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How much (negative) WAR would a potato accrue playing centerfield for a Major League team for a full season?

This is part 2 of my "How much WAR would ________ get?" series. You can find How much (negative) WAR would I accrue playing on a Major League team for a full season? here.

So yeah. I wasn't satisfied with just knowing how much negative WAR I would get. I needed to know how much WAR an inanimate object, say, a potato, would cost a Major League team. And more importantly, am I closer in value to said potato than I am to an actual big leaguer?
Once more there are assumptions. This is a magic potato. It has everyone convinced it is actually a competent center fielder. So no rearranging the fielders to compensate for having an inanimate object on your roster. But as soon as the play starts, all involved simultaneously say "oh fuck" as they realize they have been fooled into believing this tuber can play baseball.
We will go through the components as we did last time, rearranging the order a bit.

Positional Adjustment

Tate will be manning center for a full season. 162 games of CF is worth 2.5 runs. Looking good so far!

Batting

We can discuss whether a potato (or a carrot, for that matter) even with a human-sized strike zone would pick up a couple of walks (I think so, actually), but for the purposes of this exercise, we will assume Tate will go .000/.000/.000. Which brings us to the matter of plate appearances. As everyone knows, magic potatoes will fool people into believing they are decent lead-off men. So Tate will lead off 162 games. According to Baseball Reference's batting splits page, in 2019 there were 22824 PAs from the #1 spot in the lineup. This averages to ~761 per team. However, never making it on base will seriously diminish Tater's plate appearances. In 2019, leadoff hitters had an overall OBP of .335. This comes to a total of 255 on-base events for the average leadoff hitter. So I think 1 out of every 9 of those missing on base events will cost an individual player a PA. So we can subtract 28 PA from the 761 an average leadoff hitter would have, leaving Tate with 733.
From here we convert to wOBA. It's .000. That was easy.
We then determine wRAA ((.000wOBA -.320lg wOBA )/1.157wOBA Scale )x733PA = -202.7 wRAA
Well there goes the positive RAR we started with. -200.2 RAR

Baserunning

Here's the thing. If you don't get on base, you don't get (or lose) baserunning WAR.
WAIT! That's not true! By never hitting into a double play, Tate can actually come out positive in this component. In 2019, there were 32598 double play situations:
1--, 0 out 12-, 0 out 1-3, 0 out 123, 0 out 1--, 1 out 12-, 1 out 1-3, 1 out 123, 1 out
Total 2019 9974 2574 798 664 12158 2923 1864 1643
Percent of total PA .053 .014 .004 .004 .065 .016 .010 .009
In 733 PA 39 10 3 3 48 11 7 6
Total 2019 GIDP 996 248 53 65 1326 434 185 159
GIDP Percentage .010 .096 .066 .098 .109 .148 .099 .097
In 733 PA 3.9 1 0.2 0.3 5.2 1.7 0.7 0.6
GIDP Value .411 .565 .777 .961 .224 .429 .478 .752
Final Value 1.608 .551 .162 .245 1.167 .732 .348 .470
Let me explain. I took all double play situations found what percentage each one was of the total season PAs. I then multiplied them by 733 to determine how many of each situation Tate would face in a season. I then took the total of double plays in each situation to average determine the likelihood of a DP in each one. I then multiply that by the number of DP situations our hypothetical potato will be in. Knowing that Tate will never make contact, we know he will also never hit into a double play. Knowing this, every double play an average player hits will add value to Tater's WAR. To determine the negative impact of a DP, you take the run expectancy of the base-out state had the player made just a plain old out (if they don't make an out it gets incorporated in the batting section), and subtract the run expectancy of the base-out state after the double play. One I get those, I multiplied that by the number of double plays Tate hypothetically saved by never making contact. The last thing to do is just add up those values. This gets us to a 5.3 RAR for baserunning!
-194.9

Replacement Level

If Replacement Level Runs = (570 x (MLB Games/2,430)) x (Runs Per Win/lgPA) x PA then 733 PA will be (570x(2430/2430))x(10.296/186516)x733 giving Tater a boost of 23.1 RAR.
-171.8 RAR

Fielding

This last category is the most difficult to determine, and thusly the most controversial. For weeks I've been thinking about how I could capture the damage done to a team by replacing their center fielder with a potato. I tried understanding UZR and DRS, but that stuff is impenetrable. Alas, I came up with an idea. I would use brute force. I will go through every ball hit to center in a team's season, and mark down what I think the outcome would have been had the center fielder vanished as the ball hit the bat. If there's another fielder there to make the play, nothing changes. If there's one not too far away, maybe it changes a little. If there's nobody else in the vicinity, it would change a lot. But first, I needed a team. I settled on the Reds because their outfield was close to average by both UZR and DRS, in 2020 and also in the span of 2018-2020. In addition, the same holds true of their center fielders. I would never have been able to do this if it were not for two things. Firstly, Baseball Savant. The ability to filter for every play to your exact specifications and have video for each of those plays in the list was essential. The second is the 2020 season. There is no way in hell I would go through a full season's worth of balls to the outfield. But in 2020, Reds centerfielders only made 227 plays out there. Much more manageable. Now, I want to warn you as I was doing the list I couldn't shake the feeling that I was being too conservative with my estimates. It felt like I was marking too many would-be-triples as doubles and too many would-be-inside-the-park-home-runs as triples. I only ended up with like four homers which is probably way too little. I tried to compensate and make up for it by stretching it here and there, but I don't think that did much. I'll post the spreadsheet HERE and the Baseball Savant page it's based on HERE, and if anyone wished to re-do the list, I'll be happy to add it in an edit. So here's what I came up with. In 2020, 227 balls were fielded by Reds center fielders. 86 of them went for singles, 22 went for doubles, 3 went for triples. There were no inside-the-park home runs. There were 109 catches made, plus 7 sac flies. This gives opponents a .490 wOBA on balls hit to Reds center fielders. I didn't check it, but I'm going to assume that's close to average. After going through each play one by one, I determined that if there were a potato in center instead of a human, they'd end up with 52 outs, 4 sac flies, 28 singles, 96 doubles, 43 triples, and 4 inside-the-park home runs. If that seems like too little, you're probably right. But this is what I came out with and we're going to go with it. If this were to happen, opposing batters would end up with a .980 wOBA. From here, we treat it the same as we would treat a hitter's wOBA. We determine the amount of opportunities a center fielder would get in a full season. In 2019, center fielders made 20962 plays. That's about 700 per team over a full season. So we'll use the same formula we use to determine batting runs.
((.980wOBA -.490lg wOBA )/1.1857wOBA Scale )x700Opportunities = 289.3 runs
-461 RAR
Hoo boy. That's quite a number. If we convert it to wins we end up with close to -45 WAR. You'd need three of me to equal the damage this guy would do. If you had Tate in center, you could replace an average right fielder with 1923 Babe Ruth, left fielder with 2002 Bonds, and first baseman with 1927 Gehrig and still come out 5 WAR behind. -45 wins turns a 100 win team into a 55 win team. It turns a .500 team into a 36 win team. Before we even start counting WAR, we assume a 48 win replacement level. This guy knocks all that out on his own, making you start from scratch.
TL;DR -45 WAR. No, don't ever do this.
submitted by slightlyaw_kward to baseball [link] [comments]

How much (negative) WAR would I accrue playing on a Major League team for a full season?

I heard Sam Miller mention on a recent episode of Effectively Wild that you have to figure the WAR of a civilian would be considerably less than zero, possibly up to negative 20.
Let's do the math.
We'll assume a few things before we start. I am mandated by law to play every inning of every game. I am me, an overweight 30-year-old. This thought experiment doesn't put me on a specific team, just a general baseball season.
WAR is composed of six parts. Batting, fielding, baserunning, positional adjustment, league adjustment, and replacement level. I'm going to skip league adjustment because it requires me to do calculations for the whole league and it doesn't really change the player's final WAR that much. We'll assign values to these from simplest to hardest.

Fielding

I will not be allowed to take the field. This is simple. 0 runs.

Positional Adjustment

As I won't be taking the field, I'd be relegated the the Designated Hitter position. The positional adjustment for 162 games of DH is -17.5 runs.

Replacement Level

The formula for replacement level runs is Replacement Level Runs = (570 x (MLB Games/2,430)) x (Runs Per Win/lgPA) x PA
If I play 162 games and bat 9th (because duh) I figure I'd get ~600 PA. I came to this conclusion thusly: The two players with the most PA in 2019 were Marcus Semien with 747 and Whit Merrifield with 735. They were both leadoff hitters who played 162 games. So if I average that number, a leadoff hitter would get ~741 PA over the course of the season if he plays every game. The difference between a full season of a leadoff hitter and a number 9 hitter is 1 PA per game minus 1 PA every 9 games. This is because the leadoff hitter will always have one more PA than the number 9 hitter at the end of a game, unless the number 9 hitter wat the last batter to come up in the game. This would happen roughly once every nine games. So 741-(162-(162/9))= 597 PA. So let's do the calculation based on that. (We'll use 2019 numbers.) (570x(2430/2430))x(10.296/186516)x600= 18.9. This brings me up to 1.4 runs.

Batting

In response to a Chris Hayes tweet musing on whether or not he'd get a hit against a full season of Major League pitching, Eno Sarris wrote an article for Fangraphs discussing the idea. He concludes that Hayes would get about 2 hits in a season. If we assume I'm roughly at the level of Hayes (he's ten years older than me, but seems to be in better shape), I'm going to say nah. If they pitch to me like a regular Major Leaguer, there is no way in hell I would make contact, let alone get a hit. However, they will quickly realize they don't have to pitch to me like a Major Leaguer. This will change two things, to varying degrees, depending on how far they go with it. The first is whether or not I actually end up getting a hit. If I'm pitched somewhere around 70 MPH with few breaking pitches, I'm sure I'd get a couple of hits. However, I doubt this would happen, for a couple of reasons. This brings me to the second thing, walks. If I were pitched to as a big leaguer, I'd get on base via walks. It wouldn't be close to Major League average, as my eye is not close to Major League average, but at the same time I have much less incentive to swing, so I'd probably be doing that less. Which brings us back to pitchers throwing softer in order to avoid walks.
First, let's analyze how that works in real baseball. I think that while taking something off your fastball does improve a pitcher's control, it hits diminishing returns quite quickly. My reasoning for this is twofold. First, pitchers are conditioned to throw the way they throw. Slowing down too much changes everything. It messed with their mechanics in ways that wouldn't necessarily be positive. The second point is that throwing a ball from 60 feet six inches away into a box roughly 500 inches square is really hard, even for a Major League pitcher.
Take 2019 for example. In 2019, non-pitchers batted .256. Pitchers, on the other hand, batted exactly half that, .128. As a result of pitchers being that much worse at hitting, the average fastball thrown to them was 92.4 MPH, as opposed to 93.2 MPH thrown to non-pitchers. While their walk rates were only 3.1%, well below the non-pitcher rate of 8.7%, I believe this is due mostly to pitchers' ineptitude at taking walks. This is because the drop in velocity only improved their Zone% from 41.6% to 49.9%. Not an insignificant difference, but still really close in context. You'd think pitchers would take off even more than the less than 1 MPH they do when throwing to pitchers, all it does is improve Zone% by 8.3%, but they don't.
So let's assume the average fastball I see is 89 MPH. I still have a hard time believing I'd get a hit on one of the slower pitches in that range. If all I saw was the lower bounds of this range over the course of a full season, sure. But that wouldn't be the case. I'd be seeing very few of those lower bounds pitches, not to mention a nice amount of breaking balls to keep me honest. I'm going to stick with 0 hits. I'm going walk rate will probably be somewhere around pitchers' walk rates. Again, my guessing pitches would be abysmal, but if I'm smart, I'd swing as little as possible. Working the count won't be a thing, and I probably won't be able to stick to my 'swing as little as possible' rule as well as I'd like, so 3% seems reasonable. 3% of 600 PA is 18 walks.
That gets me to a .000/.030/.000 slash line. Yeah, that looks about right.
The first thing we have to do to determine my batting runs is calculate my wOBA. Using 2019 numbers, that would be (18walks x.69walk constant +0didn't do anything else )/600PA =.021 wOBA
We then determine wRAA ((.021wOBA -.320lg wOBA )/1.157wOBA Scale )x600PA = -155.2 wRAA
There is a further adjustment based on league, but since I won't be putting myself on any specific team, I don't need to do this part.
-153.8 runs

Baserunning

Well the good news is that I'd only get on base 18 times. Simulating baserunning stats isn't exactly easy. Luckily, I noticed that players' sprint speeds are fairly strongly correlated with their BSR. When I put all the 2019 sprint speeds and BSR into excel, the conversion equation it gives me is (Sprint Speed x 0.0086-0.2348)=BSTimes on Base
Great. So now all there is to figure out is my sprint speed. I asked my wife to clock me running down the block at full speed, but she didn't seem so jazzed about the idea. Well if you want something done, you gotta do it yourself. Before I get into the numbers, bear in mind I was running down a 40 ft driveway with a flip phone in my hand, only gave myself about 5 feet to get to full speed, pressed the button at the starting point, probably started slowing down early, and then pressed it again at the ending point. Science.
I clocked myself at 2.08 seconds. I measured out the distance and it came out to 485 inches. Which is 233.2 in/sec. Convert that to feet, and I was running at 19.4 ft/sec. Which was below Brian McCann's 2019 league minimum speed of 22.2 ft/sec, but not so far off that it would make me think I did something wrong. Good enough for me. So if we plug my 19.4 ft/sec into the equation, we get -0.07 BSR per times on base. I expect to get on base 18 times, so it comes out to a -1.2 BSR for the season.
-155 runs.

Conclusion

Finally, the last step is to convert runs to wins. The 2019 Runs/Win number was 10.296. So if I divide -155 by 10.296 I end up with -15.1 WAR. Yikes. Let's put that in context. According to Fangraphs, I would cancel out any season of any great player if we were on the same team and then some. 1923 Ruth? Gone. 2002 Bonds? We would net -2.4 WAR. 2013 Trout? Not even close. If I were were to replace Edgar Martinez on the 2001 Mariners, the winningest team in modern history, they'd only win 96 games, but hey, we'd still make the playoffs! Same with the 1998 Yankees. And this is the conclusion we should come out with. I would not necessarily ruin the greatest teams of all time. So I deserve a shot.
TL;DR -15.1 WAR, but I deserve a shot.
submitted by slightlyaw_kward to baseball [link] [comments]

How much WAR would a perfect (yet shy) leadoff man accrue in a Major League season?

This is part 3 of my "How much WAR would ________ get?" series. You can find How much (negative) WAR would I accrue playing on a Major League team for a full season? here and How much (negative) WAR would a potato accrue playing centerfield for a Major League team for a full season? here.

That's right, boys and girls. We're back with a new conundrum. Let me set the stage. Speedy McHitterson has been discovered to be a perfect leadoff hitter. He makes every play in center, he steals second at every opportunity, he has a perfect eye, and when he's thrown a strike, he gets a hit every time. However, he's incredibly shy and afraid to overstep his bounds. This means he'll never swing at a pitch outside the zone, even if he knows he can hit it. He also will never go past first base on a hit, so every his is a single. Speedy is afraid of stepping on teammates toes, literally and figuratively, so he won't make any plays in the field that weren't meant for him. He's also fearful of being perceived as too overconfident, so stealing third is out of the question, let alone stealing home. But for the things he does do, he has a 100% success rate.
To the categories!

Positional Adjustment

Speedy, like Tate, will be manning center for a full season. 162 games of CF is worth 2.5 runs.

