Note: Made an edit 12 hours after posting here. I didn't like where Rondale was ranked so I did move him up two spots to more closely match his athletic profile to other players. To make someone upset, looking at these rankings and having spent more time thinking about it I may also move Smith down to 9. I'll leave it for now.

2020 series:

2021 series:

Notes on the 2021 Class
Scouting List 2020
- ^{Yes, an inconsistent title, it’s scouting the 2020 school year, but technically it’s 2021 prospects exclusively.}

^{Quick note: I am not going to be providing a formula change relative to last year, and I'll be citing past work in this post rather than bringing in new concepts. To that point I suppose we will talk more about rankings today. I'm going to avoid tiering in this case but will certainly enter discussions below; I intend to describe more of my takes in the comments rather than the body of the post.}

Contents:

2020 Season Recap
Draft Capital Expectations
Positional Rankings
Top 12 Rankings

2020 Season Recap

Like every year, the sands shift under our feet every couple of weeks. We had players opt out, we had players lose the season due to injury, we had players lose their careers due to medical events. We see this frequently, Mike Williams and DK Metcalf having their careers threatened by neck injuries, Ahmonn Richards losing his career due to a neck injury.
This year we nearly lost Justyn Ross due to a birth defect (and given Clemson’s history may be likely to return to school) and lost Journey Brown (my pre-season RB3) to a career ending heart defect. Throw in Ja’Marr Chase’s opt out--which gave Terrace Marshall the lead spot at LSU, Javonte Williams usurping Michael Carter and thundering into the top RB conversation, Kylin Hill opting out; the sands shifted.
For all that sand shifting, I do not feel my rankings in this iteration are changing much. There were some stand out performances that re-organized my WR rankings, and my uncertainty around Hubbard has only grown, but the complexion of the rankings are fairly solid now 8 months later.

Draft Expectations

I reference my thought process around this in the 2020 Let's Talk under the heading "Setting Draft Capital Expectations." The cliff notes version is I currently use historical precedent to determine just how many players we can expect to go in rounds 1-3 each year. This was born out of countering the idiocy of takes like "30 wide receivers are going to go in the first 3 rounds" when there have never been more than 17 taken. Generally, we know that draft capital is a large portion of opportunity and the wide body of top ranked prospects any given year will come out of day 1 and day 2.
This doesn't mean we disregard everyone that falls out of that conversation--this year there are a number of players I am intrigued with that I currently don't project to have day 1 or day 2 draft capital--but it gives us a place to start.
Since 2013, we know on average 5 QBs, 7 RBs, 12 WRs, and 6 TEs go Day 1-2. Over that course of time we have not seen more than 8 RBs or 16 WRs go in the first two days of the draft and from past examination since 2002 it was only in 2007 that 17 WRs went in the first two days. The general thought here, like we observed in 2019, you may get a record 13 receivers go in the first 2 rounds but then you are only going to get 2 in round 3..on average. Any year can be an outlier, but we don't set expectations on outliers.
Having said all of this my current expectation for the coming class is:

Round	QB	RB	WR
1	3	0-1*	4-6*
2	1-2*	3-4*	4-6*
3	1-2*	3	2-3*
Total Taken	6	7	12

* My current read is there is a player(s) between rounds.
One quick note, every year there tends to be a small school guy that creeps into the day 2 conversation. This year, I wouldn't bet against 13-15 receivers being taken, however I believe there is value in being measured and conservative in these numbers as we must thin the herd and think about who deserves to be in the conversation instead of assuming every player that is ever mentioned is just in the conversation. That's how you get Equanimeous St. Brown Round 1 lock.
^{PS: Dang I did a pretty good job ballparking players last year. Maybe I should have spent more time on it this year to make sure I do just as well.}

Positional Rankings

First, no, I don't talk about tight ends until after the draft. It's outside of my wheel house. A lot of people I respect LOVE Pitts though.
As I've spoken in the past, draft capital is a good guide, and often times out performs ADP in straight rankings, especially early in a players career (opportunity > talent, but talent eventually brings the opportunity). However, if we are looking at success rates, or the probability of finding success by draft position, we find there isn't a significant difference in rate of success between a runner taken 65th overall and a runner taken 90th overall. A receiver taken 25th overall or a receiver taken 65th overall.
More succinctly, if you know DK Metcalf is a hard worker, comes from a football family, has a production profile that mirrors hall of famers when extrapolated out and has gone to a good team--you ignore what people are saying and take the 9th drafted WR as your WR1. Take the 6th drafted WR (Michael Thomas) as your WR1. It may fail, the best odds in fantasy predictions are a coin flip, the BEST odds, so don't haggle between the difference of 20% and 15% odds.

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (Top 3)
Justin Fields, Ohio State (Top 5)
Zach Wilson, BYU (Round 1)
Mac Jones, Alabama (Round 2)
Trey Lance, North Dakota State (Round 2)
Kyle Trask, Florida (Round 2-3)

Haven't fallen in love with a specific QB yet, but I think there is a lot of noise around each player. Find your favorite and cling to him.

Running Back

Najee Harris, Alabama (Round 2)
Travis Etienne, Clemson (Round 2)
Javonte Williams, North Carolina (Round 2)
Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State (Round 3)
Michael Carter, North Carolina (Round 3)
Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State (Round 2)
Kenneth Gainwell, Memphis (Round 3)

Honorable Mentions:

Trey Sermon, Ohio State
Kylin Hill, Mississippi State
Brian Robinson, Alabama
Javian Hawkins, Lousville

I'm not saying there won't be first round runners, but if there are, I think they seep into the 20s or 30-32 like last year.

Wide Receiver

Ja'Marr Chase, LSU (Top 15)
Terrace Marshall, LSU (Top 40)
Justyn Ross, Clemson (Round 2)
Rashod Bateman, Minnesota (Top 40)
Jaylen Waddle, Alabama (Top 20)
DeVonta Smith, Alabama (Top 30)
Seth Williams, Auburn (Round 3)
Elijah Moore, Ole Miss (Round 2)
Rondale Moore, Purdue (Top 40) [+2]
Chris Olave, Ohio State (Round 2)
Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State (Round 2-3)
Dyami Brown, North Carolina (Round 3)

Honorable Mentions:

Amon-Ra St. Brown
Dazz Newsome

Let it all burn.
Before everyone goes thermonuclear in the comments, 5-11 are a fairly large tier for me. I think Rondale Moore is roughly where Tyreek was coming out of college, more game tape being used as an extension of the ground game than as a true wide receiver. I think in the right situation (with the reading I've done on Rondale Moore) gives him a similar career arc to Tyreek. But if you are asking me to give up someone like the more technically savvy players ahead of him for Rondale and I need to hit on that pick? It's scary so far out from the start of the season.

Top 12 Rankings (Superflex)

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina
Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU
Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
Justyn Ross, WR, Clemson
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

I always do my top 12 rankings a little differently than my positional rankings because here I think player value has to come into play. I may not be as high on some people on Rashod Bateman, Rondale Moore--but at some point you are taking him in a draft because of the value and the potential trade outs late in the summer and early in the season. It quickly becomes situational and an examination of upside.

Let's talk.

I have plenty to do today, but it can wait. I have a lot on my mind. I have no plan for this and I assure you if you read a stat, it was made up. But here they are: the top ten reasons the Browns will win on Sunday.
1.People Think the Chiefs Have Been Playing with Their Food by Playing Close Games, When Really They are Just Not as in Control As Everyone Thinks
Two years ago, when Mahomes first made his appearance in the league, the Chiefs were blowing people out of the water. Teams didn't know what was hitting them. He won the MVP handily and, if not for Dee Ford placing his hand two inches in the wrong direction, might have won a Super Bowl.
After losing Mahomes in the middle of last year, the team lost its stability, and the defense became a liability. When Mahomes led some heroic comebacks in the playoffs, people were wowed by his superhuman abilities and thought, like a superhero who fishes himself out of deep trouble 2/3rds of the way through the movie, "that was the plan the whole time!"
For specific reasons, the Chiefs are good at stretch-the-field, come-from-behind scenarios. But it's not the plan. The fact is, it's something of an open secret that the Chiefs lack a true identity, but win despite this major shortcoming.

The Chiefs Have Been Pretending to Have a Run Game For Two Years

Andy Reid has had 4 good running backs in his career: Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, and Kareem Hunt. (He also got Jamaal Charles for 1 year.)
Ever since the departure of Kareem Hunt, Reid has been scrambling to find someone to replace him. He certainly has a type: shifty, elusive backs who are good in open space. Since losing Kareem Hunt it has been: Darrel Williams, Damien Williams, Darwin Thompson, and an aged LeSean McCoy. None of them are what he wants. He carouseled through them last year as they got injured, grew fumbling problems, or he just was tired of seeing their faces. At some point he resigned himself to the fact that he didn't have a run game, and he only needed to pretend to have one.
Enter the drafting of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the signing of Le'Veon Bell. Edwards-Helaire has been serviceable, but he is awful between the tackles, and his elusiveness hasn't been reliable. Aside from that, he has an ankle injury and did not practice today. Le'Veon Bell has been pretending to play football as most plays he begins with a hesitation, as though he is trying to remember something he knew in 2017 that he has since forgotten.
The fact is that the Chiefs have limited dimensions as an offense. They depend on the bowling-ballness of Kelce and the speed of their receivers to get open, despite the fact teams mostly do not have to worry about the run game at all.

The Chiefs Have Two Plays and the Rest is Seeing How Long They Can Hold Their Breath Underwater

If you watch Chiefs highlights, they are very different from Browns highlights. One play you'll see is Hill or Hardman on a jet sweep, and the other is a slant or post to Kelce. Those are the only plays they run on time. Because there is so much coverage down the field, Reid ends each playcall into Mahomes' headset saying, "...and if that doesn't work, I'm sure you'll think of something."
Which is what happens 75% of the time, according to my own feelings and beliefs. Mahomes is the best scrambler in the league and each play lasts about as long as a Youtube ad you can't skip. This is where the Chiefs make their money. Mahomes has such vision, scrambling ability, and unique-kind-of-pass ability, he usually figures something out. And Hill, Hardman, and Kelce each have unique advantages that they usually outrun the coverage.
But this also means that the Chiefs offense is built on tightrope walking. We are so often impressed with Mahomes because of the ravine on either side of the play; there are so many ways things could go wrong. You can say "But it's Mahomes! It never does go wrong!" This isn't true, he just usually makes up for his mistakes. He took an awful sack vs Miami, the longest in a billion years in the NFL, and threw what should have been a game-ending dropped pick vs Atlanta in his last action of the season. While you're still a hero, everyone only remembers the hits.

Their Defense Is Nothing To Write Home About

And that's why I'm not going to write you about it. Their defense only won them 2 games this year, their first game vs. Justin Herbert, and the game vs. Atlanta. Their defense is quite similar to ours, except that their rushers have been underachieving. Given their offense, their defense has been good enough.

They Are Super Bowl Hungover And Have Nothing to Play For In Their Hearts

In a documentary on his coaching career Bill Belichick said many people aim to scale the mountain; the tough thing, though, is once you have scaled it to stay at the top. It's a very rare accomplishment.
So are the Chiefs going to stay on top of the mountain? So far people have assumed that the Chiefs have been "playing with their food" and waiting to be really good until the playoffs.
But many people have also noted that the Chiefs often play "bored." They have coasted on their elite talent - their speed, Kelce's biceps, and Mahomes rain dance scrambling drills. It's like how I know how to make a really good sweet potato curry. Once I nailed that recipe, I just figured "why not do this every time? It's fun." Now I look like a sweet potato curry addict.
Not to get political, but I heard one (conservative) analyst say that this year that the incumbent lost because, "The first rule of elections is you never run the same campaign twice." Right now, the Chiefs are doing just that. The Titans just ran the same campaign twice, and they found out what happens. The Chiefs bear an eerily similar feeling to the 2011 Packers, 15-1 the season after their Super Bowl win, who came out and nose dived in the divisional round to the Giants. The Chiefs will not look as bad as the Packers did that game, but there is a real question of who will have the fire in this game.

People Were Busy Monitoring their Ebay Bidding Wars and Failed to Notice That Baker Mayfield Has Arrived

Football is so much a week-by-week thing, and our culture is so oriented toward hot takes and short videos, that people have completely missed the big picture arc of Baker Mayfield. While he still has flaws to clean up, they currently act only as a smokescreen to cover the fact that Baker Mayfield is now a force.
Mayfield's hyper-energetic playstyle and laser-zip passes earned him the Heisman trophy in 2017. By 2018, he showed this playstyle can work the exact same way in the NFL, as he gunned the ball wherever he wanted in 2018. A glimpse of what was to come.
In 2019, the wheels fell off the bus because, for the first time in his life, Baker didn't have an adequate structure around him. People fell into the delusion of thinking he was the magician, that his Heisman-ness and 2018 machismo could overcome the force of hyper-attentive defensive planning. It was a total disaster.
Because 2019 was gleefully received by people who rooted for Baker's downfall, associating him with the jocks they had hated in high school, the narrative of him being a bust reached escape velocity. From Browns' fans perspective, their 2018 hope was quickly enveloped by their long-tenured cynicism about the organization. In the off-season, his name was left on the back porch like a crate of used milk bottles to be picked up.
Then something happened. What Browns fans discovered, and the rest of Baker's bitter audience was displeased to remember, is there are about half a dozen young offensive minds who have emerged from Shanahan/Kubiak coaching tree who are a blink ahead of everyone on offensive scheming. With one of these directing Baker, he has adapted his raw college skills into a precision passing game that can take a game over. Because the first half of the year we were primarily a run team while Baker learned the system, and then we hit a spate of bad weather, people have missed this emerging phenomenon: the Browns are now a team that flows through Baker Mayfield, who has a scheme which he wields with growing dexterity by the week.
The numbers are there, from PFF grades to point totals, and people are wondering if it's real. But if you pay attention to the big picture, you know it's real. This is the real Baker Mayfield, and he's rolling into Kansas City on Sunday afternoon.

Batman and Superman

Where on the Chiefs team there is a gaping vacuum, the Browns have situated their best playmakers. While the Chiefs have the better overall receiving corps, the Browns' backfield packs the punch and versatility that Andy Reid can only dream of having. This gives the Browns' offense a naturally balancing aspect to it that the Chiefs offense lacks. Because the Browns' run threat is so real, it can never truly be ignored by a defense. When Stefanski gets what he wants early in a game, he is able to play defenses like a fiddle between the run and the pass.

The Browns Offensive Line

Billy Callahan is back on the sidelines, and the starters to the best offensive line in football are right on time. While they can so often be invisible, this game might truly come down to the differences between the offensive lines. If the run game gets going, and Baker has time to pick his target, while on the other hand KC has its hands full of Myles Garrett, the story of the game might be written right there.
It fits in well with this that the Browns are playing with heads full of steam, and I'm betting on our blockers in this game to set the tone early and often.

Kevin Stefanski, in a State of Ultimate Zen, Used Watching the Game On Sunday to Realize 486 New Things That He Could Use on Offense This Week

Much ink has been spilled about Andy Reid's record after a bye, which we can only presume comes because he looks at his play sheet and draws a squiggle in a new direction. Excellent work, Andy. While Andy was using his time in a theoretical head space, Stefanski was gifted an opportunity to self-scout and reach offensive enlightenment from the comfort of his own basement.
The truth is that, as Browns fans, we know that Stefanski has been switching things up each week. The best teams evolve throughout the season, and his usage of his players has been varied and dynamic depending on what the game calls for. While Reid has a proven track record, Stefanski is the wild card. While I am somewhat afraid he may overthink things, I think he retains the edge in playing his best saved tricks. With Callahan and AVP getting the ole band back together, they will be able to take their absolute best shot to upset the defending champs.

The New Browns Have Arrived, They are Angry, and They Are Playing with Nothing to Lose

"Just the 'Same Old Browns'! Just the 'Same Old Browns'!"
At the beginning of the season I wrote about the start of a Browns Way, that secret ingredient that touches each player and personnel member as they enter an organization, one that plants the seeds of success in them from the very start. While I saw various things pointing to the start of a Browns Way early in the season, I could never have dreamed to see it erupt into being like we did this past week in Pittsburgh, within a storm of events that not even the worst Browns' cynic could have foreseen.
The real evidence of the Browns Way for this season has been not a presence, but a silence. People across the nation woke up Monday quite surprised to find the Browns were in the 2nd round of the playoffs, and that's for a very specific reason: no one has been talking about us this year. Comparing this to last year, what this indicates is a lack of chaos. Every week last year - and for the last 20 years - it's been "this guy did this, this guy said that" and a maelstrom of drama would be created just to fill the headlines for a week. It emotionally exhausts the fans, and it definitely exhausts the players. Jeff Garcia said we were the most negative media culture he had ever been a part of.
You could definitely tell the change in Baker's interviews. Last year they were extremely tense, and a headline would usually be born of them. This year his entire composure changed; his focus was inward, on the team, and he wasn't going to go in for the shenanigans again this year. He was now protective of his team in a whole new way.
The focus that Stefanski has instilled in his team on the task at hand, while invisible to most eyes all year, has now been confirmed in the most dramatic of ways. With almost no change in his demeanor at all, he announced to the team he would not be able to coach them in the biggest game of the year. Suddenly, every player faced a choice, a reflection point: "Do I really believe in what we've been doing? Do I really believe in this team?"
We know the results. With their backs against the wall, outmanned, and understaffed, the Browns played the most physical, impassioned game they had all year. What we were happy to see on Sunday was not just that the Browns were winning, but also how they were winning. We knew this team was playing with confidence, determination, and moxie - and that they were doing it for each other. In a mysterious way, I think we witnessed the real life presence of the Browns Way, a focus and determination that doesn't change based on the circumstances.
Everyone who paid any attention could see: these were not the same old Browns.
I think Kansas City is going to need some luck this Sunday, if they are to stand a chance.

