Preface: Please believe me when I say I really wanted to take this month off and enjoy the snow in Tahoe. But as I was driving, something caught my eye... Make no mistake. This stock is not going to be nearly as volatile or profitable as GME. In fact, this might be so boring that most of you will ignore me yet again. And that’s exactly why I like it. I’ll do my best to make this engaging, but the fact is, this is going to be a slow grind. Both this DD and the stock. Also, as a bonus, Reddit is currently public enemy #1 in the eyes of the media. Why don’t we do a quick heel-turn and join their side? Are they gonna hate us for buying boring value stocks? They won’t know what hit them. That will be a fun show to watch. Anyway… let’s take a look under the hood. As always, not financial advice. Just education. NOTHING IS A RECOMMENDATION. We are just sharing knowledge here. Ok SEC? Intro: Ford (NYSE: $F -- NOT NASDAQ:$FORD), is another depressed deep value multiple expansion arbitrage play. No short squeeze this time. The GME asymmetry may not be seen again for 10 years. It might seem boring and unsexy on the surface, but Ford is a fantastic company in the midst of one of the best turnarounds in American history. And with a little help from our friend Mr. Options (or as Buffett called, Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction) we can turn a boring old Ford into a lightning fast Ferrari using the quadruple income option wheel strategy. Don’t try this at home. If you don’t know what CSPs, CCs, or vega are, stick to shares. Those should work just fine. Let’s break this down into 5 parts: electrification story and leadership, multiples expansion, technical analysis, options, and the trade. By the way, in 2019, the Ford F-Series was second only to the Apple iPhone, which raked in $55 billion, in terms of total revenue generated. The F-Series generated more revenue than the NFL, MLB, NBA, and the NHL combined, which added up to $40 billion. Just something to think about.
The wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round...
Electrification story and leadership: Let’s jump into history for a second. Ford had a meteoric rise from 1997 - 1999 from $15 to around $32 at the peak. This was due to $F reporting massive earnings increases each quarter:
They were just feasting and feasting. Jim Farley looks like the best person alive to revitalize Ford, capable of tripling the stock in 2-3 years. Look at the last two quarters:
Q3-2020 - Adjusted EPS: 65 cents vs 19 cents expected, Automotive revenue: $34.71 billion vs $33.51 billion expected (due to pent up demand)
Q2-2020 - Adjusted EPS: A loss of 35 cents per share versus a loss of $1.17 per share expected, Automotive revenue: $16.6 billion versus $15.95 billion expected.
Here are excerpts from the Q3 earnings and some other notable highlights:
Farley: Now that plan, which was introduced to the Ford team and many stakeholders on October 1, is very straightforward. Among other things, No. 1, we will compete like a challenger, earning each customer with great products but as well services with rewarding ownership experiences. Number two, we're moving with urgency to turn around our automotive operations, improve our quality, reduce our cost and accelerate the restructuring of underperforming businesses. And third, we're going to grow again but in the right areas, allocating more capital, more resources, more talent to our very strongest businesses and vehicle franchises; incubating, scaling and integrating new businesses, some of them enabled by new technology like Argo's world-class self-driving system; and expanding our leading commercial vehicle business with great margins but now with the suite of software services that drive loyalty and generate reoccurring annuity-like revenue streams; and being a leader in electric vehicle revolution around the world where we have strength and scale. So now speaking about EVs. To start with, we're developing all-new electric versions of the F-150 and the Transit, the two most important, highest-volume commercial vehicles in our industry. These leading vehicles really drive the commercial vehicle business at Ford, and we're electrifying them.
Quick sidebar here from my buddy M: "Whereas traditional manufact / consumer / industrials are valued on an EBITDA multiple, SAAS has historically been valued on a revenue multiple, which translates to flat out higher valuations. EVs themselves are not necessarily a higher margin product that justifies a higher multiple (at least not that I've seen), but tech services / subscriptions are the real money makers in this game. Hint Hint companies like Apple throwing everything they have at trying to integrate services and subscriptions over the last 5 years" This further justifies the expansion multiples we expect will catch up to leading EV automakers (see below).
We own work at Ford. And these electric vehicles will be true work vehicles, extremely capable and with unique digital services and over-the-air capabilities to improve the productivity and uptime of our important commercial customers. The electric Transit, by the way, will be revealed next month, and you heard about it here first, for all of our global markets. We believe the addressable market for a fully electric commercial van and pickup, the two largest addressable profit pools in commercial, are going to be massive. Now you're going to see our strategy of electrifying our leading commercial vehicles and our iconic high-volume products expand very quickly at Ford. When you look at our results, they reflect the benefit of our decision two years ago to allocate capital to our strongest franchise, namely: pickups, a whole range of utilities across the world, commercial vehicles and iconic passenger vehicles. Additionally, we saw higher-than-expected demand for our new vehicles in the quarter. Together, these factors, plus the strongest performance from Ford Credit in 15 years, led to a total company adjusted EBIT margin of 9.7%. That's 490 basis points higher than last year. As an outcome of all this, we generated $6.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow. The strong cash flow in the quarter gave us the confidence and the ability to make a second payment on our corporate revolver, which we did on September 24. So now we have fully repaid the entire $15 billion facility, and we ended the third quarter with a strong balance sheet, including nearly $30 billion in cash and more than $45 billion of liquidity, which provides us with the vital financial flexibility we need.
Check out this credit downgrade weeks before Ford paid off their revolving credit facility. Smells like GME? Alright. What about Q4-2020 and beyond? Ford is expected to post a loss. TA is signaling a beat (see the TA section). Ford is spending this money in order further restructure and deliver on the following items in their pipeline: Bronco:
Within the first month of open reservations, the Bronco had received an estimated 230,000 reservations. 230,000 reservations is an incredibly impressive figure, especially when put into the context of Ford’s total vehicle sales. 230,000 sales would represent 4% of Ford’s total sales.
Some other nice features: Fold down the shifter, lay seats down completely flat, speakers in headrest, tailgate worksurface (pen/pencil holders, rulers) C clamp, 120V outlet, bottle opener, light), sensing running board, tailgate step and railing, and more. Watch the video.
Ford Raptor launch (just happened today, customers are excited. Look at the comments on YouTube and IG) Further potential tailwinds:
The Postal Service told Trucks.com that it expects to reach a contract with one or more of the teams bidding for the business in the federal government’s second fiscal quarter of 2021. That works out to the first quarter of next year.
There is a historical inverse relationship between gas prices and car sizing. Tell me if I'm reaching here. But as America continues to head towards electrification and energy independence under Biden, larger gas cars will be more in demand. Furthermore, the aftershock of COVID will continue to propagate the dedensification of cities. Less commuter vehicles, and more travel vehicles. And look who is conveniently positioned to take advantage of all of this?
Dr. Anning Chen is also a killer CEO of Ford China. This is largely intangibles (which Wall Street cannot model), but watch his interviews here and here.
Dr. Chen used the COVID shutdown to improve the operational efficiency of the company. It has not shown on the bottom line thus far, but it will later.
Regarding the above leadership and BOD members, experienced executives are a better fit for running the day-to-day than any other. Add a sprinkle of savvy techfin folk and you have a recipe for a elite transition.
English please? Ford is a strong company. Farley is delivering on his promises and can lead the company towards an operationally efficient turnaround towards electrification. Combine this with a loyal customer base rivaled only by AAPL, and you get another special opportunity. This is the turning point. Multiples Expansion: Now here lies the crux of the thesis. Amidst all the EV hype, Ford is being unfairly ignored at an extremely depressed multiple compared to the other companies in the EV space. Here are some comparisons (numbers may be slightly outdated, pulled earlier this week, more relative comparison than absolute): $Ticker - Market Cap - TTM Revenue MM - TTM EBITDA MM - Revenue Multiple - Ebitda Multiple TSLA - $810B - $28B - $4B - 29X - 202X NIO - $92B - $12B - ($7B) - 7.6X - (NaN) GM - $78B - $116B - $18B - 0.7X - 4.3X F - $44B - $131B - $10B - 0.3X - 4.4X That’s an eyesore. Let’s focus on just TSLA and Ford, because why not. Assuming Ford can quickly turn towards electrification (from the evidence above), these two companies are fair comparisons. No Tesla is not a software/energy company, look at their automotive % of revenue. Stop it. It has only recently dropped to 80% due to the expansion of their leasing division. Energy is still a tiny part of TSLA. Revenue Multiple: TSLA = 29X F = 0.3X EBITDA Multiple: TSLA = 202X F = 4.4X Yes those numbers are correct. Look at them for 60 seconds and tell me what you see. Quick quote from my buddy M:
Just zoom out and think. TSLA is for sure ahead of the rest on their tech and charging infra right now. But in terms of just overall bottom line infrastructure and manufacturing capability; once the GMs, Fs, and VWs of the world can get the ball rolling, they are way ahead in that aspect. Much more experience in production and retail / distribution channels, as well as logistics sourcing. Plenty of battery makers, and self driving tech makers out there too right now. Small to mid scale M&A will probably be the name of the game if I had to guess.
This is why Burry is short $TSLA, but two scenarios can unfold: either the high-flying stocks drop, or Ford rises. I believe we will land somewhere in the middle, with Ford rising as we begin to enter the optimism phase in the final third of our bull market. Shorting is a dangerous game anyway... So I’ve been hearing on the news... TA, Options: Exhibit A from our resident chart whisperer J (who will remain unnamed because you monkeys keep bothering him). Larger view. As you can see, the trendline has broken out. Exhibit B from our resident quant T (also to rename unnamed):
Starting on 1/4 you'll find right tail distributions into any liquidation which represent large buying. Which has led up to a recent run-up and eventually left tail distributions which represent short coverings which lead into the gaps and thinner distributions where there aren't any major bids. Even with the pullback on 1/22 we see more right tail distribution after the profit taking from the recent run-up, which means someone is buying up the inventory. This is unusual for F, where F trades within tight ranges. On 2/1 you can see a bimodal distribution which means a new player has stepped in, which we assume has additional knowledge apart from the larger players that were already in the market. The recent range between 10.70 and 11.20 indicates that the market has accepted this price range as fair value. Without additional research at first glance we can see that a large player (or players) is buying up a significant amount of inventory. On 1/4 we find that the volume increased to 77,559,128 from the previous trading of 34,462,454 (125% increase) and 33,127,776 the day before that. Volume has been higher since. On our first major left tail distribution (which represents short covering) since the buying on 1/4 the volume was at 113,707,973.
Exhibit C 250k shares of F 10.92; 100k F 11.04; 3.53m F 9.78; 708k F 9.78; 500k F 9.64; 377k F 9.50; 338k F 9.50; 201k F 9.75; 192k F 9.80; 150k F 9.77 These are blocks of shares bought in the past 7 days Top OI changes: +19610 F 02/05/21 11 C 43821 38% 13% 48% +12904 F 02/05/21 12 C 31929 38% 11% 52% Top OI positions: 170902 F 02/19/21 10 C +807 26% 49% 25% 112480 F 02/19/21 12 C +3207 29% 29% 41% The percentages are bid mid ask. Someone is bullish on Ford. For an earnings play, daily RSI is oversold looking towards an uptick. Options gamma is interesting to note as well. Open interest on 2/5 $13 and $15Cs are also notable. Could be covered calls? Could be someone knows something? Could be Jeff reading too much into the tea leaves. Not financial advice. Just showing you what I see. The Trade: The simplest way is just to purchase shares and collect dividends as Ford may reinstate them sometime in 2021. Possibly leaps if you feel adventurous. For the option junkies like myself, and as a tribute to the greatest company in American history, I will use the wheel(s). The GME trade was a very special and momentous occasion. Now that we have a bankroll, we’ll just quietly play theta gang as we enjoy our lives and spend time with our families and loved ones. Here’s a good summary. This is not for amateurs. I mean, none of this is financial advice anyway, just educational. But in a nutshell, I will: 1) Buy shares, 2) Sell CSPs 30-45 days out with 0.3 delta, 3) sell CCs with 0.3 delta (will reconsider this if Ford goes vertical) 4) Collect dividends. The Wheel doesn’t work on everything. Here are the qualifications from the above post, let me know if this sounds familiar:
Profitable company that has solid cash flow
Bullish, or Very Bullish, analyst ratings
Priced around $10 to $50 so that I can afford to take the assignment if needed and I stay away from sub-$10 stocks as a rule
A stable chart without wild gyrations (especially those caused by CEO tweets!)
A nice dividend is always a good thing, both that you may collect it if assigned the stock but also that dividend stocks tend to more stable and predictable.
Hmm... Conclusion: Ford is a massive, complex, multinational corporation so I’ve likely missed very many things, but I wanted to get this out before ER so I can flex again. (No market manipulation here lol. My buddy's multi-million dollar block buys didn't move the needle one iota.) There are many things I haven’t covered, and simply don’t know yet. As more facts begin to unfold, and as I spend more time with the stock, I’ll share the information here. Also, every time I post about an equity, it seems to go down. Lol... (GME). With all this in mind, this is still a very risky bet. Nevertheless, I like what I’ve seen thus far. Ford looks like a fantastically healthy company in the midst of a turnaround towards electrification with a phenomenally depressed multiple according to the market’s appetite. It deserves a multiple trending towards TSLA’s, not a dying auto manufacturer. Jim Farley has shown early to be a great CEO and I think he can continue the transformation. We’ve begun to enter a phase of exuberance, so I’ll choose to long Ford instead of short TSLA. As a bonus, we have the opportunity to join forces with the boomers and talking heads and bet on one of their favorite companies. Time for America to be on the same side again. We’ve been divided for too long. I know my GME posts were lucky. I’ll stake my reputation on another bet. One call sure is lucky. What about two? In any case, investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Glad to be a part of this journey with you all. Note: I will not discuss GME in the comments, which all depends on Ryan Cohen. There is nothing further to add until Q4 earnings. And finally, we’ve officially entered the last phase of our very long bull market. This is not necessarily a sell signal yet, as some of the greatest returns can come in this period and can last for a long time. I will do my best to look for the signal and sound the alarm. The world will be celebrating, and I will be bearish. Burry’s passive indexing bubble call in combination with Thiel’s government debt bubble call will lead us into a dark time of unprecedented proportions. Tail risk hedging won’t work as the declines will be slow at first, and then fast and violent and unrecoverable. Be careful. Listen to Ken Fisher. Thank you very much for your time. Positions: Bullish shares, LEAPS, on-going quadruple income wheel strategy as Ford reinstates the dividend. Timeframe 12-18 months. Watch out VIGILANTLY for macro risks. Bear market is on the horizon. Drop some Fs in the chat to pay respects. PT: $32 with a chance of $98 if we start to see exuberance in the broader market. -JA
Foreword I read your feedback and tend to agree. The intro was long and unnecessary. I expected much worse than what I got and am thankful for that. So I'll just say this. I know this is nothing more than a long rant. I wrote it because I felt like writing it.
