Betfair Exchange Simulator

Betfair exchange market, betting on small odds

For the record, this is not a plug for Betfair, or an inducement to start gambling, or an attempt to scrape commission. In fact I would strongly advise against starting an account until your are familiar with how Betting exchanges work.
Betfair is a legit site, though. It is the world's largest betting exchange, available to users in the UK, and a number of other countries, but not the US or France, for instance. They have lots of political betting markets.
Anyway, this particular politics market has caught my attention, because the odds look way off:
UK Party Leaders Exit Dates - Theresa May. The wary can paste that into google, but otherwise here is the direct link: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125589838
You can verify the precise explanation of the market by clicking on the rules button, where it states the market is: "When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?"
Well, the "April 2019-June 2019" option should be odds-on right? I mean she only announced to the whole world yesterday that she would be standing down as leader of the Conservative (and Unionist) Party on Friday 7th June. And yet....the odds for her leaving by the end of June are still currently around 3.45 (in the blue column) This is equivalent to about 5/2 in standard betting odds.
I know Theresa May is very bad at keeping her promises, but I think there is something else going here. Perhaps a lot of punters think this is a market for when Theresa May is going to quit as Prime Minister - or leave Number 10 - which is not the same thing, and is likely to be several weeks after the June 7th party leadership resignation date.
Or is there some explanation that I haven't seen? What else is likely to happen between now and June 7th that could stop Theresa May from resigning!?
TLDR: Theresa May is currently the Prime Minister and ALSO Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party. They are two completely separate roles, and it is perfectly possible to be one and not the other (eg Tony Blair was just PM and Ian Duncan Smith was just Conservative Leader). May is resigning as Conservative Party Leader on 7th June, but will remain as Prime Minister until July.

I am just getting started with Betfair Exchange, but even though I have read a bit about different strategies, I can't seem to find the reason why there is so much betting going on on the OveUnder 5.5 market at such low odds. https://imgur.com/tIjkpA3

Placing all my bets on the Betfair Exchange Market. Will update the challenge with replies to this post.

Does anyone know how market making works at a betting exchange? I know they provide liquidity, but how do they (market makers) make money?

Betfair Exchange without tennis markets in Sweden amid under-18 betting concerns. Operator has been without tennis markets since the summer due to uncertainty around compliance

Hey sportsbook, i've been betting on UK & Irish horse racing for most of my life, in recent years i've developed a system based algorithm to find undervalued horses which I've been running for 4 years now. I'm willing to share 1 of my systems daily for abit of fun and to bring some attraction to the great sport that is Horse racing.
System stats: Average odds: 7.8 Strike rate: 26.46% pts over 4 year period: 4648 (so $4648 to $1 stakes) ROI: 18.2%
How to bet the system: Its extremely important that the bets are placed the day before the races, this is extremely important and known as taking "EP" or "Evening price" the reasoning for this is that our system has identified the value before the money has flooded into the market, hence shortening the odds, so the earlier you bet THE BETTER, some sportsbooks i'd reccomend for racing are Bet365 and Boylesports as they both have great promotions and price their races earlier than most books. I should also note never to take "SP" price as its bad value.
Tomorrows picks:
Curragh 14:05: Breaking News 14:40 Kudbegood 14:40: Matilda With Me 15:50: Cardinal Rule 16:20: Pretty Boy Floyd
Hereford 12:40: Lord apparelli 13:10: My Mums Posh 13:10: Cushuish 14:10 Across the line 14:45: Kauto the king 15:20: Wiscracker
Kempton 13:50: Cashel 14:20: Perfect inch 16:35 Loxley 16:35: Tribal Craft
Plumpton 12:50: Hawk wind 13:20: Hidden cargo 13:55: Gunnery 15:05: Constancio 15:40: Mind your back
Wolverhampton 17:20: Batraan 17:50: Minhaaj 18:20: Dazzling Rock 18:50: Shamshon 20:20: Plansina
I've made my own post as There is only weekly discussion for horse racing sadly, I hope this changes. If you are skeptical about my model put $0.10 on each horse and see how you fair, you might be surprised at the results, hf all

Had a bet on Trump +140.5. It should have been settled long ago, but still wasn't paid out. Got tired of waiting so I chose the cash-out option for slightly less than full profit. It showed me how much profit I would get and asked me to confirm. Then, I only received my stake. None of the profit. WTF?

