most expensive stadium in the US. It's hosted two WrestleManias (29 and 35) and is the only open-air northern city to host the Super Bowl.
• City Profile: What else is there to say about New York? It's the largest metro area by far, it's a massive cultural hub, and in wrestling context has hosted many of wrestling's most memorable events including six WrestleManias.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Medium to high. NYC always has to be on the list when hosting large events, and given WWE has been to MetLife twice, you'd have to think they're willing to go again. The massive downside is the intense difficulty some fans had with leaving the stadium, although that's something that can be remedied with a little better planning.

Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN

• Stadium Profile: Opened in 1999 to house the newly-christened Tennessee Titans, Nissan Stadium seats 69,143 and is also host to the annual Music City Bowl. It will be the centerpiece of a Nashville street circuit coming to the IndyCar calendar in 2021.
• City Profile: Nashville is the 36th largest metro area in the US. Nashville last hosted 2014 Night of Champions, although a house show under the name "Smackville" was aired on the WWE Network in 2019.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Very low. I don't want to say zero, but this is as close to zero as it gets. Memphis is by far the more popular wrestling destination in the state, but it doesn't have a stadium capable of hosting a modern 'Mania.

NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

• Stadium Profile: Built in 2002 to house the expansion Houston Texans, the Astrodome's spiritual successor houses 72,220. It's hosted two Super Bowls, two Final Fours, and is also on the schedule to host another Final Four and a College Football National Championship. NRG, then Reliant Stadium, hosted WrestleMania XXV.
• City Profile: Houston is the 5th largest metro area in the US. In addition to XXV, the Astrodome - despite no longer having any tenants - hosted WrestleMania X-Seven, often regarded as the best WrestleMania (and possibly the best WWE PPV ever). Houston has hosted numerous PPVs, including the 2020 Royal Rumble at Minute Maid Park and several other Big 4s.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Low. Though the Toyota Center is a common PPV host, Dallas seems to be the preferred destination in the state for WrestleMania. Still, NRG holds its weight, and perhaps it'll get another WrestleMania down the line.

Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH

• Stadium Profile: Like many cookie-cutters of the 70s, Riverfront Stadium was replaced by two stadiums; Paul Brown, opened in 2000, was the first, and it seats 65,515. An odd quirk in the contract with the city states that Cincinnati must pay for anything that 10 other NFL stadiums have, including holographic replays.
• City Profile: Cincinnati is the 30th biggest metro area in the US. As it is not home to an NBA or NHL team, the outdated US Bank Arena hasn't hosted much for WWE, only 2006 Cyber Sunday and 2018 Starrcade (a rebranded house show).
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None. As highly of Moxley speaks of it, Cincinnati isn't a wrestling hub by any stretch, nor is it a big enough market to justify a high-profile event.

Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

• Stadium Profile: Opened in 1998, this stadium seats 65,890 and has been home to the Outback Bowl, two Super Bowls (it'll host its third later this month), and the 2017 College Football National Championship. Its most prominent feature is a giant pirate ship that fires its cannons when the home Buccaneers score.
• City Profile: Tampa is the 18th largest metro area in the US. It hosted a few Big 4s decades ago, but prior to COVID last hosted 2014 Battleground. Sister city St. Petersburg will end up hosting several upcoming PPVs as it is the second home of the WWE Thunderdome.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Confirmed, as it will host WrestleMania later this year as a make-good for the Mania scrapped last year due to COVID-19. I'll admit that I was surprised to see Tampa on the schedule, and I can't imagine it'll come back after this year.

SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA

• Stadium Profile: LA residents, I feel bad that you're on the hook for the $5 billion price tag of this megaplex that houses the Rams and Chargers. Opened last fall, it seats 70,420 on game day but can be expanded to over 100,000. It will also be the epicenter of the 2028 Summer Olympics and will likely be a major part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. It also has next year's Super Bowl and 2023's College Football National Championship on its radar. Incidentally, it has yet to host fans.
• City Profile: Los Angeles is the 2nd biggest metro area in the US. It's been home to numerous Big 4s including 3 WrestleManias (a fourth if you count nearby Anaheim) and was the regular host of SummerSlam for years.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Confirmed, as it is the host of WrestleMania 39 (pushed back from 37, presumably to allow California ample time to recover from COVID-19). It was intentionally over-built for high-profile events like WrestleMania, and I'm confident they will be back for many more.

Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

• Stadium Profile: One of the classic sports venues, Soldier Field was built in 1924 but didn't host the Bears until 1971. A National Historic Landmark until 2002, it was delisted to allow the seating bowl to be gutted and rebuilt. Its signature Roman columns now reside at the stadium's gate.
• City Profile: Chicago is the 3rd biggest metro area in the US. It's a popular site of Big 4s, but it's hosted just two WrestleManias, both in arenas (2 and 22). It most recently hosted 2019 Survivor Series. Most WWE shows are held not in the United Center but instead at the Allstate Arena in nearby Rosemont.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Very low. I have to say I'm surprised Chicago's not hosted WrestleMania in so long given how raucous its crowds are and given Chicago's giant market. However, Soldier Field is not the most advanced stadium in the world, and WWE seems to like warmer buildings.

State Farm Stadium, Phoenix, AZ

• Stadium Profile: At the time of its opening in 2006, State Farm was perhaps the highest-tech stadium ever built. It notably features not just a retractable roof but a retractable field, allowing its Bermuda grass to get some sunlight. It's also hosted a Super Bowl, 3 College Football National Championships, and a Final Four, with another Super Bowl and Final Four coming in the next few years.
• City Profile: Phoenix is the 10th biggest metro area in the US. Phoenix's first PPV was 2003 SummerSlam and it's hosted many since, including WrestleMania XXVI and most recently the 2019 Royal Rumble at Chase Field.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Low. You'd think if WWE were headed back to Glendale, it would've done so by now. Once the most high-tech stadium in America, its successes have since been duplicated by countless others.

TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL

• Stadium Profile: Do I really have to do this one? Jacksonville Municipal Stadium was built in the 1930s, but it was overhauled in 1995 to welcome the expansion Jacksonville Jaguars, who are owned by the Khan family - the same family that owns AEW. It's also hosted Super Bowl XXXIX.
• City Profile: Jacksonville is the 40th biggest metro area in the US. Without a NBA or NHL team, it's hosted just one PPV: 2007 One Night Stand.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: None, as long as AEW is around.

US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

• Stadium Profile: Built in 2016 as a replacement to the Metrodome and seating 66,655, US Bank's distinct exterior was built to resemble a viking ship. In its short life so far, it's already hosted a Super Bowl and a Final Four.
• City Profile: Minneapolis is the 16th biggest metro area in the US. Minneapolis hosted 1999 SummerSlam andlast hosted 2019 TLC. Surprisingly, the Metrodome never hosted WrestleMania.
• Likelihood of hosting WrestleMania: Medium to high. US Bank Stadium is a technological marvel, but Minneapolis is far from the most attractive location.

About this Post

Leading up to the Super Bowl, we often hear the same storylines repeated. The past two years I decided to put my sports research into high gear and dig up some of the unusual patterns of Super Bowls past and see how they may correlate to the upcoming Super Bowl. (The links to those posts are below.)
LIV Post
LIII Post
LII Post
This year I have not been able to dig up quite as many patterns and strange storylines outside of the mainstream, but I am here to share what I have been able to find. I may make reference to some of the more commonly discussed storylines, but I strive to keep things different and new. I hope you enjoy!

Time & Place

Tampa Bay

Super Bowl LV is the 5th Super Bowl held in Tampa, FL (4th most in any city) and the 17th in Florida (most Super Bowls in any state). This is the third time the Super Bowl will be held in Raymond James Stadium.

