Las Vegas Odds & Free MLB Expert Picks: Houston Astros vs
Las Vegas Odds & Free MLB Expert Picks: Houston Astros vs
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[BARR'S BETS 8/14/20] -- FREE PLAY
Good afternoon everyone, hopefully you cashed in some bets last night! If you only bet my free play, god bless you, you didn't have to watch long (lost in the first inning). That's unfortunate, brutal pitching will do that... However my VIP slate went okay last night, we should have won the Suns v. Mavs game but a bad 3rd kept us out of that one. [BARR'S BETS 8/13/20] -- VIP MODEL'S PLAYS [LOSS] [NBA] 4:05PM EST DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. PHOENIX SUNS, PICK: OVER 237 (-102) [WIN] [NBA] 4:05PM EST MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES, PICK: UNDER 229 (-104) [WIN] [MLB] 4:30PM EST TAMPA BAY RAYS VS. BOSTON RED SOX, PICK: OVER 9 (-119) [LOSS] [NHL] 5:35PM EST CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS VS. VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS, PICK: UNDER 6 (-102) [WIN] [NHL] 8:05PM EST CAROLINA HURRICANES VS. BOSTON BRUINS, PICK: UNDER 5.5 (-130) Plenty of units being won this week, looking to keep it up for a BIG Friday as we head into the weekend here. Today's slate of games for my VIP model include: [BARR'S BETS 8/14/20] [NBA] 4:05PM EST MIAMI HEAT VS. INDIANA PACERS [NHL] 6:30PM EST VANCOUVER CANUCKS VS. ST LOUIS BLUES [NBA] 6:30PM EST OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS. LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS [NBA] 9:05PM EST PHILADELPHIA 76ERS VS. HOUSTON ROCKETS [MLB] 9:10PM EST SEATTLE MARINERS VS. HOUSTON ASTROS Message me if you want my picks for the 5 games above! Feel free to sweat them or fade them. I know what you've all been waiting for, the free play of the day! Ran the simulation 1000 times, the game I'm going with tonight is: [BARR'S FREE PLAY 8/14/20] [NHL] 10:38PM EST DALLAS STARS VS. CALGARY FLAMES, PICK: OVER 5 (-135) My model has the final game's score predicted at 5 - 4, and if you do the math there, that's A LOT of goals higher than Over 5. I see some books with the line at 5.5 (if they don't give you chop outs at 5). Super good odds at 5.5 (+135 on Fanduel I believe, at time of post)... I'd consider taking it, hell I'm predicting 9 goals tonight. Those odds are concerning though, maybe they just don't have a lot of over action. I think the Stars got a bit shocked in game 1's loss to the Flames (2-3). I think they're going to come out hot tonight and if you don't like the action on the "OVER 5" then maybe consider the Stars ML which is close to even odds (~ -107). You could consider a same game parlay too, but now you're just getting greedy. My free play model is on the Over, best of luck! Let me know if you guys are interested in the VIP model's plays and let's make some money!
2019 r/basbeall Power Rankings -- Week 15: The A's Attack Continues and Washington Celebrates July 4th by Winning, the Rockies Crumble and the Brewers Slide, a Midseason Shake-Up of the Ranks -- We're Halfway There, Who is Living on a Prayer?
Hey Sportsfans--it's time for Week 15 of baseball's Power Rankings--The world is very different now. For man holds in his mortal hands, the power to abolish all forms of bias and all forms of fairness. And yet, the same revolutionary beliefs for which our forerankers fought are still at issue around the internet: the belief that the ranks of teams come not from the generosity of the voters but from the hand of God. Every voter has their own style / system and the only voting instructions are these:
"To an extent determined individually, you must take into account how strong a team is right now and likely to be going forward. You must, to some degree, give weight to the events and games of the previous week."
There were two ties!
The 7th/8th place tie and the 18th/19th tie were both broken by our second tie-breaker: run differential. TRANSPARENCY: this link will show you who voted each team where and has added neat statistics! If something is a little messed up, feel free to pester me let me know. Total Votes: 27 of 30. So close.
#
Team
Δ
Comment
Record
1
Dodgers
0
I feel like this team is in a very, very good place when a .500 week makes me feellike we had a really tough one. The Dodgers feel like they lose in bunches, then go back to winning, which can make being a fan a relatively volatile experience (that and the whole "Can't win a World Series" thing). I am ready for the break, get ready to see Joc Pederson smack some Joc Pops/Joc Jams all across Ohio, and hopefully the boys get some good rest going into the second hald
60-32
2
Yankees
0
Yankees in the ASG: Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Aroldis Chapman. Yankees at the halfway point: 4th wRC+, 6th in pitching fWAR, 2nd in rDiff. I do wish that one of those last two games against the Rays had bounced in our favor, and while Boone's bullpen usage continues to baffle me, I'm overall very pleased with the team.
57-31
3
Astros
+1
7-3 in our last 10, reaching the All-Star Break at 57-33 with a 7.5 game lead on the Athletics. Yuli Gurriel has been phenomenal with the bat, and I'm not sure if he knows how to do anything other than style his hair like a pineapple and hit home runs. Wishing Alex Bregman the best in the Home Run Derby and let's get an AL win on Tuesday night!
57-33
4
Twins
-1
The Twins enter the All-Star break with a 5.5 game lead over the Indians. The team desperately needs a rest, with the last couple weeks being a perfect storm of several key players gettiing injured, multiple marathon extra-inning games, and Cleveland going on a hot streak to close the gap. That being said, it's been a stellar first half for the Twins, breaking multiple team and MLB records. My favorite stat though is the one that shows just how resiliant we've been: The Twins' longest losing streak is still only two games, and are currently 24-8 the day after a loss.
56-33
5
Rays
0
The Rays had a winning record on the week, but it might be hard to tell with the 3 brutal extra-inning losses in a row. The good take is that it's good experience for a young team; even after coming back only to fail (in eerily similar fashions) two nights in a row against the Yanks, they were able to close out the series with a split in 2 more extremely close games. With the All-Star Break nigh, flappy fans ask: Team, I hope you're gonna buy. Also CFM leads AL ERA :)
52-39
6
Braves
0
A couple of questions after an excellent first half for the Braves. 1. Who is the real second contender in the division? Phillies have plenty of starpower but the Nationals have surged ahead. 2. Important decisions will have to be made about this roster very soon. Inciarte is coming back from his injury and there's no obvious odd-man out in the outfield. This doesn't even include Adam Duvall, who has 26 homers in AAA. Will a trade rectify it, or something else? Regardless, it's a good problem to have.
54-37
7
Atléticos
+2
We gave the Twins their first series loss of the year at the start of the week and took 2 of 3 from the Mariners in Seattle. Olson has 19 HR's in 58 games. The Matt's both ended the first half at 137 OPS+. Chapman and Hendricks are our ASG reps, and Chapman was named to the HR Derby. Anderson and Fiers deserved spots in the ASG too, but alas. The trade deadline looms.
50-41
8
Red Sox
0
While not playing against the best competition, taking 5 of the last 6 is a great way to head into the all star break. The wildcard race is shaping up to be an absolute bloodbath, and with the division all but out of reach the Sox really needed this hot stretch. The offense is playing up to snuff, but we're not going to make ground without the pitching picking up some slack. I'll miss baseball, but at least the break will give me time to construct my shrine to Devers.
49-41
9
Indians
+3
The surging Tribe swept the Royals and Reds for a perfect 5-0 week. Starting pitching, bullpen, batting, defense - all excellent. They've also halved the Twins' AL Central lead from 11 on June 14 to 5.5 headed into the break, and have the fewest losses among non-division leaders. Watch out, Twinkies, here we come!
50-38
10
Cubs
-3
It was another strange week for this strange team and division. The Cubs reach the break in first place, but they're only up half a game on the Brewers and 4.5 games on the last place Reds. This first half was underwhelming, but I think any Cubs fan would have happily accepted first place at the All Star Break when this season began. Hopefully Hamels makes a quick recovery and the rest of the team can step up until he's back.
47-43
11
Nacionales
+5
Most people rejected yousmelllikebiscuits message. They hated yousmelllikebiscuits because he told them the truth. The Nationals have been the best team in MLB since May 24 whey they were 12 games under 500. They currently hold an NL Wild Card spot and will try to reel in the Braves like Cole Trickle chasing down Russ Wheeler.
47-42
12
Rangers
-1
48-42
13
D-Backs
+2
The D-backs lost two heartbreakers against the Dodgeres before sweeping the Rockies at home. The bullpen is too bad to consider us serious contenders, but sitting a game above .500 at the All-Star break is a much better position than many envisioned for the Snakes coming into this year.
46-45
14
Brewers
-4
oh no we suck again Currently Milwaukee has the second worst record in the NL over the last 20 games (7-13). The starting pitching has continued to perform poorly, the bats are rather inconsistent, but at least Jesus Aguilar is on a bit of a hot stretch this month (.500/.538/1.333)
47-44
15
Phillies
-1
The team finished the first half with a series win vs the Mets. The key to this team has and will be the pitching, and they might have faced another blow to the rotation with Arrieta having bone spurs in his elbow with no clear cut depth to fill his spot. Both the SP and RP are in flux with injuries and lack of depth and must find stability to contend in a competitive NL Wild Card race in the 2nd half.
47-43
16
Cardenales
+1
Pretty, prettttty, prettttttty close to burning it down. Tweaks aren't going to help this team, throwing everything into the air might.
44-44
17
Padres
+1
It's disappointing to not have any representation in the home run derby, when 2 of our guys are in the top 10 in homers for all the MLB to this point. We got swept by the Giants this week, but beat LA 3/4 up there, putting us at .500 at the break for the first time since 2010
45-45
18
Reds
+2
I turned 21 this weekend, so admittedly I didn't watch a whole bunch of baseball. But it seems the entire offense has decided to disappear at the same time except for Yasiel Puig. After a fun series win against Milwaukee, the Reds were absolutely annihilated by Cleveland. Luckily, the rest of the NL Central is as confusing as we are, so they can really make it interesting if they get hot after the break.
41-46
19
Angels
0
Yadier Molina's Instagram is basically me every time I watch Cam Bedrosian pitch.
45-46
20
Rockies
-7
44-45
21
Pirates
+1
What is it about the Pirates and the week before the All-Star break? Once again, the Bucs are red-hot coming into the Midsummer Classic, winning 5 of 7 this week against the top teams in the NL Central. Suddenly, a team that seemed DOA in early June is only 2.5 games out of first, the closest the Bucs have been to the top at the All-Star break since 2015. In years past, the Pirates have seemed to lose their momentum in the off week, but they'll need to keep things going this weekend against the Cubs to stay in the 5-team race.
44-45
22
Mets
-1
First half over. We've got three quite deserving All-Stars, and about as many wins. The Díaz/Canó deal sure looks like a disappointment at the midway mark, as do the signings of Familia and Lowrie (the latter of whom will play one game for the Mets, a David Wright-style comeback in 2020). Our midseason LVP award goes to the entire bullpen. Our midseason MVP, on the other hand, probably goes to Jeff McNeil, who has proven himself to be an absolute beast of a pure hitter. Love you, Squirrel.
40-50
23
White Sox
0
Everyone keeps talking about Giolito, but Yoan Moncada is currently the 16th best player in baseball by fWAR with a ro-bust 3.2. Also, I could watch Eloy beat the Cubs for the rest of my life.
42-44
24
Gigantes
+1
The Giants amazingly surged to a 5-1 week going into the break, outscoring their opponents 43-23 in the process. A sweep of the Padres marked the team's first 3-game sweep of anybody in over a year. Will Smith is a perfect 23-for-23 in save opportunities, and should net a nice return at the trade deadline. Madison Bumgarner almost got his elbow exploded by a line drive and is hopefully healthy by the trade deadline. Heliot Ramos and Joey Bart are both in the Futures Game. At the very least, Giants baseball has somehow been interesting over the last coule weeks.
41-48
25
Mariners
-1
Danny V was snubbed for the Home Run Derby. That is All.
39-55
26
Blue Jays
+1
Since May 24th, only Mike Trout and Pete Alonso have hit the ball better than Lourdes "Pina Power" Gurriel Jr. Cavan Biggio has a better O-Swing% than anyone in baseball, including Joey Votto. Danny Jansen had an OPS of .982 over the past 30 days. With Vladito in the HR Derby, Nate Pearson throwing 102mph in the Futures Game, and Bo Bichette on the horizon, Blue Jays fans have plenty to look forward to.
34-57
27
Marlins
-1
Seeing the fish be this useless against the nats and barves sucks a mean one. On the positive side, sandy will pitch in the all star game and caleb smith looks back to normal after his first start back. Im just counting the days until Isan Diaz gets called up.
33-55
28
Royals
0
THis would be a great time for the Royals to overhaul their roster, cutting veteran players that will not be part of the future while bringing up the likes of Bubba Starling, Richard Lovelady, Jake Kalish, and Gabe Speier. Instead, Lucas Duda, Wily Peralta, and Kevin McCarthy will continue to wang chung.
30-61
29
Tigres
0
Jack Morris is making dumb comments about Miggy, Al Avila got an extension, and the team is crawling to the All Star break, having won a total of six games since the start of June. Scratch that, they are in a wheelchair headed into the All Star break. Oof. After the break, the Tigers open with a three game set at Kansas City. It'll be a barn burner.
28-57
30
Orioles
0
I am in Vegas this week so the only thing I will say is I made a huge bet on the Orioles as World Series champs in 2023. Woooooooo.