- Know the smart, sharp sportsbooks. Many aren't in the United States. If you're serious about betting on sports, then, simply put, you have to know the sharp books. Who's lines can you trust? Pinnacle, 5dimes, and Betfair exchange (for most sports) are great. They take lots of volume, have very tight lines, and are very efficient. They get many, many multiples the volume of Fanduel, DraftKings, and other US sportsbooks. You can't bet on them if you are in the U.S. since they are offshore, but you look at them to determine what are good betting opportunities. If Pinnacle and other sharp books all make a game +110/-120, then you should be pretty thrilled to buy the favored team for +100 on Fanduel (as an example). A (maybe?) decent analogy - if some stock is trading $300 on major exchanges with tons of volume, and somebody says they'll sell it to you at $290, then that sounds pretty good...Arbitrage exists in sports betting, and that's fantastic. Take advantage of it. Use efficient markets to make cash off the inefficient markets of US sportsbooks. Take the profitable bets when they arise.
Everything is obviously my opinion, but, hey, I have at least a little credibility in the space ;) Message me any questions you have on any of these topics as well
Fanduel Profit & Loss
- Again, sports betting is all about probability (law of large numbers...). In every game, there is always a price I'd buy both teams. If Was Football is currently trading +380 vs. the Bucs in major markets, I'd happily buy them +450 if I could find it on Fanduel or Barstool or whatever. I'd also happily but the Bucs -300. No team is 100% to win (lol Rams Jets). If a team is +1500, they only need to win 1/16 of times for you to break even. And, similarly, if a team is -1500, they need to win 15/16 times for you to break even. That's an important consideration for anybody parlaying favorites...Remember the relationship between implied probability and sportsbook odds. Let's say a sharp book like Pinnacle makes an NBA game -120/+110: that means that favored team is roughly (120/220+110/210)/2 to win the game. That's the breakeven odds, the fair odds, from that book. Of course, lines could be slanted, and it gets more complicated for certain wagers, but you get the point. You can also use these sharp betting sites to price "odds boosts" and other promotions. If a boost is "Lakers & Mavs" to win +290, then back out the probability the Lakers win, and the probability the Mavs win, from Pinnacle or another sharp sportsbook. Multiply the probabilities (the games are independent), then calculate the implied odds. If Mavs/Lakers parlay is trading +320, don't bet it, you're getting bad odds. If it's trading +250, bet it, it is profitable (EV per $ = 1/3.5 x 2.9 + 2.5/3.5 x -1).
- My go to resource: Sportsbook review (I have 0 affiliation, some random company). No need to spend money on upgrades at all, I don't pay for anything on their platform, I just use it. They show you real time odds from sharp overseas sportsbooks so you can follow line movements. As an example, let's say the Titans pop to +140 fair odds (they're trading like +185 right now) on a variety of sharp sportsbooks, then I'll try to buy some Titans +175 on whatever US sportsbook I can before the line moves. When lines move, they are highlighted in bright red on the site which is very useful. There are tons, tons of other resources I use to pick off books and find good bets, but this is the #1 most valuable, free resource.
- There's basically never a deposit bonus (or DraftKings "mission") that's not worth it. I've had play throughs of 10x for sportsbook for 50% deposit bonuses, etc. The sportsbook thinks they are making money because they're winning the vig. But not with us ;) Use sportsbookreview to find lines that look good. I have an arbitrage bot to show me all market arbs, then I'll just bet the +EV side. Pretty easy to get significant volume on any book since none of the US books are particularly good at setting & adjusting lines...Betting more volume also = higher probability of getting VIP promotions = more promotions = more money for you.
- I know I've said this before in other discussions, but consider the longevity of your account. Before max betting an error on Fanduel, realize that Fanduel has limited tens of thousands of bettors at this point, and you could be next. Do you love all those dope promos and odds boosts? Would kind of suck to get $2 on them (my experience...) for one good bet. Betting errors for massive size is a sure-fire way to get limited quick. Again, I've said this before, so sorry for the repeat, but this is a critical point. $500 now is NOT worth it for an account worth thousands per month.
- Use free bets and profit boosts on long shots that look good to sharp markets on Pinnacle, etc. It's mathematically optimal. Never, please never, put a free bet or profit boost on a +100 wager.
- If you are arbing, realize that, overall, you're just making a ton of profitable bets and unprofitable bets to make a little bit of profit. There's always a profitable side. If you can tolerate some risk, it's more profitable to just bet the side that's good (of course) Otherwise, you're typically giving up like 3.5% to get out of your risk, and losing that profit margin. It all averages out anyways... Example: Fanduel is +190 Rockets, DraftKings -170 Mavs. Every other smart book on SportsBookReview is -210/+240. Just bet the Mavs. Who wants to buy a team +190 trading around +225? Lost profit margin.
- Don't watch games you bet big on. Just frustrating when you lose. Consider your mental health. It's random - sometimes you catch a bad beat, sometimes you get lucky. Just make good bets.
- Join a community of smart bettors. Spit ball bet ideas off each other. Use math and liquid lines to price wagers. There are dozens of +EV prop bets every day. Find them, just takes a bit of effort.
Dang, well, a lot, a lot more to write, but will keep it there for now. Feel free to message me any questions. Just the start of US sports betting.
Let me know what else is helpful. Happy to write about / share whatever. Let's make cash ladies and gents.