Failing From The Start
(A player's perspective on the design and development philosophy of Digital Extremes as it pertains to Warframe)
Premise What is the premise of Glassmaker? The gameplay premise I mean, the idea that "investigating" is fun. Ok, I'll bite, sounds interesting. Where do you start on the path to incorporating the feel of player discovery and investigation into Warframe? Well, according to DE it starts with abolishing the very notion of the kind of game Warframe is.
Gameplay The Glassmaker is built with a set of gameplay mechanics that fail to make even the smallest bit of sense in the world of Warframe. Movement is restricted to a crawl, you can not jump, you can not slide, you can not dash, you can not crouch, you can not use your operator, and you have no access to your Warframe abilities. This is Warframe right? Someone, probably many people, at Digital Extremes sat down, talked about this, thought about it, tossed it around and some how landed on the premise that the most engaging way for players to interact with their new investigative content would be to strip them of everything that makes Warframe what it is, lock them into a borderline on rails experience and slow gameplay down to a literal crawl.
This is ironically intrinsic to Warframe gameplay though isn't it? Almost every piece of new content we get absolutely defecates on the core of the Warframe gameplay experience and it seems to be a lesson DE refuses to learn. Archwing, Lunaro, PvP, Operators, Railjack, "Heavy Weapons", K-Drives, Liches, Deimos... one sin after another continuously compounded by the weight of DE's inability to understand that its players want to play Warframe. Not Tony Hawk, Not Call of Duty, not World of Warships, not NBA 2K11, and not Monster Hunter World. We want to play Warframe and despite continuously releasing systems that see high traffic day 1 that quickly plummets to barely being what you could consider "participation" they just keep coming up with new ways to make gameplay experiences that are everything but Warframe. I'm all for changing it up every once in a while but DE you gotta learn the lesson here... We love Warframe.
Design Philosophy, or Lack There Of The choices that were made after the core gameplay was established are more confusing and offensive to me than the gameplay it self. It is as if someone brought in Delores Umbridge and told her to make this as unfun as is possible.
How appropriate I guess. Every single new experience that has come to Warframe since I began playing 7 years ago has been plagued with "This would be great if they didn't ruin it by doing this-itis" Archwing would've been great if the controls weren't terrible. PvP would've been great if it was even remotely possible to balance. Heavy Guns would've been great if they came anywhere near approaching the power levels of Melee weapons. Operators would have been great if their movement and health made it nearly impossible to survive for more than a split second. I could go on for days about everything that has just been completely in opposition to it self as it launched cough Scarlet Spear cough but I won't. Suffice it to say that DE proves time and time again that it can't release a piece of content without crippling it to the core first and sapping all the potential fun out of it first. DE is too afraid of the players breaking content that they won't even risk letting their players have any fun any more.
Hide and Seek The player must search for objects, objects that are small, hidden, difficult to see, carry no indicator of where they might be until you're already staring at them, have color schemes and patterns that blend them into the muddle color pallet of the game spaces they are placed in, and who's placement follows no kind of logic or design pattern.
This is heavily indicative of DE's tendency to design things that work but just don't make a lot of sense. If I had a dime for everytime I've run up against a problem in Warframe and went "Why isn't this just built like this instead" I'd be retired and not ranting about Warframe
RNG, the only thing players hate more than Knock Back To make matters even worse, what the object is AND where it is located are essentially random or at best, not predictable. So these incredibly difficult to locate objects are hidden in such a way that you can't even Youtube or wiki a guide to finding them if you're struggling. What purpose did this serve other than to frustrate the player?
I can't count the number of times the Warframe devs have had to get on Dev Stream and apologize for implementing unnecessarily punishing RNG into the game. You think they'd learn... RNG is a necessary evil it is not a good gameplay mechanic. It is designed to punish players who do not sink time into the game to encourage players to sink time into the game. It should not be relied upon to tell stories, encourage player engagement or gate content progression.
The Radar Is Jammed As if to add insult to injury the player is given what by all rights should have been an indicator to the location of these objects, a pulse of light that emanates from the player every few moments as if to emulate sonar or radar of some sort however the joke is on the player as this emanation serves absolutely no functional purpose (or if it does, it was broken for me on every single Glassmaker story step because it did nothing).
I don't actually have a way to tie this to a pattern in bad gameplay decisions DE is making except to say it is in and of it self an example of confusing, contrarian, expectation subversion for the sake of subversion that I just can not wrap my head around.
Proper Investigation Is checks notes Uneducated Guessing? Given that there is no predictability to which object you will be searching for, where it might be located, that there is no indicator to help find them, and that there is no design logic in their placement the player is left to literally wander aimlessly around the room feeling lost and hopeless with no way to reason out where to go but simply hoping to stumble upon these objects.
This is a good example of DE going "We wanted to give players the feeling of being an investigator and uncovering a story" and then doing the exact opposite of that. You can see this constantly in Warframe designs... Volt the Warframe meant to be all about electricity was primarily just a speed Warframe and the god damn speed Warframe they released is predominantly a stationary crowd control frame. I could just go down the list of every Warframe that was sold on a premise they don't and can't fulfil but we all play the game. We all know. We just stopped talking about it because DE has proven over and over again that they just don't care.
This Will Be On The Test Not only must the player find these randomly placed, difficult to locate objects but the player must also commit to memory features of these objects that becoming increasingly vague and difficult to discern as the story progresses. In the most recent Glassmaker part 5 for example several of the objects have absolutely no indication as to what about them you are meant to remember. The Legem comes to mind. It has a symbol but unless you already know that symbol is not unique then you are looking at an item with no highlights, no indications, no evidence what so ever that would point to the feature about the item you are meant to remember, which would be fine had Digital Extremes not spent the previous 4 story missions highlighting in bright colors the things you were meant to remember about the objects. DE was responsible for setting the expectation that the player would have some kind of indication and then strands the player without them.
Many of you will not remember a time when Warframe did not have even 10% of the in game info that it has now but Warframe was born into the gaming universe as a game that made it's fan maintained "wiki" a necessity for gameplay. You simply could not play early Warframe without the Wiki because most of the information you relied upon to make good decisions or any decisions simply wasn't available in game or was so incredibly inconvenient to find that the Wiki was the better choice 100% of the time. Worse than that, the Wiki is often actually more accurate than the in game info represented inside Warframe (I'm looking at you Shotgun status calculation). DE's reliance on the Wiki to serve players information that should be in the game has gone from being a quirk of having a complex game to a simple sin of laziness. I pray for any new player who tries to play this game without the Wiki up on a second screen 100% of the time.
No Time To Explain At no point, during any of this, even the very first part does the game actually explain any of this. All the way up to passing the investigation, navigating the platforms, and killing the boss. Not a single thing is explained by any source in the game. This would be perfectly fine if this gameplay followed in logic, pattern, or style anything that had ever been put into Warframe in the past but obviously it does not so fumbling your way through this and failing repeatedly until you give up and google it is basically the expectation here.
I could just refer you back to my previous statement about how Digital Extremes relies on the Wiki to delivery nearly 100% of all necessary gameplay information to it's players but I'll go a step further and say often when information is included in game it's either accidentally or intentionally incredibly vague. I'm betting on the latter.
We Don't Play Our Own Game I am convinced, 100% convinced that DE does not consistently play their own game, or if they do, they do it completely differently to how their players do. The "boss" fight for Nihil is a perfect example of this. You enter this fight (with no explanation, no indication that it's even a boss, and no obvious mechanics of course, and you are presented with an enemy shooting at you and FINALLY you have your movement back at least. Now, this is DE so obviously you can't Warframe the dude to death because screw you this is our game and you'll play it how we want you to, but you quickly pick up on the idea that you have to dodge these relatively difficult to see projectiles that will slow you into oblivion. Sure. No Problem. I'm a Warframe with slide and bullet jump and aim glide and dodge and ooooooooooooh whoah slow down there buddy. Getting a bit ahead of our selves aren't we? See these projectiles (that you have to dodge while not looking at them because it's impossible to aim glide backwards, dodge forwards, watch this projectile, and land on the platform) they can actually hit you while bullet jumping/dodging at full speed. In fact they will hit you 50% of the time. I tested this. The first shot misses, the second hits. Every time. In actuality what you are supposed to do is stand still. Yeah... stand still.. because get this, despite the fact that the projectile can hit you moving in air at full speed you can actually side step them incredibly easily and it dawned on me... this is how they intended you to play and I realized this because he will destroy the platform you're standing on so you're meant to stand still, wait, dodge, wait, dodge, wait, dodge to another platform and rinse and repeat this incredibly boring slow paced infantile excuse for a boss battle.
I've seen this time and time again on stream.. DE Megan rolling around like a pill bug with A.D.D. or Reb slowly aim gliding her way through the air like nothing is actually dangerous (it isn't, she plays with god mode on). The problem is well this is the worst, least efficient, least effective, least fun way to play this game. No.. if you watch a real player play (and by real player I mean literally anyone else. Just pick a rando on Twitch or Youtube, doesn't matter, they all play the same) then you'll quickly see Warframe is a game about extreme speed movement, dodging, clever repositioning, winging backwards shots at enemies as you fly by them, racing to objectives, and completing missions as fast as humanly possible. I know DE wanted to create a space "ninja" fantasy stealth game with cover and slow paced thoughtful combat and all that shit but face it DE, that's not what you made. That's not what Warframe is.
Final Thoughts
I love Warframe. I hate pieces of it with every fiber of my being, but Warframe.. what Warframe is supposed to be at it's core is amazing and that's what keeps me coming back despite my developing distaste for it's development team, messy releases, community patronization, and low effort unimaginative "innovations". (Except you DE Steve, keep that shit up, Warframe is beautiful and I still get excited hearing you talk about graphics improvements just for christ's sake stop making jokes we make about you like they aren't about you. When you look at the screen and go "Soon, right hahaha like DE soon or real soon" it makes me want to stop playing for weeks at a time. You don't get to be a part of the joke when you are the joke. Fix things and then you can get in on laugh but it just feels bad to hear you laughing at our expense and make no mistake it is at our expense)
Digital Extremes... please stop trying to turn Warframe into everything but what it is and get back to making Warframe better, more stable, and more fun or admit to the community that you don't want to make Warframe anymore. That's all I'm asking for. Give me a reason to hope for the future of the game or disappoint me now so I can leave Warframe behind me.
P.S. Keep in mind that after the Tencent announcement you are on thin ice for a lot of players. Many of us are waiting for anything that even smells like the intrusion of Tencent's toxic presence into Warframe and we are ready to jump ship to stop our selves from supporting directly or indirectly the single largest cancer the video game industry has. Now is not the time to make mistakes you plan on apologizing for later because I imagine there won't be a lot of forgiveness to be had if you start becoming the evil that players are afraid Tencent will make you.