Anyone who is familiar with the firearms world knows of Heckler and Koch. The old joke about them is “H&K: Because you suck and we hate you”. This stemmed from their abysmal customer support, their lack of communicating with customers, and their exorbitant pricing.
Updated: for 2020 Heaven Hill is taking this crown in 2020 to the next level. Since I last wrote this in 2019 Heaven Hill has done everything in their power to continue this trend. Let’s look at this year before diving into the abysmal article they wrote.
--Heaven Hill released Toasted Barrel Elijah Craig as a “limited edition”. It was lazy and not particularly well done. They were late to the game and didn’t do anything to distinguish them from the other gimmicky toasted barrels. To top it off it wasn’t good and reviewers that pointed that out got flack from Heaven Hill.
--Elijah Craig Rye is still not in Kentucky.
--Elijah Craig 23 has been discontinued...again.
--Parker’s Heritage 2020 release is a gimmicky heavy char. It’s at least good whiskey but it still spits in the name of Parker Beam and what that release was supposed to mean. Meanwhile the William Heaven Hill gift shop releases continue to be outstanding and letting Parker’s languish in mediocrity.
--Their 85th anniversary has been announced, a 13 year old whiskey for $300 proofed down to 107 proof (in honor of the anniversary barrel entry but that’s not the barrel entry on this which is 125). You can buy Evan Williams 23 at the gift shop for that.
--Heaven Hill admits in this article:
https://blog.heavenhilldistillery.com/secondary-market-changing-american-whiskey/
that they really, really want to raise prices. If they raise Elijah Craig Barrel Proof to $100 a bottle will it sell? Probably. Will it have the love from the community that it has today? No. Let me assure you, based on their recent decisions they are looking at price hikes. “Oh we hate the secondary”. As it continues to fuel their sales.
--Last year I made the point that 12 year Elijah Craig picks were coming, now they are prevalent. Why not bring back the age statement?
Heaven Hill isn't like Sazerac, they rely much more heavily on their bourbon brands. They don't have Fireball to prop them up. When the bubble one day, who knows when, bursts, the enthusiasts will remember their actions.
Below were my 2019 points on why Heaven Hill hates you and you suck.
–Elijah Craig 12: Age statement removed
–Elijah Craig 18, supposedly returned as a result of age statement removal….at over 3 times the prior price
–Old Fitzgerald Bottled in Bond discontinued (bet you all forgot about that one)
–Heaven Hill 6 Year Bottled in Bond Discontinued
–Heaven Hill announces a 7 year Bottled in Bond to replace the 6 year….at almost 3x the cost
–Virgin Bourbon has its age statement removed
–Heaven Hill’s 3 of the last 4 Parker’s Heritage releases have been mediocre to exceptionally poor (2015 malt being the exceptionally poor)
–Heaven Hill finally announces a rye for the Parker’s release….for it to only be 8 years and 107 proof (2 years more than Pikesville and 3 less proof points) and 3x the price of Pikesville (I’m sensing a trend)
That list is pretty extensive for only being from the last 4 years-ish of changes. Some are more forgivable than others but when you stack them up it really seems like Heaven Hill is squarely against the enthusiast market. This hurts me all the more as I’ve been a Heaven Hill devotee for a long time. Elijah Craig Barrel Proof was my go to and my answer for “favorite whiskey”
Now some will say what about JTS Brown or Evan Williams Bottled in Bond? Sure, they still offer some value bourbons, less than before, but for how long? They’ve killed two bottled in bond brands already and removed the age from another fine affordable whiskey. More people will say what about ECBP that I mentioned above? Yup, it’s still a great 12 year barrel proof whiskey…but it’s not as good as what it was before the bottle change, for proof go search it on bourbon and see the reviews and comparisons.
Old Fitz Bottled in Bond was an exceptional whiskey for the price, they killed it I suppose so it wouldn’t be confused with the high end, expensive decanters.
Heaven Hill 6 year Bottled in Bond was beloved by Kentucky, the only place it was distributed, how much stock could it really have taken away and kept that enthusiast loyalty? And to replace it with a $40, 1 year older variant? While ALSO killing a 7 year 101 brand in Virgin bourbon.
There was a huge outcry when Elijah Craig lost its age statement and now they’re doing 12 year picks? Are there 12 year stocks or not? And to remove it for the current iteration of Elijah Craig 18 (a very tanic, over-oaked bourbon at $120) with a 3x price increase? A crime.
Lastly, people have been clamoring for an aged rye from the Parker’s series after a number of disappointing releases. What does Heaven Hill give us? An 8 year old rye at 107 proof. Two years more than Pikesville, 3 proof points lower, for $150. Granted it goes to charity and it will sell, but come on!?! You can walk into Kroger and get Knob Creek cask strength 2010, a 9 year old cask strength delicious Kentucky Rye for $60.
That’s not to say that dumping on the enthusiast community will hurt their sales. It won’t, Evan Williams black label is what, the 2nd largest selling bourbon in the world? They’ll sell every bottle of the 7 year bottled in bond they produce, every bottle of EC18, and every bottle of the Parker’s. They are a company and their goal is to make money. I get it. That doesn’t mean we, as the enthusiast community, should forget all their transgressions.

Goal: Flesh out a scouting list of all day 1 and day 2 prospects. Please let me know if I'm missing someone that you believe should be in the day 1 or day 2 conversation.

I haven't spent as much time following football this last season and wanted to make sure I'm not missing anyone significant for my upcoming reviews.

Quick Notes on Historical Draft Selectees

Wide Receiver
On average 13 receivers are taken in the first 3 rounds each year. To ensure this wasn't biased by outliers, the median is the same 13.
On average, 3.5 are taken in the first round, the median is 3. On average 4.3 are taken in the second round, the median is 3. On average, 4.4 are taken in the third round, the median is 4.
Just reviewing the numbers it usually plays out that one of the first 3 rounds have a large number of player taken. i.e. there is a run on receivers in one or two rounds, but never all three. Which is, if anyone remembers, me talking crap about Kiper for saying 30 receivers could go in the first 3 rounds when there have not been more than 17 taken at any point in the last 20 years and never more than 21 taken in the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft.
The point of this? We already know that on average there are 13 prospects (roughly) worth paying attention to and it's a reason why this list length is limited to 18 players because that should cover just about everyone that will receive notable draft capital.
Given the status of this class I wouldn't be shocked to see a 4-4-4 type of layout this year or even a 5-3-5 type of play. The feeling is we'll either overweight the top or middle of this class given what we know today, but I'll cover that in my first rankings post once I have a feel for all the profiles.

Running Back
On average 1.3 runners are taken in the first round. 2.9 runners taken in the second round. 3.3 runners taken in the third round. Suggesting on average approximately 7 runners are taken any given year.
Looking at most years this usually plays out in a 2-3-2 type of way where the first round is generally 0-2 runners, the smaller the first round the larger the second round, and when lacking there's usually a handful of COP backs that go in the third.

Quarterback
On average 3 are taken in the first round, 1 in the second, and 1 in the third. This is generally the way it plays out--everyone goes in the first, not much to write home about in the second or third unless there is a run at the top of the second after no one goes in the first.

So generally speaking, try to find the top 5 QBs, the top 7 RBs, and the top 13 WRs and once you have a top 25 fleshed out (minus TE) then start working on the lesser players and try to find your Cameron Meredith's, Tyrell Williams, and James Robinson's of the world.
Another neat point to make, I have 18 receivers listed below. Assuming this class is about average, approximately 5 of those names are already NFL outliers (in terms of draft capital). Even if this is a large class, 1 of those names will have outlier draft capital. Thinking about the class in a nebulous fashion I can't help but think about how Jermar Jefferson could be a day 2 pick--then I look at the list of names and think, "who can I cut from that top 7?" Someone will be upset.
Think about the 6 or 7 names currently floated around at QB in that first round conversation. We either have 5 first rounders or are completely misvaluing some of the lesser guys. Right now I think my bet would be 3-4 first round QBs with Mac Jones going in the Ryan Mallett range.

This list is not ordered or ranked in any way--it is purely a list. I did try to include higher ranked players toward the top so it made a little bit of sense when inspecting the list. (I think anyone's first thought would be "you're missing Ja'Marr Chase if you don't see him in the top 5-10 of a list).

#	QB	RB	WR
1	Trevor Lawrence	Najee Harris	Ja'Marr Chase
2	Justin Fields	Travis Etienne	Jaylen Waddle
3	Trey Lance	Javonte Williams	DeVonta Smith
4	Zach Wilson	Michael Carter	Rashod Bateman
5	Kyle Trask	Kylin Hill	Rondale Moore
6	Mac Jones	Kenneth Gainwell	Terrace Marshall
7	Desmond Ridder	Chuba Hubbard	Seth Williams
8	Jamie Newman	Zamir White	Elijah Moore
9		Master Teague	Chris Olave
10		Trey Sermon	Tylan Wallace
11		Mohamed Ibrahim	Dyami Brown
12		Jermar Jefferson	Dazz Newsome
13			Amon-Ra St. Brown
14			Kadarius Toney
15			Justyn Ross*
16			Amari Rodgers
17			Tamorrion Terry
18			Sage Surratt

Note on the TE position: While TE does appear to be a solid position this coming year--due to the way they are employed and variety of skillsets I don't really bother evaluating the position until after draft day. Some teams feature TEs like WRs, some teams allocate significant target shares to hybrid TEs (blocker-receiver) and then some good two way players end up relegated solely to blocking TEs. IMO it's just messy, more messy than any other fantasy position.

The results are in for Match 5. The winner is…
The Masters of Funky Action, with a score of 72 to Suburban Regalia‘s 64!

Category	Winner	Point Totals	Comments
Popularity	Masters of Funky Action	19-10	At 6.5 votes to 3.5, MFA took the lead early on and held onto it.
Quality	Suburban Regalia	20-21	Reasoning
JoJolity	Tie	23-23	Reasoning
Conduct	Tie	10-10

“Nngh… Gheh…” Lemon Demon couldn’t move much without hurting himself, and was beginning to black out as it was; Bert’s creations had been fended through, the pair had been separated, and he’d wound up tangled and chained up and unable to break free without some great risk to his own safety. Regardless, though, even slipping out of consciousness and feeling it, he kept up high spirits.
“Guess I’m beat… Guess this is some kinda karma. I always made phone cords so they get all tangled up on purpose… Whole design of the things was my idea.” He snickered a bit, turning his head as much as he could. “Okay, wanna help me down, Bert?”
The old troublemaker only heard silence back as his eyes shut.
“…Bert?”
Perseus Drakos and Casey Williams, standing at the bottom of the stairwell by the entrance to the basement room from which their opponents had come, were quiet, the older of the two putting a hand on the younger’s shoulder.
“Hey, Percy… Are you doing alright?”
“…why wouldn’t I be? We won… We beat a monster who killed tens of thousands. Got revenge for Rudolf…” Perseus answered, tone so even she couldn’t tell if he was forcing it or not, turning around and walking quickly towards the door, shrugging her hand away. “C’mon, we need to help those people still. They might still be alive.”
“…” Casey turned to watch him move, and didn’t let herself turn back towards the coffin of glass, which had been stuck with blade after blade and begun dripping something copper-scented all over the floor.
Whether he was being honest or not, Perseus was right. This mattered more.
The pair stepped into the trashed laboratory, unsurprised yet at once deeply concerned as they saw the bloodied forms of the University Board members laying there, large gashes in their heads, barely moving, at either side of some off-white mess in a pile of broken glass on the ground.
“They… They’re alive, for now, but… I don’t think they’ll last like this.” Casey expressed, trembling with her finger on the pulse of the restaurant’s owner. “We… Were we too late? Even fighting as fast as we could, were we too late?!”
“No, there…” Perseus’ voice cracked slightly. “There has to be something we can-” He paused, then, the Stranger guiding his attention to the ‘weapon’ on the ground.
Something the size of a ping-pong ball had begun to emerge from it.
There’s only a few hours left, meanwhile, to vote in the round’s first boss match, wherein a returning T3 character faces an ant-controlling boy and a shocking Kamen Rider!
Scenario:
Downtown Los Fortuna, The Capital Islets - Near City Hall
Council Chairperson Raymond Delwyn Shimizu was in about as good a mood as he could be, given the troubling circumstances. The city and everyone in it was in danger, and one of his closest allies here was currently on a dangerous mission to take down the entire leadership of the city’s most prominent crime rings, and still, petty bullshit, feuds and backroom deals and councilmen in people’s pockets continued to stand in the way of his efforts.
Nonetheless, he could not wear a worried face before the smiles and trust of the people he’d come to represent, let alone as he read over a speech that he’d slaved over just for today, for the latest anniversary of the city’s founding. It was a miracle of his legislative work that the islets had managed to be in enough of a state of repair to house any event at all, let alone as beloved as this one.
“That Andrew Tiffany fellow unveiled our city’s new flag at one of these foundational celebrations, couple years back.” A short, goggle-wearing guy with a red aviator cap spoke to Ray, and he regarded him unsuspiciously, as in spite of his comparable costume to certain ghosts around the city, the mayor of the town, unlike them, had a very large, prominent handlebar moustache covering up half of his face. “My first foundational celebration in office, that was… The mayor before me had just resigned after his jaywalking ring was exposed to the public by a clout-chasing whistleblower.”
Ray nodded, agreeing that such a thing, of course, was deeply scandalous, wholly deserving of a replacement by Mayor Rockin Red Robin. “I can tell you’ve inherited a lot of pressure… Especially needing to hunt down the Red Flying Man. I didn’t know you were the type to take action like that…”
“Of course, of course!” Mayor Red waved his hand, then, “in general, I think I must take my post more seriously, I’ve realized, especially having lost a brace of kinsmen myself to the tragedies of late. Tell you what, even… Add an addendum to your speech, that I’ve agreed to plan to get one of those ‘squads’ you want together, after this is done. I don’t flout my clout enough!”
“You… You mean that?” Would it be that easy? Would Ray have yet another of his campaign promises, the hardest he’d fought futilely for, officially realized?
“Certainly! So long as no abrupt scandals derail my entire political career, I should be very comfortably in a place to do so! No ulterior motives whatsoever! Only benevolence in this alliance!”
“Any last-minute setup you need done, Mr. Chairman? Mayor Red?”
The pair, then, looked to a tall teenaged temp they’d hired to help arrange for things, who wore a big beanie cap all the way down over his eyes… Thorburn, he’d said he was, and Ray, humoring the eccentric, accepted that for the sake of being a nice guy.
“Not that I know of…” He answered, looking around, then to the giant screens affixed to the outer walls of City Hall; climbing as well as he could, this volunteer had gotten them all installed easily. “Thanks, though. You’ve been as much help as half a dozen men or more… Uh. Maybe see if Golden Week needs anything?”
“Sure, yeah… That sounds fine. I’ll definitely do that.” Thorburn walked away, then, turning back a moment to conclude, “this commemoration… It’s going to be one to remember. Looking forward to the main event.”
“…” Ray wasn’t sure what to make of that, but before he could ask, the volunteer was gone. “Uh… Looks like it’s about time to get started. Wish me luck.”
As Ray stepped up, then, turning the mic on, he cleared his throat, earning the attention of the murmuring crowds as either hand rested on either side of the podium.
“Good afternoon, Los Fortuna. I am… Deeply humbled, that we have managed to get the former Capital Island in enough of a state of repair to host this event here once more, and would like to start with thanks to the relief and repair workers still spending hours on the islets every day.” He paused to allow the crowd to applaud, then opened his mouth again. “These first months as your council chairman have been-”
Royalty free music began to blare overtop itself in a discordant overlap, drowning out the interrupted words of the beginnings of Ray’s speech as the screens which had been displaying him to the crowd, suddenly, began to display static, then a form framed in silhouette.
“Hello, to everyone tuning in online and in-person,” the figure said, voice distorted and lowered several octaves digitally, “it’s your favorite and least favorite web personality, your best and your worst friend, here to steal the show!”
Several bumps began to emerge from the ground beneath Ray and other councillors waiting to speak, prompting them to tactically retreat from the gradually forming horned, mechanical-looking orbs with glowing green eyes which had begun to overtake the area.
“What the hell is going on..?”
Ray winced on his bad leg, then, before a much larger variant of the same, brighter in color, grabbed and tossed him into the soft grass. Amazingly, he landed harmlessly.
“Forget about all those corrupt jerks, just here to talk about themselves, alright? Talking about them is why I’M here.”
A Small House Just East of the Capital Islets, the Evening Before
Ever since she had suddenly awoken in Los Fortuna, Evelyn Ensanar had never once set foot outside of her home.
It had been…
Hell, how long had it been? Days had become weeks had become months, all within these walls and roof, and that would turn into lord knew how long. Wild. It's insane how big numbers can get.
Something tapped against the window.
It was a nice neighborhood they’d wound up in, her mother had optimistically said. The neighbors were friendly, and had a girl her age, and the school district was one of the better you could find in the urban area. She could start high school on a fresh note, with ‘good’ friends, and not just sit in front of a bunch of screens in a shuttered room, making more and more of an Evelyn-shaped impression in that ergonomic lounge chair she’d spent so much time in.
Yeah, mom.
Something tapped against the window.
Even as the island just West literally collapsed into pieces by some Stand Users’ hands, as the ground beneath her quaked, Evelyn couldn’t bring herself to go outside, and by some hand of fate, the place wasn’t destroyed; the security she’d installed over the months worked like a charm at keeping it floodproof, earthquake-proof, and most importantly, the lights plugged in and wi-fi working. That oh-so-nice high school was leveled and underwater without Evelyn even having bothered to google it.
Now the city was doomed to fall or whatever, everyone was gonna die if nothing was done, and while many others sprung into action, the fourteen year-old was as stagnant as the air in the room littered with posters of aliens and spaceships and electronics and their wirings strewn about the floor, waiting for their turn to be dusted off and tested out again.
Something tapped against the window.
It was a nice welcoming room, a welcoming room, if a bit dark. But hey, wasn’t that why electronics electronics were there, to lighten things up? Evelyn tried to part the messy blue bangs out of her eye, but it fell back into place immediately as she turned to chug another can of Forbidden Dew, jiggling her neon wireless mouse to put her screensaver to rest, revealing her cluttered desktop.
She wondered why she’d ever tried to live any other way in the first place. School was hell, and like hell, the gates were shut; people no matter how different or similar to her would forget her anyway. Even then, she’d tried time and time again to make the impossible work. God… I was so cringe back then. She was so miserable.
Something tapped against the window.
She looked towards the shuttered windows again, at the last vestiges of twilight fading through. It was funny, no, fucking hilarious, how that window had once shown nothing but city lights, but now, things were dim and half-sunk even when it was open. In the end, no matter how hard you try, everything leads to ‘Nothing’ in the end…
For Evelyn, however, it hadn’t been that way for a while. She’d broken past the boundaries that once corralled her, found a way in which she could be a part of a society she wanted, a pillar of it, never to be forgotten. To my viewers, to my fans, I’m an icon, someone admirable… Someone I can be my true self for, a world where I don’t have to fear any kind of fall. I’m a famous, popular creator to them! I am someone who matters… I need to act like that, don’t I? But… with everything going on… The end literally months away… I really need to snap out of this rut. I need to stay *me.***
CRASH!
A big, heavy rock flew through Evelyn’s window, something rubber-banded to it, and though she jumped in place and cursed under her breath, it was with a breathy sort of laugh while quickly assessing that it was absolutely not a bomb or something else. Just a ‘prank.’ She looked out to see who could be responsible, but felt like she’d only noticed a sort of glimmer in her eye, before turning towards the object in question.
Rubber banded to the rock was a bulky-looking manila folder, bearing the logo of that, uh… Church of Syrinx, she thought it was called? She didn’t pay much attention to them. Looked stolen, especially as she turned the rock over and saw a message painted onto it in neon.
NOT YOUR ENEMY, JUST SOMEONE WHO WANTS THINGS TO MOVE FORWARD
TALK AFTER STREAM. ONE REQUEST IN EXCHANGE FOR THIS
And then, it was signed with an emoji… One which made Evelyn chuckle to see.
How the hell did this guy fit that all onto one side of a rock? Well, whoever it was knew where she lived, so she supposed humoring this, talking to this stone age weirdo, was her best bet…
And no reason not to open up the folder in the meantime, looking its contents over. It was a collection of documents all stamped and labeled ‘CITY HALL.’
“‘Councilman Golden Week, Downtown District…’” She tilted her head, pulling more of the contents out. “‘Died months ago, replaced by another Stand User?’ ‘Ties to violent anarchist organizations?’” That made her chuckle, grin. “Based.”
From there, then, she thumbed over the contents, speed-reading every entry. Affairs, insider trading dirt, terrorism complicency… There was a veritable goldmine of blackmail material that had just literally been thrown through her window, all on the ‘good’ people at City Hall.
“There was that thing out there tomorrow, right?” She spoke to herself, looking out the destroyed window towards the sunken, half-rebuilt islets.
Already, an idea was starting to form. Evelyn would make her mark on history yet again. But she couldn’t get ahead of herself, of course. She had a stream to get underway, and someone to thank later. Her recording software was up and running, and for the audience, a figure in an astronaut helmet appeared onscreen, a text-to-speech voice accompanying speech bubbles emerging by the avatar’s side.

