NFL Futures on MVP and the Super Bowl | Bovada

I listen two major NFL podcasts with media members (Pick Six and Around The NFL) and watch NFL Network pretty religiously. It was amazing how many media members around the NFL wanted Rivers to win the Superbowl last season because they think he deserves it. The NFL media from around the various outlets are the ones who vote for who wins MVP. Now that the Bolts had a good season, they are on the radar and I can see them picking Rivers for MVP, finally, for the first time in his career if we have another good season.
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This brings me to Rivers for MVP odds. Las Vegas has him at 14-1 last time I checked, but Bovada has him at 20-1 odds right now! I don't know about the rest of you but I am going to throw down $100 on him (I do a lot of football gambling on Bovada since I don't go to Las Vegas much). I am looking at it this way, if I lose, it is just $100 from months ago. If I win, that is a pretty good. I'll probably end up taking a trip to Disney World with the family and use that money to help pay for it.
Just wanted to throw you guys the idea. I will not use the refer a friend link because I am not doing this for personal gain. I just want to let my Bolt fam know whats up. Also I looked at the rules and I did not see anything about gambling.

I would not recommend sports gambling unless you happen to have a load of disposal income. Hell, even then, I wouldn't recommend sports gambling. Unless you have some advanced analytical system or a Marty McFly sportsbook, it's a sucker's game and a surefire way to lose money over the long run.
THAT SAID, it's still fun to talk about. And once and a while, try to take a chance on some good value picks. I'm going to suggest a few of those here, although be warned that a) gambling is dumb, b) I am dumb. But hey here are my two cents anyway.