[OC] a look back on the history of “Most Improved Player” award winners, and what it may tell us about most likely winners this year
After going back through the list of "Most Improved Player" award winners from the 2000s, there's no clear and consensus template to victory. Certainly, the easiest path to win the award would be to blow up your scoring overnight. Some examples of that would include Zach Randolph who won in 2004 after going from 8.4 PPG to 20.1 (+11.7). Monta Ellis won a few years later by ballooning from 6.8 to 16.5 (+9.7). More recently, C.J. McCollum won in his breakout year after going from 6.8 PPG all the way up to 20.8 (+14.0). In all three cases, the improvement also came from a huge swell in "minutes played." Randolph and McCollum both doubled their minutes, for example. However, that's not always the case. In certain instances, the trophy goes to improvement in scoring and efficiency more than playing time. This past year, winner Brandon Ingram's playing time only jumped from 33.8 to 33.9. In 2015, Jimmy Butler won with the exact same minutes played (38.7 to 38.7). However, both Ingram and Butler did improve their scoring that season (+5.5 and +6.9, respectively.) Ingram's jump in efficiency was notable, as his true shooting jumped from 55.5% to 58.7%. Looking back at that history may inform our predictions for this current year. Last year, I did the research among all the winners of the 2000s that you can read here. Based on that data, we came up with the "average" numbers for each winner. If we include Ingram, these would be the new averages: Mr. Most Improved (average from 2000-2020) age at the time of award: 23.6 years old, season 4.0 in NBA stats the season before: 27.4 minutes, 12.0 PPG stats in the Most Improved Season: 35.9 minutes, 19.8 PPG Clearly, a big number in "minutes" and "points" is the typical calling card. And since we're looking for players who can jump about +7 or +8 points, the idea of eyeing current players in the 11-12 range last season makes sense. If we also look for players in the typical age range (23-24, season 4), that could narrow our search. Last year, we used this template to flag some potential contenders like Jaylen Brown and Fred VanVleet. Neither won the award, but they were in the running. In the comment section, u/Chad12341296 was even more accurate, flagging Brandon Ingram as his pick. So if we look for someone who fits this profile again this year, which players come to mind?
potential Most Improved Player candidates for 2020-21
SF O.G. Anunoby, Toronto Toronto forward O.G. Anunoby may fit the most neatly into our template. He'll be in his Age-23 season, his 4th in the NBA. His stats from last year (10.6 points, 5.3 rebounds per game) should also be easy to surpass if he's given more of a greenlight offensively. Nick Nurse and the Toronto Raptors also have a good history with this award, winning with Pascal Siakam back in 2018-19. The team may have forcefed Siakam a little this past season, but if they spread the ball around, it's easy to see Anunoby averaging 15 PPG and getting a lot of media buzz for his two-way play. PF Michael Porter Jr., Denver This one's a little trickier to quantify. If you're judging based on the end of last year in the bubble and playoffs, you may say that Michael Porter Jr. already broke out. But if you're judging based on his actual raw stats from last season (16.4 minutes, 9.3 points per game), he's a great bet for a huge jump up. With 30+ minutes, he could threaten 18-20 PPG. He's also not far off from our age range, as he'll be 22 and (technically) entering his 3rd season in the NBA. PG Markelle Fultz, Orlando We mentioned Markelle Fultz as a potential candidate in last year's preview, but that may have been premature. Now entering his Age-22, 4th season in the league, he's primed for his best season to date. With the ball in his hands often, he'll have every chance to beat his stats from last year (12.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 5.1 assists.) 20-6-6 isn't an unrealistic goal for him. That said, it could be a "make or break" year for Fultz (the polite way of saying "shit or get off the pot.") The Magic drafted another flashy PG in Cole Anthony, and will have to determine sooner or later if Fultz is going to be worth his $15M qualifying offer for next year. PG Ben Simmons, Philadelphia It's hard to envision a player who's already a two-time All-Star winning this award, but it's not impossible. Last season, Luka Doncic got some votes for going from All-Star to MVP candidate. I could see a similar path here for Ben Simmons, who will be 24 and entering season 5. Now that the team has surrounded him with better shooting and given him more space to work inside, he may vault his averages up from 16-8-8 to more like 23-8-8. If that happens, you'll be sure that Doc Rivers and Daryl Morey will use their media connections to give the kid some love. That is, presuming they keep him around and don't trade for a bearded dude instead. other potential candidates SG Tyler Herro (MIA), SG Kevin Porter Jr. (CLE), SF Kyle Kuzma (LAL), SF Cam Reddish (ATL), SF Mikal Bridges (PHX), SF Andrew Wiggins (GS), SF Kelly Oubre (GS), SF/PF Grant Williams (BOS), PF Lauri Markkanen (CHI), PF Doug McDermott (IND), PF Brandon Clarke (MEM), PF Marvin Bagley (SAC), PF Zion Williamson (NO), C Christian Wood (HOU)
G-League Draft Primer: Who could be joining Jeremy Lin in Santa Cruz?
The Santa Cruz Warriors officially announced today that they have added Jeremy Lin through the NBA Vet Selection designation, so I thought it would be a good time to look ahead to the upcoming draft to see what sort of team could be around Lin this season. The G-League Draft will be held this Monday at 10am PST. Notes:
3 Rounds
Teams will not be required to make any selections
Once a team declines on selecting, they may not make another pick for the remainder of the draft.
At the conclusion of the draft, teams may have no more than 10 players on their roster.
Santa Cruz holds two picks in the draft:
2nd Rd | 9th
2nd Rd | 16th*
In the full draft order the Warriors' second pick in the second round is asterisked with "cannot make pick". I've reached out to some G-League expert colleagues for clarification, but my assumption would be that this means the Warriors already have 9/10 roster spots called for and can only make one selection. With Lin taking up a spot and our four Exhibit 10s (Kaleb Wesson, Axel Toupane, Dwayne Sutton, and Elijah Pemberton) mostly likely also taking up spots as affiliates, it's probably a good bet that the other four spots are going to returning players. I did a write-up a few days ago looking at which returning players might be rejoining SCW this season. A couple of notes on that now:
Four players I mentioned in that list (Roger Moute a Bidias, Torren Jones, DJ Johnson, Kiwi Gardner) have entered the G-League draft pool. After consulting with Adam Johnson (former-SCW sideline reporter), he informed me that this would only be possible if the Warriors rescinded their returning rights when they signed their G-League contracts so that they can be draft eligible. Which means the Warriors no longer hold the rights to them. Moute is the only one who's a bit surprising. He played fairly well last season and was a Dubble participant, so I thought there was a good chance they'd bring him back.
I'm also fairly certain now that we do not have Ky Bowman's returning rights and I had just misunderstood the way returning rights work with two-way players, so disregard him from that post. I'd expect Ky to be apart of the Clippers G-League team as an affiliate player.
Assuming my deduction is correct and the Warriors have one open roster spot, although they do not necessarily have to select anyone, there's a good chance they might. The draft pool is fairly large (194 players) and there only seems to 25-26 picks that can be made in the draft. Some of the more recognizable names:
Lance Stephenson, Michael Beasley, Quincy Pondexter, Mario Chalmers, Allonzo Trier, Shabazz Muhammed, Dzanan Musa, Admiral Schofield, Antonio Blakeney, Jacob Evans, Shamorie Ponds, Terrence Jones, Diamond Stone, Emeka Okafor, Isaiah Briscoe, Vincent Edwards, Justin Patton, Hollis Thompson, Jemerrio Jones, LiAngelo Ball, Oshea Brissett, Deonte Burton, Gary Payton II, Marquis Teague, Phil Booth, Terry Armstrong, Festus Ezeli, Vander Blue, Kevin Young, Trayvon Palmer
You can see the full list of the draft-eligible players here. Now I'll be honest I don't really want to sift through the full list (a lot of the players I've never heard of), but I thought I'd try to highlight a couple of players I could see the Warriors potentially having an interest in.
Festus Ezeli - I know fans know Ezeli well and some probably don't want anything to do with him at this point, I'm dubious myself given injury/fit concerns (Warriors should already have two centers on the roster in Davis/Wesson), but I think there are some reasons a reunion could make sense. For one, Ezeli seems to be very committed to an NBA return (similarly to Lin) and was spotted last season at one of our games chatting with Lacob, so I could see them bringing him in as a favor to a former player. It's also important to note that Festus is Nigerian and Mike Brown is the head coach of their NT and some of his staff are SCW coaches. The same things I said about Gbinije in the other post would apply here. I'm sure Mike wouldn't mind having two players eligible for his team close-by playing and practicing. The GS Warriors are also just super thin at the 5, so having a big who is familiar with their system available in case of an injury crisis is another benefit.
Terry Armstrong - Terry is the youngest player (20) in the draft pool who just went undrafted in the 2020 NBA draft. A four-star recruit out of HS, he signed in the NBL last season as a next star and didn't see a lot of game time. Don't know a lot about his game but draft profiles describe him as an athletic 6'6 wing who can score at three levels and projects well as a defender. Off age alone, could be worth taking a flyer on him and getting him in our system to see if he has any potential.
Jemerrio Jones - Jones is a G-League veteran and a super versatile and durable rebounding-machine. His game reminds me a bit of JTA and with him up in the NBA and the Sea Dubs seemingly lacking a good 4, he could be someone who slots in pretty well into the team.
Vincent Edwards, Admiral Schofield, Hollis Thompson - A couple of big wings who shoot the 3-Ball decently well. Schofield I remember was actually in for a pre-draft workout in 2019.
Justin Patton, Diamond Stone - A pair of young bigs who could offer something and worth a look.
Jaren Jackson Jr.'s Potential: Future Bust or MVP?
Recently there was a post in the Grizzlies subreddit asking if anyone was concerned with Jaren Jackson Jr. As a Jare Bear (yeah, I'm sticking with it) stan, I vented my rage and ample quarantine time into researching and writing this manifesto. Enjoy my ramblings. Jaren Jackson Jr. A young, ‘unicorn’ big man who’s floor stretching ability and defensive potential combine to make him one of the more tantalizing prospects in the NBA. Though a bit overshadowed by his electric teammate, Ja Morant, and his draft class contemporaries Luka Doncic, and Trae Young, I personally find him to be one of the most, if not THE most intriguing young player in the league. Having just turned 21, Jaren only has the briefest of exposures to the NBA. His unique skill set flashes the potential of a long, great career, a path that he was set on from an early age. Pre NBA Life Son of a former NBA Champion shooting guard, a young Jaren spent his early basketball life learning how to play like a guard; shooting from the perimeter and handling the ball, things that Sr had experience leveraging into a successful NBA career. This skill set combined with a late growth spurt in high school from 6’5 to 6’10 quickly turned Jaren into a top 10 national prospect. Leading his team to 2 Indiana state tournament wins led him to continuing his career as a 17 year old freshman at Michigan State. Playing with an upperclassmen laden front court meant Jaren didn’t get starter level minutes in college, but he made the most of his 22 minutes per game putting up an impressively efficient 11 points on 65% True Shooting, making a little over 1 three a game at nearly 40% from 3, and adding 6 rebounds and an absurd 3 blocks on top of that. It wasn’t all perfect though, as another factor of his limited minutes was his issues with fouling, something that has followed him into his current NBA career. Coming to the Grizzlies After a depressing season lost to injury in 2017-18, the Grizzlies silver lining was the opportunity to draft in the top 5 of a draft class that might go down as one of the greatest in NBA history when all is said and done. Looking to reload for one last run, the Grizzlies took a bit of a bet on Jaren’s defensive upside and potential floor stretching ability, something they felt would pair nicely alongside Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. There was some grumbling among Grizz fans at going with what appeared to be a higher risk player that had rumors of not wanting to work out with Memphis. Jaren debuted in a Grizzlies jersey against the Hawks in a Summer League game where in just 23 minutes he put up 29 points. He made more 3’s in a single game than any player in a Grizzly uniform since Mike Miller in the 2007/08 season. As a fanbase desperate for a shooting, Jackson became an overnight sensation. The optimism was a bit premature, and things would again not go the Grizzlies way in the regular season. After a less than promising start to the season, ownership felt it was finally time to move on from the last traces of the ‘Grit and Grind’ Grizzlies that had dominated Memphis sports culture for nearly a decade. Jaren made the most of his time under Mike and Marc until around the all star break, when Gasol left for the Raptors and Jaren went down with an injury that held him out for the remainder of the season. Prior to his injury, Jaren had established himself as a promising young talent that blended a good sense on defense, with an offense that did indeed include 3 point shooting potential. Due to youth, inexperience, and continued foul trouble woes from his college days, Jaren averaged just 26.1 minutes per game despite starting in 56 of the 58 games played that year. Similar to his freshman college experience, Jaren made good use of his rather limited play time to contribute efficiently on both ends of the floor, posting nearly 14 points on 59.1% TS, while adding around 5 rebounds, an assist, a steal, and a block and half per game. He flashed pretty much everything that was hoped at the time of the draft; a solid, mobile front court defender, with the ability to chip in a made 3 a game. He was a member of the rookie first team, the rising stars challenge, and outside of a disappointing final team record, had a rather successful rookie season. Grizz Next Gen Everything changed when the 2019 offseason attacked. One draft lottery miracle, one 30 year old first time GM, one trade of a decade long franchise cornerstone, and one 36 year old first time head coach later, though Jaren would still be the youngest player on his team coming into the 2019-20 season, quite literally everything else about his situation had changed. At just 20 years old Jaren was the second longest tenured member of the Grizzlies roster, behind Grizzlies 2018 2nd round draft pick Dillon Brooks who missed the majority of Jaren’s rookie season with an early season ending injury. In a flurry of free agency moves and draft signings, the Grizzlies entered the 2019-20 season with 3rd youngest roster in the league, and optimistically curious fans that were interested to see whether or not their new star point guard was the real deal, and if Ja and Jaren together could be the next great chapter in Memphis basketball. It took just 3 games for