Sorry for the late one boys, life ya know ANYWAYS I think it was a good day, most of the top favorites won (or were postponed). Hopefully your streak is still going! I put my money on the tribe today and I was rewarded. Good news about this post, there are a lot of safe picks IMO, many aces are starting... So if you need 1-2 more wins for some rewards you should feel good about today. Also, I am going to bold the games I want you guys to pay close attention to, I'm not sure why 538 has certain percentages they do on games... But I think there are stronger favorites tomorrow than the top one they picked. Lets get down to it! 1.) Baltimore (31-67) @ Arizona (50-50) 538 has this game as a 68% chance for the Diamondbacks, and honestly dudes I can't tell you why. Kelly (7-9 with a 3.77) is facing off against Bundy (4-11 with a 5.28). I don't get it... If I were you I would keep reading down, but according to 538 this battle between these two inconsistent pitchers is the top favorite. Vegas is at -170 on them. 2.) Kansas City (37-64) @ Atlanta (60-41) In my opinion I think this is a better pick than the previous. We have Keuchel (3-3 with a 3.58) against Duffy (4-5 4.52). Favorite at home, with a talented pitcher on the mound... Sounds good to me. I have seen the Braves be inconsistent at times, so tread lightly here. Vegas has them at -210 and 538 is at 66% on them. 3.) Phillies (52-48) @ Tigers (30-65) ACE ALERT. We have Nola on the mound for the phillies, who is typically pretty good. He is throwing a 3.77 ERA right now, but the tigers pitcher (Boyd at 4.13) is worse. I like the phillies here, but Boyd can be good at times. This one could come down to whomever has the better game on the mound, which somewhat scares me. 538 is philly at 62% and vegas is at -140 4.) Angels (52-49) @ Dodgers (67-35) I don't like rivalry games... People may say "thEy AreNt RiValS"... But they kind of are. Maeda (7-6 with a 3.71) faces off against Pena (7-3 with a 4.92). This game could be a crap shoot. It is at Dodgers stadium so there is some silver lining, but I get burned by the Dodgers so I'm staying away. 538 is at 62% on the Dodgers and the Vegas line is -150 5.) Rockies (47-52) @ Washington (52-46) I will be going here with my pick tomorrow. Strausburg is on the mound for the Nats tomorrow (12-4 and a 3.52) and he is facing off against Lambert (2-1 6+ ERA). The first game was postponed and there is a chance this one is also (free win). Washington has been pretty good since the break, so I'll probably be here unless something better comes along. 538 is at 61% and Vegas is at -150 6.) TRIBE (58-41) @ Blue Jays (38-64) Change my mind. I'm sticking strong with my tribe. One of you is a tribe fan and told me that he always picks when there's BBC on the mound (Bieber-Bauer-Cleaver). Well dudes, Bauer is on the mound facing off against Sanchez (3-14 with a 6.26). 6.26 ERA over 100+ innings, sign me up here. This looks like a good option on paper. 538 has the tribe at 61% and Vegas is at -170. 7.) Reds (45-53) @ Brewers (53-49) ACE ALERT. Davies is on the mound for the Brewers and is throwing a 2.79 while having a record of 8-2. He will be at home facing off against Roark (5-6 3.97 ERA). The Brewers are ok at home, and they do have an ace on the mound... But these Reds are a more talented team than what their record shows IMO. I think the Brewers are safe but I'm staying away. 538 is at 58% brewers and Vegas is at -135 8.) A's (57-44) @ Astros (65-37) The A's got WORKED today. Bailey look terrible, and the Astros has two consecutive bat around innings. OOF. Astros have Miley on the mound (8-4 with a 3.25) and the A's have Fiers (9-3 with a 3.64). A's have been hot lately, and I don't want to pick against them after losing that bad... But they are away in Houston. I'd stay away. 538 is at 55% and Vegas is at -150 9.) Boston (55-46) @ Toronto (57-46) I don't feel like typing much on this one. The inconsistent Sale is on the mound and Chirinos is on for the Rays. I recommend not going here, and my wounds from Boston are still fresh. Boston has Vegas at -160 and 538 54% 10.) Marlins (36-62) @ White Sox (45-52) The match-up here is pretty even... Smith and Covey, two guys you don't know of unless you are a fan of either team face off in this epic showdown of mediocrity. That was kind of rude, but if you read all of these and have made it this far I feel the need to keep you entertained... So pick elsewhere. White Sox are at 53% and Vegas is at -130 in favor of Miami. 11.) Yankees (64-35) @ Twins (61-38) Two good teams with the slighty better one playing away. We have German vs Gibson on the mound, and this one is going to be close unless one of them completely just gets up there and throws gas. I don't like gas throwers. 538 has the Yanks at 53% and Vegas is -115 for them as well 12.) Rangers (50-49) @ Seattle (40-62) Good ole'faithful aka undecided is on the mound for the home squad, and he'll be facing off against Payano who has 1 inning pitched under his belt this season. Do I need to type any more here? 538 has Seattle at 53% and Vegas says "nah im good" 13.) Padres (47-52) @ Mets (45-54) This one could be interesting, Paddack faces off against Vargas. Paddack has shown signs of promise, but for the same reason I don't take Soraka from the Braves, I won't suggest taking Paddack either. He's young. Consistency is what separates these guys and we don't know if he is going to show up tomorrow. Vargas is terrible though, but the Mets are at home. Should be close. 538 has the Mets at 52% and Vegas is at -130 for San Diego 14.) Cards (52-47) @ Pirates (46-53) Stay away from here. Two talented and super inconsistent pitchers on the mound for both teams (Hudson and Archer). You have better odds elsewhere. 538 is at 51% for the Pirates and Vegas is at -130 15.) Cubs (54-46) @ Giants (51-50) FAIR DISCLAIMER: I will be in attendance, which means the Giants are 100% going to lose. I have been to 5 Giants games and they have lost all 5 of them. Darvish vs Mad Bum, it will be fun to watch... But not if your streak depends on it. Cubs area 51% favorite with Vegas putting the Giants at -110. Special shout out to u/Drunner17 for giving me some inside stats, dude has been a major help. There you have it boys, I hope you keep that streak up. As always, Let me know where you are at and any inside info you have tomorrow! <3
Friends, Tonight as I sat on my couch, rage mounting as I watched the most over rated and over paid baseball player in the MLB hit a walk off against the best team in baseball... I had an epiphany. In between my drunken cuss words and insults hurled at the crimson chin for ruining my streak, I realized I have this sub. Nay I realized WE have this sub. I often lie awake at night, tears running down my face, wondering what my gold sig trout would look like. Why do I subject myself to this? God knows, and therefore so do I. For I am the alpha, and the omega. These are my feelings the night before my picks. I read all of your comments “iM pIcKiNg ThE rAnGERz CaUsE oF LanCE LyNn”. I laughed at all of you and I picked the Astros. I saw all of you claiming the Jays might beat the Sox. HA You morons and your streaks, I am above that. But now, I want to know what it’s like. I want to wake up to the sight of COLLECT REWARDS. For I have no windows in my mother’s basement, and it is a good substitute for sunshine. So I say to you, tired, hungry, frustrated, and proud. Come join me. Let us walk the path of the streak together. Let us get our golds to diamonds. In the words of the great Will Ferrell, “WERE GOING STREAKING” I will be posting the Vegas odds every night, and giving my opinion on the matchups. I would appreciate help from those of you who have had the 15 streak, and when you post if you could post the longest streak you have that would be great. Let’s do this. Feel free to comment about each game, I’ll be posting comments in here pertaining to each game 1.) Giants (45-49) @ Rockies (46-48) I’m staying away from this one. The giants are so hot right now, but everything that goes up must come down. Colorado is a -170 money line. 2.) Mets (42-51) @ Twins (58-34) Twins are a good pick here. Perez is 8-3 and is pitching at home. Twins are at -160 on the money line 3.) Pirates (45-49) @ Cardinals (47-46) Not sure about this one either, it’s a -170 towards St Louis but Archer is talented, if he has a good game I doubt they lose. StL’ pitcher has thrown 30 innings as of now. I’m out 4.) Braves (58-37) @ Brewers (48-47) Its Keuchel vs Anderson. Two talented pitchers in my opinion. Unless there is a clear favorite for a team, I don't pick matchups between two decent pitchers. You'll find better odds elsewhere IMO. Even odds 5.) Reds (43-48) @ Cubs (50-44) Gray vs Darvish. Like I said above, I tend to stay away from pitching duels. These guys are definitely under-performing this season, but I'm not putting my streak on it. Cubs are at -130 6.)Mariners (39-58) @ A's (53-41) I like this one. Oakland is pitching with Bailey, and they are hot right now. Seattle has yet to announce their starter AND they are on a 5 game losing streak (if they lose tonight). I'm probably placing my streak on Oakland tonight. 7.) Rays (56-41) @ Yankees (60-33) Both of these teams are good. German is going tomorrow for NY and Chirinos is going for Tampa. Both pitchers have great stats and bats behind them. There are better odds out there. New York @ -150 8.) Dodgers (63-34) @ Phillies (49-46) I'm done with the dodgers. Go ahead and place your streak on them if you want. The best team in baseball takes Madea to face off against someone (who cares its the Phillies). Dodgers are -150 9.) Nationals (50-43) @ Baltimore (28-66) Baltimore sucks. But the Nats do sometimes as well. The pitchers aren't great (Fedde vs Brooks). They are pretty close in terms of stats, but if you feel Washington is going to pull this one off go for it. Based on record alone this seems like a better option than some others out there. Washington comes in as a high favorite -185 10.) Tigers (29-61) @ Indians (53-40) Doesn't look like they have posted the pitchers yet, Tigers are a bad team. Indians just threw a combined 1 hitter against them and I don't see them beating the Indians. The Tigers are the biggest underdogs (according to Vegas) of any other team today with the Indians at -260. 11.) Blue Jays (36-60) @ Boston (51-44) I mean they can't lost twice right? There is no way the Jays beat Boston in Boston two games in a row. But they did do it once. Sanchez vs Rodriguez (who is 10-4) face off. Boston comes in at -250 12.)Padres (45-49) @ Miami (35-57) The padres are ok, they are in Miami. Paddack goes against Richards, two similarly talented pitchers IMO and Sd has the better bats. There are probably better options out there. San Diego at -155 13.) Arizona (48-47) @ Rangers (50-45) This is a close one. I think Texas is the better team but Ray is the better starting pitcher. Could go either way or down to a single play. Again, Im staying away from here. Arizona -120 14.) White Sox (42-49) @ Royals (34-62) Nova is going against Duffy in this one. Statistically speaking Nova is having a better season, but is also because he has pitched more. Chicago looks to be the favorite. Not a big enough one however for me to pick them. KC is actually the favorite here from Vegas at -120 15.) Astros (59-36) @ Angels (49-46) Angels don't have Trout. The best player in baseball is out. Cole is also pitching for the Astros, and has been very good recently. I like the Astros in this one despite them playing away. Not to mention it looks like the Angels still haven't declared who is pitching tomorrow. I'm between these guys and Oakland.
bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for April 9, 2019 (MLB)
Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that would like to donate I also strongly suggest joining us on Flick. It’s a live chat app that allows me, and a wonderful group of people, to deal with news as it happens, talk about the slate, share lineups, and break things down in a way I simply can’t on any other medium. It is also invite only, so there are no trolls and only good, helpful people talking all different sports, all day, every day.. If you want to join us there, Download the Flick App and send me a message so I can get you an invite. That’s it! Free and easy! With that being said, let’s get into it! Early Slate Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather) Indians vs Tigers - 110pm
Jordan Zimmermann, RHP - 0-0, 13.2 IP, 0.66 ERA, 0.59 WHIP, 1 BB, 10 K
Vegas Info: 7.5, CLE -156
Weather: Clear and Warmish. Temps around 60. Winds blowing out at 15 mph. Big boost to bats
Blue Jays vs Red Sox - 205pm
Matt Shoemaker, RHP - 2-0, 14.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 3 BB, 15 K
Chris Sale, LHP - 0-2, 9.0 IP, 8.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 4 BB, 5 K
Vegas Info: 8, BOS -220
Weather: Overcast and Cool. Temps in the mid 40s. Winds blowing in at 10mph. Boost to pitchers.
Rays vs White Sox - 210pm
Charlie Morton, RHP - 1-0, 11.0 IP, 1.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 4 BB, 14 K
Ervin Santana, RHP, SEASON DEBUT
Vegas Info: 8.5, TB -152
Weather: Clear and Warmish. Temps around 60. Winds blowing out at 10mph. Small boost to bats
Pitchers Great Pitchers Corey Kluber (9400, RHP) at DET - Wow. What a steal for Kluber. I know his first 2 starts haven’t exactly lit the world on fire, but, honestly, do yourself a favor and look through ALL the game notes right now (if you know baseball). Take a look at all of those ace pitchers, and the numbers they are putting up. Kluber is not alone in his futility so far on the season. But it doesn’t matter. Like I noted about Verlander yesterday, all this does is lower this price and make people less likely to play him. He is going against a bad Detroit team. I would expect him to get back to the 7 IP, 7-8 K, with almost no hits, runs, or walks. At that price, given his immense talent, I don’t know how you don’t go all in on Kluber on this 3 game slate. You can even pair him with another good pitcher and still fit in some good bats. Charlie Morton (9000, RHP) at CWS - Morton is a great pitcher, and I think he’s going to fly under the radar a lot because he moved to TB. But he is still going to get a ton of strikeouts, and be able to limit runs and baserunners. While I wish he were more of a sure thing to get to 100 pitches, he is easily one of my favorite pitchers on this short slate. Great Pitcher??? Chris Sale (10700, LHP) vs TOR - Ah. I’m sure among people that pay really, really close attention to baseball there’s a debate brewing. Has Sale lost it? I have talked so many times now about the metaphorical cliff that a lot of pitchers fall off - where they are cy young starters one season and, as quickly as the next spring, are barely functional major leaguers. While this may seem like some kind of exaggeration, the worry is real after Sale posted the lowest Velocity of his career last start.. He only got 1 K and never got over 90 mph?? He only got 5 swinging strikes in 87 pitches? He has thrown 59 fastballs this season and gotten ZERO swings and misses?? That should concern anyone, as far as I’m concerned. But Should It??, The Boston Globe asked. Pitching coach Dana LeVangie said that Sale was throwing slower by design - he was basically just building himself up (which you can see he does every season). Former all-star Brad Lidge said that was bullshit, though, arguing the Sox have reason to be concerned. All in all, I don’t know about you, but I am still fine taking the chance on Sale. Odds are I won’t. And if I only play one lineup, I probably will not play him. But uncertainty lowers ownership and price and you could get Sale for far too cheap and low owned, especially on a 3 game slate. This one is going to come down to how much risk you want for the price. Batters Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order) Indians vs Jordan Zimmermann (RHP, @DET) - Just like a lot of really good pitchers have started out the year badly, a lot of really terrible pitchers have started out the year looking like Cy Young candidates. His first game was against a Blue Jays team, on Opening Day, that started out the season on a run of making bad pitchers look like aces. His 2nd start, though, against the Yankees was more impressive. But, if you look, Zim is someone that always starts the year off hot. He always gets worse, and I expect him to do so. Granted, you could easily play Zim in GPPs on a 3 game slate especially given how bad this Indians team has looked. But I think Zim is bad enough, I would rather take a chance on a stack then take a chance on him at 8100. Yuck. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 6 Chalk Level (1-10): 7 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini Preferred Players : Start with Ramirez (3B - 5100) then go to the top and work your way down. Red Sox vs Matt Shoemaker (RHP, TOR) - I mean, again, on a 3 game slate you can take a chance on Shoemaker, who has been as hot as fire lately. He has had 2 starts. In both of them, he went 7 IP, only allowed 2 hits, and struck out 7 and 8 batters. But when you look closer, he did it against the hapless Tigers and an Orioles team who never had a hap to begin with. On a 3 game slate, you can take a chance here as a deep GPP play, but Shoemaker is going against a Red Sox that should be able to absolutely punish him. Especially considering he is an extreme reverse splits pitcher. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 8 Preferred Stack: Full - RHB preferred Preferred Players: Martinez (OF - 5200), Bogaerts (SS - 4800), Betts (OF - 5300), Nunez (2B/3B - 4200), Vazquez (C - 3700), then start at the top Ervin Santana (6200, RHP) vs TB - Santana hasn’t been very good for awhile. I mean he was never a Cy Young caliber pitcher, but he was good. Now he isn’t. He only got 5 starts last year due to injury. Now he’s 35 and, unless you are taking the cream, 35 year olds don’t suddenly get better and less injury prone. I think Santana is going to be SUPER popular today given how cheap he is, and how high some projections have him. I think that’s a huge mistake. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 4 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Meadows (OF - 4200), Pham (OF - 4700), Yandy Diaz (1B/3B - 3900), Lowe (2B - 4500), Kiermaier (OF - 4100), Choi (1B - 4200), then whoever else starts HR CALL OF THE SLATE: I think both JD Martinez and Bogaerts go deep. But I will choose Martinez as the most likely. Today’s Slate Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather) A’s vs Orioles - 705pm
Weather: Clear and Warm. Temps in the low 60s. Winds blowing out at 18mph. Wow! SF built the park to minimize the effects of wind, though, so it doesn’t matter as much as you would think.