Replacement Level

As previously established, the average leadoff hitter would have ~761 PA per 162 games. But Speedy is no average leadoff hitter. Speedy will have a 1.000 OBP. Meaning compared to the average 255 on-base events for an average leadoff man, Speedy will have 761, which is an extra 506. Following the logic from last time, getting on base an extra 506 times will result in another 56 PA (If one out of every nine extra on-base events result in an extra PA). Which, in turn, will result in an extra 4 PA (I think). So in the end of the day, Speedy will end up with 821 PA on the season.
So if Replacement Level Runs = (570 x (MLB Games/2,430)) x (Runs Per Win/lgPA) x PA then 821 PA will be (570x(2430/2430))x(10.296/186516)x821 coming out to 25.8 Runs.
28.3 Runs

Fielding

This one, it turns out, is quite simple. Similar to how we determined a potato's fielding runs, we compare this perfect player to the 2020 Cincinnati Reds centerfielders. To recap, in 2020, 227 balls were fielded by Reds center fielders. 86 of them went for singles, 22 went for doubles, 3 went for triples. There were no inside-the-park home runs. There were 109 catches made, plus 7 sac flies. This gives opponents a .490 wOBA on balls hit to Reds center fielders. Speedy, being perfect, would allow a 0 wOBA (his middle name is Fielder). Home run robberies are out of the question because, you know. So we'll compare them the same way we did last time, with the same formula we use to determine batting runs batting runs. First we determine the amount of opportunities a center fielder would get in a full season. In 2019, center fielders made 20962 plays. That's about 700 per team over a full season. So the calculation would go thusly:
((.000wOBA -.490lg wOBA )/1.1857wOBA Scale )x700Opportunities = 289.3 runs
I just realized something really cool. I actually calculated Tater to have this precise number of negative runs, because his wOBA allowed would be exactly double the average. This means if Speedy and Tate were to alternate games, they would average to a league average fielder.
317.6 Runs

Batting

We've already established a few facts. Speedy McHitterson will get about 821 PA in a season. He does not swing at balls outside the strikezone. He hits every ball in the strikezone for a single. This would result in a 1.000/1.000/1.000 slash line, but we would still need to determine how many walks and hits he'd get. So I put together a little table to figure that out.
Count Frequency Zone Out of Zone Strike odds Ball odds Strike overall odds Ball overall odds
0-0 1.000 95745 89033 .518 .482 .518 .482
0-1 .518 39460 53598 .424 .576 .220 .298
0-2 .220 14985 33022 .312 .688 .069 .151
1-0 .482 37702 33833 .527 .473 .254 .228
1-1 .552 35402 38838 .477 .523 .263 .289
1-2 .415 25414 44600 .363 .637 .150 .264
2-0 .228 13872 10640 .566 .434 .129 .099
2-1 .418 21098 17739 .543 .457 .227 .191
2-2 .491 37457 33526 .528 .472 .259 .232
3-0 .099 4573 2930 .609 .391 .060 .039
3-1 .251 9652 6289 .605 .395 .152 .099
3-2 .384 21163 16146 .567 .433 .218 .166
So to explain: the "Frequency" column is the overall frequency of the count, assuming no swings (which is important, as I'll explain in a second). This was determined by the following columns. "Zone" is pitches in the strikezone on that count. "Out of zone" is pitches outside the strikezone on that count. The next two columns are the percentages of a ball/strike in each count. Knowing that, we can tell the frequency of each count, if the batter never swung. 0-1 is going to be the odds of a strike on 0-0. 0-2 is going to be the odds of a strike on 0-1, times the odds of 0-1 occurring in the first place. 1-1 is the overall odds of a ball on 0-1 plus the overall odds of a strike on 1-0. We can use this chart to work out the number of walks of Mr. McHitterson. If he swings at every ball in the zone, and they all go for hits, the only way for him to get walked is if he's thrown four straight balls. According to this chart, that only happens 3.9% of the time, which we can now use as his walk rate. A 3.9% walk rate with 821 PA comes out to 32 walks in a season. Which leaves him with 789 hits, all for singles. Let's plug that into our wOBA formula. (32walks x.69walk constant +789singles x.870 single constant )/821PA =.863 wOBA
And from wOBA to wRAA: ((.863wOBA -.320lg wOBA )/1.157wOBA Scale )x821PA = 385.3 wRAA
702.9 Runs

Baserunning

To start, we give Speedy the same boost we gave Tate for never hitting into a double play. Over 821 PA, that comes up to 5.9 Runs. But the real value will come from stealing bases. To refresh, Speedy will steal second every time it's available. Afraid of looking like he's showing off, he will never attempt a double steal or a steal of third or home. We'll make the assumption that overall, the situations he's on base (always) will look like the league averages of occupied bases. There were 55998 plate appearances with men on first in 2019. Of those, 34240 (61%) were just a man on first. 12347 (22%) were first and second. 5026 (9%) were first and third. 4385 (8%) were bases loaded. This means that in 70% of situations with a man on first, second base was open. With a SB rate of 100% of the 70% of times on base (which is identical to the number of PAs) McHitterson had, this puts him at 575 steals for the season (that would be a record, by the way). Fangraphs gives .2 Runs per SB. This adds 115 Runs to our count, which comes out to a total of 121.8 baserunning runs. 824.7 Runs

Conclusion

824.7 is a lot of runs. If we do the 10.296 Runs/Win conversion it comes out to 80.1 WAR. As I said, that's a loooooooot. [Speedy could split time with Tate and they'd still combine for 32.5 WAR. It would take over five Taters to cancel out a Speedy.] EDIT: In my excitement, I accidentally confused myself with a potato. I'm the one who'd combine for 32.5 WAR. I'm the one who would need to be cloned five times to cancel out a Speedy. Tate and Speedy would actually combine to have a 17.6 WAR, which is still better than the best single-season WAR of all time. Two Taters would more than cancel out a Speedy. If you put Speedy on a team that literally did nothing else, he'd still make them roughly a .500 team.
TL;DR 80.1 WAR - Holy Fuck
Coming soon.....If Shohei Ohtani were actually Superman, how much WAR would he get?
submitted by slightlyaw_kward to baseball [link] [comments]

One letter to rule them all (W’s guide)

One letter to rule them all (W’s guide)
The second limited unit in this game arrived! As an AoE Sniper, she’s automatically one of my favorite units, no question asked. I’m not even hiding my bias, that’s right. But in the interest of making a guide I swear I will try to keep things objective. So get your snacks and drinks ready, since this is the longest post I've ever made and I apologize for the wall. I'll bold up the part that I think is important though, so look out for those.


I know she's a Sarkaz, but is that a bat on the top right of the background? Is she a Vampire like Warfarin and Closure?

Overview

AoE Sniper is actually better than what people give them credit for, but that’s just relativity and the people’s tendency for extreme/exaggeration statement. They share one or two weaknesses as AoE Caster but have enough of other stuffs to make up for them partially. With long range, splash damage, high evasion, team support damage amplifier, hard crowd control, consistent damage, and a big burst capable to rival that of Firewatch, W enters the Arknights world as a playable operator.

Stats

- Offensive stats:
Of all snipers, AoE Sniper’s base ATK is one of the highest, losing only to Wide Range Sniper, and whatever Rosa’s archetype is. And because W is a 6* unit, she will have the highest ATK among the AoE Snipers, and as a quick note, losing to Ambriel by only 40 ATK at max. As with high base ATK units though, their attack rate often is reduced to compensate. AoE Snipers attack once every 2.8s, which is just longer than Wide Range Sniper (2.7s), and just faster than Medics (2.85s), and AoE casters (2.9s). Control Specialists are their own thing we don’t count them.
- Defensive stats:
Despite that high ATK, their HP isn’t that massively shafted to balance it out. AoE Snipers’ HP is actually among the highest of the Snipers, but W’s HP isn’t necessarily notable among her kin. She lost out to Shirayuki by 25HP at max, lost out to May(!) and Exu. As for DEF, she’s average among the sniper, if not below average. Now that’s for base stats only, W has something else to offer her even more survivability with her kit, which we will get into later on.
- Cost:
As with any AoE unit in this game, their cost is higher in respect, and for AoE Sniper, it’s quite bad for one other reason as well. For W specifically, she gets hit by 1 other reason, she’s a 6* unit, the highest rarity in the game. Starting at 25 base, she can get as high as 29, gaining 2 extra DP per promotion level. AoE sniper is one of the archetypes that gain additional DP at E2, but there are always justifications for it, which we will get into it right now.

Range

AoE Sniper has the second longest range in the game, losing only to Ifrit, and tied with Wide Range Sniper and Rosa, excluding the side range. They are also the only archetype so far to gain extra range at E2, which is one of the main reasons for the extra increased cost at E2.
From left to right: AoE Sniper's range at E0, E1, and E2.
Now the extra range at E2 is the more important part, at least in my eyes. The little range at E1 rarely comes into play, as it is rarely that you would be able to let a range unit to look straight into an enemy lane. Usually, the range tile will be on the side of the route, and so the range on the side matters more often than the middle one. If you can use that middle range at E1, it’s either an Ifrit spot (Aak put that medicine gun down), or you’re looking in perpendicular from the path and the extra range at E2 still help you cover the area much further.

Trait

Deal AoE Physical damage.
This is why they are called AoE Sniper. Whenever they fire their projectile, at impact it explodes and deal damage in a certain radius around the impact location. This radius is 1. If the enemy died while their projectile is midair, it will still do AoE damage at the dead enemy’s location, the effect is just not shown (as I have (not) seen from Meteorite’s effect). AoE casters attack enemies instantly, so it doesn’t work there.

Talent

Available at E1 – Ambush:

After being deployed for 10 seconds, gain 40% Physical and Arts Evasion, and become less likely to be targeted by enemies.
At E2, upgraded to 60% Evasion.
An indicator that the talent is working: some red mist appear around W
The first talent is amazing for her survivability, and adding to all of her defensive stats earlier, which turns it from average to good. 40% is admittedly low enough to make the chance inconsistent, but 60% is more than enough. Additionally, W also reduces her target priority from the enemies, means that they will only target her if she’s the only one in her range (or if she’s deployed last along with Ethan and Manticore and other people with the same thing). So with the two of them combined, where W is less targeted from enemies, AND also dodges 60% of the attack that do come her way, W becomes more “tankier” than her stats suggest. Like this meme by ucky
Now, it may sound like some stupid anti-synergy, since enemies will target her less, making the Evasion redundant. But afraid not, as you can also place her closer to the enemies, and take the hits as the enemy approaches, but stop once the enemies find your other allies. That way, it put less strain on your frontline blocker. Or it can be used to solo a lane with less healing needed.
It’s even more amazing when you consider the fact that, with W’s deploy cost, she’s more likely to be the second last or last unit deployed. Unless your vanguards can handle the waves up until you have enough for both W and your dedicated lane blocker to shift the aggro from W to that blocker. Well, with W’s talent, now you don’t have to do that, as you can just plop W after anyone and she will still be the lowest priority target, just ensure that she lives for 10s first, and bam, problems solved.
You can’t play this talent quite like Firewatch’s S1 or April’s S2 (woah spoiler alert!), as even though 60% Evasion is a huge number, it’s still ultimately a chance. You also can’t drop straight down in the middle of a bunch of ranged enemies like April too, as it need 10s to activate, while Firewatch can just straight up avoid any attack if her skill is up. (no it’s not my Firewatch bias… kinda). You can put her alone in a lane with minimal support though, like with someone who has global regen, or just time it in a way that she’ll end up with a little HP left, because it’s not like she has to stay at full health to deal full damage. The talent allows her to solo in a lane in that way, and you can practically save a healer slot when carefully calculated. (just reset the stage til you get the correct RNG roll lul)
However, if you’re like me, and abused AoE Sniper long range to it’s limit, their location is probably going to be away from the frontline by like a large distance, a distance that not many enemies can reach without walking through the blockers, then the talent is admittedly not as useful. Of course not all map is just 1 lane funneling type, so it doesn’t work like that all the time (it does work against large/global range enemy like Mortar or Faust though). Basically, all of that is just to say, this talent really covers most issues that come with her archetype.
The talent is also good at dodging everyone who are pulling for her.
cough... anyway

Available at E2 – Insult to injury:

Stunned enemies in W’s range takes 18% extra physical damage.
tl;dr at ends of this section
Now the second talent is also amazing. It’s just like Sesa’s talent except more useful more flexible/accessible. Any enemies that is stunned inside her range will take 118% of any physical damage during the stunned duration, and no spoilers intended, but W’s skills can cause quite a lot of stuns.
This talent is a Final Damage Multiplier, which is a multiplier that is calculated after all enemy’s defense stat. Which sounds awful, given that the physical damage formula is (ATK – DEF) * Final Multiplier, which lessen the effect of the multiplication. The good news is all Final Damage Multiplier stack multiplicatively, i.e. if we have, say, E2 Pramanix talent working, that’s 118% * 130% = 153.4%. It can snowball fast, if we give Sesa’s talent with 14% as well, that’s 174.876% multiplier to the final damage. You’re not necessarily going to have all of that multipliers all the time, so we’re just having 18% for now. It’s still quite good even if it’s affected by DEF though, as I will argue in S3 section.
Considering that it’s a Final Damage Multiplier though, that means it can increase the minimum damage from 5% to… 5.9% yay. But the more important thing is, this is a debuff to the enemies, which means all allies will benefit from W’s talent, making her a team player as well. Well, okay, just the physical damage allies though, but the physical damage dealing allies are more numerous than the arts one, as also stated in my old Sesa guide, and unlike Sesa, W can combo with every physical damage ally, unlike Sesa who can’t really teamwork with long range units, and SA (I mean, who would stay alive to be blocked while SA is S3-ing amirite?). Even if it only boosts physical damage, people like Mostima can still benefit from this talent, assuming if the rest of the squad still deals physical damage.
As spoiled above, W’s skills cause stuns herself, so this is where it gets even better. The stun is applied before the damage instance is dealt (just like any other debuff), which means, W get the bonus damage herself, so at E2 she basically has free bonus damage to all of her skills. It is still not a guaranteed damage buff always, as you need the enemies to be inside W’s range to achieve this, and those skills has quite a bit of an explosion radius.
Now I know what you’re thinking, Suzuran also has something similar and it doesn’t work with her own attack, why is that? Well there are actually 2 layers to her talent, she causes sluggish to hit enemies, and then applies Weakening to sluggish-ed enemies in her range, but it kicks in a little too late, even if the slow is applies before the damage. I mean, I’m no HG members, but I assume it’s to avoid the simple fact that if it works like that, any of Suzuran’s basic attack is automatically amplified, which sounds strong, while anyone else with a similar Final Damage Multiplier debuff has some other working attached to it (below 40% HP, blocked with allies, stunned through skills or allies,…) which doesn’t amplifies their basic attack all the time. But those are all conjectures and guesses, just know that this talent amplifies all of W’s skills if she hits enemies inside her range, and boost all physical allies at the same time.
That was quite a lot for just 2 talents… now on to her skills.

Skills

- RIIC Skills – always available – Patience: When W is a trainer, increase mastery SPEED for all Sniper by 30%.
Upgraded at E2: if the training is for mastery 3, further increases the training speed by 65%
Available at E2, separated skill – Insipid: When W is a trainer, increases morale consumption by 1 per hour when training a Sniper skill to mastery 3.
This is still a problem for some people, but this type of base skill increases training speed, not reduces training time. A speed increases of 30% led to about 23% reduction in training time, like Ptilopsis’ talent. But unlike Ptilopsis’ talent, any unit in the training room already gains 5% training speed, so it’s actually 35%, which is about 25.92% time reduced.
At E2, the speed remains the same for any masteries except the third one, where it is boosted to 95% (I mean, I hope it is that good, since the drawbacks of double morale consumption attached at E2 is quite bad.
I shouldn’t diddle around much with base skills, so let’s continue.

First skill: King of Heart

Btw if you want the TL;DR for all 3 skills, look for the bolded line in each mini section, or something ;-;
- Description:
Immediately launches a grenade, dealing physical damage to all enemies in explosion radius and stuns them.
- Stats at level 7:
310% AoE physical damage, stuns for 2.1s, costs 19 SP, no initial SP, Auto Recovery, manual activation.
- Masteries:
M3 increases the damage to 350%, stun duration to 3s, and reduces SP cost to 16.
- Further details:
This skill functions essentially like Meteorite S2. Upon clicking the skill, she will launch an attack with the stats mentioned above. This attack does not affect attack interval… in a way.
W (and Meteorite), performs an attack every 2.8s with no other ATK SPD buffs. Using W’s S1 or Meteorite’s S2 will not change that interval but will interrupt the normal attack that comes with those intervals. Let me put it this way, after they launch an attack, you can wait 2.5s, use the skill, and W/Meteorite will immediately launch the next attack that comes at 2.8s. It will cancel any attack animation currently ongoing, so be careful with that. The video will hopefully clarify what I mean.
Don't use it when she's about to make a normal attack though
The explosion has a radius of 1.2 tile. While that increased area sounds not that significant compared to the basic radius of 1, it is 44% larger in area covered, which is more significant than it seems.
- Usage:
Don’t.
.
Let me backtrack though. The skill is actually just fine, even without the trick I mentioned. You can think of it as if W is shooting out Projekt Red’s S2 but without Red’s talent, which is actually better than it sounds. A bit spoiler again, but it is the only skill in W’s kit that is a near instant AoE stun.
The problem is, if you need this skill from W, something has already gone wrong. The delayed stun from S2 and S3 don’t matter 95% of the time. Her S2 has less stun duration, but also less cost, her S3 has longer cooldown, but is 5 levels stronger, and so, the time where you need her S1, is when you need to deal with a clump of drones (will explain in S2 section), in less than 33-39s and more than 16-19s, constantly. For that, a suggestion to replace W with an AA sniper is valid, and this is one of the few cases where Meteorite is better, since her S1 blast damage is just too good at not caring who’s in the radius.