Ja Morant to make his mark on the league, Putting up 30 points and 9 assists with the buzzer beating block on Kyrie and the overtime buzzer beating assist to Jae Crowder for his first ever NBA win. Over the course of the season Ja continued to prove himself as the leader of a young Grizzlies team, and surprised the league by almost bringing them to the playoffs in just his rookie season. Though incredibly talented and able to drag the Grizzlies to some wins single handedly, Ja alone was not enough to get the Grizzlies into the first round after Jaren suffered an injury early on in the bubble. This isn’t a knock against Ja of course, but it does lead one to ask what exactly Jaren brings to the table as a 2nd option next to Ja and what the future might hold for them together as teammates. Jaren's 2nd Season Unlike his rookie teammate, Jaren’s 2019-20 season was fairly under the radar. As a small market that was a bubble playoff team, it's understandable that not a ton of media time got spent covering the Grizzlies, and if it was it was usually focused on Ja’s incredible highlights. As a result, not many outside of the Grizzlies fan base are aware of just how unique his recent season was, or how it compares to some players you might not have considered. Jaren Jackson Jr. didn’t just have a good season shooting the 3 ball compared to other bigs, he had a good season compared to ALL 3 point shooters in the league, and did it at a younger age than anyone in NBA history when looking at both his volume and efficiency. This past season at just 20 years old, Jaren Jackson Jr. scored 17.4 points on 59.3% true shooting, to go along with 4.6 boards, 1.4 assists, 0.7 steals, and 1.6 blocks in 28.5 minutes per game. Despite it being his second season in the league, he is still the youngest player in NBA history to play at least 1000 minutes in a season and score at least 17 points per game on 59% true shooting or better. This is largely a result of the extreme shift his offense has seen since his rookie season. In Jaren’s rookie season, his shot selection was fairly typical of a modern big that will step out to the three point line on occasion. For the season he took roughly 75% of his shots from 2, and 25% of his shots from 3. Breaking down his 2 point field goals further, he took around a third of his total shots right at the rim, and a third of his shots in the rest of the paint, with only 10% of his shots coming from the midrange. Things changed drastically for JJJ’s offense in 2019. A new analytically minded front office and a young head coach willing to try new things looked at Jaren’s shot chart from his rookie year, and trimmed all the fat. They saw a player with legitimate volume 3 point shooting and decided to run with it. Going from a roughly 75/25 split in the previous season, in 2019-20 the breakdown was almost even split, with 368 of his 753 shot attempts coming from behind the 3 point line. Overall, Jaren took a little less than a quarter of his shots within 3 feet of the basket, a similar amount from 3 to 10 feet, just 4% of his shots in the midrange, and everything else from 3. From 0.9 made 3’s on 2.4 attempts his rookie season (35.9%), his volume shot up to 2.5 made 3’s on 6.5 attempts his 2nd year (39.4%). As with his overall scoring and efficiency, Jaren is record setting in his youth combined with his 3 point shooting and efficiency. Only 2 players in NBA history have averaged 2.5 made 3’s a game at 20 years old or younger. Luka Doncic this same season scored 2.8 3’s on 8.9 attempts per game. Like fellow draft class player Trae Young, he has taken the ‘James Harden’ approach to 3 point shooting where instead of having elite efficiency, he instead ‘brute forces’ 3 point attempts, taking them often in isolation off of dribble moves and from extreme range, resulting in him only shooting 31.6% from 3. Though making a slightly lower, 2.5 3’s a game, Jaren’s 39.4% efficiency dwarfs Luka’s. Only 6 players 20 years old or younger have made at least 100 3’s in a season at 39% or better: Jayson Tatum, Mike Miller, Bradley Beal, Kyrie Irving, Collin Sexton, and Jaren Jackson Jr. who leads the group in 3 point attempts per game. You would think that for a 7 ft power forward to shoot with that kind of efficiency they would need to be mostly catch and shoot open 3’s, or maybe mostly at the shorter corner spots, but no, like his elite 3 point shooting guard and small forward contemporaries, Jaren is simply good at shooting in a variety of ways under all sorts of pressure. Spot ups, off the dribble, from all spots around the arc, from absurd range, in isolation, heavily contested, there isn’t a shot that Jaren is afraid of taking. Jaren has put up great efficiency shooting in all sorts of scenarios this past season. His greatest strength and one he utilizes often is his ability to shoot coming around screens. A little over half his 3 point makes (74/145) involved Jaren moving prior to the shot, in the form of coming off or around screens, trailing in the half court, dribble moves in isolation, or step backs. He can get his feet set and has a lightning quick release, so even though the release is low he is incredibly effective at getting his shot off. Simply put, it is arguable Jaren Jackson Jr. has been better at 3 point shooting at a younger age than any other player in NBA history. I don’t think he’ll ever attempt 15 3’s a game like Steph Curry, just that through this point of his career Jaren has displayed a talent never before seen in the history of the league from someone so young. And that’s without considering the fact he is nearly 7 feet tall barefoot. This elite shooting has defenses scrambling when it comes to guarding Jaren. He utilizes the threat of his elite shooting to blow by overreaching defenders, taking advantage of his rare height and athleticism combination to get past defenders and get good shots in the paint or free throws from a defender that collapses too late. His age does tend to show here, and he will sometimes seem to hesitate or make the wrong move and end up in no man’s land a bit too far from the basket where his efficiency drops significantly. Shooting roughly a quarter of his shots from within 3 feet, he connects on a highly efficient 70.8% of his shots. But outside that in the 3-10 ft. range, another area where he shoots from about 25% of the time, his efficiency plummets to 40.6%. Though this does bring his overall 2 point field goal percentage down to 54%, the silver lining is that it shows that there’s room for growth, and that Jaren can potentially improve his already incredible efficiency just through natural growth and experience. If he can avoid foul trouble and increase both his minutes and usage, Jaren may actually have the potential to be an elite volume scoring player that can lead a playoff team in points. I feel this idea was mostly strongly supported by Jaren’s brief run in the bubble, where in all 3 games he showed notable growth over the player he was 4 months prior at the start of Covid. With 8 games and playoff aspirations on the line, the Grizzlies shifted into a more playoff style rotation, and with Jaren’s fouling toned down a little bit he managed to average 37 minutes per game compared to his sub 30 minute average for the season. In those 37 minutes Jaren saw a bump in both his attempts and his efficiency, upping his shot attempts from 13.2 to 17.3. Continuing to optimize his offense, the majority of his additional 4.1 field goal attempts went to his 3 point shooting, where he upped his attempts from 6.5 to 9.3 per game, a rate that would tie him with Devonte Graham at 7th most 3 pointers attempted per game this season. This is obviously a small sample size, and his 3 point efficiency did drop to 35.7% over the 3 games, but it was also a ‘proof of concept:’ Jaren’s increased 3 point attempts pulled defenders even further out of the paint than they might have ventured during the season, which a slightly bigger and more experienced Jaren Jackson Jr took advantage of with great results. Though only increasing his 2 point field goal attempts from 6.8 to 8.0 per game in an additional 8.5 minutes of play time, his improved ability and easier time getting to the rim meant that his efficiency jumped from just 54% to 62.5%, increasing his points per game by 2.6 with just 1.2 more shot attempts. Combine that fact with unprepared defenses sending Jaren to the line more than twice as often (3.3 FTA season average vs. 6.7 FTA bubble average), over the 3 games Jaren averaged 25.3 points on 62.5% true shooting. Jaren’s Potential Unfortunately a small meniscus tear took him down before we got the chance to see if the trend would continue. But with the timetable for his return to health likely lining up with the start of next season in December, we may finally get to see if Bubble Jaren’s offense is the real deal or not. Coach Taylor Jenkins is from the BudenholzePopovich coaching tree, and as a result tends to keep his rotations deep and the minutes spread, so it’s unlikely Jaren will see 37 minutes a game in the regular season. But if he can limit some of his fouling issues and increase his play time up to about 33 minutes, hopefully he could split the difference a bit and increase his overall volume and free throw attempts, improve his 2 point percentage, without such a large drop in his 3 point percentage. Predicting the future of a player is hard, especially a player who’s statistical accomplishments are so unprecedented. A large part of orchestrating an NBA offense is deciding how many shots each player on the floor is going to get. Coaches want the most efficient players to get the most shots, and as a result usually give a majority of the shots to older more established players that have more efficient offensive games. Of all 529 NBA players in the 2019-20 season, only 70 were able to get at least 10 shots a game on above 55% true shooting average while playing half at least 41 games. This group of 70 essentially makes up every key player in the NBA. If you normally follow 1 specific team for a majority of the season, these might be all the players from other teams you could name off the top of your head. As you would imagine, the majority of these players are in their ‘prime’ years, with about 70% of them between the ages of 23 and 30. A player being 20 or younger in this category is rare, with their only being 3 such players this season: Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, and Jaren Jackson Jr. In fact, a player 20 years old or younger has met these benchmarks only 24 times since the NBA added the 3 point line. (20 Year Old Key Player List by fga/poss)
Player
FGA per 100 Poss.
Age
MPG
FGA
FTA
TS%
3PA
3P%
Luka Doncic
29.6
20
33.6
20.6
9.2
58.5
8.9
31.6
Kyrie Irving
27.2
20
34.7
18.1
4.9
55.3
4.7
39.1
LeBron James
26.6
20
42.4
21.1
8.0
55.4
3.9
35.1
Kyrie Irving
25.2
19
30.5
14.6
3.8
56.6
3.6
39.9
Kevin Durant
24.7
20
39.0
18.8
7.1
57.7
3.1
42.2
Anthony Davis
22.2
20
35.2
15.0
6.6
58.2
0.1
22.2
Karl-Anthony Towns
22.1
20
32.0
14.1
3.4
59.0
1.1
34.1
Jaren Jackson Jr.
21.7
20
28.5
13.2
3.3
59.3
6.5
39.4
Shaquille O'Neal
21.2
20
37.9
16.1
8.9
58.4
0.0
0.0
Ja Morant
21.1
20
31.0
14.0
4.6
55.6
2.7
33.5
Marvin Bagley
21.0
19
25.3
11.4
4.2
56.2
1.5
31.3
Lauri Markkanen
20.8
20
29.7
12.7
2.4
55.2
5.9
36.2
Chris Webber
20.6
20
32.1
13.6
4.7
55.9
0.2
0.0
Jamal Murray
20.5
20
31.7
13.1
3.1
57.6
5.4
37.8
Tyler Herro
20.4
20
27.4
11.5
1.8
55.0
5.4
38.9
Anthony Davis
19.9
19
28.8
10.6
3.5
55.9
0.1
0.0
Jaren Jackson Jr.
19.3
19
26.1
10.2
3.4
59.1
2.4
35.9
Deandre Ayton
19.0
20
30.7
12.3
2.7
60.8
0.1
0.0
Brook Lopez
18.0
20
30.5
10.3
2.6
56.8
0.0
0.0
Eric Gordon
17.5
20
34.3
11.6
4.5
59.3
4.3
38.9
Jayson Tatum
17.1
19
30.5
10.4
3.2
58.6
3.0
43.4
Myles Turner
17.1
20
31.4
10.7
3.7
58.5
1.4
34.8
Dwight Howard
15.9
20
36.8
10.7
7.3
56.5
0.0
0.0
Magic Johnson
15.7
20
36.3
12.3
6.0
60.2
0.4
22.6
Compared to the others on this list, Jaren is just the 3rd to have his name appear twice, joining Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving as the only 2 players to be highly efficient ‘key’ offensive players in both their age 19 and age 20 seasons. Of the 24 seasons that fit the criteria, Jaren’s 2019-20 Season ranks 12th in points per game at 17.4, while being tied for 3rd overall in efficiency at 59.3% true shooting. His 6.5 3PA per game is 2nd overall, and his 39.4 3P% is 4th overall, while averaging 4th fewest minutes amongst players listed. For the purpose of predicting Jaren’s growth as an offensive player, these are essentially his peers. By looking at players that took a similar number of shot attempts per 100 possessions at his same age on a similar efficiency, we can see what type of increase in offensive load they saw going into their age 21 season. If we apply a similar increase to Jaren’s shot attempts while also increasing his minutes per game, we can get a rough idea of how many shots Jaren might take in an average game next season. The players shooting at a similar rate to Jaren saw roughly a 10% increase in both their shots per possession, and free throws per possession. If Jaren see’s similar growth to the other players around him on this list, and is able to increase his minutes to about 33 per game by improving his conditioning and reducing his fouls, he should be able to get up to around 17 field goal attempts per game next year, and 4.2 free throw attempts. If like this season he has about a 50/50 split between his 2 point and 3 point attempts, and if he shoots at his career averages from each area on the floor and free throws, that would have him scoring 22.3 points per game on 59.2% true shooting. If he were to reach those marks he would likely be in elite company, with only 10 players this past season scoring at least 22 points on 59% true shooting or better while playing in a majority of games.
Player
Age
MPG
PPG
TS%
Damian Lillard
29
37.5
30.0
62.7
James Harden
30
36.5
34.3
62.6
Devin Booker
23
35.9
26.6
61.8
Trae Young
21
35.3
29.6
59.5
Anthony Davis
26
34.4
26.1
61.0
DeMar DeRozan
30
34.1
22.1
60.3
Karl-Anthony Towns
24
33.9
26.5
64.2
Kyrie Irving
27
32.9
27.4
59.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo
25
30.4
29.5
61.3
Joel Embiid
25
29.5
23.0
59.0
Though I feel my methodology is sound, it still feels like it might be an optimistic expectation when compared to history. Only 6 players have ever scored so much, so efficiently, over the course of a season at the age of 21. Trae Young this past season, Karl Anthony Towns in 16-17, Anthony Davis in 14-15, Kevin Durant in 08-09, Shaq in 93-94, and rookie Michael Jordan. If Jaren does manage to reach this list next season, it may all but confirm his potential to become one of the most offensively dominant players in NBA history. However, all 6 of those players have completely different styles of offense, so it’s a bit hard to determine if Jaren’s offense has the same kind of potential. It's also far removed from the expectations he had coming into the league, when he was mostly valued for his defense and was viewed as having a Chris Bosh type offense. So to try and find players with play styles similar to Jaren’s, I narrowed some of the search filters on to players above 6’10, and lowered the efficiency benchmark to just 50% TS to hopefully get as many players in league history that have played like Jaren, even if they weren’t as efficient at it due to old offenses not driven by analytics. I know volume 3 point shooting is a recent trend, especially for big men in particular, so I also set a filter for players that attempted at least 1 3 a game, on at least 35.8% (current league average) 3 point shooting. They might not shoot as many 3’s as Jaren, but I assumed traditional NBA offenses would have their bigs shooting more mid range shots, and if they at least attempted a 3 every game it would imply they shoot a significant number of shots close to the 3 point line.
Player
Age
MPG
PPG
FGA
TS%
3PA
3P%
Jaren Jackson Jr.
19
26.1
13.8
10.2
59.1
2.4
35.9
Jaren Jackson Jr.