• AFC/AFL teams are 3-1 in Tampa
• The first Super Bowl in Tampa (XVIII) was designated as an AFC home game. Since, all have been designated home for NFC teams (including LV)
• Designated Home teams are 2-2
• The first 2 Tampa Super Bowls saw the AFC teams win the coin toss, while the NFC teams have won the last 2
• The first Super Bowl in Tampa (XVIII) has the coin toss winner win the game. Since, all coin toss winners have lost the game
• The first 3 coin toss winners elected to receive the opening kickoff, the most recent (Cardinals in XLIII) elected to defer
• Official weather has been listed as either partly cloudy or mostly cloudy for every Tampa Super Bowl
• Teams in white jerseys (all away teams before this year) are 2-2, teams in red jerseys are 0-1

February 7th

The two prior Super Bowls on February 7th were:

• Super Bowl XLIV (2010) in Miami Saints defeat Colts 31-17
• Super Bowl 50 (2016) in Santa Clara Broncos defeat Panthers 24-10

February 7 seems to favor the NFC East (and maybe slightly factor the AFC West). 2 of the last 3 NFC South Super Bowl appearances were on February 7th. 1 of the last 2 AFC West appearances. All have been aired by CBS.

Eastern Time Zone

In the previous 23 Super Bowls played in the Eastern Time Zone, the NFL/NFC teams have won 10, and the AFL/AFC teams have won 13.
The Chiefs are 1-0 in Super Bowls in the Eastern Time Zone (Last year vs SF in Miami)
The Buccaneers have not played a Super Bowl in the Eastern Time Zone (Tom Brady is 2-1 in ET Super Bowls)

Designated Home Team

This year is unlike any other in history, with a team hosting the Super Bowl at its home stadium. The NFL has told the team it cannot use its cannons to celebrate touchdowns as the team normally does at home games, but this feat is still noteworthy. Super Bowl XIV in 1980 was held at the Rose Bowl and the Los Angeles Rams lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the nearby Rose Bowl was not the home stadium for the Rams. Similarly, Super Bowl XIX in 1985 was held at Stanford Stadium and the San Francisco 49ers beat the Miami Dolphins, but Candlestick Park was the home stadium for the 49ers.
It is also worth noting that Super Bowl LV was initially scheduled to be played in the new SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA, while Raymond James Stadium was scheduled for Super Bowl LVI. This makes the home-field advantage a little bit weirder, as the first home Super Bowl wasn't even supposed to happen this year.
The designated home team in Super Bowls alternates between AFC and NFC. In odd numbered Super Bowls (like LV [55]), the NFC is designated home. The designated home teams have an all-time record of 22-32. In the last 9 Super Bowls, the designated away teams are 7-2. In the last 14, designated away teams are 11-3. (Green Bay, Denver, and Kansas City being the only teams to win as designated home)
Kansas City was the designated away team in the first Super Bowl. They lost to Green Bay. In Super Bowls IV and LIV, the Chiefs won as the designated home team. In Super Bowl LV, they return to being the away team.
Tampa Bay was the designated home team in Super Bowl XXXVII when then defeated the Oakland Raiders.
Based on home designation, both teams' histories signify a favorable outcome for the Buccaneers

Patterns & History

This is the first ever Super Bowl to feature the two quarterbacks who won the previous two Super Bowls

Teams in Super Bowls

The Chiefs are 2-1 in Super Bowl history (SBs I, IV & LIV) In both of Kansas City's previous Super Bowls, the following are true:

• NFC team won the opening coin toss
• Designated home team won the game
• KC wore white pants & red helmet [they won both when wearing a red jersey]
• Team wearing white jersey has lost

The Buccaneers are 1-0 in Super Bowl history (SB XXXVII) Relevant notes from Tampa Bay's previous Super Bowl:

• Both designated home
• Played in the third longest Super Bowl (3hrs, 50mins)
• Tampa won the coin toss and elected to receive

Tampa Bay is one of four franchises with an undefeated Super Bowl record, and is seeking to become only the second to be undefeated with more than one win:

• Baltimore Ravens -- 2-0
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 1-0
• New York Jets -- 1-0
• New Orleans Saints 1-0

Uniform Success

As designated Home team, the Buccaneers elected to wear their white jerseys with pewter pants (and their pewter helmets). In their only previous Super Bowl (which they won), the Buccaneers wore red jerseys with pewter pants and helmet.
Super Bowl teams wearing these colors have the following results:

• Pewter Helmet: 1-0 (TB 1-0)
• White Jersey: 34-20
• Pewter Pants: 1-0 (TB 1-0)

The Chiefs will wear their home red jerseys and white pants as they did last year. The Chiefs lost in the first Super Bowl wearing white jerseys, but won in Super Bowls IV and LIV wearing red jerseys (All with white pants and red helmets). This season, the Chiefs were 9-2 in red jerseys (8-2 in red with white pants), while going 7-0 in white jerseys.
Super Bowl teams wearing these colors have the following results:

• Red Helmet: 2-5 (KC 2-1) [Bills have other 4 losses]
• Red Jersey: 6-4 (KC 2-0) [SF has 3 wins, TB has 1 win; NE, SF, ARI, ATL have 1 loss each]
• White Pants: 15-28 (KC 2-1)

The Chiefs have the following records in Super Bowls wearing these uniform combinations:

• White Jersey, White Pants: 0-1
• Red Jersey, White Pants: 2-0

So why did the Buccaneers elect to wear white jerseys?
Some might argue it is because they lost to the Chiefs (in Tampa) in week 12 and didn't want to repeat that. Others will cite their 2020 record by uniform -- 9-2 in white jerseys [including 5-0 in white with pewter pants], 3-2 in red jerseys, 2-1 in pewter jerseys. You could look at the history of Super Bowls and teams 34-20 record in white jerseys including 13-3 in the last 16 Super Bowls (Packers Green, Eagles Green, Chiefs Red).
How uncommon is it for the designated home team to elect to wear white jerseys in the Super Bowl?
Well, there are 6 previous occurrences, with a 4-2 record:

SB	Home Team in White	Result	Reason (not confirmed)
XIII	Cowboys	Lost 35-31 to Steelers	Cowboys White Jersey Tradition
XVII	Redskins	Won 27-17 over Dolphins	Unknown, but rumors of red jersey struggles
XXVII	Cowboys	Won 52-17 over Bills	Cowboys White Jersey Tradition
XL	Steelers	Won 21-10 over Seahawks	White throughout playoffs, kept trend
50	Broncos	Won 24-10 over Panthers	Curse of Orange in Super Bowl
LII	Patriots	Lost 41-33 to Eagles	12-1 record in prior 13 Super Bowls

Patches

In every Super Bowl since XXXII (1997), the teams participating in the Super Bowl have worn a patch of the Super Bowl logo on their jerseys. Additionally, Super Bowls XXIX and XXV saw the same type of patches. In all of these cases, the tradition has been for the patches to be placed on the upper left chest (heart area) of the jerseys. This means that Super Bowl LV will be the 26th Super Bowl with game logo patches on the teams' jerseys. The Chiefs will be wearing the patch on the right of the jersey this year as they traditionally have the Lamar Hunt AFL patch on the left. Teams that go against the tradition are 4-2. The most recent occasions were the 2011-12 Ravens who beat the 49ers and last year's Chiefs defeating the 49ers.
The following are the teams that have worn the SB logo patches on the right side of the jersey due to another patch already on the left:

Super Bowl	Team	Patch on Left	Result
LV	Kansas City Chiefs	AFL/Lamar Hunt Team Uniform Tradition	TBD
LIV	Kansas City Chiefs	AFL/Lamar Hunt Team Uniform Tradition	Win
XLVII	Baltimore Ravens	"Art" honoring Art Modell	Win
XLVI	New England Patriots	"MHK" honoring Myra H. Kraft	Loss
XLV	Pittsburgh Steelers	Steelers logo Uniform Tradition	Loss
XLIII	Pittsburgh Steelers	Steelers logo Uniform Tradition	Win
XL	Pittsburgh Steelers	Steelers logo Uniform Tradition	Win

It may be worth noting that in SB X, the Steelers and Cowboys wore Bicentennial patches, but Dallas had them on their shoulders. Additionally the Giants wore memorial patches to honor a fallen teammate in SB XXI.

Matchup History

The Chiefs and Buccaneers have played head-to-head 13 times before, all in the regular season. The Chiefs won the first matchup in 1976, the Buccaneers followed up with two wins, then 4-straight for Kansas City, then Tampa Bay won 5 in a row, and finally this year's week 12 meeting went to the Chiefs.