Second skill: Jack in the Box

- Description:
The next attack instead set a mine that last 2 minutes in a deployable tile (both ranged and melee tiles). The mine will detonate when an enemy is nearby, dealing AoE physical damage and stuns for a duration.
- Stats at level 7:
250% physical damage, 1.8s stun, 10 SP cost, no initial SP, Auto Recovery, auto activation.
- Masteries:
M1 reduces the SP cost to 9, damage to 260%.
M3 reduces SP cost again to 8, damage to 280%, stuns duration to 2.2s
- Further details:
The mine can only be placed inside W’s range, but on any deployable tile. If there are no enemies in range, W will place mine randomly on any valid tile. The mine can be “retreated”, if you don’t like the random targeting because it’s blocking an important spot for your other operator, just click on the mine, then retreat it like any other operator. (It also works for Silence’s drone and Shamare’s doll).
As long as there is an enemy in range, W will plant a mine in their place. She will auto aim the mine at the tile of the enemies is on with the same priority as her normal attack. That is to say, whoever she’s attacking, when the skill is up, she will put the mine on that guy… if possible. What if she cannot place a mine on that tile, but other tiles are free? Well then it’s random as you can see from the clip below, where both valid enemies are on top of another ally, and thus she cannot place the mine. It’s treated as if there are no enemies in her range, because she wouldn’t even attempt to place a mine nearby that tile. Look at this for example
If there is a valid place on an enemy that is not her current priority, then the mine goes to that guy. In that clip, if I retreat Myrtle, then the mine is always placed there, regardless of her target priority. In this case, it’s probably the next valid enemy that is mine-able that also fit her target priority. In the CN wiki, they said something about if there are 2 enemies in range that is the same priority (least path left to blue box), then it goes to the one with higher HP (if I’m reading the google translate correctly). The mine priority also ignores the Guerilla Defender aggro, from what I’ve seen.
The skill converts W’s next attack into planting a mine, and so she will not perform the normal attack for that interval when the skill is up. It is important in a sense that, if the skill is done charging when W just finished her normal attack, she will have to wait for that 2.8s interval to pass before using it. It can be important at times, especially considering that…
The mine takes 1.5s to explode after triggered. It’s a considerable amount of time in conjunction with that attack time earlier.
The triggering range is 1.35 tiles away from the center. Incidentally, the explosion radius is also 1.35 tiles. This means 2 (or 2.5) things.
  • The mines can trigger on someone who’s diagonally away from the tile but not too far. It’s not exactly like 8 tiles around itself like Waai Fu S2 or Phantom S3, but it’s close enough. Quick video to see how bad it can potentially be
  • That also means fast enemies can outrun the explosion as well. To outrun a mine in the longest route, they need to cover 2.7 tiles in 1.5s. Only Sarkaz Lancer so far in this game is able to do so, and only when they gained max speed.
I am speed
But the more important part of fast enemies is that, if they are just slightly fast enough, they can run enough distance to reach a different mine and thus triggering more mines than needed in order to kill them. Especially if 2 mines are close together, as someone can just go up to the first one, trigger it, go to the second one, trigger that one as well, and died from the first mine because it was delayed. That means if your other DPS is not enough, you can easily waste a lot of mine after all those times spent stacking them up. The enemies only need to cover at maximum 1.35 tiles per 1.5s, that’s a movement rate of 0.9. Do you know how many enemies have at least 0.9 mvm spd? I don’t actually, please tell me. That of course doesn’t matter if there is no mine stacked and W is just using each one as it comes.
thanks to 777ucky for the clip since I was getting lazy when I get to this part lul
Another important part of the trigger radius is that, despite being confined in W’s range only, it can still be triggered by enemies outside her range. Effectively, with this skill, W has an extra layer of damagin range outside of her base range, which is nothing to scoff at, especially considering that she can use this skill with or without enemies.
Or, if you want to be cheeky, you can find maps where there are non-deployable tiles and point W to that area. This forces the mines to be in a few specific locations only, with some working from your other operators. That way you can guaranteed that there is always a mine in your selected location. And speaking of which, if there are no valid tile in her range at all and she gain a charge for the mine, she will just hold it forever, until a valid tile shows up. That can be good or bad, depends on how you play your cards (no not the King of Heart card).
If you still remember what I said back in her first skill, you’d be asking why her S1 is used for drones. Well, it’s because the mines cannot hit drones. They cannot be triggered by drone, and they cannot damage drone if triggered by someone else. An explanation is that since the mine is on the ground, its explosion cannot hit drone. Which is a bad explanation, because Sesa’s S2 bombs also stay on the ground, and they hit drones just fine. Sesa is good confirmed???
Some miscellaneous infos about the mines:
  • The mines actually have stats, apparently. None of the stats matter though, since it’s invincible, cannot be attacked, cannot block, and all damages are calculated using W’s ATK.
  • You can see if a mine is triggered or not. When triggered it will start flashing red.
  • If W is retreated, all of the mines are instantly gone, without any damage (same for the 2mins timer).
  • Once a mine is out, it is instantly ready and can be instantly triggered (important for those who plays Techies a lil bit too much).
- Usage: look for the → for the most important part
Best for when you want to deal with constant wave of enemies that is a little bit stronger than trash mobs without paying your mind to W. And if they are just trash mobs, her auto attack couple with other operators would be more than enough to clean those. The stacking mines strat doesn’t work that well either given the waste usage against enemy’s speed, but it still works fine more often than not, and is a great way to make use of downtime between wave.
The triggeexplosion radius can be used to extend her range, true, but it should not a strat to be based around, while still worth it to remember when you’re trying to find space to put W. And speaking of space, since the mine need a deployable tile to work, sometimes you may find W not able to bunch up mines together due to the map’s layout, and so it is kinda map dependent. Technically her allies are also fighting for location as well, but as the commander, you should be able to pacify them and plan around it.
very quick 2 examples of maps with enemies on a lane with undeployable tiles
Oh and regarding the extend range through the mine’s explosion radius, if a mine is at the edge of W’s range, the enemy that trigger it has a chance to be damaged and stunned from outside of her range, and thus not receiving the damage amp from her E2 talent, which is also not that great.
This skill is usually compared to Meteorite’s S1, and in the general calculation, W wins out by a little bit (W slightly loses out in ideal conditions for Meteorite, which neve… rarely happen). Technically, Meteorite is still better to deal with drones, as her massive splash doesn’t really care who she’s targeting.
→ Remember what I said about holding a lane solo back in her first talent? This skill is the best to work with it. Usually, when we’re talking about solo-ing a lane, it’s assumed that the lane’s enemies’ density will be light. Enemies will be appearing in a small amount over an amount of time. The evasion chance then is helpful for not needing much babysitting, maybe for even the whole run, and the fact that the lane has low density means that W will have all the time to stack up mine, and so the extra loss of mine per enemy doesn’t matter either.
For running alongside with other ops, do remember the limitation of deployable tile. To maximize the amount of available mine, it’s generally considered best to place W as forward as possible, as her long range will cover more area. In that case, her first talent will be fully used. As a ranged enemy approaching, they will attack her, since they see her first, where it will miss 60% of the time, but as those enemies move a little further, they will face other operators, by then they will stop attacking W due to the lower priority. It can spread the damage out to multiple operators, making them less likely to be in a low enough HP that they’ll die in the next hit.
→ If you want to use the long range to push W in the backline to save space for shorter range unit, this skill still works, but in a different way. If there’s no available tile in her range left, but a mine is in 1 of those tiles, you can chain stun the enemy that triggers that mine. Since W has to hold her charge until a space is available, once a mine is gone, W will instantly replace it. Effectively, you get double the stun duration (well it depends on her attack interval at the time, but still), and double damage, making it a pseudo burst damage of sort.
really great for when you can force the mine to be where you want it to be
This skill gives consistent and automated damage for an operator that lacks said consistent damage (because of her innate stats). However, covering weaknesses is for the weak-minded fool! Okay calm down just a joke. But if you’re not familiar with AoE Sniper, or any archetype with slow but powerful strike, consistent DPS skill is the way for you to start stepping into learning how to use them, and this skill give you the most stun uptime for all of W’s skill (note: not stun duration, stun uptime).
→ There are more issues with S2 than you’d expect, but nothing too major individually. And hey not like every other operator have no issues with their consistent skills.
But if you want a little more explosive, you’ll come to love her third skill, which is intricated, interesting, and is what I’d recommend to master, for a variety of reasons.

Third skill: D12

- Description:
Place bomb on a few enemies in range, prioritizing enemies with highest current HP. After 3 seconds, the bombs explode, each one dealing AoE Physical damage and stun for a duration
- Stats at level 7:
Target 3 enemies, dealing 280% damage, stuns 4s, cost 39 SP, 17 initial SP, Auto Recovery, manual activation.
- Masteries:
M1 target 4 enemies, 290% damage, cost 37 SP, 18 initial SP.
M3 deal 310% damage, stuns 5s, cost 33 SP, 20 initial SP.
- Further details:
3 bombs that deals 280% damage eh? I wonder if I have heard something similar somewhere… No Wind, you must not lose focus, you’re better than this.
As described, once the bombs latched, it will explode after 3 seconds. This skill has the longest delay from skill activation to stun of all of W’s kit, about 3.5s from tapping the skill to when it explodes.
The bomb has an explosion radius of 1.2, just like her first skill.
If an enemy with a bomb attached die before 3s is up, the bomb immediately explodes and deals the damage and stun. It’s quite hard to actually do it where it matters, because it targets enemies with highest current HP, so one of the enemies has to have the 4th lowest HP among them, but also higher than all of the non-selected enemies, and to be easily killed from that HP amount too.
Regarding her E2 talent, since there is a 3 seconds delay, you’ll find that W may target a bomb on an enemy, but then they walk out of her range before it goes off. Fast enemies are one thing, but it also applies for cases where W is facing perpendicular to the enemies’ path, where her width of range is only 3 tiles, unlike the amazing 5 tiles of length.
All of the damage stacks completely, if all 4 bombs are close together, all 4 affected enemies will take 4 times the damage (or 3 each before mastery). That is a yuuuge burst of damage that not many will survive. If someone survived, they will proceed to be stunned for a long duration afterward, and this skill has the longest stun of all of W’s skills.
Unlike Firewatch, you can easily aim all bombs close together, because it doesn’t have the 1 bomb per tile restriction and enemy tends to clump together when blocked by your frontline. But like Firewatch, I will advocate that stacking all the bombs together is not the only way to use the skill. You can just as well drop this to a scatter group of enemies and expand the stun area massively, split up between 2 lanes (check the enemies’ HP first though) and basically cover 2 lanes at once. What I have said about using Firewatch’s S2 can still apply here, albeit slightly differently.
The bomb’s damage is actually determined on cast, not on hit! What that means is, if you are buffing W in order to get one of those orgasm-worthy explosions, you need to buff W first before using the skill. Then the bomb’s base damage is finally determined, and thus dealing that damage after the 3s delay. This may be why the bomb do not show any red number when exploded, unlike the other skills that also has a high multiplier, like Firewatch, but also Meteorite, Sesa… This video will make it clearer.
Remember: Buff before skill!
Thanks to ucky with the W nuke video that helped me realized this lul. I know, it won’t matter most of the time, since people seem to associate buffing with meme-ing, but it’s worth putting it in the back of your mind when you are going for it.
Also, you can also see the effect of W’s E2 talent, as staying on the field will obliterate the Defender, while going off field will only kill the middle guy. Yes, if it’s calculated before DEF, then it’s going to be even more destructive, but as a team support effect, this is probably the better way to balance it, I supposed.
- Usage:
As you can already guess from the description, the skill is best for annihilating a group of enemies close together. It can kill even the tankiest of enemies, or at the very least, badly wounded them. Take the new Guerilla defender with 1300 DEF and 15k HP, at S3M3 lv56, 4 bombs leave the guy with ((935*310%)-1300)*4*1.18 = 7544.9, that’s like half of his HP already.
But I have also said that you shouldn’t feel like you can only use the skill that way. The cooldown is pretty long before masteries, true, so if you just want to delete big group of things, keep doing it. I usually do that too. I just also wouldn’t hesitate to use it for other cases where I really need it. Example cases like where you need this guy down faster, but he’s not with 3 other enemies, or even if he’s alone inside W’s range, you can still use this skill for a 4-5s stun after a 3s delay. It’s not the best way to use this skill, but it’s not terrible too.
Because of the manual activation, you can be in control of when you want to blow enemies up, as with the many cases to use this skill I have presented. A controllable burst of damage and long duration stun is just that amazing. What that really mean is, this skill is more flexible to use than people give it credit for. The only problem is the long cooldown before M3, and even at M3, it still has a long enough cooldown to force you to make every use count. (I mastered nuking with Firewatch 50SP cost, what does 33SP cost even means lul). You can use E2 Ptilopsis to make it faster though!
→ You can combo with other allies to make a huge explosion too, you don’t have to time it yourself with enemies’ waves. The best allies are one that can easily clump enemies together, like Magallan, Suzuran, FEater, Weedy S2 (not S3 because enemies will just die). DEF reduction allies also work, like Pramanix and Shamare. Late shoutout to Manticore S2, but it stuns enemies every hit, and guess what W’s E2 talent can do?
→ Just remember the most important thing, timing. Every time you use the skill, you have to ask, “are those guys I’m about to blow up the most dangerous threat for the next 40s?”. If yes, blow them up. If no, ask yourself “will my other units able to handle those upcoming guys if W isn’t ready yet?”. If you’re going blind in a map so you can’t tell ahead, then make sure you can answer yes to the second question before using the skill. When you can answer yes to that question, do whatever. You can also ask “can I hold them long enough to allow W the time to recharge her skill?” Depends on which type of enemies, you can actually freely use the skill when you feel like it, if you have a great block squad. You may also ask “if I save this skill too much and missed the chance to use the skill and failed the run, then what?” Then you live and you learn. As said above, nuking a bunch of enemies isn’t the only way to use the skill, and so you can make it a panic button to stun/kill 1 guy that is about to leak, even that is a not terrible usage of the skill, just learn the tempo better so you don’t have to panic yourself with leaks next time.

Some conclusions/thoughts

You may have heard “M1 both S2 and S3 first and see which one you like better” in the megathread a “few” times. I’m not sure if I want to make a definitive answer, but if I have to make one, I’ll have to say “S2 if you’re unfamiliar with AoE Snipers or any slow attacking unit, S3 if you are used to, or prefer, precise timing and decision making”. It still depends on situation, of course, and M1 both skills are certainly a great stop point, as it is both cheap, and unlocks a major breakpoint of each skill.
Each skill has their own way to be abused to fit what you need, but remember, W alone won’t the only damage operator in your squad, so you can just adjust the team, and expands your tools’ variety, rather than adjust how a tool is used just to fit what you need.
If you are questioning whether or not to invest in W or other lower rarity AoE Sniper, just go with W. A 6* investment is costly, but it’s also worth the price more. There will be cases where Shirayuki, Meteorite, or even Sesa can be better, but before those cases show up, you would already use W enough time before that, and as said, W’s skill is still flexible enough to partially fill whatever you’d need of those lower rarity AoE Snipers. Just don’t be like me and build all of them, well unless you want to.
AoE Snipers might not be great for general usage, because AA Sniper can shoot faster and cheaper to deploy. But if you can work for it, you can beat all of the game with only AoE Snipers and 1 or 2 supportive units (and a little bit of overleveling and bruteforcing). So if you want to start using AoE Sniper, but are afraid of the learning curve, don’t be. You can just slowly learn about them by adding them to your squad that you're already used to play with. And as said in the first talent section, it can cover a major weakness of AoE Sniper, and couple with many hard crowd control abilities, W is a great starting location to step in to the world of slow but powerful nuke damage units.
Now all that left is to pull W, ezpz.
.
How are you guys doing in this banner? Oh wait wrong question, if you have W and built her, how did you find her? Is there anything I missed, since I’m pretty sure I always miss something? And biased, don’t forget biased, which is strange since I don’t like W as a character that much, but for gameplay, one of the best, nearly on par with Firewatch (you’re still the #1 pls put that radio down). Anyway, jokes aside, hope you enjoy the post, and hope to see you next time for… someone, idk yet.

Sellout section kek

Other guide posts that is gathered in this post by u/LastChancellor
And Indra guide by u/Boelthor since the other dood didn't update his post yet lul.
Completely unrelated to the sellout, below is my biased opinion, tread carefully.
Why do I think S3 is flexible? I consider instant nuke skills are one of the hardest skill types to use, but it is also one of the most intriguing because of its possibilities. If you find yourself worry about the future threat too much, you will easily find situations where when those threats do show up, enough time has passed that if you used it earlier, the skill would have been up by now anyway. So you find yourself constantly have to ask 1 big question “can I use it now and still be fine before it comes back up?” Answering that question is the best part of these nuke skills, as whenever you can answer yes to it, depends on how the skill functions, people’s playstyle, strategy, team lineup, map, and enemies’ route and composition. And that’s why I think it’s the most flexible type of skill. Because if you just switch up a few things, and the way to use the skill change, or the timing change, and it can fit the playstyle of anyone who’s willing to go with it.
submitted by Windgesang_ to arknights [link] [comments]

Analyzing & Ranking 200+ K-Pop Music Videos (2020 Edition)