BEST LONGSHOT PROP BETS

Matthew Stafford: most passing yards, +1500 (15:1)
I'm taking these odds from the two most popular online sportsbook. On sportsbook.ag, Stafford was +1500 (15:1). On bovada, he's +1200 (12:1).
In either case, there's value there. The Detroit Lions are going to try to run the ball more often, but time will tell if that will actually work. And if it doesn't, Matt Stafford should be zipping passes all season long. New coach Matt Patricia comes from a New England franchise that had a lot of success with the volume passing game, so I don't think he'll have any qualms about letting Stafford rip as many times as necessary.
Last season, Stafford had 4446 passing yards, 3rd most in the NFL (and only 121 behind leader Tom Brady.) And for Stafford, that was no fluke. Since 2011, he's averaged 4562 passing yards per season. If he can simply hit that average, he'll be right in the mix for the most passing yards. There's no reason to think Stafford will struggle this year in particular; the Lions' receiving corps is one of the more underrated units in the league.
If you want to be even BOLDER, you can look at Stafford at for MVP (40:1 on both sites.) I don't project Detroit into the playoffs myself, but if you do, Stafford may parlay that into MVP buzz.
Saquon Barkley: most rushing yards, +1400 (14:1)
Note: this is only +1000 on bovada, at which point I may pass. But the 14:1 on sportsbook feels like solid value.
To me, Saquon Barkley is the best RB prospect of the 2000s. Now, does that mean he's going to be a surefire stud in the NFL? No, not at all. Does that mean he's going to be good as a rookie? Not necessarily. There are several factors working against him on that front. He's been struggling with a hamstring injury in the preseason. His offensive line is a "work in progress" (to be kind.) His coach Pat Shurmur is more of a passing game guru than running guru (his Vikings tended to struggle there.)
But when you're talking about odds like this, all you want is a credible chance. And I believe Barkley gives you that. He's going to be a workhorse with every opportunity to succeed. If Eli Manning and the Giants defense continue to struggle, perhaps Shurmur leans more heavily on the running game to help control the clock. Best of all, the "bar" isn't enormously high here. Last season, Kareem Hunt led the league with 1327 rushing yards. Barkley can theoretically match or exceed that mark.
To me, the biggest threat to win this crown would be Ezekiel Elliott, whom may be dinged slightly by the loss of his center Travis Frederick. There's an opening here for someone like Barkley to burst through the gates.
Amari Cooper: most receiving yards, +4000 (40:1)
Okay you want to get crazy? Let's get nuts. Cooper is 40:1 on both sites, well down the list of top contenders.
And it's easy to understand why he's being overlooked. Cooper was AWFUL last season. He registered a pathetic 48 receptions and 680 yards, good for # 51 in the league.
So how can # 51 rise to # 1? Opportunity. To win the "most receiving yards" crown, you need targets. Lots of targets. In Oakland, Cooper should be getting that. Jon Gruden is going to make Cooper the focal point of the passing game in a major way. Cooper averaged 131 targets in 2015-16, and may improve on those marks with Michael Crabtree out of the picture. I can easily see him being peppered with 150-160, even if it means forcefeeding him the ball. If he hits that 160 mark, he'd gain about 1300 yards based on his career yards/target average.
Unlike the running back position, the "bar" is going to be high at receiver. If they're healthy, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham will be flirting with the 1500 mark. But hey, at 40:1, you're not looking for a surefire bet. You're buying a lottery ticket.
Christian Kirk (WR-ARI), offensive rookie of the year: +10,000 (100:1)
This is only +5500 (55:1) on bovada, but I'd still look at this either way. Kirk is the 20th highest player on the board, and good value at that spot.
Obviously, Saquon Barkley is the heavy favorite for this award. Hell, he may be the leading rusher in the NFL (as discussed.) But if Barkley does not live up to the/my hype, then there may be an opening here. Fellow top backs (Rashaad Penny, Ronald Jones, Sony Michel, Nick Chubb) have not secured a major role for their teams yet. Royce Freeman (DEN) is a major threat, but it's not like Denver is a powerhouse of an offense themselves.
In terms of quarterbacks, I don't see any of this particular class excelling out of the gates. With the exception of Baker Mayfield (who's a backup), they're all young and in need of some refinement. They'll get the headlines, but probably not this trophy.
Enter Kirk as a potential sleeper. One of my favorite pet theories regards the predictive quality of Immediate Impact. In college, it's very rare for a player to step right onto campus and make an impact as a true freshman (without a redshirt season first.) When they do, they often make a similar immediate impact in the NFL. Joey Bosa is a great example of this; the kid ripped it up for 7.5 sacks as a true freshman at Ohio State, and sure enough, looked ready from Day 1 in the NFL as well.
Receiver Christian Kirk had that same type of "immediate impact" at Texas A&M, leading the team with 1009 yards as a true freshman. Physically, he's not an overwhelming talent, but he's exceptionally polished and skilled for his age. Apparently he's been displaying that in Arizona already, which could translate into a major role. I wouldn't be shocked if he gets 800-900+ yards out of the gate.
Is he a likely rookie of the year? No. But hey, this is 100:1 we're talking about. All you want is a chance. And I believe he has that.
Derwin James: defensive rookie of the year, +1400 (14:1)
James is 14:1 on bovada, but only 10:1 on sportsbook. At 14:1, I'm looking hard at this bet.
Copy and paste what I wrote about "immediate impact" and apply it tenfold to Derwin James. As a true freshman at Florida State, he looked like a superstar, registering 91 total tackles, 4.5 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles from the safety position. An injury derailed his sophomore year, but he's now 2 years recovered from that and should be back to elite form. There aren’t many safeties like him. Ever. He's a 6'3" rocket launcher.
With the Chargers, Derwin James has every opportunity to shine. The Chargers may be a top 3 defense this year and a potential playoff force, keeping James in the spotlight. He can also be used in a variety of roles -- including as a pass rusher -- which should help bolster his stats.
Any "defensive rookie of the year" race is wide open because there are so many horses in the field, but James would be a top 3 candidate to me, at a very reasonable and discounted price here.
Von Miller: most sacks, +1800 (18:1)
Again, with a "long shot" bet, all you really want is a viable chance of success. Von Miller as the leading sack artist in the league? There's definitely a chance of that. He's recorded 10+ sacks in six of his seven years in the league, with the only exception in 2013 when he missed 7 games.
I wouldn't necessarily peg Miller as the favorite for this distinction (that would probably be Joey Bosa), but he offers the best value given these odds. Your hope here is that rookie DE Bradley Chubb takes some of the pressure off Miller, and allows him to rack up 14-15 sacks again. If the Denver Broncos offense plays a little better as a team, that should also help Miller's cause as well. Opponents didn't need to throw much on them last year -- registering just 491 passing attempts. If that numbers climbs back up to 520-530, then Miller will have more bites at the apple.