• Tampa Bay is 7-6
• Tampa Bay leads in points 267-260
• Tampa Bay is 4-0 when both teams wear the uniform combos for Super Bowl LV ('04,'08,'12,'16) including twice at Raymond James Stadium
• Kansas City is 1-3 at Raymond James Stadium
• Home teams are 7-6 in the series
• Tampa Bay is 5-1 wearing Pewter helmets, 2-5 in white helmets from the creamsicle era
• One Overtime game in the series
• Lowest scoring game: 3-0 Tampa Bay (12/16/79); Highest scoring game: 34-31 Tampa Bay (11/07/04)

Broadcast

Since 2000, the 7 Super Bowls on CBS have had the following characteristics:

• NFC won 6 of 7 coin tosses, first 4 receive, last 3 defer
• First 2 teams defended north, 2 defended south, 2 defended east, 1 defended west (Raymond James is N/S)
• All February 7 Super Bowls have been on CBS
• AFC has won 6, NFC has won 1 (Saints)
• 3 NFC South teams have played, 1 AFC West team has played

Coin Toss

For those that are familiar with my work, I am a coin toss guru. I love looking for random patterns in coin tosses. Here are some notes about Super Bowl coin tosses and these two teams:
In Super Bowls:

• AFC teams have kicked the opening kickoff 32 times
• Teams that kick the opening kickoff in previous Super Bowls are 25-29
• Teams that win the coin toss are 24-30
• Teams that win the coin toss and defer are 3-8
• Teams that win the toss and elect to receive are 21-22

In Super Bowls I-XLII & XLIV, every team that won the toss elected to receive. In SBs XLIII & XLV-present, every team to win the toss has elected to defer. But recent history has been strange...
Recent Super Bowls:

• In the last 6 Super Bowls, the team that won the toss lost the game (all deferred)
• The NFC team has won 6 of the last 7 coin tosses
• In the last 17 Super Bowls, only 6 teams have called heads, yet only 7 heads have actually occurred
• 8 teams have made a correct coin toss call in the past 17 Super Bowls (30 all-time)

Officials

Position	Number	Official	Super Bowl Experience
Referee	51	Carl Cheffers	LI (R)
Umpire	11	Fred Bryan	LIII (U)
Down Judge	53	Sarah Thomas	-
Line Judge	59	Rusty Baynes	50 (LJ)
Field Judge	95	James Coleman	-
Side Judge	103	Eugene Hall	LIII (FJ)
Back Judge	105	Dino Paganelli	XLVII (BJ)
Replay Official	-	Mike Wimmer	XXXVII (Video Op) XLIX (Replay Official)
Replay Assistant	-	Sean McKee	-
Alt R	14	Shawn Smith	-
Alt U	128	Ramon George	-
Alt DJ	6	Jerod Phillips	-
Alt LJ	84	Mark Steinkerchner	XXXIX (LJ) & XXXVII (LJ)
Alt FJ	97	Tom Hill	XL (SJ), XLIX (SJ) & LII (FJ)
Alt SJ	26	Jabir Walker	-
Alt BJ	88	Brad Freeman	-
Alt Replay	-	Mark Butterworth	-

Mark Steinkerchner and Mike Wimmer were involved in the Buccaneers previous Super Bowl. Cheffers, Bryan, and Hall have all officiated Tom Brady Super Bowls (As have alternates Steinkerchner and Hill). Sarah Thomas officiated the Week 12 game between these two teams (with Tom Hill and Ramon George)

Divisions

The NFC South is 1-2 vs the AFC West in Super Bowls All-Time (TB responsible for the win)
The Buccaneers are 1-0 in Super Bowl appearances:

• 1-0 vs. AFC West ( Raiders)

The Chiefs are 2-1 in Super Bowl appearances:

• 1-1 vs. NFC North (Win vs. Vikings, Loss vs. Packers)
• 1-0 vs NFC West ( 49ers)

Rule of 11s

Looking back at Super Bowls XI, XXII, XXXIII, XLIV to find weird trends:

• Teams in white jerseys won all Super Bowls
• The Colts are the only AFC representative not in the AFC West, Vikings and Redskins the only NFC representative not in the NFC South
• First two in California, the rest in Florida
• Home teams lost all Super Bowls
• The most recent 3 all had a team call heads, and the NFC team won the toss, and the AFC teams have defended East
• All teams have elected to receive, 3 of 4 got the coin toss call correct

Artist: Bad Bunny
Album: YHLQMDLG
Release Date: February 29, 2020
Listen: Spotify | Apple Music
November 22, 2019

It's a beautiful, warm day at [Insert any beach in Latin America]. You lay on the sand with your friends as you enjoy your drinks and the ambiance around you; the sun on your skin, the vendors trying to sell your seashell jewelry walking by, the random kids playing around with too much sunscreen on, and your speakers trying their hardest to be louder than the group next to you that's also playing music. You're lost in thought until one of your friends calls your attention...
"Hey!, can you play the new Bad Bunny song"

Vete (“Go Away”)

• Go away // No one is holding you back and the door is open

Benito Antonio Martinez, otherwise known by his stage name Bad Bunny is a figure you’re way too familiar with, in fact, it’s fair to say that most people in a Spanish-speaking country are not only familiar with him and his works but have a strong opinion about it. The Puerto Rican artist became an overnight sensation in 2016, after being found on Soundcloud and starting to work with a label. From then on, he became a major player in the Trap scene, getting thrown into every remix and feature possible, but with this level of success and notoriety, so came a lot of criticism, a lot of it being in bad faith. Like most artist in the “Urban” genre, Bad Bunny got backlash for the content matter of his lyrics being “too violent and sexual”, but he also got mocked for his extravagant style, so very quickly boomers and those Rock music dudes that wear t-shirts with the cover of The Dark Side Of The Moon made him the main target of their lewronggeneration-core memes, but that didn’t become too much of a problem, as he had grown a strong enough fan base, which came in-handy in 2018 when he parted ways with his label Hear This Music and released his debut album, X100pre.
Bad Bunny didn’t completely leave behind the abrasive, loud trap tracks that rose him to fame, but he started putting out songs with a softer, more relaxed beat and got pretty personal with his lyrics, embracing a “sad boy of reggaeton” aesthetic that doesn’t get explored often in the genre. Vete very easily fits in this category. In the verses, he raps over a mid-tempo, moody trap beat about wanting someone else to leave his life, as they only make his life worse. He makes his arguments strong and clear, his mind is made up, but once it’s contrasted with the repetitive hook, where he constantly insists “Go Away”, it sounds less like a confident demand, a more like a desperate beg for freedom, giving the song a more bittersweet touch.

Days later, the music video dropped, and at the very end, a text appeared with the initials “YHLQMDLG”...
Something was coming…

February 28th, 2020

You wake up early, on a calm Sunday afternoon, and like any person aged 14-35, you check your phone before even getting out of bed. You notice that “Bad Bunny” is trending on Twitter, which isn’t exactly odd, he isn’t a stranger to making headlines, just a mere weeks ago he was on everyone’s lips after making an appearance on the Super Bowl halftime show, so you go check out what’s going on with him, and boy, he sure knows how to get the people talking…

Ignorantes (Ignorant) ft. Sech

• I don’t know why we leave each other // If you love me, and I love you

Following his yearly tradition of releasing heartbreak songs on Valentine’s Day, Ignorantes featuring Sech was released on the 14th. A sad dancehall-inspired song that talks about a couple that despite loving each other, didn’t commit to the relationship, leading to its downfall. The duo performed it last night on The Tonight Show, but their presentation wasn’t necessarily what made headlines.
CW: Transphobia. Hate Crimes. The main reason why this performance made its way through the internet though, was because of Bunny’s choice of wardrobe. He came out wearing a skirt and t-shirt that read “They murdered Alexa, not a man on a skirt”, in reference to Alexa Negrón Luciano, a transgender woman that got murdered in Puerto Rico after someone called the police on her for using the women’s restroom. It’s saddening to admit that misogyny, homophobia, and transphobia are still ingrained in Latinx culture, and at times it’s openly embraced by some of the genre’s biggest artists, so having the current face of Latino success openly demanding respect for a transgender woman that was victim to the hostile environment created towards the LGBTQ+ community in Latin America was a big deal. It’s still pretty fair to criticize Bad Bunny’s activism and actions, but I find it relevant to point out his efforts to use his platform to inform people and create a safer environment for those that historically have been belittled.
After the performance, he also gave an interview in which he revealed some vital information about his upcoming project. He confirmed that it would be a 20 track long album, titled YHLQMDLG, short for Yo Hago Lo Que Me Da La Gana (“I Do What I Want), and it will be released tomorrow at midnight.
That was insane! 18 new songs to add to our playlist by the man that has soundtracked all of our night outs for the past few years. The clubs and parties after this release were going to be better than ever!
...
:)
March 28, 2020