good evening fans and haters and five yr olds
it me
looks like we finally hit 100k subs. just happened 2day dont say otherwise. U alllllllllll know what that means right
tomorrow, (REAL) face reveal stream. i have some thing xtra special planned for it just u wait and see
all day tomorrow after noon. tell ur friends. it will b some thing new 4 me, and it, i promise, will be
epic

In high spirits, eagerly awaiting what would come next and planning already in their mind, UltraNebula67 proceeded to have one of the best evening streams they felt they’d had in a long time.
Downtown Los Fortuna, the Next Morning - En Route to Capital Island
Espiritu was not a fan of crowds, or of events. It was all noise, and content, and people hoping to speak their platforms in ways which belied their intentions. In Los Fortuna, it would always mean that there were so many more people than anywhere else he’d been whose sins he would see carried upon their backs, thinking nothing of how they would have to some day answer for what clung to them so fearsomely.
This city is the dead… I am as well.
Much had been on the jaguar’s mind in recent days… That Worm, he had taken something which Espiritu had valued dearly, a remnant of the only thing to truly ever be like him which had been stolen from him. He had taken and threatened one of the few people in this world who had known how to find it, and now, horrible loss had come. Failure, for Espiritu, was certain. Death would come.
Yet he walked towards City Hall with discomfort in his every step.
A message had been written in neon on the side of the Estate early that morning, as he’d come back from attempting to exercise, to find some sign of where the man might have taken the memento known as Golden State.

TODAY AT CITY HALL
MEN WILL BE RUINED
WILL YOU LET THEM?

As he read over those words, Espiritu felt as if he was being watched, heard a rustling in the grassy forests of the island.
This wasn’t a warning, then. It was an ultimatum. Somebody was calling him out, meant to drag him in front of the city for whatever purpose was running through their mind… Over the well-being of people whose lives meant nothing to him, whose suffering he could not even begin to give a damn about if he wanted to.
He would make his way out there as soon as he could.
“Oh shit, hey, what’s up?”
Espiritu was distracted from his thoughts on the matter by the teenaged voice cutting in to question his presence. Sitting on a bench close to the epicenter of the speech, half-watching the council chairman speak to somebody or another and plan it out, was the strawberry blonde biker known as ‘Lou’ Reed, sitting and having Wrenn Aflight, disguised only with a big scarf over his face’s lower half, lean into her shoulder slightly.
They seemed to be doing well, regardless of the grudges clinging to their backs, and Espiritu needed more information.
“You… Hello, yes. I am here for an important reason. I’ve received a warning that ‘something’ would happen to ‘ruin’ the men here, if I did not appear. Have you found what you said you would?”
It was a matter unrelated to Espiritu’s presence here, and Lou shook her head. “I’m working on it… And hell, maybe we’re looking into the same thing. Mostly I’m here so Wedding March fanboys don’t start trashing the place and demanding they reinstall their guy just because he died and came back.” She smiled softly, then, adding, “I doubt they’ll try anything, but honestly… I’d almost like to see them try, just gimme the excuse, you know?”
“That does not sound like what I am looking into.” Espiritu continued speaking through his Stand, looking to the idol next. “A message was spray-painted onto the Estate, by somebody nimble. Do you know anything about where your ally is? If he knows anything about it?”
“You mean Bang?” Wrenn tilted his head. “Tell the truth, I haven’t talked to him much at all the past few days! He’s been running around doing this, that, this other thing, and I haven’t been able to keep track of it… If I thought it was important, I’d try, though!”
“You two are no help, then,” Espiritu remarked, not resenting it, but not wanting to stick around long if he didn’t need to, either. He liked one of the two people present here, and the other had similar amounts of grudges to himself, but he would not waste his time here.
He began to walk away, then, the companionship between the two meaning little to him.
“If something happens, let me know.”
Before he could investigate any further, however, robotic-looking things began to emerge from the ground, round, and bumpy, and charging people, pushing them yet not seeming to hurt them, and Espiritu ran and ran away, desperate even more now to find what was going on.
Horrible, discordant noises were blaring, and a new, shadowed face appeared on the screens which had been displaying Raymond Delwyn Shimizu’s speech.
“Hello, to everyone tuning in online and in-person,” the figure said, voice distorted and lowered several octaves digitally, “it’s your favorite and least favorite web personality, your best and your worst friend, here to steal the show!”
More people were thrown, yet none harmed.
“Forget about all those corrupt jerks, just here to talk about themselves, alright? Talking about them is why I’M here.”
“Are you alright, chairman?!” Mayor Red helped Ray up with surprising strength, dusting him off and looking things over.
“Yeah… Just surprised a bit. If these are Stand constructs, their power is surprisingly low. Virtually indestructible, though…”
“I’m here for multiple reasons, really… The first, of course, is to celebrate my own milestones as a creator and community head! That’s right! UltraNebula67 has broken the 100k subscriber milestone! I just needed to do something special for that, right?”
A chat sidebar appeared on the side of the silhouetted screens, showcasing the series of emojis representing the viewers’ joy at this, as well as many talking about a face reveal or asking what the hell was being played.
“Rather than using my avatar for this… I’m going to make a face reveal, and explain today’s stream, the greatest pranks I’ve pulled yet, as myself! Are you hype? Get hype! Okay! Alright! Hyper! More hype! Okay, just a little less hype… Little more! Okay!” Nebula’s shadowy hand held up a remote, and they began to count down, voice growing less and less distorted, “in five… four… three… two..!”
The lights in the room came on dramatically then, and all were able to see the iconic streamer’s face for the first time, grinning in a sure, confident way as their blue hair looked quite natural rested with bangs covering up one eye.
Though they didn’t know to call them Evelyn, the world could see the teenaged girl behind Nebula for the first time.
(art by crimsonRedscarlet!)
This… This problem is being caused by a child? Of course it is. Espiritu was unsurprised, even if he knew that he wasn’t exactly a boomer himself.
For a single, shy moment, Nebula’s hand waved, with a little “hey..!” in a lower voice than the previous grandstanding, before she gulped, nodded, and narrowed her visible eye, grinning and raising her voice again. “It’s great to finally show my face to the world, and I couldn’t have picked a better special stream to do it! See, not only have I, as you can see, had these ‘minions’ of mine take over the steps in front of City Hall, but I even have a reason to!” A lofty folder full of documents was pulled into Nebula’s hands, ushered in by a cascade of air horns. “Things to be said about everyone here, councillors and mayors and DAs, oh my! All leaked to me by a great new friend!”
“Just to let you know I’m not kidding, let’s start with a ‘freebie,’ to show this stuff means business! To the guy no longer in office, the man who claimed to be pro-safety and was murdered anyway, then came back when nobody asked him to, Wedding March!” Documentation of the former Council Chairman filled the screen, as well as photos of his middle-aged face, transactional records indicating exactly what Nebula was about to say.
“That necromancied old-timer had been blocking so many reforms for the city, all because he’d been taking tons of under-the-table payments from Ugo McBaise’s VALKYRIE to set up the table for a private police force basically replacing the already-pretty-garbo police! He was even starting to fund his reelection bid! Talk about CRINGE, am I right? Now, a lot of these aren’t quite that, we’ve got affairs, embarrassing secrets, old photos, all of it spicy, and I’ve saved some of the absolute nastiest for later!”
“Is she just… Leaking corruption stuff?” Wrenn tilted his head, his own Stand beginning to recall where a moment ago he’d been trying to fight. “That sounds fine actually! I think she’s just doing this to get into the drama sphere, but people should be punished for that kinda stuff!”
“Honestly… Nobody’s been hurt yet, just shoved around.” Lou, too, stood down, slightly, a little amused, if anything. “Fuck it, sure. I’m along for the ride… What’s the endgame with all these gaming enemy robot things?”
“I’ve watched her streams before…” Wrenn admitted. “I thought her Stand ability was clicking on stuff and making it stop.”
“Now, I know what some of you longterm fans are thinking… ‘I thought their Stand ability was clicking on stuff and making it stop!’” Nebula threw her head back, laughing and waving a mouse around. “That’s just something this mouse can do, I’ll have you know! My Stand isn’t just defined by a weird new way to play ‘cookie clicker!’ No, no, by now you’ve noticed all those enemies from Iconic Video Game roaming around, just bumping into or throwing guys in their way… This, and how it created my usual avatar, are my REAL ability!”
“That’s right, this is a Stand reveal, too!” Pogchamps resembling Nebula’s avatar filled the chatbar, and Nebula revealed a pair of VR glasses-looking things, flipping them over her head. “This… Is ‘Wind of Fjords!’ I can connect to any alternate reality through this, any medium, and within a few hours, raise up anything from it I want! Though if I can’t control it myself, it has a mind of my own… I’m not controlling those bullying baddies down there, even if I did queue them up last night, for the record! But they aren’t the only thing I’ve summoned up, either.”
She was making this into a game. Espiritu was more and more appalled.
“See, much as I love the info in here… I’m not a drama channel. I’m a gamer at heart, someone who loves to play games, to really get involved with the community instead of just talking at people! So I’ve decided, since you know I’m not bluffing, whether or not all of this stuff gets leaked, is going to DEPEND now on a ‘game.’”
The mayor looked deeply concerned, there, and Raymond stood up a bit, looking to aides. “Find where they’re streaming from… I want to have a chat with this kid.”
A cheap-looking 3D model of a videogame card key spun around on the centralmost screen, the other two occupied by the 2D sprites which nonetheless successfully rotated and existed in 3D space. “That bad boy is what I call the ‘data key…’ It’s a device I made up and wrote a whole short story about, and you know what its power is? Its power is that if someone is holding onto it after I start a five minute countdown, they get to decide if the leak goes through and the whole online gets these notes or not! And right here, right now… It’s IN someone’s possession, at that very site! You’ll be able to identify them by a little triangle rotating above their head. And it has this weird little glitch where it just leaks everything automatically if more than two people are fighting for it at one-”
“I’ll explain from here.” Another voice chimed in, audible on the stream; this one was definitely masculine.
The crowd murmured and looked around, only for someone - the volunteer, Thorburn, in his big beanie cap - to rush out into the middle of the enemies in his waiter-looking outfit, then dramatically toss his disguise away, revealing shockingly to the world the distinctive hair and sleeveless outfit of Bang “Boogie” Bronson.
A triangular shape was rotating above his head, and a microphone was in his hand, which he spoke into, then, gazing out into the crowd as the streaming screen split to focus on both his face and Evelyn’s.
“You came here… I know you did. So why haven’t you come out yet?”
Everyone was silent, then. Almost everyone was confused, but one member of the crowd knew exactly who was being addressed.
“You have about five minutes now… You know that, don’t you? If you don’t steal this from me… We’re going to put things out that ruin basically everyone in city hall. And sure, most deserve that, but… It doesn’t make a g-goddamn difference to me, win or lose, whatever happens. What matters is that *you fight for it, tooth and nail.”***
…
…
Bang hung his head, shutting his eyes. “I see… So in the end, you can’t do it. Y-you talk big about taking control, but you’re hopeless… You don’t think it’s worth it at all.”

PRESUMPTUOUS!