I think williamhill is one. Limited me to €1.37, but didn't delay my withdrawal of what I had made. What are others?

Bright emotions with the Si14 Betting exchange. Dear users! We would like to thank you for your support of our project. Thanks to pre-registrations on the Si14Bet platform our company has collected over 320.000 pre-registrations. Si14 AG is working on open registrations on the platform at https://si14.bet. All top sports events will be presented on the platform. By popular demand, New Zealand dog racing and horse racing are included. Our company would like to thank the scouting companies who kindly provide data and support the development of Si14Bet. Investment opportunities with Si14 AG! Thanks to the support of users and the many companies that are interested in creating a fair market for sports betting, Si14 AG is scaling up in the United States. The company is in the process of discussing sublicense work and terms of presence in the US market. Investment opportunities with Si14. What will the investor get? The investor will receive shares of Si14 AG ( The company's IPO is scheduled between 10.2021 and 05.2022 - https://si-14.com). Shares of Si14 AG are dividend. Want more details? Leave a request at [email protected] #Si14 #betfair #bet365 #Si14Bet #oods #livebetting #soccerbetting #bettingtip #soccerbetting #bookies #bettingexchange #rich #bookmaker #sportsgambling #millionaire #billionaire #makemoney #moneyonline #bettingexchang
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Betting exchange commission of 1%. Dear Affiliates, Si14 sports betting commission is 1% for winning transactions. Due to the low commission, the Si14 platform has attracted professional market participants, who have left applications to open an account. As of today, users also have the opportunity to reduce the commission from 1% to 0.5% by purchasing Si14 tokens. Exchange on which it is possible to buy token https://p2pb2b.io/trade (USDt - Si14) The private sale of 1 Si14 token is 11 USD The fair token price is 120 USD The open selling price is 26 USD Private token purchase is only possible from 1000 tokens In order to buy Si14 token: 1) Submit an application [email protected] 2) Complete KYC procedure 3) Sign an official contract with the company for purchasing the Si14 token. Dear investors, You also have the opportunity to become a co-founder of Si14 AG. Our company is conducting the second investment stage of selling the company's share. You can leave a request for consultation at [email protected]. Follow our news and join in the success story. For more information, please visit https://Si14bet.io #Si14 #betfair #bet365 #Si14Bet #oods #livebetting #soccerbetting #bettingtip #soccerbetting #bookies #bettingexchange #rich #bookmaker #sportsgambling #millionaire #billionaire #makemoney #moneyonline #bettingexchang
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https://href.li/?https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=excfb5henryviii

Click claim on the above, free £5 bet to use on the 13:50 Sandown on Saturday on the below:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/horse-racing/market/1.176336619
Free bet if not matched betting, if you are matched betting can't lay off on same exchange per the rules (smarkets to lay off as an option).
Have until 13:50 Saturday to place your bet!

Is anyone aware of what betting exchanges are taking bets on a Brexit 31st December deal/no deal bet? Interested in what’s odds are being offered and how they fluctuate over the coming days. Betfair don’t appear to be offering a market on their sportsbook or exchange which surprises me considering they have and active €1.7billion matched market on next US president! Searched other European bookmakers but none seem to offer a market.

The lack of a legal framework for the regulation of sports betting exchanges. Si14 AG is rapidly beginning the expansion of the betting market in India, Russia, New Zealand, and other countries due to the lack of regulatory bases for the regulation of sports betting exchanges. In January 2021 Si14 AG has planned the release of a platform for all users. The official domain name is https://si14.bet. Dear partners, Si14 AG is in the process of attracting investments. The company requires additional financial injections to refine the innovations presented in White-Paper. (https://si14bet.io/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/si14\_en-1.pdf) Dear investors, You also have the opportunity to become a co-founder of Si14 AG. Our company is conducting the second investment stage of selling the company's share. You can leave a request for consultation at [email protected]. Follow our news and join in the success story. For more information, please visit https://Si14bet.io #Si14 #betfair #bet365 #Si14Bet #oods #livebetting #soccerbetting #bettingtip #soccerbetting #bookies #bettingexchange #rich #bookmaker #sportsgambling #millionaire #billionaire #makemoney #moneyonline #bettingexchang
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Why hasn't one of us or someone in general developed an app or website where two different people can bet against one another at +100 odds? Let's say I like the Clippers at -5.5 tn and I'm willing to put $50 on it. You are also willing to put $50 on it but you like the Trailblazers at +5.5. Instead of us putting in our bets at a book, why don't we just place the bet amongst ourselves at +100 odds? I'm pretty sure something like this already exists for DFS, but I've never heard of anything like this for sports bets.

https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=EXCFB5KINGGEORGE
Event: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/horse-racing/market/1.177252051

Who can take part?