Well… it’s been a month since the album dropped. You haven’t had a chance to go to a party to enjoy the songs, in fact, you haven’t had the chance to go anywhere but the supermarket, in hopes that there will be toilet paper and hand sanitizer, as the entire world had to enter lockdown for an undecided amount of time. So out of nowhere, you found yourself stuck at home, with nothing but time to get stressed about the uncertainty of the near future, and social media and the news sure aren’t helping with all that.
So you know what? “Fuck it” you say. You’ll take Gal Gadot’s advice, and simply imagine that this shit is not happening, Nothing wrong with practicing some escapism in times of despair, and good ole reggaeton always helps the soul. So you open Spotify, spend a whole minute trying to type the album’s godforsaken name, and get ready for the perreo...
…
...Is that a toy piano?

Si Veo a Tu Mamá (“If I See Your Mom”)

• And if I see your mom, I ask her about you // To know if you already have someone, someone that makes you happy

In a confusing yet amazing turn of events, the album opens with a song prominently featuring a chiptune keyboard that interpolates The Girl from Ipanema, and lyrics that shift from wistfully honest to hilariously rateable.
The subject matter of the song is about failing miserably to get over a relationship, and not be able to think about anything else but the person that dumped you. Bad Bunny is able to portray the heartbreaking moments a person goes through when mourning a relationship, that are just embarrassing in hindsight, like trying to call them while drunk or not wanting to delete their pictures from your phone, or like the title says, asking their mom how they’ve been doing.
This song also accidentally had a verse with a sentiment that would end up resonating with a lot of people:

Damned new year and what it brought me
They kicked me out of my job, for looking at the ground
Thinking about you, always crestfallen
I’ve been getting chubbier, I can’t lose weight

La Difícil (The Hard One)

• She plays hard to get, but she goes out // Hanging out with her friend, always high

We now come back to a sound Bad Bunny is more familiar with. La Dificil is a reggaeton song, reminiscent of the mid-2000s style. The chorus narrates about a woman that likes to act tough and uninterested around the narrator, but in reality, she’s indeed interested in him.
Many tend to criticize the genre’s tendency to objectify women and using them as accessories, but the female character of this song isn’t simply a pretty woman that gets mentioned solely to brag about having sex with her, instead, she’s front and center of the narrative. Even while the hook only lets us know about her regarding her situation with the narrator, the verses speak about nothing but her, to the point that at the end of the song we have a better picture of her, than the person describing her. This gets backed up by the music video, where “La Dificil” is portrayed as a single mother working as a video vixen and model to pay for her and her daughter’s expenses.
Even while being described as “acting hard to get”, a term often used by men to refuse to accept the fact that she’s not into them, the song doesn’t paint the woman’s attitude as anything negative, instead, shows it off as someone confident that knows their worth.

La Santa (“The Saint”)

• Don’t act like a saint, you love grinding

Featuring Latinx royalty, Daddy Yankee, La Santa can easily be compared to La Dificil lyrically. While the latter talks about a woman that pretends to not be interested in men, La Santa tells the story of a woman that falls for the narrator, when all he wanted was to hook up. Channeling his inner fuckboy, Bad Bunny explains that he does not trust anyone, after being wronged before, therefore, not wanting anything to do with a relationship, and solely for the fact that she is trying to pursue one, she’s trying to change him, “acting as if she was a saint” he says. He focuses less on “La Santa”, and speaks more about the lifestyle of the narrator, giving details as to what his expectations were, all while Daddy Yankee adds snarky comments in the background like “don't’ tell me you feel in love with me”. The song ends up being a harsh rejection to a woman that expected more from a one night stand, but it also works as a reminder for the listener, that men ain’t shit.

Yo Perreo Sola (“I Dance By Myself”)

• You used to ignore me, now I ignore you // You used to not want me now I don’t want you // Chill, I dance by myself

It can be easy to argue that most of Bad Bunny’s activism in his music is quite subtle, he doesn’t always tackle the issues in a direct way but battles them by trying to shine a light on them via his music videos and performances, but there’s nothing related to Yo Perreo Sola’s message that is subtle
Just like in La Dificil, the woman is the protagonist of the story, and any men mentioned in the song are always in relation to her. As soon as this starts playing, confidence starts oozing out of the speakers, as Nesi repeats the hook, that the more you listen to it, the more it sounds like a mantra. Yo Perreo Sola is the perfect anthem for any woman that has been obligated to kindly tell creeps at the club to fuck off.
The music video for the song depicted Bad Bunny in drag, dancing alongside an entire-female cast. He doubles down on the song’s message by dancing in front of a green neon sign that reads “Ni Una Menos”, the name of a feminism movement that campaigns against gender-based violence, and by closing off the video with the message "Si no quiere bailar contigo, respeta, ella perrea sola" ("If she doesn’t want to dance with you, respect her, she dances by herself.")

Bichiyal

• She is a "bichiyal" // She likes to ride banshees and make them screech

To understand the song, we first must explain what is a “Bichiyal”. It comes from the mix of two words, “Bicha”, a derivation of the word “Bitch”; but can also refer to a snobby, upper-class woman, and “Yal”, a derogatory term used to talk about lower-class women. So, quoting editor Frances Solá-Santiago, “a ‘bichiyal’ is a woman who exists between two worlds: the privileged life of Puerto Rico's upper-middle-class and the violent, vulnerable experience of the island's poorest neighborhoods.”. The song never really reveals what class she actually belongs to, nor which one she desires to be, it merely describes different aspects of her life that seem contradictory, but once they meet in someone’s personality, can be quite endearing…
What I’m trying to say is that Bad Bunny saw this picture and turned it into a song.

La Zona (The Zone) & Que Malo (How Bad)

As soon as La Zona started, you couldn’t help yourself losing yourself in the music and dancing to it. This truly sounded like the perfect song to enjoy at a dance club, with a smooth and easy-going reggaeton beat that effortlessly transitioned into Que Malo. You’re too busy enjoying the v i b e s to pay attention to the lyrics of the song… Is it talking about enjoying having intercourse with a girl because she has a boyfriend? Whatever, who cares? Some songs are less about the lyrics, and more about the aura it generates, and this certainly makes you feel like you’re at a slowed-down Instagram fan edit. You’re having so much fun, that before you even realize it, you’re once again listening to the familiar sound of Vete and Ignorantes! ^{How convenient for the writer!}

A Tu Merced (“At Your Mercy”)

• I got a couple of girls blowing up my phone // And I'm thinking of you, I'm at your mercy

Whoever said chivalry is dead certainly never heard the delicate verses of the poet San Benito, the horniest gentleman to ever exist. A Tu Merced is about Bunny wanting to be with a specific girl, even when he has other girls trying to chase him. Pretty romantic, right? Well, that doesn’t seem to be what he’s going for, in fact, the woman he’s singing this to is pretty against it...

I know you’re tired of romanticism // And other dudes all telling you the same

Instead of trying to come off as a prince in shining armor, instead, he just tries candidly to express the pure lust he feels and how he just wants to spend the night with her, and he’s able to do so with a single line in the hook:

Tú siempre está' mojá' y yo que tengo sed (“You’re always so wet, and I happen to be thirsty”)

*sighs* He just has such a way with words.

Una Vez (“One Time”)

• And let me feel you once // In case I don't see you again

You hear a mysterious whistling, covered by some muffled sounds that slowly get clearer and closer, and in a matter of a second, as if a door had been opened, the music wraps you up and you feel the atmosphere change. Una Vez is able to recreate the feeling of being in the middle of a crowd; the heavy bass, the music bouncing off the walls, the slowed + reverb sounding production, it all takes you back to when you could go out, and you picture yourself with your friends screaming the romantic and lewd lyrics.
Something takes you out of your daydream tho. You feel a thundering bass making the floor shake. “Bla bla bla bla bla bla” you hear an autotuned voice sing. You’re disoriented, and before you can even notice, it begins….