20
28.5
17.4
13.2
59.3
6.5
39.4
Lauri Markkanen
20
29.7
15.2
12.7
55.2
5.9
36.2
Lamar Odom
20
36.4
16.6
13.5
52.1
2.2
36.0
Kevin Durant
20
39.0
25.3
18.8
57.7
3.1
42.2
Lauri Markkanen
21
32.3
18.7
15.3
55.3
6.4
36.1
Danilo Gallinari
21
33.9
15.1
11.4
57.5
6.0
38.1
Dirk Nowitzki
21
35.8
17.5
13.6
56.4
3.7
37.9
Karl-Anthony Towns
21
37.0
25.1
18.0
61.8
3.4
36.7
Dario Saric
21
29.6
14.6
11.4
58.2
5.1
39.3
A fairly interesting mix of players, with one you might not have expected in Lamar Odom, a few solid modern forward bigs in Saric, Gallinari, and Markkanen, a modern center that has had a great start to his career in Towns, and some all time great forwards in Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Durant. A positive sign, Jaren is notably the youngest player on this list (tied with Durant at 20 as well as the only player to do it at age 19 his rookie year), and though in the lower middle of the pack in terms of field goal attempts per game (6th), he is 2nd in TS% at 59.3%, 2nd in 3P% at 39.4% (Kevin Durant had his career best mark his 2nd year), and 1st in 3PA/G at 6.5, all while playing the fewest minutes per game. A side note here. I know Jaren’s rebounding is a fairly big concern of a lot of fans. If you look at all of these players who Jaren has a lot in common with, you will notice that rebounding rate appears pretty consistent depending on which position the player gets most of their minutes at. Dirk, Danillo, Dario, Durant, and Jaren all hover around a 10% total rebound rate through their first couple seasons. Embiid and KAT who both play center full time are up near 20%. Dirk improved his total rebound rate in the 3rd year of his career when he started playing more minutes at center and had filled out a bit more, and I expect Jaren to do the same. Overall, when compared to players that match him in play style and when comparing him to players that match him in efficiency, Jaren shines amongst his peers at a very young age. Super Saiyan Jaren Jackson Jr. aka SSMVPJAREN For fun, I wanted to try and imagine what Jaren might look like at his peak. His numbers seem to line up well with Kevin Durant and Dirk Nowitzki, who also happen to be 2 players with a ton of playoff runs to pick from, as well as plenty of time playing next to elite point guards. In 2011 Dirk proved doubters wrong by leading the Mavericks to a championship, paving the way with his 27.7 points on 18.9 shots and 8.9 free throw attempts for an incredibly efficient (relative to league play) 60.9% TS in the playoffs. In 2017, Kevin Durant made the most of his super team upgrade by scoring 28.5 points on just 17.9 shots and 6.9 free throw attempts, an absolutely absurd 68.3% TS, one of the 6 most efficient volume scoring playoff runs of all time, and the only player of those 6 to play past the first round. So that’s about 18.5 shots and 7.9 free throws a game for future Prime Jaren to work with, assuming he takes a similar offensive load. If Jaren does grow into the same type of elite volume shooter, with his current shooting breakdown and a league that’s constantly trying to optimize, at this point in his career Jaren might still be shooting a little over half his attempts from 3, while an increase in size and skill means he gets to the rim on 30% of his attempts, while the remaining 20% come from the rest of the paint. If he plays some of the best basketball of his career like other all time greats in their best runs, maybe he’s hitting 75% on his shots at the rim, 50% in the rest of the paint, and 42% from 3, with 80% free throw shooting. That volume, shot breakdown, and volume would result in Jaren scoring exactly 30 points a game on a scorching 68.3% TS, while potentially being the anchor small ball center of one of the top defenses in the league. Of course, this is by far the most optimistic outlook on Jaren’s future in the league. Plenty of players fail to meet expectations they set early on, and many more get injured and never get the opportunity to even try. Some players get stuck in less than ideal situations with bad teammates or coaches. There’s so much that could go wrong, that statistically it’s very likely Jaren doesn’t reach these lofty heights. But through this point in his career, I would argue that the league has never seen a player quite like Jaren, and there’s never been one set up quite as well going forward. An equally gifted teammate who’s playstyle and skill will maximize Jaren’s potential, a data driven management that will work to put Jaren in the best situations possible on the court, and all the time, athleticism, opportunity and skill in the world needed to be a star in the league... maybe even an MVP. If you read all of that, please comment below if you want to discuss further or want to ask about any of the math/research I did. Let's go Grizzlies!
Do the Warriors have a top 5 (or top 8) starting lineup in the West?
Inspired by a series of comments in the /nba pre-season power rankings thread. I look at this Warriors roster and it's really lacking, especially after Klay went down, so I agree with you. Curry's Curry and we all know how good he is and how much he elevates everyone else, but other teams are trotting out formidable starting lineups and much better benches than the Warriors (which matters when thinking about regular season standings). For reference, the Warriors' starting lineup is likely Curry/Wiggins/Oubre/Draymond/Wiseman. I summed the starting lineup numbers from fivethirtyeight.com. The values are not perfect by any means and due for a lot of movement as data from the regular season starts getting put into the system, especially for young players and players with surprising improvement or worsening. However, as a snapshot of current performance, here are the starting lineups numbers. I also acknowledge that "total" isn't a great way to compare these because it's simply summing offense and defense and it is unclear whether those aspects of the game can be treated that way. Still, it's good to see these data.
Team
Offense
Defense
Total
LAC
5.8
8.3
14.1
POR
9
4
13
LAL
6
6.9
12.9
DEN
7.9
4.6
12.5
DAL
9
1.2
10.2
PHO
8.3
1
9.3(!)
NOP
5.4
2.9
8.3(!)
HOU
6.7
1.1
7.8
UTA
3.2
3.9
7.1
SAS
0.9
4.6
5.5
MIN
7.1
-2.7
4.4
GSW
3.2
1.1
4.3
SAC
3.2
-2.4
0.8
MEM
-2.7
2.8
0.1
OKC
-5.7
4.4
-1.3
One of other comments says that the Warriors a top 5 starting 5 while the other says they're definitely top 8. By these numbers, their starting lineup is definitely worse than Lakers (LeBron and AD, with Gasol/KCP/Schroder make this a difficult one to crack), Portland (Lillard/CJ/RoCo/Jones Jr./Nurk), Mavs (Luka/KP with THJ/Richardson/Kleber), Clippers (Kawhi/PG/Pat Bev/Morris/Ibaka) and Denver (Murray/Jokic/Harris/MPJ/Millsap). Phoenix (CP3/BookeBridges/CrowdeAyton), New Orleans (Ball/Bledsoe/BI/Zion/Adams), Houston (Wall/Harden/Gordon/TuckeWood), and Utah (Conley/Mitchell/O'Neale/Bojan/Gobert) are some distance away, too. That's already 9 teams. This metric even has SAS/MIN ahead of GSW, leaving them at 12th. Maybe you don't like numbers. Maybe you don't like 538's or my methodology. Maybe you think RAPTOR is a load of crap. Fine. I'll make a more organic argument for the Warriors being out of the top 8 starting lineups. I don't think I need convince the reader that the Lakers, Clippers, Mavs, and Denver have more formidable lineups. Lakers have two top 5 players and a solid lineup around them, Clippers have a top 5 player, a high-tier wingman, and good pieces, Denver has Jokic (arguably top 5), Murray, and a rapidly ascending MPJ, and Mavs have the current MVP betting favorite in Luka with players who fit great around him. Portland has a really good starting lineup around Dame and I contend they would have been so much better last regular season if Nurkic were healthy (he's a beast). Adding RoCo is an amazing move, too. Phoenix added CP3, who is an advanced stats darling, and he should elevate the play of his new teammates. Further improvement from Booker, Ayton, and Bridges should make this team have a better starting lineup. They even match up favorably if you compare by position (this can be argued). The Pelicans were a surprise to me. 538's model really likes, but doesn't necessarily love, all their starters. Houston's rating hinges strongly on Harden's status. He's an incredible outlier (+8.1/+1.9) in their model and Houston's rating would go in the trash if any of the packages floating around for him were to materialize. Utah isn't as good as I would like it as a Jazz fan, but we do have an older lineup and I assume the model thinks Conley/Bojan are in the declines of their career. Still, we have a solid starting lineup and should be able to stand toe-to-toe against most contenders. At the least, we should be able to shoot the shit out of the 3 ball. I won't comment too much on the Spurs or** T'Wolves**. 538's model is pretty lukewarm on DeRozan and Aldridge, but it loves Derrick White and Poeltl. Towns is rightfully a great offensive player and lost defensive player, but I expect their rating to rise as Anthony Edwards looks great and should have no problems adjusting to the NBA. That brings us to the Warriors. What do they need to be top 8 or top 5? The Warriors need Wiseman to be really good, really fast for them to hop into the top 5 stating lineups. They also need Curry to work some of that Curry magic on Wiggins' and Oubre's numbers. Wiggins and Oubre are serviceable starters, but they're both barely league-average-efficiency volume scorers who are decent but not spectacular at defense. Dray's also going to revert back to his pre-2018 form. It's possible, but they have a lot to show us before staking a claim as a top 8 starting lineup in the West. The West has a lot of scary starting lineups and the Warriors are going to have a gel really quickly to knock other teams down a peg. Note: Losing Klay hurt a lot, but he actually would have been a hindrance to their 538 rating. However, 538's model has kind of always underrated Klay and his role on the team. TL;DR: Based on this, I hope I've convinced you that the Warriors, without Klay, definitely do not have a top 5 starting lineup in the Western Conference. They may yet have a top 8 starting lineup, but a lot of things need to go right for them.
Hey GOATs, share you guys's favourite "GOAT Podcast"/"Open Floor" in-jokes or turns of phrase in the comments so that I can add them to this "GOAT dictionary" :) Here are some of mine off the top of my head, do correct me if I got something wrong or tell me if you would like to edit or add more context to the definitions---
Phrase: 12-time Tatum
Definition: A humorous, mildly prophetic prediction (?) made in the Open Floor era about rookie Jayson Tatum going on to make 12 All-Star teams in his career
Phrase: Playing with purpose, not playing withapurpose
Definition: Playing like Russell Westbrook. A Golliver-ism.
Phrase: "Do you have a mouse in your pocket or...?"
Definition: Used by Podcaster Ben whenever Podcaster Andrew includes Ben in one of his takes without consulting Ben prior to releasing said take, e.g. Andrew saying "I think we both agree that Trae's ceiling is higher than Luka's" followed immediately by Ben cutting in with a snappy, "Do you have a mouse in your pocket or... 'cuz I do not agree with that" (or something along those lines)
Phrase: Greased Pig
Definition: Andrew Sharp. (To be more precise, Sharp's tendency to flip-flop on various topics)
Phrase: Sorry Elizabeth
Definition: The podcaster apologises to young listener Elizabeth for swearing (unintentionally or otherwise) during the podcast. Only Andrew swears, but the phrase has been used by both podcasters.
Phrase: Giannis Inc.
Definition: A GOAT-founded corporation championing Giannis Antetokounmpo, 2-time NBA MVP and the patron saint of the podcast. (Context: both podcasters adore Giannis.) Podcaster Ben is Giannis Inc.’s co-founder and its current President; Podcaster Andrew is also a co-founder, but was forcibly removed from his position following an executive board decision earlier in 2020 after differences of opinion regarding Giannis and the direction of his current team, the Milwaukee Bucks.
Phrase: 12-time Enterprises
Definition: Another GOAT-founded corporation, started by Podcaster Sharp following his unceremonious ousting from Giannis Inc. (See: 12-Time Tatum)
Phrase: Loose Lips Paul
Definition: Refers to Los Angeles Clippers All-Star Paul George running his mouth at post-game podiums, dating back to his time on the Indiana Pacers
Phrase: Root Canal Reggie
Definition: I can't remember the exact scenario which prompted this term's creation, but it likely refers to Los Angeles Clippers guard Reggie Jackson's decision-making on offense being so excruciatingly painful to watch that it reminds the podcaster of a root canal operation
Phrase: Influencing the Influencers
Definition: Podcaster Ben (either meant in jest or otherwise) influences several influential members of society with his incredible wisdom
Phrase: Fence-sitting Pig
Definition: A variation of "Greased Pig", where Podcaster Andrew not only changes his opinions frequently but sometimes sits on the fence entirely, refusing to commit to a take one way or another
Phrase: The Best Ability is Availability
Definition: Another supposed Golliver-ism. One of the core tenets of the podcast.
Phrase: Andrew Sharp Reports
Definition: A recurring segment on the podcast coined by Podcaster Ben, where Podcaster Andrew reveals his true, candid, unedited thoughts on a given topic
Phrase: "You're Right about the Little Things, I'm Right about the Big Things"
Definition: Podcaster Ben is right about the Little Things, Podcaster Andrew is right about the Big Things. A Sharp-ism. One of the core tenets of the podcast.
Phrase: Generic Praise
Definition: Refers to emailers writing in to request that the Podcasters throw their favourite player or team a bone by rattling off some soulless compliments about them
Phrase: Big Game James
Definition: A mocking reference to James Harden, 2018 NBA MVP, and his apparent repeated failures to deliver during big playoff games. A Sharp-ism. (Context: Andrew detests Harden.)
Phrase: Spurs Monastery
Definition: A religion which members of the San Antonio Spurs organisation and fanbase subscribe to. Bitheistic: Pop and Duncan. (Context: Podcaster Ben is a devotee.)
Phrase: (Not) Fronting for the GOATs
Definition: (Not) putting up a false front in front of the GOAT podcast's listeners, and speaking things which the podcaster doesn't truly believe in, or saying things just for the sake of saying them. One of the core tenets of the podcast.
Phrase: Take nothing but pictures, leave nothing but footprints
Definition: (or something like that) An adopted Golliver-ism which applies for anyone who visits a natural landmark
Phrase: Never judge a player on his best day, or on his worst day
Definition: Refers to not overreacting to single game performances. A Golliver-ism.
Phrase: Cute Story
Definition: Overperforming, fun-to-root-for underdog teams who fail to make it deep in the playoffs. Apparently not meant as an insult. Examples include the 2016 Hawks, the 2018 Raptors, and/or the 2020 Bucks Thunder.