This year (so far) I have watched and ranked 202 K-pop music videos. Because uh....well...it's...fun?
Following each viewing, I whipped open Google Sheets and rated them on a scale of 0-10 on six or seven different categories, averaged those scores together for an overall score, and an official "grade" (S being the highest, F being the lowest), essentially ad infinitum.
The categories I considered are as follows, with some guiding questions to help y'all understand:
  1. Concept-Song Correlation (CSC): Rather than looking at how much I personally enjoy the song/concept, I ask myself: how well does the song fit the concept? How does listening to just the song alone make me feel, and how does watching the MV make me feel? Does watching the MV enhance the feelings I get from listening to just the song, or confuse them? How do the lyrics and the MV correlate?
  2. Aesthetic Coherency (AC): How well does the MV establish a consistent aesthetic universe? How well represented is the director's vision for the "world" of the MV discernible? Does each scene in the MV live in the same world, or do things shift? If so, is the aesthetic change justified or random, and does it feel jarring or smooth?
  3. Production Design (PD): A broad category encompassing costumes, haimakeup, set design, props design, and lighting design. How well are these design elements executed? How well do they portray the concept of the MV? Are they novel or familiabasic?
  4. Cinematography, Editing, and Pacing (CEP): For cinematography: how well-framed are the shots? Are they static or dynamic, and do I think the director made the right stylistic choices? Are the shots basic or cinematic? How well do they convey the mood of the MV? For editing: do all the shots match up? Are there any awkward transitions? Creative transitions? For pacing (usually dependent on editing): does the video drag at all? Does my mind wander?
  5. Performance Quality (PQ): How well do the artists perform? If it's a plot-based music video, do they act? If so, do they act well? If it's more aesthetic-based, how immersed are they in the concept? Do their facial expressions/body language support the concept?
  6. 6. Originality (O): How many times have I seen this concept before? Does this video do something new, or have a unique spin on something familiar, or does it just regurgitate common motifs? Is it treading any new ground, either concept/design/editing-wise?
  7. (Optional) Storyline (SL): For plot-based MVs: does the story make sense?
Each video starts with a default score of 5 in each category, and I would add/remove points based on my answers to each of these questions. This led to an average overall score of about 6.9/10, which I classified as a C+ on my grading scale (you can see a clearer explanation of the grading on the sheet).
You should definitely note that my rankings are based very much on technical grounds, rather than raw enjoyment levels. This is because of my professional/university background, which basically cursed me to want to analyze every piece of entertainment I come across. As such, I hope that everyone knows that you do not have to agree with my rankings at all!
Everyone has different metrics for what makes a good music video, and these are just mine. Please, do not take any rankings personally, and please note that I don't think there's many truly "bad" MVs out there. I wouldn't watch so many if I did.
Finally, please remember: these rankings do not take into account song quality/preference.
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With that in mind...
Link to doc temporarily removed for housekeeping.
But since numbers don't tell a full story, here's my (far too long) explanations for why I love what I believe to be the Top 13 K-pop music videos this year, AKA the thirteen music videos which I scored as "S-tier" videos.
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  1. AB6IX: "Salute"
AB6IX is honestly the embodiment of a group that really can do both. Their summer comeback, "The Answer," was one of my favorite bright concepts this year, so the absolutely delightful whiplash that "Salute" brought along was second-to-none. The video opens with one of my favorite still-shots of the year, kicking off a driving, yet simultaneously unhurried sequence. The editing fits the concept of both the song and video, which features some bombastic military band aesthetics: everything about it moves in a self-assured pace. The production design is fantastic as well—the costumes are detailed, the sets are specific (I loved this Easter egg in the fencing scenes, which displays the video's premiere date on the scoreboard, and these sparking lights), and most of all: the lighting design. One of the most underutilized design elements in K-pop, the lighting design of AB6IX is bold, dynamic, and brings flavor to scenes and sets that could otherwise be bland and basic. The individual shots are sometimes not as well-framed or otherwise clean as a they could be, but overall, it's pretty damn great.
12. GOT7: "Not by the Moon"
There are so. many. space. concepts. in. K-pop. And yet, hardly any of them focus or even show the moon in their astronomical adventures, so GOT7 is already winning through their decision to focus on a singular celestial body above all else. The design elements of this video are absolutely stunning, as any video inspired by a Romeo & Juliet quote should be, and make use of something you rarely see done with such intention: texture. As much of this video is in monochrome, the designers used texture throughout the video to add depth and visual stimulation for the viewers, saving us from what could've been a very boring fate. You see varying textures in the members' suits, in this hallway scene, this bedroom set, and more. There are shots with references to Renaissance art and the famous balcony scene of Romeo & Juliet itself. Aesthetically, this video goes above and beyond the call of duty.
  1. Lee Hi: "Holo"
One of the most impressive things about "Holo," both the song and the music video, is its ability to make you deeply sad and nostalgic, but hopeful at the same time. It's this duality of despair and hope that drives the entirety of the MV: opening with a shot of a girl staring out into a dreary city landscape, only to be immediately followed by a soft, white feather floating through a sunny sky (in some cultures, an omen that an angel is watching over you), the juxtaposition is clear immediately. We see it in the lighting design, which switches from warm to cool light rapidly to emphasize the changing moods. We see it in the editing, which cuts between the disturbing and playful, the happy and sad. The director is trying to mix these emotions for us, creating a really potent brew of melancholy that fits the song perfectly, along with providing us with some gorgeous aesthetic shots along the way.
  1. Agust D: "대취타 (Daechwita)"
This music video is a movie, pure and simple. BTS money really gets you full, outdoor film sets with 100+ extras for your non-promoted mixtape, and they use it to full effect here. The attention to detail is unmatched; from the realistic Joseon Era marketplace, to the literal palaces, to the retro car used to channel the artist's inner Scarface (who he often references in his work). The "subtle" cameos bring in a bit of levity to an otherwise dark concept, and the narrative runs deep: we see the set-up for the ending of the video about 44 seconds in, when he nods to a butcher, who will later pretend to execute him and help him in assassinating the emperor. Beyond the story itself, the pure scope of the music video lends to its intensity; the head-banging scene is epic and grandiose in a way only a BTS-associated music video can be. The only missed opportunity is the editing, which could have stood to be a little more adventurous, but you hardly notice with everything else going on.
  1. Day6: "Zombie"
The most understated video on this list, "Zombie" is a shining example of the fact that you don't need fancy sets, costumes, or big budgets to make a stellar music video. The song articulates the feeling of living with depression, and the MV takes that goal and exceeds it, not only explaining the feeling, but helping the audience visualize it, too. The camerawork and editing aids us in this: we view the main character through a slightly-blurred lens, mirroring the way his own world is blurry and unfocused at the edges. We watch him walk through a city that is moving too fast for him, coupled with a low frame-rate and jerky camera movements that stir up a feeling of unease in the viewers' guts. This is amplified by the design elements of the video: its color palette of washed-out blues and greens, with equally dreary paintings of water on the walls of the character's house. At the climax of the video, the water motif comes to life, as the house itself begins to flood with the line, "Get it all out, want to cry."
The character's world is literally being consumed with the physical representation of his sadness, but the video ends showing the water halting just before drowning him, a slightly hopeful ending: he hasn't been drowned just yet, and maybe, just maybe, there'll still be a way out of this. While the fact that the main character is literally a zombie may illicit some laughs initially, this MV does a fantastic job of illustrating the world of someone struggling with depression in a singular and unflinching way.
  1. J.Y. Park & Sunmi: "When We Disco"
This is...a functionally flawless music video, if not the most adventurous, and probably the most accurate, fun, and campy entry into the never-ending cycle of retro concepts we've seen this year. A sequin-filled story of two star-crossed lovers that spans a decade of getting funky and seeing JYP yeeted in trashcans, it's hard to not crack a smile when watching. The aesthetics of the video are spot on; the costumes, sets, and lights lock us directly into the era, and the change in stylings (coupled with a simple-yet-effective old film effect) help articulate the flashback more clearly. The camerawork matches the style of the countless B-movie disco flicks of the era, a welcome change in a largely uncreative landscape when it comes to cinematography, and the editor throws in a few creative transitions as well. My only qualms? One, that it came out this year, the year of retro concepts, and two, the background actors...kind of suck. Just like, watch 'em for a little bit. You'll know what I mean.
  1. Stray Kids: "God's Menu"
You may notice a theme in these blurbs, in which I make reference to the boring camerawork/editing plaguing the K-pop industry at the moment. Well...thank you, Stray Kids, for giving me hope that all is not yet lost. I could honestly write you a thesis on the editing in this video, so I'll just link you to this professional MV editor I accidentally stumbled across when I was just grabbing the link to the video, who reviewed it himself and save both of us the trouble, but to add on some thoughts of my own—I...watch a lot of K-pop music videos, and when you watch as many as I do, a lot of them start blurring together, because the formula they follow is so copy-and-paste. So when I see music videos like "God's Menu," I get excited. Like, really excited. Not only is the editing impeccable, but the formula is completely shaken up and the concept itself (chefs?! scientists?! race car drivers?! hello?!) is a breath of fresh air. Which is great on a macro-level, but also fits the concept of the song itself: it's a song about creation and originality, and that's exactly what their director is channeling throughout the video.
  1. Sunmi: "pporappippam"
Sunmi is the only artist who appears twice on my list, and with good reason: her performances this year were outstanding, and the woman must be a fantastic director-magnet or something, because my goodness. I'm not sure where to begin. The aesthetics? Oh, the aesthetics. Not only are they cohesive, but they're an absolute feast to look at. This milky-rose landscape is stunning, and is the perfect juxtaposition to the meat of the video, which shows her vibrant nightlife in rich, saturated color while still maintaining the pink motif throughout (a subtle Marilyn Monroe reference?!) The editing is also engaging and unique, the film-roll effect being used almost as a form of set design in and of itself. It also does something I truly thought a MV could never do: a mid-video aspect ratio transition that not only works, but looks good. I literally cannot articulate to you how impressive that is. This is the only aspect ratio transition I have ever found to be fully justified in K-pop.
  1. Seventeen: "Home;run"
In a time void of almost all live musical theatre, Seventeen filled a void with "Home;run" that I didn't even realize I had buried within me. It's a blend of old Hollywood and Guys and Dolls aesthetics, and every element of the production design works towards cultivating it nearly flawlessly. The set and props design elements are of particular note for their specificity, from S.Coups' split-second appearance on a newspaper, to their debut date peeking in from a marquee, and the sweet fandom references. The storyline is wonderful as well—it's just prevalent enough to provide a driving force for the entire video, but loose enough that it allows for as many dance breaks or gangster fights as the guys desire. I also couldn't mention this MV without commenting on the performances of Seventeen themselves; they truly bring in that vibrant, over-the-top theatricality, whether it be during charismatic dance breaks, head-pain via flying projectiles, or Woozi with a baseball bat.
  1. Verivery: "Lay Back"
There are very few music videos on this Earth which are capable of simultaneously invoking a sense of primal fear, pure awe, and a desperate need to get down on the dance floor all at once. "Lay Back" is one of those music videos. Beginning with an unsettling sequence that shows a startled boy framed by the vanishing point of a musty hallway, only to squint and see himself walking towards him from the other end, we're struck with a sense of anxiety which is only emphasized by a shift to CCTV footage, giving the impression that whatever's happening is being controlled by some outside force. We see each member meet their double, and we have the feeling some massive confrontation is coming. And it does...in mirror dance battle form? The entire concept is just so crazy that it works, and it's bolstered by some pretty jaw-dropping editing and production design. This cool mirror effect gives us the impression of the members traveling between realities, and don't even get me started on this scene, which is absolutely gorgeous and ridiculously creative. While the "meeting your evil twin" concept isn't foreign to K-pop, Verivery manages to take a worn-out trope and make it feel new.
3. Winner: "Hold"
Never before has a music video captured the energy of a late-90s Disney channel sitcom so perfectly before Winner's "Hold." A bright and goofy music video about the Winner members as the protective older brothers of their little sister (played delightfully by soloist Lee Suhyun), every aspect it is over-the-top and borderline clownish, from members shoving themselves into decorated refrigerators, to them dressing as gangsters to scare off potential suitors, to the perfect depiction of siblings mocking each other in a sequence where the guys tease Suhyun about her date, complete with "twerking." It's a simple story, but it brings endless joy and hilarity, and it's brought to life further by the design elements, which drop us directly into a mid-90s household with their specificity. And the editing—which starts off sharp, but innocuous—escalates the video into an absurdist territory as the guys perform for their sister and her date in a fantasy realm. There was not a single other video quite like this one in K-pop this year, and I have to admit, seeing a wholesome sibling relationship portrayed on screen was quite a welcome and novel change.
2. Woodz: "파랑게 (Love Me Harder)"
Like Verivery's "Lay Back," "Love Me Harder," also centers around a case of serious split personality, but takes it in a totally different direction. It shows alter-ego Woodz, who will henceforth be known as Cool Woodz, continuously following around his other self (simply: Woodz) with an illegal amount of swagger as he tries and warns Woodz of a crime that's about to occur. Through a non-chronological storyline (that may take a couple pass-throughs to fully understand, but once you do, it clicks big time) that I wouldn't dare to spoil here, we get the absolute pleasure of watching Woodz perform in two completely dissonant, but equally engaging roles; it's amazing to see how distinct he's able to make both of his characters, with the only physical difference between them being a slightly different haircut, shown best in this scene, where we switch between Woodz and Cool Woodz in rapid succession and never lose track of who's who. The pacing of the video is driven by conservative but well-paced edits, and some equally subtle, but incredibly effective match-cuts and shadow shots up the anxiety levels to 10. I really don't want to spoil it, so I'll hold my tongue, but this music video shines most in its ability to take a relatively simple concept and elevate it through Woodz's performance (dare I say it...his duality), and some clean, smooth editing that shows that sometimes, less is really more.
1. B1A4: "Like a Movie"
But...sometimes...more is also more.
The basic conceit of this video is that we see each of the B1A4 members' struggles to woo the girls of their dreams, literally "rewriting" their mistakes mid-video to get that perfect happy ending for themselves. Simple enough in theory, but through editing and some pretty ingenious directing, we see the storyline played out in impossibly creative ways, such as here, which—in quite possibly my favorite sequence of the year—we see one member try and reach his date, but along the way he repeatedly fails in his task, respawning like a video game character each time he does, finally cracking the code a few scenes later. Or this even more absurd scene where another member's girlfriend is abducted by aliens as he proposes to her, only for him to force them to give her back soon after.
This isn't even touching on the aesthetics of the video. I've never seen another music video that looks quite like "Like a Movie" before. It's a wholly unique aesthetic in K-pop, and has some of the most singular and beautiful shots I've ever seen in a music video, whether it be a couple staring at each other from an apartment building in the clouds, this absolutely ridiculous shot of a couple dancing on a...well, you can look yourselves, or even just an incredibly well-framed shot of a guy in a bedroom. While the title of the song may be "Like a Movie," the music video is more like a dream, with a perfectly cultivated fantasy aesthetic that is present in everything from a table made of clouds to the pastel animal masks the backup dancers wear as they tap out the dreamy choreography, to the subtle editing touch of lights turning on in the hotel in time with the music. Every aspect of this music video oozes with creativity and vision, and it's a singular delight to be able to watch it.
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Final disclaimenote: I would like to quickly add that, funnily enough, I actually do not stan any of the groups in my Top 13, and do not have any predetermined biases/vendettas foagainst any artists. Out of the 100+ artists on this list, I only listen to around ~15 of them on a fairly regular basis, and I think my ult group just barely breaches the B-tier on my ranking. I would also again state that these are just my opinions, disagreements are welcome, and just because I ranked a video low does not mean your personal experience with enjoying it is invalid in any way.
Alright, if anyone is still reading—please share your thoughts! Where did we agree? Where did we disagree? What were your personal favorites?
submitted by brighterthanstar to kpopthoughts [link] [comments]

A two game sample of how batter contact & power affect AI pitcher aggression.

tl;dr: Yes, the quality of batter massively impacts how aggressively AI pitchers target the strike zone.
So after yesterday's post about how I lucked into beating the AI because it wouldn't throw strikes, I wondered whether that was a general AI tendency or if it was just because of the quality of hitters on that custom team I was playing.
Setup
So I did that for two more games with a different custom team. The first time I played the game with a team who's entire lineup had stats of 99 contact/powespeed/fielding/arm. The second time I adjusted those stats to be 0 contact/power and 99 speed/fielding/arm. I kept the defensive stats high to myself a chance to get into extra innings, though it became clear early in the second game that wouldn't be necessary.
Game setup:
Results
No screenshots this time because I just called off the first game in the 14th inning after 311 pitches, so there aren't in box scores, and I didn't see a point in showing the second game without the first game. You'll just have to take my word for it I guess. The results after a two game sample:
Team Innings Pitches Pitchers/9Innings Strikes (%) Balls (%) First Pitch Strike First Pitch Balls
0 Power, 0 Contact 9 104 104.00 81 (77.9%) 23 (22.1%) 24 3
99 Power, 99 Contact 14 311 199.93 141 (45.3%) 170 (54.7%) 29 29
You are seeing that correctly, a team that somehow had 99 powe99 contact can expect to see nearly double the number of pitches as a team with 0 powe0 contact without ever swinging the bat. They will also see twice the number of pitches outside the strike zone. The AI is pitches more aggressively to your worse hitters, and encourages your best hitters to be more patient. Over the 14 innings it was 39 strikeouts to 19 walks including two intentional walks to fill up first base and seek a righty-righty matchup. If a player with 99 powe99 contact never swung the bat you'd expect them to have an OBP of ~0.320.
One step further
Now let's do something a bit more in depth than all of this using some excel tools. On one end we have 0 powecontact getting 77.9% strikes, and on the other 99 powecontact getting 45.3% strikes. That's not representative of the majority of players in the game, though. Using the LINEST function in excel we can do a very basic linear regression between the two points. It produces a formula of %Strikes = -0.3293x(Power+Contact/2)+77.9
The average (power+contact)/2 of all players in the game is 48, the average (power+contact)/2 of all pitchers is 12, and the average (power+contact)/2 of all position players is 61. Let's use that formula to show what the expected number of strikes for those groups would be
(Power+Contact)/2 %Strikes
0 77.90
12 73.95
48 62.09
61 57.81
99 45.30
That the expected average number for all players in the game is 62.09% is pretty cool because the average number of strikes thrown in the big leagues is ~62%.
Final Takeways
The AI probably does an adequate job of attacking the strike zone. It doesn't really appear to adjust to trends in how you're batting, but does change its approach based on the batter's skill. Being selective about your pitches is helpful, but the best way to draw walks and get on base is to just have better hitters.
submitted by Squirrel_Dude to SuperMegaBaseball [link] [comments]

Looking at Barry Bonds card with the 2001 batting record (73 HR)...

...in the 108 plate appearances and 67 at bats, Barry's card has him getting on base over 60% of the time, a batting average over .400 and slugging well over 1.000. Those numbers are much higher than his real season results (IE: obp = 52%, avg = .328, slg = .863)
I realize that his card values get reduced over the course of a SOM simulated season because half the results will be taken from the pitcher's card.
Based on his real numbers how does SOM know how much to trump up is real values to equate to the value on his card in order for a simulation of his season to be realistic/accurate? Is there a formula to do that or is that SOM's "secret sauce" behind the accuracy of a hitter's season?
submitted by mydogsparty to StratOMatic [link] [comments]

ModiFluff creation process and genotypes. (By Twist3e)