"¡DIABLO QUE SAFAERA!"

Safaera

• Damn, how insane // You have a nice ass, whatever you put on will stop traffic

“Safaera” is a Puerto Rican term used to describe when a person is acting uninhibited, bold, and daring, and boy, does this song live up to its name.
Referring to songs that have different segments and no real chorus as the “Bohemian Rhapsody” of their genre is overdone and uninspired, but that’s not the main reason as to why I’m hesitant to compare Safaera to it. Bohemian Rhapsody’s mystique relies on the fact that there’s nothing else that sounds like it and attempts what Queen did on it (which is not necessarily true... but that’s beside the point), and I simply don’t want to live in a world where Safaera is the only of its kind. Music that falls under the term of “Urban” can get stagnant and repetitive at times, which is why I always appreciate when artists try to do something new with the genre and find new ways to catch the listener’s attention, and I don’t think there’s been a song that so unapologetically tried to do that. The track is constantly changing tempo, key, flows, beats, and even samples; it doesn’t allow you to get comfortable, before switching up every aspect of the song, demanding that you give it your full attention.
And I haven’t even gotten to the lyrics…
Trap and Reggaeton aren’t strangers to sexual lyrics or explicit comments, you could even say it’s its bread and butter, but this is a song so wild, so insolent, that half-assing the lyrics would ruin the whole track. Every single person in that recording booth had to go all out, and they sure as hell delivered. Each line in the song is filled with the nastiest lyrics there can be, and a good amount of them are interpolations and callbacks to many other reggaeton classics, making this track feel like a mix of the new school and the old school, brought to you by a group of creators that truly appreciate the genre.
Safaera is a song made to destroy clubs and make crowds go crazy, and instead, it was conceived in a world where more than 20 people can’t be in the same living room without it being a national health risk, and yet, this crazy experiment was able to captivate so many people that I wouldn’t be shocked if once we can have parties legally again, this gets permanently added to every DJ setlist

25/8, Está Cabrón Ser Yo (It’s Hard Being Me), Puesto Pa’ Guerrial (“Ready for War”) & P FKN R

Having to follow up a song like Safaera on an album is truly not an easy job. How could you top a song like that? That answer is: you don’t. Bad Bunny seemed pretty aware that there was no point trying to top his best-of reggaeton mix and instead of going back to the club bangers, the next 4 tracks on the album are the most aggressive, straight trap songs in the project.
They all have a similar subject matter, but still are different enough to make them apart. The most notable of the bunch, 25/8 comes off as any brag anthem, but it has a very strong emphasis on how much Bunny has been working for the last few years, almost more than it’s humanly possible, and it gets painted cleverly with a flow and beat with barely any pauses or switch-ups. There are even 2 instances at the last 3rd of the song where the rapper expresses out loud how he has to keep the track going, as he still has something to say. It also gets unexpectedly political, calling out the government for not taking care of Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria, or expressing how “you can’t live with 7.25$”, in reference to the minimum wage.

Hablamos Mañana (“We’ll Talk Tomorrow”)

• I don't even know what your name is // Bye, we'll talk tomorrow

You’re getting closer to the end of the album, and honestly, your expectations are quite high right now. An album with peaks as amazing as this one has deserved a good send-off, so the bar is set pretty high, and honestly, it seems like Hablamos Mañana might not exceed your expectations. The song isn’t bad by any means, it’s pretty decent, with a pretty percussion-heavy beat, accompanied by flute harmonies, and it has some interesting production choices like the vocoder choir before Pablo Chill-e’s verse, but it simply falls flat it’s in its chorus. It’s aiming at sounding aggressive, chanting the album’s title “I do whatever I want” multiple times, but lacking a punch to make it feel like he means it… which is weird, as Bad Bunny hasn’t been scared to make tracks that sound like a fistfight.
But then, as Duki’s verse finishes, the guitars that were just slight decorations in the background are moved to the front of the instrumental, and with the help of some drums, the track gets turned into a Rock song, giving the song the missing edge and punch that was so needed. A synthesizer crescendoes aiming for a huge climax… and then it switches up again, into a softer, reverb drowned electro-acoustic guitar, that seamlessly transitions onto the closer.

<3

You sit there, processing what just happening, as the dreamy guitar loop continues, and Bad Bunny starts rapping. The song is the most stripped back of the album, abandoning the eccentric production choices and just allowing his words to be front and center. In <3, also referred to as Gracias (“Thanks”), Bunny reminisces on his life, describing his journey to fame, his current and future goals, and how he feels about his current success. It doesn’t feel like he’s bragging about everything that he has accomplished, but instead, it comes off as a sincere letter to everyone that has supported him throughout the years.
“Now that I’m grown, I do whatever I want” is the final line from the song, and after listening to the entire project, you can really understand why he named the album after it. He is not only talking about his lifestyle, but also about the way he sees music. In the course of 1 hour, Bad Bunny explored with the many styles and genres that have inspired his career giving everyone a look into the mind of a Reggaeton and Trap aficionado eager to mix and play with other genres and sounds.
The album closes off giving you some time to take everything in, while a harp and an angelic choir serenade you in the background. It makes you feel weirdly melancholic but inspired. Maybe, you too should start doing whatever you want.

Questions for the culture discussion

1. What did you think of the album? What were your favorite tracks?
2. If you had been aware of Bad Bunny before, how have you been feeling about his trajectory as an artist?
3. Ignoring the fact that since the release of this album, he has released 2 more projects What are you hoping to see in the future from Bad Bunny?
4. Would you rather fight 1 Benito-sized bunny or 100 bunny-sized Benitos?

If you've made it this far, thanks for reading all of this! It means a lot. Thanks to u/ThereIsNoSantaClaus, for allowing me to talk way too much about an artist I love, u/wailor_fan, for letting me swap dates because I needed more time to finish this essay, and u/frogaranaman, for helping me get inspired.
And remember folks "si tu novio no te mama el culo, pa' eso que no name"