Phrase: Ben Golliver Reports
Definition: The Ben Golliver version of "Andrew Sharp Reports"
Phrase: Saikofent
Definition: Podcaster Andrew's pronunciation of "sycophant"
Phrase: "(YouMy) Nephew, Brandon Ingram"
Definition: A little known tidbit for newer listeners - New Orleans Pelicans All-Star wing Brandon Ingram is Podcaster Andrew's estranged nephew
EDITS (thanks GOATs ❤️):
Phrase: Toronto Termites
Definition: The ravenous, imperishable, innumerable Toronto Raptor fans who subscribe to the GOAT podcast and have emailed in for years to defend DeMar and Lowry’s honour from repeated Golliver slander
Phrase: Win Connoisseur
Definition: Valuing wins regardless of cost, context or process; favor dynasties, including ‘90s Bulls and Alabama football. A Golliver-ism
Phrase: Grandpa Golliver
Definition: Podcaster Ben imposing his anachronistic world view and old fashioned moral code on listeners. A Sharp-ism.
Phrase: "Let's save that conversation for another time"
Definition: Andrew's new favorite segue where he tables a conversation with no intention of ever coming back to it.
Phrase: "I don't think my brain is ready for that/this yet"
Definition: A phrase used by Andrew whenever he refuses to conceive of a future possibility (e.g. a trade), or to think about a recent momentous shift in the league. This sometimes irks Golliver, and there has been an episode where he had enough of it, snapping back by saying "Well, get your brain ready!"
Phrase: West Coast elitist / Western Conference elitism
Definition: Referring to Podcaster Ben's oft-saddled high-horse regarding the absolute superiority of the Western Conference over the East. One of the core tenets of the podcast. (Context: Podcaster Andrew is a proud son of the East.)
Phrase: Sunrise Conference
Definition: (See - West Coast elitist.) The Eastern Conference. A Golliver-ism.
Phrase: Triple A / AAA
Definition: (See - West Coast elitist.) The Eastern Conference. A Golliver-ism.
Phrase: The Show
Definition: (See - West Coast elitist.) The Western Conference. A Golliver-ism.
Phrase: Paul Milsap exchange rate
Definition: (See - West Coast elitist.) A humorous allusion made to the "inflation" that happens to a player's value when they move from the Western conference to the East, due to the lower levels of competition present in the East Coast, as seen when Paul Millsap moved from Utah to Atlanta in the 2013-14 season and immediately became a 4-time All-Star.
Phrase: Scott Travis
Definition: Travis Scott, American rapper, whose name has been affectionately butchered on the podcast for years now. He is another patron saint of the podcast.
Phrase: Beaverton, OR.
Definition: Famous for Drake music videos, home of Nike, hometown of basketball luminaries Ben Golliver and Ian Karmel.
Phrase: Bystander to his own life/reality
Definition: Carmelo Anthony - specifically post-Knicks, pre-Blazers Melo, referring how he was spending his post-prime years refusing to change his inefficient playstyle to adapt to the modern era or adjust his attitude towards demanding a starting role as playoff teams understandably passed him by, gradually resulting him in being phased out of the league altogether, before his heartwarming return to the collective NBA subconscious this past season with Dame and Portland. A Golliver-ism.
Phrase: 7-11 employee
Definition: Luka Dončić. An infamous Sharp-ism, body-shaming the 21 y/o Slovenian superstar. (Context: Andrew was an adamant Luka-skeptic, refusing to believe in the Luka magic, before making one of the greatest Heel-Face Turns of the 21st century & pivoting himself to the right side of history midway through the historic NBA Bubble, apparently after watching a flashy between-the-legs pocket pass Luka made in the clutch against the league-leading Milwaukee Bucks and Giannis Inc. as part of a masterful 36 point-19 assist performance to lead the Mavs to a thrilling OT-win against the reigning league MVP.)
Phrase: "Ky-Lee"
Definition: Podcaster Golliver's pronunciation of Kylie Jenner's name
Phrase: "A-key-lees"
Definition: Podcaster Sharp's pronunciation of Achilles.
Phrase: "...MY Boston Celtics"
Definition: Podcaster Sharp's partially joking, partially self-hating embrace of the Boston Celtics fandom in recent years. (Context: Andrew is a semi-retired lifelong Wizards fan, pending how well or poorly John Wall Russell Westbrook plays this upcoming season.)
Phrase: #BlueBubbleGang
Definition: Apple elitists. As summarized by Podcaster Sharp, "Whatever a sneakerhead is for Apple products, that's what Ben Golliver is." A Golliver-ism.
Phrase: Takesmen
Definition: Fans and analysts who provide basketball-related takes that are so beautifully refined and finely fermented that they can only be referred to by the highest of epithets --- "Takesmen". (Context: Ben & Andrew talked with Shaq & Chuck during the 2019 All-Star weekend and their scorching-hot takes inspired the creation of the term.)
Phrase: Heaters
Definition: HOT, HOT takes. E.g. Zion is going to be Rodney Rogers.
Phrase: LeBronzo
Definition: Started in 2018 Summer League, this was Podcaster Golliver's crusade to pair the brands of LeBron James and Lonzo Ball, a prophecy that was finally fulfilled (at least temporarily) when LeBron actually joined Lonzo's Lakers a year later
Phrase: "I want to take a moment to apologise to the listeners..."
Definition: A phrase used by Andrew when Ben goes off on a rant or when the duo get sidetracked and go off on several humorous, often not-NBA-related tangents for 20 or so minutes (peak GOAT content)
Phrase: Ben's biggest hater
Definition: Podcaster Golliver's biggest hater is his mom
Phrase: "KahDay"
Definition: Cade Cunningham, future lottery pick, whose name Podcaster Sharp confidently mispronounced during a quarantine episode after ill-advisedly taking a random Twitter user's words seriously. Has since been fact-checked, but much like 'Saikofant', "KahDay" is now a part of GOAT lore
Phrase: Ranger Rick
Definition: Affectionately used to refer to Podcaster Golliver's nature-loving, National-Park-roaming tendencies
Phrase: BonHeads
Definition: A humorous reference to Bon Iver fans, who went after Podcaster Golliver after he dissed Iver while discussing the latter's presence in Taylor Swift album "Folklore". Far from apologizing, Ben doubled down in very Golliver-fashion and the name has stuck ever since
Phrase: Brickhead
Definition: Lego-fans. Both podcasters are now brickheads, as is, apparently, Myles Turner.
Phrase: Reality-based person
Definition: Ben Golliver
Phrase: "Andrew’s on social media, but don’t even worry about it"
Definition: Part of Golliver's closing spiel during every podcast
Phrase: Kevin Durant, role player
Definition: A memorable, half-joking Sharp heater from the Warriors KD era (See: Heaters.)
Phrase: Stonehenge witches conspiracy theories
Definition: A Golliver rant from early Open Floor days during which Andrew went from bemused listener to invested participant
Phrase: The Lantern
Definition: A recurring segment on the podcast where Ben releases a not-necessarily-basketball-related prompt on his Instagram and listeners can respond with their personal stories and/or takes on the topic
Phrase: Power-ranking World War 2 countries
Definition: A hilarious and controversial Golliver-sparked conversation that the duo had during the 2019 offseason. Some memorable quotes: "Never judge people on their best day, or their worst day...I need to do a more balanced analysis of Germany's role in WW2 --- I can't just rush to say America's number 1 and Germany's dead-last"; "Is Blitzkrieg fighting with Purpose or A Purpose?"; "The Greatest Ability is Availability, and Russia was very available in world war 2"; and "Should we really be numerically ranking human beings?"
[OC] Using Machine Learning to Project NBA Three Point Percentage for 2020 NBA Draft Prospects
With the draft less than a week away, I wanted to share a recent project on projecting NBA three point percentage using college statistics. While the results are by no means perfect or fully encompassing, I think they provide an interesting non-biased perspective on each prospect’s shooting profile. Results are here, explanation is below! Questions about a college player translating into an NBA prospect often start and end with that player’s ability to shoot at the NBA level. Some players pan out as shooters in the NBA despite a lack of a college shooting resume, while others light up from beyond the three point line in college but struggle to shoot in the NBA. Donovan Mitchell shot only 32.9% from three in college, but has proceeded to shoot 35.5% from three in the NBA despite a farther line and more difficult shots. Jayson Tatum shot only 34.2% from three in college but has showed elite shooting ability in the NBA at 40.1% from three. Malik Monk shot 39.7% from three in college on a lot of attempts, but has only shot 32.2% in the NBA. This question isn’t just whether fringe shooters will be able to shoot at the NBA level, but also how we can identify which elite college shooters will be elite NBA shooters. While Duncan Robinson was certainly a very good college shooter, few argued that he would be the top 10 NBA shooter that he is today. Someone like Ian Clark on the other hand, had very impressive college shooting stats but has not shot all that well in the NBA. Shooting should be something that is possible to predict at least somewhat accurately using college statistics. Unlike other aspects of basketball, shooting is one thing that stays fairly similar between college and the NBA. While the three point line does extend, the step up from college to NBA shooting is not nearly as big as the step up in things such as athleticism, rim protection or perimeter defense. Major draft questions this year hinge on shooting ability for a number of highly regarded prospects. Can Isaac Okoro develop a shot to complement his defensive and passing ability? Will Tyrese Haliburton’s elite shooting percentages hold up despite his form? Can Onyeka Okongwu move his shooting range out to the three point line? As an NBA draft fanatic, I’ve always been excited by the possibility of projecting NBA shooting using college stats. Despite the potential uses of a three point percentage predictor, there is little public data about projecting college shooting to the NBA. Other articles about this topic have used limited variables and have mainly compared the importance of basic statistics such as college three point percentage, college three point attempts, and college free throw percentage. There doesn’t seem to be a public attempt to predict NBA three point percentage using any significant amount of past college data. I collected data from Sports Reference and barttorvik.com using a combination of scraping methods and being sent data (thanks so much to Bart Torvik for sending me a lot of data from his website!). After all the data was collected (a very painstaking process), I had over 150 columns in RStudio of variables for each NBA player between 2010 and 2019 (as far as the statistics went back). I’m not going to explain much of my process of transforming the data and finding the best possible regression (if you are interested, I have a more “mathy” explanation here), but the end result left me with a weighted least squared regression with 9 variables that proved to be consistently statistically significant after data transformations, and a usable regression equation to predict NBA three point percentage. The weights used in the regression were the z scores of combined NBA and college minutes for each player (meant to give players with a higher sample size more weight in the model). The adjusted R-Squared value for the regression was 0.4704 and the scaled average residual was 0.0355. This average residual value means that the model was on average predictive of a players NBA three point percentage within 4 percentage points. Because the finding of this regression was done with a “prediction” mindset rather than an “inference” mindset, not much can be inferred about the impact of each individual variable on the ending three point percentage prediction. However, I’m confident that the regression has useful predictive value. The 9 statistically significant variables are listed below:
Years played in college (min. 20% of team’s minutes for year to count)
Age in June of draft year
College far two FG percentage (basically mid range FG%, from Barttorvik.com)
College three point attempts
College free throw percentage
Bayesian college three point percentage (a modified version of college three point percentage)
College assisted three percentage (percentage of college threes that were assisted)
College dunks made (surprising, but was consistently statistically significant, possibly a representation of a player’s liking of jump shots vs. points near the rim)
College decimal min % (percentage of team’s minutes played while in college)
Only seasons with at least 20% of a team’s total minutes played were counted (i.e. 8 minutes per game and playing every game of the season would qualify). The full results can be seen here (sorted by rank, sorted by height, sorted by age,). The list includes every player on the top 100 draft boards of ESPN and nbadraft.net (I might have missed someone though!) Some Thoughts on The Results Top 5 Most Underrated Shooters Markus Howard (47.58%) Howard is not just number 1 in the rankings, but is significantly ahead of everyone else. Howard has an historic shooting profile, especially for someone so young (he is a full year or more younger than many of the other seniors in the draft). While his size will certainly be an issue in the NBA, Howard is one of the most sure bet shooters in draft history. Justinian Jessup (43.85%) In the search for the next Duncan Robinson, Jessup might be the most appealing of any 2020 option. Jessup is 6-7 and can shoot the lights out of the ball. He could be the type of player to slip on draft night but make his name as an undrafted role player in the years to come. Desmond Bane (41.52%) 3 and D is one of the most common phrases that you will hear in NBA team building, and Bane is arguably the best mix of the two in the draft. He combines size and defensive versatility with a fantastic shooting profile that could allow him to become an elite NBA role player. Killian Tillie (40.96%) Tillie has struggled with injuries over the past few years, but he could be the best bet to find a stretch 4 in this draft. Not only can he shoot, but Tillie also moves very well for his size and has defensive potential in the NBA. Patrick Williams (34.62%) While 34.62% might not seem that high, it’s number 1 among all freshman in this model. Williams may not shoot that well in his first few years in the league, but there are a lot of indicators that his shot will develop eventually, which pairs well with his small ball 4 skillset. Williams’s ability to switch onto multiple positions is especially valuable in the modern NBA. Top 5 Most Overrated Shooters Saddiq Bey (34.17%) Bey is thought of by many to be an elite shooting prospect, but the model isn’t that high on his shooting potential. Personally, Williams and Bane seem like much better bets to be 3 and D role players at the next level. Devon Dotson (32.63%) While Dotson starred for Kansas last year, he struggled to shoot consistently throughout his time at Kansas. He definitely has the skillset to run an NBA offense, but will he be able to stay in an NBA rotation if his shooting doesn’t pan out? Anthony Edwards (29.91%) Edwards is considered to be one of the top candidates for the first pick in this year’s draft, largely due to his top tier athleticism. However, his three point projection is very concerning considering his love of off-the-dribble jump shots. Edwards has bust potential unless he starts replacing some of these contested jump shots with drives to the rim. Obi Toppin (28.21%) Toppin stretched it out to the three point line during his time in college, but the model is not high at all on his chances of continuing that in the NBA. A big concern is that Toppin is already 22 despite only playing 2 years in college and therefore seems unlikely to improve his shot all that much. He might end up putting up stats in the NBA due to a lot of shots near the rim, but a PF without a shot or much defensive versatility is not a great fit in the modern NBA. Isaac Okoro (27.26%) Okoro is known for his defense and ball handling, so this projection shouldn’t be a surprise to many. Still though, his projection as one of the worst shooters in the draft is definitely a concern for his NBA prospects. At least he is young and has a long time to improve his skillset. To be fully transparent, one of the biggest limitations of this model is my limited knowledge as a college Economics major. Much of the statistical knowledge behind this project was learned through the internet, and I do not profess to be an expert on the methods of Bayesian statistics or machine learning data transformations that were used. One of the most noticeable problems with this model is that it outputs a predicted career three point percentage rather than a player’s peak three point percentage. For this reason, a lot of the younger players in the model may seem underrated. 19 or 20 year old players very rarely shoot well in their early years in the NBA. Therefore, poor percentages in the early years of players who enter the NBA at a young age cause their career percentages to suffer. This led to players such as Tyrell Terry or Nico Mannion having quite muted NBA projections. That’s why looking at their projection along with age or year in college for context is probably the best way to view this data. The model also does not account well for shot difficulty. If a player’s shot difficulty changes drastically from college to the NBA, then their three point percentage projection will likely be off. Basically, the model should be taken as a less of a literal projection of a player’s NBA three point percentage, and more of a ranking of shooting indicators relative to a player’s age. Comment if you want to see the model’s projection for a prospect who is not on the list! I’ll try to reply as quickly as I can run their stats through. TLDR: I made a model using college stats to project NBA three point shooting. The results are here!