A TTS device, different from Nebula’s usual, rang through the arena quite loudly, everyone confused and murmuring about who to send in, if they should bother at all, until the source came through; it was a fucked up-looking jaguar with a cell phone, the latter of which speaking words in tandem with his Stand emoting them.
“These people, these councillors… They mean nothing to me, and I do not want them in charge of me. Most could not care less. They will be weighed by what they have done for a long, long time.” Espiritu stepped closer, then, more and more of a disgusted look in his eye. “What you, and this… GAMER, have done, it is not justice. It is not even a test… You are acting solely to disrupt, solely for yourselves, and feeling important. It’s despicable, with what we’re on the verge of. With what is going to kill us in here.”
“WHOA! AN ENTIRE JAGUAR HAS STEPPED INTO THE RING, CHAT! BANG “BOOGIE” BRONSON IS GONNA BE FIGHTING A JAGUAR FOR THIS!” Nebula sounded genuinely excited, trying not to let the terrible and apt words get to her. This was going to be amazing.
“Espiritu…” Bang couldn’t help but smile, bouncing back and forth on his heels and tilting his head. “If you think so, th-then put a stop to it. I want to see you try… I want you to put everything you’ve got into this.”
“This is a waste of time. Nobody else is even bothering to join in, it is so much a waste of time.” Espiritu concluded, preparing a stance to make a movement. “Five minutes… You won’t last that against me.”
Bang bounced a spray paint can in his hand. “That’s the spirit.”
Nebula, then, made sure several airhorns blared at once, calling out…
“OPEN THE GAME!”
Location: Downtown, in front of City Hall. The area here is 75 by 85 meters with each tile being 5 by 5 meters. Espiritu starts on the left center and Bang is on the right center as represented by their respective character tokens.
The yellow tiles are cobblestone walkways, with the darker yellow tiles being the sidewalk that borders the road represented by grey tiles. On the road, there are parked cars represented by the purple rectangles, naturally these cars are locked.
The green dotted rectangles are designated greenery zones and each have shrubs and small thin trees inside them. They also each have a lamppost as represented by the yellow “X” marked circles, each lamppost is 5 meters tall.
At the top center is the City Hall Building, in the center of it is a podium and the lined part of it is the stairs leading up to the upper foundation represented by the main grey rectangle. The upper foundation is 3 meters tall. The columns supporting the front of the building are 5 meters tall, and while the entrance to city hall is visibly represented by the rounded rectangle, it is not enterable for this match.
There are several entities here created by Nebula’s Stand Ability and they come in two varieties. They are represented by the 12 red square faces and the 6 blue square faces and will be gone over in more detail below. Both types of entities are vaguely humanoid creatures and it’s pretty clear that they must be from some type of video game.
Goal: Be the one with the Data Key at the end of 5 minutes!
Additional Information:
The Data Key is not a physical entity, it is a program that attaches itself to a host. While inside a host a holographic triangle icon will appear above the host’s head. Outside of a host it looks like a floating pixel art key in a .25 diameter translucent bubble. While floating, the key will float slowly towards the center of the map, one meter off the ground at a slow walking pace. It is also not physically tangible to walls and objects, but will bind itself to the player that touches it.
In order to knock the Data Key out of a host, they must be attacked by one of Nebula’s entities mentioned above, more detail below on specifics. But if a person with the Data Key is attacked by another person directly, say with a punch or anything really that causes pain or injury, the Data Key will transfer itself to the attacker.
At the start of the match Bang will be the one with the Data Key.
The Red Entities are known as Chargers and as their name implies they will run at you and knock the Data Key out of you on impact if you have it. They have C Power, C Speed, and A Durability. Their charge is very much like a football tackle and meant to knock the target over. They have a 30 meter aggro range from their starting position and will detect and go after players in that range. They will prioritize whoever’s closer. If they are 30 meters away from their starting position or there is no target in aggro range, they will make their way back to the starting position until they aggro on something within range again.
The Blue Entities are known as Chucks and as their name implies they will grab and throw whatever they get their hands on at full power. If you have the Data Key on you, it will get left behind where the Chuck is as you get tossed. They have A Power, C Speed, and A Durability. They have the same aggro principles and detection as the Red Entities and when a player is in grab range, they will initiate a two handed grab and toss on whatevewhoever they manage to catch. They also seem to have impeccable aim and will always throw things to the farthest away greenery area. Except the two on the road, those two will throw you towards the roof of City Hall that is visible on the map.

Team	Combatant	JoJolity
Masters of Funky Action	Bang “Boogie” Bronson	“Face forward, don't attack me! It's not gonna hit, anyway!” You are not worried about these things at all, in fact you can make use of these things too. Use Nebula’s Stand Entities here to your advantage!
Black Hill Estate	Espiritu del Alocatlal	“Great misfortune is on its way here.” Well since these things will be getting in both your ways, maybe they could be useful to you. Use Nebula’s Stand Entities here to your advantage!

Link to the Official Player Spreadsheet
Link to Match Schedule
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Listen up you retards.
Some of you have been enjoying a fling or two with the exotic foreigners like NIO, Li Auto, XPeng, SOLO, etc. Sure, you are a tall retard. You are just attracted to small, cute EV cars (or in the case of SOLO, retarded looking small Canadian EV with 3 wheels). They happen to be Asian but no, you don’t have a yellow fever or some kind of Asian fetish.
You retards often underestimate the emotional and financial ramifications of your actions. Papa Musk has been good to you. TSLA has made you lots of tendies in the past. But today, we are going to look into why happily invested retards like you cheat on TSLA and why that’s a mistake.
NIO’s been making me shit load of money. I am never going back to Papa Musk
I know it’s difficult to learn your lessons when you are retarded, but haven’t we gone through this before? You don’t bet against Papa Musk. You tried with NKLA and thought that talent-less hack Trevor Milton was some kind of second coming of messiah until you saw that fake ass video of their truck “rolling down the hill”.
Now I am seeing that you moved onto William Li. Sure, the guy is no Trevor Milton. He seems to have the right background (i.e. education, past track record as an entrepreneur, etc). He also has right investors in NIO, such as Tencent, Temasek, Baidu, Sequoia, Lenovo and TPG. But Musk already has his trump card called Model Y and I will explain to you what will happen over the next 12 months or so.
Chinese EV Demand
According to Barrons, China started to crack down on gasoline cars few years back. Due to congestions and pollution in the major cities, Chinese government started limiting the issuance of license plates in China. Not only is it difficult to obtain license plates for gasoline cars (i.e. it’s almost like a lottery system), the cost to obtain one is more expensive. Then let’s say somehow you were able to obtain a license plate and was able to afford one, there is another layer of complication: you can only drive gasoline cars on certain days of the week.
But with EVs, the government makes it much easier to get an EV plate than gas plate. There is better parking, less tolls, and no restriction on driving days. This is shifting the demand to EVs because the process is much easier to obtain a plate for EVs and overall cost of ownership is lower.
Model Y’s Importance
Some of you ungrateful retards may have been disappointed by the announcements from the last Battery Day. But Papa Musk, did give you updates on the future of the battery technology (which will be covered on a separate rant), but more importantly on Model Y.
Per Bloomberg, Tesla’s Chinese version of the Model Y, which will be locally made in China, will be a single biggest threat to NIO’s growing dominance in the electric SUV segment of the Chinese EV market over the next 12 months.
NIO was doing superbly lately but on Friday, Citron Research released a bearish report on NIO that increased competition from TSLA will become more intense with the launch of Model Y in China.
The biggest advantage will be the price point. When Model Y is released in China (manufacturing will begin in 2021 and delivery also expected in 2021), Papa Musk said he will lower the price to $41,000 (vs. $49,900 in US). Papa Musk also said that monthly Model Y sales will reach 30k units.
In comparison, NIO’s ES6 SUV starts at $54,000. When it comes to economy of scale, NIO is unable to match TSLA (yet) and as result, TSLA will be able to sell their Model Y at a lower price point, which will force NIO (and others) to accept a wave of price cuts to their premium electric vehicle lineup. That means while TSLA keeps printing profit and increase their revenue, the rest will have to eat the loss until they can scale up as well. (But by then, Musk will be on another money making innovation, the Battery).
So what does this mean over the next 12 months?
Just a week ago, Tesla registered its Model Y with the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. This indicates the start of production in China (upon issuance of final production permit for Model Y from the government). Yes. Papa Musk said production will begin in early 2021 but it looks like he’s ahead of schedule.
Additionally, there are reported sightings of Tesla doing road tests of its Model Y in China.
NIO, which competes in the luxury segment of the EV market in China, recently reported a new monthly sales record earlier this year, delivering 3,740 vehicles in a month.
That’s right retards. For anyone who wants to argue that NIO will catch up to Tesla soon and match its scale, that isn’t going to happen anytime soon. Tesla can deliver 3,740 vehicles in its sleep. From the get-go, Papa Musk is shooting for 30,000 vehicles of monthly Model Y sales in China and that’s only Model Y volume.
If that’s not the nail in the coffin, then consider the risky strategy that NIO is taking on its battery strategy. While Papa Musk is developing an entirely new battery technology that will last longer, and hold the charge longer, NIO chose “Battery as a Service” strategy. What is that, you ask?
Well, one of the key battlegrounds for the success of EV market will be the ability to build and maintain a more extensive EV charging infrastructure. China and US are looking to expand its charging network (i.e. number of charging stations) and both countries are investing into this infrastructure.
However, NIO has taken a different approach to charging, focusing on battery swaps rather than charging stations. Rather than leveraging EV charging stations (that all other EVs will use in China, including Tesla), NIO is building its own network of “battery-swap stations”. What this means is that NIO customers can only use NIO’s “battery-swap stations” where they have to buy vehicles without the battery, and instead sign up for a monthly subscription service that gives them access to battery packs depending on their needs.
Now ask yourself. Would you rather own EV with its own battery that you can just charge wherever, or would you rather buy one without a battery, and sign up for a subscription service where you have to swap the battery at one of its swap stations?
Conclusion: Here are the key takeaways for you retards who failed to read my rant above

NIO can’t compete on scale with Tesla. They recently achieved a record monthly delivery of 3,740 vehicles while TSLA can do that in its sleep. Papa Musk is expecting monthly delivery of 30,000 units for Model Y alone.
Because they can’t compete on scale, Tesla can produce and sell Model Y at a lower price point. This will force Chinese EV competitors to a wave of price cuts, which will result losses for them but not TSLA.
Model Y is about to start production and already conducting road-tests. It is on track to launch in 2021 at $41,000 (vs. NIO which starts at $54,000)
NIO’s “battery as a service” subscription program is retarded.
Tesla will moon again in 2021 once you assholes come back to senses.

This is Article #3 of my rant series
Article 1 - CRSR - Corsair $40c May 21, 2021 Exp
Article 2 - SOLO - EV Play for Special Kind of Retards

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DCNext Proudly Presents…!