Artist: Aesop Rock
Album: Spirit World Field Guide
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Background by ItsBigVanilla
Aesop Rock probably wouldn't want you to know his real name. Despite the rapper's current standing as underground legend and collaborator extraordinaire, he's never quite been the approachable type. He doesn't revel in the obscurity of an MF DOOM or a Billy Woods – in fact, he's much more candid and intimate with his audience than either of them – but he is, decidedly, not an extrovert, either. A rare sight in the age of digital promotion, he prefers to use his social media as a journal, documenting his art and travels as he sees fit, and he keeps the conversation one-way by restricting his (obsessive, devoted) fanbase from commenting or interacting, even on news such as album announcements. He's had a multi-decade career and he boasts the biggest vocabulary in rap, but he's never been one to brag or adopt the typical look-at-me rapper posture. This shouldn't be mistaken for humility; rather, he's a proud introvert, a loner who picks pizza and pot over people and pictures, 10 times out of 10. So yes, sure, he's willing to give us glimpses into who he is, but only to a certain extent. It's a tightrope act: we know Aesop Rock the figure, the only rap GOAT who has walked the animal's walk (i.e. sleeping in a barn and eating trash) - but what can we learn about Aesop Rock, the man? I'd wager that most of his fans don't even know that he was born Ian Bavitz, in New York, 1976.
Ian was a middle child, sandwiched between two brothers whom he would immortalize in a song when he was 42 years old. By all accounts, he lived a normal, white, Catholic, nuclear, American life: bright kid (I assume), loved to skateboard, graduated high school at 18, studied visual arts at Boston University, picked up a bachelor's degree, even married a nice girl somewhere along the line (the exact “somewhere” is unclear, even on the mystical, all-knowing Internet, as is the date of their eventual divorce). To all concerned parties, he had no good reason to run off and become a rapper.
But run he did. As he made his way through school, Ian developed a passion for music. He inherited his older brother's punk rock taste – New York, riotous, Dead Kennedys, mosh pits before they called them mosh pits – but he also had an ear for hip-hop, which genre he followed from its infancy. And like every white boy does when he grows up on Run-DMC and Beastie Boys, Ian decided that he, too, might be good at that. Fashioning himself Aesop Rock, he started recording tracks while making his way through college, tapping into the creative energy of his friend Tony Simon, who would remain a steadfast collaborator for years, producing for him to this day. Tony – aka Blockhead – worked with Aes and producer Dub-L, and together they released Music for Earthworms in 1997, one year before graduation.
The album showed promise, and although it didn't propel anyone's career straight out of the gates, it signaled the start of something long-lasting and exciting. Aes and Blockhead followed it up two years later with Appleseed, an EP that highlighted their chemistry, expanded on their strengths, and attracted label attention. The label in question – Mush Records (which also released some early Busdriver albums) – offered him a deal, and in 2000, he released his official debut album, Float.
On Float, a sprawling, uneven record, Aes continued to throw everything at the wall to see what stuck. It's an album that, two decades later, feels charmingly dated, but it holds up in a way that many early-2000s indie rap projects don't. For a few long-gone New York rappers of that era, it would have been the high point of a career - but Aesop Rock was still just dipping his toes. And then he signed to Def Jux.
Definitive Jux should require no introduction, but alas. The label was (or still is, some argue) a New York-based collective co-founded by legendary rappeproducer El-P. Throughout the first decade of the 21st century, Def Jux existed at the fringes of rap, releasing some of the most innovative, forward-thinking, and downright strangest music in the history of the genre. The label's roster reimagined New York as a gritty dystopia on now-classic albums like Cannibal Ox's The Cold Vein and El-P's Fantastic Damage, which sound just as uncompromisingly fresh today as they did upon release. These albums, as well as those of artists like Mr. Lif, Cage, and RJD2, flipped the foundations of hip-hop on their ass, exposing a gleaming robotic underbelly of bizarre, creative energy and ambition, free from the constraints of any sort of mainstream attention. While the label hasn't been active since 2010 (good things, of course, never last), Def Jux represented a major moment for underground rap, which means that it represented a major moment for rap, full stop. This was Aesop Rock's moment.
Aes became involved with Def Jux shortly after releasing Float, signing with them as he worked on his next full-length project. He thrived in this space, both personally and creatively, forging close relationships with El-P and labelmate Camu Tao while collaborating with them - as both rapper and producer - on numerous tracks. Fans familiar with Aes's 2020 persona recognize the irregularity of this period – a time in which the rapper was anything but a loner, a time where the report card might have read “works well with others.” Experimenting within a bubble of oddball brilliance may have been the push that he needed to tap into his own potential, and in barely any time at all, he made his mark as an artist with the just-seven-days-after-9/11 release of his first Def Jux album, Labor Days.
Labor Days is the work of a rapper whose head is bursting with ideas, ideas that must be crammed into the confines of a single record because the next one isn't promised. It's a young man's album – overlong and grossly ambitious – but that of a young man in complete control of his abilities, and one whose talents run at a higher voltage than most others'. To speak nothing of Aes's talent as a wordsmith (think “got stoned and read the dictionary”), Labor Days features a fascinating glimpse into the man that he would become, in the form of “No Regrets”. The track tells the tale of a girl named Lucy, who eschews almost all social interaction in favor of her art, taking a lover from a considerable distance, and eventually dying alone, surrounded by her work and completely satisfied with her accomplishments, unphased that the rest of the world sees her as an outcast. Should we view this as a metaphor for the rapper's own eventual isolation? He probably wouldn't want us to. He'd probably be uncomfortable with it.
That album has now reached cult classic status. It sent Aes's career into orbit (a small orbit full of skateboard gaming song placements and a fanbase of dedicated nerds), and cemented his place in the world of underground rap. It took him another two years to release another full-length, which came in the form of 2003's Bazooka Tooth, a concept(-ish) album where Aes reimagines himself as the titular super-loser, relaying stories of city living, drug use, and rap beef atop production that he mostly did himself. The album took his already cynical lyrical content to an even darker place, perhaps inspired by the rapper's own mental health at the time (this period clouded by unconfirmed reports of anxiety attacks/depression/a nervous breakdown). The years that followed saw Aes become further entrenched in Def Jux, featuring on members' projects and dropping the occasional EP, but he wouldn't release another album until 2007.
2007 was an epilogue for Aesop Rock. It was the year he released his last album for Def Jux, the last time he released a solo project with rap features and outside production, and the last year that Camu Tao would spend alive, before succumbing to lung cancer in 2008. It's a year that marks the beginning of a sea change in Aes's public persona, and a shift in the content of his art. So it's best first to focus on the album.
None Shall Pass is the culmination of a career spent learning and evolving. It remains Aesop Rock's most accessible album to date, but instead of sacrificing any of the rapper's esoteric sensibilities, it elevates them to a pitch-perfect sweetness: listeners might not catch exactly what he's saying, but they hum along regardless. Aes shared production duties with Blockhead in almost equal measure, and the chemistry between the pair shines throughout each track. The album was a success: dense enough to satisfy hardcore fans, yet fun enough to attract hordes of new followers. It was Aes's biggest and best album yet, and it felt like he had nowhere to go from here but up. So naturally, he went down.
In short, Camu died, Def Jux fell apart, and Aesop Rock didn't release a solo album for another 5 years. In some ways, there's not much else that feels comfortable to say about this period, because Aes keeps pointedly silent about it when he isn't in the booth. There are rumors – fans whisper of a falling out with El-P over how to handle Camu's unreleased music – but not much is definitively known, except that the frequency of material released during this period is considerably lower than any period before, or after, it. If we extrapolate from lyrics and interviews, we can piece together one major component: Aesop Rock and Camu Tao were great friends, and watching Camu deteriorate took a massive toll on Aes's mental health. He became depressed, unable to maintain regular relationships, and he disengaged from the crumbling label he had spent the last decade of his life a member of. In 2012, El-P released an album, Cancer 4 Cure, dedicated to Camu. He sampled the late rapper's voice for the project's first and only single. It was his first studio album not to feature a verse from Aesop Rock. Aes had other plans.
In 2012, he released a solo album, Skelethon, his first on the label Rhymesayers Entertainment, to which he is still signed today. The project was, for the first time in his career, entirely self-produced, and arguably bleaker than any of his past material. It's an album that embodies what makes Aes unique: playful songs about haircuts and eating veggies (which are clearly inspired by featured anti-folk legend Kimya Dawson) line a tracklist that's full of brutal introspection, concluding with “Gopher Guts”, the most painfully honest song he's ever written, a song about his utter failure to treat himself and others correctly, an admission that he is losing his battles with personal demons. Skelethon marked another career shift, into a level of insularity and reflection that he had not shown previously. The album's legacy shines still: it is fully realized, meticulously crafted, a masterpiece.
And it wasn't the only one. After a four year period and some loose material, 2016 saw the release of The Impossible Kid, another completely self-produced project with even less outside assistance than the last one (not a feature in sight). What's immediately striking about the album is its clarity: Aes traded in (most of) his lyrical maximalism for something more easily digestible, and a few confessional tracks can even be made sense of on first listen, specifically “Get Out of the Car”, which directly addresses the pain and loneliness he felt after Camu's death. We take a funhouse tour through the labyrinth of his personal life, some of which might be troubling if they weren't so on-brand (getting a therapy cat, living in a barn, feeling like an old man at a juice shop, etc.). Moreso than anything he had released thus far, The Impossible Kid solidified his status as a loner, a pot-smoking homunculus who prefers the company of animals to humans, and who, against all odds, is one of the most talented rappers of all time. (Not to interject, but this is my pick for best Aesop Rock album, and it's the one that confirmed his spot as my favorite rapper.)
But Aesop Rock cannot be defined by his solo albums alone. In addition to the fantastic career he's built on his own merit, he's also an ambitious collaborator. He's released two albums alongside Rob Sonic as one half of Hail Mary Mallon, a group just dumb enough to structure a project around a fundraiser-concert-to-save-a-bowling-alley narrative. He's teamed up with Homeboy Sandman to release the Lice trilogy, a perfect series of EPs packed with enough one-liners to make Bruce Willis sweat. He even rapped alongside Kimya Dawson on Hokey Fright: released under the moniker The Uncluded, it's a mix of anti-folk and geek rap, and it tackles subjects such as laundry, organ donors, and sandwiches. It might be the strangest piece of work that either artist has ever been part of, and it's especially notable because the pair's goofy musical chemistry flies in the face of the current personal animosity between them. In a revealing series of statements (as well as a song), Dawson has accused Aes of emotional abuse and manipulative behavior during their time together (fans were initially unaware of a relationship). These allegations aren't particularly surprising given the rapper's own admissions of similar behavior, but they do highlight the reality of his situation: the more insular and elusive he becomes, the more his mythology deepens. Even revelations of alleged shittiness feed into his carefully cultivated persona, and although fans condemn his actions, they're not exactly unexpected.
His most recent project is 2019's Malibu Ken, another collaboration, this time with producer Tobacco of Black Moth Super Rainbow. It's a psychedelic trip into Aes's mind, and it demonstrates that he doesn't have to have full complete creative control to make great music. It's packed to the brim with the humor and wit we've come to expect, and it advances the personal, self-deprecating narrative that's been woven throughout the last eight year's slew of material. However, even though it's a full-length album, it felt like a minor release upon arrival - something perhaps less spectacular than usual - and fans wondered what else was in store for the future. Now, just one year later, we find out.
Review by ItsBigVanilla
Rap is a young man’s genre. It’s a world full of masculinity, braggadocio, and sexual feats that the oldheads just can’t pull off anymore. Hip-hop has been getting louder, crankier, and more aggressive with age: if Phife Dawg were alive today, would he dare enter a rap show without earplugs? Rappers come with expiration dates: 20 is the new 30, and unless you’re one of the three 1980s-born artists we’ve allowed to top the charts, you’re a dinosaur. It’s a rule that some fading stars (who shall remain unnamed) have refused to accept, instead grasping at youth in a last ditch, gray-hair-died-black attempt to reclaim the glory that they lost before some current hit-makers were even out of diapers (it’s Eminem – I’m talking about Eminem). Even the most elegant transitions to the elder role, a la Jay-Z’s 4:44, are only possible in reference to a body of past work that is considered to be untouchable. And as much as we all claim to love the wizened perspectives of veteran rappers, let’s face it – nobody wants to hear Hov rap about his back problems.