Recently there was a post in the Grizzlies subreddit asking if anyone was concerned with Jaren Jackson Jr. As a Jare Bear (yeah, I'm sticking with it) stan, I vented my rage and ample quarantine time into researching and writing this manifesto. Enjoy my ramblings. Jaren Jackson Jr. A young, ‘unicorn’ big man who’s floor stretching ability and defensive potential combine to make him one of the more tantalizing prospects in the NBA. Though a bit overshadowed by his electric teammate, Ja Morant, and his draft class contemporaries Luka Doncic, and Trae Young, I personally find him to be one of the most, if not THE most intriguing young player in the league. Having just turned 21, Jaren only has the briefest of exposures to the NBA. His unique skill set flashes the potential of a long, great career, a path that he was set on from an early age. Pre NBA Life Son of a former NBA Champion shooting guard, a young Jaren spent his early basketball life learning how to play like a guard; shooting from the perimeter and handling the ball, things that Sr had experience leveraging into a successful NBA career. This skill set combined with a late growth spurt in high school from 6’5 to 6’10 quickly turned Jaren into a top 10 national prospect. Leading his team to 2 Indiana state tournament wins led him to continuing his career as a 17 year old freshman at Michigan State. Playing with an upperclassmen laden front court meant Jaren didn’t get starter level minutes in college, but he made the most of his 22 minutes per game putting up an impressively efficient 11 points on 65% True Shooting, making a little over 1 three a game at nearly 40% from 3, and adding 6 rebounds and an absurd 3 blocks on top of that. It wasn’t all perfect though, as another factor of his limited minutes was his issues with fouling, something that has followed him into his current NBA career. Coming to the Grizzlies After a depressing season lost to injury in 2017-18, the Grizzlies silver lining was the opportunity to draft in the top 5 of a draft class that might go down as one of the greatest in NBA history when all is said and done. Looking to reload for one last run, the Grizzlies took a bit of a bet on Jaren’s defensive upside and potential floor stretching ability, something they felt would pair nicely alongside Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. There was some grumbling among Grizz fans at going with what appeared to be a higher risk player that had rumors of not wanting to work out with Memphis. Jaren debuted in a Grizzlies jersey against the Hawks in a Summer League game where in just 23 minutes he put up 29 points. He made more 3’s in a single game than any player in a Grizzly uniform since Mike Miller in the 2007/08 season. As a fanbase desperate for a shooting, Jackson became an overnight sensation. The optimism was a bit premature, and things would again not go the Grizzlies way in the regular season. After a less than promising start to the season, ownership felt it was finally time to move on from the last traces of the ‘Grit and Grind’ Grizzlies that had dominated Memphis sports culture for nearly a decade. Jaren made the most of his time under Mike and Marc until around the all star break, when Gasol left for the Raptors and Jaren went down with an injury that held him out for the remainder of the season. Prior to his injury, Jaren had established himself as a promising young talent that blended a good sense on defense, with an offense that did indeed include 3 point shooting potential. Due to youth, inexperience, and continued foul trouble woes from his college days, Jaren averaged just 26.1 minutes per game despite starting in 56 of the 58 games played that year. Similar to his freshman college experience, Jaren made good use of his rather limited play time to contribute efficiently on both ends of the floor, posting nearly 14 points on 59.1% TS, while adding around 5 rebounds, an assist, a steal, and a block and half per game. He flashed pretty much everything that was hoped at the time of the draft; a solid, mobile front court defender, with the ability to chip in a made 3 a game. He was a member of the rookie first team, the rising stars challenge, and outside of a disappointing final team record, had a rather successful rookie season. Grizz Next Gen Everything changed when the 2019 offseason attacked. One draft lottery miracle, one 30 year old first time GM, one trade of a decade long franchise cornerstone, and one 36 year old first time head coach later, though Jaren would still be the youngest player on his team coming into the 2019-20 season, quite literally everything else about his situation had changed. At just 20 years old Jaren was the second longest tenured member of the Grizzlies roster, behind Grizzlies 2018 2nd round draft pick Dillon Brooks who missed the majority of Jaren’s rookie season with an early season ending injury. In a flurry of free agency moves and draft signings, the Grizzlies entered the 2019-20 season with 3rd youngest roster in the league, and optimistically curious fans that were interested to see whether or not their new star point guard was the real deal, and if Ja and Jaren together could be the next great chapter in Memphis basketball. It took just 3 games for Ja Morant to make his mark on the league, Putting up 30 points and 9 assists with the buzzer beating block on Kyrie and the overtime buzzer beating assist to Jae Crowder for his first ever NBA win. Over the course of the season Ja continued to prove himself as the leader of a young Grizzlies team, and surprised the league by almost bringing them to the playoffs in just his rookie season. Though incredibly talented and able to drag the Grizzlies to some wins single handedly, Ja alone was not enough to get the Grizzlies into the first round after Jaren suffered an injury early on in the bubble. This isn’t a knock against Ja of course, but it does lead one to ask what exactly Jaren brings to the table as a 2nd option next to Ja and what the future might hold for them together as teammates. Jaren's 2nd Season Unlike his rookie teammate, Jaren’s 2019-20 season was fairly under the radar. As a small market that was a bubble playoff team, it's understandable that not a ton of media time got spent covering the Grizzlies, and if it was it was usually focused on Ja’s incredible highlights. As a result, not many outside of the Grizzlies fan base are aware of just how unique his recent season was, or how it compares to some players you might not have considered. Jaren Jackson Jr. didn’t just have a good season shooting the 3 ball compared to other bigs, he had a good season compared to ALL 3 point shooters in the league, and did it at a younger age than anyone in NBA history when looking at both his volume and efficiency. This past season at just 20 years old, Jaren Jackson Jr. scored 17.4 points on 59.3% true shooting, to go along with 4.6 boards, 1.4 assists, 0.7 steals, and 1.6 blocks in 28.5 minutes per game. Despite it being his second season in the league, he is still the youngest player in NBA history to play at least 1000 minutes in a season and score at least 17 points per game on 59% true shooting or better. This is largely a result of the extreme shift his offense has seen since his rookie season. In Jaren’s rookie season, his shot selection was fairly typical of a modern big that will step out to the three point line on occasion. For the season he took roughly 75% of his shots from 2, and 25% of his shots from 3. Breaking down his 2 point field goals further, he took around a third of his total shots right at the rim, and a third of his shots in the rest of the paint, with only 10% of his shots coming from the midrange. Things changed drastically for JJJ’s offense in 2019. A new analytically minded front office and a young head coach willing to try new things looked at Jaren’s shot chart from his rookie year, and trimmed all the fat. They saw a player with legitimate volume 3 point shooting and decided to run with it. Going from a roughly 75/25 split in the previous season, in 2019-20 the breakdown was almost even split, with 368 of his 753 shot attempts coming from behind the 3 point line. Overall, Jaren took a little less than a quarter of his shots within 3 feet of the basket, a similar amount from 3 to 10 feet, just 4% of his shots in the midrange, and everything else from 3. From 0.9 made 3’s on 2.4 attempts his rookie season (35.9%), his volume shot up to 2.5 made 3’s on 6.5 attempts his 2nd year (39.4%). As with his overall scoring and efficiency, Jaren is record setting in his youth combined with his 3 point shooting and efficiency. Only 2 players in NBA history have averaged 2.5 made 3’s a game at 20 years old or younger. Luka Doncic this same season scored 2.8 3’s on 8.9 attempts per game. Like fellow draft class player Trae Young, he has taken the ‘James Harden’ approach to 3 point shooting where instead of having elite efficiency, he instead ‘brute forces’ 3 point attempts, taking them often in isolation off of dribble moves and from extreme range, resulting in him only shooting 31.6% from 3. Though making a slightly lower, 2.5 3’s a game, Jaren’s 39.4% efficiency dwarfs Luka’s. Only 6 players 20 years old or younger have made at least 100 3’s in a season at 39% or better: Jayson Tatum, Mike Miller, Bradley Beal, Kyrie Irving, Collin Sexton, and Jaren Jackson Jr. who leads the group in 3 point attempts per game. You would think that for a 7 ft power forward to shoot with that kind of efficiency they would need to be mostly catch and shoot open 3’s, or maybe mostly at the shorter corner spots, but no, like his elite 3 point shooting guard and small forward contemporaries, Jaren is simply good at shooting in a variety of ways under all sorts of pressure. Spot ups, off the dribble, from all spots around the arc, from absurd range, in isolation, heavily contested, there isn’t a shot that Jaren is afraid of taking. Jaren has put up great efficiency shooting in all sorts of scenarios this past season. His greatest strength and one he utilizes often is his ability to shoot coming around screens. A little over half his 3 point makes (74/145) involved Jaren moving prior to the shot, in the form of coming off or around screens, trailing in the half court, dribble moves in isolation, or step backs. He can get his feet set and has a lightning quick release, so even though the release is low he is incredibly effective at getting his shot off. Simply put, it is arguable Jaren Jackson Jr. has been better at 3 point shooting at a younger age than any other player in NBA history. I don’t think he’ll ever attempt 15 3’s a game like Steph Curry, just that through this point of his career Jaren has displayed a talent never before seen in the history of the league from someone so young. And that’s without considering the fact he is nearly 7 feet tall barefoot. This elite shooting has defenses scrambling when it comes to guarding Jaren. He utilizes the threat of his elite shooting to blow by overreaching defenders, taking advantage of his rare height and athleticism combination to get past defenders and get good shots in the paint or free throws from a defender that collapses too late. His age does tend to show here, and he will sometimes seem to hesitate or make the wrong move and end up in no man’s land a bit too far from the basket where his efficiency drops significantly. Shooting roughly a quarter of his shots from within 3 feet, he connects on a highly efficient 70.8% of his shots. But outside that in the 3-10 ft. range, another area where he shoots from about 25% of the time, his efficiency plummets to 40.6%. Though this does bring his overall 2 point field goal percentage down to 54%, the silver lining is that it shows that there’s room for growth, and that Jaren can potentially improve his already incredible efficiency just through natural growth and experience. If he can avoid foul trouble and increase both his minutes and usage, Jaren may actually have the potential to be an elite volume scoring player that can lead a playoff team in points. I feel this idea was mostly strongly supported by Jaren’s brief run in the bubble, where in all 3 games he showed notable growth over the player he was 4 months prior at the start of Covid. With 8 games and playoff aspirations on the line, the Grizzlies shifted into a more playoff style rotation, and with Jaren’s fouling toned down a little bit he managed to average 37 minutes per game compared to his sub 30 minute average for the season. In those 37 minutes Jaren saw a bump in both his attempts and his efficiency, upping his shot attempts from 13.2 to 17.3. Continuing to optimize his offense, the majority of his additional 4.1 field goal attempts went to his 3 point shooting, where he upped his attempts from 6.5 to 9.3 per game, a rate that would tie him with Devonte Graham at 7th most 3 pointers attempted per game this season. This is obviously a small sample size, and his 3 point efficiency did drop to 35.7% over the 3 games, but it was also a ‘proof of concept:’ Jaren’s increased 3 point attempts pulled defenders even further out of the paint than they might have ventured during the season, which a slightly bigger and more experienced Jaren Jackson Jr took advantage of with great results. Though only increasing his 2 point field goal attempts from 6.8 to 8.0 per game in an additional 8.5 minutes of play time, his improved ability and easier time getting to the rim meant that his efficiency jumped from just 54% to 62.5%, increasing his points per game by 2.6 with just 1.2 more shot attempts. Combine that fact with unprepared defenses sending Jaren to the line more than twice as often (3.3 FTA season average vs. 6.7 FTA bubble average), over the 3 games Jaren averaged 25.3 points on 62.5% true shooting. Jaren’s Potential Unfortunately a small meniscus tear took him down before we got the chance to see if the trend would continue. But with the timetable for his return to health likely lining up with the start of next season in December, we may finally get to see if Bubble Jaren’s offense is the real deal or not. Coach Taylor Jenkins is from the BudenholzePopovich coaching tree, and as a result tends to keep his rotations deep and the minutes spread, so it’s unlikely Jaren will see 37 minutes a game in the regular season. But if he can limit some of his fouling issues and increase his play time up to about 33 minutes, hopefully he could split the difference a bit and increase his overall volume and free throw attempts, improve his 2 point percentage, without such a large drop in his 3 point percentage. Predicting the future of a player is hard, especially a player who’s statistical accomplishments are so unprecedented. A large part of orchestrating an NBA offense is deciding how many shots each player on the floor is going to get. Coaches want the most efficient players to get the most shots, and as a result usually give a majority of the shots to older more established players that have more efficient offensive games. Of all 529 NBA players in the 2019-20 season, only 70 were able to get at least 10 shots a game on above 55% true shooting average while playing half at least 41 games. This group of 70 essentially makes up every key player in the NBA. If you normally follow 1 specific team for a majority of the season, these might be all the players from other teams you could name off the top of your head. As you would imagine, the majority of these players are in their ‘prime’ years, with about 70% of them between the ages of 23 and 30. A player being 20 or younger in this category is rare, with their only being 3 such players this season: Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, and Jaren Jackson Jr. In fact, a player 20 years old or younger has met these benchmarks only 24 times since the NBA added the 3 point line. (20 Year Old Key Player List by fga/poss)
Player
FGA per 100 Poss.