I haven't seen a thread yet, but bovada/bodog released all of their season long player props. (there are a lot)
https://sports.bodog.eu/football/nfl-season-player-props
so far I have:

• Rosliberger u4300 passing yards -115 to win 1u:

That's 269 yards/game if he plays all 16 games. He is glass these days and I expect him to go down sometime during the season. Even if he is healthy there is a big difference between road berger and home berger

• Doug Baldwin u1000 receiving yards; -115 to win 1u

SEA has the worst o-line in the league, which wont give wilson a ton of time in the pocket. A lot of baldwin's yards are from scrambles and coupled with the fact that SEA doesn't throw that often, i don't mind this bet

• "How many different starters will the New York Jets have in the 2017 Regular Season" over 2; +130 for 2u

This bet is worded ridiculously bad. Doesn't say quarterback anywhere there, which i assume is what is means, but you may be able to argue if you ever lose it. With that said, even if it were QB starters only, i would still take the over. Mccown played week 4 of preseason and already got banged up. he either goes down in the season, or they tank so hard they give petty some reps for experience. If the jets start 0-6 which they likely will, they would have to switch something up

• Ajayi u1350 rushing yards; -115 to win 1u

These next two bets go hand in hand. Miamia has the #26 ranked offensive lines overall, and i think worse in run blocking. yes the line is similar to last year, and ajayi had a breakout year last year. but mostly because of the 3 games over 200 rushing yards. ajayi gets most of his yardarg from chunk yardage. 23% of AJayis rushing yards was from just 7 different runs and 57% of Ajayi's runs were less than 3 yards. Last year gase didn't trust Tannehill so ran Ajayi all game even when they were losing. with Cutler in place hopefully cutler has more say in the play calling and doesn't rely on the run too much.

• Devante Parker o900 receiving yards -115 to win 2u

Parker looks like he will have a breakout season and cutlet loves Parker, says hes a faster alshon. with landry grabbing the attention of most CB1s, and even potentially going to jail and all the points above re: Ajayi. if the fins get into 2nd and 3rd and long, look for cutler to go to his fav target.
I like the strategy of finding players that are likely to get injured and take the under especially if it is high already. Ie maybe gronk under, reed under.
added

• rodgers MVP: +800 for .5u

Good value on a very likely candidate.

• K Hunt Offensive rookie of the year: +1000 for .5u
  
• davin cook OROY: +809 for .5u
  

Both rookies starting rb in a run heavt offense. Either could easily go off

Bovada MVP odds according to OddShark.com has Stafford at +1000 after week 1. Tied with Derek Carr behind Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Stafford was +5000 and tied for 15th with many other players back in June.

Player	Team Record	Total TDs	Percent of Team's TDs	Total Yards	Percent of Team's Total Yards	Completion %	YPA	YPG	INTs	Passer Rating
Cam Newton	12-0	32 (2)	74.4%	3273 (12)	75.5%	58.3% (29)	7.5 (T11)	233.1 (27)	10 (T17)	93.0 (15)
Tom Brady	10-2	34 (1)	79.1%	3993 (1)	82.3%	63.7% (T14)	7.7 (6)	326.0 (2)	6 (T5)	102.8 (5)
Carson Palmer	10-2	30 (3)	66.7%	3714 (3)	73.8%	63.7% (T14)	8.8 (2)	307.8 (5)	9 (T12)	106.0 (3)