In limps Aesop Rock, with a bucket of curly fries and a pocket full of arcade tokens. His career runs longer than most: his first album released 23 years ago, and since then he's been a fountain of material, dropping a steady stream of full lengths and EPs across a discography littered with both solo and collaborative efforts. The mid-40s rapper has seemingly done it all, from the too-wordy street tales of his youth to the grim depths of brutal self-reflection and back again, settling into his current role as a lovable loser, stoned on the couch watching cartoons while his dusty phone rings off the hook. In 2005's “Facemelter” he proclaimed himself a “longevity veteran”: that was 15 years ago, only a third of the way to where he's at now. In this time he's amassed a fanbase devoted to dissecting his lyrics and speculating on his personal affairs, a fanbase so large and dedicated to supporting him that he can hardly be considered an underground artist anymore. Aesop Rock is a bona fide rap star – he's just spotlight-averse and happy to keep it to himself.
So how does a relatively low profile artist survive the gauntlet of a multi-decade rap career? Doesn't he run the risk of repeating himself, the fate-worse-than-death of descending into parody?
In short, yes.
It's no secret that Aesop Rock is a loner – he's been rapping about it for four presidential administrations. “Loser” is his M.O., his friendlessness makes us all feel like we're all his buddies, and despite his extraordinary musical abilities, he's spent years cultivating his image as an everyday slacker. He's been so successful from the fringes of the genre that he quite simply cannot claim to exist in the fringes of the genre anymore. It's the purest contradiction: he's an introvert, but he won't shut up about it. After 2019's (very good, but not quite up to par) Malibu Ken, this reviewer wondered: can a career like this survive, or is the formula bound to devolve into shtick?
Then, just one year later, Spirit World Field Guide arrives. At 21 tracks and 63 minutes, it's the rapper's longest album in 13 years (and fourth longest overall). Every track is self-produced, and only one (“Sleeper Car”) bears a co-producer credit. There are no skits or interludes past the intro, and, for the fourth album in a row, every verse is rapped entirely by Aesop Rock. By taking such complete control of his vision, Aes ensures that we're immersed in the world he's creating, and on this album especially, world-building is everything. As its title suggests, the project is structured to serve as a handbook for “all modern supernatural tourism” through the “spirit world”, a place of “unwavering otherness” that listeners may someday find themselves in. It becomes immediately clear – the theme isn't exactly subtle – that the world we're exploring is the rapper's own mind, a place of oddity and isolation, a phantom zone as full of adventure as it is divorced from reality. Bring on the eye rolls: just when he starts running the risk of beating a dead horse, Aesop Rock decides to make a concept album about it.
Rappers hate clear narratives. Adhering to a concept is difficult in any genre, but in one so wordy and full of distraction, the results are often less than cohesive. On such an ambitious undertaking, Aes could be forgiven for occasionally veering off-course, but instead, he spends each and every track building his universe from the ground up. After a brief and hypnotic introductory message in the form of a transmission from a spirit world traveler, we find ourselves at “The Gates”, a track that reintroduces us to the misfit we've come to love while cleverly delineating a physical starting point for our journey. In classic Aesop Rock fashion, it's brag rap about having nothing to brag about, sporting bars such as “I'm like Vincent Van with that instant rice” and “I don't stay for tea, I can't slow the code / I go coyote alone and ghost.” He's said it all before but it's still inimitable, and his flow has never sounded so technically perfect, so sure of itself over a beat that feels plucked out of a sci-fi arcade shooter. And with that, we're off. Welcome to the spirit world.
There's a lot to miss out on by half-listening to an album like this, but even the most cursory playthrough reveals that Aesop Rock has made astonishing progress as a producer over the last few years. The attention to detail rewards multiple spins: whether it's the Atari sounds that shape the wall of “Button Masher”'s Space Invaders-esque beat, or the subtle number-dialing effects that slide into the hook of “Jumping Coffin” as soon as Aes raps about “any kind of woo-woo tryna make a phone call”, there are so many production choices that serve conceptual and thematic purposes in addition to sounding great. Much like former collaborator El-P, Aes never lets his beats stagnate; instead, they're constantly shifting and evolving, introducing new elements between hooks or sometimes even within the span of a verse. Past projects may have seen the occasional beat switch, but never before has Aes been so sonically adventurous. From the mounting textures of “Pizza Alley” (complete with a glorious drum-dropping beat change) to the last-minute moodswitching of “Boot Soup” and “Coveralls”, the soundscape weaves and bobs, refusing to leave any room for boredom or repetition. Having self-produced his solo work since 2012, Aesop Rock deserves to be recognized as a visionary producer; this is the work of an artist talented enough to bring fantasies to life.
And those fantasies run deep. For all of its accomplishments, perhaps the most infectious thing about Spirit World Field Guide is just how packed to the brim it is with things that Aesop Rock loves. He's always been an animal lover – apparent from his album packaging to his merch to his lyrical content – but he's never managed to create a space so infested with critters. There are near-constant references to the fauna of the spirit world on each track (two of which are named after animals), and Aes is more likely to compare himself to a “deer in a scope” than to any of his peers. This is hardly gimmickry, as these references come to be greater than the sum of their parts, populating the album's human-averse universe with a menagerie of creatures both friend and foe. (Without peeking at any lyrics, I can think of mentions of horses, dogs, cats, flies, eels, fish, birds, dolphins, bats, wolves, and rats.)
Aes's preference for woodland pets over guest rappers isn't the only way he divorces his work from that of his peers. In fact, the Spirit World seems to exist in an entirely different decade than the rest of the genre. From the cheesy-80s-sci-fi-flick aesthetic of the album's music videos to the video game fetishism of its lyrical content (“I started spilling all my problems to the final boss / He shed a tear and let me by him like 'what's mine is yours'” on “Crystal Sword”), this project is more indebted to Sega and Ghostbusters than it is to anything to be found on Top 40 charts. Aes has been a student of rap since its birth, so it shouldn't come as a surprise when he samples Raekwon (“Straight up and down, don't even bother”) for a hook on “The Gates”, or weaves Ad-Rock's voice into a verse on “Salt”.He's utterly disinterested with the outside world, and even when he throws it a bone (i.e. a triplet flow at the ends of his verses on “Gauze”), we get the impression that he's only doing it to flex his muscles. The album feels like a throwback, albeit one that could have only been made by someone who's filtering his nostalgia through a time machine planted firmly in the future.
The result is something that we rarely find beyond rap's mainstream: an album brimming with pure fun. If it's a joy to listen to, that's because it feels like it was a joy to create. Late-stage Aesop Rock could easily phone in a few tracks every two years for a paycheck, but no - he refuses to kowtow to any will but his own. Every one of Spirit World's ingredients is something that he loves, and they come together to form a project that' feels like a personal victory lap: it's charmingly weird, infectiously confident, and as self-indulgent as a Tarantino movie.
Which isn't to say that there isn't a darkness lurking beneath the surface. Sprinkled throughout the tracklist are a few bite-sized songs, shorter than anything Aes has ever released in the past. These aren't merely interludes, they're the cracks in the walls of the Spirit World. On “Flies”, reality creeps through the facade, as Aes attempts to oust the horde of creatures infesting his drains, to no avail. “I'm clapping at the air, I'm cornered by the plates / I'm brought unto my knees, I'm forfeiting the space / I'm clawing at the walls, swarm ordering me ate / It's death from above, nobody saying grace”, he raps at the track's conclusion. It's funny in the same way that it was funny when he had a mushroom growing in his car, but it's also... a bit concerning. “1 to 10” is an ode to back pain that sounds like it's being rapped by a disappointed parent, or a man having his temperature taken – rectally. A bar like “Rate your pain level on a scale from one to ten / I said 'Well doc, I tell you, it feel like I lost a friend'” encapsulates the joylessness of middle-age, and if risks tiptoeing into dad-rap territory, it can be forgiven for its honesty. While these short detours feel like stares through the fourth wall, a few harsh moments of reflection seep into the longer tracks as well: when Aes raps about being the “architect of my Kodokushi”, what he's really saying is that he's created a life for himself that will result in a lonely death, one in which nobody will even find his corpse for days. Hiding a statement so grim behind a word that most of us won't understand without a Google search - and packing the whole thing into a one-liner – is enough to cause concern, especially considering that he said something pretty damn similar back in 2016. Just a few minutes later, Aes insists on “Marble Cake”, the true finale of the album (it was originally planned to be the final track), that he wants a death with no fanfare - “Y'all can feed me to the fucking pigs.” As much as he loves to couch these sentiments in snappy bars, they signal something else, a bleak cynicism that not even the fantasy of a Spirit World can obscure.
Yet overall, isn't this exactly what we've come to expect from Aesop Rock? Haven't we already seen him at his emotional worst on Skelethon, his most sentimental on The Impossible Kid, his weirdest on Malibu Ken? As enjoyable as these new tracks can be on their own, do they equate to a meaningful whole? Is there something fresh to be gained here, or is just Aes ushering in the new decade with a rehash of the last one?
(Side note: these are questions that I asked myself coming into this album, and I considered them every time I played it back. Aesop Rock is my favorite rapper, so I hold him to the highest standard; an artist's biggest fans should be the first ones to criticize them, and my conclusions are meant to reflect that.)
Spirit World Field Guide is a strong entry in the Aesop Rock catalog, and its high points stand among the best moments in the rapper's oeuvre. It's a culmination of the collection of skills he's acquired over the years, and it may offer a hint of things still yet to come. Aes sounds sure of himself in a way he never has before: he's mastering new flows, he's experimenting with production, and although he insists that he doesn't take himself too seriously, he really is gloating – 20 tracks, all by myself, not a skip in the bunch. He's perched atop the underground of rap, a veteran and a legend, and he knows it. It's a testament to his considerable greatness that an album released 23 years into his career feels almost like a greatest hits collection, and one that works perfectly as an entry point for new fans.
The Spirit World is more than just a half-assed metaphor, it's a living, breathing place. When Aes says “the river boils when it sees me”, then eight tracks later he's rapping about “river water that'll melt your fucking hands off”, it's because he's just as much an architect as he is a lyricist. It's truly remarkable that he can describe so much and never contradict himself, that he can drop 21 tracks and leave us wanting more, that he can rap forever and never spit a forgettable verse. This isn't an album, it's a bag of tricks: the paranoid storytelling of “Dog at the Door”, the double-time flow on “Gauze”, the 6/4 time signatures on “Side Quest”, the triumph of the synths that slide into the second half of the hook on “Holy Waterfall”, the crispness of the drums on every track – there's something new to fall in love with every time.
But when you're in Aesop Rock's position, a great album isn't always enough. This project represents the perfection of a formula, but the formula remains. Aes still mostly raps about being a loner, and while the sheer number of ways he's been able to revisit this idea is impressive, the content itself risks running thin. If this album is going to be remembered 10 years from now, it should be remembered as the end of an era – not as the moment a rapper became a caricature.
What keeps an artist great, decades into his career? If Aesop Rock wants to remain unique and compelling, to avoid treading the same waters twice, he will need to find ways to reinvent himself. He will need to capitalize on the experimentation of a Malibu Ken, or to expand on the introspection of an Impossible Kid, or perhaps to set his lyrical sights on something broader than himself. Maybe the coming years will see a more collaborative Aes lending his production skills to other rappers' work, or – heresy – even allowing them to feature on his. Hopefully some of the risks we're seeing him take with elements like song structure and time signatures will reappear in future projects. Spirit World Field Guide was originally supposed to be between 40 and 50 tracks; this might be feasible for the next one if Aes keeps his material as short and sweet as “Flies” or “1 to 10”. And call me crazy, but does anybody else wonder how he'd sound on a Griselda collab?
The possibilities are endless, and if the past is any indicator of what's to come, there will be surprises aplenty. On the album's final track, “The Four Winds”, Aes raps, “Baited adventuring out of his norm is a lesson in mapping the doors / Anything more in the lap of the gods, anything less an imbalance ignored.” I haven't figured out exactly what the hell it means, but I'm excited to find out.
Favorite Lyrics by ItsBigVanilla