STARMAN

Issue #8: Storm Force

Arc II: Fire Opal

Written by Fortanono
Edited by VoidKiller826
<< Previous | Next >> (coming February)
-=-=-=-= 🌟 =-=-=-=-
Part 1: Jennifer Knight
”Now!” Ted barks through my earphone. I dash between the rooftops of a series of old brick buildings and look down. Courtney and Jack are shooting blasts of energy through the dense pale-green fog that fills the streets around us; Rick is looking around, clearly bored but unable to actually do anything. Darrell is above the arena, making sure everything goes smoothly, and Aunt Sandra is somewhere around here but I have no actual idea where. I jump down, twisting my dial to the “Bubble” mode as I land. Quickly, I summon a purple-black bubble around me, trapping just a bit of the Mist’s fog in it. I’ve successfully separated part of the Mist from the rest of him, but I’ll have to be quick about what comes next.
The small tendril of fog in my bubble seems to realize what’s happening as I dart as far as I can down the street. I see it bend and contract, diving into my throat. I start choking; it becomes harder and harder to breathe, but I just have to go a bit further out. Eventually, as I begin to get light-headed, I release the bubble and switch my dial to “Panic.” A burst of energy surrounds me, knocking the fog away from me and out of my mouth. I cough a bit before straightening myself and speaking into my microphone.
”He’s gonna try to reassemble himself,” I say. ”Darrell, it’s your move.”
”Right,” Darrell says. I can’t see him above the battlefield, but I immediately notice his presence as dozens of tiny blue-and-red drones drift down from the sky, each one with fans. They surround the Mist’s missing piece, keeping him in one place, still separate from the cloud that Jack, Rick, and Courtney are dealing with.
”Fantastic,” Ted radios in. ”Mist’s primary goal will always be to keep himself together. It’s a sort of side-effect to his powers. Keep him there, and the rest of him’ll follow eventually, no matter how hard he resists.”
It takes a few seconds, but the giant cloud of fog slowly starts drifting to meet up with the smaller one. Courtney and Jack rush over to the area with the fans, both concentrating fire on the one position where they’re merging. I turn my dial to “Energy Blast” and add my own energy to the mixture. Slowly but surely, the green fog begins to get thicker, and soon enough, the figure of the Mist begins to take hold.
“I was hoping you guys still thought I was in Gotham,” he mutters in a raspy voice. I stare at the face of the villain that Ted had been so worried about, remembering how we had prepared for this battle for over a month before he felt comfortable sending us out. He looks old, weak; in his eyes, I see a man who knows he’s been defeated, a man who may have once been a titan but whom old age has gotten to. I smile as Aunt Sandra decloaks and cuffs him with a pair of power-dampening handcuffs. Nearby, a police car pulled up and Clarence, one of the older O’Dare brothers, escorts him away.
“I will be back,” he hisses. “You should all know that.”
I know that it’s still possible for him to come back once again, that he had even come back when the world thought he was dead. There is a sincere promise in his words. But even so, seeing the frail figure of Opal City’s legendary villain once again defeated, I smile.
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Rick, Darrell, Courtney, and I re-enter Ted’s workshop once again; Jack and Sandra split from us and went back to the Stargazer. As we descend the stairs, I could tell that Ted was over the moon.
“Wow,” he says to himself. “Just… wow. I’ll be entirely honest; I was certain we would have had to retreat at some point during that battle. I did not expect this to be one and done.”
“Well,” Rick chuckles, “I think the guy’s just a fucking pansy. No offense; I get why you couldn’t beat him or whatever, but like, the dude tries to make us go to Gotham so he didn’t have to deal with us. Again, no offense; I’m sure you were, like, a great hero in your time, of course.”
Ted laughs heartily. “None taken. I’m sure that as he’s gotten older, he’s had to rely more on cheap parlor tricks like the one in Gotham. I, for one, definitely knows how the aging process can take a toll on your abilities. I’m just… so happy that bastard is behind bars again.”
Courtney nods. “Here here.”
“Anyway,” Ted says, “I’d like to let you know that our little merry band of heroes is going to get a fifth member fairly soon.” His tone sours as he continues to speak. “My sister… she’s a vapid idiot, so you can understand that we haven’t talked in a long time, but her son started developing metahuman powers. And he started going out as a hero. She told me that she couldn’t stop him, so she wants him to at least have more support.”
“Ah, great,” Rick laughs. “Because I was just thinking that we didn’t have enough people who sucked at being heroes on this squad.”
“Rick,” Ted glares. “Please cool your behavior. I’ve seen what you’re able to do on the field and I must say: it’s pretty bad too.”
The door to the workshop slides open once again, and a new kid walks down the stairs. He’s got dark brown hair that’s just barely covering his eyes and is wearing a grey T-shirt and jeans. He waves to us as he walks down the stairs to meet with us.
“Hi,” he says. “Name’s Aaron. Aaron Munro. I’ll be working with you guys for a while.”
“He’s been helping people in his hometown of Liberty Hill as the great ‘Iron Munro’ for the past few months now,” Ted explains. “Unfortunately, Aaron, when you decided to do that, you perhaps made the worst mistake you could have made in this line of work. You made your identity public. Tell me, why’d you do that.”
Aaron sighed. “I… I just thought it was a small town, and I figured we all knew each other already, and… I guess I wanted to be recognized for my deeds or something.”
“I’m sure you’ll feel sufficiently recognized when your mother gets a bullet in her skull,” Ted says bluntly. “Let’s be clear: I hate the lady, but not that much. Come with me.” Ted beckons Aaron to the far corner of the workshop.
I stare blankly at what’s happening in front of me; Ted’s a hardass, but this is… a bit much even for him. Clearly, this was about more than just business. I had heard small things about Ted’s sister before but never met her or her family. Whatever happened to separate them had to have been a big deal.
Ted shows Aaron to a costume on a stand in the corner; it consists of a brown-and-grey bulletproof bodysuit with metal accents and a full face-mask made entirely of metal. “This,” Ted says, “is going to be the new you. I’m calling it: ‘Metalsmith.’”
“Th-thanks,” he says. He looks frustrated; I can tell that he’s not happy to be here, but he’s holding it all in. “I--I just have to say that… this really isn’t my style. I’m trying to go for a friendly hometown hero vibe, and having my whole face covered up… It just doesn’t seem right.”
Ted grimaces. “You did the hometown hero thing, and you failed. You showed your face to everyone. Metalsmith isn’t the friendliest guy around, but he’s safe and so is his family. If you wanna talk about alterations, feel free to tell me. But keep in mind that I have to work to preserve your safety first.”
Aaron nods. “Fine,” he says.
I look around the room; all of my teammates are either looking at the spectacle in front of them, or looking at their phones. Starved of anything else to look at, I turn to look at Rick’s phone. He’s responding to a text message from someone named Luisa; I think she’s a girl in his class or something. It doesn’t quite look like a message about normal things teenagers talk about, though.
hey, so I have a confession to make, the message begins. John and Maya and i, we knew about you being hourman and everything before we met you. we’re still your friends, we always were, but we also want to get your help with something we’re working on. a project that involves metahumans, basically. let us know if you’re interested.
I immediately turn away from the message on the phone. Clearly, this is something I’m not supposed to know about, but now that I do, I can’t stop thinking about it. Some other people want Rick to help them with… something related to his powers. It sounds really shady; should I tell Ted about this? It could be a conflict of interest, whatever it is. On the other hand, Ted doesn’t seem like the most level-headed person to deal with this. Who knows; maybe it’s for some sort of superhero stunt show or something really cool, and I’d be denying him access to that.
Whatever. It’s not my problem right now. It was never meant for me.
“Hey,” Aaron says. “You here? You listening?”
I look up; Aaron is standing right in front of me, his hand outstretched. “Sorry,” I say, shaking his hand. “My name’s Jennifer. It’s nice to meet you.”
-=-=-=-= 🌟 =-=-=-=-
Part 2: Sandra Knight
“Well, that could’ve gone a lot worse,” I say, currently on the back of Jack’s Star-Cycle. Jack apparently figured out that he could make his motorcycle fly if he used his Cosmic Rod, which is both hilarious and something that neither Ted nor David would ever begin to consider trying out. Which is why Jack is so great; he’s questioning everything, figuring out new ways of doing things, and making a motorcycle fly.
Feeling the wind rush against my face, I’m taken immediately back to my rebellious college days and my early stints as the Phantom Lady. It’s nice, almost nostalgic, but still different enough. We come to a descent in the back of the Stargazer, and Jack locks up his motorcycle.
Hope comes out the back door to greet us. “Glad you could make it,” she says. “Cutting it a little close, though, I gotta say. The meeting’s in less than 5 minutes.”
Oh, right. The meeting with our potential client. The Mist tends to give a lot of people tunnel-vision; I had completely forgotten about this.
“Sorry about that,” Jack chuckles. “You know how it is, going out, saving the day. Maybe someday, you should give it a--” He cuts himself off as I glare at him. His expression turns more serious. “I’m so sorry,” he finally says. “I forgot about what happened with you and the Mist.”
Hope sighs. “It’s fine,” she says. “We can deal with this another time. He’s behind bars yet again; he can’t hurt anyone else. That’s the best news anyone could hope for.”
We walk into the office; Jack takes a seat, ready for the meeting. “So, this new client. What’s the deal with them, again? Missing kid? Brother’s a supervillain?”
“She has some information on who might have been behind the prison break a few months ago,” I say.
“Okay, wow,” Jack responds. “That’s sort of a big deal.”
We hear the door swing open. A young woman with light brown skin and shoulder-length black hair walks in. She’s wearing a sleeveless white shirt and black winter coat; on her left hand is a tattoo of the Superman “S” sigil. “Look who’s here,” Jack smiles. “Glad you could make it.”
The woman sits down in front of Jack, putting her coat on the back of the chair. “Yeah, well, me too,” she sighs. “Listen, if you have any witness protection-type deals or whatever, can you hook me up with one of them? I’m honestly… I’m honestly terrified right now.”
I nod. “Well, there are a few options there. My cousin can easily create a fake ID and get you out of the city without anyone noticing. If you want to go through a more legitimate program, Hope here has contacts with the police who can get you into proper witness protection.”
“I’ll take the first one,” she says. She reaches out and shakes Jack’s hand. “Name’s Sarah. I’ve been working for Maxie Zayas for the last few months; I needed work, and he seemed really nice at first.”
Maxie Zayas. That’s going to be a tough one. A big-time club owner and crime boss, following in the footsteps of his father; I was personally involved in putting his old man behind bars. All of Opal City’s heroes know about him, but we’ve never been able to really do much about it. A few years ago, David flew into Maxie’s club and arrested him straight-up for drug trafficking. Not 12 hours later, he was out, cleared of all charges.
This isn’t going to be a battle we can fight with force.
I walk closer to the table where Sarah and Jack are seated. “And you believe that Zayas is responsible for the recent breakout?”
Sarah nods. “At some point, I began to hear whispers that he was planning some meteoric takeover of Opal City. He said he needed something to distract the local heroes in the meantime. And then, a few days before the big event happened, I saw him talking to that card guy who broke them all out.”
“Jeremy Tell,” Jack says.
“I… I couldn’t be a part of whatever he was doing,” Sarah says. “I grew up in Opal City. Believe it or not, I loved you guys.” She points to me. “I actually had a poster of you in my room. I thought Zayas was a harmless dude who just sat around. It wasn’t a big deal, whatever he was doing. The people he broke out… I remember seeing what they did on the news. I had to talk to you.”
“Glad you did,” Jack says. “Hey, that’s awesome that you had a poster of Phantom Lady. Wait, why aren’t we selling posters?” He turns to me. “Can we do that?”
I laugh. “Topic at hand,” I smile.
Mia leaves, and Hope walks up to us. “So… what’s the plan then? We can’t both take down Zayas and the people he released, right? Those are two huge undertakings.”
“That may be so,” I say. I pause for a second. “We may not need to. If we can get the All-Stars to handle the escaped convicts, we could divert all of our attention towards figuring out what Zayas is planning.”
“Okay,” Jack says, “but how are we going to take him down? David tried, and he failed miserably. The guy’s just super well-connected. We can’t just storm in there, can we.”
I smile. “Jack, sweetie. There are other ways to do this kind of work that don’t involve punching all your problems away.”
-=-=-=-= 🌟 =-=-=-=-
Interlude VIII: Hour of Espionage
”Positions, everyone,” Al Carlyle said through the microphone. ”We need to set the scene just right.”
Carlyle stared at the multitude of cameras around him. He watched as Luisa, Maya, and John made their way to the docks. Turning to another monitor, he watched as several stealth-agents readied their sniper rifles, hiding on rooftops, in windows. He pressed a button on the console in front of him; a series of machines around the docks whirred to life; to the outside observer, they looked like they were doing nothing, but Carlyle knew that they were the key to this mission.
“I have to say,” Luisa said apprehensively. “I’m really worried about this. These snipers… if he doesn’t show up, they will kill us, right?”
”11:49 PM,” Carlyle reiterated. ”Unfortunately, for this to work, the snipers have to be steadfastly committed to their mission. The dude doesn’t get visions about things that could happen. He gets them about things that will if he doesn’t intervene. But don’t worry; we’ve run several experiments with the energy emitters. Every time, he shows up right on cue.”
Luisa nodded. ”Okay. And what’s the deal with those machine things? You’ve explained them to me before, but I’m not good at remembering all the science stuff. Just isn’t my thing.”
”They emit a specific frequency of radiation that, for reasons unbeknownst to us, seem to massively increase the likelihood that Rick gets a vision in that area. We found residual traces of it naturally occurring in almost half of Rick’s usual visions; when we massively crank up the numbers, he always seems to show.”
The three kids sat down at the dock. After a few seconds, Carlyle spoke up. ”We’ve gotten confirmation that Rick has now left his house. The snipers can now evacuate the area. The three of you, just act normal. It’ll take the better part of the hour for him to get here, so get comfortable.” As soon as they had settled in, the masked snipers quickly ran off, lowering their weapons and quickly changing into civilian wear like clockwork.
John was the first to speak up after Carlyle went silent. “So, what, we’re gonna wait, like, 58 minutes until he gets there? Well, this will be boring.” He pulled out a couple of joints from his pocket. “Anyone want some?”
“We’re on duty,” Maya said. “I don’t think it’s worth it.”
John shrugged. “What? We have to sit around, pretend like we’re doing something, and then act all buddy-buddy with him when he shows up. It’s not like we’re taking down Basilisk; this is easy shit. It’ll be fine.”
Maya shook her head. “We should wait.”
John chuckled. “Alright, fine, you win. But we’re popping these babies out as soon as the man of the hour gets here. Got it?” He shoved the joints back into his pocket.
“Alright, whatever you want,” Maya smiled. “Just don’t come running to me when Carlyle yells at our asses for being high on the job.”
Carlyle watched the security footage, smiling and shaking his head to himself. Behind him, William Vickers walked up. He was the same age as the rest of them, but he had proven himself remarkably more mature than the others, quickly becoming the group’s de facto leader.
“Sorry to bother you at this time,” William said. “I gotta talk to you about another developing situation.” Carlyle hesitated, before standing up and dusting himself off. The two of them walked into the next room, where they began to talk.
“Basilisk activity’s been at an all-time high for the past few months,” William finally said. “Just recently, they’ve opened up 3 new cells in Germany, and are pulling in a remarkable number of recruits in Indonesia and Malaysia, to name a few. There’s also been a lot of restructuring; several smaller cells have been suddenly relocated to South America for some odd reason. If the ASA’s gonna be able to keep limiting their spread, we need more agents, and they need to be trained.”
Carlyle nodded. “Yes, yes,” he said. “I’ll remind you that you’re looking at only a small piece of the bigger picture. We are only a tiny fraction of what the ASA has to offer, and the adults are well aware of these issues. That said, you’re not wrong; we need all the help we can get. That’s what we’re working on right now.”
“Rick Tyler,” William affirmed. “He seems strong; he’d be a great start. But one metahuman won’t be enough. We need more metahuman soldiers, or at least, soldiers equipped with energy weapons and similar tech. The capes have been doing it for years; it works. But somehow, we can’t seem to find nearly enough people willing to serve. Maya’s the only metahuman on our squad right now, and her powers are still very much a wild card in combat scenarios.”
Carlyle nodded. “Yes,” he finally said. “Well, I don’t think that just recruiting a bunch of people is the right way to go. If we do that, we run the risk of potentially exposing ourselves to a large number of double-agents. But… if this lead pans out, there might be a way to enhance the prowess of the agents we already have.”
William perked up. “Yes? Do tell.”
“Presumably, Rick could gain access to the technology that Starman and his companions use to fight crime. Luisa could take a staff, you could take the blacklight…”
“I’m not the type of guy to stay in the shadows,” William said. “Have you seen my attempts at infiltration? Not my strong suit. Appreciate the offer, though.”
Carlyle nodded and smiled. “Well, whatever happens, this new member could help us more than we initially thought.”
-=-=-=-= 🌟 =-=-=-=-
Part 3: Jack Knight
I pull up to a street corner a few blocks away from what many Opal City residents affectionately refer to as the ‘Zayas Strip.’ Hope is sitting in the back seat, done up to look like a completely different person, and Sandra’s already run off to do some good old-fashioned sleuthing. The prosthetic nose I’m wearing feels so uncomfortable already; couldn’t we just have gone for the blond hair dye and nothing else?
Sandra materializes on the hood of her green convertible, startling the bejeezus out of me. “Password for the night is ‘Prometheus,’” she mutters.
“Alright, alright,” I say. “Hey, I know it’s technically your car and all, but maybe don’t jump on the hood, okay? That was probably the biggest scare I’ll have all night unless Grant decides that the Olympia is his new favorite haunt.”
Sandra ignores me. “You two head into the bar; I’ve given you fake IDs for the absolute worst-case scenarios, but you shouldn’t need to wave them around. I’ll never be too far behind, but as usual, you won’t see me. Got it?”
“Clear as ever,” I smirk.
“So,” Hope says from the back seat, “you ready to raise some hell?” Her usually-red hair is now jet-black, and she’s wearing these bright blue contact lenses that accentuate her eyes. If I didn’t know who she was, I would never have recognized her in the first place. Let’s just hope my disguise is just as good.
Sandra vanishes and we walk a few blocks further down Harris Street. As we walk down the street, the quiet townhouses are quickly replaced with a completely different atmosphere of bustling nightlife and flashing neon lights. On both sides of the street are a series of Zayas-owned businesses: strip clubs, brothels, bars, casinos, even a fight club at the far end of the street. It’s almost disorienting; look, I’m not the nicest guy in the world, never pretend to be, but I promise I’ve never been in a place like this. Not quite like this, at least.
Nestled in the middle of the brilliant signs and faint bouncing of club music is a single building not illuminated by lights. The top floor is taken up by some sort of high-end brothel with a sign reading ‘The Elysian Fields’ on it. The stairs that lead down to the bottom floor are guarded by a dude who seems absolutely ripped--like, probably-a-meta ripped--and a sign at the front reads “Olympia Nightclub.” Zayas’ personal shining gem, for those who were affluent enough to get an invitation.
I walk up to the bouncer and am immediately taken aback as I realize who exactly it is. Tony Woodward, aka Girder. Former Flash villain who got in a few fights with David before being broken out. As I get closer, it becomes clear that this dude’s entire body is made of rusted metal. He speaks up in a deep voice as we approach. “What’s the code?”
“Prometheus,” I say.
Girder bows his enormous metal head and steps to the left. “Enjoy.”
As we walk in, the last trace of the booty-bounce music that I could hear vanishes as it’s replaced by a classical violin tune from a distant speaker in the corner. The walls are blue plaster; segmenting the walls are a series of white column-like decals meant to invoke ancient Greek architecture. The bar in the center of the room is also surrounded by similar white columns. On the far end of the club is a wooden stage, currently unoccupied, and a few poker tables. Still not nearly half as good as my restaurant’s interior design.
The bartender walks up to us as we take a seat. His head is completely shaved; from what I can tell from the rest of his body, he appears covered in tattoos of vines and flowers. “Don’t think I’ve seen you lovely pair before around here,” he says.
“No, you wouldn’t have,” I smile. “We’re new in town. Heard about this place from an old military buddy of mind, and as it turns out, we got just enough money to spend on a nice place like this.” I reach out my hand and he shakes it. “David Vosberg. This is my girl, Rita.”
Hope offers her hand as well. The bartender shakes it. She turns down towards the cocktail menu, looking over the options. Her face shifts a bit as she reads over the various options; each one seems to be based on various tragic events that Opal City has suffered through. Down the list, I see the ‘Swift Hydro Plant’ as their fancy new drink, the ‘Prison Break,’ the ‘Doll Killer’--complete with a miniature doll in Martha Williams’ likeness--a drink simply labeled ‘The Mist,’ and, the final drink on the specialty list, the ‘Fallen Hero.’ The description listed it as ‘a tribute to the asshole who tried to bust us finally kicking the bucket. May aliens continue to do what we never can.’
My stomach drops. Fuck, while we go out and bust our balls to make this city a better place, the people in this club turn around and laugh at our failures. Laugh when one of us dies. I feel my blood boiling. I need to stay in character. I can’t blow this for all of us. Gritting my teeth, I take a few deep breaths before sucking it up.
“What’s the matter?” the bartender asks. “Can’t take a couple of dark jokes? Lighten up, man.” He gives me a pat on the back like I would ever be okay with that.
“Sorry,” I say. “It’s just… Well, let’s just say I lost someone personal in the hydro plant attack. One of, uh, those flying shadow things cut my brother open. I’ll take… I’ll take a Fallen Hero, I guess.” At this point, I’m flying by the seat of my pants. I’m definitely excited to get that drink.
“And I’ll take a Mist,” Hope says.
“Damn,” the bartender says. “I’m sorry about that. I didn’t realize that you could… I’m sorry to hear about your brother.”
“It’s fine,” I say. “You couldn’t have known.”
The bartender serves our drinks and we quietly sip at them. Aside from a few regulars, nothing much seems to really be happening.
I feel a slight breeze on the back of my neck. I turn around; nestled in my suit is a small piece of paper. The writing on it reads, ”Can’t find Zayas, but did find something else big. Meet me outside? -Sandra”.
“Hey, uh, Rita?” I clear my throat and put my arm around her, subtly passing the note over to her. “This place is getting really stuffy; I think we need to step out for a second. Whaddya think?”
Hope shrugs. “Oh, alright,” she says, covertly reading the note. “But we’re coming back; this place is just fabulous, don’t you think?”
“Definitely,” I say. We walk outside, brushing past Girder’s cold metal form as we do. Sandra’s waiting on the corner of the street, fully visible.
Sandra turns to us as we approach, and her voice turns to a whisper. “So,” she says, turning to Hope. “Before I bring this up, I figure it’s worth asking. How much do you know about what your brothers work on in the Force?”
Hope takes a deep breath. “Well, you know what’s going on with Mason, Clarence is in the same precinct as me, Barry just got a promotion to Major Crimes, and Matt works… well, I think he works around here, actually.” Her face turns bright red. “What’s going on?”
“I managed to get into one of the back rooms,” Sandra says. “And… well, Zayas is there, and he’s talking to a bunch of associates. One of them was Tell. And I think one of them may have been Matt.”
Hope nods. “Okay,” she finally says. “I… I guess I’m not surprised. He’s always been really secretive about what he’s doing, he’s denied promotions before… but I didn’t really think about it before.”
Sandra sighs. “I know this can be hard to hear, but I, unfortunately, have to ask you for one more favor. We’re here to watch Zayas over an extended period of time, figure out what he’s planning. For that reason, you can’t tell your brothers about our suspicions.”
Hope nods. “Got it,” she says hurriedly. “My… my lips are sealed.” As she speaks, I can tell she’s not fully convinced.
We walk back to the car. This was a short mission, but if this goes right, it will be one of many. And once we’re done, I’m almost certain, we’ll be able to take Maxie Zayas down.
-=-=-=-= 🌟 =-=-=-=-
Part 4: Rick Tyler
“Okay,” I snarl as I pass Luisa in the hallways of my school. She’s currently putting her bag into her locker. “I need to know what the fuck is going on, and I want you to tell me everything. What do you want from me?”
“Rick, calm down,” Luisa says. “Look, there are reasons why we had to do what we did, why we couldn’t just tell you everything as soon as we met you. We’ll explain everything soon enough.”
I shake my head. “Again with the secrets. Just fucking tell me what I need to know, alright? You guys pretend to be my friends, stage some sort of chance meeting with me--I got no idea how you did that. You pay some guys to shoot your heads off if I didn’t show up?”
“More or less,” she whispers. “Look, keep your voice down, okay? What we’re involved with isn’t something we can talk about in public.”
Oh, for Jesus fucking Christ’s sake.
Luisa bows her head. “Meet me out front of the Valor Building, this Saturday at 3 PM. All three of us will be there. Once you get there, there’ll be no more secrets. You’ll get to know everything. Promise.”
I sigh and throw my hands up. “Okay, fine,” I whisper. “I’ll be there.”
As I make my way to class, I shake my head. Fuck this. Clearly, they don’t trust me any more than anyone else seems to. But still, for some reason, I still want to meet with them. Just to figure out what’s going on. And then I’ll be done with them.
I nod my head. That seems fine. Find everything out, then leave. I can handle that.
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
The Valor Building is one of Opal City’s oldest brownstone skyscrapers; it’s not even close to the tallest anymore, but it’s right in the middle of the city center, and it’s one of the most iconic buildings here. To those who actually give a fuck about Opal City, I guess. I remember that when Dad and Mom were still together, we ended up going for a weekend trip to Opal City. Dee and I were taken aback by the Valor Building and all of the dazzling skyscrapers in the city center; it felt so much nicer than Baltimore did. Then I moved here and discovered that like every other city, it’s full of shit. Tourists just like to hide the shitty parts from view.
I walk up to the front steps of the building. John is leaning against one of the pillars near the entrance, and Luisa and Maya are waiting for me up front.
“Yo, glad you could make it,” John smiles. “We were placing bets as to whether you’d actually show up. Seems like Luisa here owes me ten dollars.”
“Trust me,” Luisa laughs. “If you’d have been there, you’d have agreed with me. He didn’t seem like he was in the mood to keep putting up with our bullshit.” She turns to me. “Regardless, glad you could come. Sorry to put you through all of this.”
“Sorry,” I say, shrugging. “I can let my nerves get the best of me at times. I’m feeling better now, don’t worry.”
“So,” Maya says. “Are we ready to go?”
Luisa nods. Maya turns to the keypad next to her and types in a code. 7, 8, 4, 4, pound sign. The door clicks open. Immediately, as I walk into the lobby, I feel like I’m in a place I’m not supposed to be. The floor is made up of elaborately-patterned stone tiles; large windows to the sides let in a lot of sunlight as I walk to the elevators.
“So, uh, what do you do here?” I ask. “This is just, like, an office building, right?”
“Just, like, 10 seconds left,” Luisa says. “Then you’ll get to know all our secrets.” She calls the elevator, and we walk in. I push my way to the back as John and Maya get on.
“Alright,” John says. “I think it goes without saying that what we show you here today, you can’t mention to another living soul that we don’t approve of. Not even your hero pals. Got it?”
“Yeah, of course,” I say nonchalantly.
“Okay.” John reaches up above the panel of buttons on the elevator and opens up a small compartment. Inside is a fingerprint scanner; John jams his thumb onto the pad and the elevator begins to go down. After a few more seconds, the doors open. We’re in a pristine grey room; computers line every wall, and dozens of people look up as we walk in. Immediately, it reminds me of Ted’s workshop, but on a much bigger scale.
A man is waiting for us in the middle of one of the hallways. He’s wearing a neatly-ironed grey-green suit, with combed-over white hair. He reaches out his hand for me to shake.
“Al Carlyle,” he says. “Director of the American Security Agency. Nice to meet you, Rick. I’ve heard so many great things about you.” I turn around. All three of my so-called “friends” have deserted me, leaving me with this weird dude.
“Uh, nice to meet you too,” I mutter, shaking his hand. “So what exactly is going on here?”
“Well,” Al smiles, “what isn’t going on here? I suppose you’re a bit confused, a bit overwhelmed, so I’ll try and give you the long and short of it. We’re like the CIA, sort of. But a bit more secret. We’re the CIA when the CIA can’t be involved. Take, for example, metahuman agents. Do you know much about the Freedom Fighters?”
I shrug. “Heard of them. The original Starman was working with one of them, I think.”
Al nods. “Come,” he says. “Walk with me.” I sigh and follow him through the convoluted halls and terminals of this absolutely massive underground base.
“Now,” he says, “the Freedom Fighters were a truly amazing group of people. They were a UN task force composed of one sergeant, a handful of regular soldiers, and three metahumans. Well, they fought long and hard for the values that we hold dear to us today, but in the end, the UN saw them as a threat. What’s to stop our enemies from conscripting metahumans too? It’d be another cold war, one that many countries were all-too-eager to stop. So, metahumans were banned from serving in combat.”
He clears his throat and lets out a hearty chuckle. “Well, you see, terrorists don’t tend to follow by our rules. I suppose that’s what makes them terrorists, don’t you think? So that’s where we come in. One of many examples, I suppose, of where we come in. We use many of the techniques superheroes use to fight against potential threats to the land of the free and the brave. And I’ve had my eye on you for a while. I think you’d make a great addition to our cause.”
I pause and look around me. This place is huge. It’s bound to take up more than a few city blocks. When I intercepted the battle Jack was having with Swift, this base was underneath it all, computers typing away. Our school is only a few blocks west of here; it’s very possible the base extends that far too. I haven’t even been in Opal City for a year yet, but I had felt like I knew everything about it. Clearly, I was wrong.
I’ve never been the type of person who hated the government and everything they did. I followed the news, though, and they’ve clearly done some questionable things in the past few years. With Cale as President, that’s just going to get worse and worse. Do I want to be a part of this? Clearly, I don’t think I do. I was just here to get answers, and I got mine. That’s as far as this goes.
‘Take your time,” Al laughs. “We’d love to have ya, but no pressure either way.”
Before I can tell him no, my vision flashes white. A man walking down a run-down section of Snejbjerg Street. Nearly bald buzz-cut, blue eyes, wearing a grey hoodie. A car pulls up to him, firing three rounds in his chest. The blood splatters over the sidewalk. I snap back to reality.
“I have to go,” I say, my voice strained. “How do I get out of--”
Al gives me a knowing smile. “What’s going to happen, and where will it be?”
I sigh. “Some dude in a grey hoodie is gonna get shot on Snejbjerg Street. Drive-by shooting. It was a black sedan, I think. Just let me go, okay?”
Al turns on a radio on his jacket. “I want a dozen soldiers placed across Snejbjerg Street within the hour. Look out for black sedans, check each one for weapons. And get Rick Tyler here a tall glass of water.”
Immediately, the people around me start getting up and gearing into action. A young woman who was manning a computer earlier walks up to me and offers me a glass of water. I drink from it.
“Thanks,” I finally say.
Al hands me a burner phone from his pocket. “If you ever get any visions at an inconvenient time, text me from this phone. We’ll have it handled, and you can focus on the things in life that matter.”
I smile. “Wow, thanks.”
Al nods. “Look, Rick, I know that everything must be really disorienting for you right now, but trust me when I say that we’re here for you. From what I’ve heard from my agents that have been interacting with you, that doesn’t seem to be the case with the other team you’re on right now. They see you as a loose cannon. Maybe they’re right, who knows. But here, we need loose cannons. You can beat up as many terrorists as you want here--or don’t, whatever floats your boat. But you’re welcome here as you are, no matter who that is.”
I pause, looking around for a second. He’s right; in the few seconds I’ve met him, Al has made me feel at home more than I’ve ever been with the All-Stars.
I reach out and shake Al’s hand. “I’m in.”
“Fantastic,” he smiles. “Well, let’s meet the team then.” He brings me to a room with a circular table. Around the table are John, Luisa, Maya, and another kid I don’t remember. White kid with neatly-trimmed brown hair.
“Well,” Al says, “this is one of our finest covert ops units. We’re calling them the ‘Force of July.’ Right now, they’re mostly doing international missions, but we’re planning on bringing them into the spotlight as superheroes to handle domestic matters in the near future.”
He gestures to John. “You’ve already met John Trujillo, Jr., alias: ‘The Black Condor.’ His dad was one of our finest officers before sadly meeting his fate protecting our country. He piloted a one-of-a-kind wingsuit that his son now uses.”
“Besides that,” Al continues, “the Campoverde sisters have been fantastic assets. Luisa first came to us because she needed help with her sister’s metahuman powers. That’s right: she found us. Always a good metric for future success. Turns out, her sister has a bit of a way with plants, and it was a bit out of her control. Now, the two of them serve us as Lady Liberty and Mayflower.”
The last kid, the one I haven’t met, reaches over to shake my hand. “William Vickers,” he says. “Also known as Major Victory. My teammates have been telling me a lot about you. It’s good to finally get to meet you in the flesh.”
“The feeling’s mutual,” I say. And somehow, surprisingly, I mean it.”
Al nods and smiles. “Now that we’ve gotten to know each other, Rick, I have a special mission briefing for you and only you. I can tell that this will be the beginning of a long and fruitful partnership.”