Matt Harvey, RHP - 0-1, 10.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 5 BB, 6 K
Vegas Info: 8.5, Pick Em
Weather: Windy and warm. Temps around 70. Winds blowing across the field, toward RF, at 18 mph.
Pitchers Great Pitchers Stephen Strasburg (9700, RHP) at PHI - Man, some of the prices for these ace pitchers is crazy. I mean, it’s kind of a relative thing for DK, right? They have one pitcher at 12k because he is far and away the best pitcher in baseball right now. You can’t really put anyone else that close to him, so everyone else is underpriced. Plus, people have to be able to fit in Coors Field bats, leading to some aces really far, far too low. I expect there’s going to be a lot of people paying for Strasburg at this price. And they should. Tomorrow is going to be one of those days where ownership percentages are EXTREMELY important, so I will do my best to get those to you some point in the afternoon in some way. But there are SO many good pitchers at way too cheap that that is ultimately going to have to be the tiebreaker. Aaron Nola (9400, RHP) vs WAS - Listen, I know neither are as good as deGrom. I know the Nats and Phillies offenses are no joke. But 9700 and 9400 for these two aces is going to make them exceedingly popular today, and for good reason. I would imagine, given the fact the Phillies is currently a better offense and Nola is cheaper, that the ownership will fall largely on Nola. And I don’t know how you don’t get all over him here for 9400. He is going to be in the top 5 for Cy Young again this year, and he is 200 more that Joey Lucchesi? Gimme a fucking break. Jacob deGrom (11600, RHP) vs MIN - Jake deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball right now. Anyone who argues with you about that has literally no legitimate argument and/or no idea what they are talking about. If you don’t know who Bob Gibson is, do yourself a favor and look up some video of Gibson pitching. He is a hall of famer and all time great. Like, some people put him in the Mount Rushmore of pitchers, and you can’t really argue with them. He was so good he forced MLB to lower the mound to remove some of the advantage the pitchers had by being raised. Well, last season by deGrom was arguably the best by a pitcher since Gibson::
Since MLB lowered the mound, became 1 of 3 pitchers to have 30+ starts, 210+ IP, and a 1.70 or lower ERA
11th pitcher in the last 100 years (including before they lowered the mound) to have an ERA of 1.70 or below
Ended the season with 29 starts allowing 3 runs of fewer, the longest single season streak in MLB HISTORY. He has now broken the multi season record, and sits at 31 and counting. That is the MLB record. Ever. No one had ever done that.
The only pitcher in the modern era (since 2000) with a sub 2.00 ERA, 260 or more Ks, 50 or fewer walks, and 10 or fewer HR allowed.
His highest ERA for any month was 2.36 in June.
Has allowed 0 or 1 runs in 64 of his 139 career starts. No one in ML History had ever done that before. Now he’s up to 66 in 141.
And now he gets a Twins team that won’t have a DH which means no Nelly Cruz. And a batting pitcher. Also, do you know how insane it is for the total of this game to be 6.5 and the Mets to be THAT favored. On top of that, he is trying to break Bob Gibson’s consecutive quality start record. Gibson had 26 which deGrom and no one else has done. With a QS today, deGrom gets to 27. I expect him to do that at far less ownership that he should have. Gerrit Cole (10500, RHP) vs NYY - Cole is the 2nd best pitcher going today. But he’s still not nearly as good as deGrom and 10 out of 10 times I will find the money to pay up for Jake. That being said, this is a Yankees lineup that has a ton of Ks in it and Cole could get you 14 K today. Considering his K/9 was 12 last season, that just means he has a slightly above average 8 IP. Zack Greinke (8900, RHP) vs TEX - Greinke is a great pitcher. He can have some really horrible games sometimes, as we saw on Opening Day when he got a stunning -5.2 DKP. But he is one of the smartest people in the game of baseball, and he knows how to bounce back which he did getting 10k in 6 IP, letting him get 27.9 DKP even though he gave up 3 ER. Like I always tell you, Ks are King. While I would rather pay up for deGrom and downgrade a bat or two, or go down from Greinke and upgrade some bats, I would definitely keep him in your MME pool if you play a bunch of lineups. GPP Plays John Means (4500, LHP) vs OAK - If you play Means, you should know that you really shouldn’t expect more than 4 IP at an absolute maximum. He has made 3 appearances out of the bullpen so far this year, including 3 days ago. So really, while they may let him get to 80 pitches again (like he did on the 31st), the odds are much, much more likely he gets 40 pitches which should be enough for 3 IP or so. If he’s good and efficient, like I said, 4. But, so far, in his 5.2 IP he has 9 K. That means that, even if he only pitches 3 IP, he could easily pay this price off while also allowing us to get some seriously expensive bats. Jakob Junis (7200, RHP) vs SEA - Junis isn’t going to win any awards this season, unless they start giving awards for the most fun name to say out loud. And even then, Adalberto Mondesi would probably beat him from this team (unless there’s an alliteration bonus, of course.) Anyway, I digress. Junis isn’t someone I love. But he has had 2 poor starts where he struck out enough people to get 18 DKP. Almost everyone else priced under 9k, with the exception of Means, is someone without any upside whatsoever. So, while he may not be the best play, he is certainly the best mid-to-low priced pitcher that will help you get some of those sweet, sweet bats in. Joey Lucchesi (9200, LHP) at SF - This is a different kind of GPP play. Normally when I say GPP play it’s someone who kind of sucks but has some upside - someone you can play but you could also stack against. But here, I mean someone who, due to price, will be completely unowned. I mean, you can read what I wrote when I was talking about Nola. Lucchesi is going to be one of the lowest owned pitchers on this slate, certainly one of the lowest actually good pitchers. So far in 10.1 IP this season he has only given up 7 hits with 13 K and 0 ER. He is going against a fucking awful SF Offense that he already got 27 DKP against. So if you want a great GPP pivot to someone no one will own but is actually completely fairly priced here, run with Lucchesi. I will sure as hell have some of him across my lineups. Freddy Peralta (9900, RHP) at LAA - This is both kinds of GPP plays! It’s both someone who is kind of bad but with amazing upside who could give you a negative score or 40 DKP and also someone who won’t be owned at all due to price. And sure, there are some batters on this Angels team that will give him fits, but you can’t deny his upside, and you can’t deny no one will be on him. No Thanks Brett Anderson (8000, LHP) at BAL - Brett Anderson isn’t nearly as bad as Marco Estrada, so I don’t expect to have much, if any, interest in Baltimore today. He also is hilariously overpriced for someone who doesn’t strike people out. So yeah. No thanks. Ross Stripling (9100, RHP) at STL - Stripling is a fine pitcher. He limits baserunners, generally. He keeps the ball on the ground, for the most part. But he doesn’t seem to strike that many people out when he’s starting. And, when he’s 300 less than Aaron Nola, you really have no reason to play him. No reason at all. Batters Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order) Mets vs Kyle Gibson (RHP, MIN) - I think this may be the first time I’ve gotten to use the Mets as a stack. They have played a lot of games against a lot of good pitchers so far, so it’s nice to see them have such a good record, and to get a chance against Kyle Gibson, who is not good. In his first, he couldn’t make it out of the 4th inning, surrendering 5 ER on 8 hits and 2 BB and only 2 K. Oh boy. He is also a normal splits pitcher, and the Mets have plenty of LH power. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 4 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Conforto (OF - 4300), Cano (2B - 3900), Alonso (1B - 4100), Nimmo (OF - 3900), McNeil (3B/OF - 4000), Ramos (C - 3800), Rosario (SS - 4000). Dodgers vs Dakota Hudson (RHP, @STL) - As I wrote in my preview, Hudson profiles as an extreme ground ball pitcher. He had a perplexing first start, though, where his sinking stuff wasn’t working. He wound up going only 4.1 innings, giving up 3 HR and 3 ER on 7 hits. He still struck out 6, making his effort serviceable. But this is a Dodgers team that’s been hitting lights out. And Hudson probably won’t make it 5 innings, even if he pitches well. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 8 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Start at the top and work your way down Astros vs Jonathan Loaisiga (RHP, NYY) - Loaisiga, apart from having a name that’s impossible for a dyslexic to get right, is someone pitching on a limited count that has trouble finding the plate. Against an Astros team that is very patient at the plate, I don’t expect this to go too well for him. The one big negative I have here is the Yankees have, far and away, the best bullpen in baseball. So even if the get to the SP, it’s not like they have dessert up next. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 6 Chalk Level (1-10): 7 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini Preferred Players: Start with Brantley (OF - 4000) first, given the SPs splits, then start at the top and work your way down Royals vs Marco Gonzales (LHP, SEA) - If you are 70+ years old and a voter for the BBWAA, you probably have 3-0 Marco Gonzalez as your front runner for the Cy Young this season. But let’s be real here - He’s had 2 games of incredible run support where he could have easily lost and 1 game where he struck out 3 in 8.1 IP but managed to have a lot of balls find a lot of fielders. Let’s see how this extreme splits pitcher does against the lefty mashing Royals How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7 Chalk Level (1-10): 4 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini Preferred Players: Whit (2B/OF - 4400), Mondesi (SS - 4800), Soler (OF - 3900), Schwindel (1B - 3800), Owings (2B/3B - 3800), Maldonado (C - 2900) Rockies vs Max Fried (LHP, ATL) - Oh man. I love the Mets, but this stack takes the cake. If you read my analysis from yesterday, I linked an awesome article about how different pitches are affected by Coors Field. Long story short, sliders good, curveballs and changeups bad. Well Fried is a 3 pitch pitcher, a 4 seamer he throws 60% of the time. It has a slight sink to it, but that will be muted by Coors Field as well. He then has a curveball he throws 30% of the time. It’s a massive, beautiful, sweeping curve that won’t work at Coors. His 3rd pitch is a changeup he throws the rest of the time (10% or so). Uh oh. I hope he can live off of 1 pitch. And I hope he doesn’t mind that Arenado and Story are 2 of the best hitters against LHP in the MLB. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 10 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Start with Story (SS - 5100) and Arenado (3B - 5300), who are both underpriced, and then work your way from the top. Blackmon is a great way to separate yourself, and he does fine against LHP. Desmond (OF - 4300) and Reynolds (1B - 4200) also destroy LHP Braves vs German Marquez (RHP, @COL) - If you pay attention to a lot of baseball/DFS analysts, people just don’t grasp how significant splits are. Not just hitter splits, but a bunch of other splits too. For example, you can see if someone is better at home or away, or in the first half or 2nd half. We can see that Marquez is someone who can be crushed by LHB and is really bad at home. Oh boy do I have some bad news for Marquez when he looks at this lineup and where he is right now. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 10 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHP preferred Preferred Players: Freeman (1B - 5100), Inciarte (OF - 4300), Markakis (OF - 4000), Albies (2B - 4700) then anyone else. Everyone is way too cheap for COL Dbacks vs Mike Minor (LHP, TEX) - As I have noted several times now, Mike Minor is not a good pitcher. Sure he had an inexplicable incredible game against the Astros last time up, getting almost 30 DKP on 7 IP. But before that, on opening day, he had -0.3 DKP against the Cubs, giving up 6 ER in 4.2 IP. I would expect more of the Cubs performance against this Dbacks team that can really destroy LHB as well. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 5 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini Preferred Players: Jones (OF - 4000), Marte (2B/OF - 4200), Flores (1B/2B - 4300), Walker (1B - 4200), Ahmed (SS - 4000), Murphy (C - 3400), Peralta (OF - 4300) Padres vs Derek Holland (LHP, @SF) - Derek Holland is another bad major league pitcher who has had a couple decent games to start off the year. That doesn’t mean I’m going to fall to recency bias, though. I know who Holland is. And I can also this Padres lineup and see how absolutely disgusting they are against LHP. Like, one of the best in the game. And no one is on them. Good for us! Also look at how cheap they are. Double bonus! How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 8 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: I would prioritize people thusly - Machado (3B - 4400), Reyes (OF - 4100), Myers (OF - 4300), Renfroe (OF - 4300), Tatis (SS - 4000), Hedges (C - 3700), then anyone else Brewers vs Matt Harvey (6000, RHP) - Matt Harvey is one of the worst pitchers in baseball now and we should jump to stack against him anytime we can, especially with LHB. Period. Sometimes it is that simple. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 10 Preferred Stack: Full - LHB preferred Preferred Players: Yelich (OF - 5300), Shaw (1B/3B - 4200), Moustakas (2B/3B - 4200), Grandal (C - 4200), Thames (1B/OF - 4300), then whoever else. But those are the most important plays One-Off Batters Paul DeJong (SS - 3900) - Like with Mancini yesterday, when you have a reverse splits pitcher going against a hitter with extreme reverse splits, and it lines up, you have a stew goin’ baby!!! That’s DeJong today. He is going to have a very good today. I also love Goldie (1B - 4600), but SS is a much thinner position and DeJong is so cheap for a 3 hitter. HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Michael Conforto Ahh. it’s 3am. Plenty of time to get started on an 11 game slate for the NBA where everyone is going to be resting. Sigh. Best of luck today all!!!
Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that would like to donate I also strongly suggest joining us on Flick. It’s a live chat app that allows me, and a wonderful group of people, to deal with news as it happens, talk about the slate, share lineups, and break things down in a way I simply can’t on any other medium. It is also invite only, so there are no trolls and only good, helpful people talking all different sports, all day, every day.. If you want to join us there, Download the Flick App and send me a message so I can get you an invite. That’s it! Free and easy! With that being said, let’s get into it! Early Two Game Slate Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather) Rays vs White Sox - 210pm
Carlos Rodon, LHP - 1-1, 11.1 IP, 1.59 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 2 BB, 15 K
Vegas Lines: 7.5, TB -141
Weather: Partly Cloudy. Warm. Temps around 60. Winds light.
Projected Lineups (L/S refers to Handedness of the Batter // Splits - EN = Extreme Normal, N = Normal, 0 = No splits, R = Reverse, ER = Extreme Reverse, RHB = Switch Hitter better as a RHB. LHB = Switch Hitter better as a LHB. // Pitcher information is about pitching not how he hits.) Tampa Bay Rays
Name
DK Position
Price
L/S
Splits
Yandy Diaz
1B/3B
3600
R
R
Tommy Pham
OF
5100
R
0
Daniel Robertson
2B/3B
3800
R
N
Avisail Garcia
OF
4300
R
N
Mike Zunino
C
3900
R
ER
Kevin Kiermaier
OF
4200
L
EN
Guillermo Heredia
OF
3300
R
EN
WIlly Adames
SS
3300
R
R
Christian Arroyo
3B
3400
R
0
Blake Snell
SP
10900
L
0
Chicago White Sox
Name
DK Position
Price
L/S
Splits
Leury Garcia
OF
3500
S
0
Tim Anderson
SS
3700
R
N
Jose Abreu
1B
4200
R
0
Welington Castillo
C
3300
R
EN
Yoan Moncada
3B
4500
S
LHB
Eloy Jimenez
OF
4600
R
?
Yonder Alonso
1B
3700
L
N
Jose Rondon
2B/SS
3300
R
0
Adam Engel
OF
3100
R
0
Carlos Rodon
SP
6200
L
R
Analysis Well, this game gives us the clear #1 pitcher on a 2 game slate with reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell starting for the Rays. He is someone you can play every time he takes the mound and, especially in a limited slate like this, the question of what you should do is going to be one of game theory. There is no reputable source that will tell you anything other than that Snell is, far and away, the best play here. Everyone else will know that too. And he’s not priced in a way that makes finding bats impossible, meaning he is going to be 80% owned in some places. So what do you do?? Well, you have 3 options. I often talk about this in regards to the NBA, but the same thing really does apply to SPs in MLB. You can either:
Play him with the field and hope he pitches a normal game and crushes it. This would mean finding a way to separate yourself elsewhere, either by not stacking, taking an unpopular stack (like the Pirates), or taking the lowest owned pitcher (I would assume that is Taillon) to pair with him.
Fade him and try to find value at other places. This would mean taking a chance on Taillon and Rodon and making a point of stacking the White Sox, to further distinguish yourself from the field. Especially on a 2 game slate like this, if a pitcher is overwhelming chalk and you don’t plan on playing him, it makes sense to stack against him as added leverage against the field. I mean, you’re not playing him means, generally, you think points can be had. So find them and have them.
You just put together the best lineup you can and who gives a shit about ownership projections. Because you win a tournament by having the highest score, not by being the cutest or having the lowest owned player.
I think Rodon is also a good play. When you take a look at the projected TB lineup, they lead off with a reverse platoon RHB, already putting them at a disadvantage. While I totally think you can take a mini stack (or one-offs) with Pham (especially), Robertson, and Garcia, I think Rodon will have his way with the rest of the lineup. I will add 2 things here: It is a perfectly viable strategy to play a pitcher AND batters against him when the slate gets this small. While I don’t advise it on larger slates, it is perfectly viable when the options are so thin. If you want to play Rodon AND Pham you absolutely 100% can. Second, If you play Snell and Taillon, I totally think it’s possible to expand the mini stack to a normal sized one by adding Heredia and Adames. Pirates vs Cubs - 220pm
Jon Lester, LHP - 1-0, 12.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 5 BB, 10 K
Vegas Info: N/A
Weather: Partly Cloudy and Warm. Temps around 60. Light winds blowing out.
Projected Lineups (L/S refers to Handedness of the Batter // Splits - EN = Extreme Normal, N = Normal, 0 = No splits, R = Reverse, ER = Extreme Reverse, RHB = Switch Hitter better as a RHB. LHB = Switch Hitter better as a LHB. // Pitcher information is about pitching not how he hits.) Pittsburgh Pirates
Name
DK Position
Price
L/S
Splits
Kevin Newman
2B/SS
3400
R
?
Starling Marte
OF
4700
R
R
Francisco Cervelli
C
3500
R
0
Josh Bell
1B
4100
S
LHB
Jung-Ho Kang
3B/SS
4300
R
ER
Melky Cabrera
OF
3500
S
0
Pablo Reyes
2B/OF
3500
R
?
Erik Gonzalez
SS
3400
R
ER
Jameson Taillon
SP
8800
R
N
Chicago Cubs
Name
DK Position
Price
L/S
Splits
Ben Zobrist
2B/OF
3500
S
0
Kris Bryant
3B/OF
5000
R
EN
Anthony Rizzo
1B
5000
L
N
Javier Baez
SS
5300
R
EN
Kyle Schwarber
OF
4900
L
N
Willson Contreras
C
4300
R
EN
Daniel Descalso
2B
3700
L
0
Jon Lester
SP
7600
L
ER
Jason Heyward
OF
3900
L
0
Analysis I have been talking up Taillon since the very first time I talked about the Pirates. This kid is a legit ace-caliber pitcher. While he hasn’t had one of his ace-caliber starts this year, he did show marked improvement between the two starts, and I expect more improvement going into this game. I also think he will be the lowest owned due to both his price and the matchup with the Cubs. Which is scary, sure. But they are not the Red Sox or Yankees, and they can be had. Especially by someone like Taillon who can get strikeouts, has great control, and can keep the ball on the ground. If you wanna go with what I assume is the most chalky stack on this small slate, I would prioritize the LHB on the Cubs so Zobrist/Descalso, Rizzo, Schwarber and, if you hate yourself, Heyward. He had his best game of the year already. Now I can ignore him for a few months while he eats up ownership and puts up a bunch of 0s or 3s. I will also add that I’ve made it a point in taking some bats against Lester. He is an OK pitcher now, sure, but he is vastly overrated by the field both for his name and cause of the team he is on. I expect he will be the 2nd most popular pitcher on the slate by far. He is also someone who shows EXTREME reverse splits, meaning we can actually give a bump to Lester since he will be seeing 9 righties, including the pitcher. Still, I will take a chance on some Pirates bats considering the prices and where I expect the field will be. I would just start at the top and try to fit in whoever you can. Ultimately this whole slate will come down to who you choose at pitcher, and that will come down, in part, to your philosophy. Today’s Slate Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather) Athletics vs Orioles
Marco Estrada, RHP - 0-0, 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 4 BB, 7 K
Andrew Cashner, RHP - 1-1, 10.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 7 BB, 6 K
Vegas Info: 9, OAK -136
Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Warm. Temps in the 70s. Winds blowing out at 8mph.
Weather: Partly Cloudy. Temps in the mid 70s. Winds blowing out at 4mph.
Pitchers Great Pitchers Masahiro Tanaka (8700, RHP) at HOU - This price is insulting for someone with the consistency that Tanaka has. I know that the Astros are one of the most dangerous offenses in the league, but I also know that I don’t give a shit when a pitcher is as good as Tanaka (or, as we will see on the other side of the game, Verlander). As I have noted every time I have talked about Tanaka - what beats him is himself. He has the stuff, when it’s on and he can control it, to beat any team in the league, any day, and make them look like little leaguers. It really is filthy. If he stuff is working today, he will get more than 1 K per inning, not allow a walk, and keep the runs down, even if some hits get through. Justin Verlander (10400, RHP) vs NYY - Verlander is coming off a bad start in Texas, which is awesome. It lowered his price 1100 bucks, and 600 under where it started on Opening Day. That means we get cheap Verlander! Plus, people who don’t understand how baseball works will look at his log, see one bad game, and get off him, thereby lowering what should be astronomical ownership. Or they will see the Yankees and get worried. But it’s Verlander. If you play this slate out 100 times, he will get 25 DKP against the Yanks more often than he doesn’t. Don’t be foolish. Don’t overthink it. Even Cy Young pitchers have a bad start sometimes (except deGrom). And while he may have one again, odds are he won’t. So get on him at way, way too cheap a price. Hyun-Jin Ryu (9600, LHP) at STL - I like Ryu a lot. I think he’s a great pitcher, for sure. I just don’t think there’s any way in hell I am paying 9600 when Verlander is 800 more. That’s just stupid. That being said, stupid wins a LOT of tourneys. So if you do MME, make sure you are taking some lineups with Ryu instead of Verlander (or even paired with, if you like some cheap stacks). That being said, Ryu is an extreme reverse splits pitcher who will be going against a lineup almost full of RHB, which is a huge boost for him. Great Spots Eric Lauer (7500, LHP) at SF - On opening day, I strongly recommended Lauer when he was 5600. I explained how he matches up really well against this poor Giants team. As a reverse splits lefty, he really is set to avoid almost every main problem he could face, which is how he got 6 IP with 4 hits allowed, 0 runs, 1 BB, 3 Ks and 20.5 DKP. While he’s almost 2k more expensive now, he’s still a good play, and I still expect him to put up around the same 20 DKP or so in this matchup. Granted, that puts him under several other pitchers on this slate, but I will still have my shares of Lauer tonight. GPP Plays Julio Teheran (5800, RHP) at COL - If you want a real cheap GPP play, boy have a got one for you. If you like getting deep into analysis, I strongly recommend reading this article about pitch type and how they are affected by Coors Field. If you don’t want to read the whole thing, basically, the 2 pitches that see the least change in effectiveness are the slider and the 4 seam fastball. Well, he throws his 4 seamer 42% of the time and his slider 22% of the time as it is. In Coors, I am sure he will take out the Curveball, that you can’t use there, and increase his slider usage. That will be good for him, as his slider evoked a 22.9% swinging strike rate and a .143 batting average against. Coors Field effects different pitchers differently. Some pitchers can deal with it. At 5800 and no ownership, I have no problem taking a chance on Teheran. Kyle Freeland (6200, LHP) vs ATL - Oh man am I going to get shit for this. I am putting both pitchers in the Coors Field game in the GPP section. But the fact is Freeland is as an effective pitcher in Coors Field as he is outside of it. If you read the article I just posted in the Teheran section, you will see that 4 seamers and Sliders are the way to go. Well Freeland throws his 4 seamer about 40% of the time and his slider about 30% of the time. And, again, that is taking into account that he may change this rate in and out of Coors. I look at Freeland’s logs, as well. Game 1 of the season against the Marlins - priced at 9000, he gets 25.4 DKP. Game 2 against the Rays - price falls 1100 to 7900, he gets 22.3 DKP. Now his price falls again to 6200. How much you wanna bet he still gets 20 DKP? Jhoulys Chacin (8100, RHP) at LAA - Chacin profiles very much like Teheran - a pitcher that can get a lot of Ks, can get absolute murder on RHB, but has a lot of trouble against LHB. The difference between the 2 is that Chacin throws his slider 45% of the time, and it is NASTY, which makes him REALLY nasty to RHB. But extra vulnerable to LHB. Still, this lineup is mostly Rs with only a couple of really good LHB we would have to worry about. While he is pretty expensive, I also expect him go get 20 or so DKP. Also, the Coors Field effect here is named Mike Trout, who will get a HR regardless of how nasty his slider is and how many feet off the plate it breaks. No Thanks Marco Estrada (7300, RHP) at BAL - Marco Estrada is a bad pitcher that doesn’t strike people out and gives up a ton of HR. But Baltimore is awful. There is ONE bat on the O’s that I almost consider a lock, but, otherwise, I don’t want anything from him or the other O’s bats. Batters Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order) Athletics vs Andrew Cashner (OAK) - There are very few sure things in life - death, taxes, and stacking against O’s pitchers. Andrew Cashner is their ace, but is the most hittable. He may have thrown 100 but, when you don’t have great control and the ball doesn’t move, it doesn’t matter how fast you throw in the bigs. People will catch up to it and make you pay. And that has been the story of Cashner’s career. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 6 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Piscotty (OF - 4700) and Davis (OF - 5200) are my favorite plays here, but you can start at the top and work your way down against Cashner Phillies vs Anibal Sanchez (WAS) - Anibal Sanchez is the 5th starter for the Nats, but he really doesn’t deserve that job. He had a 2nd wind year last season with the Braves, but it was smoke and mirrors. In his first start against this same Phillies team, he got 4 IP and gave up 4 hits, 4 ER, 4 walks and 3 Ks and it would have been worse if he hadn’t been hit by a comebacker and taken out. I will also note that he is a reverse splits pitcher, and the wind will be blowing out How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 6 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Start with Rhys Hoskins (1B - 4700) and then go to the top and work your way down. Nationals vs Vincent Velasquez (RHP, @PHI) - Velasquez was a pitcher with a lot of promise when he came up for the Phils. He has always managed to keep his K totals high, but he never was able to find the control you need to make it to the next level in the big leagues. Because of that, he is prone to leaving the ball out over the plate, or missing it altogether. I should also note Vince has only gotten to pitch one inning so far this year, as he has been the long man in the bullpen (since the Phillies didn’t need 5 starters until now.) So, yeah, not a ringing endorsement if I do say so myself. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 4 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Eaton (OF - 4000), Soto (OF - 4800), Rendon (3B - 4200), Gomes (C - 3500), Robles (OF - 4000), then take your pick if you wanna fit someone else. Dodgers vs Miles Mikolas (RHP, @STL) - If you have been following my MLB articles since the beginning of the season, or beforehand when I did the previews, let me first say thank you!. I really do value you taking the time to read the work I put out. I hope you enjoy reading my stuff as much as I enjoy writing it for you. Second, I have been on a quest to stack each and every time I can against Mikolas. I have been harping on it since the preseason and nothing is going to change here. When you are an extreme, EXTREME control pitcher that doesn’t strike people out, and you are getting lucky, eventually that luck runs out. And, as I often say, if you are not absolutely perfect, you aren’t going to be functional. It is way, way more profitable to bet against someone being perfect then to bet on them being flawless. And we have seen that so far against a potent Milwaukee and a not-so-potent Pirates offenses. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 5 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Everyone and their grandmas if they become available on DK tomorrow for some reason. I would find it hard not to lock in Bellinger (1B - 4900) and Muncy (1B/3B - 4300). Especially Muncy at that price, and while everyone else will be looking to Colorado. Royals vs King Felix (RHP, SEA) - Felix had a great first start for him, and he struck out only 4 in 5.1 IP. He wound up not walking anyone, which was nice. But he still gave up 7 hits and 3 runs (1 ER). I just don’t think Felix has it anyone. You know I’ve talked about how he has fallen off the cliff and, while it’s possible he figured out how to not be a power pitcher in the offseason, the odds are he is going to keep getting smashed most of the time. Even though this isn’t the best Royals team, they still have some great pieces we can take a chance on. Especially LHB How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 6 Chalk Level (1-10): 3 Preferred Stack: Mini Preferred Players Whit (2B/OF - 4500), Mondesi (SS - 4800), O’Hearn (1B - 3900) or Duda (1B - 4100), Soler (OF - 3900) Mariners vs Homer Bailey (RHP, @KC) - Homer Bailey won’t have a job for long. Well, I mean, I’m sure he’ll have a job, it just won’t be a pitcher for a major league baseball team. There is a reason he is priced that low. And even that is far too high for him. He is a trainwreck of a horrorshow and I wouldn’t be surprised if his first start of the year is, by far, his best one. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 8 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Start with Bruce (OF - 4200) then go back to the top and work your way down Braves vs Kyle Freeland (LHP, @COL) - Given how Kyle Freeland pitches, there are very few Braves I am interested in playing. Anyone listed here is also a fantastic one-off play as well. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 10 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - Only these Players: Preferred Players: Donaldson (3B - 5000), Acuna (OF - 5500), Albies (2B - 5200), Camargo (3B/OF - 4500), Flowers (C - 4100). If those 5 don’t all play, I will not play a 5 man stack from ATL. Padres vs Madison Bumgarner (LHP, @SF) - MadBum has looked OK in his first 2 starts, but still not like the dominant Cy Young pitcher he had been a couple of years ago before injury and age. On Opening Day, he pitched well against this Padres team, going 7 IP, striking out 9, walking 1, giving up 5 hits, including 1 HR, and 2 ER. in his next start, he threw a ball away that resulted in an error, or else he would have surrendered upwards of 5 ER, which would have tanked his stats. But that’s how baseball works. If you don’t pay attention, you don’t realize that he still gave up 5 runs, including a massive HR, and 2 walks and only 4 K in 6 IP. While I can understand not wanting to stack against MadBum like I will, I certainly won’t pay almost 10k for him and I advise you not to either. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7 Chalk Level (1-10): 2 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini Preferred Players: Machado (3B - 4200), Renfroe (OF - 3900), Franmil Reyes (OF - 3900), Tatis (SS - 3900), Myers (OF - 4200) Brewers vs Trevor Cahill (RHP, @LAA) - Cahill is a mediocre pitcher. I mean he’s hit or miss really. It depends on the lineup. If he is going a lineup that has, say, a fuckload of LHB that can mash HRs at a ridiculous clip, he’s probably going to have a really, really bad day. Oh look, here come the Brewers who now get to use Thames at DH!! Poor, poor Trevor Cahill. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 5 Preferred Stack: Full - LHB Preferred Preferred Players: Yelich (OF - 5300), Shaw (1B/3B - 4200), Moustakas (2B/3B - 4400), Eric Thames (1B/OF - 4300), Grandal (C - 4200) One-Off Batters Trey Mancini (1B/OF - 4200) - While the fact he’s been swinging a hot bat is a positive, I would want some shares of Mancini regardless. Estrada is a severe reverse splits pitcher, meaning he is WAY worse against RHB. Trey Mancini is a reverse splits hitter, meaning he is better against RHP. While you can also take your chance with Nunez (1B - 4100), I think Trey Mancini is close to a slam dunk today. I will be building my lineups 5/2/1 or 4/3/1 to make sure I have the ability to fit Mancini in as a one-off, no matter what. The dual-position eligibility is a huge bonus as well. Altuve (2B - 4700) and Aledmys Diaz (2B/SS - 3600) - While I only Altuve in my current projected Astros lineup for tomorrow, if they are smart and play Diaz as well, I will have them both. This is a question of an extreme reverse splits pitcher going against reverse splits righties. That’s like 2 waves meeting each other and making the amplitude bigger, even though the wavelength stays the same. PHYSICS, BITCHES. Carpenter (3B - 4200) - When a lefty has as severe reverse splits as Ryu, you bet I am going to try to get a share or two of Carpenter in there. I know Carpenter is an extreme normal splits hitter, so this doesn’t line up nearly as well as the other one offs I have listed so far, but it’s still cheap and worth a chance, especially since no one else is going to play him a L/L matchup, but he’s still leading off. Blackmon (OF - 5200) and Dahl (OF - 5100)- The one thing with Teheran is he already has a huge problem getting LHB out. I think he should be able to work through the many, many RHB in this lineup, but these 2 LHB should give him extra trouble. Teheran likes to use the 2-seamer and the change against LHB since the slider breaks in and would generally be less effective. Unfortunately, changeups and 2 seamers are 2 of the pitches that do much worse in Coors so I expect him to struggle against these 2. They will either walk every time they are up or hit HRs. Renfroe and Reyes - Both of these dudes hit LHP like they were future hall of famers. Seriously. If every pitcher the Padres went against was a southpaw, these dudes would be all-stars. So don’t ignore them just because it’s 75% of a MadBum pitching against them. Even if you don’t want to go to a mini stack of Padres, get some Renfroe and Reyes in there. Especially with Mancini, these 3 are reason enough to leave space for a one-off in your lineups today. Oh nelly. Bour (1B - 4100) - With Chacin an extreme splits pitcher and Bour an extreme splits hitter, lining up against each other, I predict great things for Bour today. Even if you don’t wanna pay up for Trout, or go to the rest of this lineup (which I don’t really recommend), Bour looks super sweet today. HR CALL OF THE SLATE: There are so many. Franmil Reyes Ok. That is a full MLB day. Without an NBA slate to worry about, I got to get a little deeper in, though still not nearly as deep as I wanted, given that I had to write about the 14 gamer until 230 pm and then finally get some sleep. Anyway, best of luck today everyone!! I am almost finished with my website. The article will still be free, and posted here, for as long as I am working for myself. If you took down a GPP thanks to my help, feel free to send me a DM here or an @ on twitter to be added to the site’s hall of fame! The site will have a membership that will provide, as far as I am concerned, what will be the best projections in MLB (and eventually NBA). I will work on them with my stat guy until they are perfect. We are going to account for things other people ignore because they are too much work. It’s going to be amazing. I am also going to be doing a daily video that will be a Q and A as well as a way for me to go deeper into everything, and discuss more of who I love or hate and why, since I can’t mention everyone due to Reddit’s character limits. As it stands now, I am almost at 30k and the limit is 40k and it was half a slate. God I love baseball.
bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for April 7th, 2019 (MLB)
Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that would like to donate I also strongly suggest joining us on Flick. It’s a live chat app that allows me, and a wonderful group of people, to deal with news as it happens, talk about the slate, share lineups, and break things down in a way I simply can’t on any other medium. It is also invite only, so there are no trolls and only good, helpful people talking all different sports, all day, every day.. If you want to join us there, Download the Flick App and send me a message so I can get you an invite. That’s it! Free and easy! With that being said, let’s get into it! Main Slate Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather) Twins vs Phillies - 105pm
Jose Berrios, RHP - 1-0, 14.7 IP, 1.84 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 1 BB, 14 K
Matt Strahm, LHP - 0-1, 2.2 IP, 16.88 ERA, 4.12 WHIP, 3 BB, 2 K
Adam Wainwright, RHP - 0-0, 4.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 4 BB, 3 K
Vegas Line: 9, Pick Em
Weather: Partly Cloudy and Hot. Temps around 80 by the end of the game. Winds blowing out at 13mph. Nice boost to hitters.
Pitchers Great Pitchers (w/ Ownership Projections) Jose Berrios (10100, RHP) at PHI - Berrios is an amazing pitcher. Even last game, when he looked about as bad as he could, he still got you 7 IP with 7 H, 0 BB and 3 ER. While you don’t want to pay 10k for that, it also isn’t bad enough it will eliminate you from cashing (like a negative score from an ace would). I would expect him to have a better time of it in much better weather, going against a Phillies team that has some strikeouts in it. This would get even better if the Phillies play a “Sunday lineup” where they rest a couple of their big stars. Max Scherzer (11900, RHP) at NYM - Remember like 4 days ago when one of the aces was 10400 and I said “soon they will be 12k-13k and we will fondly look back on those halcyon days”? Well that came a lot faster than I thought. While you can play Scherzer any time he pitches, playing him means you either have to punt a pitcher, or play some weak ass bats. It’s going to take some real value to open up tomorrow morning when the lineups come out for us to put together a really fantastic lineup with Scherzer without punting. Still, he’s one of the best pitchers in the game, consistently, and you have to pay a premium for premium quality. Zack Wheeler (9000, RHP) vs WAS - I will keep fighting for how good Zack Wheeler is. He was the 2nd best pitcher in baseball after the all star break last season. He has incredible talent and, against a Nats lineup without, at least, Trea, I expect him to far exceed his previous outing, There’s a reason this game has an O/U of 6.5. There aren’t going to be a ton of runs score. You can get a great pitcher for pretty cheap, especially considering he’s the 6th most expensive SP on this slate and the odds are pretty good he’s not the 6th highest scoring. Mike Clevinger (9900, RHP) vs TOR - This might be one of the last times this season we can get Clevinger under 10k. It’s not MUCH under 10k, sure. But technically correct is the best type of correct after all. In my preview, I talked about how he is a dominant pitcher that strikes out a ton of people. Well in 7 IP in his first start, he only gave up 1 hit and struck out 12. Hot damn. He might have the highest score on the slate when all is said and done, and he’s 2k cheaper than Scherzer. Brad Peacock (8800, RHP) vs OAK - While he didn’t show it in his first start, Peacock is a dominant, high strikeout pitcher. While this is a powerful As lineup, it also strikes out the 2nd least in the MLB this season. I’m sure that’s going to slightly lower his upside but then you realize that he only got 5 K in 6.2 IP last start and he still got you 26 DKP. Peacock may not be the safest of the great pitchers, but he has just as high a ceiling, at the cheapest price. Good Pitchers Marcus Stroman (7100, RHP) at CLE - I am not prepared to put Stroman in the Great tier, but he sure has looked it so far. Even with a relatively poor outing last game against the O’s, he pitched around not having his best stuff and still managed to put his team in a position to win. So far he has been putting up about a K an inning, and he gets to take on a floundering Indians offense. At this price, I will take a chance he gets you the 20 DKP you would be really happy with, knowing he really has the upside for 30 DKP. Something you really won’t find in a lot of people at this price. Chris Archer (9300, RHP) vs CIN - I will start this off by saying that Archer would be a much, much better play if he was cheaper. On this slate, there are a lot of other plays that could really hit, and Archer is priced more than a LOT of them. Sure he had a great first start against STL, giving up only 2 hits, with 3 BB in 5 IP striking out 8. But I can get 20 DKP from someone priced 7k. Still, that being said, Archer is a good pitcher against a poor lineup that has some strikeouts in it. So if you want to go there, or make sure you get some in your MME, I am all for it. I just think there’s better options for the price. Great Spots Domingo German (9400, RHP) at BAL - In my Preview, I talked about how German is a high strikeout pitcher that has a hard time keeping people off base otherwise. He gives up a bunch of walks, especially, inflating his WHIP. We saw this exact thing in his first start when he went 5 IP and walked 5, striking out 7, but only giving up 1 hit and 0 ER. While this may pose a larger issue against more seasoned lineups, he should have no problem with a poor Orioles team that isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. He’s expensive, but he has incredible upside. If he could not walk everyone, we could see him get 7 IP and 10+ K here. Sean Newcomb (8700, LHP) vs MIA - I don’t like Newcomb that much. I WILL like him in the future, but he just isn’t there yet. If you read my article on the 1st, when he got his first start of the year, I talked about how he just gives up too many walks and hits. He gets Ks, sure, but he can’t get out of his own way, and he has a ton of trouble finding his control. Well, against the Cubs that day, it took Newcomb 91 pitches to get through 4 IP. He walked 4, gave up 4 hits, and struck out only 3. He somehow didn’t allow a run, though. And that was against the Cubs. If he could find slightly more control, imagine what he could do against this Marlins team?? GPP Plays Brad Keller (7200, RHP) at DET - Keller is someone who will strikeout less than 9 per 9, but he has incredible ground ball stuff. He showed that on both opening day and in his last start when he induced 10 ground ball outs with 5 Ks. The difference was, in his 2nd start, he couldn’t find his control and he walked 4 batters, which, as is often the case, led to runs. If he can work the strike zone and keep his pitches down in the zone again, he could have another 25+ DKP day against a decent-but-not-great Tigers squad. It’s not the safest play by any means, but it is certainly worth a GPP chance given the price, and what playing him will open up (even though he is more expensive than Stroman somehow). Caleb Smith (7900, LHP) at ATL - The Braves are a good offense. I can’t deny that. But Caleb Smith is a really good pitcher. If you watched his start against the Mets (which I did), you saw someone with just easy strike out stuff that is murder on LHB and isn’t too much easier against RHB when his breaking stuff is on. This will help to somewhat neutralize Freeman and Markakis, and it pushes McCann and Inciarte out of the lineup. While there are some cheaper folks I like a little better, he is still a hell of a GPP play with incredible K upside no one else will be on. Matthew Strahm (6400, LHP) at STL - I was all over Strahm in his first start. If you go back and read, you can see why. Dude was dominant coming up, has killer stuff, and was in a fantastic matchup. Of course, the first start is always a tough one and he got flamed. I mean 5 ER in 2.2 IP with 3 BB and 8 Hits. It was HORRIBLE. But, that being said, I will go right back there today as a GPP play. Nothing I wrote last time is any less true, he just had a horrible go of it last time. I will bet on him living up to his talent level a little more. I mean, when someone that was 9200 is 6400 the next start, there is some ability to really get yourself over the field in GPPs by riding the wave of recency bias. No Thanks Kyle Hendricks (7000, RHP) at MIL - Hendricks is a great real-life pitcher, but he doesn’t strike anyone out. While we may be able to use him on other, smaller slates, we don’t want to go there on a slate with this many games, even at this price, especially against a tough Brewers offense. Batters Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order) Yankees vs David Hess (RHP, @BAL) - I don’t really care that the Blue Jays made David Hess look like a Cy Young winner his last time out. They did that against a lot of bad pitchers to start the season off. Last year Hess had a WHIP of 1.38 and a H9 of 1.9 with a K/9 of 6. He should get eaten up here. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 9 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: After Judge (OF - 5600), start at the top and work your way down. Twins vs Zach Eflin (RHP, @PHI) - Zach Eflin is a very underrated pitcher. He showed what he could do to a righty heavy lineup last game against the Nats when he struck out 9 in 5 IP, giving up 0 runs. The problem is the Twins are projected to have 5 lefties tomorrow, some of which can do real damage. While I expect Eflin to be relatively popular at this price, the smarter play is to take the LHB against him in a smaller stack. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 4 Preferred Stack: Mini - LHB Preferred Players: Kepler (OF - 4200), Polanco (SS - 4000), Rosario (OF - 4300), Marwin Gonzalez (3B - 4100), Castro (C - 3400) Royals vs Tyson Ross (RHP, @DET) - The last time Tyson Ross was in the AL, he was a member of the Texas Rangers in 2017 where he was so horrible at the beginning of the year, he only got 10 starts before they pulled him altogether. He had a 6.18 FIP and 1.837 WHIP. His BB/9 was 6.8. While last season he got that down, it was down to 3.7 which is still awful. And pitching in SD and STL are going to be a lot different than moving back to the AL. It’s also worth noting that his bread and butter is his slider, which makes him devastating to RHB, but also makes him an extreme splits pitcher, giving up a BA/OPS of .176/.565 to RHB and .294/848 to LHB last season. And that was a good year. If you play RHB, you are counting on some bullpen runs. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 8 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHP ONLY Preferred Players: Mondesi (SS - 4600), O'Hearn (1B - 3700)... Gordon (OF - 3500), Hamilton (OF - 3900). Check the lineup in the morning and play all the LHB Pirates vs Anthony DeSclafani (RHP, CIN) - Regardless of him relative success against the Brewers in his first start, I find it exceedingly hard to trust DeSclafani. After missing his age 27 season, he came back in 2018 with 21 GS, putting up a 4.83 FIP with a 1.287 WHIP. He gave up a 9.2 H/9, 1.9 H9 (holy SHIT), 2.3 BB/9, and a decent 8.5 K/9, though that was far an away his career high, and almost a full K over his career average. I mean, he gave up 24 HR and 30 BB. That is insane. Now, let’s get even crazier- his OPS to RHB was .676. That means that, against LHB his OPS was a stunning .917. 30 of the 233 PAs by lefties resulted in an XBH. That is really astounding. So, unless he turns it around completely, make sure you don’t play him and you do everything you can to target any and all LHB you can against him until he loses his job. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 4 Preferred Stack: Mini - LHB only Preferred Players: Frazier (2B - 3900), Bell (1B - 3900), Melky (OF - 3800), Shuck (OF - 3400) White Sox vs Wade LeBlanc (LHP, SEA) - Sometimes I will want to go against LeBlanc. Sometimes I will just want go avoid him. This is one of those times I will go against him LeBlanc doesn’t strike anyone out. While he normally is fine at limiting baserunners, against an underrated White Sox offense against LHB, I think we can find a sneaky stack here that a lot of people will not be on How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 3 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Start with Abreu (1B - 4200), Moncada (3B - 4500), and Eloy (OF - 4300), then start at the top and work your way down Mariners vs Ivan Nova (RHP, @CHW) - Some things are just pretty damn simple. Ivan Nova is a terrible pitcher who can’t keep people off the bases and then gives up a ton of HRs. You can stack against him any time he pitches, regardless of who he is playing. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 6 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHB *Preferred Players: Smith (OF - 4200), Bruce (OF - 4100), Narvaez (C - 3400), then start at the top and work down. * Cubs vs Zach Davies (RHP, @MIL) - Zach Davies is another pitcher that we are generally going to stack against every time he pitches, especially when his opponent is a legitimately good offense. He gives up a TON of baserunners and his career best H9 was 1.1. In Miller Park, the ball should be flying here, and the Cubs are one of the best stacks on the slate. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 9 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Start at the top and work your way down Astros vs Mike Fiers (RHP, OAK) - Man, just when I was getting super tired, things get super easy. Fiers is horrible. He lets a TON of people on base. And he gives up an absolute fuckload of HR. The Astros are the best stack on the slate, as far as I’m concerned. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 10 Preferred Stack: Full *Preferred Players: Start at the top and go down in order. * Padres vs The Ghost of Adam Wainwright (RHP, @STL) - Wainwright is not who he was. He is one of the worst pitchers in baseball right now, and it’s sad to see. In his last start against the Pirates, he only got through 4 IP, giving up 4 hits, 4 ER, 4 walks and, of course, 3 K. for 2.2 DKP and 1 happy bathrobe cause I stacked the Pirates. Tonight I will do the same against Waino with the Padres. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 4 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Everyone that is breathing for the Padres One-Off Batters Goldschmidt (1B - 4700) - While I do have faith that Strahm rebounds, he is also a LHP going against Goldie, which means Goldie should be 5500 and the fact he’s not means we are going to make some money playing him tonight, even as a one off HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Fernando Tatis, Jr. While I would normally go into both the 3 game afternoon slate and the showdown for tonight, I also have a 14 game slate for the NBA that I have to have done by about 1pm tomorrow, so I have to get to work on that ASAP. Best of luck everyone!!
bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for April 2nd, 2019 (MLB)
Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that would like to donate I also strongly suggest joining us on Flick. It’s a live chat app that allows me, and a wonderful group of people, to deal with news as it happens, talk about the slate, share lineups, and break things down in a way I simply can’t on any other medium. It is also invite only, so there are no trolls and only good, helpful people talking all different sports, all day, every day.. If you want to join us there, Download the Flick App and send me a message so I can get you an invite. That’s it! Free and easy! With that being said, let’s get into it! Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather) DET (Zimmermann, RHP) vs NYY (Tanaka, RHP) - O/U - 8, NYY -237
Overcast. Chilly. Temps around 50. Wind blowing in 9mph. Boost to pitchers.
MIL (Chacin, RHP) vs CIN (DeSclafani, RHP) - O/U - 9, CIN -111
Clear. Temps in the High 50s. Light winds.
PHI (Eflin, RHP) vs WAS (Scherzer, RHP) - O/U - 7, WAS -196
60% chance of Light Rain at game time for 3 hours or so. Wind blowing in at 7mph. Rain supposed to end by 10pm or so. So this may be light enough that they can play through it. Or they could just wait and check how it goes. Either way, I am going to assume this game gets in so I will treat it thusly.
BAL (Cashner, RHP) vs TOR (Stroman, RHP) - O/U - 8.5, TOR -201
DOME
NYM (Vargas, LHP) vs MIA (Urena, RHP) - O/U - 8, NYM -128
DOME
COL (Freeland, LHP) vs TB (Snell, LHP) - O/U - 7, TB -144
Today’s Slate Oh man!! Monday night is trivia night for me. I get to go about half the time depending on how the pain is. Apart from going out to get medicine, it was the first time I’ve been out of the house in about 2 weeks so it was nice. I regularly go against teams of 4 people by myself. I play under the name Quizzly Bear. I win most of the time. It’s super fun. But today I was worried. How the hell am I going to do something besides writing? I literally have done nothing but write for a couple weeks now. Doing the Previews and now an MLB and NBA long-form deep dive every day by myself take a lot of work. Like 12-14 hours a day I am doing this. It’s great cause it takes my mind off the pain. But it leaves little time for leisure. So I was worried tonight. But then I sat down and put together the Game Notes and saw that it was the day where all the Aces go. So that’s going to make this SUPER easy and fast. Yay. Pitchers Great Pitchers Scherzer (11800, RHP) vs PHI - There are going to be a couple of these today. And it’s fun. Pitchers you can use literally every time they are on the mound. Of course, not everyone that you can play every time actually succeeds every time, but that doesn’t change who they are. So, Scherzer is amazing. Whether or not we play him will come down to a few factors - the weather, his ownership, and how everyone else looks. Right now, Max is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, and for good reason. Will he have the most points? It’s possible. But we should take a look at all the other options we have. Snell (9500, LHP) vs COL - Snell was the Cy Young award winner last season. He doesn’t allow anyone on base. He strikes out a TON of people. He’s going against a Rockies team much weaker away from home in a pitcher’s park. And he’s only the 5th most expensive play? 2300 cheaper than Scherzer? Gimme a break. And go over the field, whatever it is. Verlander (11500, RHP) at TEX - If not for Snell, Verlander would have been the Cy Young last season. Like I have said on multiple occasions, Verlander is simply one of the best pitchers in the game. You can use him every time he pitches. I could just copy and paste what I said about Scherzer here. Except you save 300 but don’t get a pitcher’s spot. Again, the question is one of ownership and whether or not you want to pay up or take a chance on other aces that are cheaper. Bats or pitchers today, my friend. A choice we will be making all season long. You can go 2 ace pitchers and cheap bats. Two punt pitchers and expensive stacks. Or one of each and then get an expensive stack and some other good batters. Berrios (9700, RHP) at KC - Berrios could win the Cy Young this year. I picked Gerrit Cole, but it could easily be Berrios. He got off to a hot start, too, allowing 2 hits, 1 walk, and striking out 10 in 7.2 IP. Good for almost 40 DKP. As much as I love Max and Justin, I think I will start my lineup tomorrow with Snell and Berrios. The upside is the exact same for all 4 of these pitchers, and the prices on these guys is laughable. Especially Berrios who has the best matchup of the 4. I have to make one note - Vegas has Berrios as the starter, DK has Berrios as the starter, but some places list the starter as Kyle Gibson which would make this a much different game. If Gibson does start I want nothing to do with him or KC, but I would be much more likely to stack KC than play Gibson. And KC is awful. Sale (10500, LHP) at OAK - Oh you thought I was done with the aces with Berrios, huh?? Not yet. We also have Chris Sale, who also could have been the Cy Young last year. He is also someone we can use every time he pitches. While I like the cheaper options better, Sale will probably be the least owned, as people pay up for Scherzer and Verlander or try to save money with Berrios and Snell. Either way, today is a day you want to MME so you can get shares of all of these guys in all sorts of different combinations. Good Pitchers Ryu (9300, LHP) vs SF - I would call Ryu a great pitcher if I thought he would have a shot at 7 or 8 IP today, but we all know that’s not going to happen as a SP with the Dodgers. So what we can expect is is about 6 IP out of him, against a Giants lineup that only has 2 threats to LHP, with a whole bunch of strikeouts and almost no walks or hits given up. If it weren’t for the tier of pitchers above him, he would be one of the best pitchers on the slate. But I don’t know how you can justify this price when Berrios and Snell are right there. Still, like I have been saying, if you MME get yourself some exposure. There are just better options for single entry. Greinke (7600, RHP) at SD - On opening day, I put Greinke in the “Great Pitchers, Bad Spots” section because, while I love him as a pitcher, and understand how smart he is and how hard he works, the Dodgers lineup is one designed to destroy pitchers like Greinke. The Padres lineup, while also pretty fierce, is nowhere near as daunting. Especially when it comes to the LH power department. In fact, SD only projects to have 1 LHB start tomorrow, Hosmer. Otherwise Greinke should be able to make his way through a tougher, but still not impossible lineup. And man, what a discount you get for a former Cy Young winner. Lauer (7300, LHP) vs ARI - Lauer was one of my favorite plays on opening day. He was only 5600 against a poor SFG team at home. Well, now he gets a poor ARI team at home. I don’t know if he’ll have as much success given the number of RHB he will face this time, but I also know that a couple of those batters will be a pitcher, Nick Ahmed and a terrible Catcher. Lauer isn’t going to set the world on fire. And I don’t prefer him over other pitchers, but he is someone we have to consider. And if we building multiple lineups, he is someone to which we should definitely have some exposure. And if he can get his K stuff working, even better. Great Pitcher??? Madison Bumgarner (8900, LHP) at LAD - I don’t know what to make of MadBum. I honestly don’t. He has looked absolutely awful last season. He looked even worse in ST. But then he fired a gem on opening day against SD, twirling 7 IP while striking out 9 and giving up 2 ER. Good for 26.15 DKP. I don’t think you can expect that again, but I do know that MadBum is one of those dudes that really steps up when the occasion calls for it and he hates the Dodgers. And the Dodgers are a lineup that may wind up having some issues against LHP this season. I mean a lot of their best hitters are lefties. And some of their best RHB are reverse splits hitters, like Pollock and Taylor (meaning they are Righties better against Righties). Given all the other options today, I don’t know if you can go there. I certainly wouldn’t if I was playing one lineup. But, if you are going to MME I would have exposure to both MadBum AND some RH heavy Dodgers mini stacks (with Turner and Hernandez). Great Spots Stroman (8300, RHP) vs BAL - One of the free squares of the day, Stroman looked really good opening day against a slightly better Tigers team. He got 7 shutout innings with 7 Ks, which is great. Given the futility of the BAL lineup, I would think he could easily do it again. With all the legit aces on the slate as well, he will almost definitely go overlooked. Vargas (5600, LHP) vs MIA - I don’t think anyone is going to get Vargas confused with a Scherzer or Verlander, but he’s still a serviceable Major League pitcher who gets people out. He doesn’t strike out of a ton of people, but he strikes out enough for a 5600 price tag. Plus he gets to take on the terrible O of the Marlins, which is another bonus. I mean, in my preview for the Mets I specifically said “Vargas isn’t someone we use very often. But we have to give him serious consideration whenever he pitches against the Marlins.” Turns out that happens in his first start of the year. If you want to get one of the expensive stacks in there, you could do worse for a cheap pitcher than this. No Thanks Kyle Freeland (7900) at TB - Freeland is a fine pitcher. I don’t really want to stack against him. And he’s in a great pitcher’s park today in TB. But that means that he doesn’t get the benefit of a pitcher’s spot. He’s also someone who doesn’t strike a lot of people out, meaning that, when we have a slate with legit aces, there’s no reason to go to someone who may only get 4 or 5 Ks in 7 IP. Brad Keller (7000) vs CWS - Brad Keller will be the de facto “ace” until Duffy comes back, and he certainly pitched like it on opening day, going 7 IP and only allowing 2 hits. The problem with Keller is that he’s a pitcher that relies on a dominant sinker with a decent slider meaning he profiles more as a Dallas Keuchel - someone that should have real world success but someone we can’t use as a pitcher for DFS purposes. After all, Ks are King and his K/9 has never really been that much over 6, even when he was in the minors. This also makes him someone you can not really stack against since we’re not going to see a lot of HR from someone that keeps the ball on the ground. I also don’t expect him to be as lucky today, meaning he won’t maintain the same efficiency and can’t be counted on for as many points. Plus his price came up 2100. Batters Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order) Nationals vs Zach Eflin (RHP, @PHI) - Zach Eflin is not the worst #5 pitcher in baseball. But he’s going against Scherzer, so this is not a good spot for him (especially on FD where the win really matters). He is also a pitcher that doesn’t strike out a lot of people and gives up a lot of hits and walks. He is also really, really bad against LHB, so we should make sure to prioritize them. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 6 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHB first Preferred Players: Eaton (OF - 4100), Soto (OF - 5100), Turner (SS - 4900), Rendon (3B - 4700), Zimmerman (1B - 4200), Gomes (C - 3700), Robles (OF - 4200) Blue Jays vs Cashner (RHP, BAL) - I know that the Blue Jays have started out by making horrible pitchers look like Cy Young winners. Now they get one again. But DFS players need to have short memories. Just because the Jays have disappointed us against some of the worst pitchers in the game doesn’t mean that Cashner, who is legit terrible, will somehow get away with it. Granted, he could, but I would expect the Jays to do to him what the Yanks did - 4 walks, 6 hits, and 6 ER in 4 IP. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 3 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Start at the top and work your way down. So right now that’s projected to be- McKinney (OF - 3800), Drury (3B - 3600), Smoak (1B - 4200), Grichuk (OF - 4400), Tellez (1B - 4000), Hernandez (OF - 4200), etc.. Mets vs Urena (RHP, @MIA) - People are going to keep sleeping on this Mets offense, and that’s fine. People trolled me over my Alonso and Ramos picks yesterday. If you played them, you probably won some money. I will go right back there today against Urena, who is awful. He gives up hits, he gives up HR, he walks dudes. And the Mets have a team filled with patient hitters, sluggers, and LHB. It’s going to be a bad day for the Marlins and their awful bullpen. Plus, they are on the road so they get 9 turns AB no matter what. A huge bonus when considering a stack. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 4 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Alonso (1B - 4100), Cano (2B - 3900), Conforto (OF - 4500), McNeil (3B/OF - 4000), Nimmo (OF - 3900), Ramos (C - 3900) Astros vs Shelby Miller (RHP, @TEX) - Shelby Miller is a 28 year old who hasn’t gotten more than 4 starts in a season since 2016. And in that season he had a FIP of 4.87 and a WHIP of 1.673. So, basically, stack anyone and everyone you can against him. In that season, while he was bad against RHB, he was all sorts of awful against LHB, so they should be the priority. This is going to be one of a couple chalk stacks. But in order to get there, you are really going to need to take some punts at Pitcher. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 10 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Springer (OF - 4800), Altuve (2B - 5200), Bregman (3B/SS - 5000), Brantley (OF - 4500), Correa (SS - 4600), etc... Red Sox vs Mike Fiers (RHP, @OAK) - Mike Fiers is one of the worst pitchers I’ve ever seen throw a no hitter. And he did it against an amazing Dodgers team, somehow. But. like my dad always used to say, sometimes I’d rather be lucky than good. Sure Fiers can get lucky. But odds are he won’t. He doesn’t strike out anyone. He doesn’t get people out. He gives up a bunch of HR. And now he gets to go against the Red Sox, one of the, if not the, best offense in the game right now. Last game, the A’s hid Fiers behind an opener so he wouldn’t have to face the order 3 times and it worked. But, even if they try that now, it just means a whole bunch of different fantastic hitters he has to deal with. If HOU is not the chalk stack of the day, it’s this one. And for good reason. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 10 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Start at the top and work your way down - Betts (OF - 5500), Benintendi (OF - 4900), Devers (3B - 4100), Martinez (OF - 5300), Bogaerts (SS - 4300), Moreland (1B - 3800), etc... Mariners vs Trevor Cahill (RHP, LAA) - If you are looking for a relatively cheap stack against a bad pitcher that isn’t the Mets, we have a couple in this game. First, Cahill is just not a good pitcher. He wouldn’t even have the #1 spot in this rotation if not for injuries. He doesn’t strike out anyone, and he gives up a bunch of hits and walks. We should be able to get a sneaky M’s stack here. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7 Chalk Level (1-10): 3 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Smith (OF - 4100), Bruce (OF - 4000), Narvaez (C - 3300), Haniger (OF - 4200), Santana (OF - 4000), Encarnacion (1B - 4200), etc... Angels vs Marco Gonzales (LHP, @SEA) - Gonzales is one of the worst #1 starters in baseball. He is serviceable, but only in situations. And he’s nowhere near the tier of a lot of other team’s #3 starters. Compare him to a Carrasco or Wheeler or Corbin. He is going against an Angels lineup that is going to wreak havoc on LHP this season, and Gonzales will be an early casualty of that. I should also note that if you stack the Angels without Trout, you are getting some REALLY cheap dudes that will help you fit in some of these aces. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 9 Preferred Stack: Full - RHB preferred Preferred Players: Trout (OF - 5600), Cozart (3B/SS - 3700), SImmons (SS- 3800), Pujols (1B - 3500), Lucroy (C - 3300) One-Off Batters Castro (2B - 3700), Prado (1B - 3300) - I mean, you’re kind of wasting a 1B spot by using Prado, honestly. When I recommended him yesterday, I thought he was still a 2B. But still, he went 2-4 which isn’t awful. Just wasn’t the Alonso play I really loved. Still, he crushes the Mets, and crushes LHP and he gets that again. The same can be said for Castro, and I should have included him yesterday. Adam Jones (OF - 3800), Wilmer Flores (1B/2B - 4300) - Adam Jones is really good against LHP and Wilmer Flores fucking destroys LHP. As long as Lauer can stay in there, these dudes have a good chance of racking up some points. Longoria (3B - 3500) and Posey (C/1B - 4000) - While I like Ryu a lot, you can play Posey and Longo against any Lefty. And Ryu is absolutely no exception to this rule. I love when things are this easy. I mean, it’s not going to be easy to decide who we play, but the options are pretty clear. Now we just have to put it together with the lineups that come out. Best of luck everyone!!
Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that would like to donate I also strongly suggest joining us on Flick. It’s a live chat app that allows me, and a wonderful group of people, to deal with news as it happens, talk about the slate, share lineups, and break things down in a way I simply can’t on any other medium. It is also invite only, so there are no trolls and only good, helpful people talking all different sports, all day, every day.. If you want to join us there, Download the Flick App and send me a message so I can get you an invite. That’s it! Free and easy! With that being said, let’s get into it! Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather) MIL (Peralta, RHP) vs CIN (Castillo, RHP) - 1235pm - O/U - 8.5, Pick Em
Clear, Nice Day! Beautiful baseball weather. Temps around 60. Light winds.
PHI (Nola, RHP) vs WAS (Sanchez, RHP) - 105pm - O/U - 7.5, PHI -129
Clear, Another beautiful baseball day. Temps climbing to 70. Winds varying in direction, but strong.
Overcast and Warm. Temps around 65 through the game. HEAVY WINDS. Blowing IN the entire game at 17mph. Huge boost to Pitchers.
BOS (Eovaldi, RHP) vs OAK (Estrada, RHP) - 1007pm - O/U - 8.5, BOS -128
Overcast and Warm. Temps around 60. Light winds. OAK weather.
SF (Holland, LHP) vs LAD (Stripling, RHP) - 1010pm - O/U - 7.5, LAD -205
Mostly Cloudy and Warm. Temps in the 60s. Winds light. LA weather.
The Early Slate A fun 5 game slate. Some good pitchers. Some good stacks. Should be a fun day. For those that are new to baseball, today are tomorrow are what’s called “getaway days.” That signifies an end of a series, where one or both of the teams are going to have to travel or “get away.” Because of that, the MLB schedule generally has only night games on Mondays and Tuesdays as teams start a series. On Wednesdays and Thursdays when series are finishing there will generally be 2 slates. One early slate and one late. Most getaway days will be like this. Then most Fridays are all night games. And weekends you’ve seen - a split day on Saturday, with most games on Sunday going off at 1 and 4 with one single Sunday night game. So let’s dive in to the first early slate on the first getaway day of this season! Pitchers (in chronological order, basically) Great Pitchers Aaron Nola (10200, RHP) at WAS - Nola is in the category of “Potential Cy Young winners that you can play every day.” Let’s look at the numbers from last season. 33 GS, 212.1 IP, 224 K, 2.37 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 0.975 WHIP. Phenomenal stuff. He had 17 starts over 100 pitches and 16 under 100 pitches. 12% of fly balls against him were Infield Flies. I mean, dude had a 10.5 WAR. There are very few pitchers in the entire sport of baseball that are better than Aaron Nola. I can’t state that enough. Every single time he pitches, he is a viable play. I mean, sure Washington is a good team with a good lineup. But Nola is a beast and I feel like the public just doesn’t know that well enough yet. Plus, he gets a Nats lineup that will be missing Trea Turner due to a broken index finger, suffered from a HBP yesterday. His replacement is Wilmer Difo, which is like replacing a steak with a big mac - or, if you’re vegan, i’m sorry (i’m kidding, don’t send letters.) German Marquez (9900, RHP) at TB - Marquez, like Nola, is a fantastic pitcher who gets ignored. It’s easy to ignore someone that pitches for the Rockies, but he is a legit ace. He had a K/9 of almost 11. He had an FIP of 3.40 as a starter that started predominantly in Coors. He is also someone with incredible home/away splits (something you really need to look at for Rockies players). He is decent at home, sure, but he is absolutely lights-out away from Coors. Now we get him in an extreme pitchers park in TB. Sign me up. What’s even more fun? He will be completely overlooked tomorrow with people going above and below him, price-wise. Charlie Morton (8800, RHP) vs COL - This is one of those pitchers whose price and pedigree will make it so that people sleep on Marquez. But, to a degree, that’s ok. Cause Morton is a fucking awesome pitcher who can strike out a ton of people taking on a Rockies team that’s hitting worse than the BLUE JAYS lately. They can’t stop getting shut out. He doesn’t allow baserunners or runs. He has a K/9 of almost 11. And he’s way underpriced here. Don’t overthink this one, regardless of how chalky he is (and I expect him to be extremely chalky). Good Pitchers, Bad Spots Luis Castillo (8100, RHP) vs MIL - Castillo is a fantastic pitcher that can be as hit or miss as it gets. When he is on, he looks unhittable and will rack up double digit Ks. We saw that Castillo on opening day when, on a short leash, he struck out 8 in 5.2 IP. The thing with Castillo, though, is he is an extreme splits pitcher. That means he is absolutely dominant against RHB but has a lot of trouble with LHB. This is going to be a big problem against this MIL lineup that features a bunch of LH power from top to bottom. This is one of those situations (like almost anyone that would be in this category or the GPP category) where I advise, if doing MME, you get exposure to both Castillo AND the MIL Lefties. GPP Plays Freddy Peralta (7500, RHP) at CIN - I don’t love Peralta, but I do know enough about him to know that he is a dangerous pitcher with a ton of upside that is absolute murder on RHB. If you look at his first game, he came out of the gate really shaky, giving up a HR to Goldie right after walking Carpenter. He then hit the next hitter before getting Ozuna to ground into a fielder’s choice. Ozuna then came around on a double by Yadi Molina. Peralta lost Fowler on a 3-2 pitch before the pitching coach came out, settled Peralta down, and he struck out the next 2 batters. Over the next couple of innings, he gave up a single to Goldy, a double to Ozuna, another walk to Fowler, and then started off the 4th giving up a cheap knock to the opposing pitcher on an 0-2 count and another hit to Carpenter on an 0-2 count before being pulled. To me, knowing Peralta is someone that has trouble with LHB but is absolute murder on RHB, that seems like someone who might have had the first-start jitters and, after being unable to settle in, was given a quick hook. I would expect, against a much less imposing Reds lineup Peralta will have more success. There’s a couple tough Lefties there, sure (more on that later), but he should also be able to get himself more than a couple easy strikeouts and put up a high enough score to pay this salary today. Anibal Sanchez (5900, RHP) vs PHI - This is not a play for the weak stomached among you. Sanchez is someone who had been coming off pretty terrible 2016 and 2017s. He was 7-13 with a 5.87 ERA in 2016 and 3-7 with a 6.41 ERA in 2017. Both years he was removed as a starter and placed in the bullpen. Last year, the Braves took a chance on him and, for the most part, he came through. He got a 7-6 record with 2.83 ERA in 24 starts, racking up 136.2 IP and 135 Ks. The deeper stats tell of someone who had a bit of a 2nd wind year, though, and not a complete renaissance. His FIP was 3.62, nearly a full point more than his ERA. This is in stark contrast to 16/17, when Sanchez’ FIP was significantly lower. This shows just how important defense is behind certain pitchers. Fortunately for Sanchez, he will be playing in front of one of the best Ds in the MLB, according to fangraphs projections. Though that would be different without Trea. His WHIP was 1.08 which is the lowest it’s ever been in his career. His H/9 was 7.0 which was the lowest in his career. We are going have to see how age and a completely new set of teammates and coaches treats Sanchez. He could be someone we regularly pick on (if he is 2016-17 Sanchez) or someone we can get for value (if he pitches like last year). This early in the season, I’m all for taking a chance on him at this price, especially since it’s only a 5 game slate. Also, playing him with any other pitcher would pretty much allow us to fit in any bat we wanted on this slate. Even if he has a mediocre game, that might give us enough points to take down a GPP. Carlos Rodon (7000, LHP) at CLE - This is a play that is going to sneak under the radar because people don’t realize that CLE is a shell of the offense it was last year without Lindor at the top of the order. He will be back soon enough, I’m sure. And the pitching is more than enough to make up for any offensive deficiencies. But, that being said, they are real, real weak right now. And they get a kid in Rodon who was a top prospect with lightning stuff and huge upside that could never find enough control to make the jump to the next level. His first start was good, though, suffering a tough luck loss against a KC team that got a fantastic start from Keller that day. He still went 5.1 IP, only allowing 3 hits with 1 walk and getting 6 Ks. Another thing going for him? He’s a reverse splits pitcher who will only see 1 LHB in this Indians lineup. Like I said, this is a kid that will go overlooked today, but he has all the upside in the world. And he could make good on that against a poor Indians team. **Batters ** Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order) Brewers vs Castillo (RHP, @CIN) The Brewers get to travel to Great American Smallpark for a tough matchup against Castillo. Well a tough matchup for their RHB. For the LHB? Time to eat at low ownership!! Just last season, Castillo gave up an OPS of .587 to RHB and .882 to LHB. You have to go there if you can. Like I said earlier, this is a spot where, if you MME, you should have some shares of Castillo and some shares of MIL LHB. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 3 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHB ONLY Preferred Players: Yelich (OF - 5500), Shaw (1B/3B - 4300), Moustakas (2B - 4600), Grandal (C - 4100) Phillies vs Sanchez (RHP, @WAS) - I did a full write up of Sanchez above. As I mentioned, he is coming off a good year preceded by 2 horrific years. If he pitches like the horrific Sanchez, Phillies are gonna score 10 runs in the first 3 innings. One thing to note - Sanchez shows reverse splits, so you can prioritize RHB and separate yourself from the field. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 5 Chalk Level (1-10): 9 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: If you are stacking this, you are going all in. So start at the top and work down. So - McCutchen (OF - 3800), Segura (SS - 3700), Bryce (OF - 4500), Hoskins (1B - 4100), Realmuto (C - 3800), etc.. Royals vs Gibson (RHP, MIN) - Kyle Gibson will finally be making his 1st start this season, after Berrios made his 2nd. That should tell you that this is a 31 year old we shouldn’t expect all too much out of (although he had a good year last year.) Last season, he had a FIP of 4.13, which was decent, but his WHIP of 1.302 was not. He gave up a ton of walks. So much so, if he had given up his career level of H/9, he would have had a WHIP of 1.44. He also gives up a decent amount of HR, meaning he is someone we are going to be able to stack against every time he pitches, for the most part. Today we get KC in the lucky spot. It’s worth noting a couple of things - 1st, before last season, when he had a K/9 of 8.2, he had never been over 6.9. I expect him to go back down under 7. All the better to help keep rallies going. Second, he is a normal splits pitcher, so make sure you prioritize LHB against him. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7 Chalk Level (1-10): 3 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Whit (2B/OF - 4900), Mondesi (SS - 5100), Soler (OF - 3900), O’Hearn (1B - 3900), Duda (1B - 4100), etc.. Twins vs Homer Bailey (RHP, @KC) - Homer Bailey is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. This stack is going to be chalk and I don’t care. Bailey is entering his age 33 season and, if it’s anything like his age 32 season, he will be unemployed before long and Ian Kennedy will be next up to work his way towards unemployment. Bailey had an FIP of 5.55 last season with a WHIP of 1.636. He gave up 11.9 H/9 and a horrific 1.9 H9. He’s also equally bad against RHP and LHP, but extra horrible against LHP when it comes to slugging, so play every single LHP that you can against him. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 10 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Everyone. Including the ghost of Kirby Puckett. Kepler (OF - 4400), Polanco (SS - 4100), Cruz (OF - 5000), Rosario (OF - 4700), Cron (1B - 4500), etc.. One-Off Batters Reds Lefties - Writing this at 1am, it’s hard to know exactly who is going to start. I assume that we will get Winkler (OF - 3700), Votto (1B - 4000), Barnhart (C - 3300), and Schebler (OF - 3900). It should be noted, though - Schebler is a reverse splits hitter, meaning he is better against LHP. Also, Barnhart is a much better hitter as a Righty meaning he is also better against LHP. I wouldn’t mind taking a chance on any one of them (or a 2 or 3 person mini stack). Though, again, Peralta is a tough pitcher who can have a lights-out game if everything is going right. Rhys Hoskins (1B - 4900) - Hoskins is my favorite batter on this slate. He is an extreme reverse splits hitter going against a reverse splits pitcher. If you’re doing that math at home, that means Hoskins is going to get you a HR today. EVEN IF YOU PLAY SANCHEZ he is cheap enough you can ALSO play Hoskins and still have a GPP winning lineup. HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Rhys Hoskins Main Slate This is a lot more tricky than this afternoon. Very few pitching options. A TON of stacks we will want to play. It will be interesting to see how you all decide to attack it. I will focus on 2 pitchers and make lineups with them and a bunch of different stacks around them. Pitchers (in chronological order, basically) Great Pitchers Jameson Taillon (7900, RHP) vs STL - I know he didn’t have the best start of his career against the Reds on Opening Day, but I stand by what I said about him that day - he is a legit ace and will be a top 10 pitcher for the Cy Young this year. He has talent. He has drive. And he’s getting better. A 3.20 ERA with a similarly impressive 3.46 FIP. A 1.178 WHIP. A K/9 of 8.4. A H9 of 0.9. 20 of his 32 starts were QS. SO-BB is 16.9%. I mean, I could just go on, but I’m just reading off amazing stats he put up. This isn’t the easiest lineup to face in the Cards, but apart from Carpenter and Goldie, he shouldn’t have much trouble getting through these guys while racking up the Ks. Gerrit Cole (11400, RHP) at TEX - As I have said a bunch of times now, Cole is my pick for Cy Young in the AL this year. He is a great pitcher and getting greater. He doesn’t walk anyone. He barely gives up any hits. He strikes out a ton of people (Opening Day he got 10 K in 6 IP). If he goes longer today (or even if he doesn’t) we can almost guarantee double digit Ks. You can’t say that about a lot of people. If you are new to DFS, you may be shocked to hear that pitchers will reach the 13-14k range eventually. Cole is still laughably underpriced due to how early it is in the season. I don’t care if he’s 75% owned and you are playing GPP, if you are doing one lineup and you don’t play Cole on this slate you should just burn your money instead. If you do MME, feel free to not have in some lineups, obviously. But don’t get cute here. No Thanks Nate Eovaldi (9000, RHP) at OAK - While you might be surprised when looking at Nate Eovaldi and his electric, 100-mph stuff, he doesn’t strike people out. He has the lowest K/9 of anyone on the Red Sox staff, hovering around 8 K/9. Which isn’t terrible. He’s just overpriced for a road matchup against a dangerous OAK team. I spent a long time debating whether to put him as a GPP play or make a stack recommendation out of Oakland that I didn’t really like. Then I realized I can just not play anyone from here, minus a one off or two... Batters Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order) Pirates vs Miles Mikolas (RHP, STL) - On Opening Day, I recommended that you stack against Mikolas, even though it wouldn’t be popular to do so. I talked about how his success comes from control and some luck and, if he loses a little of either of that, he could have a terrible day. I mean, the dude only walked 25 people last season unintentionally. That’s insane. Well he’s already up to 1, on top of the 5 ER he gave up in 5 IP. Like I said, if he isn’t immaculate in his control, he is going to get hammered. So why not take the bet that someone won’t be perfect, when everyone else would be on him. Especially when people talk about his success and the story and the narrative and the control and ignore the fact he also gave up the most hits in the majors. I mean, come on. Learn to recognize a mirage quickly, folks, or prepare to get lost in the desert. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 3 Preferred Stack: Full - LHB preferred/Reverse Splits RHB Preferred Players: The following batters are LHB/SH or Reverse Splits RHB - Frazier (2B - 3900), Dickerson (OF - 4300), Bell (1B - 3900), Melky (OF - 3800), Kang (3B/SS - 4200), Marte (OF - 4700), Gonzalez (SS - 3700) Braves vs Jon Lester (LHP, CHC) - Another really sneaky stack here that I know that people won’t be on, cause they overrate Jon Lester and may not realize how annoying the Braves lineup is. In 2017, people worried about Lester and his 4.33 ERA. But, much like a lot of pitchers, this was somewhat bad luck as his FIP was 4.10. Not great, but still lower than his ERA. He also had a 9.0 K/9, though you could see a lot of the other peripheral stats worsening. In 2018, even though his ERA was 3.32, like i said before, his FIP was more than a run higher- 4.39. That’s really bad. His WHIP was 1.310, which is bad. This is reflected in his 8.6 H/9 and his 3.2 BB/9, the highest it had been since 2011. The real concerning stat, though, is his K/9 dropped from 9.0 to 7.4. The lowest since he was 24 years old in 2008. The AL East in 2008 is a lot different than last year’s NL Central, though. When a pitcher is striking out less and walking more, we can see the writing on the wall. Especially when he is 35. He is someone we can play occasionally (some lineups are horrible against lefties, some are the Marlins). But the high walks and the low Ks is something that worries me. Oh. Also- Lester can’t throw to first base (or has a lot of trouble doing it). So you can also prioritize people who can steal a base against him. Last thing- Lester is a lefty. He gave up a .250 BA to righties last year and a .279 BA to Lefties. He gave up a .696 OPS to Righties and a .878 OPS to Lefties. This is pretty extreme reverse splits and you need to focus on taking lefties against Lester when everyone else doesn’t realize this fact. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 3 Preferred Stack: Full - LHB preferred Preferred Players: Freeman (1B - 4600), Inciarte (OF - 3900), Markakis (OF - 3700), Acuna (OF - 4800), Donaldson (3B - 4600), Albies (2B/SS - 4300), McCann (C - 3700) Cubs vs Teheran (RHP, @ATL) - Much like Jon Lester, Teheran can’t get LHB out. While that mattered less on Opening Day against a predominantly RH Phillies lineup, it WILL matter a lot when the Cubs come to town. Teheran is an ace. But he’s like a diva ace. He’s very temperamental. He’ll show up, but he doesn’t always show up. And, with the built-in problems he has against LHB, I will have to take the chance of stacking here, though, at 7000, he is absolutely a GPP play given his upside. Just don’t expect anything out of him. And do not waste a single lineup spot on a -EV chance. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 9 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHB greatly preferred Preferred Players: Rizzo (1B - 4900), Zobrist (2B/OF - 3900), Schwarber (OF - 4600), Bryant (3B/OF - 4700), Baez (SS - 5300) Astros vs Mike Minor (LHP, @TEX) - Oh boy. Not only do we get an Astros team that absolutely murders LHP, we get them against Mike Minor - someone who doesn’t strike anyone out and gives up more homers than the Fox Outlet during a clearance sale. This is probably going to be the chalkiest stack of the night. And it should be. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 10 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Start at the top and work your way down - Springer (OF - 4900), Altuve (2B - 5200), Bregman (3B/SS - 5400), Brantley (OF - 4300), Correa (SS - 4800), etc... Red Sox vs Marco Estrada (RHP, @OAK) - All these amazing road teams, guaranteed 9 times at bat, in great spots. It really is an embarrassment of riches for a 5 game slate. Estrada is a terrible pitcher. Sure he’ll have some great days. But the odds are thin one of those will come against this Red Sox team. I should also note, he is an extreme reverse splits pitcher, so stock up on RHB where everyone else will play the LHB. Also, and most importantly, Estrada gives up more homers than a Classics professor passing out her reading material for the semester. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 10 Preferred Stack: Full - RHB preferred Preferred Players: Betts (OF - 5500), Martinez (OF - 5100), Bogaerts (SS - 4300), Vazquez (C - 3300), Nunez (2B/3B - 3800), Benintendi (OF - 4800), Devers (3B - 4100) Dodgers vs Derek Holland (LHP, SF) - Another great offense going against a horrible pitcher. This time we get LAD vs Derek Holland, someone who is lucky to have a job. If this was a 24 team league, he would either be in AAA or retired. The Dodgers are dangerous against everyone, although more potent against RHP, which is a slight knock to them. Also, they are home where most of the other stacks are away, meaning we are going to miss out on a whole inning of AB from them, which could be a tiebreaker to consider. Still, they are going against Derek Holland who gives up more homers than Lieutenant Gigot (look it up). How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 10 Preferred Stack: Full - RHP preferred Preferred Players: Hernandez (2B - 4200), Turner (3B - 4400), Pollock (OF - 4600), Freese (1B/3B - 3700), Seager (SS - 4400), Taylor (OF/SS - 4100), Barnes (C - 3900) One-Off Batters Kendrys Morales (1B - 3800), Grossman (OF - 3400), Profar (1B/2B - 3700) - While I wouldn’t take this as far as a 3 person stack, I wouldn’t mind playing 2 of these dudes tonight, especially Grossman at 3400 who should be batting leadoff. Eovaldi has a lot of trouble with LHB and these 3 are annoying enough that they can give him fits tonight. They are all also cheap as hell, which, honestly, we need desperately tonight given how expensive everything is. HR CALL OF THE SLATE: George Springer Alright everyone! That does it for an awesome day of MLB. Now for a giant NBA slate! I better get to work. It’s only 2am after all! I’ll eat and sleep when I’m dead. Or in a couple of weeks :D.
This year’s ALCS between the Red Sox and Astros is one of the best matchups in MLB playoff history between teams that won a combined 211 regular-season. Thus, it just couldn’t end in a sweep! It’s guaranteed not to with the series all tied 1-1 as it shifts to Houston for Game 3 on Tuesday night. The Astros are MLB Read More The Astros (31-15) have won 10 in a row entering Sunday, while the Red Sox (23-22) have lost three of four. They also have won seven of their last 10 home games. Sunday's first pitch is set for 1... Red Sox vs Astros ALCS Game 4 Betting Trends. Astros are 49-19 in their last 68 home games vs. a right-handed starter; Red Sox are 8-3 in Porcello’s last 11 road starts; Red Sox are 5-2 in Porcello’s last 7 starts vs. American League West; Under is 8-2-1 in Morton’s last 11 starts overall; Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games For the first time ever, the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros will face off in baseball’s postseason as they open the best-of-5 American League Division Series in Houston on Thursday. MLB odds Astros VS. Red Sox, Thursday May 12, Las Vegas Odds, Baseball Betting Lines, Pick, Tip, Prediction – Vegas Coverage MLB Betting Consensus Trend Movements wagering system provided by VegasInsider.com, along with more baseball information for your sports gaming and betting needs. MLB Odds & Predictions: Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros (October 16th, 2018) October 16, 2018. Boston and Houston Play Game Three with Series All Knotted Up The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros were the two best teams in the regular season and so far that kind of intensity and battle is The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros are the last two World Series winners, and Vegas thinks these teams have the best odds to capture another championship in 2019. Red Sox 31.5 White Sox 31.5 Rangers 29.5 Blue Jays 28 Mariners 25 Royals 24.5 Orioles 21.5 Tigers 21.5 — Odds Shark (@OddsShark) June 24, 2020. Odds to make the American League playoffs (Bovada Mybookie Sportsbook has the Red Sox favorites at 110-moneyline with the total sitting at 9. MLB Runline Odds at BetOnline the Red Sox were favored by -1½ (+175) Pitching Matchup: Astros: RH Brad Peacock (12-2, 2.98 ERA) Red Sox: LH Eduardo Rodriguez (6-6, 3.91) Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Las Vegas Odds
Sports Betting 2014 MLB Odds - World Series Predictions. OMG Who????
Logan Ryan Latest, Sam Young, 2020 NFL Schedule, Cuts Las Vegas Raiders Report 2,117 watching Live now NBA Picks, MLB Picks 4/9/19 -- Betting Odds and Betting Picks - Duration: 29:44. MLB Baseball picks from the game involving the Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Major League Baseball Betting Free Pick for Tuesday’s scheduled action. MLB Baseball picks from the game involving the Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox 2005 World Series, Game 4: White Sox @ Astros - Duration: 2:40:58 ... Early MLB Betting with Vegas Runner - Duration: 12:21. PregameTV 6,663 views. 12:21. How Betting Odds Work - Sports Betting ... Get MLB predictions and baseball picks for Tuesday, July 2, 2019. In this episode of First Pitch with The Prez, Drew Martin and Dave Cokin. The panel preview...