Tangentially related in the sense of one's environment informing what they're made of
There was a ghost who broke it all up into tiny numbers
And dated vector graphics, and New York Times puzzles
Who struggled knowing love as more than boring data entry
More reported from an orbit all his own, to say it gently
I'm reporting from an orbit all my own, to say it gently

• “Button Masher”

What ship, what shore?
I grew up writing riddles under bridges in New York
Now I travel like a highwayman who whispers to his horse
Sharing stories out of winter, trying to trigger something pure

• “Pizza Alley”

No stacked sash or accolades from authority
The backstory gets all back-into-a-corner-y
Abuses in the feeding tube that circle back to eat at you
Bacteria that tip the hat, adversity that gleam the cube
It's tit for tat with slippery aristocrats who pity cops
And brilliant rats who find the grit to slip out of the Skinner box
The moat's supposed to keep the rivals out
The calls are coming from inside the house

• “Marble Cake”

Breaking out of that boarded house, faking normal has wore me down
Hit the road, an old misanthrope alone, tip me over and pour me out
Cozy up to that pressure cooker, my heart's a bottle, my head's a butcher
My blood a mix of both milk and sugar, I push the pencil, no pencil-pusher

• “Boot Soup”

I've been ignoring any semblance of relatable Earth
I got a homie from the region who could name every bird
And tell you what it is to wake up with a tank in the yard
Type of shit to make you question what your days even are
There's a holy waterfall where you could rinse and repeat
Find religion while the minnows eat the skin off your feet
If you wake me on a January morning at four
Don't get excited when I bark at the door

• “Holy Waterfall”
Discussion Questions by ItsBigVanilla
• 1) What can Aesop Rock do to avoid becoming too predictable and formulaic as his career progresses? Do you prefer solo work since he's been self-producing, or was his output stronger before 2012?
• 2) In my review, I mentioned a few production details that add life to tracks like “Button Masher” and “Jumping Coffin.” What are your favorite moments of production on the album?
• 3) If Aes did decide to work with outside producers or feature other artists on his solo work, who would you like to see him collaborate with?