Super Bowl Game Breakdown

It’s the last game of the season and we’ll be doing it Breakdown style, even if we can’t call it Game by Game. We should actually get a pretty good matchup between the Chiefs and the Bucs, with the young GOAT taking on the old GOAT. This game is certainly more than Patrick Mahomes against Tom Brady, but we all know that’s the driving force. Let’s get into things and pick out some captain plays for the Super Bowl Game Breakdown to find the green screens!

Chiefs at Buccaneers, O/U of 56 (Chiefs -3)

Chiefs

QB – Provided his offensive line doesn’t fail him, Patrick Mahomes is in a total smash spot. The Buccaneers had their issues against the pass this season, finishing fifth in DVOA against the pass but that doesn’t tell the whole story. They finished 21st in passing yards allowed per game and Mahomes already totally shredded this defense for 462 yards. That was the high watermark on the season and the other aspect favoring Mahomes is the run defense for Tampa.
It is the best in football, and has been for some time. They allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league by almost 10 full yards. Andy Reid and company are going to run just enough to keep Tampa honest, but not much more. Mahomes is going to have ample opportunity to crush this defense yet again.
The question really boils down to if he’s worth a captain pick and I would lean no. If Mahomes is the optimal captain, it likely means one of two things. The first is for him to have multiple rushing scores. That seems unlikely but the other avenue would be spreading the ball around. That doesn’t seem likely either. With Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce accounting for roughly 60% of the air yards and 50% of the target share, the passing game is too concentrated normally for Mahomes to be optimal. Of course, play him at will but I will likely be underweight at the captain spot.
RB – This spot is fairly ugly in honesty. As of now, we don’t know if the backfield split between Darrell Williams and Clyde Edwards-Helaire continues. In the AFC total game, Williams totaled 14 touches to seven for CEH. That’s not something we’d want to get involved in against such a good run defense. The one reason I won’t totally cast them aside is the Bucs gave up the most receptions to backs in football. CEH had an 11.1% share of the targets and if he’s full go, he could be interesting in PPR formats. Still, this spot is mostly a fade for me. Nobody is really that cheap and I’ll have other priorities. If you’re in a 20 max, a couple shares make sense but that’s as far as I would go.
WR – Let’s hit the way back machine and take a look at part of what I wrote for Hill –
Here’s the really exciting part. Hill plays almost 40% of his routes from the slot. That gets him to Sean Murphy-Bunting in coverage and this man just got pantsed on Monday night. He’s allowing a 2.40 pPT, 137.1 passer rating and a 13.3 YPR. If you think Andy Reid doesn’t know that, think again.
That was before Reek went Godzilla on the Tampa secondary for a massive 60 DK points. Not much of my outlook has changed in the Super Bowl Game Breakdown, but this is interesting. Kelce is more expensive, so I wonder if Hill is the most popular captain since he’s the cheapest of the big three from the Chiefs and everyone saw what he’s capable of against this secondary. Hill is lethal from the slot, and even though Murphy-Bunting is playing better in the playoffs he’s going to struggle. He allowed a 122.7 passer rating and a 2.10 P/PT on the season over 115 targets. Tampa has to come with a different game plan than last time. Having said that, I still think Hill will be one of the most popular options up top and I’ll have shares myself.
📷
The secondary receiver is up in the air. Sammy Watkins is on track to be active for the first time in the postseason, and we shouldn’t ignore that. He had a 13.9% target share to go with a 14.2% share of the air yards, third-highest on the team. Even though he’s only played in 10 games, he has nine RZ targets which is third on the team as well. Watkins played the slot 34% of the time but would mostly see Jamel Dean who was fifth in YPR allowed at 9.6. The veteran could be a cheaper way to get exposure to the Chiefs passing game and would be my preferred target if he’s active. Watkins would make it tough for Mecole Hardman to get a ton of work, so we’ll update this if we need to.
TE – The elephant in the room is on DK, it’s likely not possible to play Mahomes/Hill/Kelce altogether. The cheapest stack of those three leaves $5,666 per slot after that. That’s if you don’t use any of them at captain. It’s potentially workable but I’m not sure if it’s the best path to take. If you’re making a lineup that has some of the high profile Bucs passing game players, you’re going to have to pick a path here. I ever-so-slightly lean Kelce, since there’s receivers to replace Hill. You can play Mike Evans or Chris Godwin for cheaper and hope that Kelce outscores Hill. Tampa gave up nine touchdowns on the year to tight ends and it’s possible that they get so focused on not letting Reek go nuts, Kelce has a slightly easier path. Even though he is more expensive, Kelce is the Chief I’m least likely to fade.
D/ST – These units should likely not be very popular, but I kind of dig the Chiefs. Tampa turned the ball over plenty last week and Kansas City sports a pressure rate of just about 25%. We all know that pressure is the one aspect that makes Brady a mere mortal. They’ve forced 25 turnovers and actually only allow about 22 points per game. In the first matchup, they forced two picks and had five DK points. That could be enough for the salary.

Buccaneers

QB – I still am not that interested in Tom Brady as captain because he’s honestly hasn’t been playing that well in the postseason. When’s the last time you’ve seen Brady go three straight games with a 55% completion rate and an 8/4 ratio of total touchdowns to turnovers? Maybe the rest week will help him and he certainly has the narrative behind him. You know, it’s not like Brady has lost Super Bowls before or anything. KC finished mid-pack in DVOA against the pass so the matchup isn’t anything crazy bad for Brady. I would tend to think he gets at least 35 attempts, but I honestly don’t totally love the price. I will say I like him better as a captain option than Mahomes. If Brady goes nuts, he’s got a better chance spreading the ball around to multiple touchdown receivers. There’s much more a path to Brady hitting optimal value at captain than Mahomes in my eyes. I’m not going to tell you to not play Brady, but fitting him and Mahomes in will require a punt somewhere along the line.
RB – Speaking of punts, Ronald Jones has entered the chat. All eyes are going to be on Playoff Lenny, a.k.a Leonard Fournette, and with good reason. However, RoJo offers double-digit touches at a rock-bottom price. Folks will be scared off by the 1.6 DK in the NFC title game but he did have 10 carries. That’s in line with the 13 he got in the previous week as well. Since the Chiefs struggled against the run with the 31st ranked DVOA, this is a very solid spot. I don’t love the fact that Jones is not involved in the passing game. Fournette has racked up 17 targets over the postseason run to just one for Jones. Still, the price difference is undeniable. In the first matchup, Jones took 10 touches and turned it into 17.3 DK with over 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Don’t expect that but RoJo stands to be the most attractive punt right now.
Fournette is the “better” choice in the Super Bowl Game Breakdown because if the Bucs have to abandon the run, he’s going to get the passing work. You could take the path of playing Chiefs pass game+Fournette and either Evans or Godwin without Brady. If you threw Jones and Fournette together, you lock up all the backfield touches for the Bucs at under $10,000 and have some wiggle room left to play with. Either way, Jones looks like a key way to mix in a punt with some serious upside in this game.
WR – Mike Evans has been super quiet the past two weeks, but consider who he’s faced. Marshon Lattimore always gives him fits and Jaire Alexander never really left him after a big touchdown grab early in the game. If folks want to overlook Evans, that’s fine by me. Bashaud Breeland has had a very solid season for the Chiefs, allowing just a 1.40 P/PT and a 50.8% completion rate (third-best). He’s also giving about six inches and 35 pounds to Evans, a major physical mismatch. Brady loves him in the RZ and EZ, where he racked up 18 and 14 targets respectively.
Corner L’Jarius Sneed really played well for the Chiefs when he was active since he played just nine games. He’s lined up in the slot and only allowed a 52.3% catch rate and a 1.30 P/PT on the season across 44 targets. They could elect to use Sneed on Chris Godwin or possibly Tyrann Mathieu, who played some slot as well. Either way, the road is a tough on for Godwin. It’s not like Antonio Brown has a cakewalk either. He gets Charvarius Ward for a good chunk of the game. Ward was targeted 67 times and allowed a 1.80 P/PT. While it’s the “easiest” matchup on the board, AB has only been targeted six times total in two playoff games. He’s not even all that cheap at $6,200. I’d rather play one of Evans or Godwin even at the salary.
📷
TE – If you’re playing a tight end, Cameron Brate looks like he’s going to be the safest bet and there is upside here too. Even Dawson Knox of the Bills posted 15+ DK points, and KC struggled against the tight ends all year. They allowed the seventh-most DK points, fifth-most yards, and nine touchdowns. Brate has been the pass catcher in the playoffs with 16 total targets and never scoring below nine DK points. Compare that to Rob Gronkowski who has been targeted seven times and has two games of just one target. If the game goes high-scoring as projected, Brate is a very solid way to get exposure to the Tampa pass game.
D/ST – I was prepared to be willing to play them, but they are more expensive than the Chiefs. Kansas City could have a major weakness with the loss of tackle Eric Fisher. It’s hard to really quantify that because it happened so late in the Buffalo game. One thing the Bucs do extremely well is get pressure at the third-highest rate in football, 27.9%. I have to believe that the Chiefs will have an answer for that and I’m not overly concerned with it. If playing a defense, I’d be much heavier on the Chiefs.
Captain Pool – Kelce, Hill, Fournette, Evans, Godwin, Brate
Thank you for reading Super Bowl Game Breakdown! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

The below is a weekly piece we put out for our members - Core Plays but we are offering most of our content free this weekend for anyone that is interested in our approach. Content will be made available to anyone who signs up for a free account at dailyboogie.com. However, please check out the preview below and let us know who you're targeting in your contests this week.