You can only take part using one account. If you have been excluded (via email or otherwise) by Betfair from taking part in any promotions, you will not qualify for this promotion.
This offer is open to new and existing customers, aged 18 or over, whose country of residence is United Kingdom or Ireland.
If you are opted into the My Betfair Rewards ‘Basic’ package you will not be eligible for the promotion.
To be eligible to claim the free bet you must have previously deposited with a Debit Card, Credit Card or Apple Pay.
Credit Card deposits are not available to accounts registered in the UK.

How and when can I qualify?

The free bet is available to claim from the promotions page.

What can I get?

A £5 (or currency equivalent) Exchange Free Bet to use on the King George VI Chase, 3pm Kempton, Saturday 26th December.
The free bet is valid on the ‘win’ market only.
The free bet is not valid on the Sportsbook.

What else do I need to know?

The free bet is not valid on Antepost or SP bets.
The stake of the Free Bet is not included in the winnings. For example if you place your £5 free bet at odds of 3.0, you will get back a maximum of £10 as the Free Bet stake is excluded.
If you use your £5 free bet to place a lay bet, you shall reduce your overall liability by £5, with any remaining liability being taken from your cash balance.
If your chosen free bet selection is a non-runner, your £5 will be recredited to you, to make another selection in the race.

When will I get my prize?

The free bet will be credited as soon as you claim it.

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Super simple strategy I am to trialling using Betfair:
Start with $1000 bankroll (you can adjust to suit your appropriate risk-appetite).
Mainly focusing on racing markets (horses, dogs) due to their very quick run times and payouts, but can be used on anything.
Lay outsiders (i.e. bet against big underdogs) anywhere in the $5-$30 odds range.
For those who aren't familiar with lay betting, this can only be done on exchanges where you have the option to bet against a particular outcome.
Aim to accumulate $500 profit.
Cash out.
Repeat.
Goal: win 3 out of 4 times (i.e. 3 x $500 profit for every 1 x $1000 loss = $500 profit).
An example would be making 10 bets at 1.04 (i.e. laying at a price of $25). If all 10 come out on top, you would have made $480 and would basically be at your cashout goal.
Why you need Betfair (or similar exchange)
You can't lay on normal books, and any short odds you find on normal books (i.e. 1.03) is usually under-priced and realistically should be higher. On betfair, assuming you are betting on a highly liquidated market (which most racing markets are) you will get 'fair' value.
Why this strategy is dumb
In the long run, odds are stacked against you. You're not making informed decisions, just hoping that a bunch of likely outcomes go your way. As mentioned above - assuming markets are highly efficient - your likeliest outcome is a net zero profit (+/- any variance).
Why I still like it
1) It provides structure akin to bankroll management. Anyone that's been in this game long enough, knows that the single biggest threat to any gambler - even the best in the world - is poor bankroll management.
2) This system has a clear-cut cashout point. Once $500 is reached, it is banked away. There's no wiggle room here.
3) It requires such little work/stress. No researching. No hours spent sweating a bet - or if you like to parlay - sweating several bets. You can get through 10 races comfortably in an hour, and then you can move on with your day.
Who cares?
Probably no one.
Request
Can someone rip the shit out of this strategy and tell me how bad it is, and why it will lose?
Thanks in advance and happy punting to everyone.

betfair exchange market

betfair exchange market - win

Small odds, easy profits

Does anyone ever bet on UK politics? There is an interesting "anomaly" in the Betfair exchange market regarding the date of Theresa May's resignation as Conservative Party Leader. Details inside.

Can someone explain why there is so much liquidity in this Betfair Exchange market?

Breaking News: Betfair Exchange Market Down for +20 mins!

100 to 400 EASY MONEY CHALLENGE

Market Makers on Betting Exchanges (Betfair/Smarkets etc.)

Trump gains ground but Biden still leads in betting markets: Betfair Exchange

Trump gains ground but Biden still leads in betting markets: Betfair Exchange

Betfair Exchange without tennis markets in Sweden

JR's UK&Ireland Horse racing Algorithmic model (11/2/2020)

Betfair exchange cash-out - what happened to my profit?

A deep dive. How to be consistently profitable. Worth the read (hopefully?)

What soft bookies will definitely limit you if you turn out to be a sharp bettor, but not without paying everything you have already made?

Bright emotions with the Si14 Betting exchange.

Betting exchange commission of 1%.

Betfair - Free £5 bet on 13:50 Sandown (Saturday)

Brexit betting exchange

The lack of a legal framework for the regulation of sports betting exchanges.

Why do we even need sportsbooks?

Betfair - Free Bet (£5) for the 15:00 Saturday Kempton Race

Who can take part?

How and when can I qualify?

What can I get?

What else do I need to know?

When will I get my prize?

Investing in Si14

Choice of sports betting exchanges.

Simple system

betfair exchange market video

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