I wanted to put together a little table and open a thread to talk about the MVP Race and our MVP Camidate. Odds as of 12/2 at Bovada gave an edge to Tom Brady at -125, while Cam Newton stood at +110 and Carson Palmer at +1200. I’m sure these have already changed, but I cannot find an updated link.
Unsurprisingly, the top 3 candidates are the QBs from the top 3 offenses in the NFL this year. All teams seem destined to win their division, with the Panthers already accomplishing this, while 1st round BYEs seem likely, the Patriots are recently struggling and the Cardinals have a tough schedule to close out the season (MIN, @PHI, GB, SEA). With all this being said, if the Panthers accomplish a 16-0 season, then I believe any MVP debate is moot. Cam Newton is crowned "King of the NFL," let alone MVP.
The table I used is clearly not complete with all the data and statistics you would need to adequately compare these players, but I thought it painted a sufficient picture. All players are incredibly valuable to the team’s success, and integral to their offenses production. For instance, I used “total TDs” rather than strictly “passing TDs” because Cam is heavily used as a runner in the red zone, while Tom Brady is a 1 yard specialist. I used “total yards” similarly, Cam is a big time runner and often asked to convert 3rd downs by running while Tom Brady is sometimes asked to catch a pass. I included completion percentage because it’s a huge knock on Cam, yet neither Brady nor Palmer are setting records or even leading the NFL. I did include some strictly passing stats, after all these are QBs and this will be part of the debate. Please feel free to debate the merits of these statistics and data, I’m sure I’m overlooking some important ones – I personally feel the inclusion of “passer rating” is redundant. I also omitted some strictly running ones.
There is just no point in comparing Cam to Brady/Palmer in this context. Cam has 41 rushing 1st downs (T-5th in the NFL), which he is gaining on 38.0% of his rushes. Next closest QB is Russell Wilson with 25 1st downs, which he is gaining at a 29.1% clip. For team relevance, Jonathan Stewart has 38 rushing 1st downs with a 16.8% rate. It is interesting to note that Cam has led the league in Rushing 1st Downs as a Percentage every year he has been in the league, with this rate being his lowest. Simply put, Cam is just running more this year – he is on pace for 144 rushing attempts while his career high is 127, which is already the record for most attempts by a QB since 1950. But, it is important to note, that even including his rushing statistics, he still lags behind both Brady and Palmer in total yards and Brady in % of team’s yards.
Here are some questions that we will hear during this debate over the rest of year. Feel free to take a crack at some of them ….

• Does Brady get “extra credit” for having a depleted roster? Injuries to Gronkowski and Edelman are obvious, but he is also dealing with a paper mache OLine.
  
• Does the Panthers defense detract from what Cam is doing on offense in the sense of “value” to the team?
  
• If you cannot quantify certain qualities that these players bring to their teams, how do you compare them?
  
• Do non-football influences factor into the decision? (Goodell-Brady relationship, Cam Newton’s polarity, Arizona market)
  

These are the results for some of the odder prop bets offered at Bovada
-National Anthem over 1 minute 34 seconds
-Kelly Clarkson wore “Anything else”
-Kelly Clarkson Belly was not showing
-Kelly Clarkson did not forget or omit a word
-Madonna’s Hair was blonde
-Madonna did wear fishnets
-Madonna did wear a hat
-Madonna did not wear an NFL Shirt or Jersey
-Peyton Manning was shown on TV under 3.5 times
-Giselle Bundchen was shown on TV over 0.5 times
-Andrew Luck was not mentioned at all
-Jim Irsay was not mentioned at all
-David Tyree’s catch was not shown
-Mitt Romney was not shown
-Robert Kraft was shown over 3.5 times
-Tom Brady’s son was not shown at all so all wagers were refunded
-Gatorade shower was purple. Purple was not an option so all wagers were refunded
-MVP did not thank anyone

Verified? (This bot cannot verify AMAs just yet)
Date: 2014-09-04
Link to submission (Has self-text)