Shortly after the Chimera Virus crisis The Fluffy Control centres of the newly founded Governor Warden cities found themselves innundated by the sheer volume of the number of Fluffies attempting to claim the cities for themselves, the outlying wastelands driving them into the Human strongholds in search of food, water and shelter. Initially, Human personnel alone were used to quell these invasions, however overtime it became apparent that FC operatives alone would not be enough to protect the cities from the encroaching infestations.
Fluffy Control operatives found themselves overwhelmed and working around the clock to cull the Fluffy population, becoming exhausted and demoralized. Therefore it became paramount that the FCs were supplemented with additional support in order to be able to fulfill their quotas and mandates.
Multiple approaches were considered and executed, the defensive walls known as 'Trenches' were constructed in strategic locations around the Governor Warden cities, in order to filter smaller numbers into the cities, this method had to be employed as walls themselves proved to be too costly to both man and maintain, mechanical measures were devised and implemented, such as the 'Foals for nummies' machine, however, problems arose with both maintainence and overall effectiveness overtime.
In time the solution became obvious, the Fluffies themselves, the most abundant resource available.
Within every Fluffy exists a chimeric blueprint that comprises their genetic structure, while a baseline Fluffy alone is little more than a nuisance in terms of individual capacity for the ability to cause physical harm, the DNA of the creatures that were combined in order to create them contains far greater potential.
In order to create a ModiFluff, A Fluffy must be taken from a juvenile stage (the 'walkie-talkie' stage as it is referred to by the Fluffy mothers) and immediately place into a sensory deprivation chamber, a 'Foal Hole' as they are commonly referred to. The Foal hole requires two Foals to be effective, as a mental deconstructing is required alongside the physical deconstruction.
Within the 'Foal hole' it is expected for the two foals to both befriend each other and comfort each other, this relationship is paramount to the mental restructuring that will occur later. They will find patches of Fluffy blood within the hole and will usually begin to imbibe it as hunger sets in. Overtime the Foals physiology will change in accordance with their development, in order to allow them to digest the blood their bodies will begin the preliminary modification and express their usually dormant predator genes. This initial, minor mutation is only possible in the early stages of a Foal's life, fully grown Fluffies cannot be used in this process.
The first stage will end invariably with the death of one of the Foals, it is then expected that the remaining Foal will then consume the flesh of the deceased or die, thus cementing the Foal's perception of itself as a 'Munstah' and preparing the Foal's body for the modification process. At this point the Foal must immediately be removed from the hole.
Once removed, a post hole interview must be conducted by the one who placed them within who is to become their 'Handler'. Any measures may be taken by the ModiFluff handler but they must end the interview with a confirmation that the Foal is now identifying itself as a 'Munstah'. This is to be encouraged, as this fosters a detachment from the rest of the Fluffy species in the Foal.
Once it has been confirmed, the Foal is to be taken for Modification immediately. Five injections of catalyst solution are to administered to the Foal, the first always being a direct infusion to the heart to begin the process. The rest evenly distributed across the body.
The Foal will then enter a state of delirium as its body undergoes mutation, having consumed Fluffy tissues the body will now believe itself to be one of a number of potential predators within its genetics and will now begin the process of mutation in order to express the most prominent genes within the Fluffies genetic make up.
The process can take any time between a week to a month, the Fluffies DNA will reconstruct itself from the unstable state brought on by the first stage of modification, as it metabolizes the catalyst solution, it is during this process that the final outcome will be predictable. Fluffies commonly experience a great deal of REM during this stage of modification as they drift in and out of consciousness.
Once the process is complete, the newly formed ModiFluff will be ready to be collected by their appointed handler, it is imperative that the handler comes for them as soon as possible if they are unable to be there when they wake up, as the early stages of awakening are the best time to imprint bonds and trust with them.
From this point on the handler is expected to spend as much time as possible with their ModiFluff, at this stage the ModiFluff is feeling disconnected from thier original identity and requires guidance to become an effective piece of equipment and develop their new identity. A successful Handler will teach their charges how to hunt, challenge them to improve themselves and instill an undying loyalty within them.
Once sufficiently trained, the final test is to give the ModiFluff a 'live' meal of a Foal. This final test will cement the ModiFluff's self perception of being a 'Munstah' and effectively sever any lingering ties to its race and former self and it is now ready to work alongside its handler.
MODIFLUFF GENOTYPES
Fluffy dog, CanisFluff- A common genotype form, as the name implies this form resembles a dog, the CanisFluff is exceptionally loyal and steadfast to their Handler, they have sharp teeth and a powerful bite, they are also curious and fun loving and have an insatiable appetite for Foal meat. When hunting they chase down their prey with superior speed and tear them apart with violent savaging actions. A handler must be affectionate and engaged with their FluffHound, as a FluffHound can become easily depressed if they are ignored or understimulated. CanisFluffs often develop and obsession for their handlers, which can often develop into jealousy or protectiveness. They are always eager to please their handlers.
Puffy Griffin- A peculiar, yet still common genotype form, the catalyst solution has expressed both the feline and avian aspects of the Fluffy and created a strange parody of the mythical griffin. Puffies, surprisingly, are actually capable of flight despite the seemingly unbalanced nature of their bodies. They typically have a stoic, superior air about them, reminiscent of the Feline and Avian counterparts, they consume their Foal prey whole and when hunting they fly overhead and divebomb their targets to slash at them with their talons, they are even capable of lifting up smaller Fluffies and drop them from a height to kill them. Puffy Griffins are fairly independent and often refuse to remain with their handler unless they have a well formed connection, therefore Aeries are constructed throughout the cities to house them while they are not hunting. They are capable of speech, but often do not employ the ability, instead they usually squawk or coo, in the rare instances when they do speak they no longer have a unique voice, they instead mimic the voices of other creatures, similar to a Parrot or a Raven.
Fluffy Snake 'FluffSnek'- A rare varient, The FluffSnek is a strange genotype form that stretches out the Fluffy's body, Fluff Sneks are sedate, low energy ModiFluffs that are no longer capable of speech, they are useful for sliding into compact areas and flushing out hidden Fluffies. Fluff Sneks are capable of performing constrictions, administering a venomous bite or even spitting venom, they typically swallow their prey whole and only require feeding around once a week. Due to their now reptilian nature, FluffSneks are cold blooded, they enjoy seeking out hot spots to bask in and despise cold weather, even going so far as to enter a hibernative state in the winter season. FluffSneks like to leech on their Handlers body warmth and typically ride on their handler, usually looping themselves around the neck or concealing themselves under their clothes. Since FluffSneks are not capable of speech they must communicate using other methods, such as blinking, hissing or squeezing. One enterprising handler even succeeded in teaching their FluffSnek rudimentary sign language and later go on to design a collar-mounted voice synthesizer that detected the movements of the now ineffective vocal cords and translated them into understandable language.
BullFluff/Fluffalo- The BullFluff or Fluffalo is a rare genotype, horned and muscular, it resembles a small mountain of muscle. Fluffalos are not carnivorous, however they can be taught to dislike Fluffies for the impact they have on the environment, which in turn deprives the Fluffalo of food. Fluffalos are stoic and quiet, and their droppings can be made into extremely potent fertilzer. They do not 'hunt' as other ModiFluffs do but are capable of crushing a baseline Fluffy easily with their muscualar frame. BullFluffs can typically reach a height of three feet in stature, making them one of the larger variants.
FluffRaptor- The FluffRaptor is an exceptionally rare genotype, resembling something similar to a dinosaur, thus sparking rumours that Fluffies were partially created with DNA derived from palaeontology digs (A rumour I can neither confirm or deny). The FluffRaptor is a compact, powerful hunter with two muscular legs and a powerful maw, they are not capable of speech and instead screech or roar. Befriending a FluffRaptor is difficult as they appear to suffer from some mental degredation, a Handler must instead dominate them, installing themselves as a 'pack leader'. An instance has been noted of an operative with homunculism using a FluffRaptor as a mount, riding their ModiFluff and chasing down Fluffies with startling proficiency and efficiency.
UTERINE MODIFLUFF GENOTYPES
In my studies and experimentation with catalyst solution I discovered that applying the Formula to the unborn Foetus of a Fluffy can fundamentally alter the genetic structure of what will come out, effectively creating an entirely new species. While these genotypes are still derived from Fluffies they possess far greater potential in terms of intelligence and strength, on occasion even rivalling humans. The creation of a 'Uterine' ModiFluff, involves injecting catalyst solution directly into one of the forming Fluffy foetuses within a pregnant Mare, once done, the other Foetuses will be absorbed into the modified Foetus, adding their biomass to the overall creature and vastly extending the pregnancy time of the Mother. Overtime the Mother will be gradually consumed as the ModiFluff grows within its womb, around the clock feeding and bowel evacuation is required during this stage as the ModiFluff is grown, lest it completely devour the nutrients of its host and kill itself in the process. Once the ModiFluff reaches full term, a live dissection cesarean must be performed to remove the offspring, unfortunately the recipient of the dissection cesarean must be live to ensure a proper 'birth', attempts to euthanise the host beforehand resulted in the deaths of the ModiFluff. Once removed, the Uterine ModiFluff must be cared for immediately, as they possess a somewhat longer maturation time compared to baseline Fluffies, a byproduct of their greatly extended life time.
Fluffy Satyr- The Fluffy Satyr genotype is a ModiFluff with the Humanity aspect of its genetic structure fully expressed, Satyrs exhibit heightened levels of intelligence and strength compared to their Fluffy counterparts and are useful for simple work. Like their namesake, Fluffy Satyrs resemble Humans closely, but still retain a good deal of their originally intended visage, their ears droop from the sides of their head, can be moved and often display the Saytr's current emotive state, thus making it almost impossible for them to be able to lie. Satyrs, like Fluffies have tails and hooves that walk upright on, but they instead possess a hard, keratine hoof, far more suitable than the soft, leathery hooves of a baseline Fluffy, fur grows from the hooves to just below the knees. Satyrs have dextrous hands, but they lack a fourth finger, this does not greatly affect their capability. Satyr hair and eyes comes in the variety that Fluffies are capable of, some even achieving tones of purple or pink. Attempts to use Fluffy Satyrs in FC operations met with failure, as it turns out they have far greater empathy than even some Humans and they do not like to cause harm to others, instead choosing to help and support them as best they can. Ironic that they seem to possess a greater level of humanity than a good deal of Mankind.
'Stunted' Fluffy Satyr- The stunted form of a Fluffy Satyr will peak at a height of around three to four foot in height, they closely resemble human children and will always do so, this version of the Fluffy Satyr is often used for farm work, as they possess high levels of energy and are easily controlled, due to their cowardly nature and lowered strength, unfortunately stunted Satyrs possess a fundamental flaw in their genetics, which can lead to a degredation in their bodies and make them enter a weakened state, fortunately this can be offset through the consumption of Fluffy meat, rejuvenating them with its hormones and proteins.
'Full grown' Fluffy Satyr- Full growns Satyrs can be created through the ModiFluff process by adding the DNA of a Human to the blood of subject [--REDACTED--]. The resultant solution can then be added to catalyst solution and injected into the unborn foetus. A full grown Satyr will closely resemble whoever the DNA was harvested from, but will not possess and memory or personality of the donor. Full growns do not possess the flaw that causes the stunted Satyr's need to consume Fluffy flesh, in fact they seem to have an aversion to it, suffering from nauseua if it is presented to them. Full growns can reach a height of five to six foot and usually have a more mature visage compared to their stunted counterparts, their strength and intelligence is far higher too, but not enough to rival a humans. Full growns can be trusted to perform more complex tasks and following a suitable education are often used as assistants in offices and businesses.
AnthroFluff- AnthroFluffs are strange, skewed versions of Satyrs, I believe them to be what occurs when the solution fails to fully express the Human traits, resulting in a peculiar hybrid that still possesses a great deal of the original Fluffy traits (at this time I am unsure as to what causes the phenomenon of this failure.) AnthroFluffs, like Full Grown Satyrs, lack the genetic flaw of Stunted Satyrs, possess an anthropomorphized body and walk upright on two hooves and possess hands, and reach a height of five to six foot, but their entire body is still covered in fur and their faces resemble a Fluffy's more closely than a Humans. But most notably is their mental state, they are far more like Fluffies than any other ModiFluff genotype, just placed within a vastly different vessel. AnthroFluffs are mischievous and unsuitable for work, unable to focus on such things, instead wanting to only fulfill their desires by any means necessary, their intelligence is heightened, but hidden behind a veneer of Fluffspeak and childish impudence. Once mature, they are highly sexual and frequently crave 'good feews'. Due to this sexual nature coupled with the 'uncanny valley' nature of their appearance they often make most people extremely uncomfortable. Investigation into the potential uses of AnthroFluffs is ongoing, but it is believed that they could be used as a mature version of the Fluffy Pony biotoy pet in the event of the world stabilizing and returning to a pre chimera state. However further research is required to quell their oversexualized nature, perhaps hormone therapy can be used to offset these traits, or enhance them.
Minotaur AnthroFluff- This variant of the Uterine AnthroFluff was a peculiar and highly dangerous genotype, the Minotaur AnthroFluff was similar to its counterpart but exhibited additional traits such as horns and heightened muscle mass alongside intense aggression, like Farm Satyrs and the Minotaurs of greek legend, this ModiFluff craved meat for its development and was fed on a strict diet of Fluffy tissue, devouring up to four Fluffies in a day. Initially, it was believed that the Minotaur would be an effective Fluffy Hunter, however, as it reached maturity, this hunger was replaced by an even deeper craving, one for the flesh of other ModiFluffs, particularly for Uterine ModiFluffs. The Minotaur AnthroFluff was a dangerous individual and was required to be kept in isolation, as its strength rivalled a Human's easily and could even peak it when enraged, after a time it was deemed too costly and dangerous to keep on site and scheduled for termination, it was removed from FC404 at the behest of myself and Governor Warden Mercy and removed to a detention centre to be contained, examined, researched and disposed of safely. The Minotaur was a creature of around six foot in height when slouched and seven foot when standing up straight, its skin was coated in a layer of thin brown fur and it possessed startling reserves of power and stamina, had it been controllable it would have been an excellent Fluffy hunter given its natural physical prowess and hunger for Fluffy meat, but after its maturation it became completely unruly, ongoing research hopes to perfect this genotype for use in the future, if the Fluffy Minotaurs could be tamed they could be extremely useful.
Subject 1N [--REDACTED--]- [--ENTRY REDACTED--]
ZOANFLUFFS
The ZoanFluffs seen during the attack on New Cleveland were a strange breed, the true nature of their mutation is strictly classified. The ZoanFluffs appear to be similar to ModiFluffs but far stronger, some even capable of taking down full grown humans. The sheer extent to the mutations available to the ZoanFluffs have yet to reached by FC ModiFluff cultivators, strangely there are several forms that have never been produced by catalyst solution, suggesting that an intelligence of some description is behind the designs. ZoanFluffs are capable of reaching sizes far beyond their original baseline Fluffy form, how this is possible and how it can be done is such a short time has yet to be discovered. ZoanFluffs hardly resemble the Fluffies they once were, the only indication of what they once were being the residual Fluffy babble when they speak. At this time it is believed that the ZoanFluffs were all killed during the attack on New Cleveland.
Ursine- These large ZoanFluffs resemble enormous, muscular bears. Their muscle mass has increased so exponentionally it has torn their skin open in places, revealing the powerful muscles underneath. The Ursine has a large maw with a powerful bite, capable of crushing bone and even metal. Their original hooves have broken apart and become vicious claws, capable of slashing and grabbing. Ursine were reported to have overpowered their victims, using both their strength and weight to overwhelm them and pull them down, leaving them at their mercy to bite and slash to pieces. The Ursine ZoanFluffs reportedly had a hunger for human flesh and a sexual appetite, proving to be downright peverse. Ursines are strong but appear to have trouble multitasking in altercations, reports say that they were taken down most easily by attaacking them from multiple angles, one on one proved to be fatal for the Human or ModiFluff in most cases.
Vespine- These ZoanFluffs were reminiscent in appearance to overgrown vampire Bats, it is believed that this form is a recessive holdover from HASBIO's attempts to produce a 'Bat Pony' varient in the original line of Fluffy Ponies, The Vespines have lost a great deal of their former Fluffy form and are blind, compensating for this loss sense with heightened senses of smell and hearing. Vespine have wings and are capable of flight, similar to Puffies, however their wings are not limbs of their own, but rather flaps of skin connected to their front and rear legs. Their rear legs have claws and they can use them to grab hold of their victims and pull them into the air, or use them to hang upside down. The Vespines seem to have a taste for blood and are capable of sensing it through scent alone, in combat they determine the location of their quarry through a combination of scent and hearing, they also seem to detect their current location and their immediate surroundings through a form of rudimentary echo location. One individual managed to confuse them by spreading blood and remaining silent, thus nullifying their senses.
Leo- The Leo was a large, agile varient of ZoanFluff, somewhat resembling a large, predatory cat. Leos were reported to be eager, independent hunters and stalked their victims throughout the alleys of the city. They ambushed their targets and would attempt to bite weak spots to incapacitate and devour them. The Leos all appeared to have somewhat of a mean streak, revelling in the bloodshed of each kill they exacted. The Leos were also adept climbers, capable of climbing and jumping down from great heights that would harm other creatures of various sizes. However they appeared to be too focused on the kill, failing to see other dangers as they eagerly attempted to land fatal attacks. They were weaker than the Ursines and more or less stood on equal footing to the average Human. Therefore they relied on stalking and ambush strategies, striking when the prey least expected it, when tired or wounded.
Bovine- The only Bovine seen in New Cleveland was an individual known as 'Aurochs', Aurochs was an exceptionally large ZoanFluff, similar to a giant Bull in appearance. Aurochs was extremely strong, even for a ZoanFluff's standards. Aurochs had enormous horns, which appeared to be capable of growing back in a short period. In combat Aurochs employed charges and stomps, crushing his opponents with his massive weight alone. Aurochs, unlike other ZoanFluffs seemed to not possess the bloodlust the others displayed and far more capable of rational thought, it is believed that is is due to the herbaceous nature of the creature he resembled. For Aurochs' service to New Cleveland he has been named a citizen of Ohio, and is therefore subject to all the rights and protections of a citizen of the USA, harming him or his properties is rightly considered a crime.
Alcine- The Alcines were reminscent of large Elk deer, they had large antlers, hardened hooves and a surprising level of strength. They employed similar tactics like that of the Bovine varient. However they appeared to suffer from a fundamental flaw and were easily taken down by several FC personnel, it is believed that they were not suitable for combat and had another kind of role outside the invasion.
CattleSnake- A mysterious creature that seemed to be an amalgamation of feline and serpent genetics, the creature that called itself Felubra was one of a kind, it claimed to have a connection to the overall network that linked the ZoanFluffs together. Felubra had the body of a housecat, but also had a strange addition of serpentine body melded into it, like a snake sunk into a cat, Felubra had a venomous bite, could spit venom and constrict objects and people with its rattle tail. At the clima of the invasion Felubra mutated, becoming a strange parody of a chimera, fortunately it was killed, felled by a brave ModiFluff, slain by its own venom. However, it somehow managed to continue on, despite its brain being reduced to a venomous protein sludge, fortunately after the events that transpired in SkettiLand it reportedly collapsed, finally dead.
With the advent of ModiFluffs and their partnerships withe handlers, the FCs were able to rally their efforts and push back the Fluffy intrusions, at this time the Wardens cities have achieved a delicate balance.
This list will be modified as new ModiFluff genotypes are discovered and researched.
-Dr Michael Bendall-
submitted by Twist3e to fluffycommunity [link] [comments]

I went through the footage provided by u/atadams and tried to determine what the result would be if all cheating-assisted plays were taken away from the Astros during the 2017 regular season

I went through the footage provided by u/atadams and tried to determine what the result would be if all cheating-assisted plays were taken away from the Astros during the 2017 regular season

I wanted to see what would happen if we took away all of the positive gained plays that were assisted by the cheating tactic we all now colloquially refer to as “banging.” I watched through all the footage that consisted of banging as well as a net-positive outcome for the Astros and tallied what all should be taken away. This INCLUDES fastballs that did not receive a “bang” during an at-bat that had bangs for the off-speed pitches. There were also a few plays I subtracted from where a batter takes advantage of an early fast ball after an at-bat that contained bangs. This included taking away plays such as where base runners who did NOT receive banging help, but were driven in to score by a batter who was helped, as well as the opposite situation where a batter who was not helped may have driven in those on base who cheated to get there – those runs and RBI’s would be taken away.