Age
MPG
FGA
FTA
TS%
3PA
3P%
Luka Doncic
29.6
20
33.6
20.6
9.2
58.5
8.9
31.6
Kyrie Irving
27.2
20
34.7
18.1
4.9
55.3
4.7
39.1
LeBron James
26.6
20
42.4
21.1
8.0
55.4
3.9
35.1
Kyrie Irving
25.2
19
30.5
14.6
3.8
56.6
3.6
39.9
Kevin Durant
24.7
20
39.0
18.8
7.1
57.7
3.1
42.2
Anthony Davis
22.2
20
35.2
15.0
6.6
58.2
0.1
22.2
Karl-Anthony Towns
22.1
20
32.0
14.1
3.4
59.0
1.1
34.1
Jaren Jackson Jr.
21.7
20
28.5
13.2
3.3
59.3
6.5
39.4
Shaquille O'Neal
21.2
20
37.9
16.1
8.9
58.4
0.0
0.0
Ja Morant
21.1
20
31.0
14.0
4.6
55.6
2.7
33.5
Marvin Bagley
21.0
19
25.3
11.4
4.2
56.2
1.5
31.3
Lauri Markkanen
20.8
20
29.7
12.7
2.4
55.2
5.9
36.2
Chris Webber
20.6
20
32.1
13.6
4.7
55.9
0.2
0.0
Jamal Murray
20.5
20
31.7
13.1
3.1
57.6
5.4
37.8
Tyler Herro
20.4
20
27.4
11.5
1.8
55.0
5.4
38.9
Anthony Davis
19.9
19
28.8
10.6
3.5
55.9
0.1
0.0
Jaren Jackson Jr.
19.3
19
26.1
10.2
3.4
59.1
2.4
35.9
Deandre Ayton
19.0
20
30.7
12.3
2.7
60.8
0.1
0.0
Brook Lopez
18.0
20
30.5
10.3
2.6
56.8
0.0
0.0
Eric Gordon
17.5
20
34.3
11.6
4.5
59.3
4.3
38.9
Jayson Tatum
17.1
19
30.5
10.4
3.2
58.6
3.0
43.4
Myles Turner
17.1
20
31.4
10.7
3.7
58.5
1.4
34.8
Dwight Howard
15.9
20
36.8
10.7
7.3
56.5
0.0
0.0
Magic Johnson
15.7
20
36.3
12.3
6.0
60.2
0.4
22.6
Compared to the others on this list, Jaren is just the 3rd to have his name appear twice, joining Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving as the only 2 players to be highly efficient ‘key’ offensive players in both their age 19 and age 20 seasons. Of the 24 seasons that fit the criteria, Jaren’s 2019-20 Season ranks 12th in points per game at 17.4, while being tied for 3rd overall in efficiency at 59.3% true shooting. His 6.5 3PA per game is 2nd overall, and his 39.4 3P% is 4th overall, while averaging 4th fewest minutes amongst players listed. For the purpose of predicting Jaren’s growth as an offensive player, these are essentially his peers. By looking at players that took a similar number of shot attempts per 100 possessions at his same age on a similar efficiency, we can see what type of increase in offensive load they saw going into their age 21 season. If we apply a similar increase to Jaren’s shot attempts while also increasing his minutes per game, we can get a rough idea of how many shots Jaren might take in an average game next season. The players shooting at a similar rate to Jaren saw roughly a 10% increase in both their shots per possession, and free throws per possession. If Jaren see’s similar growth to the other players around him on this list, and is able to increase his minutes to about 33 per game by improving his conditioning and reducing his fouls, he should be able to get up to around 17 field goal attempts per game next year, and 4.2 free throw attempts. If like this season he has about a 50/50 split between his 2 point and 3 point attempts, and if he shoots at his career averages from each area on the floor and free throws, that would have him scoring 22.3 points per game on 59.2% true shooting. If he were to reach those marks he would likely be in elite company, with only 10 players this past season scoring at least 22 points on 59% true shooting or better while playing in a majority of games.
Player
Age
MPG
PPG
TS%
Damian Lillard
29
37.5
30.0
62.7
James Harden
30
36.5
34.3
62.6
Devin Booker
23
35.9
26.6
61.8
Trae Young
21
35.3
29.6
59.5
Anthony Davis
26
34.4
26.1
61.0
DeMar DeRozan
30
34.1
22.1
60.3
Karl-Anthony Towns
24
33.9
26.5
64.2
Kyrie Irving
27
32.9
27.4
59.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo
25
30.4
29.5
61.3
Joel Embiid
25
29.5
23.0
59.0
Though I feel my methodology is sound, it still feels like it might be an optimistic expectation when compared to history. Only 6 players have ever scored so much, so efficiently, over the course of a season at the age of 21. Trae Young this past season, Karl Anthony Towns in 16-17, Anthony Davis in 14-15, Kevin Durant in 08-09, Shaq in 93-94, and rookie Michael Jordan. If Jaren does manage to reach this list next season, it may all but confirm his potential to become one of the most offensively dominant players in NBA history. However, all 6 of those players have completely different styles of offense, so it’s a bit hard to determine if Jaren’s offense has the same kind of potential. It's also far removed from the expectations he had coming into the league, when he was mostly valued for his defense and was viewed as having a Chris Bosh type offense. So to try and find players with play styles similar to Jaren’s, I narrowed some of the search filters on to players above 6’10, and lowered the efficiency benchmark to just 50% TS to hopefully get as many players in league history that have played like Jaren, even if they weren’t as efficient at it due to old offenses not driven by analytics. I know volume 3 point shooting is a recent trend, especially for big men in particular, so I also set a filter for players that attempted at least 1 3 a game, on at least 35.8% (current league average) 3 point shooting. They might not shoot as many 3’s as Jaren, but I assumed traditional NBA offenses would have their bigs shooting more mid range shots, and if they at least attempted a 3 every game it would imply they shoot a significant number of shots close to the 3 point line.
Player
Age
MPG
PPG
FGA
TS%
3PA
3P%
Jaren Jackson Jr.
19
26.1
13.8
10.2
59.1
2.4
35.9
Jaren Jackson Jr.
20
28.5
17.4
13.2
59.3
6.5
39.4
Lauri Markkanen
20
29.7
15.2
12.7
55.2
5.9
36.2
Lamar Odom
20
36.4
16.6
13.5
52.1
2.2
36.0
Kevin Durant
20
39.0
25.3
18.8
57.7
3.1
42.2
Lauri Markkanen
21
32.3
18.7
15.3
55.3
6.4
36.1
Danilo Gallinari
21
33.9
15.1
11.4
57.5
6.0
38.1
Dirk Nowitzki
21
35.8
17.5
13.6
56.4
3.7
37.9
Karl-Anthony Towns
21
37.0
25.1
18.0
61.8
3.4
36.7
Dario Saric
21
29.6
14.6
11.4
58.2
5.1
39.3
A fairly interesting mix of players, with one you might not have expected in Lamar Odom, a few solid modern forward bigs in Saric, Gallinari, and Markkanen, a modern center that has had a great start to his career in Towns, and some all time great forwards in Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Durant. A positive sign, Jaren is notably the youngest player on this list (tied with Durant at 20 as well as the only player to do it at age 19 his rookie year), and though in the lower middle of the pack in terms of field goal attempts per game (6th), he is 2nd in TS% at 59.3%, 2nd in 3P% at 39.4% (Kevin Durant had his career best mark his 2nd year), and 1st in 3PA/G at 6.5, all while playing the fewest minutes per game. A side note here. I know Jaren’s rebounding is a fairly big concern of a lot of fans. If you look at all of these players who Jaren has a lot in common with, you will notice that rebounding rate appears pretty consistent depending on which position the player gets most of their minutes at. Dirk, Danillo, Dario, Durant, and Jaren all hover around a 10% total rebound rate through their first couple seasons. Embiid and KAT who both play center full time are up near 20%. Dirk improved his total rebound rate in the 3rd year of his career when he started playing more minutes at center and had filled out a bit more, and I expect Jaren to do the same. Overall, when compared to players that match him in play style and when comparing him to players that match him in efficiency, Jaren shines amongst his peers at a very young age. Super Saiyin Jaren Jackson Jr. aka SSJJJMVP For fun, I wanted to try and imagine what Jaren might look like at his peak. His numbers seem to line up well with Kevin Durant and Dirk Nowitzki, who also happen to be 2 players with a ton of playoff runs to pick from, as well as plenty of time playing next to elite point guards. In 2011 Dirk proved doubters wrong by leading the Mavericks to a championship, paving the way with his 27.7 points on 18.9 shots and 8.9 free throw attempts for an incredibly efficient (relative to league play) 60.9% TS in the playoffs. In 2017, Kevin Durant made the most of his super team upgrade by scoring 28.5 points on just 17.9 shots and 6.9 free throw attempts, an absolutely absurd 68.3% TS, one of the 6 most efficient volume scoring playoff runs of all time, and the only player of those 6 to play past the first round. So that’s about 18.5 shots and 7.9 free throws a game for future Prime Jaren to work with, assuming he takes a similar offensive load. If Jaren does grow into the same type of elite volume shooter, with his current shooting breakdown and a league that’s constantly trying to optimize, at this point in his career Jaren might still be shooting a little over half his attempts from 3, while an increase in size and skill means he gets to the rim on 30% of his attempts, while the remaining 20% come from the rest of the paint. If he plays some of the best basketball of his career like other all time greats in their best runs, maybe he’s hitting 75% on his shots at the rim, 50% in the rest of the paint, and 42% from 3, with 80% free throw shooting. That volume, shot breakdown, and volume would result in Jaren scoring exactly 30 points a game on a scorching 68.3% TS, while potentially being the anchor small ball center of one of the top defenses in the league. Of course, this is by far the most optimistic outlook on Jaren’s future in the league. Plenty of players fail to meet expectations they set early on, and many more get injured and never get the opportunity to even try. Some players get stuck in less than ideal situations with bad teammates or coaches. There’s so much that could go wrong, that statistically it’s very likely Jaren doesn’t reach these lofty heights. But through this point in his career, I would argue that the league has never seen a player quite like Jaren, and there’s never been one set up quite as well going forward. An equally gifted teammate who’s playstyle and skill will maximize Jaren’s potential, a data driven management that will work to put Jaren in the best situations possible on the court, and all the time, athleticism, opportunity and skill in the world needed to be a star in the league... maybe even an MVP. If you read all of that, please comment below if you want to discuss further or want to ask about any of the math/research I did. Let's go Grizzlies!
Bet On The NBA. If you intend to bet on NBA games, it’s worthwhile knowing a little about the sport itself. Remember, when you bet on NBA games, be sure to use our free NBA betting tips! Basketball is the most modern major sport, having only been invented in 1891. Those are my 4 favorite NBA player props to bet on January 11th. Here’s to hoping we bank together! Check us out on Social Media Below or click the link here: Twitter Or Instagram Also, check out our NBA Award Predictions made before the year started to see how we are doing!. NBA Award Predictions: MVP, Rookie of the Year… Here are a few NBA player prop predictions to consider Thursday. Thursday’s NBA player prop bet predictions Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:10 p.m. ET. Indiana Pacers PG Malcolm Brogdon OVER 20.5 points (-115) CBSSports.com's NBA expert picks provides daily picks against the spread and over/under for each game during the season from our resident picks guru. Free NBA Picks, Tips, and Expert Predictions | Main NBA Betting Page | Be on the lookout for free NBA expert picks from The TwinSpires Edge throughout the season. Find analysis on player performances, breakdowns of key matchups, the latest injury news, and the competitive insights you need to make intelligent wagers. Free NBA Picks Against The Spread and Expert NBA Predictions for Today’s Games. The NBA season is an 82-game grind but our experts analyze every game to help you make the best NBA bets daily. Player matchups, rotations, injuries, travel schedules and referees, and many other factors are considered when finding the best daily NBA betting NBA Player Props January 13th edition! This is my daily article breaking down the 4 best player props to bet each and every night of the NBA season. I’ll keep track of my record as the season progresses. Please check us out on Twitter @CallingOurShot for recaps and live updates of our NBA Player Props January 13th edition. Predictions Methodology. The projections for all the NBA games that we provide above are at “Level 3” (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the winner and score of the game. It’s possible more news breaks, especially since the Wizards canceled practice yesterday. Just keep an eye on all of these situations, and even if games do play, be aware of how COVID-19 news may impact how you’ll want to bet. With that, let’s dive into Wednesday’s NBA betting slate and break down my predictions and top picks. And because numbers never lie, NBA computer predictions are being relied upon more so now than ever compared to the know-it-all handicappers of the basketball betting world. NBA Picks ATS. Wagering on winning NBA picks against the spread isn’t always an easy task when betting on the National Basketball Association.
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