Questions	Answers
I saw a comment in /nfl yesterday which suggested that your MVP odds are based not only on the actual odds of the player winning, but on the amount of money that is being bet (which was their explanation for why a guy like Manziel even has odds in the first place.)	Part of the fun in posting odds like these across any sport is having to follow the opinion of crotchety sportswriters talk about why they may vote for a player because he "plays the game the right away". Goodness.
I'm an avid gambler and I always wanted to work in sports gambling- how did you get in your position?	I kind of fell into it. I had been wagering on sports from a very young age with medium levels of success. While I always thought that I just "got sports", having a mathematical background helped me quantify what I was seeing, and then eventually, what and how I was betting.
One stupid question (maybe) what are the restrictions on betting for you since you are an oddsmaker?	Because there isn't often a 'Help Wanted' sign when it comes to these positions, I'd recommend familiarizing yourself with the ins and outs of excel, programming and intense mathematics. Then go out and start crushing books. The best way to get noticed by sportsbooks is to go and take their money.
How do you determine odds for WWE events when it's a scripted event?	Admittedly I'm not the biggest WWE fan, but there's a lot of information in messageboards and podcasts about what storylines make the most sense and what fans reasonably expect to happen.
	Having said that...
	The Undertaker was a 1/20 favorite at Wrestlemania versus Brock Lesnar. Long story short, his reign of Wrestlemania supremacy came to an end and we suffered our worst single-event loss in the month of April of this year.
	Lesnar has the rare distinction of costing us a lot of money in both real and scripted fighting.
What (in your opinion) is the most interesting prop bet you've ever done on the site?	Wracking my brain and we've really run gamut here. Our Super Bowl props this past February had 500 different options surrounding national anthem length, gatorade color dumped on winning coach, Bruno Mars' first song...etc.
	Lately we've been experimenting more with in-game props. If a player is close to a significant in-game achievement, we've begun to offer odds on perfect games, no-hitters, hitting for the cycle. Anything that differentiates us from our competitors. The reception to these have been really positive.
Do you have any stories or examples of a time you've set a line and found yourself WAY off where other books (Vegas, online, anywhere) have put the number?	The Super Bowl is a great example here as while most games closed it as a PK (or SEA/DEN) small fave, we held with the Broncos as 3-pt favorites. I know this seemingly contradicts what I've said before about recreational money affecting the line, but the Super Bowl as a one-off event takes more than anything else we'll offer in a calendar year.
Did you stick to your number or move more in line with the consensus?	Because of the overwhelming action on a event like this, we were happy to have money on the Broncos at this price while conceding that those betting on Seattle likely had very valuable bets.
What was the largest bet you have ever taken?	In relation to the average bet size for the market, we took mid-five figures over-limit bet on Mitt Romney to win the last Presidential Election from one of our larger players. Political wagering was something that in previous years had seen average bet sizes of $10-$20 but with more science behind the process (ie. poll aggregation etc), we had much higher limits in 2010 than we had had in previous years.
	We were big Obama fans by election night.
What's the hardest sport to get right?	Of the main sports right now, I'd say NCAA-B was brutal last year, if only for totals. The new rules surrounding called fouls pushed scoring up ~20 pts per game early last season as games devolved into free-throw competitions. Fortunately the calls softened as the season progressed but there were a lot of NCAA-B events last year that both we and our competitors were unable to even post totals for.
Curious approximately how much money (in how short a time span) has to get put down for a line to move by a point (or even half a point)?	There's no one answer here as there's a lot of competing factors here. Earlier in the week when the limits are lower, a smaller bet from a respected player can move the line simply by having his financial opinion out there whereas a longterm loser dropping a significant bet on a point spread will rarely make us bat an eyelash. More often than not it's the opinion of the few (or changing information) that moves lines for us, not pure volume.