A few disclaimers:
These statistics, findings, and opinions – are based on the effect of banging on trash cans. I did not take into account whistling, buzzing, and whatnot – as there is no data on that. This analysis was done on the notion of analyzing at-bat performance against trash can banging, or whatever they were beating on.
I did not track stolen bases. It was enough to watch/listen/verify all the at-bats, so I did not bother to track stolen base metrics.
I did not watch through the at-bats that had bangs and resulted in an out with nobody on base, as there is no point. I did watch through at-bats that resulted in an out, but had base runners move and took that into consideration when removing stats.
There were a FEW (less than ten) cases where the batter received help on an AB, but the help did not matter as the pitcher was way off the mound on fastballs and it led to a walk. These plays I did not deduct. Once again, there were very few of these compared to the balls-on-base that WERE taken away during this analysis.
There was only one case where the batter received help and got a hit – but I let it stand. This was an at-bat between Evan Gattis and Ervin Santana on July 15th, in which I thought Santana threw cake right over the plate (he was 100 pitches deep) that just about any major league batter would have hit.
There was one case I found where a bang that was not recorded, which clearly was a bang, resulted in a home run. This went to George Springer and I took it away from him. I’m sure there were more bangs that could not get picked up by the mics, so you can assume some form of variance.
Keep in mind, the dataset provided by u/atadams is still missing 20 additional games that are not factored into these numbers.

Findings on the banging scheme while going through the film:
Through early May, the sign stealing system was in its infancy. Often it seemed like the relay (should read “banging”) team had the wrong sign, and really may have negatively affected the batter.
By mid-to-late July, the relay team had it down and the banging was in full-force. There were plenty of at-bats that were perfectly assisted by the relay team down to the 1 bang, 2 bang and their respective pitch. These were the games that documented upwards of 40+ bangs in a game. They truly are hard to watch.
The banging became more and more audible as the season went on. By early August it was like they weren’t even trying to hide it anymore. As an Astros fan, it even got me a little sick at times of how blatant they were cheating and how casual they were about it.
The banging did not always correlate to off-speed. The relay team, at times, would bang for a fastball as opposed to the off-speed pitch, depending who was at-bat. An example of this was Josh Reddick who is known to prefer off-speed pitches.
All of the top 20 batters for the Astros during the 2017 season, minus Tony Kemp, benefited from the sign-stealing system.
Jose Altuve participated in the banging scheme, early into the season, but was rarely helped after the All-Star break. It seems clear that at some point, Altuve preferred to not receive help via banging – the reason of which is unclear. Some may say he shifted to some other form of cheating, and others will proclaim his innocence. I’m staying out of this one.
If there was another player who seemed to disfavor the banging scheme, it was Josh Reddick. Although Reddick did receive his share of help at the plate - during the same stretch Altuve stopped receiving help, Reddick also trended in the same bang-free direction. Reddick’s help did ramp up again closer to season’s end as he went through a batting slump.
I also really just wanted to plug-in, that for as many bangs that Brian McCann got, he did not see that great of a return for it.

Here are the charts in which I tallied the “new” (taken away) stats, compared it to the old (official) stats, and showed the change in difference to each stat. Personally, I want to refrain from making personal judgement and sharing my opinion and let you draw your own conclusions based on the numbers. These original stats came from baseball-rerference.com, and all the advanced stats are locked into the correct formulas. For the conditional filters, I made red the higher number to represent who was the worse offender per stat.

https://preview.redd.it/jxvzall80ge41.png?width=623&format=png&auto=webp&s=3537dab490dea342bf23a651c2a1c2c72710d071
https://preview.redd.it/hxgkrn8xzfe41.png?width=696&format=png&auto=webp&s=73c59b0d24ffbb9473c6626e59804c46623baefa
https://preview.redd.it/51olo48j0ge41.png?width=690&format=png&auto=webp&s=4000da8ff9bb70313e750803b844d5accd5b33fb
https://preview.redd.it/5g5gjqmn0ge41.png?width=521&format=png&auto=webp&s=15a472a86ad0d5afb77644e9b44237774cb8f876
Note: this list features what I saw as the “main” line-up for the Houston Astros. I removed individuals who cheated but had low at-bats, as it skewed the colored formatting too drastically with the smaller sample size of at-bats.

Further on, past the individual statistics – there were certainly games that the outcome of which was affected by cheating. Here are the games that based on the runs that would be taken away, would change the outcome of the game to an outright loss for the Astros.
May 2nd vs. Texas Rangers: 7-6
May 10th vs. Atlanta Braves: 2-1
July 1st vs. New York Yankees: 6-2
July 17th vs. Minnesota Twins: 3-2
July 31st vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 7-6
August 4th vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 7-6
August 6th vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 6-1
September 3rd vs. New York Mets: 6-5
September 20th vs. Chicago White Sox: 3-1

This would be a total of 9 wins taken away from the Astros, bringing them down to a total of 92. But how much would this affect them? Even with these 9 wins wiped out, it would take at least 12 more losses from the 20 games of footage we are missing of, for the Los Angeles Angels to catch the Astros for the division title. So, who ultimately lost out here?
The Boston Red Sox. If the Astros fell to 92 wins, this would have reseeded them in the #3 spot in the 2017 playoffs and given the home field advantage of the ALDS to the Red Sox. Now, would this have affected the outcome of the ALDS? Hard to call. The Astros had great outings by Verlander and Kuechel in the ALDS, and proved they could win at Fenway by closing the series out in Game 4 while facing Chris Sale.
If the Astros got out of an ALDS series that saw the Boston Red Sox with home field advantage, the rest of the 2017 postseason could theoretically continue as it was written. The Astros would still have had home field advantage against the Yankees in the ALCS, and the Dodgers would still have home field in the World Series. My question is, if the Boston Red Sox still split the first two games at home, could they have mustered a win in Houston knowing they could have had returned to Fenway for a do-or-die Game 5 – and even then, would they be able to win that game?
A distant second-place prize for the next-most team to get screwed over in the win-loss column, goes to the Toronto Blue Jays – who could claim two losses from the Astros banging scandal. Marcus Stroman already tweeted his frustration upon recollection of the game and the breaking of the news, and after watching the game – he had a damn good reason to.

Let’s cover the individual pitchers who got screwed over from this. There are a few categories I break this into:
First, let’s look at the “you cost me my job” pitchers:
  1. Cesar Valdez – A’s and Blue Jays
Cesar Valdez had the unfortunate fate of facing the Astros twice in their dome, with two different teams. First with the A's on April 28th, and then with the Blue Jays on August 4th. Both times, he was shelled by the Astros and didn't last more than four innings. His start on August 4th, 2017 was his last appearance in the majors. Valdez has since seen success in the Mexican League, where he spent his time after his first tenure in the MLB in 2010.
  1. A.J. Griffin – Rangers
The Astros cheated during their first game against Griffin on May 4th. While there is no current footage of his other appearance at Minute Maid Park on September 26th, Griffin was pulled out after only getting through 0.1 inning, surrendering 5 hits and 5 runs in what would also be his last appearance in the majors. Again there is no footage, but the implications are pretty heavy. Griffin would go on to sign a minor league deal with the Mets in 2018, but was waived after two awful Triple-A starts and hasn’t pitched since.
  1. Mike Bolsinger – Blue Jays
Perhaps ironically, Bolsinger came in for relief on behalf of Cesar Valdez, and left with a similar outcome. This became Bolsinger’s last game in the majors. He was demoted to Triple-A for the rest of 2017, and in the following off-season he went to play in Japan where he still is today.
  1. Josh Smith – A’s
A distant fourth, Smith got sent to the minors after his rough outing on June 28th in a relief appearance. He did return to the A’s active roster a month later.

Second, I had to make a category for one pitcher who I really think got screwed:
  1. Patrick Corbin – Diamondbacks
If not for the banging, I believe Patrick Corbin may have recorded his first and only career no-hitter on his start in Minute Maid on August 17th. All the hits he gave up in the game included assists from banging, with the exception of one hit from Jake Marisnick – but that hit came from an early fastball that Marisnick very well may have known was coming, given that he was getting help earlier in the game.

Last, pitchers who were affected and suffered various outcomes such as taking a loss, blown save, or uncharacteristically giving up a ton of hits/bases – and the date of that appearance.
  1. Jaime Garcia – Braves – May 10th
  2. Aroldis Chapman – Yankees – July 1st
  3. Dellin Betances – Yankees – July 1st
  4. Kyle Gibson – Twins – July 16th
  5. James Paxton – Mariners – July 19th and September 15th
  6. Alex Cobb – Rays – July 31st
  7. Marcus Stroman – Blue Jays – August 6th
  8. Roberto Osuna – Blue Jays – August 6th
  9. Chris Flexen – Mets – September 3rd

And of course, there is Aaron Judge. The argument still looms for Aaron Judge’s MVP case, and while to Altuve’s credit of cheating the least (relatively), the RBIs that would be taken away from his cheating teammates might be enough to cover that gap voters may have had. Voters may still point to the gap in batting average, but the drop in Altuve’s OPS from .957 to .938 might be something that would be considered as well.
On the topic of the All-Star game and if this would have affected All-Star appearances, I don’t think so. Like I said earlier, the cheating really ramped up in mid-to-late July – after the All-Star break. If anything, perhaps Springer and Correa would not be All-Star Starters, but I couldn’t see them missing the All-Star roster even with the stats pulled pre-All-Star game.
To wrap up, once again - I only did this analysis to cover the effects of the sign-stealing scandal in the regular season and seeing what would happen if these stats were taken away retroactively to the teams and the individuals. I do not want to cover if the Astros would have beaten the Yankees or Dodgers in the 2017 playoffs because that is a completely different story. The next question I could anticipate coming, is if I could provide the log of every play/AB I tallied. I might make that available, but by August – I stopped making written notes on each cheating instance and just made tallies, because there really was no explanation needed.
Hope this doesn’t get removed by mods. Thanks and all feedback appreciated.
EDIT: Thank you for all the awards, karma, and kind words!
submitted by iAmUbik to baseball [link] [comments]

How can England regain the Ashes in 2021/22?

Full disclosure. I am Australian. I’m a huge fan of Australian cricket and hate the idea of losing the Ashes like every Aussie should.
However, I spent 2019 in England and watched the full Ashes series either live at the ground or on TV. I definitely feel like I noticed so much more about the strengths and weaknesses of the England team, watching them in their home conditions, compared to usually only watching a session or two in a day before it’s a ridiculous hour of the night when back in Aus.
It took Australia 18 years to get their formula right to bring the urn back with them after a trip to English soil. England have had two disastrous trips to Australia since their 2010/11 triumph, a combined 9-0 defeat from the 10 most recent tests in Aus.
It’s a long way away I know. But here are my thoughts on how England can beat Australia in Australia in 2020/21
  1. BRING THE HEAT - MARK WOOD MUST PLAY
England’s fundamental flaw in their previous two series in Australia has been their toothless bowling attack. They have lacked any bowlers with enough pace to trouble the Australian top six, especially when the conditions are not conducive to a lot of seam or swing.
It goes without saying that Jofra Archer is a rising star of Test cricket. He bowled some extraordinarily quick spells at the Aussies in 2019 with the now infamous one at Lords where he struck Steve Smith. Jofra has played BBL in Australia, can bowl long spells and has control. He is a walk up start and will be critical in order to rattle Australia’s established trifecta of Warner, Labuschagne and Smith.
I know that’s an obvious point. If fit, Jofra is a certain starter in the first test at Brisbane 2021.
The more important point is this: Mark Wood MUST be there also if England want to win. Wood and Archer together on Australian pitches is an exciting prospect, and would provide the point of difference England need to take 20 Australian wickets required to win a Test match. Brisbane and Perth will suit them both beautifully. In Adelaide and Melbourne, their extra pace is going to be a huge factor in extracting something out of the more docile pitches.
England need both of them to win.
  1. LEAVE JIMMY OUT
I’m going to shoot Bambi here so look away now if you’re firmly in the pro-Jimmy camp.
Anderson recently hinted on social media that both he and Broad are targeting a final Ashes tour in 2021/22, which looms as a career swan song for definitely Anderson, and likely both of them.
The thing I found spending time in England is that English supporters have very rosy red glasses on when they talk about Anderson. He’s their golden boy, their highest wicket taker, and you’ll be shouted down if you suggest he’s anything other than one of the greatest ever. And in home conditions, I absolutely agree.
But let’s be honest here. Compare his statistics to any of the other modern greats - McGrath, Steyn etc - and Anderson sits at least one rung below them. Plus his record in Australia is very ordinary.
His 2013/14 series yielded just 14 wickets at an average of 43 and a strike rate of 81. The next trip to Aus in 2017/18 saw him collect 17 wickets, six of which came in the day/night Test in Adelaide. He averaged 27 for the tour and was more economical than the previous, but his strike rate was still a whopping 78.
That’s just 31 wickets in his previous 10 tests in the hot Australian sun. Jimmy will be 39 years of age when the next Ashes series rolls around. His very best is behind him, and it’s hard to see how he could possibly improve on those numbers on another tour.
England can not possibly expect to win in Australia if Anderson plays any more than ONE Test. The one and only Test he should be considered for is the Day/Night Test in Adelaide. That is it. He is suited to the pink ball and the added swing and seam that comes with the twilight/night conditions. And it shouldn’t matter if he took a 5-fa in both innings in that Adelaide Test. You can not pick him for the following Test in Perth where the conditions just don’t suit him, plain and simple.
However, if Anderson does decide that the 2021/22 Ashes will be his final Tests before retirement, I don’t think the ECB will be strong enough to leave him out of the side. There will be much hype about his retirement on English shores, and dropping him on his farewell tour would outrage the English public. It even has the potential to fracture the dressing room if not handled correctly, with all players needing to be on the same page.
But, the point is clear. England need to adopt a ‘horses for courses’ selection attitude and receive a buy-in to the ideology from the entire touring squad if they want the little urn back. And Jimmy isn’t the man for the job.
  1. PICK YOUR BEST WICKETKEEPER
This one is hardly revolutionary and seems to be a pretty commonly held belief amongst the English cricketing public.
England have chopped and changed between Jonny Bairstow and Jos Buttler for their wicketkeeping duties, with both unable to really cement their position with any consistent performances with the bat in recent times.
Watching Buttler pretty closely in 2019, my personal view is that if he’s not wicketkeeping, he’s shouldn’t be in the team. His batting is unreliable, loose at times, and he just doesn’t seem to take the Test arena by the scruff of the neck like he can in limited overs cricket. Australia’s pace battery will lick their lips if Buttler is selected regardless, and it’s suicidal for England if it’s purely as a batsman.
England just need to pick their best wicketkeeper.
If that’s Buttler - fine - his batting average of 30 is serviceable if he’s the best wicketkeeper in the country.
Similarly, if the best keeper is Bairstow - great - his batting has a slight edge over Buttler for mine, plus he has a century to his name on Australian shores.
Ben Foakes seems to be highly rated among English cricket fans, and many suggested to me that he’s the best keeper. I haven’t seen enough of him to judge him. But if he’s your best keeper, that’s his primary role, and he should play.
It’s unrealistic to try and get these guys to contribute the runs of a top 6 batsman while also donning the gloves. Guys like Gilchrist are hard to find - reminder that Australia haven’t found one since. A solid top six with a contribution from the keeper needs to be the English blueprint to win back the urn.
  1. FIND A NUMBER 3 BATSMAN
Joe Denly isn’t the answer. An average of 31 batting at number 3 for the 2019 Ashes series spells danger if he was to travel to Australia in the same role.
By 2021/22 I think two of Burns, Sibley and Crawley will have emerged as an opening pairing and be solid enough to make meaningful contributions for England. It will be interesting to see who cements those opening positions.
But the question of a number three is proving difficult. Even Australia haven’t had a really consistent and solid number three until the emergence of Labuschagne, but in 2017/18 Usman Khawaja managed 333 runs including a top score of 171 and two other half centuries.
My point being, England don’t need to find a Joe Root clone to bat at 3. They just need to find someone who can make a valuable contribution, as Khawaja did in 2017/18.
Joe Denly doesn’t fill me with that confidence. Some tinkering required for England here in the 18 months lead up.
  1. OPERATION: EXPLOIT STARC
This will be tough, no doubt. But Starc is the weakest link in a pace battery that is scarily good when all on song. That is, he is not weak, but the weakest.
Mitchell Starc has the most obvious weakness compared to Cummins, Hazlewood and Pattinson - he can spray it everywhere when he’s not firing.
This is the blueprint: restrict his wickets, make his economy rate explode.
England have just two Tests to get on top of Starc. The first in Brisbane, and the second a likely D/N fixture in Adelaide. If there are no doubts about Starc’s selection by the time the series heads to Perth, it’ll be as good as over for England. They need to plunder him everywhere in those first two Tests to rattle the Australian dressing room.
Assuming he is fit, Starc will definitely be picked for the first Test in Brisbane. A typically lively pitch with good pace and carry, it suits Starc’s natural abilities. However, if England’s top six can manage to negate his influence by punishing his loose deliveries and not allow him to bully an exposed tail end, it will go a long way to denting his confidence. England winning or drawing that first Test match will further put pressure on the Australian selectors, as one more poor performance from Starc will force them to go back to a more economical bowling line up and select James Pattinson (who is no slouch, but is the lesser of the two evils). The Barmy Army may be required in the same way they managed to affect Mitchell Johnson.
It’s not over there though, as Starc is the king of pink ball cricket and will certainly be selected for the second Test in Adelaide regardless of his performance in Brisbane. He has the most wickets in pink ball Tests, and his frightening pace and whippy action are a nightmare to face in the twilight period. England’s ability to withstand Starc’s pink ball bowling will be a pivotal deciding factor in the Adelaide Test.
There are a few important implications for the series if England can knock Starc out of the series by the end of the Adelaide Test.
• Starc creates footmarks for Nathan Lyon. With Starc out of the team, there will be no major footmarks outside the off stump for Lyon to bowl into, negating his influence in the remaining three Tests. Particularly important in Perth and Melbourne which are not known spinning pitches.
• Lack of variation. With Starc the only left arm bowler on the cusp of Australian national selection, it would force the selection of James Pattinson to partner Cummins and Hazlewood - all right arm bowlers who are more similar in nature
If England can get on top of Starc and manage to be 1-0 in front or 1-1 after two Tests, with Starc not selected for Perth and no footmarks for Lyon from then on, that will be a massive advantage to England in regaining the Ashes.
Feel free to add your thoughts and opinions.
And please add some other strategies on how you think England can challenge us here in Australia. Because let’s face it, we want a classic series not another typically limp England performance in Aus!
TL;DR - England need to do these five things to win back the Ashes in 2021/22:
  1. Select Mark Wood along with Archer
  2. Leave Anderson out, consider for Adelaide ONLY
  3. Pick the best wicketkeeper, largely ignore batting abilities
  4. Find a number 3 who can contribute, doesn’t have to be the next Joe Root
  5. Exploit Mitchell Starc, have him out of the series by the third Test in Perth
submitted by arlec66 to Cricket [link] [comments]

Trying to calculate odds of a .400 hitter

With the shortened season, I suspect the odds of seeing a .400 hitter is higher but I'm struggling to calculate the odds of this happening. Any ideas for a better approach?
Here is what I calculated using my scant knowledge of statistics, although the result is probably meaningless.
Charlie Blackmon's stats through August 9: 27H / 59AB = 0.4576 in 65PA
To qualify for batting title in a 60 game season: 60G * 3.1PA = 186PA and 186PA - 65PA = 121PA remaining
In his career, Blackmon walks, gets hit, or sacrifices in 9.2% of PA, so 121PA - (121 * 0.092) = 110AB remaining,
To hit .400: 0.4 * (110AB + 59AB) = 68H and (68H - 27H) / 110AB = 0.3727
Blackmon would have to hit .373 over his next 121PA.
In six full seasons, he has hit .288, .287, .324, .331, .291, and .314 for an average average of .306 with a standard deviation of .020 (calculated in Google Sheets).
.373 - .306 = .067 / .020 = 3.35 z-score (I'm trying to figure out his odds of hitting .373.)
P = 1 - 0.5 - 0.4996 = 0.0004 or 1 in 2500.
(z-score table: https://www.conversion-uplift.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Z-Score-Table.jpg)
Anyway, all I think I figured out is that the odds of Blackmon hitting .400 is still very, very low. Please criticize my crude method.
EDIT:
-Projected AB is likely too low; he averages 3.9 AB/G and will probably take a few games off so let's say 40*3.9 = 156 AB. He is now 31/64 (he went 4/5 today) so would have to finish 57/156 or .365 to hit .400.
-Standard deviation is too low and z-score is too high (because it's not a full season) meaning the odds are much better than 1/2500. Scale standard deviation [not correct way I suppose] by 2.7 (162/60) to .054; .365 - .306 = .059 / .054 = 1.09 z; P = .5 - .3621 = .1379 or 13.8% chance of Blackmon hitting .365 through end of season.
-A better method uses binomial testing (because hit/no-hit is a binomial distribution) which uses a function called BINOMDIST. Using JamminOnTheOne's formula with 57/156 gives a result of .0656 or 6.56% chance of Blackmon hitting .365 through the end of the season.
submitted by ForsakenFigTree to Sabermetrics [link] [comments]

The Challenges of Designing a Modern Skill, Part 2

Sit back down, Wendy’s employee. I ain’t finished talkin’.