NFL Core Plays: Week 8

Fades will be listed as players in which we'll either be far lower than the field on or just completely off of in anything other than team stacks.
YPT = Yards Per Target
ROO = Range of Outcomes
YPRR = Yards Per Route Run
aDOT = Average Depth of Target
YAC = Yards After Catch
DVOA = Defense-Adjusted Value over Average
TT= Team Total
POWN= Projected Ownership
aFPA= Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed
EPA= Expected Points Added
RACR= Receiver Air Conversion Ratio
WOPR= Weighted Opportunity Rating
For those of you playing Single-Entry, 3 Max, 5 Max, or 20 Max: the players listed in the first two tiers are the ones to focus on the most. Ideally, you would sprinkle in some of the players listed in the 3rd Tie Dart Throw range to help diversify your player pool.
Please adjust accordingly depending on the type of contest you're entering. While we may advise you to stay clear of the obvious, more popular plays in large-field GPPs, feel free to mix and match those type of plays in smaller-field GPPs and Cash Games.

QB Core

Primary Tier

R.Wilson: I don't care if SF has a good defense. None. Especially if Carson and/or Hyde miss this game, SEA will be forced to be even more pass friendly. Also, I actually like SF's chances to score some points on this horrific SEA Pass D. To ease any concern, Russ is currently avg. 10 yards per attempt at a nearly 80% clip vs. Zone. Guess who runs Zone D at a Top 5 rate? The Niners.

Secondary Tier

R.Tannehill: With his price increasing every week (DK), we will likely see POWN held in check. This game will likely determine how my week goes as I plan to be all over it in the majority of my lineups. I've said this over and over again, but I'm just so impressed with TEN's willingness to push tempo. With a fast pace, and incredibly efficient performances every week, Tannehill will continue to be featured in Core Plays.
J.Burrow: His price oddly didn't really spike on any site, and that's fine by me. The #1 leader in drop backs in the NFL will be in a matchup where both sides like to push the pace. Mixon looks like he's going to miss another week, making the CIN Passing Game all the more obvious of a play. If we throw out the BAL game, Burrow has literally never scored less than 17 DK points, even in matchups that were a lot less favorable game environments.
P.Mahomes: Mahomes has provided enough data to see that he does put up top tier points in these surefire blowouts. KC will score 4 TDs before the end of the 3rd Quarter (if not sooner). We just need to hope we don't see those fluke Special Teams and Defensive TDs like last week which ended up being Mahomes worst fantasy output EVER. Not exaggerating, it was his lowest output in pass attempts, rushing yards, yards passing, with only 1 TD.

Third Tier

L.Jackson: I dont think Jackson is going to be viewed as anything more than a "ah maybe I'll throw him in a lineup at the end". Half a season removed from one of the greatest fantasy seasons we've ever seen, the regression bug has caught up to Jackson. Even then, the guy went from #1 Points per drop back to a mere 3rd best. People are acting as if he's fallen out of the top 10. Tough matchup? Sure. But go ahead and take a look at what games have led to Jackson's greatest outputs this year? CLE, WSH, and PHI. All have some of the better D-Line's in the league and they couldn't do anything to stop him. Another bonus here, the fact that this matchup should be competitive in the majority of ROOs. An elite talent being priced down to the 4th highest priced at the position, all while still leading a team that has a healthy 25+ implied point total.
J.Garoppolo: Any QB facing SEA has to be mentioned. Jimmy isn't your typical every week DFS plug and play but he does fit the mold of an ideal GPP play. He checks off all the boxes we want for DFS QBs in 2020: Cheap, BOOM matchup, prone to spike weeks that include ceiling games, and oh.. he might be low owned as well.
A.Rodgers: I usually don't like chasing ceiling performances but there's no way I'm going to avoid ARod here. Even so, there are some troubling angles this game could see. The good: GB ranks 2nd in the NFL when it comes to scoring per-snap. They also rank in the top half in neutral-situation passing rate. The bad: Both offenses are in the bottom when it comes to pace and plays run. GB averages just 63.8 plays per game (20th) and even worse, MIN averages 59.3 (30th). When games are within one score, both teams rank near the bottom in pace (GB 27th, MIN 28th).

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

J.Allen: I initially had Allen in our 2nd Tier, but decided to move him to this group on account of his low POWN%. While this game doesn't have a juicy total and the Pats D ranks near the top in several categories, this is still a QB that has shown tremendous upside in just about every type of matchup. If you've been with us since Week 1, you know where I stand on Allen. Go over the field.
Thursday Update: Similar to Cam below, I had higher hopes for this particular game before finding out the injuries and weather attached. Projections will be lowered on both offenses as well as OWN%.
C.Newton: One. More. Try. Cam was great to us when the season began, but has been a shell of himself since his return from COVID. Usually a game with a total of 45 implied points is a big red flag. There is plenty of downside going with Cam Stacks in NEP vs. BUF, but there's also about a 30% shot this play can be one of the better upside + leverage moves of the week. BUF D has been bad, no way around it. Bills rank towards the back of both phases of defense (DVOA), 28th vs. pass, 24th vs. rush, 29th Overall. When looking at their PFF grades, BUF ranks 28th vs. the Run and jump up to 11th in Pass-Coverage. Clearly, NEP will likely attempt to run it as much as possible. That is where I'm hoping we'll see Cam go back to his near 12 rushes per game average Pre-Covid as opposed to his 7.5 clip these last two weeks.
Thursday Update: I had written the above prior to knowing Edelman is out, and his WR group will be D.Byrd, J.Meyers, and Gunner O. Also that the game appears projected to be played during a monsoon. So I will go ahead and take the aqua color away, I will lower my OWN% to very low levels, but I will NOT be fading him! Yolo.
K.Cousins: While I don't usually look at past matchups data as a part of my weekly assessment of a player, Cousins has played fairly well vs. GB, like always. Just as his favorite weapon, Adam Thielen, has consistently found a way to get the better of GB's secondary. Still, as mentioned above, the game could have a concerning pace issue. The return of D.Cook will likely cause the Vikings to favor the run. Cousins will be a way to pivot in large-field GPPs.

In Between Tier (In play but I'm likely to be under / not excited about)

J.Herbert: His DK price is nearly unplayable since it's based on him reaching near his ceiling game, but it's much friendlier on FD.
Thursday Update: With all the possible weather issues, Herbert has become a very interesting, very low-owned (At least on DK) large field tournament / Q option.
D.Carr: Before seeing that he's likely going to be one of the more popular options, I had Carr near the top of my GPP tier. If he's anywhere 8%+ owned I will take my chances coming in lower. That being said, this is a really good spot.
B.Mayfield: Down his WR1, he was still able to have one of his better games last week. He's staying in my player pool as a way to pivot off the Hunt chalk.
B.Roethslisberger: I actually think I may be over the POWN here, but I'm not going crazy either. PIT will likely find out it's a lot easier to throw on BAL then just running it up the middle. His weapons are quite dope.

QB Fades

These are QBs we're looking to mostly avoid, especially as solo plays. (Either because of high ownership and/or a poor outlook.)
D.Brees: "If no M.Thomas, I will be suppressing my Brees ownership severely", is what I said last week. Now, same plan, going against a decent CHI D in what is likely to be a slow paced affair.
M.Stafford: We haven't seen a true week changing ceiling and the matchup could slow down their pace this week.
P.Rivers
D.Lock

Ideal Stack Pairings

There's a lot of leverage to gain when including a second pass-catcher with our QB choice AND bringing it back with a player from the opposing team. Unlike the majority of sites, we don't advise to strictly game stack 4+ players in matchups with high implied totals. Instead, we look to target offenses where the targets are heavily concentrated.
P.Mahomes-> T.Kelce and T.Hill / D.Robinson
R.Wilson-> T.Lockett and/or D.Metcalf
J.Burrow-> T.Boyd and T.Higgins / A.Green
R.Tannehill-> A.Brown and/or J.Smith / C.Davis
A.Rodgers-> D.Adams and/or R.Tonyan / A.Jones
J.Allen-> S.Diggs or C.Beasley
K.Cousins-> A.Thielen or J.Jefferson
J.Garoppolo-> G.Kittle and/or Aiyuk
J.Herbert-> K.Allen and/or M.Williams / H.Henry
B.Mayfield-> R.Higgins and/or K.Hunt
T.Bridgewater-> R.Anderson and/or D.Moore
C.Newton-> J.Edelman or N.Harry
B.Roethlisberger-> D.Johnson and/or C.Claypool / J.Smith-Schuster
T.Bridgewater-> D.Moore or R.Anderson / M.Davis
M.Stafford-> K.Golladay or T.Hockenson
Tua -> D.Parker or M.Gesicki

RB Core

Primary Tier

D.Cook: It's the return of the GAWD. Cook is slated to return this week after the world finally realized that Mattison is not his equal, nor in the same tier. He's been fed the ball often and MIN knows he needs to be a big part of their plan if they want to keep up with Rodgers and Co. As a bonus, he's cheaper and likely to be lesser owned than some of the other Top RBs.
K.Hunt: His advanced metrics are actually showing several areas of decline but my god the current situation couldn't have even been dreamed of when the season began. Chubb and ODB are now gone, he's in position to see an endless amount of touches and is in a GREAT matchup. Oh, he's game-script proof regardless.
A.Kamara: He's likely the most talented player on every field he steps on and if the Saints ever decide to give him those 25+ touches, they may like what they see. I don't understand why they aren't giving him 30 touches let alone 25. This game also leaves Kamara's ceiling somewhat suppressed. While I won't be "Fading" Kamara, it's looking like a rare week I'll be coming in under / matching the field. (Scroll below to Updates to read NOS vs. CHI Game Environment Issues).
Update: I went through the numbers, he's currently averages about 20 opportunities per game (even without M.Thomas). Come on Saints, the hell. Unleash him.

Secondary Tier

D.Henry: The BIG DAWG is fun to own on those slates where he steps on all the defensive backs heads on his way to a 95 Yard TD score. How does somebody that big run that fast? He pulls away from CBs and Safeties that are attempting to chase him down. Anyways, we're looking at what will likely be my favorite game stack of the week. TEN vs. CIN is just so perfect for GPPs. I've said it over and over again, Pace and Volume are vital categories that I will always try to be overexposed to on a weekly basis. TEN and CIN feature the only game that BOTH teams are in the top 8 in Pace. Faster Tempo = More Plays. More Plays = More Volume. More Volume = Fantasy Gold. While this was supposed to be a D.Henry breakdown, I turned it into why I'm going to be all over this game. The CIN and TEN Pace is no fluke either. Henry has the most touches in the league while Burrow has the most drop backs in the entire NFL. Man, I'm excited.
A.Jones: His talent and projected workload belongs in the top tier, especially given its a plus matchup and he's pretty much game script proof. However, this is one of the more key areas I'm waiting to get a definitive feel for how the field will be playing it. If we see D.Adams chalk I'll go heavier on the RB side. If we see people flood to the GB Run side, I'll go even heavier on the passing attack. Regardless, I want all the GB vs. MIN I can get and will be making sure any popular combination will be attached to a contrarian piece I find elsewhere.
G.Bernard/J.Williams: Both will quickly make their way up the tiers if they get the lead role again. Both are in plus matchups, but I would like to see where POWN would be coming in at. Most likely, they will be decent pivots off their team's more popular options. Since they both have pass game roles, they can be stacked nicely with their QB as well.

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

J.Jacobs: He's been quiet as of late, but he's still one of the best volume situated backs in the league. One odd category that most people wouldn't even suspect is his solid number (24% heading into Week 7) of RBs who are targeted at the highest per-route rate. Believe it or not, theres only a handful of players with a higher number. On top of that, he's rushed 20+ times in half his games, caught multiple passes in EVERY game, and has seen no less than 3 targets in ANY game. I'm really intrigued to see where POWN is going to come in at. Regardless, I'm aiming to be a decent amount higher.
J.Taylor: I know, I know. Grandpa Taylor and his 15 carries for 78 yards with hopefully a fall into the end zone. It's been rather brutal ever since his coming out party Week 2. Still, I have to mention the enticing matchup vs. DET's 28th ranked DVOA vs. RBs, the relatively high game total of 50+, and the large O-Line advantage he will have vs. DET's D-Line. So there you go, I have said what I have to say, now you know it. And now, we try to talk ourselves into one way or the other.
M.Gordon: So far this has been an odd tempting spot for me to go way over the field on. Besides the "revenge game" narrative, Lindsay is likely to miss this week, giving Gordon all the run he can handle. Because he's capable of catching the ball and running between the tackles, his reasonable price and the likelihood of being 5% or less owned makes him quite the bring back piece to any K.Allen lineup. While DEN vs. LAC isn't likely to go nuclear, it can very easily feature two players who can tilt some contests. Perfect case of POWN vs. What his upside/outlook suggests he should be owned.
CEH: Honestly would be straight up fading him if you told me he was going to be 18%+ POWN. I'm assuming he won't so therefore, he falls in a weird space this week. There's no reason why he cant see 21 touches and find the end zone multiple times here, and yet, he seems to find a way to disappoint. I also will be projecting him lower than what you may be accustomed to. That is because I'm 100% sure that they will be giving 1 TD to L.Bell.
M.Gaskin: In general, this MIA vs. LAR game finds itself in no man's land this week. Simply because of the lack of attention this game will be getting, leaves my contrarian obsessed mind to try to find the hidden treasures. LAR are weaker vs. the run than the pass, and with a rookie QB, I would have to assume MIA might try to keep the ball on the ground more. It's also nice to have a few bring back options in any game stack such as C.Kupp or R.Woods. Hell, even G.Everett and J.Reynolds can be other next to no ownership pieces.

Lower-Ceiling / Volume and/or TD Plays

I wanted to separate the RB group a bit more this week. While these players can be played on all sites, they are likely better suited to TD oriented scoring formats (FanDuel).
J.Conner: My ownership levels are low enough where he can be considered a "Fade" but he also makes enough sense as a contrarian TD dependent play.
J.McKinnon/J.Hasty: I would favor McKinnon because of his pass game usage in a game where they'll likely be trying to keep up vs. a defense that's a lot better vs. the run than the pass.
Starting SEA RB: While facing an elite Run D will usually be something I fade, whoever SEA plays this Sunday presents us a way to pivot in large fields or Qs with the off chance SEA decides to revert back to their 2013-2019 ways. A weak hedge on my part that will be a very small part of my FD plan.
D.Henderson / M.Brown: Annoying committee but the matchup is near as ideal as it can get.
J.Jackson/J.Kelley: Ideally LAC would like to pass it on DEN but sure, there could also be chances for red zone carries here.
D.Harris: Since there's a 50% chance NE just runs it 40 times here.
L.Murray: I wouldn't be opposed to going heavier on Kamara on DK while bumping up Murray's ownership on FD. A great hedge against the Saints burning us with random TD variance. Again.
L.Bell: Likely will be gift wrapped a TD against his former team.

RB Fades

D.Montgomery: Workload and backfield is all his and it doesn't seem to matter. His inefficient ways are no longer a habit, but a way of life.
BAL RBs: You don't find success by running vs. PIT.
J.White/R.Burkhead
D.Singletary
Any DET RB not named Swift

Standout RB Notes

Unlike the more volatile positions, it's generally fine to play the chalkier options at the Running Back position. Their guaranteed workload & touches are extremely difficult to replicate otherwise. That being said, remember to adjust based on the type of contest and field size.
Talking shop with Nick today, he brought up the "Don't play 2 RBs from the same game" rule. While that might be so for the majority of games, it's not a rule that applies for every single matchup. For example, this week I see two particular games that I wouldn't mind having both RBs in the same lineup.
J.Jacobs and K.Hunt
D.Cook and A.Jones/J.Williams
If a game includes at least 1 RB who has a decent role in the team's passing game, it opens up the possibility of 2 RBs going off no matter the game-script.
The Cook and GB RB pairing might be the more obvious but you still be surprised how rarely people play two backs in the same game. The one that I think will be very rare is Jacobs and Hunt. Mind you, before I even checked the horrific passing weather that will plague this matchup, I was all about going in on both backs, even in the same lineup. For the most part, just about every type of DFS player knows K.Hunt is well known for his pass catching abilities, but I think 95% of players would be shocked to see Jacobs' low-key pass role. Mentioned up top, but it's worth saying again: he's rushed 20+ times in half his games, caught multiple passes in EVERY game, and has seen no less than 3 targets in ANY game.

WR Core

Primary Tier

D.Metcalf/T.Lockett: If I'm playing Wilson then obviously these two have to be included. Not the "best" matchup but on the chance this game ends up shooting out more than what people are expecting, the ceiling is as high as ANY.
K.Allen: Just a BEAST. Week in and week out, volume of the gods. I actually just became friends with the LAC WRs/Offensive Coordinator Coach so I got some insight into how they prepare for their weekly matchups. Regardless of opponent, Allen is producing at his all time best levels right now. Price doesn't seem to go up which is annoying and will make his POWN higher than it would otherwise. Lock of a Cash Play, and I will be looking to find some unique ways to feature him in my higher-dollar lineups.
D.Adams: Usually when you already own a ridiculous portion of your team's opportunity share it's hard to find another level, but that's what Adams just did when the Packers lost A.Jones. Even though Tonyan and MVS can have a few spike weeks here and there, there is no greater target density that has this kind of ceiling. Price is as high as its been all year leaving a lot of room for "disappointments". By disappointment I mean even a 8-85-0 (16.5 PPR Points) is going to be considered an off week. So while there is a decent possibility Adams "only" gets us a 16-18 point output, you better believe there is plenty of ceiling potential that we see him go nuclear yet again.