How come you guys are always the last ones to put up moneyline bets or even spreads in general? Why are your spreads constantly worse than other sites such as 5dimes?	We get this one a lot and its dictated largely by our player base. Because our players are more of the recreational variety (smaller bets with bets coming closer to game time), we don't traditionally see a lot of handle, especially in relation to our game day handle when we post early. In terms of raw numbers, ~80% of our wagering for an NFL event comes in about an hour before it kicks off.
Recreational, small bettors are the majority everywhere. You are in fact driving away the larger bettors at the same time by limiting yourself to that audience. 2 days prior to the game is not posting early. Most large, growing sites list at least a week in advance.	That's a fair point and we may look in the future to posting earlier with even lower limits. As it stands, we're comfortable with the current offering times as a business practice.
Why is it that bovada only offers a limited amount of moneylines?	It's a liability issue -- When spreads get up to a certain point, the ML payout on the underdog becomes high enough that, when available for parlays with other significant underdogs, creates concerning liabilities. Each book eventually kills the moneyline offering when the underdog odds get up to a certain point. Ours is just a touch more conservative.
How come you dont offer any kind of betting trend statistics?	Eh, a lot of the time these trends are close to useless. There are so many mitigating/contextual factors missing from "[team-x] has covered the spread [y-times] when [z-factor] is in play" that there's not always a lot to be taken from it.
	They serve as entertainment but I would rarely be betting off of these so-called trends.
Have you looked in to adding Esports such as Starcraft 2, or League of Legends?	As for Esports, I loved playing StarCraft when I was younger but I just don't see the market for it with our players and to be honest, wouldn't know where to start when it comes to capping it.
What stats do you use when making odds for week 1? Preseason or last season? A combo of both? Does it vary for the team?	Last season with adjustments for depth. Preseason is largely a tirefire (the Colts under Peyton Manning would traditionally go 0-4 and 1-3) but there are small snippets of info worth gathering, especially with teams that are looking to improve and actually need those extra reps, versus teams that are already established.
How does live betting work? Do you hire people to watch the games and close betting when certain events happen (penalties, goals, etc)? Are the people hired sitting in the actual stands watching the games? Because it seems they always see things happen before the delay.	We try to optimize the variety of the feeds we have available to us to ensure we have the quickest feed possible. Unfortunately (for our live traders), they have not yet been given the opportunity to attend the matches they're trading, but we try and keep them as comfortable as possible with their own private offices, big screen TVs and 6 different television feeds for each event.
What are your best leans for a 7 team parlay this opening weekend?	I would advise finding individual bets that you like more than looking to make it rich on a massive payout like that. Typically sportsbooks hold much higher on parlays then they do on a straight bets so you should...
	Wait.
	Seahawks Browns Bengals Bears Cowboys Giants Titans/Chiefs u43.5.
	Lock it up :)
Who do you like for final two this year and why? (NFL)	The Broncos out of the AFC because the rest of the conference is hot garbage otherwise. While the Seahawks are still the class of the NFC, I personally like the Saints to represent them in the Super Bowl this year. (I think that Rob Ryan defense will be deadly )
I find pop culture bets really fascinating; outside of awards shows, what leads to a pop culture event getting posted odds? Any chance that you'll increase your number of pop culture bets going forward?	Player interest drives these and awards shows are becoming more and more popular. We used to only offer the Academy Awards for film related wagering, but have since complemented that with the Golden Globes and Screen Actor's Guild awards.
	We're probably not going to add the Razzies anytime soon, though.
Is it hard to cap teams such as Baylor, Oregon, etc in NCAAFB? They seem like they can score so much that setting a line seams difficult. Going back the past two seasons, they are 11-0 ATS at home.	If it's a prospective blowout, then very much so. We have our ratings based on how strong we believe teams to be, but at what point do they take their foot off the gas? Trying to account for that is much harder than a shorter spread that is more likely correlated to what a team is trying to achieve over 60 minutes.
Are any games memorable as huge money makers (or losers) for Bovada?	Most recently, the Super Bowl was the best individual day in terms of spread, props, futures, even live betting -- We continued to offer an updated spread throughout the game and the Seahawks covered each one, the highest being around -37 in-play.