Introduction to Part 2

Welcome back to “The Challenges of Designing a Modern Skill,” a three-part series where we delve into every conceivable aspect of skill design, development, and release. In Part 1, we looked at OSRS’s history with skills as well as dipped our toes into the first aspects of skill design, including Complexity, Core and Expansion, and Integration. Today, we’ll continue that conversation with more of Section 3 – Skill Design Philosophy.
However, due to the character limit and resultant awkwardness of having to split this discussion into three parts, there may be several terms presented here which have specific operational definitions that may be confusing and require understanding their origins as described in Part 1. While I don’t personally expect you to have read all of that, Part 2 is built on the assumption that you understand some of those concepts. In any case, I’m pretty good about making sure such definitions are capitalized and provided enough context to be easily inferred. Another drawback of this arrangement is that I must take a moment to subvert your expectations and include a small interjection. This will be remedied in the final product which is updated with the release of each part of this discussion. But for now, here’s Section 4 – Unconstructive Arguments, right in the middle of where Section 3 – Skill Design Philosophy should be.

4-0 - Unconstructive Arguments

With 7 years of OSRS and three failed skills under our belts, it’s about time we talked about what makes a good skill. Now, you may have noticed some popular arguments have been completely skipped, and won’t be regarded at all in the rest of Section 3 – Skill Design Philosophy. While these statements aren’t necessarily wrong or inferior, they are challenging to work with for either a professional (Jagex) or amateur (community) developer who is attempting to express a novel skill concept. They are either antithetical to the design’s implicit argument that a new skill can be good for the game if done right, or simply unworkable criticisms for a developer or design to learn from. Therefore, I have labelled them as “unconstructive” not based on their merits, but on their relevance to helping a skill idea or its creator; do not take “unconstructive” with an absolutely negative connotation if your argument falls into this section. So, let us quickly cover these here before we return to our main conversation.
“OSRS needs a new skill.”
No, it doesn’t, and I think after 7 years of a growing playerbase there would be the general understanding that we don’t need a new skill. Yes, I’d love to have one too, but the game isn’t going to die without new skills. If you’ve truly run through every interesting piece of content OSRS has to offer and are feeling finished, you’ve probably played more than this game’s worth anyway and it’s time to move on or start afresh, maybe even pick up an Ironman. Other good new pieces of content with the same development effort can delay that point for you just as well as a new skill.
”OSRS doesn’t need a new skill.”
I’m in full agreement, but the context of this statement is usually in application as an argument against a specific skill concept. For example, it has previously been used against all three of Jagex’s skill ideas, and in such contexts it’s a pretty terrible argument. Sure, OSRS doesn’t need anything specific, barring a bit of QOL and bugfixing. Rather, OSRS needs something, and that something is any new content to keep players engaged, whether it’s skill updates, new monsters, new quests, or whatever else. But it’s nice to have a balance between different types of content updates, and if a skill concept is solid in every dimension, then why not serve the large community that wants it? Under the Gower brothers, Runescape always released new skills back in the day; the number of skills was never static nor intended to be so. However, if you simply don’t want a new skill, then just say it how it is, because that’s a much more valid opinion than using “OSRS doesn’t need a new skill” as an argument against a specific idea.
”I just want a new skill, I don’t care what it is.”
You probably do care what it is. Everyone has standards; you wouldn’t vote for 360 No Scoping, at least not without Stopping Power and an Intervention. What you probably mean is, “I trust the OSRS Team to give us a good skill,” which is a far more reasonable approach. I know this sounds overly pedantic when the comment should be self-explanatory, but it bears mentioning for the odd person that takes it as literally as I did here, or if someone somehow truly believes in this statement.
”I’m Maxed/an Ironman, and I don’t want to have to train another skill.”
Maxing is a personal goal, not a game requirement. If there’s a legitimately good skill concept, don’t be selfish and hold the game back for personal reasons. We have new quests, music tracks, and even a new diary release, and you don’t see this complaint from most people with a quest, music, or diary cape. It’s almost unfortunate that all these capes come with perks and prestige that might make one feel obligated to re-acquire them, rather than doing so for enjoyment of the content itself. The same goes for Ironman; isn’t the fun of Ironman in simply playing the game in its most barebones form, with all the struggles and strife that come with that?
Conversely, just because someone’s voting no and happens to be a Maxed player or Ironman doesn’t suddenly invalidate their opinion, at least if they have legitimate arguments for their position. It’s a real shame when genuine discussion gets shouted down because of a player’s status when they’re simply expressing a standard for what new content should look like. Ad hominem attacks aren’t going to change their mind, but rather solidify their position even in the face of good counterarguments.
”If you don’t like it, just don’t do it.”
This argument works with smaller aspects of the game, like a new Agility course you dislike, where you’re at little or no disadvantage if you don’t touch it. But something as far-reaching as a skill should makes it practically unavoidable, or at least somewhat stunting if you do so. Take Construction: it’s a pain to train, but if you don’t do it and invest some serious coin into your house you’re immediately at a disadvantage, whereas before Construction’s release (or relevant OSRS updates) you were on par with everyone else. If you want to play efficiently, or simply use your precious hours of living more wisely, then a new skill may be hard or impossible to ignore. And that’s not even taking into account any hard restrictions on other content like skill requirements for quests.
”Can we just have [enter skill here] instead?”
If a skill proposal doesn’t have merit, don’t vote in its favour. But so many players get absurdly attached to concepts that have already been done in RS2 or attempted in OSRS, resulting in a constant rehashing and recycling of old ideas and no freedom for innovation or new, daring projects. Voting against something simply because it’s not the exact skill from RS2 you want, wasn’t one of the previously failed skills, or doesn’t fit your exact vision of the proposed skill is unnecessarily holding back potentially good content. Similarly, just because one skill concept is being focussed on doesn’t mean that your desired skill can’t happen somewhere down the line; there’s no exclusivity principle when it comes to skills, and with the larger development team we’ve received in the past year, this is even less of a barrier.
”I don’t want any new skill/I’d rather we didn’t update at all/A new skill will change the game too much.”
Of all the above arguments, this is one of the few I can truly respect, as it’s practically inarguable and strictly a matter of opinion. If the current state of OSRS is perfect for you, or you want the game to remain closer to RS2 2007, or you don’t trust the developers to do a good enough job with a new skill (I personally place great trust in them), or generally just don’t want to see major changes, I think there’s some real legitimacy to that desire. If you’ve stuck with OSRS despite all the changes since 2013, you probably understand that further change is inevitable and necessary to keep the game running. Just look at late 2013/early 2014’s declining player levels if you need proof of this. But change can occur in many dimensions and doesn’t have to be a skill, as I highlighted earlier. However, this discussion will be presupposed on the idea that a new skill can be a good thing for the game; if you’re wholly against that notion, then you should save your time and read no further.
”I’d rather have you improve existing skills instead of trying to make a new one.”
It might seem unfair to put this under a section called “Unconstructive Arguments” because this is a legitimately good argument. Yeah, I’d love to see many of our current skills get a bit more life, maybe rebalancing Smithing or giving Firemaking a proper modern use. But many skills have received work since OSRS’s release: Wintertodt for Firemaking, Hallowed Sepulchre for Agility, and Motherlode Mine for Mining as a few examples. These updates have brought fresh life and better rewards to their respective skills, even if they aren’t the major overhauls you’re looking for. You could always argue that more can be done, and you would probably be right. Similarly, one could argue that you shouldn’t have bought that coffee this morning but instead have put that cash towards a local charity you’ve already donated to this month. While this perspective isn’t necessarily wrong, there’s certainly a balance to be had between where you focus your efforts and resources, and I would be of the opinion that with all the skill content released thus far, it’s coming to that time to balance it out and have something wholly new. In the end, having a new skill isn’t mutually exclusive to updating current skills, and with the large OSRS Team we have now, we could very well have both simultaneously. If you still hold that opinion, it’s a solid and respectable argument either way, so thank you.
With all that covered, let’s turn to the actual topic of discussion.

3-C – Skill Design Philosophy, Continued

3-7 - Rewards and Motivations

Speaking of reward systems, Game Maker’s Toolkit recently released a video about Intrinsic and Extrinsic Motivations, and it is well worth the watch. In short, Intrinsic Motivation is motivation derived from the act of performing a task one finds enjoyable, like a hobby. Intrinsic Motivators, or Intrinsic Rewards, are often less tangible, materializing as simple satisfaction or thrill. Extrinsic Motivation is motivation obtained from the reward (or prospective reward) for completing a task, like a job. Extrinsic Motivators, or Extrinsic Rewards, are often much more tangible and determined by forces outside oneself. Which is a better motivation? Of course, Intrinsic Motivation is usually the answer – if one enjoys the act of performing a task, one doesn’t need a whip on their backs to keep doing it, and time will fly by faster than it should. Extrinsic Motivation, while it can lead to a paycheque that you can sink into your hobbies, is often much harder to engage with and can easily feel like a slog. That’s why, ideally, you want a real life job that satisfies both Intrinsic and Extrinsic Motivation, a job that is enjoyable in itself but also has decent pay.
As just described, both Intrinsic and Extrinsic Motivation can be good and used simultaneously to create content that players will happily engage with for hours on end. Of course, the line between Intrinsic and Extrinsic Rewards can be blurry, as frequent Extrinsic Rewards can suddenly act and feel just like an Intrinsic Reward, or a Pseudo-Intrinsic Reward (my own definition, do not take this term to a psychologist). For example, if your job is to bag potatoes, and for every 15 potatoes you bag you get a dollar immediately handed to you, then suddenly performing the task can feel enjoyable in itself as you can actively watch your pockets fill. This is a much stronger Extrinsic Reward that starts to resemble an Intrinsic Reward, and will motivate you much further than the distant and abstract Extrinsic Motivation of an hourly wage, even if you would end the day with the same amount of coin.
Right away, we have a number of skills which neatly touch on either category. First, let’s start with Construction, or at least the Construction that you trained as a kid on release in 2006. When you first began Construction, how did you play it? For me, I always wanted the coolest house with the coolest features, and that meant that every time I got to upgrade a piece of furniture, build a new room, or install a piece into a new hotspot, that’s exactly what I did. Those first many Construction levels flew by so fast because I was continually improving and patching up my house faster than a 50-member Fishing Trawler. Every level or two felt packed with novel features, such that I never got caught in a rut of doing the same Oak Larder again and again for hours on end. This was strong design: where training a skill felt like simply “playing” the skill, and the joy was found in the skill’s journey or Intrinsic Reward; levelling felt more like a side-effect of participation. Again, while you could argue that the level unlocks are technically Extrinsic Rewards, their frequency made them functionally similar to Intrinsic Rewards, or Pseudo-Intrinsic. That’s not to say that Construction never had full-fledged Extrinsic Rewards like the gilded altar that young players would dream of, but that felt so far out of focus and didn’t distract from the moment-to-moment gameplay.
Now let’s take everyone’s nightmare: Runecraft. Right off the bat, from levels 1-77, Runecrafting fares poor in the Intrinsic Motivation category: it’s dull and requires a lot of effort to move at a very slow pace. Additionally, the new unlocks that hit every couple levels provide almost nothing of substance to the skill; there are few upgrades to your regular training methods, few interesting new features, and very few new and unique training methods. Your regular gameplay loop, the heart of Intrinsic Motivation, rarely delivers anything new or engaging. Instead, you get to look ahead to a number of Extrinsic Rewards at higher levels, like good moneymaking methods or a skillcape, that serve as a carrot on a stick, making the journey to those destinations feel all the worse.
Finally, let’s take a more nuanced approach: Agility. A lot of people seem to hate it, or perhaps they just hate it contextually. There’s forever been an unspoken competition between players on the same Agility course, one where you must race other players on the same course and laugh at the guy with terrible connection. You start optimizing your clicks to tick-perfection and count the number of times you’ve lapped that idiot, when suddenly you realize that time and XP have gone a lot faster than you expected. But then Jagex does the unthinkable: they release both the Prifddinas Agility course and Hallowed Sepulchre with a simple timer that records your last lap, your personal best, and the global record. Suddenly, you’re racing not only the other players physically around you, but yourself at your top game and a couple mad top-ranking players at their top game as well. In these activities, the gameplay of Agility gives that Internal Motivation, where gaining levels feels secondary to simply engaging with the skill. While competition won’t be the Internal Motivation that everyone responds to, it works for many.
But what about Extrinsic Rewards – should they just be tossed aside? Despite how it’s been framed, Extrinsic Rewards are not necessarily bad so long as they don’t overshadow Intrinsic Rewards, or this imbalance will kill any motivation for participating in a skill. Great Extrinsic Rewards do not create great gameplay and may even inhibit good gameplay from being perceived as enjoyable. It’s fine that Slayer can net you a Wyvern Visage, a solid Extrinsic Reward, because its regular gameplay loop doesn’t require you to get that Slayer level and lucky dice roll to enjoy the general skill. But when Extrinsic Rewards become the dominant reason to perform a skill, like a player trying to unlock Zalcano at 70 Mining by powermining iron, it can easily lead to boredom and burnout.
So, when designing a skill, you must think first about the minutia. Are the gameplay loops you offer engaging enough? Is every few levels presenting something exciting to keep players hooked? Only once you can confidently answer “yes” to these questions should you start looking at sprinkling Extrinsic Rewards across your skill. If your new Nature skill has players studying the behaviours of various Runescape flora and fauna and filling out a nature collection log and players love that collection-style gameplay, then you don’t even need extremely powerful Extrinsic Rewards at high levels to bait them with. Artisan made a huge blunder here, as almost the entire blog was focussed on what Extrinsic Rewards you could drag out of its gameplay and carry off to other skills, rather than focussing first on what the active part of the skill was actually about.
From outside of Runescape, take a hint from the Civilization game series: the games really aren’t about meeting those victory conditions, but rather about feeding that “One More Turn” sensation, where every new turn comes with something exciting while simultaneously baiting you with what’s just around the corner next turn. It’s the driving force behind why so many people keep playing after they’ve formally won – the Intrinsic (and Pseudo-Intrinsic) Motivation of seeing through this and next turn’s developments is so much stronger than the Extrinsic Reward of a victory screen.
Perhaps this entire section could’ve been summed up in a few simple words: Good gameplay is its own reward. But I’m not one for brevity.

