The following data was collected from the latest FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast updates on November 2nd. Both the UK betting odds and PredictIt market prices also correspond to November 2nd. Numbers, screenshots and analysis are subject to change over the next few hours. Get weekly updates sent to your inbox ↑ Politico, "Meet the 'stock market' for politics," October 31, 2014 ↑ U.S. Presidential General Election Results, "2008 Electoral Map Based on the Intrade Prediction Market," accessed January 25, 2018 ↑ Politico, "Meet the 'stock market' for politics," October 31, 2014 ↑ PredictIt, "What is PredictIt?" accessed August 28, 2020 Updated every four hours, this is an electoral map based on the then-current PredictIt market odds for the 2020 presidential election. Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day. Unless the odds are exactly 50%, the toss-up color is not used in this map. The colored gradients are used to show higher ... "Given stocks are up and the US dollar is slightly lower, this could be one clue the upcoming election will be much closer than many are expecting," according to LPL Financial's Ryan Detrick. 17 Responses to 2020 Election: Prediction Markets versus Polling/Modeling Assessment and Postmortem. PDV says: November 19, 2020 at 12:46 am. Big Caveat that should be added: State-level market prices on/after election night itself were very accurate, as usual. There were blips – Arizona was funky, because apparently there is a maximum number of traders and they hit that maximum some time ... On the heels of what was a wild Election Day 2020 that concluded without a winner, the stock market is surging. As of this writing, the Dow Jones is up 2.4% on the day, while the S&P 500 is up ... 2020 Presidential Election David M Rothschild on Posted on March 12, 2018 Key data on this page includes: Prediction Markets ( Betfair , PredictIt , Hypermind ), Bookie ( OddsChecker ).
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