Last updated: 2014-09-08 21:02 UTC
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It's a Deadspin link, but I swiped the contents below so you don't have to click through:
WrestleMania Betting Odds, And How To Gamble On Pro Wrestling
WrestleMania XXVIII will go down Sunday in Miami, and I'd like you to ask yourself some questions. Can the Undertaker extend his Wrestlemania record to 20-0? Will Chris Jericho or CM Punk get the better of what could be an all-time classic? Does the Rock still have what it takes to bring down John Cena? More importantly, are you so sure of the answers to these questions that you'd be willing to put your money on it?
Once again you'll be able to enjoy WrestleMania as a fan and as a bettor, if you're so inclined. Courtesy of Bovada, here are the latest lines for Sunday's event:
Kelly Kelly & Maria Menounos -350
Beth Phoenix & Eve +225
Randy Orton -500
Kane +300
Cody Rhodes -120
Big Show -120
Daniel Bryan +225
Sheamus -350
CM Punk -250
Chris Jericho +170
Team Teddy +550
Team Johnny -1000
The Undertaker -1500
Triple H +800
John Cena -270
The Rock +210
If you're marveling that you're allowed to place bets on events that everyone acknowledges have predetermined outcomes, get with the times. Online sports books (though not Vegas, yet) have been taking wagers on professional wrestling for years now. For those making the lines, and those making the bets, WWE gambling presents a unique set of challenges.
Last year we spoke to Adam Young, head oddsmaker at Bovada, and he told us that setting the odds is a process that included equal parts educated guesswork and opinion.
"Guys in the office had a great time setting the odds, arguing back and forth," Young said. "They watch it, they decide who they think makes a more logical winner. Put a little bit of opinion in there too, because why not."
Oddsmakers take into account which wrestlers are in the middle of pushes, which ones are crowd favorites (the good guys tend to win at feel-good spectacle WrestleMania), and which ones make more sense for the bookers to champion going forward. But acknowledging that predicting pro wrestling is more an art than a science, the oddsmakers' early lines often don't match up with what the fans expect—Young said the lines move more from creation to showtime than any other sort of event—and that's an opportunity for you to maximize your return.
One way you won't cash in: scouring the internet for leaks of the planned winners. Pro wrestling does a magnificent job of keeping its plans secret, even keeping the actual wrestlers in the dark until just before the event. Last year we spoke to a pro wrestler currently on the independent circuit, but who had done two separate stints with the WWE. He told us that even now, two days before WrestleMania, it's likely that John Cena and the Rock haven't been told who's going to come out on top.
"We'd know the general contours of our own storyline, but not each twist or turn until right before. Anyone else's matches? Forget it. We knew just as much as the message boards. Maybe a total of five people know for sure until a few hours before the show. For the main event, it's likely [they'll] have gone over a few spots they wanted to hit during the match, but weren't told who was going to win, and how, until Sunday morning."
It's the most effective way for the WWE to preserve the drama for the event, but the government-level secrecy plays into the hands of sports books as well. Something can be predetermined, but as long as there's no chance of a leak, it's fair game for bettors. That's why things like Academy Award winners and prop bets about a halftime performer's wardrobe are regularly taken.
Though wrestling and other predetermined events are currently banned by the Nevada Gaming Control Board, Jay Kornegay, director of the Las Vegas Hilton, says he's seen a trend toward prop bets like MVP voting in recent years. So there's an outside chance that pro wrestling wagers could soon be made on the Strip.
Of course wrestling isn't like other sports, where one side wins clearly and fairly. There's every chance that one of Sunday's matches will be interfered with by a little person dressed as a leprechaun hiding under the ring—that doesn't happen in the NFL. So offshore sports books are protecting themselves. One, 5Dimes, offers separate odds for winners as announced at ringside, and at show's close. The difference would come into play if a match ends, but the Raw or Smackdown GMs notice interference and order the match restarted. (This happens almost weekly.)
The WWE sent us a statement reading, "The WWE thrives on spontaneity, and our fans expect nothing less than the unexpected every evening. We'd be doing them a disservice if story arcs were predictable, and with nearly 60 years in business, we've learned how to keep the element of surprise alive."
It's that commitment to surprise and secrecy that has WrestleMania even available to bet on, but the fact remains that no sports book is going to risk its shirt on a scripted show, where the better man or diva doesn't always win. To that end, trustworthy betting sites keep the maximum wagers low on wrestling, often around $50 per bet. Maybe you know better than the marks what's going to happen on Sunday, but it's never going to make you rich.