3-8 – Progression

What would Runescape be without Progression? While it’s very closely tied to Rewards and Motivations, Progression is more focused on how your gameplay and its fruits change as you grow in a skill. Understanding Progression necessitates an acknowledgement of Interior versus Exterior Rewards, which are both a form of Extrinsic (or at least Pseudo-Intrinsic) Reward. Interior Rewards are those rewards that give a direct bonus to assisting the skill or activity that grants them, things like Slayer task extensions, task blocking, or the Slayer Helm are Interior Rewards. Exterior Rewards are those rewards that take you beyond the skill or activity that produces them, items like Slayer’s herb sack or rune pouch.
Interior Rewards form the soul of Progression and, when played well, work brilliantly as Pseudo-Intrinsic Motivators. They allow a skill to provide a satisfactory levelling process where each step feels like a significant leap forward, where each level means more than just another number. This contrasts with many skills that emphasize minor incremental growth, such as Firemaking’s decreased fail rates with advanced levels. Although such growth is fine in itself and very reminiscent of old school RPG’s (such as Dungeons and Dragons), it’s hardly noticed level-to-level except to number-crunching min-maxers. Though not a skill, the Twisted League did a phenomenal job with its Interior Rewards as Relics. Relics were earned from hitting certain point thresholds, and in turn would directly or indirectly speed up the rate of points accumulation through unique and powerful mechanics. The league made each threshold feel like a Milestone, where every step of growth packed a major punch and changed how you played, where every step felt significant.
As described earlier, Construction was able to take this Milestone approach to its own system of Interior Rewards to such a frequency as to feel Pseudo-Intrinsic in design. While it’s difficult for a skill to have frequent Milestones with the same level of impact as Twisted League’s Relics, it is all the stronger for trying. That Interior Reward impact can take the form of large XP rate boosts, unique activities, additional layers of complexity to basic activities, etc. Similar to the league, don’t be afraid to make your Milestones feel like you’re almost “cheating” at your skill; let them have some real weight. So, when designing your skill, take a close look at your Level-Up Table, and keep asking yourself, “Is each step forward engaging enough to keep players turning the next page?”
Of course, it would be hard to talk about introducing a skill without discussing its Exterior Rewards. Whenever a new piece of content is announced, this is usually where people scroll to first, saying, “The skill sounds okay, but what am I actually getting out of this?” This mentality comes with the previously described danger of Extrinsic Motivation overshadowing Intrinsic Motivation, or the skill’s output overshadowing the enjoyment of the skill itself, and therefore Exterior Rewards must be touched with utmost care. If you’re not comfortable dealing with Exterior Rewards, then leave them be, and let others judge your skill by how Intrinsically Rewarding your gameplay is. Exterior Rewards are an inevitable hurdle, especially once you begin to consider the Endgame of your skill (as discussed in Section 3-14 – Skill Endgame), but they can be insanely difficult to create.
In the end, it’s easy to make a skill important, but it’s hard to make it good. Slapping a best-in-slot as a reward for getting a 99 is the easiest way to make everyone engage in your skill, but people will hate your skill all the more for it. Again, drawing back to Section 3-7 – Rewards and Motivations, allowing Extrinsic Rewards to outclass Intrinsic Rewards will kill any love for a skill.
On a similar note, we should briefly discuss the popularity of Reward Shops and how they are used in skills. In short, a skill that includes a poorly designed Reward Shop will lack necessary Integration and start feeling more like a minigame. Reward Shops can be fun and fitting in an appropriate context, but when it comes to skills, a clear line must be drawn between how they sell Interior and Exterior Rewards.
Take the examples again of the herb sack and rune pouch from Slayer - such Exterior Rewards feel inorganic and arbitrarily thrown in, having little mechanical or lore justification for being served in a Slayer Master’s shop. RS2’s Dungeoneering performed terribly in this regard, offering almost exclusively Exterior Rewards like chaotic weapons. Was there no more natural way to introduce such items through the actual gameplay loops of Dungeoneering? Furthermore, it felt extremely forced to give weapons that had no good lore context for why they were sitting around in a Reward Shop besides “Where else would we put them?” Compare that to the Saradomin Godsword, which is attained from defeating the mighty Zilyana, second among the Saradominists to Saradomin alone. Rather, if you wish to introduce Exterior Rewards into your skill, make them an emergent reward from real gameplay and not from an external shop that’s dissociated from the act of the skill. For Slayer, maybe this means that the herb sack should be a rare drop from Ancient Zygomites, or for Dungeoneering, the chaotic rapier is a rare drop from a high tier boss or difficult challenge room. Whatever it is, focus on handing out Exterior Rewards organically with the lore and tying them closer to moment-to-moment gameplay rather than setting up a Reward Shop to do the heavy lifting for you. Keep the shop if you like, but let it focus on Interior Rewards, like giving you powerful boosts or a good starting setup for Dungeoneering.

3-9 - Solo versus Group

Speaking of good gameplay, ever since the release of Dungeoneering, a lot of discussion has surrounded the idea of skills based around group activities. After all, they can be quite fun. But can a skill be properly built with the Core of it being a group activity?
Runescape was always intended to be an MMO, but its mechanics were not really built to facilitate that idea. OSRS encourages a lot of solo gameplay, and that’s not entirely due to current players demanding it. Take a simple activity like Mining: if there’s a resource spot in demand, only the player with the highest skill, strongest connection, and fastest reaction time is going to get it. Similarly, optimal Slayer training has reduced people’s vocabulary to little more than “hop plz.” Two friends who want to train and chat together are immediately put at a disadvantage in many Combat, Gathering, and Support activities, and even some Production skills, or they simply gain no advantage from working side by side. It’s much rarer for an activity to benefit from multiple players unless the activity was very explicitly made to be so, like certain bosses. When it comes to making a profit, activities that allow competition are generally fine, but it’s frustrating when you’re just going for XP, are settled into a good training regimen, but then get your spots attacked without provocation.
But what about concentrating a full skill around a cooperative group activity? It’s probably obvious that group activities can make for great Expansions, but how about the Core? OSRS’s current skills certainly don’t focus their Core on group activities, and new ones probably shouldn’t for multiple reasons. The first would be that group activities tend to encourage complexity, a concept that is antithetical to the definition of a Core, which needs to be simple and defined for players to ease into. The second is that players dislike being obliged to engage in group activities - if a group activity is made too efficient and central to the experience of OSRS (as skills are), then players will feel forced to group up. No experience is quite as terrible as a group project with random classmates, when no friends are around to partner with, and when the others in your group don’t even want to be in that class. That’s partly why Barbarian Assault works as a minigame with progression rather than a skill; there’s so many people who play for the rewards (Extrinsic Motivation) and not the gameplay (Intrinsic Motivation), and the only thing keeping it from being a bigger problem is that, unlike a skill, the minigame isn’t central to OSRS’s identity. In Dungeoneering, it was easy to tell when someone didn’t want to be there except for the rewards, whether it was their lack of communication, attempt at leeching, long periods of AFK, or blind key hoarding.
Furthermore, a distinct danger of group activities is the encouragement of altscape, or the use of multiple accounts for maximum efficiency. Players dislike when the highest XP rates are attained by paying Jagex another $11 per month - it’s just MTX with another coat of paint. Of course, it can be challenging to avoid altscape when designing activities, but something as important as a skill’s Core should be kept as pure as possible, and designing that Core around group activities is not the way to do it.

3-10 - Bankstanding

Opinions are often split over the topic of Bankstanding skills. Many people genuinely enjoy chilling at the GE or a bank and quietly skilling away, perhaps to watch a good movie on the side, or even to immerse oneself in the community and engage in local conversation (lol). But trying to sell a basic Bankstanding skill is not going to draw much of a crowd.
Once again, this is where Core and Expansion can help your skill along. The Core of your new skill can be simple Bankstanding if it contextually makes sense. If you want to throw in a little spice to your Bankstanding skill without breaking the clarity and simplicity of its Core, you can even make the primary training location a Hub. Smithing feels less like a basic Bankstanding skill because you frequent Hubs to train in, which are either anvils or furnaces. Similarly, Prayer uses a POH as a Hub for the gilded altar. Introducing multiple Hubs across the game world is much better than having just one as it helps with overall Integration.
Also, be sure to include incentives to use one Hub over another, like level-gating, cost-for-speed trade-offs, pure environmental aesthetics, and so on. If you're trying to insert your new skill Music, it would make sense for the Core of composing to be practicable just about everywhere, but it might be more engaging to make pubs a required Hub, where you can only gain the proper inspiration for composition over a healthy Dwarven Stout. As a small point of irony, the distinct advantage that occurs with Hubs being close to a bank has shifted a couple skills in the opposite direction as their Hubs intended (even if said Hubs are gated by higher requirements). Smithing has gradually drawn its furnaces and anvils closer to banks (see Edgeville furnace and Prifddinas furnace and anvil), while Cooking has straight-up surrendered the idea of a Hub once you can enter the Myth’s Guild. The smarter alternative would be to follow Cooking’s lead with making certain Hubs give distinct advantages besides proximity to a bank, like decreased fail rates, bonus XP, or better XP:cost ratios.
Nonetheless, without proper Expansions, your Bankstanding skill will sound extremely dry on paper. Be sure to have a few Expansions at the ready to get people excited to train your skill and to appeal to the crowd looking for action. If your skill Painting has a Core of relaxing by a bank and putting brush to canvas, then give it the exciting Expansion of globetrotting to find inspiration for a commission from King Roald. Again, the Core of a skill is simple by definition, and that can very well include Bankstanding activities, but you need appropriate Expansions to attract players who are hungry for something more.

3-11 - Buyables

“We don't want players to be able to buy their way to success in RuneScape. If we let players start doing this, it devalues RuneScape for others. We feel your status in real-life shouldn't affect your ability to be successful in RuneScape.”
A classic quote from a historical Jagex that had real integrity, a Jagex that just wanted to make a good game. In OSRS we’ve kept a pretty clean record when it comes to monetization, with no small thanks to the OSRS Team.
More relevant for today, the general player perspective on Buyable skills has shifted closer and closer to their perspective on RWT and MTX. More and more, players feel that your skill levels should not be determined by your in-game bank status. People especially hate Prayer and Construction for being Buyables, where your XP rates and net XP gains are almost completely determined by how much in-game wealth you throw at it. But everyone recognizes that many skills do have a completely fair cost to them, especially if a net profit is the final result.
It should be noted that most skills could have run the route of becoming a Buyable if they were so designed. The major Buyable skills are usually considered to be Construction, Herblore, Crafting, Prayer, Smithing, and Farming. An argument could also be made for Firemaking, Cooking, and Fletching, yet they are rarely complained about in the same manner, which we’ll get into in a moment. Notably, most of the aforementioned skills are Production skills. Farming is one exception, but its reliance on seeds gathered from other skills makes its input system much more like a Production skill, while its output still distinctly that of a Gathering skill. Prayer is the other exception, being a combat skill, and one might even be able to argue for Magic being buyable as well. What’s more notable about this entire list is that there are no Production skills that aren’t on it. Is any new Production skill doomed to the fate of being a Buyable?
No, but it can be hard to avoid, at least in an organic manner that matches the style of an MMO. Jagex tried hard with RS2’s Summoning to avoid this. Like Prayer, Summoning was a supportive Combat skill with the consumption levels of a Production skill. It attempted to avoid the sins of its older brother by making charms, its main resource, into an untradeable monster drop. Barring the other resource demands that nullified the intention to make Summoning a complete non-Buyable, charms worked as intended, even if they felt unnatural and forced. However, using that same logic against other Production skills, is there some level of risk to making untradeables so ubiquitous? What if ores, bars, logs, fish, or bones were all made untradeable to kill the Buyable phenomenon? Is pulling the untradeable card on the massive scale of an entire skill really in the spirit of an MMO?
Perhaps we should take inspiration from the Buyables that work in favour of the player. Take the afore-mentioned unique cases of Firemaking, Cooking, and Fletching, which are all Production skills – why do these Buyables work? Rather than rejecting the Buyable identity, they embrace it and yet aren’t universally condemned for it. So, what do they do right? The answer: low costs and/or good Expansions. The essential need for interesting Expansions has already been covered above, so let’s focus on the cost of training.
Having a low cost is an obvious boon for Buyable skills, but it’s not as simple as saying, “Just make the skill require cheap resources.” One must acknowledge that supply and demand can drive a skill to be expensive. Demand will be based on factors like Intrinsic and Extrinsic Rewards, as described last subsection. Some Production skills (like Fletching) cheat this system by abusing High Alchemy values to force profitability, and therefore the demand of their skilling products, at the cost of inflating the economy.
Supply is driven by the resource input from the respective Gathering skill (or other means of obtaining that resource) in terms of effort and time, but also by how valuable each resource is to its respective Production skill. This latter point deserves special focus: a singular resource that provides high XP to the respective Production skill relative to the XP gained in its Gathering is valuable in this regard.
A simple example of this applied well is between Fishing and Cooking. A raw swordfish is quite quick to catch (low time), requires few clicks and little attention (low effort), and provides an output of 100 Fishing XP. The result of this swordfish? In Cooking, the swordfish is quick to cook (low time), requires few clicks and little attention (low effort), but provides an output of 140 XP (or a little less on average if you burn some). It’s easy to see that the overall investment and reward in Gathering the resource was paid off in full or with excess by an appropriately similar investment and reward in the Production. Cooking will usually outpace Fishing because of that XP difference (and how people will play Cooking smart to reduce how much they burn food), which allows for an excess of Fishing resources, which results in a lower cost for the next individual interested in Cooking.
An example of this phenomenon in a bad relationship would be Mining and Smithing an adamant dagger: adamantite and coal take forever to mine (high time), require many clicks and higher attention (high effort), and provide an output of 395 Mining XP to gather enough to make one addy bar. How does the payoff fare in the Production? Smithing the dagger requires both smelting the bar and using the anvil (moderate time), requires a couple clicks (low-moderate effort), and provides a measly output of 100 Smithing XP. The overall investment required by the Gathering vastly outweighs that of the Production, and this imbalance creates a massive demand for Mining resources, and therefore expensive costs of Smithing to accommodate. Furthermore, the huge XP output of Mining compared to Smithing artificially reduces how much one needs to actually Mine to hit their intended Mining level relative to how much Mining needs to occur to hit an equal Smithing level. One will reach 99 Mining much faster than 99 Smithing, but only output enough resources from that Mining grind to feed maybe 93 Smithing. Therefore, if they want to finish maxing Smithing, they have to create a greater demand for Mining resources from other players, driving the overall cost of Smithing up.
How this works would be better explained by an economist who understands much more fully than I the exact terminology and patterns of this phenomenon, or a mathematician who could create a formula for this time-effort-XP Production:Gathering ratio. But putting these ideas into practice is much simpler than its theory: if you want to keep the cost of a Production skill down, or that of any Buyable skill, then the factors of time, effort, and XP gain in the Gathering must be paid off when deciding the time, effort, and XP gain in the Production. Or to break it down even simpler: make sure your Production skill is giving greater XP than your Gathering skill per product, make sure your Gathering skill doesn’t outmatch its Production partner in complexity and intensity, and your Production skill will turn out to be a pleasant Buyable. Yes, this has the possible downside of your Production skill having faster XP Rates than you’d like should one choose to buy their resources from other players, but so long as it’s balanced appropriately, it can still turn out well. Similarly, if there is a concern for the Gathering skill losing profitability, you can always include a couple rare, competitive resources that have significant late-game advantages. But Buyable skills themselves don’t have to suffer the fate of many of their predecessors if they’re planned correctly.

To Be Continued

And once again, we hit another Reddit-determined cut-off that will force the end of Part 2. Again, my apologies for interrupting the narrative flow of this discussion. In this part, we’ve covered unconstructive arguments, Motivations, Progression, Buyables, and more. In Part 3, the last of this series, we’ll wrap up the last of our Skill Design Philosophy and finish with a discussion on how the OSRS Team has dealt with new skills, and how the community reacts in turn. Once Part 3 releases you’ll be able to find it all together over here.
Thanks for reading.
Tl;dr: In this Part 2 of 3, we walked through how skills should be designed in terms of Rewards, Motivations, Progression, Solo versus Group content, Bankstanding, and Buyables, as well as covered some unconstructive arguments typically imposed against new skill ideas.
Edit: Part 3
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batting average formula walks video

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Batting Average Calculator. Batting average is a simple ratio of number of hits to number of at bats (not including walks). Because batting average does not include things like RBI or on base percentage, it’s falling out of popularity for more modern numbers like slugging percentage, but that does not mean it can’t be useful. Batting average is calculated by dividing a player’s total hits by his total at-bats, which are the number of times coming up to bat, which excludes all bases on balls (walks), times hit-by-pitch, sacrifice bunts, and sacrifice flies. The formula is: Hits / At Bats = Batting Avg. That's all there is to it. For example, if Justin Upton gets 155 hits in a season and has 554 at bats, his batting average would be 155/554, or .280. The batting average is usually represented not as a percentage (i.e. 28.0%), but instead as a decimal number with three places after the decimal. A batting average is solely affected if the player gets a hit, and nothing else. The On-Base percentage, or OBP, is affected anytime you get on base, including reaching on an error, a Fielder's... The number of hits scored by a baseball player for 16 balls faced is 10. What is his Batting Average (BA)? Applying the values in the formula, Baseball Batting Average = 10/16 = 0.625 No, walks do not factor. They don't count as At Bats and therefore don't affect the batting average. For example: a player is at the plate 4 times; he gets walked twice and has one hit. The two The formula to calculate. a hitter’s batting average: The Calculation: Add up your hits. Divide this number by your total at bats. This will provide you with your batting average. Example: Let’s say you have 600 at bats on the season. Out of those 600 at bats you reached base successfully by a base hit 200 times. The primary shortcomings of batting average are that it fails to quantify the plate appearances that don’t register as at bats (walks, sacrifice hits, etc.) and it fails to give any weight to the varying types of hits (a single and a home run are equally just one hit). On-Base Percentage (OBP) and Slugging Percentage (SLG) Batting average has been one of baseball's "big three" statistics for decades, along with runs batted in (RBI) and home runs. Fans of the more recent "sabermetrics" approach to baseball statistics criticize batting average for its failure to account for walks. The batting average is calculated in the following way: Batting Average = Total number of hits / Total number of at bats. For example, if a player has 200 at-bats, and has 70 hits, then his Batting Average is 70/200 = 0.350.

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Excel Tutorial 2 of 25 - AVERAGE Formula - YouTube

A little more about what Batting Average and On Base Percentage do and how they relate.Part 1: How to Calculate Batting Average and On Base Percentage - http... He will likely be a top ten pick for his .500 batting average, but on Wednesday night at Blair Field he showed the scouts his skill on the bump as he shut down Lakewood. Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. The logistic map connects fluid convection, neuron firing, the Mandelbrot set and so much more. Fasthosts Techie Test competition is now closed! Learn more a... Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. # Python program that allows the user to enter exactly twenty floating-point values.# The program then prints the sum, average (arithmetic mean), maximum, an... Learn PythonCalculating a percentage example programDownload the Wing 101 Integrated Development Environment(IDE) - http://wingware.com/downloads/wing-101Bit... A Walk Off Hero - MLB 14 The Show AL KALINE: Road to The Show Episode 13 ... Leading The League In Batting Average - MLB 15 The Show AL KALINE: (RTTS) Episode 44 by captain power. How to average numbers in Excel. Microsoft Excel Tutorial 2 of 25More videos at NerdifyMe.com Easy 1/4" seam allowance with high loft batting is explained.

batting average formula walks

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