Secondary Tier

A.Brown: The combo of The greatest receiving talent in the week's best game environment has me all over Brown here. I'll have my hedge lineups that feature an unexpected C.Davis and/or Humphries spike week but no where near the amount of Brown exposure I'm planning.
J.Jefferson / A.Thielen: Yup, Jefferson has now reached Thielen Status and will be side by side. This game is my favorite one to build stacks from because of the numerous ways we can go about it. We can include GB Running with MIN Passing, we can go MIN Running with GB Passing, or we can simply bet on an all-out arial attack from both sides and have an onslaught type of lineup. (5 Players from the same game). I plan to feature an even amount of these two in all MIN vs. GB Game Stacks but I'll also be featuring them as secondary stacks and 1-off pieces without issue or hesitation.

Tier 3

T.Hill: Leading off the tier of "Really Great Talent" but questionable game environments goes Ty Freak. There's no reason why Mahomes wouldn't target the one of the most dynamic players in the game at least 7+ times. There's nobody in the Jets secondary who even remotely matches up well here. Yet, my fear of KC running away with it and their propensity to share the ball all around have me scared enough where I won't ever go all in on a certain KC pass catcher.
S.Diggs: If I am betting that NEP get their act together vs. this overrated Bills D, that likely means S.Diggs should be in position to see a lot of volume and opportunities. I wish he wasn't going to be covered by last year's best CB in Gillmore, but I'm still going to bet on Diggs Talent and workload. The good news is that S.Gilmore has "fallen off" from the #1 CB to merely just a top #10 ish CB this season. Side note: If NEP are somehow successful at slowing Diggs down, that just means that Beasley and J.Brown (G.Davis if Brown is out again) are likely in position to have a BOOM week.
K.Golladay: Last week was the highest I've ever been on Golladay believe it or not. He did his thing too, so all is well. Still, I dont understand what is keeping the Lions from feeding him true #1 Alpha targets? He's been playing in only about 75% of snaps all season which whatever I can get over if that means he's being peppered whenever he's on the field, but that's not totally the case. He hasn't seen anymore than 8 targets in a single game. That 8 target game was also his only 8 target game, meaning the others have been even less. So, this is a long-winded way of saying I want to see DET commit to their stud in the making before I go all in, especially on weeks where the matchup isn't as juicy.

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

Players in this grouping aren't necessarily "worse" plays than Tier 3. The majority of the time you'll see players in this tier that I have projected to outscore some of the names above them. This tier should be viewed more as the "Leverage Group" because of their ownership being lower than it should.
NOTE: I almost didn't have to touch this section. Take a look back at last week's GPP Dart Group for WRs, an absurd % surpassed their projections. Just a reminder of how this tier tends to be the GPP tilting plays, one way or another.
T.Boyd: Pretty easily the best game stack piece to bring back in any TEN lineup. Oh, and the best WR to pair with Burrow on the CIN side. The only downside is his price increase, especially on DK. His teammates Higgins and Green offer better savings but it comes with a lower floor as well.
C.Kupp/R.Woods/J.Reynolds: I know, what the hell? All 3 are going to be severely low-owned compared to what they should. I mentioned above how LAR vs. MIA will be all but forgotten this slate, so here's me reminding you about their upside pieces. I wanted to mention Reynolds alongside these two studs because he's been putting up rather impressive numbers for week now at near min price and 0% ownership. All 3 of these can make awesome 1-off pieces as well, as there are plenty of outcomes where MIA lays an egg but LAR can still provide at least a couple of high scoring players.
B.Aiyuk: By default, the #1 WR in a game vs. SEA secondary. Kittle will still be the #1 Pass option, but Aiyuk is in a clear BOOM spot.
R.Higgins/J.Landry: While Landry will be the favorite to become CLE's go to WR post-Odell injury, it's Baker to R.Higgins who's put up some of the most unexpected QB-WR efficient numbers I've ever come across. Evan Silva mentioned the insane 74% completion rate on 65 targets for 705 yards and 7 TDs Higgins has put up when targeted by Mayfield. That's a 10.8 Yards per Target clip. Jesus.
M.Brown: BAL has paths to make this game a shootout rather than a slug fest. While the Eagles aren't exactly in either of the Ravens or Steelers Tier, they managed to turn both of their contests into high scoring, slate shifting explosions. While the Philly offense is in pieces, their D is actually somewhat comparable to these two teams. Now, again, overall they are probably two tiers below at their best, but the scheme and game flow is a great comp. Even if we have only a 33% shot to see a shootout here, I know who the likely suspects will be. With PIT having a lot better middle and inside coverage, their vulnerable on the outside. Enter, Mr. Brown.
T.Higgins: The 2nd most talented CIN WR. His upside remains that of GPP worthy and now we're even starting to see a stable floor that comes along with it. Great matchup that will likely see at least 2 CIN WRs perform well.. I like his chances.
D.Johnson: This has been one of the most annoying players to get right ever since he blessed us with a fantastic first week. Since then, we've been trying to ride him and his newly found rock solid floor to cash glory only to somehow lose him in 3 straight weeks to injury. His price last week was another key oversight that I dropped the ball on. I fell victim to having been burned too many times in a row to make him a major target last week.
C.Davis: Quietly, this former 1st Rd. Pick is becoming a decent player. Coming off of a 6 Receptions for 35 Yards and a TD on a team-high 10 targets, Tannehill seems to clearly trust him. Avg. 7.3 Targets through his 4 games.
C.Claypool: You just won't see me ever be lower on him than the field. Sadly, the days of near no ownership are likely past us.
D.Robinson (KC): Last week I wrote "My week might hinge a bit too much on whether or not Robinson continues seeing a 95% snap share. Oh well. Bombs away" Sigh. Of course, it took the most random variance of defensive TDs and Punt Return TDs to make Mahomes have his worst fantasy production of the year. Robinson is still in position to see a whole lot of snaps as the team's starting WR. At his price, it doesn't take much. Honestly, one Mahomes throw of 20 yards will get us there.
H.Ruggs: We saw his upside already. The talent is tremendous. And now so to is the matchup. (Wind might affect this call. His thrives on down field splash plays)

The In-Betweeners

Pieces that won't be priorities but offer plenty of upside in any Team / Game Stacks they're a part of.
A.Green: While I wouldn't like to rely on AJ reverting back to his prime week in and week out, we'll likely see at least a couple of spike weeks for the former stud.
J.Smith-Schuster: This guy man. I touted him all Week 6 and he burns me. I mention him in passing Week 7 and he reverts back to the old Juju.
T.Patrick: WR1 in an underrated game stack.
P.Williams: With Parker Out or even playing gimpy covered by J.Ramsey, P.Williams makes for an ideal 1% owned YOLO play in MIA/LAR Stacks.
MVS: Hasn't shown up lately but his price is really low for the WR2 in a Rodgers led offense.
N.Agohlor: Being an Eagles fan I just can't trust it, but he can be a stacking option if you like.
M.Jones: While his snap count and target share is in a sort of free fall, he's still capable of providing GPP Winning weeks in the right spots and outlier games.
D.Byrd: Keeps being priced down as if he's not seeing 90+% of snaps and 5+ targets on the regular. Might be only WR left standing.
A.Humphries: Not exciting, but exceeds value more than you would think.
K.Bourne: Floor is probably 0 but again, SEA secondary and he will be in position to see the 2nd most snaps of SF's WRs.

Standout WR Notes

Nothing much left to be said other than yet another reminder to CORRELATE your lineups. Try getting exposures to some Game Stacks that have paths to featuring several upside winning players.

TE Core

Primary Tier

D.Waller: He can lead the position this week without much of an issue. His ROO includes that of making someone a Millionaire. Great piece of a great game stack. Hell, even as a 1-Off he's nice.
G.Kittle: Faded him last week, but that stops here. Not only was he already the focal point of an offense, not only is he a 100% snap player, but now he gets to face the worst graded secondary in the NFL in a matchup that includes a ROO anywhere from a disappointing meh performance to Game of the Year. I'm betting it goes closer to the BOOM side. (The offense lost a lot of their target share due to injury, so his ridiculous usage is even safer now).
T.Kelce: Literally rinse and repeat from last week. I expect him to be decently owned and that's ok. He's popular for a reason. Presents the safest floor + ceiling combo of the position every week.

Secondary Tier

J.Smith: Here we go again, going back to the players who sucked the previous week. Smith seems to be practicing in full so we can drop all this Firkster crap.
M.Gesicki: What better way to protect the rookie QB than to pepper your talented TE who happens to be in a plus matchup vs. LAR. They are a good defense overall, but TE's are their Achilles.
M.Andrews: Might need to revisit this once the weekend arrives and POWN has changed, but the popular thinking would be that Andrews gets single digit OWN% after a dud game AND a tough matchup that will have the majority of our opponents skipping him over. This may be the rare chance to get a Top 3 QB + a Top 3 TE at bottom-level OWN%. Their ceiling easily makes it worth it.

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

CLE TEs: Both Bryant and NJoku still offer decent value and are part of an offense that just lost it's number 1 target share holder. OBJ's injury has now opened up almost 40% of End Zone targets for CLE.
H.Henry: Chalky bust of last week means you know what... Play him more than the field. Don't get crazy either. If POWN is 4%, lets leverage the overreaction to a 8% clip.
T.Burton: I'm not going to deceive you guys, I have a bit of a crush on Burton ever since he was an Eagle. Love his game and all the ways he can produce. We don't know what the TE snap share will settle between Burton, Doyle, and even MAC. That being said, I'm willing to bet that Indy saw what they have in Burton and with his still really cheap price, I'm going to be plugging in Burton more than the normal DFSer.
R.Tonyan: Likely a better play on FD for his TD role, but the price has dropped enough on DK where he makes for a nice low-owned pivot in any GB Stacks.
I.Smith Jr.: Role has been growing. Likely no high ceiling in his ROO but plenty of results that see him eclipse his projected total.
E.Ebron: Including him even though the majority of his ROO includes outputs of a 4th option (as he is now) but he's also got outcomes that see him get a 2 TD game at any given week. FD preferred.
D.Sample: Only in CIN Stacks as a pivot off their WRs.

TE Fades

T.Hockenson: He's been fine. I'm still waiting for more ceiling games to come before I ever insert him into any high dollar lineups. His game total is pushing 50+ at least, but my interest is "meh".
N.Fant: I was initially excited to playing Fant this week until I ran into some troubling data. Not only have the LAC D strangled TE production as a whole, they've done so while facing some of the teams who target their TEs at the highest levels. He can always get lucky and come away with a TD, but math tells me to take some shots elsewhere when it comes to DEN offense.
J.Graham: TD or bust every week and somehow the price has risen.
G.Olsen: Honestly it's ok as part of SEA Stacks to differentiate and save money but SF vs. TE is rather tough.

TE Standout Notes

TE is a unique situation to approach depending on the site you're playing on. On FanDuel, TEs are usually priced closer together, leaving it unnecessary to play a lesser talent compared to a similarly priced stud. Touchdowns are a lot more important on FD as well. While on DK (Full PPR), we can pay down to a value TE who can get us there on volume alone.

DST Core

Highest Raw Rating: KCC, BUF, NOS, LAR
Other Pivot Options: CHI, LAC, NEP, IND, TEN, BAL

Additional Notes

We'll also make sure to explain all the benefits our Boogie Factor brings to the table and how to use it to your advantage.

The Boogie Factor combines numerous sets of data that we prioritize for player's outlooks. We're confident with our projections heading into Week 1, but our edge is really going to start showing come a month into the season. Reason being, we're waiting to collect a month's sample size from the 2020 season to better reflect certain jumps / declines players have taken.
An example of all that goes into the Boogie Factor besides the obvious categories such as projected pass attempts, yards, and touchdowns (just for QBs) is the following:
- Expected Hurries
- Projected Blitzes
- Projected Pressure
- Moneyline Spread
- Moneyline Movement
- Expected Passing Air Conversion Ratio
Recent data is even more important for skill positions such as WR and RB. A position as volatile as WR, being able to collect Air Yards Data helps nail down other advanced metrics that better predict WR efficiency and outputs.
- Receiver Air Conversion Ratio (RACR )
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
If all that is a bit overwhelming to you, not to worry. That's why we're here and that's what the BF will help sort out.

Added Notes: Potential Game-Stacks to Target / Fade

Coming off my worst week of my DFS career, I'm going all in as far as studying every possible angle of every game. While some will be popular and for good reason, I'll be focusing more on the "secondary" options that will be more likely to be looked over.
An example, Bills vs. Pats. The low total and the recent skids of both offenses are going to cause some of the lowest ownership of the entire slate. While it's concerning that our boy J.Allen and his Bills have gone from averaging 30+ points the first month of the season to just 17 points per game since, we know the upside remains in tact. More troubling is Cam and the Pats. With literally 0 Top 24 WR & TE Week Performances since their matchup with Seattle (Week 2), we obviously shouldn't be going all in here. That being said, there is reason for hope that the Bills Top 10 Pace in 1-Score situations can force the Pats to wake up and push their tempo. As mentioned with Cam, I'm hoping we see an increase in his rushing attempts as oppose to NE simply handing it off to their rotation of backs.
Update: Sigh. Weather concerns..
Then we have those "Could Be Shootouts but Can Also Disappoint) matchups of SEA vs. SF, CLE vs. LVR, and even LAC vs. DEN.
I'm actually pretty high on SEA vs. SF generating a lot of fantasy scoring. Lets take a look at the ridiculous fantasy friendly events that are SEA games. First of all, they have produced the 2nd most plays per game (140.5). They also have the PERFECT ingredients we look for when it comes to predicting shootouts with their pass first, fast pace offense and their horrendous pass funnel defense. The cherry on top is their Run D being a Top 10 unit which all but guarantees that opponents will be looking to find ways through the air. While SF may not rank among the top in pace, or average anywhere near the amount of plays per game (124), they tend to speed things up when facing a capable opponent. SEA definitely falls under that category.
CLE vs. LVR falls closer to a 60-40% chance of surpassing expectations. My main concern is that these offenses both fall in the bottom half of the league in pace. They both are also run-first offenses. That being said, regardless of these facts, LVR games and CLE games have both managed to combine an average of 60+ points through 7 weeks. That isn't exactly a small sample. Still, there is a possibility their slower paces cause their efficient scoring to drop more than we've seen so far. At the very least, we know K.Hunt and J.Jacobs are in prime spots to succeed being in teams that handoff at Top 5 rates in 1-Score Situations.
LAC vs. DEN is actually more of a "You wouldn't think so but you be surprised". At first glance, I figured DEN offense to rank among the bottom 5 in all things scoring and pace. Surprisingly, DEN games actually rank among the top half and LAC games have seen a Top 5 rank in total plays ran. I'm assuming this matchup won't be too popular as far as game stacking is concerned, leaving us some room to gain leverage with the hidden upside we can see.
To recap: I love TEN vs. CIN, they will be my #1 targeted game in all type of contests.
Other games like DET vs. IND and NO vs. CHI offer us very little hope as far as ceiling and pace are concerned. DET's bottom 5 grade vs. the run will likely have IND committing to their usual run first ways. DET began the year with some decent pace (Top 10 throughout the first month) but have plummeted to the 20s since. As far as NO goes, they are literally dead LAST when it comes to pace whenever the game is within a score. On top of CHI's horrific 4.8 yards per play (30th), both team's defenses have been far more successful than the offenses they will be facing. CHI D ranks top 5 in Pass Rush and Pass Coverage while NO D allows the 3rd fewest "Splash Plays"(20+ yard plays). The CHI offense as it is, ranks Bottom 6 in Splash Plays themselves.
If you like this content, visit us at dailyboogie.com for additional pieces free of charge all weekend and let us know what you think!

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Let's Talk: 2021 Rankings [#1]

2020 Season Recap

Draft Expectations

Positional Rankings

Top 12 Rankings (Superflex)

Ten Reasons the Browns will Defeat the Kansas City Chiefs

Heaven Hill: Because You Suck and We Hate You (Updated for 2020)

Scouting List 2020

Quick Notes on Historical Draft Selectees

JoJo's Bizarre OC Tournament #5: Round 3 Match 7 - Bang "Boogie" Bronson vs Espiritu (Glitchless) (Any%) (WR)

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Starman #8 - Storm Force

STARMAN

Issue #8: Storm Force

Arc II: Fire Opal

Super Bowl Game Breakdown-Win Daily Sports

Super Bowl Game Breakdown

Chiefs at Buccaneers, O/U of 56 (Chiefs -3)

Chiefs

Buccaneers

Core Plays - Week 8

NFL Core Plays: Week 8

Table of Contents

QB Core

Primary Tier

Secondary Tier

Third Tier

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

In Between Tier (In play but I'm likely to be under / not excited about)

QB Fades

Ideal Stack Pairings

RB Core

Primary Tier

Secondary Tier

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

Lower-Ceiling / Volume and/or TD Plays

RB Fades

Standout RB Notes

WR Core

Primary Tier

Secondary Tier

Tier 3

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

The In-Betweeners

Standout WR Notes

TE Core

Primary Tier

Secondary Tier

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

TE Fades

TE Standout Notes

DST Core

Additional Notes

We'll also make sure to explain all the benefits our Boogie Factor brings to the table and how to use it to your advantage.

Added Notes: Potential Game-Stacks to Target / Fade

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